940: Week 10 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha, JJ zacher Reefan. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine hundred and forty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. The best part about last week's Sleeper show was probably me calling out Ray Davis, who scored seventeen PPR points. There were a lot of just OK performances, but not great ones Aside from that, like Noah Brown was a good deep sleeper. We had Sterling Shepherd get about eleven PPR points, Xavier Lagett scored fourteen, and Bo Nix was fine at eighteen. But the other two quarterback streamers and Derek Carr and Joe Flacco didn't really cut it. Zach Ertz got owned in a tough matchup, Trey Tucker got a lot of cardio, and Xavier Hutchinson did absolutely nothing. It was a hard week. I talked about that on the show, but I feel like the last few sleeper shows have been kind of underperformers. I'll do my best to turn things around this week. Now, before we get int those sleepers, I want to remind you that even though you drafted your fantasy teams back in August. You can still do snake drafts right now over on Underdog. Just head to underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the app. In the draft section click NFL. You'll see tons and tons of drafts that you can participate in right now. If you're new to Underdog, make sure you sign up with promo code late Round that I'll get you a nice deposit bonus as well as my rest of season rankings. Those rankings are updated for you each Tuesday once you get the link to them, but to get them you have to sign up use promo code late Round, make a deposit, and start playing. We'll kick things off with players roster and in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll go to quarterback and start with Aaron Rodgers. Rogers gets the Cardinals this week and a game where the Jets have a respectable twenty two and a half point team total. Arizona's the eleventh best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed, and this is the one game this week with the best pressure rate advantage. The Jets have been pretty good at limiting pressures this year. The Cardinals have been a bottom five team at generating pressure. That could give Aaron Rodgers a whole lot of time to beat this defense. He's averaged over seventeen points per game over his last four I think he can get over that again. This week I talked about how people have sort of had this anchoring bias with the Washington defense this year. That secondary has been much better versus how they started the year. It's a pretty average matchup now in total, but I should say quarterbacks against Washington are throwing for thirty six more yards in their average. I do think Russell Wilson can still work. Before the Steelers by Wilson scored twenty five and fourteen points in his two starts. He's been pushing the ball down the field more than justin fields was that's led to an a dot that's over two yards higher. Washington's been pretty average at defending those throws this year, those deeper throws. It's an average to above average matchup, but the game has at okay enough total, so I think the rust can work now. There's an easier matchups argument to be made with Daniel Jones. Dimes gets Carolina, a team that really doesn't get to the quarterback that much, and it's one that's allowed the third most Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks adjusted for strength of opponent. Jones has the ability to give us fifty yards rushing in a game, and the Giants actually have a team total over twenty three points. So he's a good streamer. Now, moving on a running back, I'm gonna go back to that Pittsburgh matchup and talk about Jalen Warren. Naji Harris has taken over this backfield, or he had before the bye, but Warren has seen back to back games with at least a thirty two percent running back rush share, and he set target shares of thirteen percent, eleven percent, and eleven percent over his last three. They're using him, They're just using Naji Harris more. Washington's an average matchup on paper, and they do tend to limit targets to running backs. But Warren is seeing more work and he could see more if this game script goes south for Pittsburgh. That's always possible. So he's an O sleeper. And I'm gonna go back to Tyler Algier. I feel like I talk about Algier every single week. He and the Falcons get the Saints and New Orleans has been a top ten matchup for running backs this year by JESP points allowed. Algier as we know, he's seeing between twenty five percent and fifty percent of the team's running back rushes most weeks, and this week the Falcons have a legit shot to face a positive game script given all of the Saints' issues, So Algier is a fine option. I'm gonna go back to Ray Davis this week too. He keeps seeing backfield chairs in that like twenty three to thirty percent range, which isn't super high, but as he proved last week, once again, he can generate some big plays. Buffalo faces Indianapolis and any not only is a top half matchup for running backs, but they've allowed a running back rushing yard margin of plus eighteen yards this year, meaning team running backs are rushing for eighteen more yards against them than they are an average opponent. That's a higher than normal rate. So if Buffalo hits a positive game script, definitely possible. In this matter, there's a chance that Ray Davis would benefit. Now moving on to wide receiver, the forty nine ers are back from there by, which means you could look at Ricky piersall this week. I know he hasn't been amazing in his two games without Brandon Ayuk this year, and Juwan Jennings should be back this week too, but Pearsall should have a role that season. Get maybe seventy percent eighty percent of the team's routes run, and he's seen target shares of sixteen percent over his two games. The forty nine Ers get the Bucks. Tampa Bay has been a top six matchup for wide receivers this year by justin points allowed, and San Francisco is protected to score a lot of points this week, and the Bucks rank first in neutral script pass rate against, so I think he's in a decent spot. Xavier Leaguet is once again a worthwhile sleeper. The Panthers face the Giants kind of a below average matchup across the board, but it's okay enough. The thing is, though Lee get his target shares of twenty one percent and twenty five percent over his last two he hasn't fallen below eleven PPR points and three of his last four just based on usage, he's not a bad look. Now. I don't know how much Deontay Johnson is gonna end up playing this week, but it's a Thursday night game. He only has a short week to improve on a low snap count. That's why Rashad Bateman still might work. Bateman is run the majority of his routes and the perimeter this year, and Cincinnati's opponent has seen targets go to the outside at the third highest rate in the league, and that's adjusted for strength of opponent. It could be a higher scoring game, and Bateman's coming off a game where he saw a twenty one percent target share. Now, I don't absolutely adore this spot, but he could make a big player too. Ray Ray mclod was featured on the fifteen Transactions episode, so I'm gonna call him out here too. He's in a decent matchup against the Saints. The Falcons have a high implied team total, the Saints haven't been great against a slot. He's never finished a game this year with a single digit percentage target share, and Drake London is banged up as a result. Ray Ray McLeod, he's a sleeper. Abe Davis goes this week. I don't mind his spot. That's as long as Trevor Lawrence does too. That's up in the air right now. Because of a shoulder injury. But the Jags get the Vikings, and the Vikings are the third best matchup for wide receivers by justin fantasy points allowed this year. They're allowing sixty two more passing yards to be thrown on them versus the league average. You could throw Parker Washington in here too, if Trevor Lawrence plays. Both of them are reasonable sleepers now at tight end in this tier. I have a handful of them for you. First, as Zach Ertz, people might be turned off by his Week nine performance, but the Giants have been legit against tight ends this year. This week he gets Pittsburgh. The Steelers not as legit. They're a top ten team for tight ends by justin points allowed, they're top five and adjusted target share allowed. We know that Ertz will get his routes in this matchup. He can convert those to production. Mike is Sicki was featured on the fifteen Transactions episode, and like I said on there, as long as t Higgins is out, Kasicki's in great shape. He's seen a target chair per game rate above nineteen percent without t Higgins, it's been five percent with him, and now Eric All is out, that's going to lead to a higher routes run floor. Kasiki gets the Ravens, who are average against tight ends and adjusta points allowed, but they allow a ton of passing volume and a ton of passing yards, the highest marks in the league, so I think he's a fine streamer. Taysom Hill saw season highs across the board last week, as I talked about in the ten Trends episode, a strong sixteen point outing. If that usage improves, which is very possible, he shouldn't have much trouble against the Falcons. And then finally, John hus Smith. The Dolphins faced the Rams this week in again where Miami has a twenty four point implied team total. The Rams are the twelfth best matchup for tight ends by justin points allowed. And Smith get this. He's seeing target shairs of twenty six percent, thirty one percent, sixteen percent, and twenty two percent over his last four He's been heavily involved in this offense, so you can stream him. We don't have any streaming quarterbacks in the deep tier this week, or players rostered, and fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, so let's move on to running back and I have one of them for you, Cam Akers. This is purely a game script and matchup thing. Akers operated as the clear number two back for Minnesota this past week, handling twenty two percent of the team's running back rushes. He saw six percent target share. Two they get the Jags their four and a half point road favorites. If things go their way, he may get more work and that could lead to a reasonable Fantasy day. Now, wide receiver Sterling Sheppard still under that ten percent mark. He gets San Francisco, a team that ranks slightly above average in adjusted slot target share allowed. In Week nine, Sheppard ran about seventy percent of his routes out of the slot. The forty nine ers aren't especially great matchup on paper, but teams are generally throwing on them in neutral games script environments, and this game could go south for Tampa Bay. They're five and a half point Underdocks. That would lead to more passing and more Shepherd. He's probably an even better play if Jalen McMillan doesn't go, because last week he had a sixteen percent target chair without McMillan. If McMillan does go, will downgrade Shepard a bit. If t Higgins is out, then Andre Yosi Bosch is a great play this week within context. In games without Higgins, Yosi Bosh has had a route share about ninety two percent. That's seventy five percent with Higgins. The Ravens, like I talked about earlier, they're a team that faces a lot of passing that's resulted in them being the absolute best matchup for wide receivers according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So I wouldn't be surprised if Yosie Bosh is a usable week this week. No player ran more routes for the Saints last week than Mason Tipton. I'm assuming Chris Lave won't be able to go this week after another concussion, so I'd also anticipate Tipton playing a lot for the Saints, and he gets a Falcons team that's given up the tenth most of justin fantasy points to wide receivers. He's a very deep dart throw, but he's at least getting run and then in that same game on that same team as Juwan Johnson. His target share wasn't fantastic last week at just seven percent, but he did see an uptick and rout participation getting up to seventy three percent. That's not surprising given all their injuries. The Falcons aren't really good or bad for tight ends, but Johnson should see enough work to work out. And the final player in this tier is THEO Johnson. Johnson gets Carolina. The Panthers are the best opponent for tight ends this year by justin fantasy points allowed. Meanwhile, Johnson's consistently been running in the eighty percent route share range. He had a twenty three percent target share last week, so he might have another decent game in him now at defense this week. I talked about the Giants on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier in the week. They definitely work against Carolina, and then my other one would probably be Atlanta against New Orleans. That's a lower tiered play though, because I'm a little bit concerned about how much pressure the Falcons can actually generate. And then finally we go to underdog. Let's make some picks. Russell Wilson has been at two hundred and sixty four and two hundred and seventy eight passing yards over his first two games. Washington has seen quarterbacks throw thirty six more yards in their season long average against them. Now, obviously season long average wise, Russell Wilson doesn't have a big sample, but let's still go with Russell Wilson higher than two hundred and twenty six and a half yards, and then let's go higher than twenty eight and a half receiving yards for Rashad Bateman. That's a number that he's basically gotten to in all but two games this year. His lowest has been twenty three yards. Now, I don't know how much Deontay Johnson's gonna end up playing, but we'll see. I think it's still a logical play. Now. You can make those picks too if you want. Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up, and when you sign up, make sure you use promo code Late Round. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found in Hope to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I got a Mailbag episode dropping tomorrow and then another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then