284: Mailbag 9/20/19

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Speaker 1: This is the labor of podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa JJ zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's jj Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode two hundred and eighty four of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the Fan Duel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. One of the most common questions this week surrounded the Chargers backfield. If you've got Austin Eckler, do you trade them right now thinking that Melvin Gordon will be back at some point, or do you let things ride and cross your fingers that a trade for Gordon eventually gets done. The answer to the question is that nobody really knows. It's a really difficult thing to wrap your head around right now since it's only week three. But I'll at least try to use some logic here and explain what I would do. And I'm someone who has a decent bit of Austin Eckler, so I'm in the same boat as a lot of you are in those leagues. I'm holding tight. I broke down this contract situation with Melvin Gordon back in late July, which is really when I took the stand and said that I wasn't likely to draft Gordon this year, and I didn't because it seemed clear that he wasn't going to report, and it seemed clear that the Chargers didn't care a whole lot or that they weren't going to pay him to this point, though, after doing some reading and talking to some agents who know contracts a lot better than I do, it sounded like Gordon would have to report at some point in order for his contract to not toll. We don't really know when that would have to be, but the best educated guess was that he'd have to report by like week ten or so. That made Austin Eckler a pretty attractive fantasy option because you'd get half of a fantasy season of a high volume back for a small price tag. I do think that the most probable outcome here is that Gordon eventually reports around that time and he eases into a role where he's the primary back for the Chargers. But that leads us to two big points. Number One, that may not happen. That's just the most likely outcome if it doesn't happen, like if he pushes things further and he reports later than expected, or if he gets traded, then hear Austin Eckler shares looking pretty nice through the rest of the season. But even if it does happen, it's not as though Eckler becomes some worthless piece to your fantasy team. He can still be a flex player, a viable RB two depending on how that backfield is split. And I would argue that the return that you'd get for Eckler right now isn't at the level that he's currently producing it or the level that he would hypothetically produce at if he were the starter for the rest of the season. You're still selling him at a discount because other league managers know that Melvin Gordon could come back. Don't think for a second that the person that you would be trading with wouldn't question why you're giving up Austin Eckler. So again, my answer is that I'm holding tight. It's not an easy decision to make, but in a worst case scenario, as long as an injury doesn't occur, Eckler is likely to still be a lower end RB two or a higher end RB three. He still can be utilized in that offense with Melvin Gordon that's been the case in the past, so hold tight and hope that Gordon's traded is that Eckler can just own that backfield. But even if he returns later in the season, you still likely will get a whole lot of production for Eckler, and by that point in the season, so many things will have changed to where you can find a viable replacement for him. In some instances, you can play for the playoffs in fantasy football. You can plan ahead, and you should, but in this one, where you'd be selling at a discount, you've got to play for now so that you can secure that playoff spot. Now, before we get into questions today, just as a reminder, we've got another Fandel free play for all Fandel podcast listeners to enter and have a chance at a Number five Premium subscription. Just go to fandle dot com slash League slash Gym, then make your lineup and then submit that lineup that's fandle dot Com Slash League slash Jim. If you win, you'll get a free subscription to Number five Premium. This first question is from at miss Iguana. Are you giving up on Duke Johnson yet? No, I'm not giving up on Duke Johnson yet, but the usage in week two was very, very tilting. Week one, I thought and I said, that people were overreacting to Carlos Hyde's usage because they were The split in rushes was really close, but Duke had like a fourteen percent advantage in target share. And then this past week everything was bad and everything was sad. The rushing split was basically three quarters Hide, one quarter Duke, and Johnson was only targeted once. I do think it's a situation though, where you're just gonna feel more comfortable playing Duke when the game looks to be closer and higher scoring. This week is sort of in the middle with a contest against the Chargers, but they get Atlanta and Kansas City over their next four games. I wouldn't want to bench Duke Johnson more than likely in those contests. So keep Duke, but I'm afraid the upside isn't going to really be there for him without a Hide injury. This next question is from at Sad Melander. Which streamers should I play over Oj Howard? So here's the thing with OJ Howard. Yes he's underperformed, Yes it's annoying as hell, but in this current landscape. Tight end streamers are absolutely horrendous. It's not like you can hit the waiver wire and confidently play someone who's gonna walk into seven or eight targets. So I think Howard is still a better option than most streamers, depending on your league. Of course, you've got to just hope that they start using OJ Howard a little bit more, and they might given matchups too. The Bucks have faced teams that have good fronts, so they've needed extra blocking help, and games where that's not necessary, maybe we see OJ Howard unleashed. This next question is from at Jeff Cohen fifty two. Stick with Marvin Jones as my wide receiver four or five or grab McLaurin or DJ Chark. I've got nothing against Marvin Jones, but I'd rather have McLaurin on my team. There's a higher target shair potential. Mclaurin's looked really good. And for the record, I went on Twitter and I took my l on McLaurin this week. I made fun of mel Kiper for mock drafting McLaurin in the first round over the off season, and mel Kiper owned me. I've been owned McLaurin looks great, and he's another Ohio state wide receiver that was tough to prospect through data. It's one of those things where moving forward, we just know that Ohio State guys are different. We knew that going into this year. It's always been a thing, but we just know that even more now. This next one says, what do we do with the handcuff rookie running backs who have yet to do much of anything but present high upside? Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill, Damien Harris, Darryl Henderson, The list goes on. I think the answer to this question is in the question itself. They're handcuffs. We thought they might have standalone value, but that hasn't come to fruition, so they're really just waiting for an injury. I think Justice Hill has the best chance to carve out a role of those players, though, because we haven't seen Baltimore in a negative gamescript yet, and if they're forced to throw more, he may end up being the one who benefits in that backfield as a pass catcher. But yeah, you can drop some of these guys if you need a more usable piece on your team. Right now, they're just stashes. This nice question is from at FF life, How should you ideally allocate bench resources like between various positions and the kinds of players at each position, and is the ideal allocation sensitive to what part of the season you're at. I would love to hear you just talk more about optimizing bench strategy throughout the year. Yeah. So I think that this is kind of more of an art rather than an exact science. But we know that your bench is for depth. That depth can be used as trade assets, but it's also there to plug into your starting lineup when you need the help. Now to this point, I generally will weigh my bench positionally based on where I'm solid in my starting lineup. If I have Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey, it's less necessary for me to have a running back on my bench who's a low ceiling player like Carlos Hide. Isn't the right kind of running back for that scenario. You want handcuffs or truly high upside backs. But maybe your RB two spot sucks, maybe you play that spot by matchup. In that case, Carlos Hide is a usable player on your roster. He matters a lot more if your starting lineup is really good, then use a good chunk of your bench for high upside players that could be handcuffs or just players who are young and maybe haven't gotten a shot yet. But if your starting lineup is great, you don't really need someone like Corey Davis, someone who's in a low volume offense who likely won't be a weekly starter for you this season. Instead, shoot for more upside. That's how I manage my bench, and honestly, it's why making recommendations on who to add and drop is kind of hard to do in a blanket statement way because it typically is team dependent. This next question says, in a league where the owners typically aren't very informed, they make moves based on name value because they recognize them, et cetera, how do you approach sending trades. The names they know are studs and I don't want to part with them, But the lesser known I like, but they don't know them. So first off, I think that you should be open to parting with anyone on your team. I just want to make that statement. Every player has some cost, but I've found in more casual leagues that production is really important. People will click a player's profile on ESPN or Yahoo. They'll see how they've produced of late, and they'll go by that. So that means understanding regression is a really big deal. It's easier to buy low and sell high in these types of leagues, and it's then the easiest to sell a high profile name who's also producing, but that production being a little bit fluky makes it easier to sell. Those are the ideal sells in these types of leagues. This next question is from at baller angry. Wtf do I do as a Devonte Freeman owner? I talked about Freeman a bit on yesterday's Matchup Show, but I don't think now's the time to bail. I actually once talked about this exact scenario happening before the season started, since Atlanta was facing Minnesota and Philly to start the year. But things aren't all that bad for Freeman. I'll just repeat what I said in the Matchup Show. He's eighteenth in the NFL and percentage of team snaps played, he's nineteenth, and running back share, he's twenty ninth in target share, and he's just one of twelve running backs this season to have sixty six percent of his team's running back Rushes and nine percent of his team's targets, so selling him now when he's at his lowest doesn't make a ton of sense. You've got to just hold and hope that things bounce back. This next question from at New York Ets Fan twenty four. Hey, JJ, love the pod trade question here. While making a trade, do you look at the players being swapped in a deal or how it would impact your starting lineup? For example, trading Mixin and a Rob for Le'Veon if a Rob is on my bench? Thanks? Yeah, so I do think that every trade needs context. The first thing is to just look at the trade and say is this fair? Even if it's making your starting lineup better, because you may be able to get a better deal elsewhere. Like, let's just take this to the extreme. You've got DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Davante Adams all on the same team. You can only start two wide receivers though. Meanwhile you're starting running backs or Dion Lewis and Giovanni Bernard. If you were giving up Michael Thomas for Tarik Cohen, would you do it? Tarik Cohen's an upgrade over your running backs, and you don't really need Michael Thomas given the other receivers on your team. But of course you wouldn't do that trade because Cohen is worse straight up compared to Michael Thomas. So the trade has to be fair to begin with. But the trade hypothetically should make both starting lineups better after the trade is done. So looking at starting lineups is really really important when getting a deal done, but you shouldn't sacrifice a ton of value with your focus on that lineup. This next question is from at you can call me SRS. What is the difference between David Montgomery and Leonard Fournette, same quarterback, same defense, pending Jalen, who do you like more? I don't really think it's the same quarterback in the same defense, but I also think that that's beside the point. There's a large difference between Montgomery and Fournette and how they're used. Fournett is one of two running backs in the league right now who's seen ninety five percent or more of his team's running back rushes, and he's also seen an eighteen percent target share while doing that. David Montgomery through two games, has a running back rushing share that's about thirty percentage points lower than Leonard Fournette's and a target share that's about twelve percentage points lower. And it's unlikely that Montgomery ends up seeing a target chair in Fournette's range, given Tarik Cohen's presence in that backfield. So the difference between Montgomery and Fournette is volume, and that's a pretty big difference right now. This last question is from at Pickaxe Luke. Who do you like better rest of season? Daniel Jones or Mason Rudolph. This is actually a pretty tough one to answer. On one hand, you've got Daniel Jones is probably the better quarterback as many red flags and question marks as he had coming out, he has the draft capital behind him, and he looked great in the preseason, so I think he's more talented and he has some rushing upside too. However, I think that we'd argue that the Steelers' situation could be a little bit better. The offensive line is better, though New York's does look decent through two games, and Daniel Jones doesn't have a top wide out like Juju Smith Schuster. You could make the argument, though, that the combination of Evan Ingram Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate when he's back, Sterling Shepard when he's healthy, that those guys are better options than what Pittsburgh has. I think that's a valid argument right now, so I guess given talent and situation combined, I'd go with Danny Dimes. I'm actually kind of excited for both of these players though, and think that people may be underselling their impact and fantasy as streamers. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and as always, you can find me on Twitter and ask me questions on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone, have a great weekend and good luck in Week three.