447: 15 Transactions for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J zacher.

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Speaker 2: Resa, what's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyese and the editor in chief at Fandel and at number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and forty seven of the Late Round podcast on the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: He's good.

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Speaker 1: I just think that right now is officially the time to sell. Before it was a little bit iffy because there were good matchups. Now I'm not so sure because moving forward, Robinson's gonna get Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Minnesota, Tennessee, Baltimore in Chicago, and the Titans, Ravens, and Bears matchups are coming in the fantasy playoffs. Let me put this into perspective. From weeks one through ten, Jacksonville's opponent's average rank and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to running backs was ten point three In other words, their average opponent ranked as the tenth most advantageous matchup for running backs in fantasy football. So far this season, Robinson's faced each of the five easiest opponents within that statistic. That means that half of his games this year have been cakewalks, more than half. From weeks eleven through sixteen, that ranking goes from about ten to twenty one and a half. There's only one top ten matchup remaining for James Robinson from here on out. It's against the Titans, and in the fantasy playoffs he gets the Ravens and the Bears. Now there's a chance that your league mates don't realize how good James Robinson has been. If that's the case, you can't sell him. Because once again, I'm not sitting here saying that Robinson is going to be useless from here on out. I'm not saying that you absolutely need to sell this guy. I have him on a ton of rosters this year. I'm not giving him up for nothing. But I think given this upcoming schedule, there's a lot of reasons to worry. I think that everyone should just be prepared for what's to come or what could come.

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Speaker 2: Add Michael Pittman.

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Speaker 1: So we finally got the Michael Pittman Junior breakout game, and last week's Thursday Night game, he hauled in seven of his eight targets. He had one hundred and one receiving yards. He ended the game with a twenty two point two percent target share and in his previous game it was seventeen and a half percent. Those are back to back games with pretty good target share marks, so I think because of that he's worth an AD. And it doesn't hurt that Indianapolis wide receivers have a pretty favorable schedule through the end of the fantasy season. They only have one matchup, which comes this week against a team that ranks unfavorably in adjusted points allowed. Hold Travis fulgam So I sent a tweet out on Sunday night showing Travis Folgum's target shairs by week. He had a thirteen point nine percent target share this past week for Philadelphia, but he was averaging a target chair above twenty nine percent in his previous four outings, and people were really really upset with how he performed this past week. They were mad at that tweet, not at me, but just the numbers because the way they see it, and I understand it. But the way that they see it is that Jalen Rager's back in healthy, Dallas Goddard's back and healthy. Now all of a sudden, Travis Folgum doesn't matter, but guys, mediocre and average games happen all the time for wide receivers. And remember Goddard and Reger played back in Week eight before the Eagles by and in that game, Fulgham was the leader in targets in that Eagles offense. And as I've noted on this show over the last month plus, the Eagles have a really favorable schedule moving forward. Of course, we need Carson Wentz to play better, but the schedule is there. It's one of the five best when looking at adjusted points allowed. So don't give up on Travis Folgum just yet. Add Jalen Rager. Now to this point, you still want to add Jalen Rager. I cannot believe that Reger is rostered in only twenty six percent of Yahoo leagues right now. He saw a twenty three percent target chair in his game back back in Week eight, and in this past week he had nineteen percent of Philadelphia's targets, And like I, just talked about with Fulghum, the Eagles schedule moving forward is pretty favorable. I know that I must sound like a broken record because I've talked about Jalen Riger for weeks on this show. But you should be adding him at the very least. He should be sitting on your bench because right now I would probably consider him the number one target in this Eagles passing attack by Jarvis Landry. So OBJ has now been sidelined for two games, and in those two games, Jarvis Landry has target shares of forty four percent and twenty six point three percent. That's a target share per game average of thirty five percent. With Odell Beckham, his target share per game was nineteen and a half percent. The reason he hasn't produced is because the entire Browns offense hasn't produced. And there's reason for that too. It's the weather. A couple of weeks back, the Raiders in the Browns combine to score twenty two points in a windy game in Cleveland. This past week, the Texans and the Browns combined for seventeen in a really windy game in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield's averages one hundred and twenty seven yards per game during this timeframe. We can't expect Jarvis Landry, despite his target share, to come through with these huge fantasy performances when the passing attack isn't.

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Speaker 2: Doing a whole lot. But there's a reason that.

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Speaker 1: The passing attack isn't doing a whole lot. So as long as the weather cooperates, I really like Landry's outlook from here on out. The Browns don't only have a decent rest of season schedule for wide receivers, but in the fantasy playoffs in weeks fifteen and sixteen, they get the New York teams. Those are top half matchups and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Sell Kareem Hunt. All right, So Nick Chubb returned on Sunday. We all know that because he failed to score a touchdown at the end of that game. He went out of bounds at the one and I'm not tilting. I promise I'm not tilting. But in Sunday's game, Kareem Hunt handled half of the team's running back rushes and he also saw over twenty one percent of the team's targets. That allowed him to post a top fifteen performance at the running back position. But look, I'll be honest, I'm a little bit skeptical that that's sustainable. So just as a refresher, Chubb played all of weeks one through three, and then he got injured in Week four. So we now have four total games of Nick Chubb this season with Kareem Hunt because we're gonna throw out that Week four game. In those four games, Hunts average a forty five point three percent running back rush share and a fifteen point three percent target share. Now, outside of those games, and again we're gonna ignore the game where Nick Chubb was hurt, those numbers are seventy seven percent and twelve percent. So basically, his running back rush here is significantly higher without Nick Chubb. That's not a surprise because Nick Chubb plays on early downs. We know he's arguably the best rusher in the NFL. And then when you look at the target share difference, there's about a three percent difference per game. Given the small sample sizes that we're working with, that's not all that significant. I'm not really putting a lot into that. But what is kind of surprising is that Hunt's averaging about three more PPR points per game with Nick Chubb than without Nickchubb this year. So I think the question is does efficiency have something to do with this? Is Kareem Hunt performing so well with Nick Chubb because he's been more efficient? And the answer to that is yes, technically he has been more efficient. He's averaging five point three yards per carry with Nick Chubb this season and three point nine without Chubb. But again, guys, the sample sizes are pretty small. I don't think that we can just sit back and say Kareem Hunt is much more efficient with Chubb than without Chubb, Therefore he's going to be able to sustain this production. I don't really buy into that. Again, I think the sample size is too small. And not only that, but fantasy football is about volume. And even though Hunt did have pretty strong market share numbers in Week ten, it was also Chubb's first game back from that mcl injury. And I do think that Kareem Hunt benefited from bad weather. I think his target chair was boosted a little bit because the Browns didn't want to throw the ball down the field, understandably so. And even if you don't want to attribute Hunt's twenty one percent target share to anything but variance, that's fine. That still tells you that it's unsustainable because it was his highest share of the season. So to put this all another way, the fear of moving forward is that Nick Chubb is going to dig into Kareem Hunt's early down roll or his rushes. And then on top of that, I don't think that Hunt's gonna be able to maintain a twenty percent target share.

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Speaker 2: I don't think anyone should assume that.

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Speaker 1: And that's enough for me to entertain some offers because I do think there are people out there that are buying this narrative that Kareem Hunt is better with Nick Chubb than without him.

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Speaker 2: Add Josh Reynolds.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna blow your mind with this transaction unless you follow me on Twitter and you already saw my Josh Reynolds tweets. But hopefully I blow your mind a little bit here. So over the last four games, Josh Reynolds target chair per game average is twenty point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty good.

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Speaker 1: That's also up from ten point seven percent across his first five games. He's now hit double digit PPR points in three of his last four. His single game high.

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Speaker 2: Across his first five was eight PPR points.

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Speaker 1: So Josh Reynolds has been a lot more fantasy relevant over the last four or five weeks. So the question is why is this happening? And honestly, the answer to that is he's just playing more. From weeks one through five, according to Pro Football Focus, Reynolds ran one hundred and nine routes. That was thirty four fewer routes and teammate Cooper Cup, and forty three fewer than Robert Woods. Now get this, since then, so since week five, Reynolds has just three fewer routes run than Cooper Cup, and he's run the exact same number as Robert Woods. But here's the part that's going to blow your mind. It at least blew my mind when I fully fully realized it. Josh Reynolds has seen more targets than Robert Woods straight up since Week four ended. And then get this, He's been targeted down the field on fifteen plus air yard throws nineteen times this year. Cooper Cup and Robert Woods have been targeted down the field eleven times each. So Josh Reynolds is playing more, He's seeing downfield targets, and yet we're sitting here and Robert Woods is rostered in ninety seven percent of yeah who leagues and Josh Reynolds is rostered in five percent of them? Go out and get Josh Reynolds this week by Marquise Brown. Okay, so look, I want to be completely honest with you guys. I was wrong about Hollywood Brown this year. Earlier this year, I even had him as a by candidate, and I was wrong about that too. He has been completely underwhelming in twenty twenty, but right now he's at a low. You can trade bench players to get Hollywood Brown, and I think for that reason he's worth trading for. He's still seen a twenty three point six percent target chair, which is necessary in a run heavy offense. But if you want to look strictly at just targets, he's thirty fourth in the league in that category a wide receiver. I mean, that's nothing special, I get it, but it's not bad for a player who ranks in the top fifteen in deep ball targets and in air yards. Honestly, and I talked about this when it comes to Lamar Jackson a couple of weeks ago on the show.

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Speaker 2: This is really about conversion rate.

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Speaker 1: Markus Brown has not scored a touchdown on any of his deep balls this year, and his thirty five percent catch rate on those deep balls ranks in the twenty first percentile among players with ten or more deep ball targets. Last season, Brown was converting forty five percent of his deep ball targets. He actually had twenty last year and he is twenty right now, and he turned those twenty into four touchdowns. That's the difference. He was making big plays last year, He's not making big plays this year. I don't think that we should assume that things just turn around right away and that Lamar Jackson is all of a sudden gonna reliably hit Marquise Brown down the field. But we do have a few weeks leading up to the Fantasy football playoffs to see if that does happen, where we can sort of wait things out, where we can trade for Marquise Brown, throw them on our bench and cross our.

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Speaker 2: Fingers because we've seen it before.

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Speaker 1: We've seen that magic before, and then if the numbers start to get a little bit better, we'll have more confidence playing him as a big play option in the Fantasy football playoffs, because in the playoffs, the Ravens get the Browns, Jazz and Giants by the Baltimore Ravens defense. So, speaking of that schedule, the Browns defense is in a really really good spot in the fantasy playoffs. Like I talked about in the Mailbag episode last week, I don't typically trade for defenses in fantasy football. I don't even know if I've ever actually traded for defense, but there are exceptions to every role. With the Ravens getting the Browns, Jags, and Giants from Week fourteen through sixteen, they probably have the best schedule for any defense at fantasy football because those teams rank is the fourteenth best, the fifth best, and the ninth best matchups and adjusted fantasy points allowed. So trading for Baltimore right now, you get a plug and play defense in the playoffs. You just don't have to worry about that position, and that's valuable. Add Logan Thomas. I think the best tight end on your waiver wire right now is probably Logan Thomas. He's at least on a lot of waiver wires now. He hasn't seen any sort of uptick and target here since Alex Smith took over that offense, but he's now finished with a top ten tight end perform in three of his last four games. He's got a sixteen point one percent target chair on the season, and like I said in my fifteen Transactions column, he's a breathing human being. That's enough to make him a worthwhile play at the tight end position. Sell Jerry Judy. Now, look, guys, nothing's analytically wrong with Jerry Judy. I talked about him on this podcast just a few weeks ago because he was really underperforming based on his peripherals, and since then he's been a little bit more consistent. He's averaged about sixteen PPR points per game over his last three. He had that really big game against Atlanta. He hasn't been horrible, and even though he's left a little meat on the bone, and I think a lot of that has to do with Drew Locke. If I'm being honest, I'm a little bit concerned about the Broncos rest of season's schedule because in total at the wide receiver position, it's the seventh toughest in terms of justed fantasy points allowed, and they'll face the Panthers, Bills, and Chargers in the Fantasy playoffs. Those are all bottom ten matchups for fantasy wideouts. I like Jerry Judy long term, He was my second favorite wide receiver in this year's draft class, but I don't like them all that much from here on out.

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Speaker 2: During his rookie season, ad Savon Achmed.

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Speaker 1: I talked about Savon Achman on last week's show, and then he stepped in and had a much bigger workload than even I expected.

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Speaker 2: In Week ten, he.

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Speaker 1: Handled eighty four percent of Miami's running back rushes. Not only was that obviously the highest on the team this past week, but it was the highest that any Miami running back had throughout this twenty twenty season, better than any game that Miles Gaskin has had in terms of running back rush here. I know that some of those running backs are eventually going to be back, but I think that you should still be adding Savon Akhmed this week. And that's especially true because Jordan Howard he was released on Monday at Jamis Winston. So Drew Brees now has multiple rib fractures that collapsed lung. Things aren't looking good for him. Hopefully he gets better quick, but that means that it's now probably Jamis Winston's offense in New Orleans. I say probably because they're still playing the Taysom Hill game. There, and I'll be honest, Winston didn't look all that great when he stepped in the second half against the forty nine ers, and number five ER's expected points model says the exact same thing. His numbers don't look great, but I think we can be a little bit forgiving given the fact that he hasn't played meaningful football in a pretty long time. And the good news is he gets Atlanta in Week eleven. At the very least, he's a streamer. The Falcons rank is the absolute best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Quarterbacks against the Falcons are averaging seven point two more points against them versus their season long averages. So if jamis Winston, let's say it was putting up ten points per game against Atlanta, we would expect him to put up seventeen. That matchup alone makes him a viable streamer. Add the Cleveland Browns defense, So the Browns get the Eagles this week their three point favorites according to Fandles Sportsbook. I think they're a viable streaming option because Philadelphia has been the sixth best matchup for opposing defenses this season in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed. No team that the Eagles have faced has ranked out side the top fourteen and weekly scoring and the Eagles have now allowed the highest sack rate in football this year and the Browns ranking the top half of the league in sacks.

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Speaker 2: So I think they're a good option.

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Speaker 1: But on top of that, like I talked about on the Mailbag episode on Friday, they have great matchups in weeks fifteen and sixteen.

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Speaker 2: They get the New York teams.

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Speaker 1: I guess I talked about that with Jarvis Landry earlier too, So you might actually want to add Cleveland this week, play them against Philadelphia, and hold them throughout the rest of the season. The sixteen transaction this week that you can't get in the fifteen transactions call him over on number fire dot com is the ad DeVante Booker. I'm kind of surprised by this transaction, but hear me out. Booker's now seen thirty five forty three percent of the team's running back rushes over the last two weeks, that team being the Raiders. He's rushed for sixty eight and eighty one yards and he scored three times on the ground. Now he is seeing a lot of work in the second half. But I think this is one of those.

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Speaker 2: Scenarios where Booker could work out in deeper formats.

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Speaker 1: Is sort of a flex play, but he's also got that upside as a handcuff as well. Not really a high end handcuff, but he's definitely a handcuff to Josh Jacobs and Jalen Richard is also hurt. He sustained a chest injury in week ten. The x rays did come back negative, but you never know, so I think in deeper formats, Booker does make some sense to add, and Vegas has a relatively favorable schedule moving forward as well.

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Speaker 2: That's gonna know for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.

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Speaker 1: If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly ten Trend Show