634: Mailbag 4/28/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode six hundred and thirty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. The NFL Draft is happening tonight, which means it's time for me to live in my office for about a week. Night one of the draft, I'll be on Fandel's YouTube channel doing a live stream and reacting to the picks as they come. In days two and three, I'll be working on updating the Prospect Guide and I'll be adding some commentary to the Late Round Fantasy Football Discord. I'm planning on having an episode with draft reactions early next week to talk about everything fantasy football and how the draft impacted fantasy football. And the Prospect Guide should be updated and sent out on Monday. That's the goal. That way you'll have what you need for your rookie drafts. That's what's happening on my end. I'm sure a lot of you don't really care about that and just when to hear this mailbag though, I get it before get into the mail bag. I just want to send a last minute reminder about fandels Mock the Draft free Play, a fantasy contest that gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in cash. All you have to do is try to predict the top ten players chosen in the draft in the correct order. Each correct selection will earn you two FanDuel points, while each selection within one pick of the correct selection will receive half a FanDuel point. Earn the most points and you could be walking away with a two thousand dollars first place prize. For more details, visit fandle dot com or download the Fandle Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply. The first question this week is from at Austin Abbott FF. Why doesn't anyone love Darnell Mooney. He's seriously got so much going for him. There's definitely love for Darnell Mooney. I think plenty of people like him. I just think it's a crowded position overall in fantasy football. You can make the case for a ton of guys in his range. At the beginning of the off season, I thought Mooney was all I thought a lot of people would be into him. And then his cost would rise a bit as a result of Alan Robinson leaving town. And I think there's plenty of reason to question whether or not he's got a super high ceiling in fantasy football. Just give him the type of receiver he is, the type of prospect he was in his size. I also thought the Bears would do a little bit more in free agency than they did, maybe not land a stud, but certainly land more competition than Byron Pringle. So I'd say that I've read this situation kind of wrong so far this offseason, because I don't think Mooney's really a sell anymore. Back in January, Mooney had an ADP of wide receiver thirty six according to Dynasty League Football's startup ADP. It's not wide receiver thirty seven, but there are five rookie wide receivers now ranked ahead of him that weren't the player pulled back in January, So maybe we could say that he would have risen to like wide receiver thirty two or wide receiver thirty three, But that's not super significant considering the Bears haven't really done anything yet at wide receiver and they lost Alan Robinson and Darnel Mooney himself is coming off a really good second season. I thought there was a chance that we'd see him get into that wide receiver twenty five range, but it has not happened. So it was a bad read on my part a few months ago. Now I think he's probably where he should be. Potentially he's undervalued. Mooney was not a bad prospect. I mean from the perspective that he wasn't a Day one or Day two pick. Yeah, I guess he was bad. But he had a really high draft capital delta in my model, which means my model thought that he was way underdrafted, and I think people were probably latched onto that capital. The fact that he won one hundred and seventy third overall, that's playing a role in why he's ranked where he's ranked. There's no doubt, and it's fine to do that to some degree. Day three players do not hit very often, but you shouldn't ignore what he's already done and what he's done. Let's be honest, he's produced. Last year, Mooney had a target share per game north of twenty seven percent. And yeah, I know he didn't have much competition, especially if you bid into the narrative that the Bears were phasing out Alan Robinson. But what I've realized is that I can't sit here on this show and always say that targets are earned and then not use that same justification for Darnell Mooney. It's similar to Amen Ross Saint Brown last year. Yes, the competition was weak, but in order to see that kind of target share, it's still impressive no matter the circumstances. And the thing is, the Bears only out right now for twenty twenty two. A wide receiver is through the draft more than likely, like that's how they add more pieces there. They could trade, but they're also rebuildings that's more unlikely. What that means is that Mooney's competition for twenty twenty two it's going to either be a player like Byron Pringle or it's gonna be a rookie or two. And remember the Bears don't have a first round pick. This is why my approach with Mooney has shifted over the last few months, because he really could do something here in twenty twenty two which would allow that dynasty value to increase year over year. Had the Bears showed any signs of wanting to improve at pass catcher with Justin Fields over the last couple of months, I'd probably not feel the same way because situationally, the Bears aren't the best spot for a wide out. The original question here says that quote, he's seriously got so much going for him, which is sort of true because he's been good, but it's sort of not too What he doesn't have going for him is general offensive situation. Mobile quarterbacks are not good for their pass catchers. Justin Fields hit thirty pass attempts in just three games last year. He played in twelve and he started ten. This is why there's some fragility here with Mooney when it comes to competition, and why keep bringing up the lack of competition that the Bear's brought in, Because for a player and an offense like this to actually thrive and give us usable fantasy numbers, he needs to see a pretty high target chare. Mooney's a player who should be able to hit that twenty percent mark because he's good, But to get to twenty five percent twenty six percent, we'd feel better about that. If he had a situation similar to last season, Mooney would need to maintain the type of target share he was seeing per game last year, which is very difficult to do. But given what's happening with Chicago right now in the AMMO that they have for this draft in twenty twenty two, Mooney is set up very well and I'm cool with buying into the short term even with a bad offensive situation, because that situation can change after twenty twenty two, whether it's Fields just getting better as a passer or the Bears actually moving on from him. The market seems to be showing that no one is buying into Mooney being a twenty five twenty six percent target chair player this year. That's why my approach with him has changed, and my ranking with him has shifted up a little bit as well. After more research and thought, I'm gonna have a big rankings update after the draft for the late round Fantasy football Patreon. We'll see where he settles with that after the draft, but I'm thinking he's probably more of a holder, even a buy, than a sell given how the market has reacted us far this offseason. So I disagree that there's no love for Darnell Mooney. There is some love out there, but I do agree that he might be better than the Mooney manager in your league thinks I adjust my stances when I discover new information or learn new information, or honestly, when I just think about something a little bit more and a little bit deeper. I don't see any shame in that, and this is a good example of that happening. This next question is from BJ from Patron says, HEYJJ, what do we do with Dj Moore? We all know just how good DJ Moore is, but we also know how bad Carolina's front office is. Assuming they can make a trade for a Baker Mayfield or a Jimmy Garoppolo, I'd be a little more on the hold side. But even then, with either of those two in town, are we actually holding? I'm just a little nervous and don't want to get caught with a DJ Moore share after his selling window completely shuts. Thanks and love all the great content you're putting out. Thanks. So, I think the way to approach this question and answering this question is by analyzing that last point, because it's your biggest concern. You don't want to get caught with a DJ Moore share after a selling window completely shuts, But ask yourself, how would that selling window completely shut? It's if he has a bad season, right, like a really bad season, because I would argue that even if Moore has a season like he's had the last few years, he's not going to dramatically depreciate in value any more than someone else with his age profile. More is the only pass catcher in the entire NFL with at least twelve hundred scrimmage yards in each of the last three seasons. He's a lock to see a high target share in his offense, and you could argue that it's tough for his offense to get dramatically worse than it was last year. In twenty twenty one, the Panthers were dead last in yards per play, third to last in total yards, and they were bottom five in total touchdowns. Despite that, he was still the wide receiver twenty five and PPR points per game among wideouts with eight or more games played, and according to Dynast League Football's ADP, Moore went from wide receiver nine in April of last year to wide receiver thirteen in April this year. So, yes, he saw a dip in value, but it wasn't that dramatic. It wasn't so insane given what he did last year. So It's hard for me to envision a scenario where he just free falls, or where you'd be caught holding more without any way of getting something for him. He's still just twenty five years old. He just turned twenty five this month. It's fine to think the upside may not totally be there, but you're also selling off a low point Situationally, I don't think he's a bye because, yes, the team just isn't built well right now for him to be a mega producer, but it's built well enough for him to see a large target share and continue to be a steady wide receiver. Two. That's why I don't think anyone with Dj Moore right now is gonna have this big, massive regret after the twenty twenty two season is over. This last questions from at swaves swaversen it says there seems to be a consensus five likely first round wide receivers in this class Wilson, Williams, London, Berks In a Lavin outside of those five, could you see another receiver in this class being viewed as the best looking back? If so, do you think a top landing spot will be needed to do so? So? I'm recording this obviously before Night one of the NFL Draft. I just want to make that clear, but yes, this draft is pretty good at wide receiver at the top. I think those five have a good shot to be big fantasy contributors, but none of them are absolute can't miss prospects, like they don't have some obvious profile like Jamar Chase where they're bound to be a wide receiver one in fantasy football. Maybe the easiest way to put it is that the most likely outcome here is that a lot of those guys are really solid wide receiver twos. There's nothing wrong with that in dynasty, but none of them are locks to emerge as wide receiver ones. It's nothing that can't happen. Of course, I think some of them are more likely than others, like London and Burke's versus the Ohio State guys. The Ohio State guys are likely more floor options than ceiling ones. But it's just that overall, this class seems incredibly solid at the top as opposed to incredibly elite, which means other wide receivers have an opportunity to at least join that group. And I think that George Pickens and Sky Moore are two players with that opportunity. Pickens has a sized profile and he can play that X role in an offense that generates a lot of fantasy points. And sky Moore has the best production profile in this class all well, being an early declayer, and he can play all over the field. He's coming from a smaller program that's not great, but he's got what it takes to leapfrog some of these guys. So those will be my two picks outside the top five, which is why they're ranked sixth and seventh in my wide receiver rankings. If some of the big five just don't live up to expectation and some are just solid wide receiver twos, then there's a chance that we see a player like Pickens or more jump ahead of them once it's all said and done. And I don't think it's necessarily dependent upon landing spot either. It's just how this class sort of looks right now. As I've said all offseason, it's pretty flat at wide receiver among the top eight or so players. This last question is from at dfffan It says I'm sitting here at rookie pick one oh two and I feel like I'm in purgatory. One oh one won't trade and I feel like everyone knows one oh two is a pick nobody wants or slash is willing to trade for. Do we hope for the best with Malik Willis in superflex leagues or trade for a twenty twenty three first plus something else. So again, by the time a lot of you listen to this, the first round is gonna be over. But this is more of a game theory driven answer anyway, So where a player like Willis ends up going in the draft, it's kind of irrelevant. Pre draft. The market makes a lot of assumptions the fantasy football market. In this case, the assumption is that there won't be a clear cut one oh two pick in super flex drafts, but that doesn't have to be the case post draft if a certain wide receiver falls to the right spot, if a player like Willis gets good draft capital, again, I have no idea where he's gonna go. You really need something to go really well for one player to then all of a sudden feel good about that one oh two pick, And maybe it doesn't happen. But think of it this way, the way the one oh two is priced in your league right now, or the way that you're saying it's priced. It's priced in a way where we're assuming there won't be any consensus one h two pick after the draft, meaning the pick is more likely to get more valuable after the draft than the alternative. It can still lose value if things go a particular way, but trading the pick pre draft when your league mats feel this way means you're not playing into variants at all. You're making the same assumptions that they are. Now. I'm not necessarily telling you what to do here. I don't know what's being offered. It's impossible for me to give clear cut advice here. My point is that when you're making trades pre draft like this, always see what kind of assumptions are being made. And if there are a ton of assumptions being made on the negative side, you probably don't want to deal that pick when there's still a chance that it increases in value. Worst case, you're basically exactly where you are right now after the draft is over. Right. That was kind of a mouthful, but hopefully it made sense. The last question this week is for at JK Underscore No underscore kidding It says no rookie packers receiver has gotten more than four hundred and fifty yards since James Jones went for six hundred and seventy six yards in two thousand and seven. Should we avoid a Green Bay rookie wide receiver this year? So? I think data like this is just littered with noise. Aaron Rodgers became Packers' starter in two thousand and eight, so let's use that time as a reference point. Since two thousand and eight, as we know, the Packers haven't drafted a single wide receiver in the first round. They've selected three Round two guys and two round three guys sets five Day two picks across the last fourteen drafts. The first wide receiver was Jordy Nelson in two thousand and eight. He had three hundred and sixty six receiving yards that year. He also played behind Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, two incredibly good wide receivers, so why should we have expected him to have a huge rookie season. Randall Cobb was drafted in the second round in twenty eleven. He had three hundred and seventy five receiving yards while playing alongside Jordy Nelson, who ended u being a hit. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Why should we have expected him to have a huge rookie season? DeVante Adams was drafted in the second round in twenty fourteen. It's easy to forget this because he's so good now, but Adams had a really rough start to his career. He was also playing alongside Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Why should we have expected him to have a huge and monster rookie season. The two round three wide receivers were Ty Montgomery, who wasn't even a traditional wide receiver, and Amari Rodgers, who didn't profile as a good wide receiver at least according to my model, and they were third round wide outs. Let's not pretend there's an investment there, or a massive one if we focus back on those second rounders. Yes, those second round wide receivers eventually became something while doing very little as rookies, but you need context. When they were rookies, they were playing with Pro Bowl caliber wide receivers. That's objectively not what we're looking at right now in Green Bay. I think Alan Lazard is a good value right now, but he's not Greg Jennings or Donald He's not Jordy Nelson. Or Randall Cobb, the guys that DeVante Adams was up against as a rookie, circumstances are totally different. If the player can play in this particular Packers environment, he's probably gonna play. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found and over its follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. Like I said at the top, I'll be getting tons of content done this weekend, so watch out for all of that. Otherwise, enjoy the draft and I'll talk to you next week