500: Another Strong Wide Receiver Class

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa.

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Speaker 2: J Jake zacher reson.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred of the Late Round podcast. On many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Last year's wide receiver class was awesome. It was awesome before the NFL Draft even happened, but the class exceeded even those draft day expectations, both in real and fantasy football. If you missed out on that class and need wide receiver help on your dynasty team, then you're in luck because this class. This class is pretty good too. To help understand this class a little bit better, I sat down and had a chat with my friend Curtis Patrick. Curtis is the owner and CBO of the awesome data centric site Rodoviz. He hosts the Dynasty Command Center podcast and he's found success in high stakes leagues and I talked about this class versus last year's before digging into some of the higher end receivers who are about to be drafted just in a couple of weeks. He provides a couple of his favorites outside of the top tiers as well. Now, before get into that interview, I wanted to send another reminder about the Fandel home Run Challenge. It's free to play. All you have to do is draft a team of three players and you'll receive points for each home run that they hit. Compete for a chance to win part of the ten thousand dollars prize pool by heading over to Fandle and playing the home Run Challenge for absolutely free. For more details, was it fandle dot com or download the fandalle app today eligibility restrictions apply. Now let's listen to what Curtis has to say about this year's wide receiver class. So, Curtis, we had an awesome wide receiver class last season, as we know, and some people seem to think that this class is almost just as good as last year's class, or at least on par with last year's class. Do you agree with that? Do you think that this class could rival last year's.

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Speaker 3: I absolutely do love the wide receivers in the twenty twenty one draft class. We have some athletic freaks, We have some guys with amazing production profiles and we have man a huge handful of guys that are going to get Day two or better NFL draft capital. So it makes it really exciting for dynasty rookie drafts. And really even from a redraft perspective, I think we'll have some impact rookies at the wide receiver position. Certainly the strength of the rookie class in like you know, your traditional old school one quarterback league, but even in Super Flex with as deep as quarterback as this year, I think you still are excited about wide receiver and it's a position that is going to have you moving around in your rookie draft to get the value.

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Speaker 1: So there seems to be one alpha in this class, or at least the alpha, Jamar Chase. He's almost everyone's wide receiver one in the class. I'm assuming that you've got him in that spot as well, but you know, if you don't, definitely let me know. But how good of a prospect do you think that Jamar Chase is going to end up being see on that like Amar Cooper type level?

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Speaker 2: Well, man, that's a good project questions there, JJ.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, So Jamar Chase is definitely my wide receiver one, definitely not unique in that take. You know, when we look at his profile, you know he has that thirty plus percent dominator rating breakout age under you know, twenty and a half, which is something we.

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Speaker 2: Really look for at Rotaviz is part of our process.

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Speaker 3: You look at his profile, I mean, eighteen hundred yards and twenty touchdowns and the toughest conference in college football when he had you know, other awesome teammates. He's got a similar body type to like DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, but athletically measures, you know, like a more explosive Terry McLaurin. And when you think about, you know, what type of player he might be in the NFL, I think that's a pretty good mold to look at.

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Speaker 2: When you look at just his production.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned Amari Cooper, he actually pulls in very similar prospect profiles in terms of SIMS and our Box Sports scout.

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Speaker 2: Over at Rodoviz.

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Speaker 3: Both players comp to Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Junior, and Sammy Watkins as three where I guess crossover prospects within their top ten. So our tools think he compares favorably with the MARII Cooper, and I do think it's fair to say you know, he's at once every couple of years, you know, type of wide receiver prospect.

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Speaker 1: So I think things get kind of interesting in rookie drafts released in the wide receiver rankings at wide receiver two, because Jamar Chase is the consensus wide receiver one. Right now, I have Rashad Bateman at wide receiver two. But you can go in a lot of different directions here. Realistically, I just think that Bateman has a really clean profile. He did come in a lot lighter on the scales than we thought that he would at his pro day. So I'm wondering if that's a concern for you. And where you have Bateman ranked.

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Speaker 3: Wide receiver two is definitely where it gets interesting. You could argue that the second tier of wide receivers in this class might be seven, eight, nine receivers deep, and so you're going to see, you know, tons of disagreement to you know, really down through the single digits. Bateman did weigh in a little lighter than some had hoped. I mean, Soda measured him taller and reported a higher weight, of course than what was reported at his pro day. You know, he spoke to that, you know, he was pretty severely ill at one point during twenty twenty and lost some weight. He also says he feels stronger and faster than when he you know, supposedly was heavier. So I don't really have a concern about that. I mean, he just always looks open. You know, the film guys really love his double move, just huge, huge production, forty four percent game adjusted dominator rating in twenty twenty. I think that that the reason that the weight is a little disappointing is it puts him more down in the you know, Calvin Ridley range of type player, whereas we thought we might have had like another Michael Thomas here. So you know, there's less margin for error in this cohorta prospects. So I do have him as my wide receiver four, but certainly the same tier as you.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So speaking of then lighter wide receivers or wide receivers, I mean, we see Rashot Bateman weigh in, you know, ten to twenty pounds lighter than we expected. We haven't even seen Davonte Smith really weigh and he might weigh one hundred and fifty pounds for all we know. You know, we have no idea at this point, but we do know that DeVante Smith can ball out. He's a great production profile won the Heisman last year. How are you viewing DeVante Smith as a prospect?

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Speaker 3: Man, If we ever get away from Devonte Smith, you know, his scout should probably put some like little slivers of lead and shoes and refuse to have him weigh in barefoot. You know, So, DeVante Smith, I think it's fair to argue that, you know, he's an outlier. I mean, he literally had one of the greatest college football seasons of all time in twenty twenty. You know, did it out of school where it's you know, jam packed with other talent, and you know, did it in the toughest conference in college football, and did it throughout the college football playoffs as well. This wasn't just a familiarity thing where Alabama knows how to attack the other SEC schools. He just absolutely made the ohighest state bucket secondary look silly in the National title game. He's the all time SEC receiving touchdown leader. You mentioned Amari Cooper earlier. You know, certainly he was high on that list before it might have even been his record that was broken. And I start looking at all the players coming to the defense of DeVante Smith. You know, Chad Ocho Cinco, Chad Johnson coming to his defense passionately, saying that he played in the one seventies at one point in the NFL. And you know, when you start looking at just how silly DeVante Smith made opposing defense's look despite his weight, you know he wouldn't need to do it despite his weight in the NFL as well.

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Speaker 2: But he just he runs.

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Speaker 3: By people, makes difficult catches, doesn't seem to be necessarily afraid of contact, as smart not to take any you know, big bruising hits. And when you look at the argument that he broke out late, well, you know, I've seen other sites have things like a teammate score or you know, at least discuss the idea of adjusting for teammate contexts. When you're talking about a guy who played with Jerry Judy, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Waddell. These are all four probably first round NFL draft picks, and you know, he had the most impressive production of all four of them.

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Speaker 2: As he leaves school.

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Speaker 3: And even if he didn't play in twenty twenty, he would have had a seventieth percent adjusted production index It's one of our metrics we used to try to take an objective look at at the box score their players putting up he's gonna nail NFL draft capital. I just think there's so many check marks here that I'm okay fading the idea that that wait is the reason I should be out. So Demante Smith's actually my wide receiver two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I can dig it. I mean I think that he's again we talked about that giant tier makes a ton of sense to me, and you know, to me, you know, production leads anything, you know first and foremost before you get into that BMI discussion anyway. So Demante Smith can ball out. We saw him ball out throughout college, and it makes sense that he should be able to do very well at the NFL level. You mentioned his teammates, Jalen Wattle, one of his teammates. He has an incomplete production profile because he missed so much of his junior season. So are you in on Jalen Waddle and how much emphasis do you put on that teammate competition and how he performed against that competition when you're evaluating him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great series of questions there.

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Speaker 3: So I'm high on Wattle as well. I'm mostly okay being high on him because the gaps in his analytics based profile are totally filled in by the universal love that film scouts have for him. It's it's really hard to find people who are you know, watch you know that the technical aspects of the wide receiver position and look more at you know how a player might fit in certain types of offenses. I mean, Wattle's just universally loved. And I think if if Alabama, I mean this is just totally you know, my my brain working here, but I think if both receivers are available for Alabama throughout the twenty twenty season, you know, both Smith and Waddell, you know, they'd have a production that was smoother Rather than you know, Smith breaking all the records, they both just would have had, you know, incredibly dominant season. So I can kind of forgive some of that. You know the fact that he came back and tried to play in the College Football plofs despite his horrific foot injury there still ends up scoring a touchdown. I think memory serves correctly. You know, he clearly is a warrior, wants to be out there. Yeah, I'm okay, leaning more on the guys who are talented as film you know film critics here with Wattle. So he is also you know, in my top four at the position for twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, something that. So I was talking to Kevin Cole of Pro Football Focus on his podcast yesterday and when I talked to him about Wattle, he made a great point because Wattle has sort of that gap in his production profile during his sophomore season where he just didn't perform up to you know, he had a great freshman year, especially compared to competition, and then his junior year obviously he was hurt, but he was he was bawling out before he got hurt. But he has that weird sophomore season. If you look into his numbers, he didn't play as many snaps that year, and you have to wonder why wasn't he on the field? And I think a lot of it could be the fact that he was a sophomore while a lot of these other guys were juniors, and because of that, coaches were throwing those guys on the field as opposed to growing Wattle on the field. So maybe at the end of the day, it really doesn't have anything to do with talent, and so we can sort of forgive that sophomore season as a result of that. One of one of the wide receivers who I think is undervalued in this class would love to get your take on him, is Tis Marshall. It feels like people are sort of overlooking his entire situation and not giving him the same benefit of the doubt teammate wise as they might be giving like a DeVante Smith or Jalen Waddle. And then maybe it has to do with Jamar Chase being in the same class and Chase being you know, on his team and being a teammate of Marshall's and not performing him being the better prospect. So I'm curious where you have Marshall and how you're feeling about him right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's totally fair to say that people are overlooking this teammate context more so than the Alabama I mean, terras. Marshall was competing at one point at LSU with Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and then even this year Kashan Butte, a five star freshman who is you know, very highly regarded already in kind of those Devi Niche dynasty circles here. But the thing that I love about Teris Marshall is he has a trump card that really other wide receivers in this class don't have. I mean, this class is is full of production stars, but it lacks some of the size speed, kind of prototypical alpha wide receiver body type, and Terres Marshall can offer that, you know, to a team that's looking for a matchup problem. One thing we use at Rotoviz is called freak score, and it's a positive predictor of you know, future NFL touchdowns scored and arras Marshall actually has one of the best freak scores of all time. He's got an eighty ninth percentile freak score. He sits right in between Julio Jones and Chase Claypool on our all time rankings, so that that paints the picture. Now, of course, you know we're giving it credit for you know, that pro day. Even if you adjust that down, you know, he's still above Julio and freak score actually as long as he goes early on day two or on day one. I mean, I think this is this to somebody who potentially, you know, Skyrock gets up a lot of you know, rookie draft rankings, you know, for people who might have been sleeping on him and just filling him in there at the end of their tier.

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Speaker 1: Totally totally agree.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The other thing too, is that in his sophomore season, the Joe Burrows season, where Burrow and that offense just went nuts. He got hurt in their fourth game, and up until that point, if you look at his statistics versus Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson, really wasn't trailing them by that much. He actually had more touchdowns than Justin Jefferson through that time, only one fewer reception. And you know, a lot of people are talking about, you know, the fact that, oh, he's going to have to play with NFL talent now, et cetera, et cetera. You could easily make the argument, In fact, I would make the argument that the wide receivers that he played with in college are better than the wide receivers going to play with in the NFL, because he's playing with Justin Jefferson, who just broke the receiving record, and then obviously Jamar Chase, who's likely to be at least a top ten pick in the upcoming draft. So I'm with you. I think Terris Marshall is undervalued right now. So let's talk about the Moors. So you have Elijah Moore who had this insane production profile. You had Rondell Moore, who had this insane freshman season. You know, at the very least, both of these guys look like look like they're going to be productive slot players at the NFL level. But is there some concern with their size and the fact that they might just be slot guys to the next level and they might not grow into something more. How are you feeling about both of these players?

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Speaker 3: Okay, so I think there is concern they could be locked into the slot, but I also think for fantasy purposes that is probably.

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Speaker 2: More of a good thing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, looking at ronde Moore at five foot seven, it's just highly improbable, you know that he'll be an outside guy. Now, maybe he could be more of that move wide receiver in a Tyreek Kill Deebo Samuel type, you know, deployment where he gets to the jet sweeps and you know a lot of those swing passes, swing screens out of the backfield.

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Speaker 2: I think that would be a.

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Speaker 3: Perfect fit for the type of receiver he is, or you know, maybe he lands somewhere like in Arizona, you know, running a lot of those match concepts where he gets the short crossers and uh, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, has opportunity to rack up a lot of YAK.

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Speaker 3: So I don't really have concern about the type of role Rondale Moore would have. I mean, he had an insane freshman season and you know, he's literally one of the most impressive athletes you could ever hope to see, if you if you just erase the size, I guess.

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Speaker 2: Quote from that, Elijah Moore.

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Speaker 3: One of the best production profiles we've seen over the past couple of years. I really kind of think he might be a Julian Netelman type player, where you know, he can do a lot of damage in the slot, but he could operate on the outside a little bit more. I've seen some people, even you know, compare him to Antonio Brown stylistically. So I would have more hope that Elijah Moore could eventually be a perimeter weapon than Rondale.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's how I feel too.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The thing with with ron Dale, I mean, both of these guys is some degree, but the fact that I have more confidence that Elijah could could you know, play more in the outside, maybe even like a Tyler Lockett type where he's still playing a lot in the slot, but he can still play on the outside. But the one thing that I do think with these players that they might be a little bit more landing spot dependent. But I could see a situation where, you know, if one of these guys lands in a fairly high powered offense, they would just shoot up draft board rookie draft boards, you know, after the fact, because both of them are really really good prospects. So there's also Tyland Wallace, so he's sort of sometimes on the outside looking in of the guys that we've just talked about the seven players. But do you think Tyland Wallace is deserving to be in the conversation with the guys that we just talked about.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he belongs in this tier. You know, if he had if he had somehow you know, not suffered the injury there and been able to declare, you know, without spending the extra time in college, and he didn't have that e cl on his you know, on his profile, he would absolutely be, you know, right in this tier. I think universally he's getting dinged for the injury might be getting dinged for some anti Oklahoma state wide receiver big twelve wide receiver bias, which I think in some ways is fair. But you know, we should scout the player, not the helmet. Popular saying, but I think it holds a lot of weight when I look objectively. When I just look at our box score scouting tools over here at rotaviz, it suggests maybe a Stefan Diggs light type of player when you look at his college profile, his potential draft capital, and then his production, but a very safe kind of floor type comp might be an Earl Bennett.

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Speaker 2: Type where you get a couple of usable years.

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Speaker 3: Certainly don't want to say that Stefan Diggs is the closest com for any player because would be an a plus plus NFL outcome for Ton Wallace. So yeah, I think he's probably undervalued right now. And when I'm sitting in the nasty rookie draft right around that one two turn, this is the type of player, you know, I'm trying to move up from the middle or late second to grab before that tear fall off occurs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, makes total sense. So of the wide receivers that we haven't talked about today, who's your favorite wide receiver? And then I also want to throw at you, you know, deeper in your rookie drafts. We're sitting in the fourth, fifth, maybe even sixth if you go that deep round, who's sort of a dart throw wide receiver that you.

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Speaker 3: Like to Okay, So my favorite receiver we haven't talked about is actually the last wide receiver that I would include in that big Tier two that we just ran down. It's Diamie Brown out of North Carolina. Yeah, love Diamie Brown. So since two thousand, if we look just at Power five underclassmen JJ wide receivers who accumulated at least fifty receptions and managed to average twenty yards per reception on those fifty receptions in a given season. So, you know, one way of looking at this is guys who are able to amass one thousand plus yards while also averaging twenty plus yards perception. Diamie Brown appears twice on that list, but there's only been like eight different wide receivers who have done it, and they all got draft capital. Here's some of the other names. Will Fuller, James Washington, Mike Evans, Andre Johnson, Lee Evans, and Charles Rodgers, and then in this class, it's pretty cool because Diami Brown did it, Rashad Bateman did it, Jamar Chase did it. This is a list just stocked full of powerhouse prospects, and I think it's a good kind of leading indicator. You know, the type of players that he's showing up with and this type of research query is really exciting. And then for deeper in those rookie drafts, the player from a very small school that plays bigger than his size, I think he's kind of, you know, maybe the Jamison Crowder of the Conference USA, and it's Jalen Darden out of North Texas. Really like what he brings to the table, little speedster, and we've seen that profile work in the NFL before.

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Speaker 1: Awesome. Yeah, I'm a big Jalen Darden guy too. I think he's a lot of potential at the next level in the slot. But Curtis, thanks so much for hopping on and talking wide receivers with me. I really appreciate the time. For those of you who aren't following Curtis's work, you should definitely go check him out on Twitter at c Patrick NFL and while you're there, follow me on Twitter at late round QB. Now, as you heard at the top, today was episode five hundred. That's pretty cool. Before I let you go, I just wanted to thank you. Without all of you listening to this show each week, this show wouldn't exist, Like it literally would not exist. I can't thank you enough for supporting the show through the years, for sending in such great questions every week, and for pushing me to always try my best to get the best fantasy football information out there. So thanks for these five hundred. Really really appreciate it, and I hope the next five hundred are just as enjoyable. We've got a mailbag episode on Friday, so I'll talk to you then.