995: The Year of the Sophomore Quarterback

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode nine ninety five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner. There's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings giving all customers a can't missoffer. Draft one, get one, enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. 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Eligibility destructions applied, void war prohibited. One per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars Headliner contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars entry forre required reward expires in thirty day. See terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL dash best Dash sponsored by dk SO. I've been doing research for the Draft Guide and that launches in less than a month, by the way, But I've been doing my research for the Draft Guide, and recently I completed the quarterback research for the Guide. I analyzed average draft position trends, I looked at the optimal strategy for twenty twenty five, all that good stuff. And for any of you who bought the Guide in previous seasons, I can assure you that this year's version has a whole new way of breaking things down, a better way in my opinion. Now I've got my favorite targets, my favorite of voids at the position this year. But as I was doing my research, I couldn't help but think that it feels like we're on the cusp of the year of the sophomore quarterback. Last season, we saw an unprecedented six quarterbacks get drafted in the top twelve of the NFL Draft. It's a number that we just don't see. Expectations for that twenty twenty four draft class, just based on draft capital were really high. Thus, far from a fantasy perspective, Jane Days is looking like he's on his way to be the next elite quarterback in fantasy. He's being ranked there already. Bo Nix had an awesome rookie season in Denver, and then there's plenty of upside with Caleb Williams, Drake May, even JJ McCarthy and Michael Pennix. I think a lot of people can look at this crop and say that good things are coming. But I want to use today's episode to show you the why why. I think this twenty twenty five season could really be a year where we see many of them, if not all of them, outperform their average draft position expectation. My plan today is just go second year quarterback by second year quarterback, giving you a historical trend or two that's helped predict future breakouts. And by the end, I hope you're seeing what I'm seeing that nearly every one of these guys they seem undervalued. Right now, let's just start with Jayden Daniels. The quarterback position has gotten a whole lot more predictive over the last five or six years. I've said it year after year on this show, but I think a big part of that was Lamar Jay Jackson's twenty nineteen season where he just completely broke fantasy football. He was a later round quarterback that year, but he also showed the fantasy football consensus how absolutely vital rushing is for fantasy purposes. And when you get that combination of good passing numbers with good rushing numbers, amazing things happen. Some people still seem to think that I'm late round quarterback or bust. That couldn't be further from the truth. I've touted early round quarterbacking plenty in the draft guy through the three years of doing it, now about to be four years. Because the same dudes are giving you the same edge year over year. There's a predictability angle to the top of the position. You can't find that elsewhere. It's Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and now potentially Jayden Daniels. This goes back to the idea of the pocket passer trap, the episode that I did last year that I threw back in the podcast feed recently as a rewind episode with the pocket passer trap. The guys you should be really afraid of in the early rounds are the ones who aren't giving you a whole lot of upside with their mobility. Because rushing is sticky year over year, passing isn't. Since twenty fourteen, using fantasy datas ADP. There have been fifty seven qualified quarterbacks draft in the top six of fantasy drafts. Qualified means that they played eight or more games in the analyzed season, as well as eight in the previous season. Now I bucketed those quarterbacks by how they scored in rushing fantasy points per game the previous season, so points coming from only rushing. We've got a bucket for two or fewer points per game, another one for two to five, and then one over five points per game. Those buckets include twenty two, eighteen, and seventeen quarterbacks, respectively. The quarterbacks in the most mobile bucket the ones who scored five or more points per game in the previous season. They give you, by far the best hit rates the following season. Eighty two percent of them scored twenty or more points per game in that following season. That number is just forty one percent for the immobile quarterbacks, and it's fifty percent for the quarterbacks who were somewhere in the middle. And when you look at twenty one or more points per game or twenty two or more points per game, the same trend exists. If you're curious about all that data, it's gonna be in the draft guide this year. Now, Jayden Daniels last year he was comfortably over that five points per game mark with his legs. Judging by history, that gives him an eighty two percent chance to go over the twenty point per game mark this year. That would allow him to exceed expectation. Now, I do think that you could argue that Daniels shouldn't be drafted ahead of someone like Jalen Hurts. Hurts has been so stable over the last handful of years because of his rushing touchdown totals. But there's no doubt in my mind that Daniels belongs in the top four this year in fantasy. There's so much upside and there's a floor that we know exists, not just because he's good at football, but because history tells us so. Now, no one's gonna really argue that we're all pretty bullish on Jaden Daniels. Where I think things get more interesting is with the next tier of players, the next tier of second year quarterbacks, and that generally includes Bo Knicks, kyleb. Williams, and probably Drake May. When you're not getting an elite quarterback in fantasy, that means you're getting someone in the middle or later rounds. You're generally drafting a quarterback, and that QB seven to QB eighteen range. Let's say, I've got to tell you, guys, second year quarterbacks in that range, the range where we see Nicks Williams in May this year. Second year quarterbacks in that range have historically been unbelievable versus their average draft position cost. Now, I keep bringing up average draft position expectation or as you just said, average draft position cost. All that means is what we're expecting from a player in points per game at a certain ADP. I lay this out every year in the draft guide as well. Give you a little refresher. I take average draft position data since twenty fourteen. I look at where a player was drafted and how many points per game he actually scored, and a player needs to have played eight or more games to qualify here. Next, I find trend lines based on all of that data. Those trend lines show us expectation, or how many points per game we expect from a player at a certain ADP. When look at the QB seven to QB eighteen range, Historically, second year quarterbacks have dominated against expectation. Now, sample sizes are smaller here, so take all this with a grain of salt. But there have been thirteen second year quarterbacks drafted between QB seven and QB eighteen since twenty fourteen, again minimum eight games played. Of those thirteen, they've had an average point per game differential versus expectation of plus two point three, meaning the random second year quarterback has outperformed ADP expectation by two point three points per game. For context, no other grouping whether you're looking at year three quarterbacks, year eleven or later quarterbacks, year seven to ten quarterbacks, no other group has exceeded expectation on average by more than half a point. Second year quarterbacks are at plus two point three points. And that's not like Lamar Jackson's second season just completely skewing this data. They have by far the best rate of exceeding expectation or outperforming by zero or more points, two or more points, and four or more points. It's not even close either. Again, we can scream small sample size all we want, and it wouldn't be totally wrong. But something that's been consistent in my research for years now is how the market generally runs away from ambiguity. Whether it's a backfield that seems crowded, or a young player who just hasn't broken out yet. Fantasy managers, they prefer comfort and they prefer safety, but they generally shouldn't. So that's a huge thumbs up for Williams Nixon may in particular, since those three quarterbacks fit within this ADP criteria. JJ McCarthy Michael Pennix. They don't, but we'll get to them in a second. Now, we know that rushing production is really big for quarterbacks. I got some really insane data in this year's guide about it, but previous season rushing points per game isn't only important for the quarterbacks going in the early rounds of drafts. Let's go back to those same buckets that we talked about earlier. Less than two points per game in the previous season, two to five points per game via the rush in the previous season are five or more points per game in this QB seven to QB eighteen range. The quarterbacks who are in that less than two bucket, they generally outperform expectation worst even after the high end quarterbacks are off the board, and thankfully, each of our quarterbacks were well above that mark. Even Caleb Williams, who didn't have a rushing touchdown last year. Once again, it's a trend that favors these sophomore quarterbacks. And then there's the touchdown rate thing too. High touchdown rates often elevate quarterbacks in ADP the following season, even though touchdown rate regresses. I mentioned last week on the Mailbag episode, how top eighteen quarterbacks by ADP who had two hundred and more passes sempst the previous season. Of the players with a six percent or better touchdown rate in that previous season, not a single one exceeded ADP expectation by four more points per game the following year. Meanwhile, when looking at the bucket of players with a touchdown rate under four percent, you get a rate of exceeding EIGHTP expectation by four more points of seventeen point four percent. Everyone else. The large bucket of quarterbacks with touchdown rates between four and six percent, they were much better than the high touchdown rate group. They just weren't quite as good against expectation as the guys who had a touched on rate the previous season under four percent. Caleb Williams was under that four percent mark last year. Drake May was just above it at four point four percent, and while bow Knicks did have a higher end touchdown rate, it was still just five point one percent. It wasn't close to that six percent threshold. So we've got these middle to late round quarterbacks who are second year guys. That's a big boost historically. They also bring a little bit of rushing upside, and then none of them are coming off of seasons with unsustainable touchdown rates. All three of those quarterbacks, Kayleb Williams, bow Knicks, Drake May, they all seem undervalued in drafts right now. And then there's JJ McCarthy and Michael Pennix. Now, honestly, when it comes to the predictive stuff against ADP, the stuff the market just doesn't seem to factor in enough, Michael Pennix is a tougher sell than JJ McCarthy. Last year, Pennix ran for three, three and five yards during his three games with significant passing volume. While he did have a rushing touchdown, He's not someone who's gonna blow up with rushing upside more than likely. Now. One of the key insights that I found in this year's guide is that among late round quarterbacks, the guys selected after QB eighteen, oftentimes going undrafted. Fantasy points per dropback is a pretty fun metric to focus on. That metrics one that naturally correlates pretty well to fantasy production the following season, but the market it largely captures the upside with it until you hit the later rounds Now. I'm using PFF data for dropbacks, and my fantasy points per game numbers are based on scoring that gives four points per touchdown pass and minus two points per interception. But since twenty fourteen, late round quarterbacks who were over point four or five fantasy points per drop back in their previous season they tend to give us far better performance against expectation. Michael Pennix wasn't there. He wasn't terrible within the metric, especially for a rookie, but he wasn't great. His sample size is also pretty small. JJ McCarthy. He obviously had a small sample size too because he didn't play last year. However, you know who was as a beast within that metric last season, Sam Darnold. You know what system Sam Darnald played in the one. JJ McCarthy is walking into that system. Has watched Vikings quarterbacks ranking the top half of the league in two the last three years and fantasy points per dropback, and McCarthy might have more rushing upside than people are giving him credit for. He wasn't close to a zero in college as a rusher, so Jade Daniels probably part of that elite group now checking the box of previous season rushing points per game, Kayleb Williams, Bownicks, and Drake May they each have rushing upside. They're each second year quarterbacks in that middle to late round range that's provided a ton of upside in the past, and none of them had some sort of outlier touchdown rate last year. And when I can't pinpoint a singular ADP trend to give me a huge thumbs up for Michael Pennix, that doesn't mean I'm gonna avoid him. There's just no ADP trends that naturally fit him. JJ McCarthy, he has a system that's provided strong fantasy points for dropback numbers in the past, and he may give us a little bit more rushing upside than we expect. We obviously can't guarantee that though now there are a lot of other quarterbacks that I like in fantasy drafts this year, but there's no doubt in my mind that I'll be heavily targeting these sophomores. I mean, I already am in Bestball drafts, and I doubt that's going to change dramatically when these regular season long leagues really start up. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, you know, for to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone, becoming a Best Ball bro that's going to be out tomorrow, so look out for that. I've got another Perspective's episode then at the end of the week. And don't forget that the Late Round Fantasy Football Show it's happening now each week over on YouTube. That's YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF. We go live every Thursday at one pm Eastern. It's a lot of fun. Check it out, go subscribe there, don't miss it. There's a whole lot of content happening and I appreciate you consuming it. I'll talk to you tomorrow,