407: 15 Transactions for Week 1

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Round Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number five dot com in this episode four hundred and seven of the Late Round Podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. We made it guys. It's been an anxiety filled off season and this season's going to be a little weird. But we're getting a season and I'm pumped and I hope that you are too. For those of you who are new to the show, first off, welcome, But second, this fifteen transactions episode each week is what I like to call my brain vomit. I look at the fantasy football landscape and I talk through players that I'm looking to buy, sell, ad and drop. The analysis is based on regression, schedule analysis, and a whole lot of other inputs to make sure that you're set moving forward.

00:00:55
Speaker 2: Now.

00:00:56
Speaker 1: I go out on a limb with some of these transactions because I think it's necessary.

00:01:01
Speaker 2: But as a.

00:01:01
Speaker 1: Result, some things go wrong, sometimes in a big way. But the goal with this is the number one, be right way more than I'm wrong, but number two to learn. I'm very much a process oriented analyst, and doing this show each week allows me to walk through my process in order to make you a better fantasy football manager. The fifteen transactions that I talk through are also on number fire dot com each week, so you can check out the written version over there. But since you guys are listening to the podcast, I also throw a sixteenth transaction at the end of the episode, just for a little bit more juice. I'll be bringing this episode each Tuesday until week seventeen. On Wednesday, we'll have the ten Trend Show, Thursday is the Matchup Show, and Friday is the Weekly mail Bag. Four episodes per week, all to help you bring home a Fantasy football title. I'm ready for it, and I hope that you guys are too. Now, before I get into the transactions this week, I want to send another reminder to check out FanDuel's Bestball content. With a Best Ball league, you get to focus on the most entertaining part of fantasy football, the draft. Draft your team, and don't worry about that team for the rest of the year because each week's scores will be optimized for you. No trades no setting your lineup, no waiver wire, just the draft. For more details was at fandul dot com or download the fandel app today. Eligibility restrictions apply by Deontay Johnson. I've been talking about Deontay Johnson since January on this podcast because I really really like him.

00:02:34
Speaker 2: I don't think that this is just hype.

00:02:36
Speaker 1: Everyone talks up last year's rookie wide receiver class, and for good reason.

00:02:41
Speaker 2: But of all those great rookie.

00:02:42
Speaker 1: Wide receivers, Deontay Johnson was the one to lead all of those wide receivers and receptions, and he did so with very, very bad quarterback play. Now Ben Roethlisberger is back and the Steelers have ranked in top ten neutral script pass rate in each of the last four years with Ben Roethlisberger. Is that if and when Deontay Johnson sees a high target share, it should be in an offense that's going to throw the ball to reasonably high rate. And I think that Johnson should see a nice target share. Since twenty eleven of the rookie wide receivers have a target share at or above fifteen percent, seventy seven percent of them ended up increasing that number as sophomores. Breakout wide receivers and I talked about this earlier in the offseason on this show. But breakout wide receivers, they're usually young, they come from ambiguous pass catching situations. We sort of have that in Pittsburgh because what if Juju Smith Schuster doesn't bounce back this year, what are we gonna get from James Washington? And then, breakout wide receivers also rarely come from nowhere. Deontay Johnson is not coming from nowhere if he breaks out. He had a high target share last year. I love Deontay Johnson this year, add Brian Edwards. Tyrell Williams is on IR. Everyone is going to be very excited about Henry Ruggs, and I understand why he's a first round pick. He's explosive and he's exciting. But don't sleep on Brian Edwards, who's now likely going to be a starter in this Raiders offense. Brian edwards prospect profile was actually really good. He had the best breakout age of any wide receiver in this year's class, and my model ranked him as an eighty fifth percentile prospect. Now that doesn't mean that much to you, guys. I totally get it, but let me give you some context. His percentile ranking is on par with second round wide receivers like Michael Pittman, kJ Hammler and Laviska Chanault. Considering draft capital is an input in that model. That's very, very impressive. I genuinely believe that, if not for an injury, Brian Edwards might have been a first round pick. He's the perfect player to stash right now in fantasy football. Sell Daniel Jones now. I think Daniel Jones has season long upside. I don't mind the weapons in New York. He flashed serious upside in fantasy football last year. He had four top two performances, and as a second year player, he could just improve. I just have an issue with the opening schedule. The Giants start things off against Pittsburgh, a team that's projected to have one of the best defenses in the league, and then they get Chicago, which is another questionable matchup, and then they get San Francisco. If you have Daniel Jones and are able to just hold on to him through this bumpy part of the schedule, great, But if you're in a league with a shallow bench and lots of quarterbacks, on the waiver wire. I'm fine with dumping Daniel Jones now by Jimmy Garoppolo, and one player that you can pair Daniel Jones with is Jimmy Garoppolo. He has the opposite problem schedule wise. To open up the year, the forty nine Ers get the Cardinals here in Week one in a game with a forty seven and a half point over under according to FANDLS Sportsbook. In the two games between these teams last year, Garoppolo combined for seven hundred and forty one yards in eight touchdowns. He had his two best fantasy performances against the Cardinals. And then after Arizona they get the Jamal Adams list Jets. The Jets might have the worst secondarian football, and then the Giants, Eagles, and Dolphins. None of those teams have top ten secondaries according to Pro Football Focus, and the Jets and Giants rank in the bottom six. I would not be surprised at all if Jimmy g has a very favorable fantasy football quarterback ranking through this first chunk of the season.

00:06:21
Speaker 2: Add Divine A Zigbo and James Robinson.

00:06:24
Speaker 1: So Leonard Fournette is no longer on Jacksonville as we know he's on Tampa Bay, and that opens things up a lot in this Jacksonville backfield. You have Roquel Armstead who's on the COVID list, you have Chris Thompson who's the pass catching specialist, and then you have these two undrafted players and Divine A Zigbo and James Robinson. A Zigbo is rostered in about twelve percent of Yahoo leagues right now. James Robinson is at six percent. I don't mind throwing darts at these guys as stashes right now, because both should get some run here in Week one. A lot of people are gonna side with Divine A Zigbo and I get it, but don't sleep on James Robinson. I talked about James Robinson on this show throughout the off season, actually because he had a crazy, crazy good production profile in college at Illinois State, which I get is a smaller school, but at Illinois State he went for over nineteen hundred rushing yards last year and a twelve percent reception share, and he had a fifty three percent touchdown share. His athletic measurables aren't very good, but I might prefer James Robinson to Divine A Zigbo right now, but add both of them if you can sell Le'Veon bell.

00:07:32
Speaker 2: So, over the.

00:07:32
Speaker 1: Last nine fantasy seasons, four point four percent of top ten fantasy running backs have been selected in round four, and then in round five it's another four point four percent. But then looking at the number of hits number of top ten seasons versus the number of total running backs selected by round over this time, round six running backs have actually produced top ten seasons at a higher rate than Round four ones. This is all stuff that I talked about throughout the off season, especially in that podcast on finding league winners and where league winners come from. Now, I understand you have to take this case by case, but I do think that there is some logic to this idea that RB twos aren't very good in fantasy football. They're not great bets. It's because fantasy managers see all these running backs fall off the board early and they panic.

00:08:19
Speaker 2: They know that they need running.

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Speaker 1: Backs, so they reach for running backs, and they get bad running backs as a result, or running backs with question marks. Now I like some of those running backs like James Connor, Jonathan Taylor. I think some of these RB twos are fine this year, but this is a big reason I haven't drafted Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and Le'Veon Bell definitely fits that. I think there are even more red flags to Le'Veon Bell than some of these other running backs. I'm worried about Adam Gase. There's already tension between Adam Gase and Le'Veon Bell because Frank Gore was getting a lot of run in camp, and then we have a history of Adam Gase refusing to give the better running back the ball in his backfields. And then I'm also concerned about the offense itself. The Jets tied the Steelers with the lowest touchdown total last year in all of football. As we know, the Steelers had a circus at quarterback. There is some regression coming, but I'm still a little bit worried about the offense in total and Pro Football Focus ranked the Jets twenty seventh in their offensive line rankings. Guys Chris Hogan might be a wide receiver starter for them in Week one, and then there's the schedule. We want running backs in positive game scripts, but the Jets might not be favorites until November. They're facing the Bills this weekend, they're six and a half point underdogs, and then they get the forty nine Ers in Week two as six point underdogs. I'm just worried about this environment for Le'Veon Bell, and I would be trying to sell him now rather than later. By DeShawn Jackson. I love Jalen Rager, but Jalen Rager is banged up. There's not a lot of alternatives in that Eagles offense for Carson Wentz to throw to. That's a main reason you should love DeShawn jacks Remember what happened with the Shan Jackson last year In Week one against Washington, he had eight catches, one hundred and fifty four yards and two touchdowns. He gets that same matchup this week, but I'm also intrigued as to what could happen over the next couple of weeks after this one too, because they get the Rams next week in what should be a higher scoring game. The matchup isn't great, but points could be scored, and then in Week three they get the Bengals. So these first three weeks for DeShawn Jackson could be great. They do hit a rough spot, but I would try to have DeShawn Jackson to get your team off to a good start. Ad Joshua Kelly. So there was a piece from The Athletic about a week and a half ago that said this about Joshua Kelly quote, he might be having the best training camp of any player on the roster. This is big, you, guys. Melvin Gordon is no longer on the Chargers. Last season, his sixteen game pace would have gotten him a sixty three and a half percent running back rush share. That's now gone. Sure, Austin Eckler is going to fill some of that. Austin Eckler is likely going to have a career high in rush attempts this year. But there's still been lots of talk about a split backfield, as there should be. So enter Joshua Kelly. He's easily the biggest bodied back that they have, so he could take on some of that Melvin Gordon role, and he could just simply grow into the Melvin Gordon role. What if Joshua Kelly ends up being the goal line back for them? What if Joshua Kelly ends up seeing a fifty percent sixty percent running back rush share. I think it's possible. I think it's in his range of outcomes. He's rostered in way too few leagues right now by Tyler Lockett and Dk Metcalf. I think both Lockett and metcalf have insane upside this year because they're being drafted right now at their projections, which makes sense. But their projections are also capturing an offense that's not going to be very pass heavy. Over the last two years, Seattle's ranked thirty first and thirty second in neutral script pass rate. It's almost going to be hard for Seattle to continue to be this run heavy. And what happens if they let Russell Wilson cook a little bit. That means there's going to be more pass attempts to go around in that offense. And that's a really big deal because even last season, Tyler Lockett, before his leg injury, was the wide receiver three in fantasy football. DK Metcalf, as a rookie, had a twenty percent target share and led all players and end zone targets. Even with Josh Gordon back, both of these wide receivers could eat this year. Add Laviskas Channault. So Jacksonville has the lowest win total this year according to FanDuel's Sportsbook. That's not that big of a surprise, But what that means is negative game scripts, and what that also means is the potential for lots and lots of passes. Laviskus Channault ranked in the eighty eighth percentile in my prospect model. He's a very good prospect. He's an intriguing prospect too, because he does sort of comp to that Deebo Samuel AJ Brown type wide receiver, and outside of djhar there are no locked in pass catchers in this Jacksonville offense. There's opportunity for Laviisco Chanelt to emerge. So I would be adding him if he's on your waiver wire. Sell mark Ingram So, the Ravens scored fifty eight offensive touchdowns last year, and that is very unlikely to happen this year. I wrote an article earlier in the off season on team level regression, and I'm just gonna read from that because I think it makes this point. Of the seven teams to hit that mark in a single season since twenty eleven, so that fifty eight touchdown mark, none of them were able to increase that touchdown total the following year, and the average touchdown score the following year among those teams was about forty seven. Now, if you extend that further, we've seen twenty five different teams with fifty or more offensive touchdowns over this same time period. So since twenty eleven and twenty three of the twenty five watched their touchdown total dip year over year. That's going to have ramifications for mark Ingram, you guys. ESPN Mike Clay's Opportunity Adjusted touchdown or OTD said that mark Ingram should have had four point two fewer touchdowns last year than he actually had, And it makes sense. Ingram had thirty targets last year and he scored five touchdowns on those targets. No other running back has ever done that in NFL history. Over the last nine seasons, a running back has averaged thirty seven targets per touchdown. Mark Ingram was averaging six targets per touchdown. So regression is coming. And then on top of that, you have JK. Dobbins, who at the very least could steal some pass catching work, and John Harbaugh has already talked about Dobbins having a significant role. Ingram might be fine to start the year, but I think he's a very clear sell right now.

00:14:46
Speaker 2: By Zack Moss.

00:14:48
Speaker 1: I don't think it would be shocking at all, as I alluded to in my Bold Predictions episode, if Zack Moss just simply outscores Devin.

00:14:54
Speaker 2: Singletary this year.

00:14:56
Speaker 1: There's already talked that Zach Moss could be the lead back in this backfield because Devin single military can't hold onto the ball. But I just think that Moss could see the more valuable touches for fantasy purposes in the backfield. There are two things that you want in your running back in fantasy football. You want them to see a lot of targets because targets are more valuable than attempts. And you want them to be able to find the end zone. You want goal line looks. You want red zone work. Zach Moss could see both of those things in this Bill's offense. He's shown off as a receiver already in camp, and he had a twelve percent reception share during his final collegiate season. It's not like you can't catch the ball despite the fact that he's a bigger bodied guy. But because he's the bigger bodied player in that backfield, he could see the goal line work. I'm just afraid that Devin Singletary is a between the twenties player. I talked about that on a mail bag episode earlier this offseason, and as a result, I really like Zach moss.

00:15:50
Speaker 2: Ad IRV Smith.

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Speaker 1: So the vast majority of you probably feel fine with your tight end entering Week one, but if you need some tight end help, if you're looking for a stream, you could look to IRV Smith. He's only rostered in sixteen percent of Yahoo leagues. He essentially produced just as good as teammate Kyle Rudolph last year, and tight ends take a little bit of time to get acclimated to the NFL. But I did that Breakout tight End episode earlier this offseason where I laid out criteria that breakout tight ends seemed to share. They generally don't come from nowhere. IRV Smith had a decent target shair last year, and he has decent draft capital. They're athletic. IRV Smith had a seventy first percentile speed score. They tend to be tied to good quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins is fine, and they're typically year two or year three players. IRV Smith is a year two player without a true clear cut number two option in this Vikings offense. I love IRV Smith this year. Add Logan Thomas. If you need an even deeper play than IRV Smith, you could look to Logan Thomas. He's going to be Washington's top tight end this year. He doesn't totally fit the mold of what I just talked about with breakout tight ends.

00:16:57
Speaker 2: But he is very, very athletic.

00:16:59
Speaker 1: It makes sense that he hasn't done much as a tight end so far in his career because he's transitioning from quarterback. If there's one player who could be this year's Darren Waller coming from absolutely nowhere, just given the way that these players progressed in their positional journey throughout the NFL, I think that it could be Logan Thomas. Add the Detroit Lions defense. So hopefully you were able to plan ahead for this Week one matchup and get a team like Philadelphia who's facing Washington. But if not, and if you really need a defense, I don't mind Detroit. They're facing Mitch Trubisky. The game has a forty four and a half point over under, so that's not very scary. And last year Trubisky was sacked over two and a half times per game and the Bears were an above average opponent when adjusting for strength of opponent. It's not the best streaming option in the world, but I don't mind Detroit. The sixteenth transaction this week that you can't get in my fifteen transactions column over on number fire dot com is to add Malcolm Brown. There was a note from Sports Illustrated that said that Brown could end up starting in Week one, and I don't think that's actually that wrong. Darryl Henderson is injured, he may not even play, and Cam Akers is the rookie in that backfield. I also think there's a chance that Brown sees more work than expected in that backfield in week one and potentially just early in the season. Cam Akers is the favorite to emerge as the workhorse, and I love Cam Akers as a prospect. Akers is the player that you want, but I'm also all about extracting value early in the season. If you can get a player now worth X who has a chance to be worth X plus one, then you should target that player. I definitely don't think that Brown is gonna have crazy season long upside, but it's the right environment to target, and with the injury that Darryl Henderson's been dealing with Brown makes for an interesting ad just to see how that backfield split looks here in week one. I wouldn't be adding him over the other players that I talked about on today's show, though. That's gonna do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Like I said, I'll be back in your ear tomorrow with the ten Trends episode