976: NFL Combine Winners and Losers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode nine and seventy six of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get into today's episode, I have a few things that I want to share. First, last week, this podcast was named Football Podcast of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and that was for a second straight year. I just want to say thank you, and I'm so grateful for your support. Without that support, there would be no Late Round podcast. And thank you to the FSWA for the recognition. It really means a lot. Now. Second, we're not less than a week away from the Late Round Prospect Guide launch. I'm in editing mode right now, so it's not totally done yet, but this thing is a beast this year. I've got profiles for every running back and wide receiver who are at the combine. I've got almost forty year two profiles. I have information in there on what goes into the ZAP model and that year two model. It's one hundred and sixty pages long of some super nerdy fantasy football information and of course I've got rankings in there too. You can pre order it right now at fourteen ninety nine. That's gonna change next week though, when it launches that price is gonna rise by five bucks. Then when the draft is over, if you ordered the guide, you'll get a post draft version sent directly to your inbox in the final day of the draft. That's gonna have updated blurbs, prospect scores, and rankings. Learn more about it over on lateround dot com. And while you're on lateround dot com, do me a favor sign up for the newsletter. It's absolutely free. As a lot of you know, I hired David Kitchen at the start of January to be Late Round Fantasy Football coo and with that we've been beefing up the newsletter game. You get content from both of us in that newsletter. I'll be setting one out this week about some zap models scores. Kitchen he does a fun recap each week and again it's absolutely free. Just had to lateround dot com to learn more. Okay, let's get to today's topic, which is the NFL Combine. We just watched this year's prospects run around in shorts and we did learn a little bit. Now, I think most people who are new to what I do probably assume that my models and the numbers that I work with are hyper focused on the combine. That's really not the case at all. The only information from the combine that actually goes into my prospect models, the ZAP models, are heightened weight measurements, and then I look at speed scorer at running back and tight end speed score being weight adjusted forty yard dash times. Now, that doesn't mean that the other events of the combine aren't impacting a player's prospect score. Because the biggest input in each model is draft capital, and a team may be influenced by the combine, they likely are influenced by the combine, which then can impact a player's draft capital. So I try to keep that in mind as I think about which players were winners and which players were losers at the NFL Combine. But that's what I'm going to talk through today, winners and losers from the combine, obviously, with a focus on the three positions that I have a prospect model for, which is running back, wide receiver, and tight end. It's a pretty straightforward episode that I do each year, so let's do it now. I'm not gonna lie. Today's episode is far more good than bad. There were way more winners this year in my eyes, than losers. Let's start with the most obvious winner, and that's Matthew Golden. He ran a four two nine. People knew that he was fast. I'm not sure that anyone was prepared for that that kind of speed. Now. I talked about Golden a little bit on the episode that I did a couple of weeks ago on wide receivers who produce like studs in college, and I gotta be honest. His production profile it's not very strong for a first round wide receiver, and I think with that forty time he's probably now a first round wide receiver. Before it was kind of up in the air. Now, Golden's breakout scores fifty one point four. For those who don't know, breakout scor is my metric that looks at age adjusted receiving yards per team pass atten numbers. Obviously there's more about that in The Prospect Guy, but that's the gist. Golden's fifty one point four breakout score. It's fine, but it's far from great. It's barely above average. We've had twenty two first and second round wide receivers drafted between twenty eleven and twenty twenty two with breakout scores below sixty. Only four of those twenty two wideouts scored fourteen or more PP air points per game in either year one, year two, or year three. Now, I don't think Golden has the worst production profile that we've seen from a potential first round pick, but is definitely well below average, and it puts him in a group of undesirable players generally speaking. Clearly, he can still hit, but I always get nervous when a dude without a crazy good production profile gets elevated in the draft after what he did at the Combine, and there's no doubt that that's probably going to happen. I do think at the end of the day, though, without Travis Hunter being involved, he'll probably end up being the model's wide receiver. Four. Now on the flip side is Isaiah Bond. During the interview portion of the Combine, some of you probably saw this, Bond confidently said that he was gonna break the forty yard dash record, and when you watch him play you can see that speed on display. Like it seemed like a ridiculous thing to say, but He also is pretty fast, and he did run a fast forty, but to be overshadowed by his Texas teammate wasn't a good thing for him. He didn't run as fast as Matthew Golden. The ZA model likes Bond's breakout score more, but given draft capital, Golden's almost definitely gonna rank ahead of Bond in ZAP score pre and post draft. So I'm gonna say that Matthew Golden was a winner and kind of as a result, Isaiah Bond, given his confidence in how he was talking about the forty, kind of a loser. I think Amri and Hampton solidified himself as the RB two in this class. At the combine, he weighed at two hundred and twenty one pounds, which is an ideal weight for a bell cow back in the NFL. He then went out and he ran a four four six forty. At that weight, he had a speed scorer of almost one hundred and twelve. For context, anything over one hundred speed score is typically fine. Anything over one hundred and five that's great. Anything over one to ten that's very great. Now, if I'm being honest, if you're looking for a running back in this class. Who's going to produce the best comps. It's Hampton, it's not Ashton Genty. In the ZAP Model, he gets comped to Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. Ashton Genty is the better prospect according to the model, but gent size profile is just a little bit different. Genty's a more unique prospect. Now. I wrote this in Hampton's profile right up that I did find interesting. It's sort of a fun with numbers thing, I said. Quote. In the ZAP Model database, there have only been two running backs that hit a one oh five speed score at two hundred and fifteen plus pounds while posting a best season reception share of fifty teen percent and a top season yards per team play of two point twenty five. So these backs are big, they're fast, and they had great college production. Those two running backs were Todd Gurley and David Johnson. I think Hampton is very legit to the point where today, right now, I sort of got him in his own tier behind Ashton Genty. We've mostly talked about winners so far, so let's talk about a loser. That's Harold Fannin. There's no doubt about Fannin's production profile. It's awesome. In the tight end ZA model, which includes all drafted tight ends since twenty fifteen, only one tight end as a higher career yards per role run rate than Fannin. Now, obviously, Fannin played at Bowling Green. He's awesome in college football twenty five by the way, I made the College Football Playoff with that Bowling Green team he dominated. But numbers are going to be easier to compile at that kind of program. The tight end model uses speed score as an input, and Fannin ran a four to seven to two at his two hundred and forty one pound weight. That gave him a speed score below one hundred, which is not what you want from a fantasy tight end generally speaking, and tight ends their speed scores are generally a little bit better because they're bigger players better than running backs. The vast majority of high end talent at tight end in fantasy football had speed scores over one h five. Now, some have said that this all shows up on tape, so it's not that surprising. I don't care about the surprise factor. I'm just saying that the fantasy community thought that Fannin was close to the tight end. One group in this class. It's looking clearer to me that he's in the next tier down. Now. He still looks pretty good in the ZAP model because of his production and because he's still not going to be twenty one years old by the time the draft rolls around, so he still looks good, but the combine was not a good result for him. Now a tight end winner, and the last tight end that I'm going to talk about today was Terrence Ferguson. Now, I admittedly haven't done as much work on tight end compared to running backs and wide receivers thus far in the process because I'm trying to get this prospect guide done. The guide only includes tight ends once the draft is over. But Ferguson ran the fastest forty among tight ends of the combine at four to sixty three. He's now looking like the tight end five in the model, but that's with projected draft capital. Before the combine his athleticism showing off. He had one hundred and seven speed score that could easily increase that mark, increase that draft capital. His production metrics were pretty average, but sometimes athleticism is all we need a tight end as long as there's some production backbone. And with him there is so he's someone to watch. Analysts seem to like Trayvon Henderson or I guess he's going by Tray now, but analysts seem to like him more than Ohio State teammate quinch On Judkins. I know the ZAP model does because Henderson has a type of receiving profile that typically does well at the next level. Now, Judkins has always been more of the bruiser to Henderson being more of the agile pass catcher. But Judkins had an impressive combine, specifically with his forty and yes, I keep bringing up forties because that's the thing that matters most here for fantasy purposes. Judkins had a one h nine point seven speed score after weighing in at two hundred and twenty one pounds and running a four to four to eight forty. He wasn't that much slower than Henderson, and we consider Henderson the big play threat. Now, the production profiles for these running backs, they're going to be more important than their weight adjusted forty times and where Judkins lacks within the ZAP models with receiving metrics. His breakout score, which is driven by receiving yards per team pass attempt at running back just like wide receiver, it's forty six point five. The class average this year is fifty nine point four. Now, I don't think that he's incapable as a pass catcher, but consider this. The ZAP model has seen twenty two running backs get drafted in the top one hundred with breakout scores below sixty and top season reception shares under ten percent. Judkins is likely going to join this group post. Of those twenty two, only two of them ended up seeing a target share per game rate in one of their first three seasons in the NFL above nine percent, and one of those who was Jerreck McKinnon, who didn't play a traditional running back role in college. The other one was Doug Martin. To put that all another way, when running backs have the receiving profiles that Judkins has, they usually aren't used as big pass catchers at the next level. I think we're likely looking at a running back in Judkins who's more of like a seven eight percent target share player at the next level, and that does matter for fantasy purposes. Now. Fortunately, he's got the size, speed combination to potentially make a serious impact in fantasy. Still, it's not like he absolutely needs that fifteen sixteen percent target share, but I do think his ceiling is a little bit capped. Jalen Nole, which he tweeted over the weekend, is pronounced Nolan, not Noel. But Jalen Nole had a legit combine and I'm excited about it because he looks pretty good in the ZAP model. One of my favorite lower key players in the wide receiver class entering the combine. I actually like both of the Iowa State guys, but let's talk Nol. He was a freak testing wise at the combine, and while none of the metrics directly connected the ZAPP model, I do think he improved on his draft stock quite a bit. He ran a sub four four forty. He was at the top of the leader board with his vertical and broad jumps. His three cone time was also excellent. I mean, at the end of the day, he tested as arguably the most athletic wide receiver at the combine. The problem is that he's a little bit smaller at five ten one ninety four, but I don't actually consider that a problem at all. More on wide receiver side later. The thing that I like about Nol analytically is that all of his numbers are basically above average. He's got a seventy six percentile breakout scorer compared to the rest of the draft class. He has a career yards per route run rate in the fifty eighth percentile, and he ran a variety of routes in college. He had some seasons where his average at the target was really low out of the slot, but then other seasons where he was getting down the field more. And he did it all at Iowa State. Receiving work, ground game work, special teams work, noles comps could have been better in the ZAP model, and you'll see that in the prospect Guide. But I think he's pretty underrated at the moment, though the Combine might change that. One of the lower key winners at the Combine, in my opinion, was Dante Thornton. Thornton's from Tennessee. He played at Oregon as well. He also didn't get a ton of playing time in college. He only ran five hundred and nine routes across his four seasons, and he was fourth in wide receiver routes last year, his final season. That's why he doesn't have a breakout score because breakout scorer is driven by receiving yards per team pass attempt, and receiving yards is a volume driven statistic, but when counting all wide receivers in the ZAP model database since twenty twenty, Thornton's career yards per route run this is courtesy at PFF at ranks in about the ninetieth percentile. He can get deep. Last year at Tennessee, his eight out was sixteen point five, and then at the combine only Matthew Golden ran a faster forty. But here's the thing. Dante Thornton is six foot five, two hundred and five pounds. It's always good when the measurables match what the production generally says. He's a deep ball guy who may be able to find the field because of that speed. And for an afterthought, right now, that's kind of interesting. It's not like he looks amazing in this a model. He doesn't even have a breakout score. But when you're throwing darts late in your draft, that's the kind of guy that you want to throw a dart at. Someone who has some trait that you can really latch onto. So I thought that I would give him a shout today too. There were two bigger bodied backs who had slower forty times of the combine, but did they actually did it actually matter? I've seen a lot about Caleb Johnson and Olie Gordon having bad combines because Johnson ran a four to five seven forty Gordon ran a four to six to one. But this is why speed score matters. Speed score doesn't tell you who's going to be the fastest in the NFL or who the fastest is period. Like Xavier Worthy had the fastest forty time in history last year. He's clearly one of the fastest players in the league. But his speed score it's not that high because he's lighter, he doesn't weigh that much. It's showing you how a player is moving at a certain weight. It gives you an idea of overall athleticism. Caleb Johnson's speed score was still almost one hundred and three. Ollie Gordon was at one hundred. Because they're both big backs. Yeah, they ran a little bit slow, but they both weigh a lot. Their speed scores weren't elite, but they also weren't some death sentence. But I am bringing them both up today as losers only because this class is filled with so many good running backs, and there are a lot of running backs sort of in that weight range, maybe a little bit smaller who did come through with elite speed scores. DJ Giddens, Rocket Sanders, RJ. Harvey, Montrell Johnson. All of those guys really improve their draft stock and became more intriguing options. Johnson and Gordon didn't. Therefore, Gordon and Johnson ended up losing a little bit of ground. Basically, with Gordon and Johnson's forty times, there was a chance that either one of them could have moved into better analytical groupings if they had a good forty I don't think the world was expecting like elite forty times or anything, but if they were sub four or five or even lower four fives, it would have made a little bit of a difference. That's why they're being tagged as losers. Probably the biggest running back winner at the Combine was a player that I had talked about on last week's episode, and that's Bashall Tuton. Tutin was already a zapmodel favorite because his production profile is pretty strong, he has good receiving numbers, he got it done at an early age. I'll be it against weaker competition at the start of his collegiate career, but overall good production profile. And then he went out he had the fastest forty time of any running back of the combine. He ran a four to three to two forty At two hundred and six pounds, he had a one hundred eighteen speed score, which is pretty ridiculous. Now, Tuton's comps right now in the ZAP model are kind of all over the place, but I think it's because his outlook has a pretty wide range of outcomes. On one end, Tuton profiles like a Darrnton Evans type. Tuton's a little bit bigger, He's a little bit faster, but it is a decent enough comp. Evan's got top one hundred draft capital. Don't forget about that. He just hasn't worked out in the NFL. But hold on to your butts when I say this. Tutan's top comp in the model right now is Kenneth Walker. Now, obviously that comp isn't as valid if Tuton's draft capital doesn't rise from the combine, but analytically there are a lot of connections. Otherwise the ZAP model wouldn't have shown Walker as a decent match. Their size profiles are similar. They both ran fast forties, they had elite speed scores. They both have strong breakout scores. Now, I know that Walker had some receiving concerns entering the NFL. His reception share is low, but his breakout score was really good because he saw d baseline of receiving work at a young age. I think that's the high end outcome here, of course, and with Walker, we at least felt good about his floor. I don't think we have that same safety net with Beshall Tuton, but he definitely helped his cause at the combine. Now, the final player I want to get to today is Tes Johnson. Wide receiver size. Wide receiver weight it doesn't matter nearly as much as it does at running back in the ZAP model, but it does matter for sealing purposes. We don't get a ton of lighter wide receivers in fantasy football who are consistently giving us wide receiver one seasons. In the ZAP model, we have fourteen wide receivers who weigh under one hundred and seventy pounds. Of the combine. Tes Johnson for the record one hundred and fifty four pounds. He's the second lightest wide out in the database, only ahead of two to two at Well. Now, of those fourteen wide receivers who are south of one hundred and seventy pounds, only Hollywood Brown, Tank, Dell DeVante Smith, and Xavier Worthy have been able to score ten or more PPR points per game in one of their first three years in the league. The problem is that it's very easy to argue that all of those four wide receiver profiles are better than Tess Johnson's. Three of those four had breakout scores above ninety two, which is borderline elite. Not only that, but those players showed us that they could play both inside and outside. In college, their career slot rates were all under fifty percent. Two of them were under twenty percent. Johnson's career slot rate, according to PFF data, almost ninety percent. So ask yourself, how is one hundred and fifty four pound wide receiver going to win on the perimeter at the next level. Well, probably with speed and Johnson he went out, he couldn't break a four five forty, which is pretty rough for a dude as small as he is now. He did well in the agility drills, and he had a good explosion score too. That's staring at us and telling us that he's probably just going to be a slot player. This is not a scenario like we've seen in the past where a lighter wide receiver is going to play all over the formation. It looks very, very likely that Johnson's a slot guy, but that's not going to give us the fantasy upside that we want. I don't know if a one hundred and fifty four pound wide receiver can see a lot of volume in the NFL. I think that's a reasonable thing to question, and him being a really good slot guy is not really differentiating him as a player. Had he run faster, we could at least make some case that a team could get more creative with his skill set. But now there are more questions than answers. Johnson had good per route run numbers at times at school, and I do think he's a capable slot player, but he may end up just being a better real football player than fantasy football player. For him to really hit, he's going to have to be unlike any other wide receiver prospect that we've seen over the last fifteen or so years. That's really something that's tough to bank on now. Clearly, with so many players participating at the combine, I could go on and on about winners and losers. I just wanted to call out the guys who I found the most interesting. The players will probably shift the most in the ZAP model. If you're interested in some more analysis, of course, go check out the prospect. I don't think you're gonna regret it. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. I've got a Late Round Perspective episode coming to you later in the week. I'm super excited about that. I'll talk to you then