670: 10 Trends for Week 1

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode six hundred and seventy of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in Each Wednesday during the season, you'll get this ten Trends episode. It's where I talk about ten statistical nuggets related to different things happening across the league. It's a quicker show than the others that I do each week, but it should hopefully be helpful as you navigate things in season. The trends this week are from last season and beyond because we haven't had any games played yet. But before get into those trends, I want to remind you that the Week one NFL Sunday Million is officially live on FanDuel. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using FanDuel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of three million dollars in cash prizes, including a one million dollar first place prize, and it's all for just four dollars, So head to fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Trend one this week is at the Baltimore Ravens ran sixty nine point seven plays per game last year, which was the eleventh highest total of any team since twenty eleven. Of the fifty teams who have run sixty seven plays per game that have next season data says almost three fewer plays than where the Ravens were last year. Forty four of the fifty ran fewer plays the following season. The Ravens were twenty third in pass rate last year, but they ranked ninth in pass attempts, and it's because of this they ran so many plays. So when you're projecting Ravens pass catchers, keep this in mind. Don't just automatically transfer their target totals from one season to the next. The second turn this week is that Justin Fields finished as a weekly Top twelve quarterback at QB one in each of his final four completed starts for Chicago last year, so we're not counting the game against Baltimore where he got hurt. He averaged nineteen point seven points per game. From week eight onward, again not counting the game that he got hurt in, which from Week eight on was the QB seven in fantasy football. This all happened when the Bears started to unleash him a little bit more on the ground while changing play calling duties. I wrote him up in my draft GUD as a player to target, but don't sleep on Justin Field's dual threadability this year. Since twenty eleven, we've seen one teammate pairing of running backs rank in the top twelve together in PPR points per game with a minimum of eight games played. That happened in twenty seventeen, when Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram finished top eight together in points per game at the position. So we've averaged point one running back teammates finishing together as top twelve options per season over the last decade or so. When looking at the top twenty four running backs in PPR points per game, we've averaged one point three teammate pairings per season, so substantially more, that's where I think we could see AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones this year. It'll probably take a lot for them to be in the top twelve together, though, I do think that they're set up for that possibility, and I think that we could see multiple teammate pairings get to the top twenty four Tony Pollard and Ezekiel elliotor candidates, but even teams like New England with Ramandre Stevenson and Damian Harris. It's at least possible, but it's not a very common occurrence. Keep in mind that if the Packers do end up producing two top twelve running backs, they'd only be the second team to do that since twenty eleven, and it might be further. I just didn't look further than twenty eleven. Now after that trend, you're probably sitting there wondering about wide receivers. So I'll make trend four this week about wide receiver teammates because we've got a lot of teams this year with two really good wide receivers, especially by ADP. Historically, wide receiver teammates do a lot better than running back teammates do. Since twenty eleven, we've averaged one point six wide receiver teammate pairings finishing in the top twelve together in PPR points per game. Again, that's with a minimum of eight games played over the last two seasons, we've seen two pairings each season. When it comes to top twenty four pairings, we've averaged four point three per season, So it's a pretty dramatic difference. Compared to running backs, Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill can still both be plenty fantasy relevant based on history and number two wide receivers who get drafted in the middle rounds they can still be relevant in the right environment, and that makes sense. Right teams usually only have one running back on the field, so that limits the potential for other running backs on that team to score. At wide receiver, plenty of guys are seeing work all game long, so that allows more to score fantasy points. Last year's rookie wide receiver class was really good, and I don't think people give it enough love. We've had one hundred and two rookie wide receiver seasons where the wide receiver saw fifty or more targets that since twenty eleven, so we're already filtering this out to include good players. Getting targeted is a skill, and if a rookie wide receiver is seeing fifty or more targets, that means he's doing a good job. But of those one hundred and two. Two wide receivers from last year's class ranked in the top eight in yards per route run as rookies. Six of them were in the top thirty five and then a seventh one. Rondell Moore ranked forty second, and those numbers don't even include Rashab Bateman, who could be in store for a monster season in twenty twenty two. I'm ready for us to look back on this class and say that it was one of the best classes that we've seen over the last ten or so years. Probably not the best, but at least in the top three. In twenty twenty one, Naji Harris led all running backs in running back rush share, which is the percentage of team running back rushes. He had an eighty five point five percent share that was over eight percentage points higher than Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Those guys ranked second and third. With that being said, if you look at running back rush share per game played, Harris ranks third. Derek Henry averaged almost a ninety five percent running back rush yir per game last year, ranking first, and in second Elijah Mitchell he was at eighty seven point one percent. I'm bringing this up mostly for information sharing, but it's usually tough to maintain super high numbers within any statistic, within any volume statistic, so i'd expect those players to dip a little bit in twenty twenty two, at least Henry Mitchell and Harris Christian McCaffrey has played ten games over the last two seasons. It's why some are afraid to draft him, but there's no denying that he is the highest upside of any player in fantasy football, including Jonathan Taylor. McCaffrey actually played eight of those games without a big injury that sidelined him for a large chunk of a game. So we'll look at an eight game sample here, his last eight games of being healthy. Essentially, in those games, he averaged a little over twenty six PPR points per game. How good is twenty six? Well, as you know, Jonathan Taylor was last year's RB one, He's now the RB one in fantasy drafts this year. Taylor averaged twenty one point nine PPR points per game last year, so over four points per game away from CMC's average over his last eight healthy games. Don't forget that Christian McCaffrey breaks fantasy football when he's healthy. Over the last two seasons, Tampa Bay has led the NFL in pass attempts. That's not a surprise. They have one three hundred and fifty seven pass attempts over the last two seasons. The team in second isn't the Chiefs or the Chargers, or the Cowboys or the Bills. It's the Steelers. I think we're bound to see a pretty big shift in offensive philosophy for Pittsburgh this year without Ben Roethlisberger. It's something that I've talked about all offseason, So keep that in mind when you're analyzing the pass catching situation. There. Trend nine this week is that the New York Giants, with Jason Garrett's offensive coordinator for a lot of the last two seasons, they've had back to back season with the lowest touchdowns per game mark in the league. Like you almost have to be trying to do that to achieve it. Part of the reason I've been bullish on Giants players this offseason is because it's almost impossible for them to be worse offensively than they've been the last two seasons. Even if Brian Dable isn't the answer, he's a better answer than the staff that they just had, because it's hard not to be the last trend this week, it's a pretty straightforward one. Kyle Shanahan joined the forty nine ers in twenty seventeen, and his five seasons as head coach, the forty nine Ers have had five different lead running back rushers for the season. Twenty seventeen was Carlos Hide, twenty eighteen Matt Brida than Raheem Moster than Jeff Wilson, and then Elijah Mitchell. Injuries played some role here, so I don't think he's actively choosing to throw another running back in the backfield each year just for fun. But we've seen time and time again Kyle Shanahan being very open minded about his backfield. He uses players out of nowhere all the time, and that's something always keep in mind. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and fred to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon, which you can find on Lateround dot com of doing weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, live stream q and as, and much more over there each week, but I appreciate everyone listening. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.