Global Market Volatility; Harris & Walz Hit Campaign Trail

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.680 --> 0:00:11.440 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:14.600 And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:17.599 Hearing this action in the market this morning follows a 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:22.000 big reversal in markets yesterday. After gaining almost two percent 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:24.440 earlier in the session, the S and P five hundred 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:28.320 closed down eight tenths of one percent. The rapid slide 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:32.280 followed a week forty two billion dollars sale of treasuries. Chadovi, 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:35.360 a director of investment management and Huntingdon Private Bank, says 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:37.520 now is the time to put your money to work. 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.680 We've been telling our clients not to be overcashed. Right. 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:42.680 The one thing that we know for certain is that 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.280 as interest rates start to go lower, whether that's because 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:49.040 of market activity or FED activity, cashields are going lower. 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.680 So if you have cash, b dollar cost averaging and 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.400 look to those markets where you can get in on 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:56.400 some of those dips, be a long term investor. 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:59.480 Huntington Private Banks. Chadovi It says stocks also came under 0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:02.960 pressure yes esterday because seventeen blue chip companies offered almost 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.160 thirty two billion dollars of debt. That's the highest amount 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:08.080 of US investment great issuance this. 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.360 Year, well Nathan, three quarters of the global carry trade 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:15.760 has now been unwound. That's according to JP Morgan's quant strategists, 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:19.080 who say the week's volatility has wiped out year to 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.440 date returns and cut into the past two years of profits. 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.160 Mark Cranfield from Our Market's Live team says the Japanese market, 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:28.480 one of the homes of the carry trade, is still 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:29.200 not stable. 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.760 It's a bit dysfunctional market you're seeing in Japan, and 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.560 that's not too surprising when you consider the extreme volatility 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:39.839 you've seen in the past week. It's really a market 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:43.920 currently of headless chickens. People are just chasing everything, every headline, 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:48.360 every nuance. So in terms of expecting volatility to die down, unlikely. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.360 We're going to have plenty of it, and we've got 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:52.600 US elections coming as well. People are just going to 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:53.320 get used to it. 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:57.520 Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield says the carry strategy involves borrowing at 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:01.880 low rates to fund purchases and higher bilding assets elsewhere. 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:03.120 We care in the odds of a recession in the 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.560 US are increasing. That's according to JP Morgan Chase, the 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.040 firm now sees a thirty five percent chance that the 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:11.440 economy tips into recession by the end of this year. 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:13.960 That's up from twenty five percent as of the start 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:17.600 of last month. Still, economist Duriel Rabini says the market 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:21.079 may be getting ahead of itself on expecting aggressive rate 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.760 cuts from the FED. He says the central bank is 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:25.600 right to signal a soft landing. 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:28.680 The markets are often wrong about what's going on with 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:30.840 the economy and what the FED is going to be doing. 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:35.640 There is some significant, i to say, evidence of some 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:38.120 slow down of the economy, but I don't think the 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.359 data suggests that we're going to have a hard landing 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.480 anytime soon. If anything, actually there's some elements of strength 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:44.480 in the economy. 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:48.040 Duriel Rabini is known as Doctor Doom for predicting the 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:50.280 two thousand and eight global financial crisis. 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:53.680 Well, Nathan, there are several stocks in the move this morning. 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:56.160 We'll start with shares a Bumble. They're down more than 0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:59.440 thirty five percent. The dating app company is slashing its 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:02.520 annual revenue outlook, and we get the numbers from Bloomberg's 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:03.320 Charlie Pellett. 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.639 Bumble says annual revenue will grow between one and two 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.160 percent from the previous year. The company had previously forecast 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.760 growth of between eight and eleven percent. Wall Street was 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:17.120 expecting an eight point four percent gain, according to Bloomberg 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:21.000 compiled estimates. The company's third quarter forecast and second quarter 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.720 results also broadly missed the mark. Bumble, which went public 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:27.680 in twenty twenty one, sawt shares hit a record low 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.040 in February after it shared a weaker than expected sales 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:34.280 outlook and cut around a third of its workforce in 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:34.840 New York. 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:37.960 Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio, all right, Charlie, thanks and shares 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.960 of Warner Brothers Discovery, You're down nearly twelve percent. The 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:44.000 parent of CNN and the TNT cable network posted a 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:47.440 second quarter charge of more than nine billion dollars after 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:50.440 writing down the value of those traditional TV networks. The 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:54.119 company was created in twenty twenty two when Discovery acquired WarnerMedia. 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.880 It has concluded the cable channels are no longer worth 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.880 what they were when that forty two billion dollar merger 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:00.720 was completed. 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.280 Well Nathan investor Kathy Wood is trying to take advantage 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:07.040 of the recent stock markets sell off. She scooped up 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.560 shares of tech firms, just as our flagship fund is 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:12.800 synk to a new twenty twenty four low Woods Arc 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:17.479 Innovation ETF bought Amazon Advanced micro Devices and Roku, a 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.119 fintech focused fund of her firm. Arc Investment Management also 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.200 added Reddit and meta platforms. 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:25.799 Let's turn to the latest in the presidential race, Karen. 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:28.520 It is now a sprint through the key battleground states 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.120 for Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate, 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:32.679 Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz. 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.800 Donald Trump he sees the world differently than we see it. 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:45.680 He has no understanding of service because he's too busy 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:47.000 servicing himself. 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.920 Governor Waltz spoke there in Detroit, Michigan, as his opponent 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:55.440 for the vice president's Ohio Senator jd Vance tailed the Democrats. 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:58.640 He spoke with reporters by her plane of Harris's plane 0:04:58.680 --> 0:05:01.040 Air Force two, near oh Claire, Wisconsin. 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:02.159 We think it's. 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:03.839 Important to get out there to talk to people, to 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:04.839 make the best case. 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:05.120 That we can. 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:08.440 And obviously there's an element of especially local media is 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:10.359 going to cover her because she's a vice president and 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:12.640 a presumptive dominie. So we think it's important to have 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:15.560 a counter narrative here and importantly to drive home this 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.280 point that she has been a dangerous radical. 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.680 And after JD Vance's appearance on the Harris Waltz trail, 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:25.640 a Harris campaign spokeswoman posted on x this is getting weird. 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:29.279 And Nathan asks his vice president campaigns through the key 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:33.320 battleground states. President Biden says he is not confident there'll 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.559 be a peaceful transition of power if former President Trump 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:37.760 loses in November. 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.040 He means what he says, we don't take them seriously. 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:42.479 He means it to look what they're trying to do 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:45.520 now in the local election districts where people count the 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:49.760 votes elected, putting people in place in states that they're 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:51.000 going to count the votes. 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:51.279 Right. 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:53.120 You can't love your country only when you win. 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:56.679 President Biden spoke to CBS News in his first interview 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.279 since he ended his reelection bid last month. The full 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:01.960 interview will air on CBS Sunday Morning, which can be 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:05.320 heard on Bloomberg Radio in New York, Washington, DC, and 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:07.560 Boston is Sundays at ten am. 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.560 Andy Karen Delta Airlines has been hit by a class 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.840 action lawsuit. The airline is accused of failing to properly 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:18.040 refund flyers or provide them with meals, hotels, or transportation 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:22.480 vouchers after crowds strike software outage last month caused widespread 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.000 delays and cancelations. 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:28.920 But it's time now for a look at some of 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.279 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:33.680 the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:37.000 John, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Tropical Storm Debbi has 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:39.920 made a second landfall in South Carolina on its way 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.280 up the East Coast, where residents as far north as 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:45.880 Vermont could gainst several inches of rain this weekend. Bloomberg 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.400 meteoramalogist Rob Carrolyn is tracking the storm. 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:49.120 John. 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.160 The circulation associated with what's left of Debbie continues to 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:55.039 produce very heavy rain over portions of the Carolinas, and 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.800 this will be spreading into Virginia today. We're looking at 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:02.320 numerous flash flood watches and some warnings from northeastern South 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.440 Carolina across North Carolina, then up along the Appalachians all 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:06.640 the way to central New York. 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:09.400 Debby came as shore early this morning near Bulls Bay, 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:13.960 South Carolina. Taylor Swift's aeros tour has been canceled in Austria, 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.960 and officials announced the irrative two men they accused of 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.040 plotting a terror attack. Authority say, a nineteen year old 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.960 Austrian citizen who had recently plunged allegiance to the Islamic state, 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:27.320 focused on the Aras tour as a potential target. Nearly 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:29.920 two hundred thousand people had been expended to attend the 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:33.800 Vienna concerts, which were to start today. Bad news if 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.440 you're looking for a deal on an apartment. The Manhattan 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:41.080 rental market still sky high. More from Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini. 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:45.160 The average rental price in Manhattan one forty six dollars 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:48.440 a month in July. The average rental price did fall 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:51.080 from a year ago, but that's just because these size 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:54.520 of the average apartment being rented fell. And forget about 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:58.800 signing incentives. In Manhattan, deals offered by landlords plunged, and 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:01.480 some lieutenants paid up above the list price. And if 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:03.400 you were hoping to get a better deal in Brooklyn 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:05.720 or Queen's, forget about it. The price per square foot 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:10.440 of apartments in those places also rose. Denise Pellgritty, Bloomberg Radio. 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:14.240 RAN's president telling his French counterpart, Emmanuel met Crown, the 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.160 US and Europe must urge Israel to accept a truce 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.160 in Gaza to reduce tensions in the Middle East. The 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:23.600 comments hints at a diplomatic path at de escalation as 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.800 Israel braces for retaliation after the killing of a top 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:30.800 Hamas leader in Tehran. Global News twenty four hours a 0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:33.120 day and whatever you wanted with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:36.320 John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg Nathan and Karen. 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:43.360 All right, John, thank you. It's time now for the 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:46.600 Bloomberg Sports Update. But John stash Hour, John, good. 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.480 Morning, Good morning, Karen. Is the Olympics start to wind down. 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:51.960 Big day in Paris the two hundred meters with American 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:54.199 Noah Lyles. He already won the one hundred and that 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.600 thrilling finish. This is considered his stronger event. And the 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:00.880 men's basketball semifinals as the US taking on Nicolo Jokich 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:04.200 and Serbia. US beat the Serbs in an exhibition game 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:07.200 and in group play, and both wins were by twenty 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:10.640 six points. US women into the Semis. Win over Nigeria 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:13.280 makes it fifty nine Olympic wins in a row. They'll 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:16.920 play Australia tomorrow. Quincy Hall's come from behind gold medal 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.679 in the four hundred meters the third time an American 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:22.200 runner has won gold with a rally at the end. 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.280 Lyles did it, so did Cole Hawker the fifteen hundred meters. 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:28.160 Hall was in fourth place around the last band. It's 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.560 the first US gold in the four hundred since two 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.920 thousand and eight. In Denver, Mets and Rockies tied to two, 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:34.640 nine to eight. 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:40.120 First pitch fly to left field, fasehead fil Indor Fader scores. 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:43.200 Here comes gabble around third, he will scored. 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:44.920 The throw is cut off at third. 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:48.839 Francisco Lindor with the basis loaded, drives in two. 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:50.680 It is four to two Mets. 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:53.400 In the top of the night on WCBS, Mets won 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:55.760 five to three, another strong start for the New met 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:57.959 Paul Blackburn his second in row and the Mets only 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:01.480 half game behind Atlanta for second. In the NLS, Yankees 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:04.120 and Orioles again tied for first. Yanks split two at 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:06.760 the Angels at the Stadium. They won five to two 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.280 behind Luis Heally got his twelfth win. The Angels then 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.920 won eight to two with a six run second in 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:15.440 off Yankee rookie will Warren Baltimore one, seven to three 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:18.280 in Toronto. Red Sox lost eight to four at Kansas City. 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:21.840 The Giants won seven to four in Washington. The Football 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.520 Giants host the Lions tonight in the preseason open to 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:28.079 the two teams had two fight filled joint practices. The 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:31.600 NFL find both teams two hundred thousand dollars for raffiellen 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:33.920 allenounced he won't play the US Open next month. He 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:36.480 will play the Labor Cup. That might be the last 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:39.600 event of his career. John Stashedwar Bloomberg Sports can. 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:46.200 Navan coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:49.200 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:52.640 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.000 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager on another morning of volatility 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:58.640 in the global market as the debate over central bank 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:03.079 policy decisions around the world feeds into investor anxiety. Joining 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:06.200 us now from London is Bloomberg Stocks reporter Joe Easton 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:08.839 and a job between the worries about whether the Feds 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:11.320 waited too long to cut and the unwind in the 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:15.440 carry trades after the Bank of Japan's surprise hike, Where 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:19.480 do things sid now? Good morning, Yeah, morning, Nathan. 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:22.240 So, I mean the thing I've been waiting to see 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:24.559 is a rebound in stocksvill we're just not really seeing 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:27.640 that at all. We're seeing yesterday in the US we 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:29.400 saw a bit of a gain at the open, then 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.920 a decline faded away. In Europe every morning we seem 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:36.040 to be opening very slightly higher and then giving up 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:38.600 the games. The market really not willing to bet on 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:41.720 a rebound as such. Stocks pretty much down around five 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.800 percent over the past week, both in Europe and the US, 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:48.120 and we're just not seeing investors to buy it back in. 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:50.480 Maybe they're going to wait for a bit more date. Obviously, 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:53.000 later we get the US jobless claims. That could be 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:56.080 important in terms of the numbers, but we really need 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.640 some kind of trigger for markets to actually turn, and 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:00.000 we're not just seeing that at the moment. 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.120 Well, where you sit in Europe, we're continuing to see 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:05.240 some pretty deep selling. What's driving that? 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:10.720 Yeah, So I think earnings have been largely negative here 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.520 In terms of the large cap companies today, we had 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:16.679 some big names like Semens. We also had a bunch 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.240 of insurers kind of just being a bit slow in 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.840 terms of where they growth. Our semens was talking about 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:25.040 customers cutting back on orders, being slow to put new 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.920 orders in. That had to kind of read across the 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:32.480 entire European industrial space. The bank numbers haven't been particularly strongviously, 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.960 interest rates fading coming down will be negative for them, 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.920 So we're just seeing just a bit of negativity. But 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:41.199 you've got to also bear in mind that volumes are lower. 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:42.960 Of course, a lot of people on holiday, a lot 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.760 of the traders I chat to all of them red 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.320 dotted on the terminal today where they're just out. So 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:50.640 the liquidity in the volume in the market is low, 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.839 and therefore disappointment on things like earnings and data is 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:55.960 just causing a bit more selling in these markets. 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:56.200 Now. 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.160 In terms of what's driving the broader market, a lot 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:01.760 of it's been driven by the global unwind in the 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.839 carry trade. After the Bank of Japan's move, the folks 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.000 over at JP Morgan Chaser saying now they think it's 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.240 about seventy five percent done. Could we expect some of 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:14.440 this volatility to subside once this carry trade unwind fully 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:15.000 shakes out? 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.920 Yeah, I did see the JP Morgan update. That was 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.120 pretty interesting to say, given a lot of that trade 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.520 potentially has now been closed out. Kind of depends on 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.320 how much losses were booked there and how much leeway 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.960 people have to buy back into other trades in terms 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.880 of buying back into stocks, whether they'll just have to 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:36.320 kind of hold their positions there that might kind of 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.000 be wrapped up. So I don't think that will be 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.640 the main trigger. I think we'll need to see data. Interestingly, 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.760 the US numbers next week will get US inflation, but 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.960 that's kind of taken a kind of second step in 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.840 terms of the importance. Now the market more focused on 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:56.640 growth will get some SMP indexes in terms of the 0:13:56.679 --> 0:14:00.480 survey numbers next week, the ISM numbers as well later 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:02.880 in the beginning of next month, So those are kind 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:05.200 of the key dases that we'll wait for. I don't 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.040 really think the Japan issue is going to be key. 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.640 It's more going to be about whether US economic growth 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:15.160 continues to slow, whether the Fed's taken too long to 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.960 lower rates, as you say, and also the earning story. 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:22.520 Will markets continue to reward companies for doing well or 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.160 are they too concerned about economic growth. That's the bigger 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:25.680 issue for me. 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:26.080 Yeah. 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.520 And to your point about the data dependence in between 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.560 all those data points you mentioned, is the jobless claims 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.640 coming out this morning after all that betting about whether 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:39.520 the Fed's behind the curve after last week's disappointing jobs report. 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:41.920 I mean, what kind of volatility could we see just 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.000 from this next upcoming data point. 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.840 Yeah, I'm excited to see that that will be coming up, 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.840 as you say, at one thirty my time, eight thirty 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.880 your time, So in one hundred and eighty seven thousand, 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:55.880 I think was the call for continuing claims. We'll see 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.920 whether that actually lands. I think that given the sensitive 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:03.160 that you mentioned there, it could be a key data point. 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:06.320 I mean, US futures pretty much lower on the SMP 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.080 at the moment. Maybe people are going to position ahead 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:11.120 of that, just wait to see what that number looks like. 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.520 If it's a decent number, maybe we see a bit 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:15.600 of a rebound. You would expect that to be the case, 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.600 but at the moment, maybe people waiting for those jobless 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:20.920 claims numbers. Definitely going to keep me glued to my 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:22.400 screen later this afternoon. 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.560 And in terms of where we sit now on rate 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.760 cut betting, are we still thinking that there could be 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:31.640 a possibility of an emergency rate cut. Are we still 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.480 betting on aggressive moves from the Fed? Cut about thirty 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:35.200 seconds lab. 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.359 Yeah, No, I think For me, I think traders unfortunately 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:40.920 tend to overplay how much the Federal Reserve and other 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.760 economists that do actually look at financial markets. They're more 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:47.280 interested in economic data. For me, I don't think we'll 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:49.520 see an emergency cut. They'll have to rate for the 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:53.760 next meeting. I think that the Fed, like all central bankers, 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.800 are more focused on the macro numbers rather than five 0:15:57.800 --> 0:15:59.680 percent decline in the S and P five hundred. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:02.960 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:06.400 stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.480 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.200 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:14.440 get your podcasts. 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.240 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.880 am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.840 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.760 Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg 0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:27.520 ninety sixty in San Francisco. 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:31.080 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:36.560 Amazon Alexa devices, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:40.000 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERRIUSXM, 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.200 the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.320 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.280 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.640 need to start your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:01.680 every b