983: NFL Draft - An Elite Running Back Class

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha, JJ zacher Reason.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: What's up everyone, It's JJ zacher Esen in this episode nine and eighty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in if.

00:00:21
Speaker 1: You missed it.

00:00:21
Speaker 2: Last week, I sat down with jim Sonis to talk about this year's quarterback class. We've still got running back and wide receiver episodes to go, and today's episode is all about the running back. You guys have heard a lot of my takes on this class already. How I believe this is the best group since twenty seventeen. How we could really see a ton of backfield turnover across the league because this class is so talented. But I want you guys to get takes for more than just me, So I brought on my friend Jagger May, formerly a football guys, he's now doing work for Fast Draft to talk about this insanely good draft class. Jagger and I talked about his prospecting process and then we go through and analyze most of the top backs in the class. It's a great for any of you who aren't totally prepared for what's to come at the end of the month. Now before we get into the interview, I do want to mention that the Late Round Prospect Guide is ready to be consumed. You can head to lateround dot com right now and purchase it for nineteen ninety nine. The guide has a breakdown of what goes into my prospect and Year two models. You get eighty prospect profile write ups, you get scores for all relevant prospects. There's year two profiles and more. It's one hundred and sixty pages of information. Check it out now at lateround dot com, and if you purchase before the draft, you'll automatically get the post draft version of the guide as well. I do my best to get that post draft version out to you the night of the last day of the draft. That way you're ready to crush your rookie drafts. That's all on lateround dot com. Okay, now let's hear Jaggers take on this year's running back class. All right, Jagger, Before we get into this running back class and the individual players in it, how would you just simply describe your overall process with prospecting. I don't love to throw this out because I think there's a lot more nuance to it. But if you were to sort of like bucket things in terms of film versus analytics, like what's your mix with those two things.

00:02:14
Speaker 3: I'm a strong film guy, but what I've tried to do is immolate my own version of what Matt Harmon does so or like lant Zerline will do that as well, where I have a film grade, but I try to wait and balance that in a spreadsheet to where it's as objective as possible. So I'm breaking down I'm breaking down a prospect down to their parts, and then I'm looking at the sum of those parts, whereas like with my running back, can they catch passes, do they break have breakaway speed, contact, balance all these things to try to get a composite score. I know Dynasty Nerds does that as well, but not to my own horn. I feel like I've gotten away. I've got I understand film in a way that I kind of know what's important. But I will say, since we're talking running backs, I do have to make some adjustments because the NFL adjusts. So that's another reason why I have something that can quantify and I can go in the spreadsheet and wait things differently based on what the NFL is doing, you know, like like the increase of pass catchers when we used to love bruisers so.

00:03:16
Speaker 1: Much, right, right, I think that's really important. Like, like, one of the things that I really really love about the modeling aspect of prospecting and just really is that you can very easily test. You can very easily go back and kind of look at things and say, Okay, this is this is not correct, or this is working, this isn't working. And I think it's important to do that from a like you're saying, from a film perspective, to be able to at least like have something to go back and look at, as opposed to just saying, yeah, I think this, dude's good. You know, because if you're.

00:03:46
Speaker 2: Just doing that, you can be right, and you can be and you can have a great eye for it and you can be really really good at it. But if it's a simple, like you know, sort of more subjective way of doing that, I feel like, and maybe you would disagree, but I feel like it's just a lot easier to then go back and sort of refine what you're doing and get better at what you're doing by having those benchmarks essentially listed there for you to remember and jog.

00:04:12
Speaker 1: Your memory and go back and look.

00:04:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like the perfect example is Woody Marx. He's a prospect I've really liked, and my grade spit out a very good score. But I am I'm basically waiting to tell me for the NFL to tell me how much that looks, because I'm already anticipating that I'm gonna have to make major adjustments on pass catchers because I've waited them a little high. And like you said, I still think Woody Marx is a ten out of ten pass catcher, like arbitrary number. I'm not changing my perspective. I'm just changing how the algorithm perceives that.

00:04:42
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, yeah, makes sense. All right, Well, let's talk about this class like I look at it analytically. I watch these guys too.

00:04:48
Speaker 2: I have to always say that because I think people think that I'm only looking at a spreadsheet when I'm like writing up this giant prospect guide and stuff. But this running back class, you know a lot of people are saying it's elite. You know a lot of my numbers definitely point that direction. Would you agree, do you think, Like, let me say, if you were to rate this zero to ten. I did this with Matt Waldman's past week two. If you were to rate the class zero to ten, where on that scale would you rank it?

00:05:14
Speaker 3: In my brief career in comparison to someone like Matt Waldman, It's a ten for me because I haven't seen anything since like the Tank Big Speed class and stuff like that, like where we were excited about Sharbonnet not just Gibbs and Bjon Robinson, and I think this class is better than that as far as the back end depth. So like it's a ten out of ten for me.

00:05:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's looking good man.

00:05:36
Speaker 2: I mean, like you said, you're focused on pass catching, you said, and that being an important piece. Like I haven't seen a class of pass catchers this strong because I too way pass catching a lot within the model. It's really since twenty seventeen, like analytically, which is where we still have these monster monster running backs just doing crazy things in fantasy football to this day, I mean eight years later, you know. So yeah, I think it's an elite class as well. But let's let's talk about these individual running backs now, Ash and gent He is the consensus RB one. You know, there's there's talk that he could go sixth overall. His high sixth overall to Vegas. I think that we're looking at probably fifty percent or better chance that he would go top ten because Chicago's sitting there. I mean, there's just a very good chance that he has a great draft capital. Do you see, uh, GENTI as being the RB one in an elite prospect or is there someone else that you think is close?

00:06:35
Speaker 3: I think he's at RB one an elite prospect. I have a heart And this is me being a nerd and I'm sure your audience out there.

00:06:42
Speaker 1: Like nerd nerd, Yeah, we we love that.

00:06:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's it's uh. I have a hard time thinking that any one in the first round and the top of the first round, let's say, like the Raiders are a big one. I don't think you guys deserve Gent. There's like so many other needs.

00:06:59
Speaker 1: In the case when it running back too. Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, totally agree.

00:07:03
Speaker 3: So that's why I have a hard time. And here's where when you compare genty to other things where I have, I have a hard time putting him that highly. And let me get it in like Madden terms, I think Bjon Robinson is a ninety nine level prospect. Yeah that like you're gonna come in, He's gonna transform your your offense. I think Ashton Genty is like a ninety four on Madden, which is still probably the second best running back on the game. If you're into that stuff and it's it goes back down to the pass catching is I just don't think he's as elite of a downfield pass catcher as like Gibbs or Robinson. And with that being said, all the rest of these guys, let's say Trevion Henderson, they can have a better landing spot and the draft capital doesn't matter. But by the end of the twenty twenty five season, we're saying that they're closer to Genty than where we thought Genty was in comparison to b Jhon Robinson.

00:07:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, almost a situation where Genty is the RB one. We feel we both feel good about him being the RB one. But from your perspective, you're saying this class is good, very good, that you wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the year, similar to like you know, last year with the wide receiver class, where like Ladd McConkie now is up, where Marvin Harrison Junior is right, where everyone viewed Marvin Harrison Junior as his campus prospect, you know, et cetera, et cetera. But then you know, situationally and skill wise, talent wise, all that, McConkey did his thing his rookie year, and now he is, you know, ranked right there ahead of for most Marvin Harrison Junior. So like you're saying, are you saying like that? You could see a scenario where sure, Gent might be RB one right now because he's an easy projection, but when it comes to how things actually go down, you could see a scenario where other running backs sort of close that.

00:08:52
Speaker 3: Gap one hundred percent. You net, like the Ladd McConkey comp is, Yeah, it is like perfect because I think mhj is still a good prospect even though he disappointed, But I do think Lad McConkie's probably the better value right now. You know, That's just that's why fantasy football tell everyone's not black and white, and it's not just straight rankings. Like there's a lot of different things, a lot.

00:09:13
Speaker 1: Of gray area, a lot of nuance.

00:09:14
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about Mario and Hampton then, because now a lot of these mocks have him. You know, whether it's DJ or whomever. Mel Kiper's had him high. Kuiper had him like a month ago or less than a month ago, going twelfth to Dallas. So like he's been, you know, Hampton's been rising in these mocked rafts. Do you think that he is the clear cut RB two in a tier.

00:09:35
Speaker 1: Of his own?

00:09:36
Speaker 3: I think him and Henderson are are neck and neck for me, and it's for different reasons, you know. It's this is where I go back to, like the Madden thing. I think they're both ninety two overall running backs. One of them is just a straight downhill runner and then the other one offers a little bit more upside in the passing game. But he may not get as many early touches and you may always have like a David Montgomery with him and that Yeah, again that's just hypothetical right now.

00:10:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, that being Henderson you're saying with this, Yeah, yeah, So, like, do you do you have any comps for Hampton? Like, is there a guy that comes to mind as you're watching him, and like you think that the kind of impact he might be able to make as far as comps, it reminds me a lot of Joe Mixon without a lot of.

00:10:22
Speaker 3: The receiving on there where you got just like a big guy with a lot of with enough speed to consistently give him the ball where he's not like what, why is David Montgomery plodden for four yards of care or three yards of carry? It's not that. So that's what he reminds me of a little bit, is these Joe Mixon type super athletes that move quickly at a large size.

00:10:43
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, I think like Hampton to me, if he gets that first round capital, it's gonna be easy for me to say he's RB two. I'll put him in a tier probably on his own, just because the capital's there.

00:10:55
Speaker 3: Yea.

00:10:55
Speaker 2: But the Trayvon Henderson thing, it's it's interesting that you're I mean, I love that because he's RB three two, you know, or if he's your RB two, but regardless, uh, Traygon Henderson.

00:11:05
Speaker 1: So you see him as a tier above the quin Shawn Judkins, Caleb Johnson or whomever after that, and do you have then Judkins and Johnson right below that or or things start because that's a that's around the point in time. Because you know, you get gent RB one, a lot of people will have Hampton RB two and then you get into like Trayvion Judkins, Caleb Johnson, and then there's like for a lot of people, more of that like tier break there. But you see Henderson as a standalone three, you know, RB three or maybe even RB two, and then a gap until the the the Judkins, maybe Caleb Johnson tier.

00:11:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then it's just because from a film standpoint like one, he is the probably the juiciest back, meaning that he like he's got the like one of the best burst scores. I think he has the highest recorded miles per hour out of this class, he has the best receiving upside, and I just can't ignore that. And compared to the other ones, and you know that I have Judkins and Caleb Johnson right there as like another tier. And to give you an example of putting money where my mouth is, and I'm not saying that like Judkins or Johnson sucks, It's just that deep is like I traded a second to get Caleb Johnson because someone drafted him one pick ahead of me in a startup in the seventh round, and I was just like, I was like, I was so mad. I'm like, here's the second, Just give him to me. I know I'm moving one day. Oh like I still And this goes back to the point why it's legendary, Like these RB fives, I'm trading decent amount of capital to get even in a startup, to have as my RB two in a starting lineup.

00:12:39
Speaker 1: Yeah.

00:12:39
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:12:39
Speaker 2: So with with Judkins and Johnson, are do you have any pass catching concerns with those guys like Judkins in my prospect model has a below average breakout score, which is all based on receiving numbers. Now he has, you know, the best season reception share that's sub nine percent, and the combination of those two things. We rarely see those kinds of players see fifteen percent targets, you know, even twelve eleven percent and thirteen percent targeteers. Can they be you know, eight nine percent target chair players? Of course? But is there a concern from your perspective with Judkins as a receiver.

00:13:15
Speaker 3: Judkins know Johnson? Yes, because Judkins I've seen it and I know. And this is where I tell everyone we're watching the games, or not even watching games, having in context on how a team is built and runs their offense. Judkins can do it. They just like I have Henderson, and he's just better so I'm just gonna use him on a lot of these things. But we even saw in like the National Championship game, I think, or someone in the playoffs where Judkins got a lot of that receiving work. Caleb Johnson I never see anything downfield ever, So it's a lot of concern.

00:13:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's it's I mean, also, Iowa just doesn't throw the ball at all correct. You know, the first couple of years was really tough for him to compile, you know, strong receiving numbers and like just raw numbers. And even last year at least his reception share rose. But yeah, I mean, it doesn't seem like Johnson is going to be a plus at least you know, from a from receiving standpoint. Camp Scataboo has people all over the place in terms of evaluation.

00:14:13
Speaker 3: Where are you at with him? You have in the associate Is he overrated, underrated, or just right? I think he's now just right. He was overrated for so long and it's we saw why. I just don't think he has top end speed and athleticism. And actually I can give him credit on the athleticism because he did have a good broad jump and a vertical. I think so like that that that matters. He he's so weird because he's getting a lot of David Montgomery comps. And I love Moni, but camp Scataboo is such a better and more nuanced receiver. I just don't know what to do with him because I I don't know how the It's easy for me to see what the NFL will, how they'll use or how they'll view some of these other prospects. But not to sound crappy, but when you have like a slower white dude, they tend to undervalue these guys and then you need to Bill Belichick out there to to want to use them. And that's and and that's just me judge in the NFL. So it's like I'm gonna draft him in the third round. I have a hard time taking him any earlier than that because historically this is the type of guy that dynasty people will like more than the NFL does, and I'm just not willing to bet too highly on that.

00:15:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, he has an interesting uh comp profile in the in the Prospect Guy the lay Round Prospect Guide, where his high end one was Kareem Hunt, where again another another player who could do it all and can play all three downs and and you know, I mean he I think Kareem Hunt is probably a little bit better of a receiver, maybe better, I don't even know, though, I mean, like especially analytically, like uh Camp Skataboo has an unbelievably like I think of any running back in this class, the only back who's better than Skataboo from a production standpoint, an age adjusted production standpoint, is probably Genti.

00:16:03
Speaker 1: It's probably like because his numbers are just wild.

00:16:06
Speaker 2: But again the explosiveness, like he if you look at players historically or at least over the last fifteen or so years who have had decent draft capital and had the type of explosive rate that Cam Skataboo's had, it's like AJ Dillon and Blake Korm. I think there's one other guy who has not been, you know, anything like overly special at the NFL level. That's a concern, Like you said, like the lack of explosiveness, and I think I agree where it's like, do you think that teams are going to see him as a true pass catcher that can handle a twelve thirteen percent target share or are they going to kind of type cast him in a way because of his size and his lack of explosiveness, because teams generally will want to have a more explosive player back there when dumping the ball off, you know, in those in those passing down situations.

00:16:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's a and it gets if you get even nerdier into like the x's and o's. If you think of someone like Sean McVay and all his subsidiaries and branches, they don't like using multiple backs like it shows our hand. You know, we want a guy. That's why Kyen Williams gets at Burn. He's like that he can block for us, he can run our scheme, and he can catch passes. I can't see that for Camp Scattaboo. Maybe the Chiefs because Andy Reid doesn't like he doesn't care about a lot of the things that other people do. So that that's why I'm willing to gamble, especially these early drafts on Camp Scattaboo. But at an adjusted rate of third round.

00:17:30
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about Dylan Sampson, someone I haven't really brought up that much on the show.

00:17:36
Speaker 1: I feel like he's someone though.

00:17:37
Speaker 2: That if you look like NFL mock draft database, if you look at some mock drafts, like he looks like a Day two player to what the mock draft community is saying, do you think that's warranted? Are you high on on Samson or are there some concerns for you.

00:17:53
Speaker 3: I am one of the biggest Tennessee volunteer haters to ever walk there, and I don't I.

00:17:58
Speaker 1: Was gonna say that was gonna get one or two directions.

00:18:01
Speaker 3: Lovers guess yeah, And it's like, and I'm just being honest, I don't mean that, Like I actually like Tennessee as far as the school. One of my best friends went there. I've always watched them. It's just they have kind of a Disney offense, man, and they keep inflating these players, like let's look at Jalen Wright, someone who had one of the best speed scores out of last year's class, but he's a Stevie Wonder. He can't see and that is a problem. I don't think Dylan Samson's that bad, but my comp for him is Kyen Williams. And I think that. And I always tell people, whatever that means to you, that's what it is, because like to me, Karen Williams, you give me that, and I'm like, I don't like that unless he goes to the right situation where a team can utilize him for his skills, I will I will take notice of him then. But Dylan Sampson, I can't see him getting picked up by the Raiders or something like that and him being this fifteen touchback that is gonna consistently being fantasy rosters just because Tennessee's offense continually puts out these guys that have a lot of tools but aren't exactly every down players.

00:19:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, seems to have some explosiveness to his game. My analytical worry is that the receiving profiles, and that's strong. Now again, you go back to the Tennessee stuff you have. You know, you had Jalen Wright, you even had you know, uh, Jalen Hyatt and and Cedric Tillman and these wide outs.

00:19:33
Speaker 1: Who are you know?

00:19:33
Speaker 2: Hyatt had one of the most unoff fraudulent.

00:19:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, one of the most fraudulent production profiles. You know.

00:19:40
Speaker 2: Like, my model didn't mind it because it's not looking at the nuance the way that we would more subjectively look at the nuance.

00:19:46
Speaker 1: But yeah, blittna cooff.

00:19:48
Speaker 2: Guy and uh was able to do crazy, crazy things out of the slot for Tennessee. But that's the kind of offense that we're dealing with, which to me just make like to me, it's like if you're loo at Sampson, I don't think that he's like necessarily bad. I just I'm looking at Samson when you have a situation like that and you do have some like analytical red flags and it's within a class like this, Like if Dylan Samson were coming out last year, I don't like if this exact profile. I think that if we saw him as a Day two pick, we probably wouldn't have as much criticism as we do this year, just because there are so many good running backs that you can choose from, and Dylan Sampson just seems to be that. Dude, do you think that he's gonna go Day two? Like have you seen positive reports or is it more do you think do I think? Do you think he's more of a Day three guy? But do you think he could go Day two?

00:20:38
Speaker 3: I think he's a Day three guy. And if he and what I'll tell everyone, it matters more and people fall than when they rise, because it takes thirty two teams to say no multiple times, but it only takes one team to say yes, So like I could he go day two? Yeah, I just some of these other guys. We're going to talk about, why would a team want to take Dylan Samson when you can have higher upside or you have a more defined role With some of these other dudes that we're going to talk about later who are also Day three guys. I'm not saying their Day two right, right.

00:21:05
Speaker 2: It's one of those things where it's like, yeah, it's possible for Dylan Sampson, but we're also trying to look at the median outcome here too, and the probable outcome.

00:21:14
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Damian Martinez. Where are you at with him?

00:21:16
Speaker 2: Because that's another player where I feel like, you know, analytically, I definitely have some things that I will call out, but but I do think that the film space and a lot of the folks were who are looking things like without analytics involved, they seem to really like Martinez.

00:21:32
Speaker 1: Where are you at with him?

00:21:34
Speaker 3: I like him a lot. I was a hater and reformed. It was it was a tale of two seasons with Damian Martinez on tape his first one, I'm like, this guy looks like he transferred to a bigger school and it doesn't look like it fits. But as the season went on and cam Ward that things started, Jael he looked really good and my com for him is a Ramandre Stevenson, and I think he's a good bruiser. He is capable as a receiver. He's not gonna be doing anything downfield, but I definitely think he's not gonna be a liability if you lose use them behind and close to the line of scrimmage. He is one of these third and fourth round guys that I am targeting often. Like I know at the at the end of this draft cycle, by the beginning of the season, I'm gonna have significantly more Damian Martinez that I'm gonna have of Dylan Sampson and probably cam Skataboo, just because of the upside and his cost.

00:22:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, the cost I think is gonna be there because there's gonna be morons like myself who say and and and point out the receiving stuff that you noted that I do want to say though. Number one, it definitely always scares me when I see a red flag with somebody or I'm I'm lower on somebody, and then smart people like yourself for Matt Waldman, because Waldman's really high on Martinez too, are saying the opposite, right, and they like him.

00:22:50
Speaker 1: You know.

00:22:50
Speaker 2: One of the things that Waldman uh pointed out on perspectives was that before he transferred to Miami, the offense that he was playing in a lot of the there was a lot of like quarterback movement where you know, if you're running a play action and bootleg, then the quarterbacks going to the one side of the field, Martinez is going to the other side, and the defense is focusing on Martinez because he's that good of a player and that good of a running back, and so it's opening things up for the offense. But in those situations, it's really difficult to get the running back the ball through the air, right, So so the receiving stuff isn't necessarily going to be as strong his you know, look, his best season reception share was only five point four percent, which is pretty low. You know, that's that's definitely a number that is a red flag for me analytically. But again, I think that having the different perspectives on a guy like that is really really important. And the more that I hear people like him, the more worried I am about the zap model, being like, eh, maybe you know, I don't know exactly what Damian Martinez.

00:23:46
Speaker 3: Well, it's you've told me how it works. It's the receiving thing because like, and this is what I tell people, like, uh, I quote Ian Hard. It's in my head all the time. It's just like just a guy getting one and a half fantasy sometimes, like Damian Martinez is probably gonna be an Ian Hard. It's tweet at some point on here where it's like his his high end upside is probably David Montgomery. I use Remandre as like a stylistic comp I don't think he's gonna be eating five targets a game because there's no one.

00:24:16
Speaker 1: But yeah, but I don't think Ramandre Stevenson should be doing that, you know, that's my point.

00:24:22
Speaker 3: Remondre shouldn't even be getting that.

00:24:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing.

00:24:26
Speaker 2: Like I and again, I'm gonna use this same example and sort of like way in philosophy that I look at running backs as pass catchers, as I talked about with Waldman and I've talked about before on the show. But I kind of see it as like there's three buckets. They're either elite they're bad or they're just neutral, and the neutral group of pass catchers, you know, the elite guys, the CMCs, the Gibbs, whatever, and then the bad guys. You know, maybe at the NFL level, we're looking at like Gus Edwards or like you know Film MafA yeah, Film MafA exactly yeah, or Klee Mullings, like players that, like you just you know, it's unlikely that they're going to be pluses or even like fairly neutral as pass catchers at the next level. I think that Martinez to me is on the fringe of like neutral to probably not see. And that's where you're talking about where the ceiling comps come in of a Montgomery, but you know, like for like the statistical comps for him in the prospect model where like you know, Mike Gillesley or like Chris Rodriguez, right, another guy who big bodied guy who could get that early down work, but I don't know how much of a plus pass catcher he would be. Those aren't the high end comps. But I see what you're saying with like the Montgomery style, and I think that's helpful for people listening that if they're using this as sort of a primer for the running back position. Damian Martinez is a big body dude who.

00:25:44
Speaker 1: Can buldoze some folks. Yes, yeah, all right, let's talk about DJ Giddens because I again I'm going back to the Waldman thing because it's fresh in my mind, and you know, he's another obviously draft analyst and rookie analyst. He was lower on Giddons than I am. I was like, the model loves it some DJ Giddens, and I'm really curious, maybe you could break the tiebreaker between us.

00:26:08
Speaker 3: It's hilarious because I avoid Matt Waldman all draft cycles so I don't spin out the same thing. I already know what he's gonna say. I was like, I just don't think he has very good running technique compared to a lot of them. He runs really high, he doesn't have the best vision, but once he gets past that line of scrimmage, man, it's magical. So like, I get what some of these guys see. And especially when you think of like where he played at in the Big twelve or whatnot, there's something there and here's I have him circled as like my come to Jesus players. When I talk about James Cook is one I don't like. I've never liked James Cook's model. I've never liked James Cook, and then here I am your three. James Cook's asking for fifteen K a year, and he probably deserves it. That's how I see DJ Giddens because all of my complaints about James Cook, with the exception, I think DJ Giddens is more oft there they kind of go hand in hand, So I think he's another one who's appropriately valued. But he's one where I'm gonna pick Damien Martinez ahead of him, just because I just think Damian Martinez is a more polished player.

00:27:13
Speaker 2: It seems like Giddens is a guy who's gonna look better in models than how you view him because the athleticism is crazy for Gidden's I feel like we'll talk about Beasehall Tuoton here in a second, but I feel like if Tutin hadn't run the forty that he did and have the speed score that he had, and maybe like Amari and Hampton not having like the crazy you know, size, speed and combination and athletic testing that he did, more.

00:27:38
Speaker 1: People might be talking about DJ Giddens's combine.

00:27:40
Speaker 2: It just feels like it kind of flew under the radar just because everyone was fast at the combine. You know, everyone seem to be athletic. But then he you know, he at least hits some base lines that I like to see players hitting analytically when it comes to pass catching, you know, he has decent enough size, all that kind of stuff. But I do like what you said really really matches up with what said, So I think that you know, folks listening, you know, if you've heard me say positive things about Giddons, it's it's again good to have this other angle, this other perspective to say, Okay, yeah, there's there's like, to me, he looks like a just given what I've talked about with you and when I talked about with Waldman, it feels like a very like low floor, high ceiling situation with yes, like like it could it could absolutely hit and hit in a big way. But to me, that's like kind of the perfect third round rookie pick right at the end of the day, Like that's the kind of dude that you probably want to invest in.

00:28:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's like and that's why I made the thing. It's like i'd like to bet on these players, but like I could see you better than I'm not seeing a void. Yeah, like a gains because like you said, man, like there's something magical there. It's and this is what sucks about the modern NFL. It's it's like, Wow, that's a really talented person. The NFL is not going to take the time to work with them to make him better, and that's what sucks.

00:28:56
Speaker 2: All right, let's let's talk about base shall Tutan real quick? Because again he crushed the combine. I think the combine might have made him a Day two pick, like maybe we see it happen. Whereas if he didn't have the combine he did in that forty time that he had, there's almost no way he.

00:29:11
Speaker 1: Would be going Day two. Where are you at with Tutin and what you've seen?

00:29:16
Speaker 3: You just kind of said it, man, I will say Tuton is one of these players when you're watching film. I've watched the Virginia Tech versus Miami game a thousand times, Like sometimes like during that game, I was like, who is this kid? It's like zooming around there and that's Tuton there. I feel like him a little bit. How people retire on Tracy where it's kind of like you're saying with DJ Giddens, is that I think he is someone that I am taking shots on in the third and fourth round. He doesn't seem polished. But whereas like Giddons, I think is athletic, I think Tutin is a tier above You're talking about elite, and he is at that level where probably an NFL team is like, maybe we should work with this kid and get something. So I like him enough, and I think the combine is something that matters more than it doesn't.

00:30:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, he has for me, one of the widest.

00:30:09
Speaker 2: Range of outcomes of any running back in this correct. You know, like wild, wild, big playability. Like when you watch him, I mean he's just his acceleration is way, his ability to get downfield and just make these huge plays is His home run hitting ability really is wild, and which is why the models saw him in sort of like the Kenneth Walker mold in that way, like the the the Go Bigger, Go Home Now Walker was a much more prolific rusher and had more ability coming out. So I'm not saying that like he is that because on the other end, it's Darrenton Evans, you know, It's.

00:30:42
Speaker 1: Like, it's that's just.

00:30:45
Speaker 2: The way that I think things will go down with base Shall Tutin. It comes down like the guys like get Ins, the guys like Tutin, like would you agree? I like, And then if you want to throw Martinez in there and sort of like wrap this up. I see Martinez as a safer but I think that because I think a team is gonna be willing to give him some work, Whereas I think there's a possibility Giddins and Tutin don't do anything, but there's also a possibility that they dominate and they crush whatever wherever they end up getting drafted.

00:31:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like, you nailed it, Davey Martinez. You're probably gonna get something for at least like a season or two and then maybe he'll wash out. But DJ Giddons and Tutin, you can get nothing or everything. It's totally like a coin flip there. Yeah, that's an interesting point there.

00:31:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, it comes down to risk tolerance the end of the day. All right, So we talked about a lot of the high end guys are there any day three picks Round three to five rookie draft picks at running back that you're interested that that maybe, I mean whether or not others are interested in them or not, like guys that really pop for you.

00:31:49
Speaker 3: I'm gonna keep the speaking the good word on Woody Marks. I think he's a and then I see a place for him in the NFL, and I'll tell everyone he can be a team's poor man's Jamier Gibbs. And you know, do I need to say homeless man for people not to get crazy? You know, there's a lot of receiving upside there. His his RADS score doesn't blow anyone away, but it's it's average, but he's very polished. Le Quent Allen is another one where he's something whereas like is he JD McKissick. Maybe is he in every down back? Probably not at his size, But they're just so such good receivers. It's hard for me not to think the NFL, especially now we live in a world where they use committee backs where they don't get some burn.

00:32:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're you're really going after those pass catchers there with both of them leaning hard? Yeah, I mean, look, Allen has arguably the best receiving production profile in the class. I mean, it's it's wild. And then what he Mark's obviously, you know he got some of that work. Is there any concern for you that Marx played a little with with Mike Leech And there's been you know, some receiving backs that have come out under Leach, Like do you care about that? Are you just looking at traits at the end of the day that that you know, Leech has had, like Max Borghie and some some of these other backs that have come out that have had these gaudy receiving profiles. You know, Mark still did it without Leech, uh and rest in peace, But you know, is that part of your valor? Are you just like I see what I see, and I'm seeing this with what he marks, and he looks like he can be a good pass catcher.

00:33:24
Speaker 3: His film score that I have is purely off USC tape because like if you look at if you look at his historical you're like, oh wow, he's the greatest receiving running back to double walk. But it's like you said, that's like that Memphis offense was or yeah was Memphis Missisippi State when Mississippi State, Yeah, Mississippi State was was was funky and uh and fraudulent, but he kind of did everyone loved Marshawn Lloyd. Yeah, Marshall Lloyd is more athletic, I'll give him there, but I think that Marx was way more productive and there's a reason why. He's just much more polished of a player.

00:33:58
Speaker 1: Jaggerman, this was great preciate the time.

00:34:00
Speaker 2: Anyone who wants to check out everything going on with Jagger his work had to Twitter. Give him a follow at jag says, make sure you're also checking out the Late Round Prospect Guide otherwise I'll catch you later this week with another Mailbag episode.

00:34:14
Speaker 1: Talk to you then,