The Show: Veteran NFL Draft Losers, Mike McDaniel's Offense, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern without further ado.

00:00:17
Speaker 2: Here's this week's episode, Welcome In. Welcome In David Kitchen alongside CEO JJ exactly reeson.

00:00:39
Speaker 1: You went back to it. Huh, Yeah, I felt like it was just for at the moment. Yeah, how's it going. It's I mean it's going. We got a lot of stuff happening. We do a Fantasy football Yes, we do.

00:00:55
Speaker 2: Fantasy Football World. We got some news and notes we got to talk about. Uh so, you know, we we've got the schedule release happening tomorrow night.

00:01:07
Speaker 1: But we've had some leakages and so that's how we're referring to it.

00:01:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, leakages. So we've got some leakages as far as the the schedule goes international games. It's one interesting note. I think we can kind of take away from a schedule leak and also obviously we've got the Prospect Guide out, a few things. Sign up for the newsletter. I mean, that's the big important step that you need to take today if you're listening.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, we can see how the numbers change with the newsletter. Guys, we know that not all of you are signing up right now for the newsletter.

00:01:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, so so sign up for the newsletter because JJ, you had a banger episod SOWD yesterday with the nil and you wrote an email that hit people's inboxes this morning, and you just you don't want to miss anything that we have coming out with a newsletter and take that for whatever you know, however you may as far as like anything that could be happening.

00:02:20
Speaker 1: Yes, agreed. And Brandon Godoula has done an awesome job. Yeah, with the newsletter. He's been he's been the baseline of the newsletter, you know, throughout the off season so far. But you're gonna want to also sign up because in season we send stuff, and in season you typically get the fifteen Transactions newsletter and you get the data Dump newsletter. But this year we're gonna have even more because Brandon's around. So you'll definitely want to be subscribed at the very least for the end season stuff. It's also a really easy way to like, I know, we sound like a PBS or something like that right now, where I'm just trying to get some some funding or something like that. You don't even have to give me a dollar. I'm just saying, go sign up for the newsletter. It's free, but it helps us as a business. It helps us, and and open it whenever you get it too. You can do that as well. Yeah, yeah, no we're not. You know, it's not like Wikipedia, like light Round's going to shut down if you don't donate. Uh look, I'm you guys know how I am with the pricing of stuff, and like I'm it probably it's probably bad business to act the way that I do about some of this stuff. But like when it comes to you know, I get you know, if people are like, hey, I want to support a creator that you know, I've used the advice, right, you know, listen to the podcast whatever the case. Maybe the easiest way to do that is to obviously subscribe to like the channel and to you know, podcasts and stuff, but just do anything that you can for free, like the newsletter. You know, I'm not you don't what to There's no transaction that has to happen just just you know, go that direction.

00:03:46
Speaker 2: Vinegar and salted fry, says the JJ campaign contribution.

00:03:50
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, not tax deductible.

00:03:53
Speaker 2: But speaking of comments, again, for those that are here on Wednesdays at noon, we appreciate you. We've got Fergs first FERG four one three nine First Live Show. Love the football sports themed backgrounds that you both have. I think that's like actual backgrounds, Yeah, actual backgrounds behind Yeah.

00:04:15
Speaker 1: I don't have any football trophy in the background. Ever since I uh, ever since I changed my camera. It's way better camera obviously, but like ever since I changed the camera, you know, it blurs out the background a little bit. I used to get way more questions about like the Funko pops behind me, about the stuff that was behind me, and and I don't anymore, which probably a good thing in the end, probably probably better than not. But you can see I have back here kitchen two little bobble heads. Yeah, those are bobbleheads of my children.

00:04:48
Speaker 2: Oh they're kind of blurred out, but I can see, I can kind of see.

00:04:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a bobblehead of my children. Do you know what? I have a babble ahead of probably you kind of this is the official bobblehead. Oh it's that kind of you, because look, what is a kitchen? What is it though? A lemon? You? No, it's a pickleball.

00:05:10
Speaker 2: This is the official three D and twenty six of twenty twenty three from the Bubblehead Hall of Fame. So when it came out to the first pickleball bubble head and its name was Kitchen, I was like.

00:05:23
Speaker 1: Like that, that's not like a like a you know, like all twenty twenty three of these have the name kitchen on them. Oh wow, you had to do that. If I. If I, if there's a bobblehead made it said Zacher reeson on it, I would definitely buy it, you know, or j J. But no. So, like I had, some of my my in laws gave me a gift card because they know that I have all this stuff behind me and they're very thoughtful with their gift giving. Yeah, give me a gift card to some like bobblehead place, and I'm like, I can't get it of me. That's weird. I feel really awkward doing that. So I was like, you know what, I'm gonna get the children bobblehead. And when we got it, they they do look a lot like them, and uh, you know, they laughed and they liked it and stuff. But at one point I said to my wife, I said, man, this, uh, this looks a little bit creepy, like like one of them. And I said that my three year old could hear cj could hear it? Oh? No, Literally two weeks ago he's coming into my I was working. He came into my office before bed. You know, it was just one of those nights. I think it was like a round draft time and stuff where I was just working a lot and he comes in and he's, you know, giving me a hug, good night and stuff. It was just the routine. And he looks up at the at the bibbleheads. He goes, man, that one's creepy. So yeah, I won't be showing you the full thing, but you can just know that I am representing my children behind me.

00:06:39
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I'm sure children. Oh yeah, I've got some. You know, I'm sure something back there with my kids.

00:06:45
Speaker 1: Chad just said, wait, did that one just turn its head? Uh? Jake says, either of you guys are in scott Fish Bawl this year? Of course, we love the scott Fish Bowl. Mark says West Coast, Dads, West Coast, I just woke up right exactly.

00:07:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, And Jay Kwan was saying that what's up Jaquon and the voice and Foygo says, hey, I get to join Live. Yay me.

00:07:09
Speaker 1: I love when people join live. It's so much more fun.

00:07:12
Speaker 2: Yes, And to that point, JJ, next week we will not be at Wednesday.

00:07:16
Speaker 1: We'll be on Tuesday. We will Yeah, I'm traveling next week, so we're gonna do a Tuesday show. You guys will still get the three shows next week, so not much is changing on that end. But yes, next week we are indeed doing it on Tuesday at noon instead of Wednesday. That's correct.

00:07:35
Speaker 2: So excited for that show on Tuesday. Excited to get started with this episode. So without further ado, let's get do this in today's news, Today's Fantasy news. All right, we got the schedule leaking. Are you like every year they do it differently? You know, I talked about it in the newsletter, the Friday newsletter. Do you get excited for the schedule leaking?

00:08:00
Speaker 1: No, genuinely, I don't care at all. But the team videos and videos are fun. The team videos can be fun, can be fun Okay, they could be cringe too, but ninety percent of them are terrible. The Chargers are always pretty fire, you know, the Titans are always good when they go on Broadway, you know, when they when they do that kind of stuff. But yeah, I mean most of them are cringe. I'm I'm interested in seeing the sort of scandal related things going on in the NFL and how they make their way into these videos. I am excited for that. Like there is there is a obviously a very major story that's gone on throughout the off season that you know, this isn't the show to talk about that kind of drama. But I am interested in seeing how social media teams are reacting and digging at a team that might be you know, we're talking about you and spreadsheet bros. Or yeah, yes, exactly, I'm talking about me and the spreadsheet bros. Out there. Yes, that that that don't want to have conversation on Twitter. That's that's what I'm acting.

00:09:01
Speaker 2: There are some storylines out there. It'll be I've.

00:09:05
Speaker 1: Had a bizarre four days on Twitter. I'll tell you what.

00:09:09
Speaker 3: My goodness, I'm just gonna go ahead and assume that today's data is related to something I mean technically, yeah, yeah, all right, speaking of that schedule leaking, though we have the International Games, which I.

00:09:25
Speaker 1: Don't really care obviously by the International Games.

00:09:30
Speaker 2: I do care though that they put the Broncos and Chiefs week one for that Thursday night game. Yeah, which leads you to believe, JJ that they think Patrick Mahomes is going to start.

00:09:45
Speaker 1: This season here. Okay, So like I don't disagree for sure, Like I think that's a logical conclusion to make. My thing is like schedule makers slash the NFL. Are they having conversations with doctors and team doctors? I genuinely don't know. I have no idea. I'm asked this and the last time I asked a question it went sideways. Okay, So I'm trying to approach this in a very you know, middle of the road. I don't have an opinion here perspective. I'm trying to trying to learn, okay, trying to get better. Do do schedule makers in the league talk to teams and doctors to know what the recovery looks like? I have no idea. I would I would say though, that yes, we should feel pretty good about Patrick Mahomes playing an opener if they're going to feature it the way they're featuring it. Although they still have a really fun and dynamic player behind them right now in Justin Fields, that alone would still sell, you know, be a selling point. I think Justin Fields playing in you know that Kansas City offense in week one.

00:10:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, Taylor cheering on Justin Fields from the box for sure would Yeah.

00:10:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, that certainly won't go south.

00:10:54
Speaker 2: Okay, JJ JJ's a Viking, as in Juan Jennings is Viking. This was announced last week a little bit after we concluded the show. But your thoughts about.

00:11:08
Speaker 1: JJ Juwan Jennings as a Viking. I think Juwan Jennings is a good player and a good wide receiver, and he's shown us these spiked weeks and stuff. But it was when he was playing specific roles in Kyle Shanahan's offense where I think, you know, in Minnesota, he's not going to be playing that role without injury, and we'll see him a lot in the slot, I would imagine. But but you have three guys who can kind of rotate and play everywhere across the formation, you know you're gonna want that flexibility. They needed someone there. I mean, I think ty Felton was their wide receiver three before this move, and he was not a good prospect. I mean, like you want to talk about players when the picks happened, like last year, I remember when Arion Smith happened to the Jets in the early four like mid fourth round or whatever it was. It was an immediate what is going on here? You know, like did I feel it a little bit with like a design shribbling where he went? Sure, but at least there was a little bit more going on there. The ty Felton, the Arian Smith, it was like on another level in terms of.

00:12:12
Speaker 2: The DK was another one, but we understood that at least he was a special teams guy.

00:12:18
Speaker 1: Who oh yeah, yeah, yeah, Jim Ray DK. Yeah. But d K even had like some interesting analytical marks to his profile, I remember, And it was like the opposite with like Lkia man Or, who we all thought was going to be more of a Day two pick, but you know, they needed the wide receiver depth. I think Juwan Jennings fills a really key role in real football in fantasy. I mean, you could throw a late round dart if you want to in a Viking snack and then you know Obviously there's injury upside and such, but you're talking about a team that we know twenty five percent plus the target shaer is going to go to Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison is a very good wide receiver, and you know he'll command probably a twenty percent and then t J. Howkinson still there. I don't I don't think that he's as much of a threat, but they still have you know, Aaron Jones, the pass catcher back there in the backfield. I mean, there's a there's enough going on where Juwan Jennings, it's probably be pretty difficult for him to see over like a fifteen percent target year in the offense with everybody healthy, and that's in an offense where we don't know for sure. I like Kyler. I've been drafting Kyler. I think he's a good pick this year, but we don't know for sure how that's gonna that's gonna go down. So I think he's a slot player for them. I think he's more in natural sort of in that in that position, especially you because he's not like the biggest separator, and but he's he's a very good like he could be like an inline blocker for them. Also, I want to say he's also a good run blocker.

00:13:38
Speaker 2: I mean, I think this is good for the Vikings in general, their office in general. I was bullish on Kyler, like you, We've talked about it on this show. Yeah, but as far as like the run game, I feel like it helps their offense a little bit.

00:13:54
Speaker 1: The funny thing. The funny thing is that I think that the forty nine Ers drafted design I know that I keep going back to this, but they drafted design Shribbling because of his blocking. Like, I think that was a huge reason as to why they picked him where they picked him. And there was a Rotal World headline before we hopped on that was something along the lines of like forty nine ers to use Deson stribbling down the field for blocking is what the headline was. And I'm thinking to myself, like, if you're a forty nine Ers fan and the early second round pick that your team took at wide receiver, that's the headline that you're reading. Do you feel good about that pick right now? You know? Do you feel confident in the way that things are going to go here? And I think the answer is like, yeah, he probably should have been a third round pick instead of a second round pick. I probably could have got him or at least trained down. But regardless where we're past that conversation, people are sick of it. Although I've gotten more positive feedback from people about those conversations and the deep dives and the reaching and stuff like that, then no one's really said anything negative about it. They said, like, oh, it's really because I do find it, like very interesting, the topic of reaching for players big board, because I don't think there's a definitive answer. And when there's not a definitive answer with something, that's what we should be digging into to try to find, you know, as much concrete evidence as we possibly can. But Juwan Jennings not someone I'm like, especially in like a managed season long league. I think that you should stay on the waiver wire. But you know, best ball, you can throw that late round dart if you're if you're in this Viking stacks. Okay from Jennings.

00:15:18
Speaker 2: By the way, Jennings reportedly you know he signed a thirteen million dollar I think one year deal, like approve it deal.

00:15:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the other Yeah, he left some money on the table.

00:15:28
Speaker 2: He turned down seventeen million dollar multi year deal with the forty nine ers for the season. So the one thing about Jennings, he's a dog, So I do wonder if he's gonna come out just firing. Yeah, all right, David and Joku a charger.

00:15:46
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I obviously, like from a from the perspective of you know, what it means for fantasy football, Like it's not a good thing for you know, like a like an Aronde Gaston who were hoping to have a year or two breakout or you know. But but here, here's how I viewed this move. And I'm I was gonna pull up some data, but I'll just go off of like what's in my heart. You posted some of this in the a little bit of it, so in the chat. Yeah. So so Mike McDaniel in Miami he was bottom five and eleven personnel usage every single year that he was there. Now, obviously personnel and the you know, the the quality of player that you have a wide receiver is going to dictate that eleven personnel being three wide receiver sets. So if you have bad third wide receivers, then you're probably gonna want to run you know, only two wide receivers on the Field, Jalen Wattle, Tyreek Hill, and then that's part of the reason that we ended up seeing John hu Smith do what he did that one, especially the second half of that year a couple of years ago, because it was it was just a very friendly offense for something like that to happen. But they had it's like they had these like amazing pass catching tight ends at times. Either it's just that they had very good wide receivers at two of them. And then you get heavier personnel, you can do more in the run game, et cetera, et cetera. The Chargers have got brought on a full back, They've got they signed Charlie Kohler Kohlar I A would say his name wrong. And then they obviously already have Gadsden, and then they get David and Joku, and in my opinion, this is just sort of leaning towards Okay, this team is probably gonna be pretty heavy. That's what the meta is turning into in the NFL in general. And so they wanted more depth at tight end because they have a blocking tight end. They gave a decent amount of money too, but they've a blocking tight end, and then they have this move piece that they have not really you know, we haven't seen a ton of that. We don't know if he's going to really develop as like a full blown tight end. But my gosh, we know that Deronde Gatston is a good pass catcher, and so they probably just wanted some depth and some ability to move these pieces around and to be flexible in the end. Now, do I think that this impacts Aronde Gadson's fantasy value? Of course, because David and Joku being another body means that Ronde Gatston being a viable body. I think David and Joku's on the on the wrong side of his age curve. Like I think that that he's not going to be the same kind of player that he that he's been before. I like David and Joku, but I also think that that there have been times the fantasy community has overrated him to a degree as well, Like he's a freak for sure, and he's one of those guys where like last year when the Browns got Harold Fannin, you could see the pairing making sense because Fannin is more of that like move around the line and into the backfield and get these short targets and do stuff after the catch, wheresk and Djoku's the straight line get him down the field like he can make those kinds of plays. Arondi Gatson can do that too, and so and I think Arondie Gatson, like if you were to just pair them up, like, there's more pass catching upside for Ronde Gatson than there is David and Joku. And when you get into the late parts of your draft, of your fantasy draft, you should be shooting for that upside. You don't want to tight end. You know, Gatson's probably me like tight end seventeen or something now right, you don't want your tight end seventeen or in Djoku you're tight end twenty two to turn into the tight end eighteen. That doesn't do anything for your fantasy roster. You need the upside case. So, in my opinion, the TLDR here is that I think we're gonna see heavy personnel usage, probably not to the degree that McDaniel did things in Miami, simply because I think there's a little bit more depth and interest at wide receiver in LA right now than there was at depth wise, not like top you know it, it's not as top heavy, but depth wise, and they got Brendan Thompson. They're probably gonna want to use him at times throughout the year and stuff, and so like there's enough of that going on, but they are. It does point to them being heavier, which makes me even more I've been drafting a lot of lad mconkie. I love that range of wide receivers in early drafts. You know, the Luther Burdens, the lad mcconkey's, the uh, you know, a Mecha buca like whoever. I just I think Azay Flowers, like a lot of those wide receivers are just very very good, right and so, and I don't see a material difference between them and a guy you might get around earlier in like a Chris A Lave. I think a Lave sort of belongs in that tier or they have similar upside cases. So my opinion is that like when you get these to these these heavier personnel sets. I talked about this to start the off season with the death of the wide receiver too, and you know I talked about it and the death of the slot wide receiver all that kind of stuff. When you get these heavier persons, you have fewer wide receivers on the field, and there has been data that shows that yards parow run rates and effectiveness go up whenever these wide receivers have fewer wide receivers to compete with on the field. Like early career, Drake London had a really I mean he still does, but had a really absurd yards perou run rate when Arthur Smith was their coach. Because when Arthur Smith was their coach, they ran a lot Arthur what you want about Arthur Smith, he was kind of ahead of the game and thinking this way about the way that the NFL was shifting and more.

00:21:06
Speaker 2: People did not expect Arthur Smith love on this. But yeah, since we're saying that he also was a good offensive cornator for the Titan, I don't think.

00:21:15
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith is nearly as bad as a coach as other people think at this point. I don't think that he's I think that he is not good enough with understanding the the talent that he has on his particular teams and talent, but I think high level he has the right ideas at times and so so regardless, Drake London had great yards perrow run rates. He's obviously very good, but they were inflated a little bit because he's competing against you know, uh, two tight ends and then other wide receivers are only one other wide receiver. When you get more, you know, eleven personnel, et cetera, it's harder to compete with other wide receivers because they're better target getters in general. And that's why JSN last year, you know, was able to get the target. Part of the reason why he was able to do what he did because because you know, if you get heavier personnel and you have weaker competition, then all of a sudden, that target share can spike. So that's what interests me in Lab McConkie is I think McConkie can play inside out, and I think that he is the best wide receiver on that Chargers team. And I think you should still be throwing darts at Quentin Johnston and even Trey Harrison like the final rounds if you want to, because again, there's an environment that we should want to invest in.

00:22:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess that's that's the scary thing, is that that environment there are so many options that, like you talk about running back. Of course they have a Marion Hampton, but they also have Keaton Mitchell. Now with Kamani about l yeah, but I think they got two tight ends.

00:22:37
Speaker 1: There's a very real like I'm I'm, I do think that like Chase Brown should go ahead of a Mari and Hampton in drafts like pretty comfortably, and he doesn't. All the time. It's changing a little bit, we're seeing it happen more. But like I do think Hampton is you know, I have clicked his name plenty, he falls in the third round plenty and I still and I'll get him there a lot, but because I think the upside's crazy. But you know, it's one of those things where like like I'm probably gonna be like neutral on Hampton this year probably you know, right now in May. That's all I'm viewing it. But like Keith Mitchell, yeah, I'm gonna probably have him as a dart throw or Ronda Gadson. I'll probably still have him as a dart throw if his ADP does fall to a place where it's in that dart throw territory, because I do think there's more upside with that kind of profile, that pass catching profile, because I mean, he's younger, he's he's showed off his rookie season, that he's agile, that he's got past catching chops. He did that throughout college too, Like he's a he was a good prospect. I know that he fell in the draft, but he was a good prospect. And it came together last year at least for a stretch. And now that they have a better offensive line hypothetically with these guys coming back, then all of a sudden, that can open things up for one of those types of tight ends to move out a little bit more, to not just be in line blocking all the time. So to me, it's a really solid move for the Chargers, like a good football move. I don't think it just means that Aronda Gaston's toast. I think that Gaston can still be a viable tight end in this offense, because yes, there's a lot of mouths defeat if you will. But I don't know, man, I don't think that the Chargers talent wise are like out of control at like pass catcher like I like David and Joku is fine. Quentin Johnston, we don't even know still after like three years. Trey Harris, he was terrible last year from an from an analytical perspective, like he didn't he didn't put up the numbers that we would want a play. I thought he looked better down the stretch, but he didn't put up the numbers that we would want him to put up as a rookie. So like there's a lot of question marks there, which is why I'm gravitating towards Lad because we know with Lad. And then it's why I think that we should still be throwing darts at these guys, because the prices aren't substantially high for how good this offense might end up being.

00:24:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, and maybe the answer is I just looked it up on DK, but justin Herbert, is I have so much justin Herbert, Well, he's plus one thousand for MVP on DK, so that might just be away to Hedge not knowing who is.

00:25:03
Speaker 1: And you can go you in bastball, you can go naked Herbert because you can still get QJ and Trey Harris and Gadsdon, et cetera. Brennan Thompson, Yeah, Brennan Thompson, if you want to, all.

00:25:13
Speaker 2: Right, this is a little bit of more of some investigative work that we might have to do. Kyle Williams announced that he was switching to eight from eighteen. Now that is not happening, guess who was number eight.

00:25:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the Stefan Diggs thing. Yeah right, that's what that's what we're getting at. Yeah, yeah, maybe A J. Brown wants to wear eight, who knows.

00:25:35
Speaker 2: I thought about that, Like why would he switch for elet I think there's some sort of reason why he has eleven, like he was eleven.

00:25:43
Speaker 1: There's some sort of like sentimental reason why he's eleven. Yeah, I mean, so I I think that they're like there there's stronger rumors of Diggs going to Washington and because he's from that area. Yeah, played at Maryland, right, and so I I think and like, do I think Diggs would fit there? Sure enough? I think that Digs should be more slot moving forward than inside out. And Washington already has Antonio Williams that they drafted and stuff, so like they I mean, Washington realistically, if Brandon I you had it together, he'd be really perfect for what Washington needs, like they would be. I mean, if if we get like Peak IUK in Washington, that would be insane, that'd be all of a sudden, they'd have like a really competent pass catching. Its just it's tough to figure out. Like he left forty million on the table last year just from not cunning. Yeah, I mean it's hard to know what's going on with Brandon and Iyu, right, yeah and so yeah, so like maybe there's something there with stuff on Digs. I'm not gonna look too much into it. Maybe Kindle would have just had to change of heart, you know, maybe he's like, you know what, Diggs. Diggs was my mentor. I can't do that to my mentor. I'm sure that's.

00:26:50
Speaker 2: All it was, all right, Bucky Irving not clear to participate yet a little bit of warning alarm bills.

00:26:59
Speaker 1: Maybe it's the mixing thing from last year. But like I feels like I'm more cautious now on these sort of reports. Yeah. At the same time, I think that I made a huge I made some big mistakes last year, leaning into you know, uh camp injuries and you know, stuff going on in July and August, like Stafford's you know injury. I was so high on the rams path. I had so much Puka, I had so much Stafford, I had so much Davante in Best Ball from you know, from May through like mid July, and then I backed off a little bit. And I was so mad about that because obviously that was one of the offenses that that really crushed for us, and so like and then like Devon a Chan, same exact deal, and then I started getting into like Ali Gordon and stuff like that. So like, I'm trying to not overreact to this kind of thing. What I will say about Bucky in particular is that we already had red flags that had to do with football with him, where not him as a player, but the situation where they Sean Tucker JN. Tucker I think is one of the best twentieth round clicks in the nineteenth round clicks on draftings right now. Kenneth Gainwell I think is a really cable pass catcher. He showed that last year. And Bucky Irving could be like an in between the twenties kind of player, which is what is fine for real football but terrible for fantasy football. And so I'm worried about that. And then I'm also, you know, admittedly like he seemed like the way it was reported and what I had read about it, it seemed like he had that injury last year and it was a mental health thing to get back right where he couldn't quite get there mentally to get on the field and you know, perform the way that he wants to perform. And that's that's always the untold story about athlete injuries, right where they got to go through so much to come back and then once you come back, especially off like a major injury like an ACL or not to say that this is what this is, but you might not have the confidence that you had before, you know, and that matters tremendously when you're going to do anything. It's just your confidence and being able to do that thing. And so with Bucky, I think we have to keep that in the back of our mind too, is that he went through an injury where it wasn't easy on him. And I'm not saying that it should have been easy on him, like you know, like everyone's gonna deal with that thing, that that kind of thing differently, and we have to, but we have to be open minded to that from like a fantasy perspective that that it could go down that path as well. So not a good thing for sure. I haven't really been aggressive with Bucky so far. If you guys want like a take you know, to take away here, have been super aggressive with Bucky because I think there's like some more interesting wide receivers in that range typically, But yeah, hopefully he gets back on the field too, because I think it's a really dynamic and fun player to watch. I don't know if you saw.

00:29:43
Speaker 2: They were interviewing Kevin Patullo, the who used to be the Eagles Offen Sporting or now he's with the Dolphins, and he's said he's excited for a chan once he's healthy and ready to roll, and people are like, what he's not healthy?

00:29:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, right right? It didn't know?

00:30:00
Speaker 2: So this is that that time of year, all right, our good buddy and becoming a bestball bro. Host Rich Ryan noted Jets fan hosted a picture in the the chat Omar Cooper.

00:30:16
Speaker 1: With the starters yesterday. Are you I mean, does that do anything for you? No, I'm I think it's the expectation. Arian Smith is terrible and and ad Ni Mitchell. I don't know if ad Night Mitchell was in the in the picture, but I still think there's a very real chance that ad Ni Mitchell runs as their ex and Garrett Wilson is their Z can play Why and then Omar Cooper, you know, is definitely Why. And that's where you know he's he's more of that slot player. And but the problem with that is that Frank Reich really likes heavier personnel, runs a lot of two tight end sets, and that can push out a guy like Cooper if they if they do view ad Ni Mitchell as that ex player. We've seen this kind of thing happen in the past, where like we're just assuming the rookie would step in and kind of take that Like look at Kyle Williams, the guy on this list, Kyle Williams last year, where we're like, yeah, I mean, who else is going to be there? They just have guys who have been you know, Mac Hollins, by way, we'd be worried about, well, Mac Collins playing a lot more X than Kyle Williams did last year. And it's the same deal with ad Ni Mitchell. With Omar Cooper, ad Ni Mitchell I thought like flashed last year, like didn't look terrible. There's been a lot of interesting quotes from like opponents that he's faced and like teams, like teammates and stuff saying that he's got the tools, which you know, I think from an athleticism standpoint, that's never been a question. It was more of the production profile on College for me, but I you know, I don't think Cooper from a prospecting standpoint, was an undeniable talent. I thought that he was fine, but I didn't see him like almost any other wide receiver in this class outside of you know, the top four. I kind of saw Omar Cooper as just like he's fine, like he's he could be a Rashi Rice type player in the league. But Rashee Rice has the perfect environment, and I don't think that Omar Cooper has that environment.

00:31:58
Speaker 2: I'm glad you said X because we'll just trolling down to ted Hurst the X fact.

00:32:06
Speaker 1: Does that excite you? Yeah? So, I mean I've seen okay, so a Mecca, Buka the Z.

00:32:12
Speaker 2: This is from the Nolfins Cordner yesterday, Zach Robinson saying a Mecca is going to play primarily the Z and ted Hurst is going to be the uh the X.

00:32:22
Speaker 1: Yes. So also in chat we're seeing I saw Cooper played outside his junior year extensively. I get it, like I understand that I'm saying how we're generally projecting like I think he can he can play outside, inside, pretty much all over the formation. But what I'm saying is that they have ad Ni Mitchell, who is very much a perimeter X receiver, like that is what ad Ni Mitchell generally does. He could just beat out ad Ni Mitchell. I'm not saying that that won't happen. I think that range of outcomes wise, I'm projecting that. I'm just saying that we can't lose sight of the fact that that's not a guarantee. That's what I really mean. So with with ted Hurst, I liked Hurst as like an upside prospect, but it's there's there's some like serious truthers out there. I was ahead of the market with my adp with ted Hurst because I've gotten him on plenty of teams. So don't take this as like a I'm a hater, because I'm not. But when you look at his analytical profile, yes there was a you squint. Nico Collins is kind of a comp like it's it's and that's intriguing, okay, But but he played it a smaller program and his numbers really weren't like blowing you away, and and you were not the best play yeah, and you want numbers at those smaller programs to blow you away. In order for these players to generally hit the go to smaller programs. Uh. With that being said, I think that with Ted Hurst and what I took from the quotes and what they're saying is not so much that he's going to start as the X, but more so that they're playing him and developing him in that role, because Tampa Bay for years has just been like Mike Evans, all right, we're good, we don't have to worry about this, And they're drafting slot guy after slot guy and they're just throwing them on at the Z and they're just doing all and and like they're they're moving these guys around and not really worrying about archetype at wide receiver. And it's good that they're actually having these thoughts right now. Zach Robinson in company. But I took this more as Hurst Hurst has the upside to be their ex to step in for that in that Mike Evans role if you will, you know a Mecca Buca can can obviously rotate. And Chris Godwin, I'll tell you this kitchen, I've drafted so much more Chris Godwin than I ever imagined this year. Like he he to me is so unbelievably undervalued in Best Ball drafts right now I've gotten so I think I'm at like thirty five percent.

00:34:46
Speaker 2: Chris Godwin Yeah, And honestly, and Mecca kind of scares me where he's going.

00:34:49
Speaker 1: He's because there's more of an opportunity cost. Chris Godwin goes after every good wide receiver is basically off the board, you know, like you're you're, You're, There's just there's only upside with where specially you go running back heavy and so so I think Godwin can play the slot, which is gonna be a very valuable role, and then Abuka you know, will play both there and then Z and then they'll probably rotate in. Jalen McMillan a good bit too, like he's the forgotten one here. And if this news is gonna push Jalen McMillan down draft boards even more, I'm kind of intrigued because he's at least flash at times. He's been a lot like Jalen McMillan's the perfect sort of like litmus test if you were to ask somebody like, did this player out perform where he was drafted in the NFL draft, Because a lot of people will probably be like Jalen macmillan, No way Jalen McMillan for his draft cost has been way better than what anyone has would would expect as a median from a player being drafted in that spot, and he's shown that he can play. He was a slot guy coming out, that's just how everyone thought that he would be and what he would do. He's played in the outside, He's had experience doing that. I don't think it's just a lock that ted Hurst plays the ex immediately. Do you like, should you throw darts in rookie drafts? Of course, one hundred percent. Like it was a really weak class and there's a reason why I had him ranked the head of ADP. But from a season long perspective, I'm still expecting Jalen McMillan to be sprinkled in there.

00:36:09
Speaker 2: All Right, we've spent quite a bit of time talking about news us Breese Hall InCD a three year deal. All right to those Breese Hall fantasy dynasty, man, they have.

00:36:20
Speaker 1: A lot of Look, they have a lot of draft capital for next year. They can they're gonna get a quarterback next year, so they'll they'll you know, the things could change there you go.

00:36:28
Speaker 2: Uh and Steelers apparently they are stripping Drew Aller down of everything he's ever learned at Penn State. And they're re uploading, is what they said, reinstalling, So.

00:36:40
Speaker 1: They he's like a Nintendo video game cartridge. It's like a really good video game and then you're just you're blown into it and you gotta you gotta hope it works. You know that they're they're they're blowing into it right now. I almost made that analogy. I was afraid, did you was? I was? I? I like, I almost tweeted it before before the show. I'm glad you didn't.

00:36:59
Speaker 2: You probably would have got some phrasing replies probably, Yeah. So all right, and then Aaron Rodgers, who knows whatever. We've talked too much about him anyway. So with that being said, let's move on to today's data.

00:37:14
Speaker 1: Today's data. All right, JJ, what are we looking at here? I'll go through this fast. So this is just a continuation of what you guys heard on that NIL episode and what you saw. And these are charts that what you could have seen in the newsletter this week. It's talking about average age per draft class of what we've seen in the app model database. So the chart is showing you the age of each running back, wide receiver, and tight end class. The average age of all players in the app model database. That includes guys who are undrafted. It's guys who went to the combine or who were drafted. And you can see especially the wide receiver line. Look at the orange line. After twenty twenty, it's just going up and up and up and up. And the reason for that is transfer rules, the eligibility stuff with COVID and nil, right, because they're staying in the league a year longer. And you've seen it. You know, running back's gotten generally. You know, twenty twenty five we had a younger running back class versus the average over the last fifteen or so years. But it was also a good running back class, you know, and that's why we were saying it was a good running back class. The year before that terrible running back class way older. Right, So you're seeing general trends. You can look at the table to the right. You're seeing general trends where running back has increased in age by about point two years on average, Wide receiver point two three, tight end point two three. When you look at twenty eleven to twenty twenty, and then twenty twenty one to twenty twenty six. Now, if you scroll down and you look at what's gone on in the top one hundred, it's not really changing much. There's been basically a point zero seven on average from a year's standpoint point zero seven years on average. The running back classes over the last five classes have been older than what we saw from twenty eleven to twenty twenty. Wide receiver and tight end in the top one hundred have actually gotten younger. So I don't think there's that much to say that of the players that we care about most in Fantasy football Top one hundred picks, Day one, Day two picks, I don't think there's enough to say that, Like things are dramatically changing on that front. You're gonna see more twenty three twenty four year olds get drafted in the top one hundred, like a Kaylon Black this year, like an RJ. Harvey last year. But RJ Harvey, I mean we're gonna talk about him in a second. I mean he he didn't really work out to expectation or what people thought he could or wanted to. You know, obviously there's a whole career to be played, but like it hasn't been great so far for Harvey and uh, you know you can say that, like, oh, Tyrone Tracy was a hit and he was over twenty four years old, Okay, but like there was good parts of his profile and he's also a Day three pick. It's just a it's you know, when you're focused on the top one hundred picks, things really are changing that much from an age perspective in this nil era. All right, good stuff.

00:40:05
Speaker 2: Let's get on to some losers, some big losers.

00:40:11
Speaker 1: It's the late round main event.

00:40:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, l for losers, not late round in this one. These are veteran losers from the NFL draft, starting with Tyler l Gear.

00:40:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one's obvious. They draft Jeremiah Love Tyler Elguy. Poor god. I feel really bad for Tyler Algier, although I feel even more bad for him because I beat him in a fantasy league. Once I beat him, there was a league that we did on sleeper one year that I was invited to, and like the Sleeper Bowl or something, and we had aj Dillon and Tyler Algear and then ten other or nine other analysts. Maybe it was even a fourteen team league. Oh, that was a sleeper Bowl.

00:40:51
Speaker 2: The fantasy footballers were in it and all those Yeah, I can't remember who was in that year, but yes it was against other analysts and stuff, and I won the league, and so I forever can say that I beat Tyler Algier.

00:41:03
Speaker 1: And aj Dillon and fantasy. It's pretty sweet. Uh But yeah, look, Algier might be their goal line back, but this is an offense that we're probably not super super bowlish on. I think that. I mean, what's the over under game started for Jacoby Brissett this year? If I said ten and a half, would you take the over or under? M Probably the under? I think so too. And that's that's what I like. It depends on how they do.

00:41:29
Speaker 2: Obviously just start, But like, why if you're gonna tank and you got some of these options out there's a good draft class and he rapped at Carson Beck, you know, and why not let you got out of Carson Bright.

00:41:42
Speaker 1: So I think that the offense could could struggle a little bit. I do. I am hopeful of the coaching change and stuff, and I think that's gone kind of unnoticed and talked about about Arizona this offseason, where people are kind of just looking at the Jacoby Brissette team that they had last year and they're talking about Michael Wilson in a really favorable like, what if this new coaching staff can unlock Marvin Harrison Jr. I still think Marvin Harrison Junior is more like inherent talent than Michael Wilson does. And so that's where I think it's kind of kind of a kind of interesting. But you know, I do think Algier can see some goal line work, but what does that really mean in an offense like this? Could he see some early down and stuff. Sure, but this is a huge, huge l for Tyler Aljier post draft.

00:42:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, for sure. And again goes from being back up to a backup.

00:42:29
Speaker 1: But at least he got paid. I guess. Yeah, it's to save gets to save his body.

00:42:34
Speaker 2: Okay, next, we have in a list Harold Fannin, who we're big fans of, and Jerry Judy, who maybe not so big.

00:42:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, shout out Harold Fannin's mom. Happy late Mother's Day. Right. So yeah, So look, Jerry Judy I think has gotten to the point of his career where we know he needs volume. Like a couple of years ago when he started to dominate and like do really well in fantasy football, It was one of the easiest fades for me last year because he ran so many routes and he was seeing such an unsustainable, such unsustainable numbers from a volume perspective. His efficiency is yards per out run, whatever the case may be, was was not changing. It was the same. He was the same player. Nothing was changing about him as a player. And so now you add Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Judy hasn't had a yards per out run rate above one point eight five since twenty twenty two. He's only been above that mark once throughout his career. His targets per out run rate never above about twenty two percent. So you get these new bodies in there, that's a lower targets per out run rate, and that's gonna be a fewer that's that's just gonna result in fewer Fantasy points for Jerry Judy. I just I think it's over for Jerry Judy. I just I know they're gonna try to say he's We're gonna feed him, He's still the engine in the passing game. I'm just not there. I like Todd Munkin, and I think Munkin really likes what he saw on in casey CONCEPTSI on with with Harold fannin though I don't think we should lose sight of this either. Like there's some very real volume concerns for fannin last year. He was hurt in that championship week remember against the Steelers, yep, where he scored that touchdown, and then I had him in so many championship teams and I was tilting my face off, but uh, you know, he gets hurt in that week seventeen game. His previous nine games, he was averaging a twenty seven point three percent target share per game rate, which is absurd. That's very very high at tight end. He was averaging less than ten pper points per game before that split. Now, obviously there was the Djoku stuff going on, he wasn't healthy the whole time and such, But what I'm saying is that, like we should not be assuming that he is going to sustain a twenty seven percent target share in this offense, especially especially with uh, you know, the the changes that we've love. There's just so much that's changed within that offense. I really like Harold fan and the talent, but there's so much more stability with like what's going on with Tyler Warren. Where, Yeah, we saw how this coaching staff used Tyler Warren last year. Obviously it went to the UNI know what, whenever Philip Rivers and such, you know, came under center and Daniel Jones got hurt. But we have the same coaching staff hypothetically the same quarterback, and then you're just less Michael Pittman, right, and that feeds in more volume to Tyler Warren. Or he's gonna be more of a focal point or the same focal point, and he can be a very real fantasy asset. And just a couple of rounds later, you've seen Harold Fannon sitting there. There's so much up in the air with him. I love fannin you know, I've still clicked his name at times, but it's a very very hard sell. Yeah, we haven't even talked about really his quarterback. Right, the quarterback play is gonna be more than likely terrible, Like they're gonna be tanking this year.

00:45:40
Speaker 2: Right, So yeah, all right, speaking of really high target shares, number three in the list.

00:45:47
Speaker 1: Chris Alave by the way, before we get into that, ja Quon saying I'm a Cards fan, I still don't think that you can convince an entire team to tank. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that I'm not really into this, like tanking with football, it's very difficult to do something like that. But what I am saying is their roster's not very good, like they didn't do anything to really address a bad defense last year, and they're gonna want to What I'm saying is they're gonna want to see what they have because it's clearly a rebuild, and when you're in a rebuild, you're gonna want to see what you have in these players before you get into a very very lucrative twenty twenty seven draft. Yeah, it's not saying that.

00:46:26
Speaker 2: It's basically like what's the what does the opportunity cost there? Titans did the same thing three years ago with Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis, you know Will Levis. They they trade up and drafted and then the team wasn't doing that well, so they just sat Tannehill and started.

00:46:43
Speaker 1: You need to have that information. Yeah, happens all the time when teams are When teams are i mean, shoud or Sanders played last year, you know, like they got there like, oh, we're not gonna like they shouldn't have even probably started Flacco last year, right, black belt was too good for them to start, right, So they they you need to evaluate your players. Yeah. Next is Chris A Lave, where I love it. I've been in the Lave Truther since he was drafted. About a twenty seven percent targets perou run rate last year, which is insanely good. Uh, Like I said, very underrated player. He's he's never had lower than a one point nine to eight yards per out run rate in the season. Thirty point two percent target share last year though, that's that's gonna be really hard when he hasn't been above a twenty seven percent target share outside of that season and Jordan Tyson stepping in. So I think we're gonna see a three to five percent target shair dip for Chris A Lave. And so that's why I think that we see him more or we should see him more in that three four turn range. I I think I in my last ranks, I had Devonte Smith over Chris A Lave. Maybe that's hot take. He I have no idea, but like I think a Lave belongs more in that like three four turn range in best ball whereas like his ADP before the draft was in that two three turn area and it you know, it takes time for that to kind of drop to where it should be.

00:47:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I don't think it's a hot take, especially if we can assume that aj Brown is out right out there. Love's going to have to fight with Jordan Tyson for those targets. Speaking of fighting, some people might want to fight you on this one. You got Wanda Robinson at number four.

00:48:16
Speaker 1: I love the real life pairing with Carnel Tait. You get a guy who can stretch the field really well with a guy who plays really well underneath. But last year it's just, you know, sample size is kind of small. But Molie Neighbors played those four games last year he had. Wandell had a twenty two percent target year with Maleague Neighbors thirty three percent without him. He was just fed last year. Like I know that we remember the games like that Dallas game where he went off down the field. Russell Wilson was throwing those those moon balls to him and you were like, wow, Wandell. Yeah, I think that Wandell is a good player. Like I liked him coming out Actually a decent bit when he came out of college. But I still think that he is very mostly a lower A dot slot player, and we saw that for the majority still of last season, even if it was a little bit different because they didn't have any healthy perimeter wide receivers or a good one. So Carnal Tate steps in. You know, I don't think Carnel Tit is automatically Molleague Neighbors at all. You know, Mo Laigue Neighbors was a better prospect as well, But this is a profile in Wandell Robinson where you need that volume. I think Wandell could still out target Carneal Tait this year. I'm just saying that we have to be we have to recognize that without my League Neighbors last year, Wandell Robinson was doing some some unsustainable things from a target share standpoint. Yeah, and before like if the Titans would have.

00:49:34
Speaker 2: Drafted someone else other than Carnel Tate, Wandell would have been still, like I mean, a really good choice.

00:49:41
Speaker 1: Like let's say they go Hurst, where a lot of.

00:49:42
Speaker 2: People had them projected to take later on, Wandell would have been the alpha.

00:49:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, because you have you have more opportunity like there's one hundred percent target share pie and you know, like you can say targets are earned, and they are earned. But like I say this all the time, just go to the extreme hypothetical. If you have a room of Justin Jefferson, Puka to Kua, Jamar Chase is your three wide receivers, those guys aren't gonna see the same target hirs they see right now in their offenses because they're competing with other extremely good wide receivers.

00:50:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Uh, let's go to Malik Willis. You know, in the South, we have the saying blessed, bless your heart. That's how I feel about Malik Willis. Bless his heart. You know, good for him for getting a pay day. But their wide receiver.

00:50:27
Speaker 1: Room catching Jalen Tolbert to to out well Maleiak Washington going into the draft, that's what they had, Okay, and then they don't spend up at wide receiver. They reach on Caleb Douglas. Actually, the conversation we had earlier, Caleb Douglas was the arian smith for me of this draft. Yeah, I'm just like, what in the world is going on? Like before he was drafted, before Chris Bill it's it's like everyone's talking about this on stribbling. The conversation we should be having is Caleb Douglas. That was an insane pick, Like an insane pick. Anyway, they they they draft Caleb Douglas, who is not a polished wide receiver in my opinion, and then they get a guy who's coming off in acl and Chris Bell. And then they get a slot guy like in Kevin Coleman on day three. But this room is Jalen Tolbert to to at well, Malik Washington, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Kevin Coleman, Terras Marshall, and the Oisee, the oise he who played with Luther Burden in college. That that's that's how people remember the Oisee. So so I'm looking at this this wide receiver room and yeah, Malik Willis was a loser, and they're they didn't get Juwan Jennings, you know, like, I don't think Stefan Diggs is gonna go there. He seems like a ring chaser or someone who wants to be on a more competitive team. Maybe debo like but even still, like, are we that excited about that? To move the needle from Malique Willis. I'm still drafting Mleikue Willis because of the rushing, but I think the ceiling is still a little bit questionable because the rushing gives a player a floor.

00:51:51
Speaker 2: Not that ceiling. Yeah. That roster, that wide receiver roster is it's like a bunch of wide receiver fours.

00:51:59
Speaker 1: It's it's legitimately, this is not hyperbole. Legitimately the worst wide receiver room that I have ever seen. Ever. We should pull up some. Uh, there's probably the other ones. I just like to be you know, I needed, I needed people to get like fired up over. Yeah.

00:52:13
Speaker 2: Would you rather have these wide receivers or the Titans when they had Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook.

00:52:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tyler Boyd's better than all these players. Hail to pit baby. Oh all right, speaking of hell to pitt Hell to pitt Man, Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf. Yeah, what a transition there, Uh, Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf for losers because they draft Jeremy Bernard. I think that he's an underneath player. He can play the slot that hurts Michael Pittman to a degree. You know, I don't know how much Bernard's gonna play, but Mike McCarthy's favorite slot guys in the past. I don't think it's a coincidence that they were trying to get McKay lemon in round one and then Jeremy Bernard in round two. They want someone to play that role, and so I think this gives Pittman a little bit less flexible, and then the target chair numbers can go down for DK Metcalf. So it's a it's a you know, within the context of this draft class, it's kind of a loser situation for for Metcalf and Pittman.

00:53:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, and those guys are definitely going to be losers if Aaron Rodgers doesn't signed.

00:53:17
Speaker 1: Someone said Panthers super Bowl wide receiver room Ted Gins better than all these guys.

00:53:23
Speaker 2: Okay, Next we have cover boy R. J. Harvey and JK. Dobbins in this Broncos backfield.

00:53:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, they get Jonah Coleman three headed committee. I think we're going to see at least to a degree, you know, I think that you could think of like the Tyler Bidet roll last year where he would come in on passing downs and Jonah Coleman can maybe play that. Even though they're not the same kind of player necessarily. I think this though, you know, it's very easy to say that this is going to hurt Harvey, and it is gonna hurt Harvey. Okay, if Jonah Coleman is any relevant, like, it's not a good thing for the running backs that are there. However, R. J. Harvey is more of that. Like I don't want to say this because people are gonna yell at me. More of that like Joker in the offense, if you will, right, like like the guy that John Payton likes to deploy and in a lot of interesting ways and across the formation and gives him a lot of looks through the air in the red zone as we saw last year. I don't think all of those are gonna go away. I think the scarier thing is is JK. Dobbins, who was more of that, like early down wasn't doing much as a receiver last year in that offense. So, like you know, I think that if you look at these three running backs, the best running back as a traditional back is probably JK. Dobbins from like a talent perspective, But the fear is that from like a role perspective, Coleman overlaps with JK Dobbins a little bit more than he does R. J. Harvey. With that being said, I think that again, like it's really bad news for Harvey as well. Like I'm not I'm just saying that, Like, if if Harvey was gonna his upside case as a player, then Jodah Coleman's not really going to get in the way. But it's a little bit different for JK. Dobbins because Coleman could steal goal line work and he could, you know, be a pass pro guy, whatever the case may be. So yeah, I mean you look at some of the splits though with Harvey. Weeks one to ten, with JK Dobbins, he had a twenty nine percent snap share, thirty two percent route share, eighteen percent of the team's rush attempts, and then from Week eleven to the playoffs without JK Dobbins sixty percent snapshare, forty seven percent route share, fifty eight percent of the team's rush attemps. I mean, it was completely different the way they used him. And I don't want us to be anchored to what happened second half of the year for R. J. Harvey, because I don't think that's going to happen with JK. Dobbins there and now Joonah Coleman there.

00:55:46
Speaker 2: Deegu Sig says, the real jokers. Marvin Mams Peyton just hasn't realized it yet. I mean, I look justin Justin Goalie.

00:55:55
Speaker 1: People said he might be yeah tight end, he's a fun one. Yeah, But like I think that we you know, this is a learning process for all of us. But like it's really easy to get afraid of going against a group think thought when it comes to a really prolific coach with like good fantasy outcomes and you know in his history, and that was the case with RJ. Harvey for me last year, where go read the prospect profile, like, go read what the model was saying. It did not like RJ. Harvey. It was a high risk profile in the ZAP model. And you know, I still, I mean, to be fair, I think I ranked Caleb Johnson ahead of him. So that was a big l But like, but like in the context of not letting the destination totally overshadow the prospect evaluation and not letting that overshadow it today, right, don't let your feelings about RJ. Harvey being in Denver last year and how excited you were for that, and I saw the upside case. I get it. I drafted him in redraft. But yeah, don't let that spill over into your evaluation of R J. Harvey as if you know, like like like thinking about like the landing spot in the situation and oh he was hand picked by Sean Payton, all that stuff is really not relevant right now, just given they brought back JK. Dobbins, they drafted Joonah Coleman, and R J. Harvey had pretty questionable numbers last year. Yeah, that three headed committee.

00:57:23
Speaker 2: My only criticism of you, JJ is that you should have warned us in the off.

00:57:27
Speaker 1: Season before the draft about Harvey. Don't even don't you dare troll me, just kidding.

00:57:36
Speaker 2: I think you've warned us multiple times, so if you still have him on your dynasty roster.

00:57:41
Speaker 1: You did get to the point though, where like, like if you look at the January ADP too, right before the draft, it got to the point where I'm like, oh, now I'm kind of at market with R J. Harvey, and then now you know, it's just so like I don't think the read was wrong, but there were times where I'm like, yeah, I don't need to sell him as aggressively as I as I did before, and biggest backbuilds much.

00:58:01
Speaker 2: That's that's that's coming the Broncos. All right, JJ, good stuff. I think that's it. No, No, so I had one more. I thought that was seven.

00:58:11
Speaker 1: No, Garrett Wilson. Yeah, Garrett Wilson. You get Kenyan Sadik and Omar Cooper. He hasn't had a single season in four years with a yards brought running rate above one point eight five. I'm just gonna I think Garrett Wilson's good, Okay, I really do. But I have talked about this for years. The peripherals for Garrett Wilson have never been better than Chris A. Laves. And yet the market is consistently until now put Garrett Wilson so far ahead of Chris A. Lave. But this is where peripherals can really matter. And yeah, his situation hasn't been very good. Has Chris Alave's been that good. It's not like Chris Alave is sitting here playing with Patrick Mahomes, you know. So with with Garrett Wilson, though, I do worry about volume. You know, his target share average since year one has been thirty percent, like he sees so much volume in that offense and he's still not hit a fifteen PPR point per game season. Now you're just adding more talent to the mix, and that's scary in my opinion. So you know, I'm not saying I'm fading Wilson. I'm not in that at that point in the offseason yet. But I do think that as I've thought about the situation more and more, he's kind of moved down my rankings, you know, based on where he's His ADP kind of sets things up. I think I'm a little bit lower than that.

00:59:29
Speaker 2: I think that's fair. All right, now we can move on, all right, j J.

00:59:39
Speaker 1: Let's get out of here.

00:59:40
Speaker 2: Just a reminder, like comment subscribe Next Tuesday noon Eastern is when the show will happen, So it would love for you to join us. Just make sure that you check your calendars there and speaking of calendars and things kept coming, make sure that you are subscribed to the newsletterlround dot com. You can alsore the page or the Prospect Guide and become a member on Lateround dot com.

01:00:06
Speaker 1: Final thoughts, sir, No, you know it's fun that we have stuff to talk about in May.

01:00:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the chat was pretty interactive, you know, shout out to you all, and yeah, I liked it, so all right, good stuff. JJ appreciate you, appreciate all the Late Round people in the comments. Leave us a comment. If you're watching this on demand, we would love it. And with that being said, we'll see you next Tuesday noon Eastern here on Late Round Fantasy Football show a