332: 15 Transactions for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachersajy Jake zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode three hundred and thirty two of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. It's hard to believe, but this is the last fifteen Transaction show of the season. Since the majority of you don't play during week seventeen, and since I need to also take a break from this madness, there won't be any Late Round Podcast episodes next week, but you'll get all four this week in preparation for your Fantasy championship Now. I always say that the fifteen Transactions article and podcast that I do each week is my place to brain vomit. It's my look at the fantasy landscape, and I give advice based on things that I would be doing in my fantasy leagues, and I try to put myself out there. I try not to hold anything back. Sometimes that leads to really good decisions, and sometimes it leads the bad one ones. But obviously the hope is that the good far outweighs the bad, and I really hope that you guys were able to pick up on the process along the way. The process of how to effectively buy and sell and what to look for. That process is what's gonna help you win in the long run, not my podcast where I just tell you who to trade for. I mean, I want you to still listen to the show, don't get me wrong, but we're sort of in this together. That's what I like about it. So I just want to say about this specific show, thank you. Thank you for listening all season long and taking the bad with the good, for understanding that not everything will be perfect, but it'll be perfect enough to win a fantasy championship. Now, as usual, before I get to this week's transactions, I want to remind you guys to check out odds Fire. It's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers and the regulated US market. I reference odds throughout today's show, and I got all of those odds at number fire. So check it out to compare and shop odds, check out line movement and tons more. It's all at oddsfire dot com. Add Mike Boone, so Dalvin Cook had the biggest Fantasy football related injury on Sunday. He hit the ground awkwardly and he hurt his shoulder. And because backup running back Alexander Madison was already out with an ankle injury, Mike Boone carried the ball thirteen times for fifty six yards and two touchdowns. So if Dalvin Cook and Madison miss Week sixteen, Boone will be the number one guy in this backfield and that's against Green Bay on Monday night, So he's a priority off the waiver wire this week. Add Breshod Parriman and Justin Watson. So the second biggest injury on Sunday came to Chris Godwin. He heard his hamstring and after the game, after the Bucks beat the Lions, head coach Bruce Arians said that quote, it doesn't look good. That sounds a lot like what we heard from Bruce Arians a week ago with Mike Evans, and as we know, Mike Evans is now out for the year now. I talked about Breshad Perriman on last week's show, and he came through with a five catch, one hundred and thirteen yard and three touchdown performance. I will say though I was a little bit disappointed that he didn't even hit a fifteen percent target share in that game against Detroit, but he becomes the facto top option for Jamis Winston without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and then in that game, Scotty Miller, a wide receiver who didn't play the week prior. He also injured his hamstring, so Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller all have hamstring injuries. Miller was playing ahead of Justin Watson in that game, so if Miller's out, then Justin Watson also becomes a viable option, especially this week because they get the Houston Texans ad Boston Scott. There's lots of love out there from Miles Sanders because he had an awesome performance in Week fifteen. He had one hundred and seventy two total yards and two touchdowns, but don't ignore Boston Scott, especially if you really need a running back. He was on the field a lot with Sanders. He ended up playing forty five and a half percent of Philadelphia's snaps, and because the Eagles don't have any pass catchers, Boston Scott saw a seventeen and a half percent target share so in deeper PPR formats, I do think that he's a decent enough desperation flex play ad greg Ward. So, speaking of those unhealthy past catchers for Philadelphia, Greg Ward has benefited over the last two weeks. He's seen an eighteen percent in a twenty two and a half percent target chair and he had seven point four and nineteen point one PPR points. That's not terrible. He's outplayed jj R Sega Whiteside as well, but our Sega Whiteside is still playing more snaps than Greg Ward. So let's pretend that Nelson Agilore doesn't play next week, We're gonna see a lot of jj R Sega Whiteside and Greg Ward once again. But even if we see Agalore, I think that we should see more Greg Ward than we have over the last couple of weeks, only because he's outplayed ar Sega White Side. Add Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. So the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has been really bad basically since the end of October. From week nine through this past week, their highest single game point total is just twenty and they rank dead last and scoring rate per drive. So this is all to say, I don't think you should be overly excited about Chris Conley or Keelan Cole, and he really shouldn't care about either of them. If DJ Shark is back. Both of those guys saw bigger roles on Sunday. Without DJ Chark in that lineup, Keelan Cole had a twenty one point four percent target share. Conley's was twenty nine percent. Now considering Conley was used more and he had the better line Conley's the guy that you want to add off the waiver wire, at least above Keelan Cole. But if any of you are in deeper leagues, you could add Keelan Cole because they get a decent enough matchup this week against Atlanta hold Devonte Freeman. So speaking of Atlanta, let's talk about DeVonta Freeman real quick. Some of you guys might be tempted to drop him because when he's been healthy, he hasn't exactly been winning new games. But number one, the running back position's a dumpster fire, and number two at least Freeman's been kind of consistent, at least in PPR formats, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has about a twelve percent target share when he's been active this year. He only had seven and a half points against San Francisco. I get it, but it's a tough matchup. Against the forty nine ers, he still saw eighty six percent of Atlanta's running back rushes and in Week sixteen he gets Jacksonville. When adjusted for strength of opponent, only the Panthers have been a friendlier fantasy matchup for posing run than the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I actually think Devonte Freeman's not a bad play this next week, So don't drop him after a down performance. Add Anthony Miller. I've talked about Anthony Miller on the show quite a bit over the last month or so, and he just continues to produce. And he's still only rostered in twenty six percent of Yahoo leagues. But over the last five games, Miller's averaged a twenty four point seven percent target share. He's averaging seventeen point six PPR points per game, and he's scored at least eleven point four points and every single game played over this five game stretch. Now having no Taylor Gabriel, having Taylor Gabriel sideline with this concussion has been helpful for Anthony Miller's production. We don't know if Taylor Gabriel is gonna come back, but this week they should have a pass heavy script against Kansas City and that should benefit Anthony Miller. Drop Tevin Coleman. So I'm sort of using this transaction to let you guys not to just drop running back handcuffs. But I'm mentioning Tevin Coleman specifically because he hasn't hit a twenty percent running back rush share and back to back games. Now, this is Raheem Moster's backfield, or at least Raheem Moster is the guy that you want in this backfield. But you don't need handcuffs right now. There's only one week left. Someone could get hurt during practice, but you're better off trying to block an opponent with a player rather than just holding onto a handcuff. So, like I said, this transaction isn't just about Tevin Coleman, It's about holding handcuffs. Add Dion Lewis. Now to this point, you should be dropping unusable handcuffs. Don't get rid of players who are behind injured starters like we're seeing with Dion Lewis right now, now on Sunday, for the first time in over a month, Derek Henry didn't post a top ten fantasy performance at the running back position. Part of that was because of a negative game script that forced Dion Lewis to be on the field because he's a pass catcher of the two backs, but Derek Henry is also banged up. It was a second game in a row where he failed to play sixty percent or more of Tennessee snaps. Now, considering the Titans are in must win mode, they have to win. I think Dereck Henry is going to play this week. But even still, if he doesn't play, Dion Lewis becomes viable. He should be added off the wire add Danny Amadola. So chances are a lot of you guys are probably not going to play someone like Danny Amandola in the Fantasy Football Championship. They're facing the Broncos this week. But I still have to point out that Amadola's usage has been nice over the last three weeks and this past week with Marvin Jones officially on ir, Amandola saw thirty percent of Detroit's targets. That's his third straight game with twenty one percent or more of the Lions targets. So again, you're unlikely to play Danny Amadola this week, but I think it's important to call out that uptick and volume add Ryan Fitzpatrick. So it's another week of quarterback streaming, and it's another week of recommending Ryan Fitzpatrick. According to Yahoo's percent rostered numbers, Fitzpatrick's still out there in seventy five percent of leagues. But this is despite the fact that since taking over his starter in Week seven, he's averaged eighteen and a half Fantasy points per game. Over this stretch, he's averaging more fantasy points per game than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray. There's a lot of other passers too, and in Week sixteen, the Dolphins get another good matchup against Cincinnati. According to Fandels Sportsbook, that game has a forty six and a half point over under. That's not bad, and Cincinnati ranks is the ninth best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks when adjusted for strength of opponent and Andy Dalton. You could look to the other side of that matchup and look at Andy Dalton. I prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I think Andy Dalton is viable. Miami's allowed four point four points above expectation to oppose in quarterbacks this year. To put this another way, quarterbacks have essentially gotten a four point four point bump when they've played against Miami this year. Dalton's been bad from a fantasy perspective since he's come back, and he's now the starter again for the Cincinnati Bengals. I get it, that's why I like Fitzpatrick Moore, but given the matchup, he's not the worst streamer in the world. Add Mike Gasicki. So you're probably sick of me talking about Mike Gasicki by now. I think I've talked about him for the pas last like five weeks on this show. But he keeps seeing work and people aren't rostering him. He's now seen a double digit percentage target share in seven straight games. He had nineteen and a half percent of the team's targets this past week. His average target share per game is above seventeen percent during this time, and in Week sixteen he gets that Bengals matchup. They've been fining against tight ends. But you have to like the environment for scoring or potential scoring because Miami shouldn't have that much trouble moving the ball. Add the Indianapolis Colts defense. So it's week sixteen, there's not any buy sells. It's kind of a boring week overall for this podcast. So I'm just gonna go through three defenses that you could potentially stream. The first one is Indianapolis. They're playing at home. That's a plus, and they get Carolina, which is also a plus. It does sound like Will Greer is going to start for the Panthers, but I don't really care who's under center. It's a plus matchup regardless. Since Week eight, defenses against the Panthers have scored an average of eleven and a half standard Fantasy points per game, and none of those defenses have ranked worse than seven teenth and weekly defensive scoring. The Colts are six and a half point favorites. They should be playing with a positive game script. I think that they're fine from a fantasy standpoint. Add the Denver Broncos defense, so Denver's probably the safer and better option than Indianapolis. This week, they're playing at home against Detroit and their seven point favorites. According to Fanduels Sportsbook, David Blough's taking at least two sacks in each of his three starts, and over the last two weeks, Detroit's alloted of top five defensive performance in fantasy football with a low over under of just thirty seven and a half. I think that you should feel good about the Broncos defense. Now. The sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my weekly fifteen transactions column overrun number fire dot Com is to add the Atlanta Falcons defense. It's a deeper ad this week, but I actually like the Falcons. They're playing at home, and like I talked about earlier, they're facing a Jacksonville team that's been one of the worst offenses in football over the last two months. Despite facing only one top ten defense since Week nine, Jacksonville's allowed ten point eight fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Defense is going up against Jacksonville this year have scored one and a half more points than their season long averages. That's a pretty strong number, and that's only gotten better as the season's gone on. Atlanta's a touchdown favorite according to Fandles Sportsbook, and that makes them a good streaming option because your league mates probably aren't gonna be gunning for them, so I don't mind Atlanta as a deeper play, And since this is the last fifteen transactions episode of the season, I'll give you a seventeenth transaction add carry on Johnson. It sounds like he could be back this week, and maybe you're really thin at running back and you want to risk playing him. Evidently he hasn't had issues in practice. It's not the best matchup in the world, but we know he's a good player at least, so maybe you want a risk using Carrie on Johnson. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten trend show. H