784: Early-Season Schedule Analysis

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Speaker 1: This is the l with your host JJ zajj Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode seven hundred and eighty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before get into as show, I wanted to send another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide. It's a two hundred plus page pdf that's filled with strategy related information, my fantasy football philosophy, players to target and avoid, and more. Parts of it are updated weekly and sent directly to your email inbox. You can read more about it and check it out now over on lateround dot com. Some people think that schedule analysis is completely useless. There are so many moving parts in football. Players are going to get hurt. What's the point analyzing a team's schedule. I mean, if that's your way of looking at it, if that's your philosophy, what's the point analyzing anything up? Player's schedule is just another input? Why wouldn't we analyze that? Now? In particular, I look to look at a player's early season schedule. At the beginning of the season, most teams are pretty healthy. We have a general idea of what they're gonna look like once December hits, that can change pretty dramatically. But also how a player starts this season, how he performs in fantasy football, that can really impact the way that fantasy managers view that guy through the rest of the year. There's an anchoring bias that goes on. Not only that, but if you have a player who starts off slow, you might start second guessing that guy at the end of the day. You want players who immediately appreciate in value. You don't want players who lose value. If you draft a guy in the first round and he has a bad first couple of weeks of the season, and then he ends up having a second round value, you don't want that. That's what today's episode's all about. I'll be looking at players who have favorable and unfavorable starts from a schedule perspective this season. That in mind, Let's get to the first player, or in this case, set of players. The Seattle Seahawks passing attack has one of the best early season schedules in the league, and with recent news about their running backs, it could mean they go even more pass heavy than normal to start the season. Seattle gets the rams the rams most experienced corner ranked second to last in PFF grade last year, and Pro Football Focus has the Rams currently as the worst secondary in football heading into twenty twenty three. That's Week one for the Seahawks. In Week two, it's Detroit. Not only could that game get pretty high scoring, we saw a forty eight to forty five matchup last year between those two teams, if you remember, but the Lion's secondary is nothing to write home about either. It's not as bad as the Rams, but it's not looking amazing. Those are two very very good matchups for Gino Smith and company to start the year. They get Carolina next, and the Panthers secondary has some upside, so there is a little bit of volatility there. But then they'll follow that up up with the Giants, who have a beatable secondary. If nothing else, though, the first two matchups for Seattle are looking very very good. Gino Smith was already a late round quarterback option for me, but now you know that you can start him in Week one in Week two without second guessing yourself. Another passing attack to call out here. The Chargers. Their first four games are looking pretty awesome now that Jalen Ramsey is out for an extended period of time. Because they get the Dolphins as their Week one opponent. That game not only could end up being high scoring, Corn of Fandal's sportsbook and has a fifteen and a half point over under, but without Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins secondary doesn't look as tough. With Ramsey, it would have competed for the best in football. Without it, it's easier to attack. After Miami, they get Tennessee Minnesota in Vegas. Each of those teams ranked twenty fifth or worse in PFF secondary rankings entering the year. The game against Minnesota in particular has a shot to be another high scoring one. I don't totally mind Justin Herbert at ADP, but I definitely don't mind his pass catchers this year. As I talked about last week, Herbert's a regression candidate and should see better numbers this season. That's gonna help all of their pass catchers, especially early on in the season. Now, let's look at the flip side, because not everything I'm gonna talk about today is butterflies and rainbows. Naujie Harris. I have some questions around Harris's upside this season, given the emergence of Jalen Warren last year. Many are going to point to Harris's injury last year and the steel plate and his shoe that he played with for half of the year, and if you look at his splits with and without that plate, basically the first half of the season versus the second half of the season, he got a lot better without it. But really, the Steelers' offense just got better. They were probably the worst offense in football during the front half of twenty twenty two, and then they ended last season as one of the best teams in yards per drive. Harris just ended up scoring more touchdowns. That's what it came down to. The truth is his rush share and his target share got worse from the front half of the season to the back half. And you know why because they gave the ball more to Jalen Warren than they did during the front half of the season. So I have ceiling questions surrounding Najie Harris. And then the first two weeks hit where the Steelers get the forty nine ers in their front seven, followed by the Browns who made some key additions this offseason to boost up their defensive line, and we know those divisional games can get ugly. The other point to make here is that there's a chance that Steelers could trail in both of those contests. Fandels Sportsbook has Pittsburgh is a Week one underdog despite playing at home against the forty nine ers and then Cleveland just in general could be competitive this year. There's a chance that we see more Jalen Warren in some negative game scripts this season. That could also hurt Najie Harris. Now that part is not a lock, but it's a possibility. Speaking of gamescripts. In the San Francisco forty nine ers, they've got a great schedule to start the season. Just in general. They kick things off against Pittsburg, which is what I just talked about. It's not a super easy matchup, but it's a winnable one. Their road favorites right now. Then it's the Rams, Giants and Cardinals. The Rams and Cardinals are both projected did not be very good this year, and the Giants could see some regression potentially their win total over on fandal Sportsbooks seven and a half. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think that San Francisco could have a blowout or two during that stretch, and if that's the case, obviously, the offense will probably have something to do with it, but don't sleep on backup Elijah Mitchell. The forty nine ers aren't going to be stupid with their Christian McCaffrey usage, and Mitchell saw rush hears over thirty percent even after CMC was traded there last year. If you're in a deeper format, he may be able to find your starting lineup at times during the first quarter of the season, even without an injury to Christian McCaffrey. Now, most of us don't have massively high hopes for the Raiders and Patriots passing attacks this year, but both teams could struggle to start the season given their schedules. Lumping them together here because I don't want to waste a ton of time on these two teams. The Raiders over their first two weeks get Denver and Buffalo. Denver as a top five secondary heading into twenty twenty three, and Buffalo at least has pieces, especially if they can get Tredevius White back to form. We could see a negative game script against Buffalo for Vegas, and that'll keep some of their pass catchers relevant from a volume perspective, But there's no doubt that we should be a little bit nervous for the start of their season. And then with New England, they just play in a tough division for passing. They'll kick off their season against Philadelphia and their strong corners, and then they get Miami, the Jets, and then the Cowboys. Now without Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins will be easier, but those units are all basically candidates to be the top secondaries in football this year. I'd expect more of a ground and pound approach from the Patriots to start the season. Now. I know reports have been favorable with Javonte Williams of late, but there's still a very very good chance that he's not one hundred percent to start the season and even beyond. And that's huge for newcomer Samaje p Rand. We've seen Sean Payton split up his backfields historically anyway, but p Ryan could easily be the one a in that backfield to start the year. And Denver has some really winnable games. In weeks one and two, they get Vegas in Washington. The average of those two teams win totals on fandol's Sportsbook shows that Denver has the easiest schedule in the league through week two, and it's one of the easiest through Week four with them then adding Miami and Chicago to the mis. No, I do think that Miami and Chicago are far harder matchups than what they're gonna face in weeks one and two. So weeks one and two are what I'm really focused on here. If Denver hits some positive game scripts, that's gonna favor p Rand tremendously. It's one reason why I think that he could be a really nice target for anyone going with a zero RB or a hero RB build in their season long league. It's tough to talk about schedules without mentioning the Saints this year. New Orleans is not facing two tough quarterbacks at all in twenty twenty three, Like it's pretty wild. Some of that has to do with the division that they're in, but even their non divisional opponents don't have scary quarterbacks. Now, obviously quarterbacks aren't everything, but they control the most in a football game. They move lines, they're the most important piece. The Saints get Ryan Tannehill in Week one, then it's rookie Bryce Young and his second career game in Week two. Then it's Jordan Love, who has plenty of question marks. Then it's whoever Tampa Bay is trotting out there for week four. Then it's Mac Jones, C J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, and Kirk Cousins. The first six weeks of their season are against completely unproven quarterbacks. That could bode very well for the rushing attack because positive game scripts will help these running backs get on the field and see more volume. Depending on their role, of course, but specifically in this case, you have to wonder if the the Saints give rookie Kendre Miller a little bit more run to close out some of these games. If indeed they do see positive game scripts, and if he ends up shining, you have to then wonder if they want to make him a bigger part of this offense. That's not an unusual path for a rookie to go down. Kendrey Miller's a nice late round target, just in general, given he's a rookie, given that Alvin Kamara suspension, and given the fact that Jamal Williams is good but not great, He's done an unbelievable running back to overcome and to me, this schedule is a nice cherry on top. The last player I want to touch on today Derrick Henry. Now I've warmed up a bit to Henry this offseason because of the way the market has shifted in fantasy football. You've got things in reports going on with the Jets and the Patriots backfield to maybe make you feel a little less bullish on Breise Hall or Ramandre Stevenson. You've got holdouts like Josh Jacobs. All that does is push those players down draft boards, and it pushes up players like Derrick Henry. So I went from being below market with Henry to now being at market with him. But Tennessee has a rough start to their season schedule wise. The Saints are their opponent in Week one, but it's in New Orleans. The Titans are underdogs. That game has just a forty one and a half point over under according to FANDLS Sportsbook. And then it's the Chargers, Browns, and Bengals. They get the Colts in Week five, and then it's the Ravens in Week six. Those are games where there's a real possibility for negative game scripts. And even though Derick Henry saw his best target share per game rate of his career last year. We know that positive game scripts are better for Derrick Henry than negative ones, so to me, he may end up being more of a bi low candidate after the first handful of games this season. Now, those are just some of the players in situations that stood out to me when doing this analysis. There are undoubtedly more, but hopefully this made you look at players maybe a little bit differently. Not that you should solely draft off of this information. Please don't do that, but it's good info to keeping your bad That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and do Fritz follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out the draft guide everyone otherwise. I'll be back in your ears later this week with the Mailbag Show.