Trump Tax Bill Passes Key Hurdle; Traders Await June Jobs Report

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Good morning.
I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
stories we're following today.
Can we begin in the nation's capital, where debate continues
on Capitol Hill on President Trump's multi trillion dollar tax
and spending package. Early this morning, House Republicans overcame a
critical procedural hurdle, moving toward a final vote on the
so called Big Beautiful Bill earlier this morning.
On this vote, the as are two nineteen, today's are
two thirteen. The resolution is adopted.
And debate, as we say, continues, setting up a final
vote later this morning. House Speaker Mike Johnson can afford
only three Republican defections in the tightly divided House, but
he projected confidence ahead of that procedural vote.
We're in a good place right now.
This is the legislative process.
This is exactly how I think the framers intended for
it to.
Work, and House Speaker Mike Johnson predict to the bill
would get across the finish line in time for the
President's July fourth deadline tomorrow. Johnson lost just one Republican
in the procedural vote, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. Now, a
key issue for many reluctant Republicans is the cost of
the measure. The three point four trillion dollars Senate bill
adds more to the deficit than an earlier House version
that clocked in at two point eight trillion dollars.
Nathan House Republicans are projecting optimism. Financial Services Committee Chairman
french Hill joined Bloomberg yesterday, saying cooler heads will prevail
to move the bill forward.
Wave.
This bill is the best the two Houses can produce,
accomplishing both President Trump's goals as well as the goals
that both conservative and more moderate Republicans have.
In the House, despite french Hill's efforts to rally Republican support,
there won't be a single vote from Democrats. Florida Representative
DeBie Wasserman Schultz also spoke earlier with Bloomberg.
If they wanted to extend those tax cuts to the wealthy,
this most fortunate Americans. You know, be my guest, but
don't skew the tax breaks so disproportionately to people who
are already successful and leave the middle class out.
Democratic Representative Debbie Washerman Schultz added that she believes expiring
tax cuts should be dealt with in separate legislation. Despite
Republicans controlling both the House and Senate, President Trump's signature
legislation has run into resistance from cost conscious conservatives and
swing district moderates who worry about cuts to safety net programs.
Of course, caring any changes to the measure would have
forced the Senate to vote again on the bill, blowing
past President Trump's July fourth deadline, potentially adding weeks of delay.
Am On Nathan Meer learning details about another piece of
the President's economic agenda, trade. The President announced on social
media yesterday that the US agreed to a trade deal
with Vietnam. The President says there's a zero tariff on
US products sold to Vietnam, and that it includes a
twenty percent tariff on Vietnamese exports and a forty percent
levy on goods deemed to be transshipped through the country.
Greta Pisch, former General Counsel to the Office of the
US Trade Representative, say the agreement raises a number of questions.
You know, the devil will be in the details, as
they say, the truth social post by the President was
pretty broad brush. It will be interesting to see, you know,
are all products treated the same? Are these across the
board tariff treatments? Are there any non tariff barriers that
are addressed?
And that's former USDR General Council Greta Pisch, China says
is examining the US Vietnam trade deals and would retaliate
if its interests are hurt.
Also happening in DC care and the Trump administrations lifted
curbs on chip design software sales in China as both
sides implement their trade deal to ease restrictions on critical technologies.
The Commerce Department informed the world's three leading chip design
software providers they no longer need government licenses to do
business in China. One of those companies, Siemens, already says
it has received toward full access to its products for
Chinese customers.
Nathan, We turned now to the closely follown verdict of
Sean Diddy Combs. The judge has denied bail for the
music executive after a mixed verdict cleared him of the
top charges in his sex crimes case. Bloomer's Michael Barr
joins us with the latest from New York.
Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Karen the rap music mogul
was convicted of federal prostitution related offenses but acquitted of
sex trafficking and racketeering charges. The jury cleared him of
charges that could have put him behind bars for life.
Defense attorney Mark Agnefilio.
We had a wonderful jury. They listened to every word
and they got the situation right or certainly writing off.
The judge denied Combe's bail, citing a pattern of violence.
The fifty five year old Combs has been in jail
since his September arrest. He still stands convicted of two
counts that carries a maximum of ten years each in
prison In New York. I'm Michael Barr Bloomberg Radio.
All right, Michael, thank you. Let's turn to markets now.
Following another record close for the S and P five hundred,
futures are holding steady as we get ready to wrap
up the holiday shortened trading week. Despite continued uncertainty over
interest rate cuts and the president's economic agenda, investors are
cautiously optimistic. That includes Morgan Stanley, Cross Assets CIO Jim Carron,
who thinks there is upside risk to the market.
When we saw the upside surprise and earnings in the
first quarter. Typically what analysts would do is they would
increase their full year earnings run rates and their earnings forecast.
They didn't.
They actually took it down because of the tariff uncertainty.
There is still a lot of uncertainty relative to the
pricing and earnings going forward. We think that earnings are underestimated.
That's the upside risk that I believe is underappreciated by markets.
And Jim Karen and Morgan Stanley says he thinks the
economy will muddle through tariff uncertainty without a recession.
And Nathan Investors will keep a close eye on the
June jobs are poor today, which is expected to show
a hiring slowdown. Bloomberg's Michael McKee has a preview.
It would take a lot to actually put a rate
cut on the table for this month's FED meeting, but
the idea it could happen will keep traders glued to
their screens this morning. While the consensus forecast is for
jobs growth to have slowed in June, it's not seen
dropping enough to worry policymakers. Unemployment is forecast to tick up,
but FED officials have said they wouldn't be concerned until
it hits four point five percent or so. Yesterday's negative
ADP print, however, has raised questions about whether and by
how much the numbers could undershoot consensus. The FED, though,
has early access to the ADP numbers, and officials haven't
expressed any concern. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
All right, Mike, thank you, and please stick with Bloomberg
for full coverage of the June jobs report. It's do
out at eight thirty am Wall Street time. We'll have
commercial free coverage on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keen and
Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio and the Bloomberg podcast page
on YouTube.
Well, Caramel, President Trump and his advisors are thinking over
replacements for FED charg erun Pale. They're running into a
significt complication. Let's get more on that story now from
Bloomberg's John Tucker. What's the complication, Joe, Well, it's actually
not clear that Powell will leave. Nathan the FED chief,
has repeatedly declined to say whether he's going to step
down when his four year term is chair expires in
May or remain on the FED board. That's something he
could technically do until his tenure as a governor expires
in January twenty twenty eight. At a Central Bank forum
in Portugal this week, the FED chair was asked by
Bloomberg to respond to the barrage of attacks and personal
insults from President Trump.
I'm very focused on just doing my job. I mean,
there are things that the things that matter are using
our tools to achieve the goals that commerce has given
us maximumployments, price stability, financial stability, and that's what we
focus on one hundred percent.
And the pressure's building. President Trump has posted on social
media Powell should resign immediately, referring to him as too late,
and Trump ally Bill Poulty, who leads the Federal Housing
Finance Agency, is called on Congress to investigate pale alleging
without evidence, that is recent testimony to the Senate was deceptive.
In New York, I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio.
Time Now for look at some of the other stories
making news in New York and around the world. And
for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.
Michael, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Federal authorities are investigating
an incident when a small sky diving plane went off
the runway at cross Keys Airport in Williamstown, New Jersey,
about twenty five miles southeast of Philadelphia. The fifteen people
on board the single engine sessa that we're injured, but
for now all survived. Andrew Halter with Gloucester County Emergency Management.
I mean just the fact that we have fifteen people
that are still with us here today, some of minor injuries.
I think it's fantastic and remarkable. I think it's again
a joint effort between probably the pilot's initiative as well
as all public safety providers that were out on sea.
Andrew Halter with Gloucester County says the place lane crashed
in a wooded area near the airport after the pilot
reported engine trouble. Brian Coberger pleaded guilty to murder and
the stabbing deaths of four University of Idaho students. He
entered the plea in a deal with prosecutors that will
allow him to avoid the death penalty. Prosecutors say he
sneaked into a rental home in Moscow, Idaho, and stab
the students in twenty twenty two. In court, Judge Stephen
Hipler read the plea agreement to coburger.
Have you had enough time to decide whether or not
to plead guilty. Yes, you're pleading guilty freely involuntarily. Yes,
given your choices, do you believe it's in your best
interest to plead guilty yes. Have you discussed fully the
matter of pleading with your pleading guilty with your attorney?
And are you satisfied with the advice you've received.
Yes. No motive has emerged for the killings. Fourth of
July holiday traffic has been heavy for days and it
will only get worse. Highways continue to be jammed on
a busy day to travel back car, it's.
Either putting yourself in the right mindset or leaving very
very early.
Sunday is considered one of the busiest days to travel
on the road, and airports will also be packed. Oh good,
Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you
want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and
this is Bloomberg Karen.
That sounds like you're traveling all right, MICHAELM.
Park.
Thank you time now for the Bloomberg Spores update, brought
to you by Flushing Bank. Here's John stash Hour John Gimmerni, Good.
Morning, Karen. The ESPN report is that the Knicks are
closing in on a deal with Mike Brown and that
the fifty five year old former coach in Cleveland, LA
and Sacramento is expected to be the guy who replace
the fire Tom Thibodeaux. Brown would join the Knicks with
plenty of NBA coaching experience nine years a head coach,
thirteen in assistant Yankees in Toronto, and on the blank
of an eye, I mean Yanks for trailing seven, I
think the Blue Jays hit two and three run homers
and a seven run first in love Will Warren. Down
eighth to nothing, the Yanks began a furious comeback. They
trilled nine to seven in the eighth, had a man
on and the captain at the plate.
Trill to Lafield.
City time all day.
The Yankees said, come on the way two one moon shot,
but the bet of judge it's ninety nine on.
The S Network.
The Blue Jays, however, scored two in the bottom of
the eighth, and they wanted eleven nine. They've taken the
first three of the series and they're now tied for
first of the Yanks and Cityfield double letter split. First
Milwaukee seven to two Joey Ortiz and a Grand Slam,
and then the Mets seven three of Brandon Nimo Slam
in La Clayton. Kershaw took them out, eating three strikeouts
for three thousand. He got the milestone on the fifth inning.
He's the twentieth member of the club. The only retired
pitchers with three thousand ks that are not in the
Hall of Fame Roger Clemens and Kurt Shilling and Wimbledon
Francis Tiapo is out. Fellow American Taylor Fritz still in
after his second five victim. John Stashawa Bloomberg.
Sports Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager, and it is going down
to the wire. Debate continues on Capitol Hill this morning
on President Donald Trump's signature tax and Spending cut bill
ahead of a final vote on the multi trillion dollar
measure House Minority The Your Hakim Jefferies putting in his
final words on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ahead
of a final vote later this morning. Joining us now,
Terry Haynes, the founder of Pangaea Policy. Good to speak
with you this morning, Terry. As we continue watching this debate,
is final passage a done deal at this point?
Good morning, Good morning, Dathan. I think it's all but certain. Yeah,
they're probably a couple of deals to be worked out,
but yeah, I think markets are going to see a
final vote here, probably for United States markets open today.
Let's talk about what this bill could do ahead of
final passage. We've talked about the potential deficit impact, potential
debt impact. What do you see as the impact of
this bill?
Fundamentally, it provides markets a lot of certainty. I know
they price it all in, or a lot of it
in anyway, but that should be remarked upon and understood.
You've got a situation where six months ahead of a
deadline that would would have ended the twenty seventeen tax cuts.
Markets now have certainty on tax They have much more
certainty on manufacturing incentives going forward. They have certainty that
there won't be a debt and deficit ceiling issue that
tends to pop up every few years when the previous
one expires and they're in a situation also where there's
more tariff certainty than there was before. That's trending in
the right direction, although it's nowhere near there. So you know,
we're increasing certainty in the for United States economic policy,
and that's likely to be a market positive. Overall, we
had a.
Lot of holdout Republicans on both sides of the Republican
spectrum withholding their votes on this measure. Could we see
the one big, beautiful bill followed by a bunch of smaller,
less beautiful bills to satisfy those factions.
I think what's going to happen, I think it's a
fine question. I think what's going to end up happening
in the latter half of the year is really two things.
One is Congress turns to spending bills after the August recess.
That is going to be a long slog and not
very pretty, not quickly resolved, and we'll tend to confirm
markets views that the political situation in the United States
is not yet ready to confront serious debt and deficit reduction.
But as the Bessett will be out there saying, it's
a process quite a lot. Secondly, the Racassa trip members
the racas Slentris for a lot of it are a
lot of reasons, some political. Some they want more support
from Trump in the midterms. Some like Brian Fitzpatrick, the
sole Republican know on the Rule this morning, you know,
want more clarity about Ukraine, for example, and why the
United States stopped delivering arms, and so those situations will
get taken care of. But I think they're sideshows.
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