840: Week 12 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher rethas j Jae zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and forty of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I'm pumped about the results of last week's Sleeper Show. There were a handful of misses. Darnell Mooney didn't do anything, Curtis Samuel got ejected. Tajy Spears was a disappointment despite another target share north of twelve percent. Luke Musgrave was okay enough as a streamer, but Chicka konk Will wasn't. But I think last week's episode was one of the best of the season. Jordan Love scored over twenty Fantasy points, Jaden Reid showed up. Rondell Moore didn't see a ton of volume, but he did get a long touchdown. Khalil Shakir scored over twenty PPR points. Ty Chandler was really solid, Darryl Henderson was a top twenty running back, and even deep sleepers Tanner Hudson, who was the tight end twelve, and Justin Watson, who is the wide receiver sixteen, those guys showed up. Now, I can't expect that kind of performance each week, but I'm gonna do my best. We've got a crazy one in week twelve. Let's get to it. So this episode is dropping earlier than usual this week, which means the percent roster numbers aren't as reliable as they usually are, and doing this episode earlier, it also means that it's harder to pick out usable players with really low percent rostered numbers. Because I have even less of a feel for injuries across the league. I don't know as much right now that can often help me find super deep plays each week. Now, this isn't gonna make some dramatic impact on today's show. It's just that a few players may be over that fifty percent mark by the time that you hear this, and some players might become obvious sleepers by Friday or Saturday, but that technically happens every single week anyway. With that being said, we're only gonna look at one tier of players this week. We're gonna look at players who are rostered in zero to fifty percent of ye leaks, and as usual, we're gonna kick things off at quarterback Baker Mayfield is under that fifty percent rostered mark right now. That might change by the time that he plays, but regardless, I think he makes for a good quarterback streamer. This week, the Bucks get the Colts and Indianapolis is the ninth best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Indy's given up the eighth most touchdowns in the league this year, and they're completely average and passing EPA per drop back allowed and air yards per attempt allowed. It's just a pretty neutral to above average matchup overall. But Baker's been pretty strong over the last month. He had a tough matchup against San Francisco this past week, but he was a top twelve weekly quarterback in each of his four games prior to that, so I think he's fine enough this week in that same game, though, as Gardner minshew, the Colts actually have the tenth highest implied team total this week according to Fandels Sportsbook, and Tampa Bay has been great for fantasy quarterbacks. Like I mentioned in the fifteen Transactions episode, this week, they've given up a top three quarterback performance and four their last six games, each of those quarterbacks hit at least three hundred and twenty passing yards teams throw against the Bucks. They've allowed the seventh highest neutral script pass rate and sixth highest overall pass rate this season, all while generating a bottom six pressure rate. So Minshew should have time to throw. It's against a secondary that ranks twenty eighth in EPA per drop back a loud I'm gonna go back to Jordan Love this week too. Green Bay gets the Lions this week, and they're in a domed environment in Detroit, and the game has a respectable forty six and a half point over under. The Lions have allowed the eighth highest pass rate against them this season, They've been below average and EPA per drop back, and they've given up the six most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. Now, Detroit's been pretty good to getting to the quarterback this year, but Green Bay's actually top five in pressure rate allowed. That's a plus for Jordan Love, so he's not a bad option. Now, moving on to running back, let's talk about ty Chandler some more. I know I talked about this on the ten Trends episode, but tyd Chandler was easily the better running back this past week week for Minnesota between him and Alexander Madison. He had a seventy percent success rate, Madison's was thirty three percent. Now, I'm not sure if Minnesota's gonna reward him with more work, even though they should, but the Vikings do get the Bears this week in Chicago's the fifth best matchup for running backs by adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Even if he's capped at like twelve or thirteen touches, Chandler might be able to be flexworthy given the matchup. I'm gonna go back to Tajy Spears this week too. He's seen target shares of fifteen percent, seventeen percent, thirteen percent, and thirteen percent over his last four games, and the Titans get the Panthers this week. Carolina not only ranks as the second best matchup for running backs this year and adjusted points allowed, but they're seventh and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. Now, I do think it's likely that it's a Derrick Henry game, but Spears's do a lot of waiver wires and he works if you're in a pinch. Ezekiel Elliott is available in sixty two percent of leagues. I think he's a logical choice this week as well. Over Zeke's last two games, He's seen about a forty percent running back rush share and ten percent target shair. Now, those aren't amazing numbers, but they're not bad for a waiver wire running back. The Patriots get the Giants this week and what could be one of the ugliest games that we're gonna watch, But New York has been a plus matchup for running backs. Zeke's a higher end RB four for me this week. Roshawn Johnson's also kind of intriguing. It's weird, but last week, according to next Gen Stats, Johnson played three more snaps in Khalil Herbert in the second half for Chicago. That was without Deontay Foreman for most of that half. Now Foreman's iffy for this week, so we could see a two headed backfield for the Bears. If that happens, Johnson might end up seeing like ten or twelve touches and it's a slightly better matchup than what we saw last week. And then the final running back for today's show, Jeff Wilson. Savon Achmed he's now done for the year. Devon ah Chan he's banged up. I know Wilson was a healthy scratch last week. But if eight Chan can't go, Wilson would be the number two back for Miami and they get the Jets. It's a team that's allowed the seventh most of US and fantasy points to running backs. New York has faced the lowest pass rate in the league because teams don't want to attack them through the air, and we could see that again in this one, especially if a positive game script hits from Miami, and that would really help Wilson see more touches alongside Raheem Moster. Now, when I did notes for this show, Josh Downs was still rostered in just fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. Right now it's fifty three percent. But I'm still gonna talk about him because that's wild to me. He was a bye for me on the fifteen Transactions episode from two weeks ago because number one he's really good, but number two. Indy has a pretty good rest of season schedule and that starts this week against Tampa Bay. The Bucks have allowed the second most slot touchdowns in the league this year. Downs plays the majority of his snaps from the slot, and they've been pretty average against wide receivers this season and adjustin Fantasy points allowed in games where downs has been healthy this season, he's averaging a twenty one percent target shair. That all makes him a pretty good play this week. Now. I mentioned Rashid Shaheed and At Perry on the fifteen Transactions episode therein play this week too. I would personally prefer Shahed, but do keep in mind that Perry ran more routes than Shahed the last time we saw the Saints. Perry's gonna be stapled to the perimeter more than Shahed will. In Atlanta, their opponent this week has allowed the eighth highest target chair to the slot this season, to go along with one of the highest yards per route run rates to that area of the field. That's where I think Shahed is gonna play more snaps versus At Perry. So I prefer Shahed and his big playability, but Perry's a deep sleeper for anyone who's desperate. Now, at the time of this recording, Jaden Reed is a little bit banged up, but if he goes this week against the Lions, you've got to be interested. He saw his second highest snap share of the season last week, and he hit his second highest route participation too, and he's been bawling out. He has back to back nineteen point performances. Reed can line up all over the field, but he's played seventy nine percent of his snaps from the slot this season. Detroit has allowed the fourth highest target chair to that area of the field. It's a really good spot for Reed if he can go and keep an eye on Dontavian Wicks two as a deeper sleeper. Curtis Samuel was ejected last week. That was a huge bummer, But now Washington gets Dallas this week, Samuel should be good to go. Quite simply, Dallas isn't a great matchup on paper, but there's a world where we see a lot of shorter passes from Sam Howe in this matchup. With Dallas being the top team this year in pressure rate, Washington's a bottom ten team in pressure rate allowed. Dallas is also surrendered the seventh highest target chair to the slot. That's where Curtis Samuel lines up. He's run seventy three percent of his routes from that area of the field. Washington will probably be forced into a pass heavy script on Thanksgiving that should benefit Curtis Samuel. Another go to on the show is to Mario Douglas he's in play this week against the Giants. Douglas has seen a twenty four percent target shair per game rate over his last four and he hit a season high end route participation in the last time that we saw him at eighty seven and a half percent. He's been a high floor play, especially in PPR formats, mostly because he can't find the end zone. But the Giants are a beatable matchup, ranking as the twelfth best one and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers, so Douglas makes plenty of sense as a high floor option once again. Ravens wide receivers need to be looked at this week. Obj's might preferred choice, but he's a little bit injured. If you want more on Obj, you can listen to this week's fifteen Transactions episode. Rashot Baman and Nelson Agalore would be the next man up. Baitman would be the one to prefer because he usually runs ahead of Nelson Agalore. The Ravens get the Chargers this week, though, That's why this is important. LA is the fourth best matchup and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers. All of these guys could see a natural uptick and work without Mark Andrews, and when you layer on this matchup, they make for obvious sleeper choices. Another player that I talked about on the fifteen Transactions episode is two two at Well. With both Cooper Cup and Puka Akua not being one hundred percent, there's a decent chance that we see Atwell with a bigger role this week and against the Cardinals. Remember, without Cooper Cup earlier this year, Atwell was seeing a tw twenty two and a half percent target share per game rate. He scored fifteen plus PPR points in three of four games. Arizona's a decent matchup two, so you can play them if one of those two wide receivers doesn't go. Zay Jones returned to action this past week and he ran a route on seventy six percent of Jacksonville's dropbacks. That was a pretty normal rate for him. He wasn't limited at all. In Week twelve, the Jags get Houston, it could be a fairly high scoring game. Fandel's sportsbook currently has that game with a forty seven and a half point over under. It's one of the highest totals of the week. So given his usage last week and this game environment, I think Jay Jones is an okay play if you're desperate. Now, let's talk about the Arizona wide receivers. In Week eleven, without Michael Wilson, we saw Greg Dortsch with a twenty eight percent target shair. He ran more routes than Rondell Moore. The previous week, Dortsch's rout participation was just two point nine percent. But if Michael Wilson does not go again this week, I think you have to be interested in Dortsch. He did that while playing the majority of his snaps last week on the outside. He's traditionally been a slot player, so I'm intrigued by what could happen here. I always thought that he was a pretty good player. If Michael Wilson does go, you probably can't trust Greg Dortch, but I do think that he's a decent bench stash. If you have that space, and if Michael Wilson doesn't go, you can fire up Dorsch as a sleeper and then the last wide receiver to shout out Justin Watson. Of course, I talked about him earlier on the ten Trends episode, but he's seen target chairs of eighteen percent and twenty eight percent Over Kansas City's last two games, he's been operating as their number one wide receiver. Now I don't know if that's going to totally continue, and to be fair, the Chiefs love to rotate their wideouts. But he gets the Raiders this week. Vegas has seen the highest target chair in the league to the outside. Justin Watson is largely a perimeter player, so he might come through with another decent performance. Now I've got two tight end picks for you. The first one is Isaiah Likely. That's not that much of a surprise. He had an elite route participation last week of almost ninety percent. Now they get the Chargers, and the Chargers are a top five matchup for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. I think Isaiah Likely is a low end tight end one this week. And then there's also Kate Aughton. According to fantasylife dot Com, only George Kittle and Evan Ingram have better route participations this year than Kate Otton. Now that hasn't translated to a ton of fantasy points, but the Colts are also a pretty good tight end matchup. They've allowed the twelfth most adjusted points to the position this year. Teams against Indianapolis also target their tight ends at a higher than normal rate. The Colts this season are third and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends. So I like Kate Atton as a streamer. Now, as for the streaming defenses, there are two obvious ones this week. I think I talked about it on the fifteen transactions episode, but the Broncos are playing a lot better and they get the Browns this week, and then the Patriots get the Giants. Tommy DeVito took nine sacks last week nine. The Giants have allowed eighty five and nine sacks over their last three and those three games have been with the veto. That makes New England a pretty obvious choice. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and felt fre it to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly appreciate it, and I greatly appreciate you. I'm very thankful for all of you, and I hope you have an awesome, awesome Thanksgiving. I'll talk to you next week,