1092: A Weak Running Back Class

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j J Zacher refon. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten ninety two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: Last week, I chatted with Alfredo Brown about this year's quarterback class. Today we're digging.

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Speaker 2: Into running backs.

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Speaker 1: If you've been reading about the draft, you probably know this isn't the best running back class in the world, but we're still bound to get some usability from it. To help me dissect this class, I chatted with my friend Jeff Bell of Football Guys. We discussed Jeremiah Love's elite ability, some potential RB two candidates in the class, later round darts, and so much more. Now, before we get into that interview, I just need to send another reminder check out the Late Round Prospect Guide. It's one hundred and seventy pages of analytical information about this class, and it includes info on second year players as well, all for nineteen ninety nine. You purchase now, you'll also get the post draft version of the guide email to you just hours after the NFL Draft is over. Check it all out over on Lateround dot com. Now here's my interview with mister Jeff Bell. All right, Jeff, talk to me about your general process for prospect evaluation, Like how do you mix in film work. I know you look at least a little bit of analytics and stuff too, and you've done a lot of work, you know, with prospecting in general. But what is your evaluation process like so that while we dig into this running back class, people kind of have that background.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that when you're looking overall, and I know your audience leans a little bit more on the analytical side, I think that's really looking for disqualifiers, probably on the analytical side and as opposed to qualifiers is where I would come down on that side. But I'm a film watcher. I mean I'm a film watcher at heart. My uncle was a wide receiver coach. I did all the wide receivers for the Guide and the Football Guy Rookie Guide this year and it did about fifty seven wide receivers and so really just stacking it up, watching everything that I can find and working through and when it comes to a wide receiver valuation and some level at running back valuation as well, looking at what role they will fill. And kind of do they move like NFL player, do they high level explosion? Do they have those things that are qualifiers? And I'm going through the process and trying to look hard for what can a player do, how can they profile into it? And that's when it comes down to a lot of it. I'm in the middle of the scouting academy right now and so going through that curriculum to kind of sharpen that film watcher view of it, But that is really where I lie. I'm a CPA, and so the numbers are my life, and so kind of scouting when it comes down to it, is like I'd like the tape side of a little bit more exercise, a different part of my brain than what I run into quite a lot through the day to day.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say, it seems like like is it do they that you're doing that on purpose in a way almost subconsciously of like a way of like just just doing something different than what your day to day generally is with you just looking at numbers all day long.

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Speaker 3: I think that might be part of it. Certainly might that might be part of it. And I do think at some level we're we're all just trying to figure out what is most comfortable for us, but also fill in what's least comfortable for us. And so somebody that's very, very high strong on the analytical side, they don't feel as comfortable on the tape watching side, and so they're using the proxy to try to fill it in. I know, it's kind of that's the view on I mean, I hate to bring them up. They're in the news right now, but the PFF grades coming through and kind of using that as a proxy for film watching. I think that that's when it comes down to where we lean on our strengths and we try to fill in our gaps where we could get stronger. And it is probably part of my brain when it comes down to it, of wanting to have the more creative side that and kind of exercise that relative to looking at numbers quite a bit as a CPA.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean it's going to be well rounded and have that background. So it's awesome.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's let's talk about this running back class. Jeremiah Love right now is the consensus RB one. I would assume you agree that he's the RB one in this class, But talk to me about how high you think his ceiling could be, you know, in fantasy especially, and how do you think he compares. I've asked this to a lot of folks that have come on now. I think that like, at the end of the day, are we really making this super actionable? Probably not, you know, because it's like, Okay, it's Jeremiah Love, He's the RB one.

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Speaker 2: What more can we go?

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Speaker 1: Like, we know where we're drafting him generally speaking, But I do think it's it's important and interesting to kind of compare him to the other elite backs that have come out recently to see if you do see there's there being a big gap, or maybe you don't see there being a big gap.

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Speaker 2: So how do you love how elite is his ceiling?

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Speaker 1: And is he as good as some of the other backs that have come out, you know, in the first round in recent memory.

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Speaker 3: I think he's right there with the backs that we've seen with having Ashton Genty in the class last year, having Jamiir Gibbs and John Robinson in two classes prior to that, And that's really when it comes down to the backs that have come out recently. That's kind of the high in backs that we've seen recently and so I think Love does have a lot of it, and I'm excited to dive into just the running back position with you in general. But I know we've talked a little bit in the past about the way that the NFL is kind of changing the shape of having multiple tight end involvement, kind of taking a wide receiver off the field, and the shape of a running back position I think has changed quite a bit in terms of looking more for three down skill sets and having the ability to kind of ease maybe the workload of what used to be more of a strict committee approach. Now teams don't want to tip their hand. They want to keep the same players on the field, and I think really at the end of the day, that's where Love comes into it. He's a club He's a three down back much in the same skill set that Jamiir Gibbs is a three down back in the NFL, and so I think that without question, I think he clears that bar. But it's you know, we're coming off of what has been traditionally viewed as a three down back profile. But James Cook led the league in rushing and that was a player that we never would have thought and especially in the prospect phase of it, that he had the profile to be a guy that leads the NFL in rushing. I think the when we were kids, it was the big Gilbert Brown inside and those guys falling on you, those guys that kind of disappeared out of the game. There's more space now and they've both been mitigation of what the hits the running backs are taking awareness probably on what you're putting on the running backs. Does feel like we're in a period of three down backs, and I think Jeremiah Love does have that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that it's really important to recognize and to think about sort of how teams are using their and deploying their running backs and that you know, I think the team should use more workhorses personally, but even if they don't, you know, look at what the rams are doing where instead of thinking about, you know, using a running back only on you know, early downs, than only on third downs. You rotate by drop right and you have you know, when they drafted Blake korm or even Jarquois Hunter who didn't get you know, run last year, it's the same arc type of running back and size and style of back that they could hypothetically just be rotating in and out and not not lose you know, any any a beat, you know, offensively. And I do think that there is value and a player like Love, you know, being able to not show their hand because he has a three down back and he has the skill set as a receiver. He's a skill set obviously to create explosive runs, to do stuff at the goal line.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he can do it all.

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Speaker 1: And I do think that, you know, do I think that a team needs to spend a top ten pick on him? Probably not, you know, from an economic standpoint, whatever the case may be. But I get the value side of it more like, I think that there is an untapped or untalked about, not talked about, that much value in having a player that is not leaving the field in general, right Like, we.

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Speaker 2: Can't discount that totally.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's a really really important piece to bring up with the Love evaluation. Now, he shared a backfield in college with Jenarium Price, and I have a hard time with Jenarium Price because his production profile is understandably not very strong. And then there were things that happened like at the combine, for instance, where he weighed less than I expected him to weigh he didn't run as fast as I expected him to run. Now, I'm not like, hey, you got to crush the combine or else I'm not going to like you as a player.

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Speaker 2: Like, it's not like that.

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Speaker 1: But it's more so, you know, he had a good explosive run rate, but then you know the metrics didn't, the measurables didn't necessarily line up to that. It's just a really tough evaluation for me. So tell me, how do you feel about generarium price.

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Speaker 3: I hear you on being a tough evaluation. But then at the same time, we're seeing a lot of I mean, in this class, we have the two Penn State running backs. In last year's class, we have the Ohio State running backs with Judkins and Trayvon Henderson, and so I think we're seeing given And this is what is really interesting. And part of it's like the analytics conversation around just in general of historic benchmarks seemed to be completely out the window in many regards because of this era that we're in now in college football, with nil, with player mobility, the transfer portal, all of this, and you're seeing almost the opposite of what you think you would see because you think that these running backs want to be the guy, they want to go somewhere that they can, and it's the opposite. These guys just want to get to the NFL. On some level, they know that they're going to get paid, and so like Quinchohn Judkins and Trevion Henderson don't have a problem sharing a backfield together because they know that they're going to go to the NFL. And so I think that that's it's really really interesting just the historically what we're looking at. And I hear you absolutely on production profile not being there for Jeddarium price. At some level, we're just making the bet on him being the athlete that the NFL wants to see in the position and him having that upside, having the assumption that had he been at one hundred and fifteen other schools, he would be the top running back at that school is part of where we're landing there, and some of it's just the muck of this just class in general is definitely part of it as well. But I think it's it is an interesting conversation, and it's one that as we go through that journey of like you kind of put your prospecting cap on and you start to put out content, you start to do those things. I feel like it's very easy to think that the process is being very difficult. But one of the things that I go back to quite a bit is Adam Harston is one of the smartest people that I know. And Adam Harst said, great job of dynasty content over at football guys. But I really enjoy just talking at him and his view on rookies. He just he basically doesn't have a view on rookies. He just takes the guys that get draft capital because he says the NFL is right, like more often than trying to project this guy should have gone over here and so, and some level, it's your rookie drafts. After the NFL draft and the running back position in general, you're looking for landing spots, you're looking for opportunity, and you're waiting for the NFL to tell you that Juderiu Price is a Day two pick, and he lands somewhere, lands in Seattle or something like that. Then we're like, well, we don't really care about these profilecy lands in Seattle where it looks like a wide open and a good offense, and he's on Day two, like let's go with it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean that is honestly, Like, the the hardest thing for me with Price in particular is that I'm just waiting for him to get drafted by Seattle and to then have this internal battle, you know, the night that the draft ends, or you know, I guess it would be the Friday night where when he gets drafted and me thinking about where am I going to rank this guy in the next twenty four hours before the Prospect Guide goes out again to the people who you know, who had the pre draft version and they want the post draft version.

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Speaker 2: And it just wrecking my brain because on one hand.

00:11:38
Speaker 1: It's like, yes, that is what we need to do, right, But then on the other hand you're like, okay, but there's this and there's that. And then with Price, where it's different is that there's at least this excuse hanging there right Like analytically the hard part for me, and I want to ask you about this too, Like, the hard part for me about Price is obviously analytically it's not fully there. But if he goes Day two, he's already kind of an outlier because of how bad his analytical profile already is, right, Like I'm talking like third percentile best season reception, chair like he was not used much at all, but there's an obvious reason as to why that happens. So my thing is, I'm trying to figure out if people believe who are watching this and not doing as much of the analytical work, but maybe approaching it from a different angle, if they see at least like a pass catching ceiling for him. Because I don't really question the early down stuff to a degree, I don't know how big of a workload he can carry.

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Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong, because we didn't really see that.

00:12:38
Speaker 1: But I do think that he can be an explosive runner because a lot of those metrics line up with really good explosive run rate, et cetera.

00:12:45
Speaker 2: You know, he looks good there.

00:12:47
Speaker 1: The big question I have is people have questioned his past pro and then they have questioned.

00:12:52
Speaker 2: A little bit his pass catching ability.

00:12:55
Speaker 1: I want to hear what you think about that, and then my sort of like response is that if if the pass catching isn't there, then that actually is gonna probably get me more off of price, assuming that his ADP would rise.

00:13:08
Speaker 2: If he gets really good draft capital if he lands in.

00:13:10
Speaker 1: Seattle, all that kind of stuff because I want the pass like I still want a pass catching back, you know, a guy who's going to be deployed that way. So do you have concerns on that end at all? It's like a receiver as a pass protector, any of that stuff.

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Speaker 3: So part of I mean, the analytics just say, no matter what your approach is, is if it's not there, what's the story why is it not there? And I think that the one thing with Price is it's when Riley Leonard's the quarterback at Notre Dame and they've got Riley Leonard scrambling around and playing his best Tim Deebow impression, but you're also sharing a backfield with Jeremiah Love. It's easy to understand and see why it's not there potentially, And so I think that that's probably the out the argument to be to for the out. If you're in on Price of you can see a very very clear reason why it's not there. It's the higher state argument again, where it's Quinn John Jenkins is not involved in the passing game because Trey Von Henderson is a very good at run block run or pass block pass pro and then he gets to the NFL and now Trevian Henderson apparently can't pass pro even though he looked like one of the better pass pro prospects coming in. It's what's the argument for it not being there? If it's not there? And I think that that's that's probably where it lands on Price, and again, what does he get asked to do? What does he get fitted into? Does he get into a situation where you know, you can look at Jacksonville and having Mishall Tuton and then m quinn Allen gets drafted way way after Vishal Tutan, but then le quinn Allen comes in all his job is to pass pro and so that that's elements not there. It's hard to answer it before the draft, probably until we see what an NFL team sees and what kind of role they project Judy and Price to fall into. Because you're exactly right, there's a reason why it wasn't there, But it wasn't there, and so to look at the numbers, bottom line, flat out, it's it's not that box is not checked. And so you can watch the film and look for at some level, I think the danger that you run into is you basically approach the film looking for an answer and when you come into it looking for what the answer might be, you probably have an answer that you think it's going to be, and you start to see the things that back up that view on it. If it's coming to it as I like this player, but he's missing this, I want to find it. You're going to look until you find it in his game, or if it's the other view, I don't see it in his game, you're going to pull the examples that that kind of back that up. And so I feel like that's not a no answer, But at the same.

00:15:45
Speaker 1: Time, no, I mean, I think it comes down to basically what you're saying, and what it comes down to is it's just like you, there's a big projection that goes on with your very imprice, you know, like we when you don't see something it, we can't assume that it doesn't exist, right, But it does make the profile a lot more volatile, right. I do think that that's part of the prospecting process in general that kind of gets misunderstood in my opinion, where you know you're you're pointing out red flags. Those red flags to me, you could call them just like it's just variants, right, Like it's it's pointing out where there might be volatility in a profile doesn't mean that it can't exist. You know, we're not talking wide receivers here, but I've been I've been bringing up Zach Branch so much, you know, on this show, because his deployment was was ridiculous, like in terms of seeing all the all this like manufactured stuff, a lot of screenwork, you know, just not a real route tree. And so that's a real big concern because you have to at least question, Hey, are they deploying him that way because that's just the way the offense ran, or are they deploying it that way because he can't do the other things. And it's not that we don't it's not that we have an answer to that question. It's that we don't have the answer, and that makes the profile a lot more volatile and red flaggy. And that's kind of how I feel about Jenarian Price, where we're sitting here and we're saying like, yeah, he might have a decent pass catching profile in the NFL, or he might have this, or he might have that. When all those stack up, it becomes such a I mean, everything that we do is gonna be cost focused right, So, like you know, like any player is a value at some point and vice versa. But with Price, I think my fear is if he's the locked in RB two post draft or in draft, like he goes round early round two or something like that, mid round two, then all of a sudden, his rookie ADP is mid first round, you know, or something like something along those lines.

00:17:35
Speaker 2: And when you're when.

00:17:36
Speaker 1: You have a prospect that you're forecasting and having to to project so much for that just becomes a really really highly volatile thing to do. And I'm not saying it can go I'm not saying it's automatically going to go south. I'm just saying it's it's a risky thing to invest in overall.

00:17:53
Speaker 3: And I think some level, what we're seeing with Jendarian Price is the lack of a clear running back to in this class and looking at it as it's more than mystery box approach, It's like, I don't think it's these options, Maybe it's this option.

00:18:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think.

00:18:07
Speaker 3: That's probably where it comes down to with Price. I do think that in prospecting, looking for what a player can do relative to like what they can't do, I think is probably one approach that I think over time wins out and looking for the positives in the profile. But at some level, I think the people that are very very high on Jenerium Price it is that mystery box of it. It's the I've gone through all everything else, I haven't seen what I want to see through anything else. I can say maybe if Jeneium Price was at Alabama or something else, he would be the clear number two in this class. The lack of the lack of a clear number two in this back class makes him my number two. So he's not my number two. But you know, it's just yet that happens.

00:18:51
Speaker 2: That's a good point.

00:18:52
Speaker 1: This is one of the rare instances where a profile like this could be the second best running back in the class, like from a ranking perspective, to say that it would end up that way just because there's just not a lot going on outside of you know, I think the class will probably have some guys to emerge, and it's probably overstated how bad it is or whatever. You know, it's just the way that we get things wrong generally. But yeah, I think that's a really good point to make, that the class is just weak and so taking on that volatility.

00:19:20
Speaker 2: Sure.

00:19:20
Speaker 1: I mean, if you really need running back or if you really want to go the running back route, then that's that's the opportunity that kind of is presenting itself at this point.

00:19:28
Speaker 2: Another running back.

00:19:29
Speaker 1: Who's sort of shooting up draft boards right now after the combine is Mike Washington.

00:19:34
Speaker 2: Do you agree or disagree that.

00:19:36
Speaker 1: Mike Washington should be a Day two pick because that obviously has a lot of weight to it for how you would view him as a prospect and how you would view him from a fantasy football perspective.

00:19:47
Speaker 3: So before I talked about I was deep on the wide receivers, and I spent a lot of like January February, doing the wide receivers for the Football Guys Rookie Guide. And then when I plugged in the running back Steve Kluty, my co host on the Dynasty show, Good Friend at Football Guys, he did the running backs, And when I plunged into the running backs, obviously I knew Jeremiah Love is gonna be the top back in this class. I kind of looked at it and it's like the Jerry and Price number two argument. I was like, well, wait a minute, we've got Mike Washington here, who's two hundred and thirty pounds and potentially runs a four to three. Why are we not just making him the running back two in the class given that the size speed factor of it all is just a rare profile now, so is not doing anything until his fifth year at college a rare profile as well, And so there's definitely risk involved in it. But I did have him as my running back to really just kind of the trying. I have the argument of the things that I know, the things that I can see here of him being this rare size speed blend, and I think the receiving profile, and there were some things on tape that he made plays on the ball down the field, and probably that's where I'm looking at at some level on the receiving side of it. I don't want to see just the schemed up screen, get the ball in the hands behind the line of scrimmage type thing. I want to see if a guy can actually play the ball downfield, and I think Washington had some of that on his tape. And when you have the size speed plus some of that in the lack of the argument for to Day and price, essentially the lack of a clear running back to in the class. You look at the overall upside and say, if this guy were to hit the upside case on him, he's got pretty high ceiling if it were to get all there, And so I had him as my running back to prior to the combine. Obviously that performance, I mean we go from, hey, this guy looks pretty fast on film. I see this thing that he's doing against Texas's defense, who I know is pretty good to what he laid out, and that performance there kind of checks that box definitively. So I think it's it is overall just the conversation and then part of it too. We're two years removed from a class that we didn't think was very good at running back, and it turns out that that class was not very good at running back. Yeah, they're you know, even the guys that the Trey Benson and the Jonathan Brooks obviously injuries for all the injuries for both of them, but we haven't got that out of there. And so the reality of it is is I think a lot of times what we do in fantasy football is assume that the answer has to be something and not realize the answer can be nothing.

00:22:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think That's a really good point to make, especially as we think about where these guys will fall from a draft capital perspective. I thought Jack's Falcone, who was on the show on Perspectives a few weeks ago when he was mentioning I love what we just call him Jack's Falcone, you know, even though it's just as yah.

00:22:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he.

00:22:28
Speaker 1: Was on the show and he mentioned that he's not going to be like at that time, and to be fair, obviously things can change, but he mentioned that he's not going to draft, like he's not going to put any running back in the first round of rookie drafts. Like he's just not going to do it because there's not And it's like, yeah, you can do that, you know, like you you're free to do that and to not force the issue. Whereas you look at ADP and rookie draft ADP right now, if you look at like keep trade cut or something like that, it is kind of crazy to me that there is seemingly a confidence of some of these guys that could easily go Day three being drafted over potential first round wide receivers, you know, And it's to me that's really what these rookie drafts are probably gonna come down to this year is Yes, we know running back can get you that immediate production. Yes we know that high end running backs are always the cheat code in fantasy football.

00:23:17
Speaker 2: They give you the biggest edge in fantasy football.

00:23:20
Speaker 1: But at the same time, it's just to me, you know, it's just a safer bed and probably not great. It's probably better process to be going after the pretty good wide receivers, not even saying that they have to be elite, but like pretty good first round wide receivers over a guy that right now is questionable to even go Day two in the draft, and we could walk away from the NFL draft this year Jeff with like just generium price as a as a running back pick, like it's it's a very possible outcome, and it just seems like, I don't know, I think that sometimes we get a little bit too confident with like how many Day two backs are gonna be or like who's gonna be locked into these areas and we just don't know for sure. And you know, if you're drafting pre draft, which hopefully and I don't think many people do and will, but when that's the case, I would I would definitely be leaning more wide receivers. Why my rankings lean more wide receiver heavy because we at least have confidence in where these guys are going to go and from a draft capital perspective. But yeah, I mean, like, like you said, we shouldn't just assume that someone's gonna hit.

00:24:18
Speaker 2: Because it might not happen. It really might not have, especially in a class like this.

00:24:22
Speaker 3: Where a year removed from Caleb Johnson was like everybody's taking him in the first round and then was selecting even we saw in the draft we saw him fall almost out of Day two and people were still taking him over Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland who tight ends that went top ten, top fifteen in the draft because and there was really no reason to other than we just started doing it, so we kept doing it. And I think that we do see that a lot in fantasy, that we start doing something with kind of an assumption or not a lot of basis behind starting doing that, and then we just kind of It's I think the ADPR is fascinating con in general, because at some point ADP is set for the year somewhat arbitrarily, and then we just kind of enforce on ourselves over and over again, especially the best Ball. I feel like, really does it where the beginning ADP for best ball is somewhat arbitrary to some level, and then it's set and then it's just reinforced upon itself, and it's like, well, I mean, thousands of drafts have been done with this guy going at this spot in ADP, so you have to take him in the spot and ADP. But why did they get there in the first place? And so I think it's just kind of in general, I absolutely agree with you that it doesn't have to be one of these running backs and to pass up wide receivers that we feel really really good about being first round picks. I'm not going to go there. I'm going to take the wide receiver. But I know we did a show last spring with a first round wide receiver and talk about Matthew Golden, and I was talking about how I'm taking him at the one twelve or two to one, whatever it might be. In a lot of drafts that hasn't worked so far. And there's arguments, there's arguments in cases of any direction that you really kind of want to yah.

00:26:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.

00:26:02
Speaker 1: I mean this isn't to say that like anyone's right or wrong or that, like you know what I'm I'm merely saying that. I like, I think that there's a difference between you know, a guy that could go round five, like realistically, like Mike Washington could go round five, Like that's not out of the question, you know, even like Caleb Johnson, you know, like at least he's still won day two. But we're you know, here, we're talking a player who could quite literally fall a lot further than than people would imagine. And there's just no reason, in my opinion at this point to in a not only that, but it's a it's a running back because like again let's just use the Caleb Johnson because I think it's a great example. But the Caleb with the Caleb Johnson thing, it's like he had he had interesting marks that you.

00:26:44
Speaker 2: Know, a lot of people were like really high on him.

00:26:47
Speaker 1: I just don't know if anyone's like pounding the table saying Mike Washington is a really really good problem. Like I think Caleb Johnson in this draft class is the RB two from.

00:26:57
Speaker 2: A prospecting standpoint.

00:26:58
Speaker 1: You know, I understand some people, you know didn't like him, and you're right like he was. He was, you know, he's clearly not the guy. You know, like, if you didn't like Caleb Johnson, then.

00:27:07
Speaker 2: Kudos you were.

00:27:08
Speaker 1: It was a good process, but I think that he would probably be looked at more favorably than than Mike Washington right at this point.

00:27:16
Speaker 2: And so that's where it's just such a weird.

00:27:19
Speaker 1: Sort of dynamic and uh and in class at this point uh in time. But let's move on to Emma Johnson because he has a really great production profile, but the athleticism is a little bit questionable, didn't test like extraordinarily. Well, I like Emma Johnson a lot, but I want to hear other perspectives here.

00:27:35
Speaker 2: So how do you feel about Emma Johnson?

00:27:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I know in the show notes you put down that he had a weaker combine and when it kind of came to testing numbers, sure, but I think it's the takeaway on Emmitt Johnson. I think at the combine, when you look at what the combine has become, is be basically like to go from talking about Mike Washington to Emmitt Johnson. At the combine, you're talking about two opposite ends of the coin. Essentially, at the combine of what the view should be on the combine because Mike Washington basically said, this is my size, I'm going to run a forty. He lays down his four three forty and he said, peace, I'm out. I did the one thing. Whereas things didn't go good for Emma Johnson, but he kept doing it and he ended up being the only running back that did all the drills. And I think that there's something to be said that when you're looking at the foundational level of the piece that's so hard and prospecting of what are these players made of? And I think a lot of it they're going to come down to. You have a lot of these guys that you just think about growth and maturity, human life cycle in general. The a lot of these guys were five star recruits and then they land at big schools and they blow up and have they don't really get challenged to some level and to end up and really arguably what could be the lowest moment of his life, the fact he came back the next day and still just kept doing things, I think says a ton about Emmitt Johnson. And when from the production standpoint, yeah, great production. His final season at Nebraska. But when it comes down to it, of while, yeah, he didn't have the testing that you want to see, but we've more. You feel like, more often than not, the guys that do blow up the combine and testing are the ones that end up don't doing any not doing anything. It's the guys that have worked their way into being more. And I think it's it's just fascinating just in general of looking at athletes at this age just what they're going to go through. There're gonna be a lot of these guys are going to be struggling more than they've ever struggled in their entire life. And we just come off the Caleb Johnson and having that fumble in Week two that really kind of defined his entire season and at some point, unless he bounces back, could define his entire career at some level. One mistake I think seeing Emmitt Johnson knowing that he kept plugging away essentially, I think kind of answer some questions that you might have about the actual performance there. And the production profile is very strong, like you.

00:29:59
Speaker 1: Said, mm hmm, yeah, I mean his receiving profile I think is the best in this class. Like it's just just I mean, you can throw out like a Eli Heyden rake, and let's not consider him a running back just given you know the type of.

00:30:10
Speaker 2: Player he is.

00:30:10
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean I also think that from a combine perspective, people listen to this show will probably think that I'm weighing the combine you know, X, but I'm actually weighing it like X divided by three. It's just not nearly as strong as much as people probably would assume, like what speed score matters and stuff. And then the other thing, the other point to that too is that like you usually are going to be looking at more of the extremes with testing and with with athleticism and whatnot.

00:30:35
Speaker 2: And I don't think I'm at Johnson hit an.

00:30:37
Speaker 1: Extreme, you know the way that the way that he tested, which makes me feel better about him as a prospect. He's my RB two right now. We'll see what happens with draft capital, because I do think that's really up in the air both with its similar to Mike Washington, we just don't really know whereas I feel most confident that Jendarian Price would be going day two. You know of this of this group, just given what mock drafts are saying and such. But Yeah, just goes back to the exact conversation we're just having about, you know, how do we possibly rank some of these guys pre draft when we just have zero clue who's going to get the capitol and not one guy who seems to be falling down mock draft boards is Jonah Coleman, who didn't do any testing at the combine. He has a really you know, Doug Martini rest in peace type build to him, a good production profile. But do you see him as someone who should be slipping into day three or do you think that he could be a Day two back.

00:31:33
Speaker 3: Man. I think that when it comes down to especially when it comes down to day two, what we see more often than not, NFL teams are willing to take a bet on the freak athlete essentially as opposed to kind of the production and we see a lot more it's a lot more transparent with wide receivers and what we see the NFL teams are going to bet on the six foot three wide receiver that tested out of the gym and might not have done anything at the college level and production before they're going to take a bet on the Xavier Streppo of the class. Basically and that's that's kind of I think that's probably the argument for Mike Washington as you stuck it up, that might be viewed as the argument against Jonah Coleman. I mean, it's at this point it does feel shaky to have a definitive stance on any of these backs going day two, because we run into how is the lee going to value the running back position? Is probably part of it of You've got really feels like we have two opposite ends of the spectrum, and we see it play out more often than not where we're projecting these teams, Like we throw a Seattle out there, it's a great landing spot and because we don't see good running backs there right now. And then it comes to the draft and we get I mean to go to Seattle. You have Kenneth Walker coming off a very strong rookie season. They draft Zac Charbone because that regime at that time valued the running back position, and it becomes the point of everybody else is devaluing the running back position. They become the best player on our boy. So while it's filled for us already, it's filled because we value the running back position, we devalue it here in the draft. But we still value more than the other teams, so we're going to take another one. I think that that's what you run into. Probably on the conversation with running back, I think Joanah Coleman, there's a case to be made that he checks those boxes as a three down back and he's done that in the past. But the athleticism, similar to Emma Johnson, is the athleticism there to make a team comfortable with one of those premium picks when they're wanting to spend them on the size speed freakd guy and hopes that they can figure out the reasons why he wasn't super productive because it's really hard to teach the size speed freak aspect of it.

00:33:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, makes sense.

00:33:47
Speaker 1: And then we have the Penn Stay back field, Nick Singleton and Kateron Allen.

00:33:50
Speaker 2: Do you have a favorite between the two of them?

00:33:52
Speaker 3: Well, I mean my head feels like Kateron Allen is the type of player that is going to figure it out. My heart, maybe I've flipped those two around. But Nick Singleton to me feels like the bet that NFL teams make over and over again because we know he's number one running back in the class. When you're looking at the two of them overall explosion. Singleton has that in spades. It's the interesting thing between the two of them. We talk about the mental make of the heart of EMMITTT. Johnson, what he went through that Penn State season. Everything went off the rails and is really similar to the Ali Gordon conversation. At some level, I think of Oklahoma State Ali Gordon coming out and being you've looked two years ago, he would have been the one of the top, maybe the top back in that week. Class comes back, has a terrible season because this team started to lose, and probably at some level he said, I really wish I would have been able to go to the NFL. I think with Singleton, everything around him seems to be the case of everybody came back to Penn State because they lost in the semi finals. They thought they would be a college football playoff team. The season goes off the rails very hard, and Nick Singleton checked out in k Allen decided he's going to become the all time leading rusher at Penn State. And so that says something about both of them, but still the reason why Singleton's been the debbie running back in the class in the past was the number one recruit in the class because he does check those size, speed, skip freak factors in spades over what you see from k Tron Allen.

00:35:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I would agree.

00:35:20
Speaker 1: I think I think Singleton and I've said this on shows and I'll I'll say it again later in the week when Perspectives comes out, But I think Singleton is one of those players where on paper he looks like he looks the part, you know, like it's it's all there, but then you know, I was. I had Derek Brown on the show and it was funny because one of Nick Singleton's main comps that came on the Zap Model with CJ Prosise, and that was the comp that Debro had for Nick Singleton, which is hilarious because it's a it's such a niche kind of camp to make, right, But like that is the fear I think with Singleton is that everything is there, but it's not quite there.

00:35:59
Speaker 3: Right.

00:36:00
Speaker 1: He has the athleticism, he has the production profile, but something is just kind of missing where he's not able to be the great fantasy asset that we want him to be. But again, in this kind of class man like we've been saying shooting for upside makes a lot of sense, and I do think Singleton has a lot of that pretty good receiving profile for a guy his size too. All Right, of all the backs we haven't talked about, are there any that you have as a favorite that you might see as a value this year?

00:36:27
Speaker 3: I think that. I mean, I don't think he's gonna be drafted, but I think Seth McGowan is fascinating in terms of looking at a former blue chip the things that NFL teams value blue chip recruits, and then everything goes off the rails for him. He has to climb the path back and had a really really strong season last year, I think. And Adam Randall is really fascinating in terms of converted wide receiver that becomes the running back and you look at to talk about again high speed, freak potential that has receiving potential given since he was a wide receiver, that becomes interesting there in some level. It's it again, it's difficult to do pre draft because we're just some of the deep running backs that you like are the guys that land like the Jakori Krossky Merit is that the last back off the board, but he lands in a Washington backfield that they decided they didn't like Brian Robinson anymore, and it ends up as the back there. It's kind of I think that I think wide receivers interesting to dive into on looking at archetypes and looking at what potential hits could be there versus like a Dante Thornton. Like, the path for Dante Thornton to be Fantasy relevant is very extremely narrow relative to what NFL other receivers can bring to the table. Running back is kind of like, I hate to say, like a cockroach, but like what's going to be alive. Basically after the nuke goes off and nothing is left in this backfield, well, this guy is left standing more often than not when we get into the season, get into December, those are the backs that basically there's there was no other option to go here. Yeah.

00:38:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I've done some research that with Day three backs, the ones who end up emerging typically are ones who are in those ambiguous backfields where you can just look at redraft ADP and if their teammates are drafted late, then those are the backs that you might want to think about and target, you know, even in Dynasty, just because you can get that value jump, you know, from one year to the next.

00:38:18
Speaker 2: Jeff, this is great, man.

00:38:19
Speaker 1: Really appreciate your time and having you know, and jumping on and talking running backs, let everyone know what you're working on, where they can find you, and all that good stuff.

00:38:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, everything's coming out through football guys, and we've got I've got the Dynasty show going on with football guys. I've got the Now we're going to be on version three of our Rookie Guy. We've done version two. We do version one right around the Super Bowl. We do Version two coming out of the combine, start to paint the picture a little bit of what these profiles put together and what prospects we're dealing with. And then version three comes out after the NFL Draft. That's a big one. I've got an MFL mock draft that might have mock draft one point out late in the process for a one point zero, but I've been a little bit busy. It is going to be coming out tomorrow, so that is in the works as well. Well. So that's really kind of and I'm doing a lot of taxes right now. So yes, that's what I'm what I have been up to dadding around you.

00:39:07
Speaker 2: Know, yes, yeah, I mean it's this, this is middle of taxi.

00:39:10
Speaker 1: I didn't even think about it whenever I DM you about the show and now, and then I felt guilty because you you have two weeks left until uh you know that that that turnover day for you.

00:39:20
Speaker 2: But thank you for your time.

00:39:21
Speaker 1: I greatly appreciate it. As always, guys, check out Late Round dot com. Make sure you're checking out the Prospect Guide. Uh.

00:39:27
Speaker 2: You will get the post.

00:39:28
Speaker 1: Draft version of that guide just hours after the NFL Draft. If you get the pre draft versions, you'll get both versions of that. Otherwise, everyone got Perspectives later in the week. As a reminder, I'm not around for the show on Wednesday with David Kitchen, but later in the week you will get a Late Round Perspectives episode, So I'll talk to you then.