561: 10 Trends for Week 6

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at FANDEL and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and sixty one of the Late Round podcast many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. If you love hockey like I do, then you know that the NHL season is back and games are going on all week. Fandal is giving you the chance to get in on the action by opting into the NHL Parlay insurance offer. All you have to do is place a four more leg parlay on NHL games between October twelfth and October nineteenth. If exactly one leg of your bet loses, you get a refund insight credit max refund twenty five dollars per day. So kick off the NHL season the right way by heading over to Fandals Sportsbook and placing an NHL parlay. Must be twenty one years or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan, New Jersey, pennsylvani Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. Refund issue does not much rollables like credit that expires in seven days. Max refund twenty five dollars. Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandel dot com. Gambling problem called one hundred gambler or visit fandle dot com, slash rg and Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one one hundred nine with it in Indiana one hundred two seven zero seven one one seven for confidential helled Michigan, tennessee redline one hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine. Visit one hundred gambler dot net West Virginia are called one hundred next step or texts next step to five three three four two in Arizona. Trend one this week is about Derek Henry's absurd touch pace. On the season, Henry has one hundred and forty two rush attempts. That's forty eight more than the player who's in second, Alvin Kamara. Henry's averaging twenty eight point four rush attempts per game. Now, that probably sounds like a lot when you hear it, but I don't think people understand just how insanely high that number actually is. We've got a seventeen game schedule. Now, let's assume that it was still a sixteen game season. Twenty eight point four times sixteen, that equals a little over four hundred and fifty four rush attempts across seventeen games. That number's almost four hundred and eighty three guys. The NFL record for rush attempts in the season came from Larry Johnson. He ran the ball four hundred and sixteen times. That's significantly lower than what Dereck Henry is pacing towards. What's happening with Derrick Henry is just crazy. I have no other word to describe it. He's incredible. I think we have to expect the rush attempts per game number to drop right like you would think. So this is just territory that we've never approached before. But I had to talk about it on today's show because Dereck Henry is a monster. Antonio Gibson had five targets in Week one and then accounted for a twenty three point eight percent target chair. Everyone was excited Antonio Gibson might be used like Christian McCaffrey. Well, since Week one, Gibson has scene exactly two targets in every single game, his target shairs in those games haven't reached the ten percent mark. He's averaging a target chair per game of just six point one percent over his last four As long as this continues, it's gonna be hard for Antonio Gibson to give us the ceiling that we want. JD. McKissick has seventeen targets over his last four games and a twelve percent target chair. He's a problem once again for Antonio Gibson. I've talked about pass to rush touchdown ratio a lot on this show through the years, and recently I've been talking about teams who have really low ratios, like the Browns, who are tied with Chicago for the lowest ratio in the league. But how about the other side of things. The team with the highest pass to rush touchdown ratio this year, that's Minnesota. They've thrown for ten touchdowns so far and they've only rushed for one. I called this out regarding Kirk Cousins a couple of weeks ago and how he was really over performing in the touchdown column. But you can consider that a problem for the pass catchers too, And a bigger problem is that Minnesota's offense just isn't scoring much now. There are eleven touchdowns, is below the league average, and they've scored only two over their last two weeks. They're trending in the wrong direction. I didn't expect this to happen, but Justin Fields is not running much in the Bears offense. Maybe this has to do with some positive game scripts for this offense over the last couple of weeks. But during his three starts this season, Fields has totaled twenty five rushing yards. That's it, twenty five over the last three weeks of the same timeframe that Fields has been the starter. You know who has thirty rushing yards, Tom Brady. Here's another interesting trend related to Justin Fields that plays into some of the studies that I did over the offseason on rookie quarterbacks and mobile quarterbacks. One of the main reasons that those types of quarterbacks seem to hurt pass catchers on their teams is because teams with rookie quarterbacks and teams with mobile quarterbacks they tend to not throw the ball as much. Well. Over Justin Fields's three starts, the Bears have averaged nineteen team targets per game, nineteen Let's give this some context. Let's go back to Tom Brady. Tampa Bay averages forty four targets per game. The average across the league is closer to thirty four. Nineteen targets is not a lot at all, and it's a huge, huge problem for the receivers in Chicago. Trend six is that over the last four weeks, the Washington football team has allowed a top five Fantasy performance each week to quarterbacks. Daniel Jones was the QB four in week two, Josh Allen was the QB one in week three, Matt Ryan was the QB three in week four, and Jamis Winston was the QB five in week five. They're allowing more points per game than Tom Brady's scoring per game. They're not the top team and adjusted points allowed because of what happened with Lamar Jackson on Monday night, Indianapolis is actually now the worst team within that metric. But Washington has been really, really bad and raw points allowed per game, and guess what they get Patrick Mahomes this week. In Week one, Chase Claypool wasn't targeted at that high a rate. He finished the day with a target share of fifteen point six percent Since then, though, in games where he's played, he's averaged a twenty four percent target chair per game, and he hasn't had a single game with a target chair south of twenty two percent. With Juju Smith Schuster now out for the year, this type of target chair is definitely sustainable, and if the Steelers' offensive line plays like it did against Denver, Claypool could jump back into being a reliable starter in fantasy. He's got the talent to be someone that you can rely on. TJ. Hockinson in Week one, tight End three, TJ. Hockinson in Week two, tight End two, TJ. Hockinson in Weeks three, four and five, tight End thirty four, twenty and thirty. Hawkinson has now scored fifteen point four PPERO points in total over his last three games. I tried to dig into this a little bit, and I can say at least his usage hasn't really changed. His snapsharees are the same as they were to start the year, and he's still running the most routes on the team. So this could be due to the injury that he's been dealing with, but I also think it could be related to the lack of alternatives in the Lions offense and the fact that it's all this offense has some studley quarterback leading it. So it's definitely worrisome. But if you have Hawkinson, it's tough to do anything at this point because no one's gonna want to take on this type of production. You got to hope that the issue is the injury and that he can heal. I just wanted to point out this concerning trend. The Falcons didn't have Calvin Ridley in London, and that meant more Cordero Patterson. Patterson played almost sixty percent of Atlanta snaps in Week five. That number hadn't gotten higher than forty two percent in a single game up until that point. According to Next Gen Stats, Patterson ran thirteen routes when lined up out wide. Over half of his routes came from that alignment. That's by far the highest it's been this season. His highest number of routes run from out wide entering Week five, with six back in Week two. The Falcon's gonna buy this week. But something to keep in mind with Patterson is that because of his versatility, he sort of has upside when any skill position player in that offense is out The last trend this week is that only one tight end has seen at least a twenty five percent target shair in each of the last three weeks. And it's not Travis Kelcey. It's Dalton Schultz. I've been talking about Schultz a lot on this show over the last few weeks, but the trend continued in Week five where the Cowboys utilize Schultz a lot more than Blake Jarwin. Schultz ran more than three times a number of routes as Blake Jarwin did. I said the last couple of weeks, and I'll say it again, Dalton Schultz is a tight end one in fantasy football. Maybe his numbers dip a little bit when Michael Galluper turns, and I'd expect that to happen to some degree, but Gallup's also not entering the lineup and being squeezed into that lineup. He's gonna push Cedric Wilson out, and Cedric Wilson over the last couple of weeks, has been running starter routes. Yes, Gallup is better and he's gonna command a higher target share than Cedric Wilson. I'm not trying to sell this as Dalton Schultz maintaining a freaking thirty percent target share in the Dallas offense. What I'm saying is that tight end is a dumpster fire. Dalton Schultz is producing, and Dalton Schultz's peripherals are so strong that even with the decline and target share, he can still be a starter in fantasy football. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Sleeper Show.