How much will the Twins sell?

00:00:03
Speaker 1: Hey, We've got Aaron Gleaming from The Athletic, also from the Smoking Hot Gleaming and The Geek podcast joining us right now to talk twins. Aaron, great to have you on and we've been waiting for this moment to cover the Chris Paddock trade to the Tigers. We love a good al Central trade. So how you doing and what did you think of the deal?

00:00:20
Speaker 2: I'm just glad I didn't wear a hat backwards or forwards for this, and I have no writing in the background here for me, so I think I'm safe and that aj I think you look good and I'm jealous of your hair, so however you want to wear it on?

00:00:33
Speaker 3: Gleam it? What is that thing behind you?

00:00:34
Speaker 4: Like?

00:00:35
Speaker 3: My eyes are bad?

00:00:35
Speaker 5: Now's today?

00:00:38
Speaker 4: Now?

00:00:38
Speaker 2: I might have got yourself in It's a It's like a cow.

00:00:41
Speaker 3: What is that like? Morrise code.

00:00:44
Speaker 2: This is a man using his girlfriend's office and has no idea what the artwork is so and maybe likely afraid to comment on it because she might hear this later.

00:00:56
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna sit this one out.

00:00:59
Speaker 3: There's a picture of you. Is that you two over your shots? Because you would never have that in your office?

00:01:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't have an office. Yeah, true love.

00:01:08
Speaker 3: Yes, all right, So here's the question, what are the twins gonna do? I already asked him a question. He didn't answer my next question.

00:01:15
Speaker 2: No, I mean I was dodging. I was dodging the question.

00:01:19
Speaker 3: Uh.

00:01:20
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna see pretty much. That was the start of I think what they're gonna do, which is Paddock is one of or one was one of six impending for agents that they had. I think he was probably, you know, third or fourth most valuable in that group. You know, Harrison Bader, Willie Castro, Danny cool Ohm, and then Paddock they traded, and then they also have Christian Vasquez at catcher and then Ty France. You know, I think they're still sort of in the wild card mix. I mean, they're playoff odds are like ten or fifteen percent. But I think the Paddock deal, doing it so early in the week, three days out from the deadline, I think signals they're gonna trade all of the impending for agents that they can get some kind of value for. And you know, not that Paddock had Hue value or anything, but they dumped a bunch of salary. I think four and a half million, which I know that doesn't really mean anything except to the pole AADs the owners, but I think that was part of the equation with that trade. And then they got a catching prospect back who seems like a decent nineteen year old catcher prospect from the Tigers. But I would expect kind of that to be the first step with a bunch of very similar moves the rest of the rest of the next couple of days.

00:02:23
Speaker 3: So are we talking Duran, are we talking Jacks? Are we talking Castro? Or are we talking who? I mean?

00:02:28
Speaker 6: Are they going to go all in and just dismantle and start over? And then if they do do that, how does Carlos Korea feel about that? Byron Buckson feel about that? Because these guys signed these long term deals and now they're kind of stuck.

00:02:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I wouldn't rule out them trading Doran Jacks somebody like that, even maybe Brock Stewart relievers who have two or three more years of team control. But I think they're in a position where they would need to kind of be blown away to accept one of those offers. I'm not saying they wouldn't do it or that that might not happen, but I think they're focused. He's gonna be you mentioned Castrow. I think he's definitely gonna be traded. I think Harrison Bader is definitely gonna get traded. I think they'll probably find a small deal for Danny Coulom, who can just be a second lefty, and some contenders bullpen if they get blown away in a offer for a non impending free agent like some of the names you mentioned, I do think they're somewhat open to it. But then the other thing, we couldn't Every time I'm on we talk ownership to some degree with the Twins, and I think the uncertainty of we're now nine or ten months in to the Twins having the team for sale and they haven't actually sold it, it's difficult, I think for the front office to know what their future is.

00:03:34
Speaker 4: So to trade somebody who has.

00:03:36
Speaker 2: A is a very good player like Jacks or Doron, but also his team controlled not just this season, not just next season, but twenty twenty seven, I think that is a big leap for a front office and an ownership group that is sort of in flux right now.

00:03:49
Speaker 5: Does that give not no hope because they're still exciting players, but Twins fans like, oh great, we're just gonna get a bunch of six, six more one year rentals offseason because there's no ownership drive or motivation or even direction. If that's how this trade deadline goes. To me, if I were Twins fans, I would be more excited if we got rid of a Griffin Jacks because of the return, because of what that could potentially be. But it could be another missing trade deadline or missing off season because ownership situation just is still in flux.

00:04:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, all that is definitely true. I agree with all that, and I mean it is a very frustrating low morale time last couple of years, basically since the end of twenty twenty three for Twins fans, payroll got cut, team has been underwhelming, all sorts of that stuff. Like you mentioned, You know, I do think that it is viable if you get a great offer, especially for a relief pitcher. I mean, we know even the best relievers sometimes have a pretty short shelf life, you know, they kind of burn bright, fade away a little bit. And if you can get multiple building block type of young players for a reliever, even if they are a reliever with two more years of team control. I do think that's something you can consider. But also, if I'm this front office and I don't know that I'm even going to be around next year, let alone twenty twenty seven, because first of all, if new owners come in at some point, which obviously Twins fans are hoping for, they might bring in their own people to begin with. That happens a lot, and regardless of that, the Twins are about to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years, So I think it's fair to question the performance of this regime anyway, which has been in place since twenty seventeen. So I definitely agree that depending on the quality of the offers you're getting, and the fact that Class A just got taken off the market too, could potentially lead to bigger and better offers for Deron and Jackson and Stuart from the Twins perspective, so I definitely think they're smart to listen, and for that matter, if you want to listen on Joe Ryan too. I mean, I'm not against listening, like, let someone try to go crazy and make you an offer, but I do think that the front office might feel like, do we want to enter into another rebuild or even a you know, step back, where it's not going to be good here for a couple of years. Where are they going to be here in a couple of years. What who's even going to own the team in a couple of years.

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00:06:29
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00:07:04
Speaker 3: Derek Falvey's in charge, he's been in charge. They lost that levine.

00:07:07
Speaker 6: But how handcuffed are they? How much are their hands tied by this ownership. I don't want to call it a problem, but ownership selling. We're not selling. We might sell if we sell. Joe Pollott still has to be part of the ownership group. Like, how handcuffed is Derek Falve with this team in the payroll and the trades he's actually allowed to make.

00:07:29
Speaker 2: I mean, we've seen you mentioned it the last two deadlines when they were in a position to be buyers, like clear buyers. I think two years ago they were in first place at the deadline. Last year they were in the first wild card. Their playoff odds at the deadline in the past couple years were like seventy something percent. Now it's ten percent. And they didn't do anything. I mean, they brought in like a middle reliever each time and then ended up cutting that guy before the end of the season. And I think a lot of that was their overall lack of aggression as a front office but it gets also back to what you just said, which is they didn't have any money to add anybody, and any deal they were going to have to make in the last two years would have to involve the selling team eating a bunch of money, which is going to cost you more prospects from the Twins point of view, or would have to involve money coming in and money going out major league from major league deal, which that's a very tough needle to threat all the time. I think this time around, any trade they make is going to be shedding money. They already shed four and a half million with the Paddock deal because they included Randy Dobnick's contract in there too. You know, if they end up trading the three or four other names that I mentioned, Castro, Bator, Koulom, et cetera, that's they're going to shed over ten million dollars.

00:08:33
Speaker 4: Now.

00:08:34
Speaker 2: Am I confident that money will ever be reinvested in the team on the field.

00:08:37
Speaker 4: Absolutely not.

00:08:39
Speaker 2: I've been covering the Twins way too long to know that, But you know, it is, I think a factor.

00:08:44
Speaker 4: But then the thing you have.

00:08:45
Speaker 2: To worry about, would they get better prospects, Let's say, for Chris Paddock, and I think they got a decent prospect in Rique Amenez is a decent prospect. But could they got could they have gotten a higher level of prospect or maybe a second decent prospect if they would have eaten four and a half million dollars or three million dollars in that deal instead of having the Tigers take it all on. And so I think that's another example of Yes, the payroll has been slash since twenty twenty three. Yes, the front office's hands are tied, but even in a selling position, not you know, trying to maximize the money saved could hurt the return you're getting on some of these deals.

00:09:19
Speaker 5: As the All Start game Byron Buckston absolutely squashed any any decisions or talk about getting traded. He said, I have a no trade class. I love Minnesota. Is that good for the Twins? Is that good? Yes? Oh man, I get to keep my jersey for another you know, count of years. But you also sit there and you go, Byron Buxton, you kind of want to go somewhere that you know, may want to be investing in the team or is it just a it's just just a hey, that's neat Midwest Baseball Pool we get to keep Byron Buxton.

00:09:53
Speaker 4: There's a little of that.

00:09:54
Speaker 2: I will tell you that probably, like many flyover states, the people of Minnesota, and I'm a lifelong Minnesota little chip on everybody's shoulder because stars often leave here. Very rarely do non home to going stars talk the way that you just describe Buckston talking how he said Minnesota's home. I don't want to leave. I want to retire here, on and on. And he didn't just say that the All Star Game. He's been very consistent about that since he signed his extension a few years ago and demanded a no trade clause. Not because you know some players get a no trade clause and they figure, well, I can get a little more money or leverage out of this if the time comes that they want to trade me. I think Buckston just got it. He doesn't want to go anywhere. He's got three kids and a wife. They like it here. He's comfortable with the Twins. They drafted him, they developed them, and yes, could he get traded to a contending team and maybe make a playoff run this year. Sure, But also, if you're a Twins fan, you want the players to believe it's not ten years away, right, Like, no matter how bad this season has been and how frustrating last season's collapse was, you do want Buston to believe deep down we could make a run at it next year. We can make a run out of it in twenty twenty seven. And I do think they have some of the pieces in place, which is why you know, trading Joe Ryan or trading Deron is a tougher decision than it would be I think for a lot of selling teams. But in general, I think it's a good thing for the people of Minnesota to have a superstar player who is a good dude and a good player on the field, who actually enjoys being here and is making it clear he wants to be here. And I know everyone will go well, but they could trade Buxton and they could get some massive haul.

00:11:22
Speaker 4: Okay, you get two prospects, maybe five years.

00:11:25
Speaker 2: From now, one of them is half as good as Byron Buckston. Like, I do think there's a little bit of a myth of a rebuild, and I mean the Twins have gone through rebuilds where you come out after five years of being terrible, you win a couple of division titles and then that's all you get, that's sort of where they're at now. So I think in general, I like the comments Buxton said, and it's also just consistent with what he said the last two or three years.

00:11:46
Speaker 3: Oh, I just want to stop you there. I came up with the Twins. I never wanted to leave.

00:11:51
Speaker 6: There was a lot of guys that were that I came up with that didn't want to leave, and they either got traded away or pushed out. So I don't I don't agree with kind what you just said. Like, there's a lot of people that I played with the Minnesota that wanted to stay there their whole career. Like I was traded, you know, Mikhayevich, he wanted to stay, he was traded. There's a ton of guys Tory Hunter left is a free agent. He got paid and they were never gonna pay him. But there was a lot of guys, trust me, that wanted to stay. I loved my time in Minnesota, So don't just say like, no, I love but there.

00:12:19
Speaker 2: I think that's a good point actually, because he got paid, Like he got a six year, ninety million total one hundred million total, because he had one more year of arbitration and at the time, he was even more injured than he's been the.

00:12:32
Speaker 4: Last couple of years.

00:12:33
Speaker 2: So he took sort of a fifteen million dollars a year, which is not all star level money, but there was the injury risk built in there, and so that is one of the biggest extensions the Twins have ever given out. And like you said, you had plenty of very good young players who were in position to get extensions in the early to mid you know, two thousands, and the Twins just really didn't spend any money at that point. And they don't spend now, but they really didn't spend back then. And so I definitely see what you're saying that a lot of Twins stars or borderlines our players were traded away in past years. They had no choice. He's one of the few that's gotten paid. And I think, you know, if this was a past regime or he came up with you at the time, like you said, when Tory Hunter, you know, he probably would.

00:13:11
Speaker 4: Have left already for free agency.

00:13:12
Speaker 2: And I think it's it's a little bit of a different situation just because he did actually get the extension that a lot of guys on the teams that you're talking about which was a much more successful era and had all kinds of homegrown star guys. But they didn't really pay anybody, including you know, Tory Hunter, including Johann Santana, all kinds of.

00:13:31
Speaker 3: Kadaire more.

00:13:32
Speaker 1: No, they all walked away, right, Yeah, they kind of let where Chees go.

00:13:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one they let Artis go for nothing, because.

00:13:41
Speaker 2: Two million, two million bucks is what they would have had to pay David Ortis for the season that they cut him.

00:13:45
Speaker 4: That is even for the twins. That's not much.

00:13:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not like they couldn't afford him, they just didn't.

00:13:51
Speaker 3: Well anyway, they thought they had other guys coming. They didn't like it was one of them. And also they didn't love back then, they didn't love Hunter. Strikeout.

00:13:57
Speaker 6: David struck out all right, right, so they we didn't love that. We were told, you know, you don't strike out one hundred times. Well, now one hundred strikeouts is a great year.

00:14:04
Speaker 4: For most of the guys.

00:14:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, you only struck out one hundred times. You're you're Luisa Rise, he's a contact.

00:14:10
Speaker 1: Yes, seriously, game has changed, all right, So I'll finish the way we started. What are the Tigers getting in Chris Paddock because apparently some other insiders were saying that teams like the Rays were in on Paddock. That's according to John Hayman. All of that one's kind of interesting because I thought the Rays are selling, but maybe they're buying in selling. Bob Nightingale said the Yankees were pursuing him, so clearly some teams were into Paddock. And he's always had that potential, but this year's A five is gr really bad in his last eight starts, A lot of homers.

00:14:39
Speaker 4: What was going on? I think you're definitely right.

00:14:42
Speaker 2: I was told that they had a handful of teams interested, which is how they ended up dumping the whole salary and getting a decent prospect back. You know, I think I've watched a lot of Chris Paddock over the last three or four years, and the description you gave is right, Like, there are starts where you watch him and the fastball is ninety five plus consistently, and the changeup is good, and he's he's pounced the strike zone and he controls the game and you talk to him afterward and he says all the right things and you go, Wow, this guy is really in control of what's going on, and I want to bet on him having a next you know, five starts going really well and then the next start he gives up eight runs. And I think this year what we saw that's even different than the frustrating aspects from past years. Strikeout rate went way down. I mean, when he came up with the Pandres, he was a change up pitcher whose fastball wasn't that good, but he got such swing and miss with his change up. Now he's basically a four seam guy and works off that and his change up in breaking ball don't even get swings and misses. It's it's been a really weird kind of comeback post second Tommy John surgery, the pitcher he's turned into. But I think from the Tigers point of view, I know they lost reeese Olsen for the season, so I'm sure they figured, can we just sort of inexpensively in terms of prospect capital fill the fourth or fifth spot in this rotation, because they got to figure he's not going to start a playoff game for them, but they got to get to the playoffs. They can't exult lost their bullpen. And I do think, you know, every fifth day trying to get him through five innings is going to be a better bet, just from a veteran this standpoint, strike throwing standpoint, than maybe some random triple A guy or some even lower wattage trade they can make. But I would be surprised if he had a big impact for the Tigers, although I will say I'm a little bit intrigued by the idea that they could move him to the bullpen down the stretch, maybe at preparation for a multienning role in the playoffs, because when he first came back from the second Timmy John in twenty twenty three, the Twins did that for a handful of appearances in September, and he was throwing upper nineties borderline one hundred at that point. So I do think, you know, fourth or fifth starter for now and then maybe shift to the bullpen in October could be somewhat intriguing for them.

00:16:41
Speaker 1: I don't hate that maybe the strikeouts tick up for him there and also the Tiger because I know he's got the click career low k rate this year, but the Tigers need swing and miss out of their bullpen, so maybe they catch fire there and make them a different pitcher for October. If he's into it. Good stuff, Aaron. Good to catch up with you man. Thanks for the time. Uh congratulations you survived.

00:17:03
Speaker 4: A J.

00:17:03
Speaker 1: Perzinski.

00:17:05
Speaker 2: Let's just hope no one else but us. Here's your review of the artwork before me or I may be banned from the show, but always good to talk to you guys.

00:17:12
Speaker 1: Thank you, you guys, your girls. Like so, I was listening to FT again today and.

00:17:21
Speaker 4: Thanks.

00:17:21
Speaker 1: I appreciate you man.

00:17:23
Speaker 4: See you boys,