Oil Falls; Tech Stocks Slump; Big Jobs Report on Tap

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Good morning.
I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
stories we're following today.
Karen, we begin with the latest on peace talks with Iron.
President Trump is hailing progress in indirect discussions as both
countries look to move past last week's tit for tat strikes.
The president's son in law, Jared Kushner, and Envoy Steve
Whitcoff are in Katar for technical discussions. President Trump says
he's aiming for lasting peace.
The de new nuclearization of Iran is moving along well.
They've had very good meetings and we'll see. We hit
them very hard for three nights, as you know, but
we're getting along very well.
President Trump isn't specifying what if any breakthroughs have been made.
Vice President ja d Van says technical talks carried out
by lower level negotiators are continuing.
Meanwhile, Nathan oil falling for a third straight day as
flows through the Strait of Hormuz climb. Checking prices right now,
West Texas Intermediate is down more than one percent at
sixty seven dollars eighty four cents of barrel. Brent is
also down about one percent at seventy dollars eighty one cents,
and President Trump is touting that as well.
Those boats are coming out of the Hormost straight. They're
coming out by numbers that nobody ever saw was setting records. Actually,
the oil is dropping. We have some great oilmen here.
I don't know if the happier said, I don't give
a damn off. The happiest said, I want the prices
to go down, And the oil is dropping like nobody
thought possible.
President Trump made those remarks in North Dakota following his
tour at the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library. Oil stockpiles in
the US have fallen to their lowest level since March
of last year. Inventories outside strategic reserves are around one
point two billion barrels after twelve straight weeks of declines.
Well, car in the other major war overseas, appears to
be ramping up. Ukrainian officials say Russia carried out one
of the its most intense drone and missile strikes on
Key of this year, killing at least thirteen people and
injuring dozens. The country's foreign ministers calling for more air
defense support from allies. Calling the attacks quote grave war crimes. Meanwhile,
Russia is indicating Ukraine may have used a ballistic missile
in combat against it for the first time. The Kremlin
says it's air defenses shot that missile down.
Let's stick with geopolitics, Nathan, The US is suggesting giving
greater benefits to NATO countries that spend more on defense.
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker raised the prospect of
a two tier alliance in an interview with Fox News.
You know, we are going to be an Okora and
we're going to have the first report card. We're going
to demonstrate that our allies are stepping up that they've
spent in the first year since the Hague defense commitment
over one hundred billion dollars on hard defense and capabilities,
and a commitment to the increasing that and ultimately equalizing
with the United States. It's significant, and it's only because
of President from.
US NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker's or Marx come ahead of
a NATO summit in Turkey next week, President Trump is
scheduled to attend. Germany's foreign minister is already rejecting Whittaker's proposal.
He tells the German magazine Der Spiegel quote, NATO is
not about blind obedience, Karin.
The Securities in Exchange Commission is looking into claims from
Susquehanna International Group that unknown insider traders made one hundred
million dollars on options bets ahead of a Chinese regulatory crackdown.
The quant trading firm went public with its claims in
a lawsuit this week. It says it lost more than
seventy million dollars on most of the alleged trades. A
federal judge granted Susquehanna's request for an order freezing accounts
at Interactive Brokers, as well as platforms at Futu and
Upfintech holdings. In the interest of transparency, we should note
that Interactive Brokers advertises on Bloomberg Radio.
Let's turn to the economy Now, Nathan and a key
piece of data ahead of the July fourth holiday. We
get the June jobs report this morning in Bloomberg's Michael
McKee joins us with preview.
The holiday shortened week means June jobs are reported a
day early this month, and traders won't have as much
time to guess what the data mean for the FED,
recent hiring has been strong and the unemployment rate stable.
Most FED officials, including new chairman Kevin Walsh, have said
they're not worried about the labor market sending any signals
about a slowdown in the economy. Their main concern at
the moment is inflation, which puts more emphasis on any
change in average hourly earnings. They have been falling, but
if hiring is picking up, that could reverse raising fears
the FED will be raising interest rates. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
Ahead of that report, Karen, we have heard from FED
shirk Kevin Warsh. She spoke at the ECB's annual form
in CenTra Portugal on a panel with other central bankers.
Warsh says price risks have come down in recent weeks
and he is determined to bring inflation back to the
FEDS two percent target.
We don't want to over determine things, but if there
were people in household of the business sector and the
financial markets who thought that this central bank was going
to be comfortable with an inflation objective above two percent,
well I guess they'd be disappointed.
FED cher Kevin Walsh also announced his tabbed former Bank
of England Governor Mervin King to co chair the fed's
new task Force on Communications to.
Markets Now Nathan. A massive sell off in Asian ship
stocks is reviving concerns that the AI rally has gone
too far, too fast. In South Korea's Cosby, which is
heavily exposed to the sector, fell by almost eight percent.
Shipmaker sk Heinex, which makes up close to a third
of the index, sank fourteen percent. Charlotte Yang is an
Asia equities reporter for Bloomberg News.
Because of the promise they have to track the performance,
they have to go through rebalancing process every afternoon, which
is buying into the rallies and sell into the declines.
So this mechanical flow will happen regardless of the views
on the fundamentals and because of the size of this product. Also,
together with the small appeas of volto days, they can
contribute to around sixty percent of es Khannik's daily.
Turnover and Bloomberry. Charlie Yang's reporting comes as Meta also
announces planning a new cloud business that will sell AI
computing capacity.
Another note out of the tech world, Karen Permeable tech
analyst Dan Ives is leaving WET Bush Securities. He's planning
to launch a new firm that will include research, capital raising, advisory,
and investing. Ives describes it as a modern merchant bank
across sectors such as tech, energy, infrastructure, and financials. I've
says he will continue as a research analyst and commentator
on TV and radio.
Well, Nathan, let's turn out to the latest on the
sweltering heat wave across the mid Atlantic and Northeast. To Bloomberg,
meteorologist Craig Allen says, the most brutal part of the
forecast comes today and tomorrow.
New York City topped out at ninety three yesterday, could
approach one hundred today. Newar cut to ninety nine yesterday,
Boston hit ninety two. You could probably add another four
to six degrees onto that, and Washington Dallas broke record
at ninety seven, and you could easily reach top out
above one hundred. And of course, the heat index with
a high humidity will give the feel of a sweltering
one oh five to one fifteen in many places. Nights
probably won't get below eighty in the urban areas too.
And as for brief cooling thunderstorms. As for a little
bit of help, chances of slim until we get to
the July fourth weekend.
And Bloomberg mediaologists Craig Allen their power prices from New
York to Virginia are surging as he threatens to overwhelm
grids heading into the holiday weekend.
Moving from the hot weather Karen to a hot ticket.
New York City is preparing to host the nupshoals of
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey tomorrow at Madison Square Garden.
Sources say about one thousand celebrity guests are expected to attend.
The celebration actually begins tonight with a smaller one hundred
guest affair with the rehearsal dinner on the floor of
MSG's Infosys Theater. Security over the next two days, we
are told, will be on par with a regular season
sporting event at Madison Square Garden.
Time now for look at some of the other stories
making news in New York and around the world, and
for that we're joined by bloombergs Michael Barr, Michael, Good morning, Good.
Morning, Karen. The death toll is near two thousand from
last week's twin earthquakes in Venezuela, but there are stories
still of survival. Hundreds of rescuers have been working to
save a Venezuelan man who has survived for a week
under the ruins of a seven story building. The forty
three year old security guard is trapped inside his booth
under the building where he worked when the twin earthquakes hit,
and a twelve year old boy was rescued after five
days in the rubble. His cousin, Myra Heredia in Miami
is calling it a miracle.
Here we are day seven and they're still finding people,
and you know, Hope is still there, and Hope is
still alive even though it's been so many days, and
we just then the emotional rollercoaster continues.
Meanwhile, the flow of aid and relief efforts continue out
of South Florida. Miami's News Stadium and Fort Lauderdale's Inter
Miami CF Stadium hosted a supply drive. Alistair Kiji is
with Global Empowerment Mission.
We're working with other sports teams. Many of them have
committed their facilities for pot drop off the nations and
that is super helpful.
Alistair Kiji with Global empower Emissions says they have been
sending regular planeloads of relief to Venezuela since the quake struck.
New York City is ready for a weekend of America
two fifty events that include the largest ever international flow
till up, tall ships, navy vessels, and the Macy's Fourth
of July fireworks. Mayor Zora Mamdani stressed that with all
the events going on in the city, they are taking
every precaution, which includes a huge police presence.
We continue to operate in a heightened threat environment. At
this time, there are no specific incredible threats and we
are taking every possible for caution to safeguard our city and.
This Independence Day. Joined Bloomberg this weekend for a special
live show from the Intrepid. David Gura, Christina Raffini, and
Lisa Matteo will be celebrating America's two hundred and fiftieth
birthday all morning on the deck of the Intrepid right
on the Hudson River. Watch and listen live on Bloomberg Television,
Bloomberg Radio, and the Bloomberg Business app Saturday, July fourth,
starting at seven am Eastern Global News twenty four hours
a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now,
Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.
Thanks Michael.
All time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for
that we bring in John stash Hour.
Thanks Jarren Victory. For the US at the World Cup,
they scored a goal in each half. The one on
the second half came when they were playing with only
ten men. After a red car two nil over Bosnia,
the US moves into the round of sixteen. The next
game is Monday against Belgium, who rallied the beat the Senegal.
NBA trade Jalen Brown, after ten years is a star
with the Celtics, goes from Boston to Philadelphia in exchange
for Paul George and two first round draft picks. Mitchell
Robinson had helped the NIXT win the championship, signed with
the Celtics. That's to Bloomberg Sports Update.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up
after this.
Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager, counting you down to the
key economic data report of the week coming a day early.
Due to the Independence Day holiday. The non farm Payrolls
report for June is coming out this month on the
first Thursday of the month, eight thirty Wall Street Time,
and here to preview it with us now is Bloomberg
International Economics and Policy correspondent Michael McKee. So, Mike, the
consensus on the Bloomberg terminal is one hundred and thirteen
thousand new jobs at in June, but they saw the
note from Bloomberg Intelligence Bloomberg Economics calling for much more
than that. I mean, this report has managed to surprise
to the upside, it seems, month in a month out.
Good morning, Good morning.
I knew there was a reason I was here on
a Thursday.
There you go.
The labor market has been stronger than people anticipated, particularly
the FED, and that's given them reason for hope that
they could at least leave interest rates where they are
and not have to cut them so that they can
continue to push down on inflation. And inflation is probably
going to be the underlying story of this jobs report.
We have seen average hourly earnings continue to fall and
there they've fallen behind the inflation rate. So Americans are
feeling that, and you've heard a lot about affordability. So
we'll see if average hourly earnings start to rise, if
you have a lot of people looking for jobs, and
you have a lot of jobs you want to fill,
then you might have to pay them more.
So I mean that could certainly feed into the dynamic
that we've been hearing ever since, even before FED share
Kevin Warsh took the helm the laser focus on bringing
inflation down to the two percent target. So how could
this jobs report potentially shift pricing around whether we're going
to see a rate hike from the Fed this year.
I suspect it would take a big number to shift
the pricing, but it would take nothing more than perhaps
meeting the estimate for pricing to remain the same that
we will see sometime in the fall a rate increase.
Now Wall Street is betting on that because the whisper
number is one hundred and thirty seven thousand, which is
higher than the economic consensus at this point. So if
we get that, then you'll see people still feeling that
the Fed is going to be raising interest rates. If
we get a big increase in average hourly earnings, you'll
also get maybe some movement because then people think that
inflation is causing problems again, but this is incrementally month
by month. It doesn't make a big difference, but it
does to the psychology of those who are on Wall Street.
This is Bloomberg day Break, your morning podcast on the
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