388: Mailbag 7/3/20

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at fanduelnet number fire dot com, in this episode three hundred and eighty eight of the Late Round podcast with the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. I'm still here, thanks for tuning in. When Cam Newton signed with the Patriots this past week, my initial reaction was, Hell, Yes, Cam Newton's gonna be on a football field again. That's fun. And then I started to see some takes in my mentions. One of them said that Cam should be ranked in the Josh Allen range at the position, and initially I was shocked by that. No way should he be ranked that high. He's coming off injuries, he hasn't played in almost a year, he's on a new team. There's a funky schedule this season because of coronavirus. There are so many things stacked against Cam, and I still feel that way. I wouldn't draft Cam Newton as a top ten quarterback right now, but I should note that he does have that type of upside. We've basically seen it every healthy season of his career. So then I built out the projection for Cam. He comes out as a mid range QB two, as the QB seventeen, and that was a conservative projection given all the question marks that I just mentioned. But like I always say when drafting quarterbacks slate, you should be shooting for upside. Cam has that upside. He's been a top four quarterback in four of the five seasons where he's played at least fifteen games. That's why his rank is higher than his projection. For me, I have him at QB fourteen, basically in a tier with guys like Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. And there's a very easy argument to make, considering we're striving for upside, that Newton should be ranked as a top ten quarterback in some leagues, and by some leagues, I mean leagues where it's easy to make up for a mistake at quarterback, like easier than usual if you're in a super flex league, if you're in a league where thirty quarterbacks are going to be drafted, you'll need some sort of safety net. But in a league where it literally doesn't matter if he doesn't pan out, sure go for Cam Newton. I wanted to share all that because number one, people ask me where I ranked Cam Newton after this signing. But number two, this is the game theory thought process that goes through my mind when this stuff happens. My initial reactions aren't always how I feel. Even after twenty four hours of working through a situation. I wouldn't be ranking him near Josh Allen, but I do think a case can be made that he's a top ten option, and that's not something that I thought that i'd be saying when this news initially broke. Now, before get into the questions this week, I want to let you guys know that the next UFC event is set to take place on Fight Island, and FANDEL is celebrating the highly anticipated action with one of its biggest MMA contests yet. For just eight dollars and eighty eight cents, enter Fandl's two hundred thousand dollars Saturday UFC Super Octagon and compete for your share of the two hundred thousand dollars prize pool, including a fifty thousand dollars first place prize. Is gonna win fifty thousand dollars on July eleventh, and it might be you. For more details, visit fandle dot com or download the FANDLE app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. The first question this week is of course related to Cam Newton, is from at J Home thirty three. Does Cam joining the Patriots make any Patriots players a better draft value? I think this is the bigger question to ask. This is more important than where we should rank Cam Newton. But in short, I don't think so. I don't think Patriot players get significantly better from this move. I think you might feel more confident in someone like Nikhil Harry. But a huge problem in something that happened in my projections is the fact that these pass catchers are likely to see less volume now because the Patriots are now projected to be a better team. When a team is good, or when a team is seeing positive game scripts, the pass catchers then see less volume. That's somewhat of a concern. And you might say, but they're gonna score more touchdowns because they have Cam Newton, and that's not wrong. But Cam Newton's also a player who's going to absorb some of that. We know that he's going to find the end zone on the ground, So the impact isn't felt as strongly. So the issue I'm going to have with the pass catchers there is that I would assume the market reacts in a really, really positive way, and I don't think that's totally wrong. I think that the market should react in some sort of way positively, but I'll likely not react to that same degree, Meaning I'm still out on those guys for the most part. But then with the run game, you have to still be concerned about touchdown upside, and even more so now a healthy Cam Newton is going to steal goal line work. He's also likely going to run the ball more than a typical quarterback, So not only does that shrink the rushing share for these running backs, but it shrinks the touchdown upside. So I'm not really into those guys this year, and that probably includes James White, depending on where his ADP moves. If it doesn't move, then that's great, I'll draft James White. If it moves up, I might be out. I've seen people cite Cam Newton's ten to throw to Christian McCaffrey is a good thing for James White, But in three seasons prior to McCaffrey, the Panthers ranked thirty first, thirty second, and thirty first in running back target share. White is better than anything they had in Carolina previous to CMC, but it's important to not overfit that type of number. So overall, to me, most of the output for the players in this offense remains relatively neutral. The problem is that the market probably won't view it that way. This last questions from at Beard O six. Is there a method of streaming kickers and defenses that's noteworthy? Yes, I get irritated when people say kickers especially are completely unpredictable, and I talk about the defensive process on the show all the time in season when I do my matchup show. But for both positions, you want teams in positive game scripts. For kickers in particular, you also want teams who are bound to score points. The best teams in raw field goals are generally teams who are moving the ball in scoring. Generally, that's not always the case, because some teams just end up suck and can't find the end zone. But you want to target good offenses for extra points too. For defenses, target defenses who are big favorites and who are also facing bad quarterbacks objectively bad ones That's the way I can describe the two processes at the highest level imaginable. But you can be better than your league mates at streaming those positions. This last questions from at K one to nine trust HEYJJ love the pod and the pause game this offseason. If you had to choose one breakout quarterback going outside the top ten, who would that be for you this year? I think Daniel Jones is an obvious choice outside the top ten. He's a second year player, he has the rushing jews, the weapons are there, and he flashed upside last year. He had four top two performances in three games with thirty plus points, So I think Jones makes sense for this question. And his ADP over the last month on Best Ball Tens has been QB thirteen, so he fits the criteria for this particular question. This last questions from at fifty three is the mic one. Why are some analysts so sure the Bears offense will all of a sudden flourish Outside of Alan Robinson, Trubisky and Foles are below average to put it nicely, and Naggie refuses to use Montgomery and co. Inadequately. Now I haven't seen analysts say that the Bears offense is going to all of a sudden flourish outside of Alan Robinson. It's more so that there are interesting players in that offense you can draft late, specifically Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen. I'm not really buying into David Montgomery. I just don't see the path to him having a really high ceiling. You've likely got a cap target upside, and he was already set up really well to score touchdowns last year. He was tied for third and goal line touches. He just couldn't convert. But Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen have a really good chance to exceed value in my opinion. I talked about them both on this show. Because you like a later round value doesn't mean that you like that offense in general. I don't think from a projection standpoint that Folds is any sort of massive upgrade from Trubisky. But the potential is obviously there fools being better for those pass catchers than Trubisky is That can absolutely happen. But you can't just only get players in good offenses. There's a reason some of these players fall in drafts. It's not always just talent driven. It's situation driven, and that's partially what's happening with Cohen and Anthony Miller. So I'm not sure anyone is saying that they're gonna flourish. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I'm missing that, but I haven't seen that. I think it's more so that analysts like myself are pointing out values because it's not a necessity to be in a good offense to then be good in fantasy football. It certainly helps, but it's not everything, especially when you're in the late rounds and it's hard to find higher volume players and good offenses to begin with. This last question is from at M reader one two three. Is Adam Troutman a threat to Jared Cook for twenty twenty? I feel like Cook is a steal, So on Monday, I'll have an episode for you guys on low key regression candidates and spoiler alert. Jared Cook is on that list. I don't I don't think Troutman is much of a threat, given he's a rookie tight end, but I'm not very high on Jared Cook this year. I'll tease Monday's show with that there are reasons to be low on Jared Cook and Monday's show will lay that all out and it has nothing to do with Adam Troutman. This asked question is an email says, hey, JJ, hope this email finds you well. It does. I like Higbee, but I'm nervous about Everett coming back healthy given how much twelve personnel the Rams were playing by the end of last year. Do you think he's a good late round tight end target? Along those same lines, how do you feel about taking multiple late round tight ends and quarterbacks and dropping them if they don't pan out early in the season. All the best, Nick, So I don't necessarily like taking multiple players at those positions because we likely won't have a clear picture or a clear enough picture like you want. So there's sometimes dead weight. But tight ends and quarterbacks also have worse trade value because of the positions that they play, so you're not extracting as much value with those picks. Like depending on bench side, it's find a draft multiple player at both of those positions. I'm just saying, don't go crazy, since we know the hit rates for those guys isn't amazing, and we know running backs and wide receivers are more valuable. Basically, if you hit on those positions late. If you hit on running back and wide receiver late, you're in way better shape. But I'd be more inclined to take a lot of tight ends before a lot of quarterbacks. Now, as for the question about Higbee that seemed to be the topic of conversation this week on Fantasy Twitter, there was lots and lots of Tyler Higbee hate. I can tell you that I have Higbee right at his ADP. I haven't drafted him a ton and then startups this offseason, I have a lot of Gerald Everett just given the cost to acquire. Higby really didn't break out until not just the shift to more twelve personnel for the Rams, but also Gerald Everett getting banged up. In his range of outcomes this year. Is Everett seeing a lot more volume than we might expect, at least compared to the tail end of last year. But Higby bawled out, it's gonna be tough for the Rams to just keep him in the garage. That's why I understand and get where his ADP is. Especially too, because the Rams be a little bit more pass friendly this year in terms of how they're scoring touchdowns In a normal fantasy league that the majority of you guys listening to this play in you probably don't need to get Gerald Everett. You don't need to draft Gerald Everett. It's very likely that the only way he's relevant in a non best ball league, a non best ball format, is gonna be with an injury to Tyler Higbee. We just don't see multiple tight ends as super relevant in fantasy year over year. But it's good to have him ready on the waiver wire, and I think he's a good bye in dynasty considering he's a free agent next year. This nice question says, why are people so split on Josh Jacobs, this year first round pick with great hands, and fractured his shoulder in either Week five or Week seven and played through it. I've seen rankings from RB six to RB thirty one. Yeah, I mean RB thirty one is pretty nuts. I have Jacobs at RB eleven right now, which is basically around his ADP. But the fear with Jacobs isn't so much whether or not he can catch passes. I actually thought that he would do a lot more of that during his run year. It's just how the Raiders are going to deploy him. He was fairly gamescript dependent last year when Jalen Richard was stealing a lot of receiving looks, and now Richard is back and they drafted Lynn Bowden. Those are two pass catching backs who are bound to steal looks from Josh Jacobs. But Jacobs should still see plenty of work on the ground, and I actually think that you could bet him as a longer shot to lead the league in rushing this year. I just worry about his pass catching stealing. I think others are worried about that too, but I have no idea what the person ranking him at RB thirty one is worried about. This. Last question says, is it crazy that I am ranking McLaurin over aj Brown. Brown dominated in yards after the catch last year, but that should regress while Washington can't get any worse. I don't think it's crazy at all. My projections currently have AJ Brown scoring fewer than ten Fantasy points more than Terry McLaurin this year. I've got Brown at two hundred and seventeen and McLaurin at two hundred and ten. McLaurin absolutely can outscore him, and I think it makes sense to rather have McLaurin at his ADP versus Brown at his during the month of Junior Guys. According to Best Ball, Ten's ADP McLaurin went twenty seven picks after AJ Brown. That's insanity to me. Now keep in mind too, like I talked about on Monday show, Tennessee's a regression candidate in terms of touchdown scoring and the rate that they scored touchdowns last year. They won't be able to sustain what they did a year ago. And Washington ran the second fewest plays in the NFL since twenty eleven last season. They're gonna run more plays. That's all baked into projections, and that's partially why I'm seeing what I'm seeing and why I'm feeling what I feel about mclauren versus AJ Brown. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. I hope you enjoy your Fourth of July weekend and I will talk to you next week.