572: 15 Transactions for Week 9

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandle and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and seventy two of the Late Round podcast many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the transactions this week, I want to remind you that fandal is giving new users an exclusive offer to play NFL Daily Fantasy for free all season long. All you have to do is sign up for fandle Daily Fantasy and you'll receive one free voucher for each remaining week of the NFL season. You'll get your voucher upon sign up to fandle Daily Fantasy, and vouchers will automatically apply to each weekly entry. Head over to fandle dot com and sign up to play daily Fantasy football. Eligibility restrictions apply new users only. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Let's get to these transactions at Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson. So the big news that dropped on Monday was that Derrick Henry has a foot injury. He's reportedly going to be out between six to ten weeks. So obviously the Titans need to fill this hole. Because Derek Henry was averaging over twenty seven rush attempts per game. Teams usually divvy that up between two or three running backs, but they were just giving it all to Henry. I'm now expecting the Titans to split their backfield up. Let's look at Jeremy McNichols. First. He's the guy who was on this Titans team before Monday, and he's been utilized as a pass catcher out of that backfield throughout this season. He actually has a ten point six percent target show this year, and he's had some games where that numbers spiked. He's had some decent enough outings in PPR formats this year. Now, meanwhile, the Titans also signed Adrian Peterson on Monday. If I'm forecasting this backfield, my assumption is that Peterson's going to be the early down guy in the goal line guy, with Jerry McNichols seeing some of that early down work because again, we shouldn't expect eight Adrian Peterson to see Derek Henry's workload and keep in mind that Peterson's not that much of a pass catcher. He's never been much of a pass catcher, so he sort of compliments Jerry McNichols pretty well. Both players need to be added off the waiver wire this week because we don't know exactly how this is going to really shape up. But I think I would prefer McNichols over Peterson because most of you guys are playing in PPR formats and McNichol should maintain that receiving work all while seeing more early down work. Peterson, though, should be added. Still, if there's anything that he's taught us through the years, it's to never count him out. By Leonard Fournette. So Leonard Fournette had a down game in Week eight. He carried the ball just eight times for twenty six yards. He did see five targets, but he didn't do a whole lot with him. I'm calling him out this week just to say that he's still a high end option at running back. Don't worry. He's seen a double digit percentage target share in all but one game this year, and his running back rush share is still a solid sixty five percent. It was a tough matchup against the Saints. The Saints have been good against running backs this year, and they've been good against running backs over the last few years. The other thing to keep in mind with Tampa Bay is that they're playing a little bit above expectation and pass to rush touchdown ratio. This year, they've thrown for significantly more touchdowns than they've run for. They have twenty five passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns. That gives them one of the highest pass to rush touchdown ratios in the league. Now, I get it, look at their personnel. Of course that's going to be the case. But they also had four passing touchdowns to zero rushing touchdowns this past week. Moving forward, that number is not gonna be like that. We even saw that after the first couple of weeks of the season. Now I get it, Tampa Bay's doing something that we historically just haven't really seen. We can't really apply history to this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. But we also shouldn't assume that they're gonna throw for every touchdown from here on out. So it's another good reason to buy Fournette after this down game. Add Jordan Howard and Boston Scott. So it was a bad week for Kenneth Gainwell and for anyone who added Kenneth Gainwell entering Week eight. If you look at the Philadelphia box scorer, you'll see a pretty big split with that Eagles backfield with Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Jordan Howard. Gainwell actually saw the most rush attempts in that game against Detroit on Sunday. He had thirteen, Boston Scott at twelve and Jordan Howard at twelve. But twelve of Gainwell's thirteen rush attempts came in the fourth quarter of that game, and if you watch that game, the Eagles were way way ahead. It was a super super positive game script aka garbage time. And not only that, but Gainwell failed to see a target for the first time all season on Sunday. But I think the big takeaway here is that game script matters a lot. That game script allowed both Boston Scott and Jordan Howard to come through a top fifteen Fantasy performances at running back. Boston Scott was a little bit more involved than Jordan Howard was because he had a target, but both players were involved. In the first half, Boston Scott got the start in Jordan Howard saw a lot of work in this second quarter. But I think we can look at this and say this is pretty unsustainable. The Eagles aren't gonna face the Lions every week, so we can't expect them to play with the lead like they did on Sunday. In other words, we should not expect Jordan Howard and Boston Scott to keep up this pace. Now, if the question is who should you add off the waiver wire, I would say Boston Scott first. He was seeing work at the beginning of that game. But I do think in deeper formats you can still add Jordan Howard as long as Miles Sanders' sidelined. And for the record, don't just automatically drop Kenneth Gainwell either. Philadelphia didn't have to play catch up against Detroit, they might have to against the Chargers in Week nine. This backfield really is a mess until Miles Sanders comes back. If you recall a couple of weeks ago, I talked about Miles Sanders being a by candidate in fantasy football, and then he got hurt. But I still kind of feel that way, because what if this is the game that the Philadelphia Eagles coaching staff sits back and they say, we got to give our running backs a little bit more action. That's gonna help Miles sands down the stretch. And the Eagles have a very very good schedule. So I think Miles Sanders is still kind of a bye. If you want an extra transaction within this transaction, I just inceptioned you hold or by DeVante Smith. So, speaking of the Eagles, let's talk about Deavonte Smith. He's averaged just six point two PPR points per game over his last three contests, and he's coming off a game against Detroit where he catches one of his three targets for fifteen yards. Now, if you want some good news, he's still seeing a good target share. During this three game stretch. His target chair per game has been twenty one and a half percent. That's not far off from a season long twenty two point eight percent share. Now, obviously, in an offense like Philadelphia, you're not seeing as good of targets as an offense like Tampa Bay. A twenty two percent target chair in Tampa Bay is a lot more valuable. I'm just showing you that DeVante Smith has been involved within his offense and that's a good thing. Now if you have Devonte Smith, the next couple of weeks are going to be tough. Get the Chargers in Week nine and then the Broncos in Week ten. Those are two teams that look really good against wide receivers according to my schedule adjusted Fantasy points allowed method. After that, though, they don't have a single tough matchup for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed through the end of the fantasy season. And in weeks fifteen and seventeen, two very very important weeks for fantasy football, Philadelphia faces Washington. That's a team that currently ranks is the most advantageous matchup for opposing wide receivers. You might not want to start DeVante Smith over the next couple of weeks, but he's got a chance to be usable down the stretch, especially in deeper formats. That's why he's both a hold and a bye by Brandon Ayuk. So context is always important with every single transaction. That's why I talk about every transaction and that's no different with this one. Don't trade anything for Brandon Ayuk. He still has not been consistently productive. He's only seen ten point eight percent of San Francisco's targets this year, but the peripherals are getting better. Ayuk played eighty seven and a half percent of the forty nine er snaps on Sunday, that's a season high. He saw twenty five point nine percent of the team's targets, that's another season high, and he converted his seven targets into forty five receiving yards, which you guessed it another season high. The fact that he didn't blow up statistically, that's a very good thing if you're looking to trade for him, because his managers may not see the upward trend in usage and they might just look at production, and that's not the proper way to evaluate these things. Usage is everything, and as long as Ayuk's workload is trending in the right direction, we should be willing to send off some bench assets to get him. We've seen him be a productive wide receiver in the past. The fact that you don't have to give up that much to acquire him and we're seeing this usage trend up, that's a good thing. Add Carlos Hide. So there's a chance that we don't see James Robinson in Week nine because of a heel in injury that he had against the Seahawks, but the good news is that it sounds like it's not that serious. You still want to get Carlos Hide though, just in case, because he had nine of Jacksonville's eleven non James Robinson running back rushes in that game against Seattle, and he had a fifteen point seven percent target share. If Robinson misses time, high could be a decent flex play based on volume alone, even in a tough matchup against the Bills at Jarrett Patterson. So Antonio Gibson wasn't on Washington's Week eight injury report for the first time in weeks, so of course in week eight that was the week where he hit a season low thirty six percent running back rush share. Fantasy football can be so freaking annoying. Sometimes Washington has a buy in Week nine, so hopefully Gibson can sit back, relax and rest. He needs to get healthy. But it's still worth adding Jarrett Patterson because he handled half of Washington's running back rushes against Denver on Sunday. And you never know with injuries. What if this Gibson injury continues to linger, and what if Washington keeps losing if they keep losing. Why would they throw their stud running back on the field and sacrifice his future. There is some worry with Gibson right now. There's a lot of worry. That's why you're adding Patterson. Hold Michael Carter. So, I think the initial reaction to Michael Carter's monster game on Sunday would be to sell him. He had thirty two PPR points against the Bengals. He's not gonna do that again this season, more than likely. But that's easy. It's easy to say, go sell Michael Carter. That's not the way the fantasy football world works. No one is sitting there saying, I really really want this New York Jets running back. So in a hypothetical world, sure sell Michael Carter. He's seen a twenty five percent target chair per game over his last two He's had twenty three targets over his last two games. There's almost a zero percent chance. In fact, I'll just say there's a zero percent chance that he's gonna maintain that pace through the rest of the season. But no normal sale Yane fantasy manager is making that assumption. And to be honest, even if we accept that receiving volume is gonna dip, Michael Carter can still be usable through the rest of the season. Since Week two, Carter's average a running back rush here per game of sixty eight and a half percent. That's pretty good. Before these last two weeks where he's seen an inflated target share, He's been getting roughly nine percent of New York's targets. That's not terrible. It's not like his usage was zero, and then he had this blow up game. And not only that, the Jets have been much less of a dumpster fire offensively. They scored a grand total of two offensive touchdowns across their first three games this year, but they've scored eleven in their last four. We want attempts and we want targets in fantasy football. Michael Carter is getting those things. So, despite coming off this big game, because the market's likely not gonna be there for Michael Carter. So despite coming off this game, I think he's more of a hold at Jamal Agnew. So on last week's Sleeper Show, I talked about Jamal Agnew. He came through. He had a six catch thirty eight yard, one touchdown performance against Seattle. The Jags have now been without DJ Shark for three weeks. In those three games, Agnew is averaged a target share per game of twenty point eight percent while leading the Jacksonville Jaguars and targets. The volume alone means that Agnew should be added by Jarvis Landry. Look, Jarvis Landry's boring. He's just moderately productive, but he is inexpensive. He's been back from an injury for two weeks now. In those contests, he's seen eighteen targets and a twenty eight point six percent target share per game. He has been super productive in fantasy, with just eighteen point seven total PPR points over those two contests. But Cleveland also was facing Denver and Pittsburgh. Those are two teams that at least have defensive pieces that can stop opposing offenses, and one of those games was with case Keenum. The Browns also keep scoring their touchdowns via the ground at a pace that they're likely not going to maintain. Past to rush touchdown ratio this year is point five that's tied with Chicago for the lowest in the league. The smallest ratio that we've seen over the last decade is point five to nine, and the average across those ten seasons is two point two to three. If in when Cleveland's pastor rush touchdown ratio regresses, it's gonna benefit the pass catchers on that team. So I think that Landry should be able to give you wide receiver three tight numbers in PPR formats as long as he's healthy, and sometimes that's fine for deeper rosters. Ad Pat Fryarmouth. So, Friarmuth was another player that I talked about on the Sleeper Show and he also came through. He saw twenty percent of Pittsburgh's targets this past week without Eric Ebron in that lineup, and he turned that into four catches for forty four yards in a score. He now has back to back games with at least an eighteen percent target share and he played at least sixty percent of Pittsburgh snaps in both of those games. And those games just happened to coincide with Juju Smith Schuster's season ending injury. Now, friarm is not running the same number of routes as like a Chase Claypolo or Deontae Johnson, but he's a big time red zone threat. He should continue to see opportunity with Juju Smith Schuster out for the year, so I think he's a priority for teams who need tight ends. This week, sell Noa Fan no offense actually having a pretty strong year. He's top ten and PPR points per game at tight end, and he's seen nearly twenty percent of Denver's targets throughout the season. But I would be lying if I sat here and told you that I'm not nervous about Jerry, Judy and Alberta returning to that lineup because they're healthy again. In Week eight, with both Judy and Alberto back, Fan saw his lowest target cherri since facing Pittsburgh in Week five, and he also ran a route on seventy percent of Denvers dropbacks. That's the lowest rate of the season for him, and I think that route participation that's key. With Alberta healthy. Weeks one through four, Fan average a routes per dropback rate of seventy six point three percent. That shot up to eighty eight percent without Alberdou and then it came crashing back down this past week when Alberdau returned. I think it's just going to be tough for Noah Fan to maintain that twenty percent target chair that he had been seeing over the last month. If you compare him with a bench asset to upgrade the tight end position, I would do it by Derek Carr. So I don't typically trade for quarterbacks in fantasy football, especially non elite quarterbacks, but some of you might be in a tough spot at the position and Derek Carr might be able to help. Carr has been a top fifteen fantasy quarterback in points per game this year, and I think he's going to see a boost over the next handful of weeks because of Vegas's schedule. Over the team's next seven games, the only opponent that ranks in the top half of the league and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks is Dallas. The Raiders have plus matchup after plus matchup after plus matchup for Derek Carr. Go google their schedule right now, go check it out. It's crazy. So I would not be surprised if Derek Carr is a top ten option over the next month and a half as a result. Add Taysom Hill. Jamis Winston tore his ACL on Sunday. He's done for the season now. Taysom Hill has been out the last few weeks with a concussion, but he could be back in Week nine. Perfect timing, because if that's the case, Hill becomes a really intriguing fantasy football option. He started four games last year. In those games, he averaged over twenty one fantasy points per game, and he scored no fewer than seventeen and a half points. He was QB thirteen or better in weekly scoring every single week, and we know it's because of what he can do with his legs. He's got that cheat code element to his game. During his four starts, he averaged fifty two rushing yards per game and he found the end zone on the ground four times. And in Week nine, the Saints get the Falcons. As we all know, Atlanta is one of the better matchups for quarterbacks this year. Add the Miami Dolphins defense, the Dolphins are a good streamer this week. According to Fandal Sportsbook, Miami's a seven point favorite against you Houston. They're likely going to be playing with a positive game script, and Houston's been a top ten team for opposing defenses when looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed. Now we'll see what happens with Tyrod Taylor. Maybe he starts this week, maybe he's back, But I still think regardless, miamis a pretty strong waiver wire option. The sixteen transaction this week that you can't get my fifteen transactions call him over on number five dot Com is to add to a tongue of Ioloa. Tua's another viable quarterback streamer this week because he faces the Texans and he's actually not been that bad in fantasy since returning from injury. Over the last three weeks, he scored twenty one point four, twenty six point five, and fifteen point two standard Fantasy points. And that lower total of fifteen point two that came against one of the toughest opponents in the league and the Bills Houston is not that Houston's been a top ten opponent for quarterbacks this year, and Tua has shown us that he has a ceiling when facing these bad opponents. That's what we saw against Jacksonville and at SO. I think he's a strong streaming option this week. If you're needing a quarterback, I'd prefer Taysom Hill if we knew that he was getting the start, but two is a pretty safe choice. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast. Make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, talk to you tomorrow