835: 10 Trends for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the Label podcast with your host JJ Zacherreatha Jay Shake Zacher Reason. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and thirty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I'm not sure if I've said it on the podcast before, but Late Round Fantasy Football is on YouTube. Make sure you're subscribe to the channel by heading to YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. I'll be doing more and more video content as Late Round Fantasy Football grows, so make sure that you're subscribed now so you don't miss it. That's YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF. It's a ten trends episode. Let's get to it now. I know everyone's sick and tired of Tony Pollard. I get it. You heard me say to draft him this year, and you even heard me say to buy him last week and he didn't come through. I'm totally fine with taking the Pollard l this year. I'm not gonna get everything right, but I'm not sure people realize just how bizarre his season has been. Pro Football Focus is a great expected fantasy points model. It looks at how many points we'd expect a player to have based on his workload, and Tony Pollard right now ranks as the RB seven and expected points per game this year, Pollard's playing four and a half fantasy points per game below expectation. He has two touchdowns when based on his usage, he should have closer to nine. Just sit back for a second in imagine a world where we split the difference with justice touchdowns. Then instead of two touchdowns, maybe he has six. So he scored four more times than he currently has scored. Remember his expected touchdown totals nine, so he should have seven more touchdowns, not four more touchdowns. That's twenty four more points across the season. That would get him to fifteen point two PPR points per game. That would be a low end RB he one in fantasy football. When people talk about Pollard being this horrible fantasy asset, I get it, I really do. The current result shows that Tony Pollard was a bad pick. But I just don't think enough context is being given to this situation. He's playing way way below expectation right now, and even if we assume that he doesn't play at expectation, even if we assume that he's just a little bit below expectation. All of a sudden, the narrative shifts completely. Now I do think that Pollard is playing worse than last year. Numbers show that as well. He's not breaking tackles at the same rate, and maybe that makes Dallas not want to use him that much down the stretch. That's a reason to add Rico Dawdle this week. But because of this schedule upcoming and because of this regression related information, I still believe that Tony Pollard is a by low with obvious risk, and now you can probably buy him very low. We saw a shift in the Lions backfield in Week ten. We had both David Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs playing, and Gibbs ended up seeing fifty four percent of the team's running back rushes to go along with a fifteen point six percent target share. Montgomery, on the other hand, his running back rush there was forty six percent and he didn't see a single target. Now, as my friend Hayden Wings pointed out this week on Twitter, the Lions essentially rotated drives between Montgomery and Gibbs. Gibbs had higher playing time because Montgomery had that huge seventy five yard touchdown, so one of his drives was that big play. Even still, I like Gibbs more than Montgomery straight up rest of season because I see him with more receiving upside and if you can still see some goal line work as he did in Week ten, that's huge. But both players are more than viable. And don't forget there's contingent upside with both of these guys because the other player can get hurt. Guess what, guys. Marvin Mims finally played a good number of snaps for the Broncos. He ran around on seventy three percent of Denver's dropbacks on Monday Night, which was by far a season high. Unfortunately, he had just a three point four percent target chair he only saw one target. This is obviously a good sign for him, though he can still be a viable stash. If Judy or Sutton go down, he'll be a full time player. And I'm still a believer in Mims is a talent. He looked pretty good in my prospect model. Guess what else? The Falcons used b Jon Robinson more in week ten. He saw sixty five percent of Atlanta's running back rushes. That was a little short of a season high. He saw an eleven percent target share. That's what we've come to expect with b Jhon Robinson. The receiving work was never in question. He's seeing a double digit percentage target share each and every week. Basically. Most importantly, though, Robinson saw the lone goal line rush in that offense this week and he scored on it. From the five. He saw two rushes from within the ten. No other Falcons player had a rush within the ten. If he maintains this kind of workload, he can easily be in RB one in fantasy football coming out of Thereby. Something that was good to see in Week ten was Alvin Kamara getting an uptick and snap share. In Week eight and week nine, Kamara had snap shares of just fifty eight percent and forty nine percent. In Week ten, it rose again to seventy six percent. Now Taysom Hill he had a snap rate of thirty percent. I think where the Saints have these alternegative game scripts, it'll probably mean more Alvin Kamara, but it's good that he was able to at least find the field more in Week ten. Trevor Lawrence has had a very rough season in fantasy football. He's had multiple passing touchdowns in just two games, and he's ranked as a top ten quarterback just twice as well. There's a voice in the back of my head saying to not forget about what happened in twenty twenty two, because last year, through eight games, Lawrence was averaging just a little over fifteen points per game. This year, through nine, he's at thirteen point seven. And after those eight games last year he really turned it up. He finished the year with nineteen points per contest. The issue that I have with this is at number one, it's probably nothing, but number two Jacksonville has the fourth toughest schedule for quarterbacks from here on out and ad justin fantasy points allowed. I don't think it's gonna happen for Trevor Lawrence this season. According to fantasylife dot Com and their data tools, Deontay Johnson currently ranked seventh and percentage of team airyards. Deontay Johnson, the guy who always has a low average at the target, not this year. This year, Johnson's eight out is twelve. That's according to Fantasy Life. Across his first four seasons in the league, his average aid out was nine point four. So the Steelers are using him down the field a lot more this year. That might result in a little more variance than usual for him. His past week, he had his lowest PPR output since Week eight of twenty twenty. But we're probably gonna see a higher ceiling from Johnson two. The Denver Broncos defense is playing a lot better. Just look at their last two games for proof. In Week eight, Patrick Mahomes finishes the QB thirty two against Denver, he had five point six fantasy points. Josh Allen in Week ten scored fewer than fifteen fantasy points. He failed to hit two hundred passing yards for just the second time this season. The Broncos are not the same matchup that they were to start the year. One player to at least have on your radar is Rondel Moore. I like Michael Wilson's upside in that Arizona offense rest of season, like I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, but with Kyler Murray back in action against Atlanta this past week, rondel Moore's target share was twenty five point eight percent. That was his second highest target share of the season. Not only in that but Morse on a dot according to Fantasy Life of eight point one on Sunday. That was his second highest average at the target of the season. He's been around the three and a half range because he gets targeted so close to the line of scrimmage, So don't sleep on Rondel Moore. The final trend this week is about Brock Perdy. I had Perdy as a by candidate last week that one's looking good so far. A lot of that recommendation was driven by schedule. San Francisco has the best quarterback schedule from here on out according to justin Fantasy points Allowed. Eighty six percent of their matchups are plus matchups according to that metric, and that could be big for Perdy. So far this year, Perty has played four games against teams that rank as top half favorable matchups or quarterbacks. He's played five games where the opposite is true. In those four games against easier matchups, he's averaged nineteen point six points per contest. In the other matchups, he's three points per game lower. And in his two best matchups this year by that metric by justin Fantasy points Allowed, he's scored twenty three point eight and twenty one point three points. Brock Perdy is here to stay in fantasy. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shurching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, andjelf to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone greatly appreciate it. I'll tell doct you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper show m