1098: Post-Draft Rookie Rankings

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Draff j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone.

00:00:12
Speaker 2: It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode ten ninety eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.

00:00:18
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.

00:00:20
Speaker 2: I went over my pre draft rookie rankings right before the draft, and then my post draft rookie rankings were immediately in the Prospect Guy when that draft ended. But I don't do this post draft rookie rankings episode right away. I let it sit for a minute. That's why you heard the Analyzing Front office decision making episode last week that allowed me to talk more about these situations across the league and across the draft. But we're back with the rankings today. I'll be going through the first round of single quarterback rookie drafts, though I can tell you where I'd throw Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson and Superflex as well.

00:00:52
Speaker 1: It's a straightforward.

00:00:53
Speaker 2: Episode, but now that we have landing spots, I can talk about how I'm letting those landing spots dictate things. Now before I get in the post draft rankings, I just wanted to send another reminder about the Late Round Prospect Guide. It's all updated. It's ready for your rookie drafts, over one hundred and seventy pages of content, including a background on the ZAP Models, prospect write ups for every guy who is at the combine, year two profile writeups, rankings, and more. You can find it over on lateround dot com and it will deliver immediately to your email inbox after you purchase. Again, that's lateround dot com. Unsurprisingly, my one oh one didn't change pre to post draft. It's still Jeremiah Love. I don't need to go crazy talking about how good Jeremiah Love is as a prospect. I talked about that a couple of weeks ago. But the TLDR eighty eighth percentile, career avoided tackles per attempt rate, seventy fifth percentile, explosive run rate ninety six percentile, yards after contact per attempt ninety fourth percentile age, and schedule adjusted total yards per team playing his best season. The list goes on and on. If there's anything that you might point to and say that it could have been slightly better analytically, it's probably his twelve percent best season reception share. That's a sixty fifth percentile number in the ZAP Model. But you add all of the context on top of him being a great athlete and sharing a backfield with someone who ended up going round one, it's an awesome profile. People are gonna hate the landing spot, and yeah, I would have liked the place like Washington more than Arizona. We could very easily see another Ashton gent like season here where Love is maybe losing some work to start the year, probably to Tyler Algier, especially at the goal line, but then he's fed later on in the season. I do think that the Algier factor is something to consider in the short term only because we've seen him share a backfield with a stud in the NFL and he's taken work from that other player in Bjean Robinson. Algier saw ten goal line rushes last year. He's not bad in that role, but admittedly he's just been average when it comes to converting those compared to the fifteen year average of running backs converting goal line carries. Now, that probably doesn't truly matter from a coaching intent perspective. The Cardinals could very well see him in that role given his size, and let's be honest, Arizona probably won't be very good this year. They may not want to even drive Jeremiah Love into the ground, knowing that they want to get more out of him in twenty twenty seven and beyond.

00:03:12
Speaker 1: The good news is.

00:03:13
Speaker 2: That I do expect Love to play a pass catching role for the Cardinals this year, and that's in an offense that you see plenty of negative game scripts. You can feel bearish about the short term landing spot, and I get it, but players like this they typically find a way. Now, the next tier of players for me consists of Jordan Tyson and Carnell Tate, and you can throw Fernanda Mendoza in here in Superflex as well. I talked about him already on the pre draft show and we knew his landing spots, so nothing really changes there. I do have Tyson over Tate in my rankings, though, which goes against consensus. I'm keeping them in the same tier, but the ZAP model does have a decent enough gap between Tyson and Tate in favor of Tyson, and I actually don't mind the landing spot for Tyson at all. I said it last week, but Chris Alave compliments Tyson pretty well. In my opinion, He's a man. Tyson does well against zone I think Matt Harmon's reception perception work really shows that the.

00:04:06
Speaker 1: Saints may want to run the ball more.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: They actually had a minus three percent pass right over expected last year. But Number one, they're not strong enough defensively to not find themselves in negative game scripts consistently. And number two, Kellen Moore coach teams, they always run faster. They run a lot of plays. Last year, the Saints were first in the NFL and seconds per play in twenty twenty four. Kellen Moore's Eagles, a run heavy team, still rank close to top twenty and twenty twenty three. As Chargers offensive coordinator, the Chargers were first and seconds per play from twenty nineteen through twenty twenty two. When he was with the Cowboys, his offenses were third, first, second, and fourth and seconds per play. Tyler Schuck mostly looked the part, or at least played way better than expected last year, and I think Tyson can take on a lot of those underneath routes while moving all over the formation for the Saints. I kind of see him playing like a Garrett Wilson like role for New Orleans. We can't assume that he's going to be that good, but Tyson's ZAT model marks are excellent, including a ninety ninth percentile breakout score. That's a pretty predictive metric to lean on. Now, ME liking Tyson more than Tate doesn't mean that I don't like Carnell Tate. I do, and I love the fit for Tennessee. Now, on one hand, we didn't have to see Tate as the clear top target on his team in Ohio State, and that was at least a concern to his analytical profile. Would he be a target hog in the NFL or would he be someone who just works better as a real life player, stretching the field, opening things up underneath, et cetera. Well, in Tennessee, he could very easily lead that team in.

00:05:35
Speaker 1: Targets right away.

00:05:36
Speaker 2: We probably should project that to be the case, though I do think Wandell Robinson could be close. And one of the things everyone fell in love with with Tate was his ability to get down the field. He can win at all levels, including those down the field throws. And yes, cam Ward struggled last year. He was bottom five and completion percentage over expected, and he was dead last in EPA per dropback. He was significantly worse in EPA per dropback than JJ McCarthy. The weapons in the infrastructure, though clearly weren't there, and if nothing else, we know that Ward has the arm to get the ball down the field, even if that didn't happen quite as frequently as we won it last season. If you'd rather go Tate because the draft capitol was a little bit stronger, or you just like that, he's not competing with a great receiver in Chris alave be my guest, that's why they're in the same tier. But I do think that Tyson is the better prospect for fantasy football, and there's still plenty of avenues for Tyson to get his within that Saints offense. Things get interesting after the one to oh three in single quarterback leagues and the one oh four in super flex leagues. In my eyes, you could go after three players, the first one being Mackay Lemon. Now I mentioned this last week, but I do think the fit in Philadelphia it's really interesting for a few reasons. Number One, it signals that AJ Brown is probably gone. That's gonna happen soon, so we're assuming that he's out of the picture. Number Two, Lemon was a slot player in college. He ran almost seventy six percent of his out of the slot during his collegiate career, But like I said last week, I'm not going to be overly concerned about that when you layer on his production profile and his draft capital. Since twenty twenty, first round wide receivers with a sixty percent slot rader higher include Jerry Judy, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Wattle, Kadarius Tony, Drake London, Treylon Burks, Jackson Smith and Jigba Jordan Addison, a Mecca Buka, and now Mackay Lemon and Casey Conceptsion. If you look at seventy percent or more, you get Wattle, Tony Burks, jsn Abuka, and then the two guys from this year's class, and you may be hearing Kadarius Tony's name and you're scared. But his production profile was not even close to what you're getting with Mackay Lemon or even Casey Conceptsion. To me, the Eagles don't draft Lemon where they draft him if they're thinking that he can't move to the outside. Had he been a second round pick, maybe there's more concern, but with this draft capital that's less. So the case, Lemon does project a win in the short areas and in the middle of the field, though, and while j Aalen Hurts hasn't been bad when he has thrown to that area of the field, he hasn't done it frequently. In fact, since he entered the league, he's thrown to the middle of the field at the lowest rate in the NFL. Those are some of the stats that I threw out you guys last week. But the Eagles are a smart organization. They know all this, and that means that McKay lemon could be taking on a much bigger role than what he had in college.

00:08:22
Speaker 1: He has the ability to be.

00:08:23
Speaker 2: On the perimeter. His perimeter yards per out run across his career was the highest within this class and he had an eighty eighth percentile breakout score. But also there's a new offensive coordinator in town. Things should look a lot different in Philly year over year, and the fact that they took Eli Stowers that does hurt mckaye lemon a little bit, just because he's kind of in a similar boat where he works as a pass catching tight end, but he can work on the outside as well. But these moves signal to me that the Eagles have a plan and Lemon had a solid ZAP score that put him in the elite producer category.

00:08:55
Speaker 1: So my stance is that, yes, it would.

00:08:57
Speaker 2: Have been a cleaner projection had McKay Lemon gone to a more wide open depth chart where the quarterback was known for his accuracy on timing routes. That's what we got with like Aman Ross Saint Brown when he was drafted. Even if that's just a hindsight take, that means that Lemon has to do a little bit more in order to hit. He can't just hit his median projection as a player as a talent, but I'm willing to risk that at this point in rookie drafts because the overall profile is very strong.

00:09:23
Speaker 1: Now.

00:09:24
Speaker 2: I like Lemon in that spot, but the player I probably disagree versus consensus with more is Casey Conceptsione who I have next? Conceptsion falls to the Browns and everyone hates it, not just because it's the Browns, but they've got Jerry Judy, they have Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannins there and the Browns also drafted Denzel Boston in round two. I'm just a believer of a couple of things here. First, I think Conceptsion's a good prospect better than others do. He scored very close to Lemon and the ZAP model. He found himself in that elite producer category as well when it was all said and done. But second, I think you can squint and see sort of a bigger version of Zay Flowers with Nceepsion's profile, and Concepcion's profile is better according to the ZAP model. He's younger, he had a better breakout score, but both profiles were a little bit non traditional, and Todd Monkin worked with that and worked with Zay Flowers in Baltimore. And I'd also be shocked if a year from now we're looking at this Cleveland Browns team the exact same way. There's a very real chance they're drafting high next season and they're looking for a quarterback they can get out of Jerry Judy's contract, and Cedric Tillman's a free agent. This could be a case where I actually don't think Conceptsion is dust and redraft this year with this twenty twenty six season. But even if he is, the market may be more forgiving than you think, because the market will recognize that the situation will almost definitely be better next year. So I'm betting on the talent profile here with conceptsion, and I'm saying that while I think the landing spot isn't amazing, it's probably not quite as bad long term as many think.

00:10:52
Speaker 1: And then the other.

00:10:53
Speaker 2: Player in this tier for me is the biggest riser post draft and this Jendarium Price. If you want to take Price above the wider receivers, I can get behind it. Just know that it's a lot more volatile. I'd rather take the wideouts if I had just one dynasty roster. Yes, the first round draft capital is nice, and he actually doesn't look that bad in the ZAP model because of that capital, and because he played alongside Jeremiah Love, who went about as high as he possibly could have gone this year from a draft capital perspective, that's really boosting Price's teammate score. But yeah, I mean, in the end.

00:11:26
Speaker 1: We just don't know.

00:11:27
Speaker 2: Price is the worst production profile not just any first round running back in the ZAT model's history, but also any Day one or Day two pick. That's what I would argue among top one hundred picks in the ZAP Model database. At running back, which goes back to twenty eleven, Price's dead last and pro rated best season reception share. He's tied for the second worst adjusted total yards per team play, which looks at total yards per team play and adjusted for strength of schedule and age, and that's of his best season. Only Josh Jacobs was worse, but Jacobs had a lot more going for him as a receiver. And funny enough, by the way, the player that Price is tied with who has top one hundred draft capital within that metric is Kaylon Black. But then Price has an adjusted receiving yards for team pass attempt that's sixth worst, and each of the backs with a lower number busted. This is an outlier case, to say the least, and because of that we have to keep an open mind. It's different than a player like Kaylon Black, who didn't get the same type of draft capitol and who's twenty four and a half years old. He had his opportunity to shine, he just didn't really do that. With Price, he played alongside a truly elite prospect who got insane draft capital. I've said this before on the show, but while I do think Seattle is a great landing spot within the context of possible reasonable landing spots in this class.

00:12:42
Speaker 1: I don't think it's like amazing.

00:12:44
Speaker 2: The team lost Clinton Kubiak to the Raiders, so the offense might not be as strong in.

00:12:47
Speaker 1: The short term and it could look different.

00:12:50
Speaker 2: Just to be fair, maybe we see less of a split backfield compared to last year, but we definitely saw a split backfield last year with Kenneth Walker. I wrote the following in the Late Round Prospect Guide. It's probably still worthwhile to temper expectations. Seattle ran hot last year and still ranked his twelfth and running back PPR scoring, and they frustratingly split their backfield. In sixteen games with Kenneth Walker and Sharbonay active together, Walker led with a forty three point two percent rushing share to Sharboney's thirty eight point eight percent twelve point eight to eleven point five carries per game. Meanwhile, Sharboney handled about seventy three percent of the team's goal line work, leading to eleven point eight expected touchdowns versus four point seven for Walker. Now, of course, Price is going to compete with Emmanuel Wilson and George Hallane to start the year because Zach Sharboney is banged up, but there's already a report floating around that says that Price might not be a bell coow right away, which makes sense. He literally wasn't that in college, and I think there's a real chance that by the time he gets enough reps, we may see Sharbonay back on the field like later on in the season, which is obviously Price's biggest hurdle. In general, with running back, I care less about how insane the production profile is because a team can simply say, hey, we want you to be the workhorse a wide receiver running a route is not enough. You have to get open. You have to earn that target, making it a more talent driven position. So I keep more of an open mind with running backs. The thing is, though, with a profile like this, you should really understand that it's highly, highly volatile, and I'm not sure that the ceiling is like a top ten dynasty running back Top twenty definitely, But Price still has work to do as a pass catcher and in pass pro that could limit that fantasy upside, and if the team doesn't end up using him at the goal line, that could be a huge problem. That's why I still have him ranked below even a player like Casey Concepcione. I really want this next tier to just be Kenyan Sadik. I did have Omar Cooper in at post draft, and I'll talk about Cooper in here as well, but I do think I like Sadik almost a tier above Cooper. Sadik scored really well in the ZAP model. He had a score of ninety eight point five. That's higher than any other player from this and I've gotten a lot of questions from people who are like, why isn't Kenyan Sadik ranked a head of KC Concepcion when Sadik has the better ZAP score. It's because that's not how ZAP scores are supposed to be consumed, and it's my fault if I haven't made that clear. The ZAP scores are meant to compare within the position. A legendary performer at tight end is way different than a legendary performer at running back. At tight end, we rarely see huge, huge difference making players, largely because number one, they're not massive parts of NFL offenses and don't see as many touches as an elite running back would. But number two, we only start one of them in our fantasy squads. They're just not as important in fantasy football. But yes, according to the Zapp model, within the context of the position, Sadik is a very good prospect. He's not Brock Bauers, he's not Kyle Pitts, but he's extremely good. And I'll say what I've said before, I feel like people are recognizing his age when they talk about his production profile. His production profile could be better, sure, but he still had an eighty six percentile Brankout score, which is age and schedule adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. And if you compare his yards put run across his career, it's one point seven to two. According to PFF, It's really not that different from a lot of elite tight ends in fantasy football, and how they performed across their first three years, like Samuel Porta or Trey McBride. They just happened to play more in college. Now, I thought the landing spot was weak, but Brandon Gadula made a great point in the Sadiq profile in the Prospect Guide. Frank Reich, the Jets new offensive coordinator across ten seasons where Reich was a team's coordinator, head coach. His teams have just ranked once outside the top twenty and tight end target share, while ranking in the top five four different times. I low key don't really mind the Jets offense in twenty twenty six for fantasy purposes. That doesn't mean I'm gonna be drafting tons and tons of Sadik. I actually haven't taken him yet in post draft best Ball. But there's a world where you can still command a twenty percent target share this year in this offense. But one of the ways that happens is if Omar Cooper doesn't really hit. And unfortunately, both of those guys kind of project to occupy a similar area of the field. They're both extreme yards after the catch profiles. Cooper actually didn't score that much better than Jeremy Bernard and Denzel Boston in the ZAP model. I do think his comp of ver Shee Rice is pretty accurate when just kind of getting a quick and dirty way of thinking about him in the NFL, but Rice also found the perfect spot to really exploit that skill set, and to be honest, that model didn't really love Vershee Rice. Cooper had a fifty fifth percentile breakout score, but he did have some versatility in his production, logging ninety seven rushing yards and the pair of scorers on the ground. I think New York can get really creative with him and deploy him all over the field. But I'm fearful he's gonna have a cap target ceiling in year one or early on in his career, especially if the Jets run more twelve personnel. Because they have Sadik and they have Mason Taylor who they drafted last year. Ad Nai Mitchell is easily the biggest bodied wide out that they have right now. He profiles best to play the X, not that Garrett Wilson can't, So that's where Adnai Mitchell projects. So that could hurt Cooper's route share and snapchair, which makes me a little bit more pessimistic in the short term. And then you add in the fact that the ZAP model's not like totally in love, and that leads me to having Cooper more as a fringe player within this tier. It's just such a weak class that I'm gonna keep him here. And this is also where i think you can start considering Ty Simpson in Superflex, though I'm not super all in on that idea. Mostly because there's gonna be a period where you're just simply holding onto that asset. Now, this final tier to wrap up the first round of these drafts, it's just a bunch of dudes. It's pretty deep. I'm gonna rapid fire with who I've got here. I do have Mendoza in single quarterback leagues, but aside from him, I have Denzel Boston, Jeremy Bernard, Antonio Williams, Jonah Coleman, and then possibly Chris Bell or like an Eli Stowers at the end of this tier, depending on your flavor. Now, I have concerns about Denzel Boston's overall profile. It's a pretty average breakout score. He's not as good of a prospect his case. He conceptsion. He's got a career yards per out run that sits in a subset that typically does not hit at a high rate. I'll say it again, though it's a weak class. He's a bigger, bodied perimeter guy who could give you something. I've comped him all off season to Jayden Higgins, and I'm gonna stick with that comp.

00:19:17
Speaker 1: I still think it applies. He's good.

00:19:19
Speaker 2: I just don't think he's great. Jeremy Bernard seems really underrated in these early rookie drafts. I don't think he's like a massively high ceiling player, but he played alongside a lot of NFL talent throughout his collegiate journey and he still had some production.

00:19:33
Speaker 1: And Pittsburgh is a landing spot.

00:19:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, not amazing, but the Steelers have outs with both dk Metcalf and Michael Pittman next year and they needed a slock guy, so Bernard can find the field right away. There's versatility to his profile. The model really likes that he's a solid prospect. He's not spectacular, but he's solid. Antonio Williams got the perfect landing spot. His top comp in the ZAP model was Lad McConkey, so it's something that we should be p paying attention to. He was used heavily in the slot, which is a little bit scary for fantasy forecasting. But we're already hearing that the commanders think that he can play Z which would really up his range of outcomes. I said it in The Prospect Guy when it was published, but I could easily argue Williams at the top of this tier ahead of someone like Denzel Boston, Chris Bell, and Eli Stowers. They're the higher variance plays, but I also have Jonah Coleman in this tier. I talked about Coleman at length on last week's show, and as I said, I think there's a non zero chance there might even be a good chance that the Dynasty market views Coleman higher than RJ. Harvey at the end of the season. He's not elite at one thing, but he can do everything and after JK. Dobbins went down last year, it was clear the Broncos needed a running back like that, a reliable running back.

00:20:49
Speaker 1: RJ.

00:20:49
Speaker 2: Harvey just couldn't fill the void. He was bottom three and rushing yards overexpected per attemph last year. He wasn't enough of that grinder for that offense. That's what Coleman can bring to the table. So very very intrigued. And yes, having a running back selected after pick one hundred as a one to two turn pick in rookie drafts is very, very gross, but that's what this class is really all about.

00:21:11
Speaker 1: It's not deep at all.

00:21:13
Speaker 2: So go and get the guys that you like, the guys that you can back as prospects, the guys who are in the right infrastructure and for me. Jonah Coleman checks a lot of those boxes, but those are the top of my rankings. I think there's a lot of directions you can go in this year, but hopefully hearing my logic allows you to understand and appreciate where I'm coming from. If you disagree and you want to yell at me about it, feel free to hit me up for a mailbag episode. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are best searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

00:21:49
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone.

00:21:50
Speaker 2: I've got the Late Round Show coming your way on Wednesday at noon Eastern on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, and then there's another episode of Perspectives dropping on Friday. I'll talk to you then,