716: 15 Transactions for Week 13

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zachera, J J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode seven hundred and sixteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I know a lot of trade deadlines they've now passed, so a lot of you are probably thinking this fifteen transactions episode doesn't help me nearly as much as it did a week or two ago, and you're probably not wrong. It's not as effective of a list when you can't actually buy and sell players. But I say this every year. Confidence matters. Knowing the direction a player is trending. That can be helpful when you're constructing your lineups each week. So when I say a players as sell, it can also mean, hey, you may need to make up some points in your lineup because this guy's trending in the wrong direction. This guy won't maintain his current pace. And then the opposite side is true too. As we approach the end of the fantasy season, I will begin to feature more ads and drops than buys and sells on this show because that's what's more useful for you. But do be aware that buys and cells are still relevant this time of year, they just take on a new meaning. Now, before we get into the list of transactions this week, As most of you know, basketball season is going strong, which means Wednesday nights are jam packed with NBA action and FANDL and Buzzer plan on giving you a chance to win big with their daily Fantasy Basketball contest, introducing the NBA Clutch Shot presented by Buzzer and NBA DFS contest taking place every Wednesday from now until March that gives you a chance to win a share Fandel's biggest prize pool. Simply construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap, and fall along as the game's unfold. Using fandel's live scoring feature. Earn points for points scored, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, and watch as your lineup climbs the ranks. The higher up the leaderboard your lineup finishes, the more cash you'll win. It's that simple. The contest is live, so visit fandle dot com Slash League slash NBA hyphen Maine, hyphen Marquee, hyphen one and submit your lineups. Now, that's fandle dot Com Slash League slash, MBA Dash, Maine Dash, Marquee Dash, one hold DJ Moore. So after three straight games a fewer than seven PPR points, DJ Moore had a big game. He had four catches in one hundred and three yards and a touchdown against the Broncos on Sunday. And that performance happened to come with a new quarterback under center, Sam Darnold. Now, I will say this, it's likely the connection between Donald and Moore is better than more in any other quarterback on that roster, but we can't expect more to account for sixty three percent of his team's receiving yards each and every week. And what makes it even worse for DJ Moore is that the Panthers still have their buy So that's not great. But with that being said, I do think he's a hold instead of a sell. I don't think you necessarily have to sell high off this performance because when looking at j justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, the Panthers of the sect and most favorable schedule during weeks fifteen through seventeen the Fantasy playoffs, they get the Steelers, Lions, and Buccaneers, who all rank as top ten favorable matchups against wide receivers. We know DJ Moore is a talented wide receiver. It's very possible that he is productive during the fantasy playoffs. Sell Latavius Murray. So this is courtesy in my friend field Yates over at ESPN. He had tweeted that the Broncos are currently averaging the lowest points per game output since the two thousand Cleveland Browns. We know that the Broncos offense is pitifull, and that's impacting every single player in that offense. Cortland Sutton has consistently been seeing twenty five percent target s hairs, but he doesn't have that much of a ceiling because he can't find the end zone. And you can make that exact same argument for someone like Latavius Murray. But to me, there's even more to Murray's story. In Week twelve was the first game without Melvin Gordon, Murray saw really good usage. He had eighty seven percent in Denver's running back rushes. Now he only saw one target for a three percent target share, but he ran twenty five routes that was significantly more than Marlon Max three. The issue that I have with Murray, aside from the offense. Aside from the situation is that Mike Boone could return this week. Earlier in the season, when Boone was healthy, he was handling pass catching work, and given the Broncos struggles, that's not a horrible role because they're going to often be in negative game scripts. So this recommendation is basically saying that Latavius Murray might not keep up this workload. It's possible it continues, but I think if Mike Boone is healthy, he's going to dig into that a lot, especially the receiving side. Add Zonovn Knight. So James Robinson was a surprise inactive for the Jets in Week twelve, and that led to a backfield trio of Michael Carter, Ty Johnson and Bam Knight Zonovan Knight. Carter then hurt his ankle in that game against Chicago. Knight ended up playing forty nine percent of New York's offensive snow that doubled Ty Johnson snapcount. Knight had a fifty six percent running back rush share, and he had a really good ten point seven percent target share. He's not a bad receiver. Now at the time of this recording, I don't know how long Michael Carter's gonna be sidelined, but Knight is intriguing. You should be adding him this week, especially because the Jets have one of the most favorable schedules down the stretch for running backs. By Derrick Henry, Derrick Henry might win some fantasy leagues this year. I know that's super shocking to hear, but I'm bringing up Henry because he's only had one Derrick Henry type game over his last three. He scored just eight point seven PPER points back in Week ten against Denver. He then had a monster performance against the Packers, and in this past week he didn't hit fifteen PPR points. I'm sitting here on this show right now telling you to not even remotely panic. According to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers, Tennessee has the third best fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. They get the Charge and the Texans in weeks fifteen and sixteen. Those are two top five matchups, and then they get Dallas in week seventeen. The only thing stopping Derrick Henry more than likely is an injury, and you can say that exact same thing for any running back. Sell Brian Robinson. Atlanta's now allowed an RB one performance in each of their last six games. That includes two games at Deontay Foreman and now one to Brian Robinson. They're a top ten matchup in adjustin fantasy points allowed to running backs, and they've gotten worse and worse of the year's gone on. But I will say Robinson had good peripherals against those Falcons on Sunday. After Antonio Gibson hit his highest snapshare of the season in Week eleven, Robinson leaped frogged him. In Week twelve. He played six more snaps, and Robinson also finished the day with his highest target share of the season at thirteen point six percent. So everything look good on paper for Brian Robinson in Week twelve. But the problem is it's Atlanta, and given the evidence that we have, this does not seem all that sustainable. Robinson's failed to see a target in five of eight games this year, and Washington only has one plus matchup through the end of the fantasy season and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, and they also still have their buy that makes Robinson even less attractive. I think we should still be prioritizing Antonio Gibson over Brian Robinson rest of season at Isaiah McKenzie. It's been a really weird year for Isaiah McKenzie. At one point this season, we thought the Khalil Shakiro might be taking that slot role in Buffalo, but he's bounced back. On Thanksgiving, he was really, really good. He scored twenty two point three PPR points against the Lions. And it wasn't just that fantasy total that looked good. He had a twenty five point six percent target share when his previous season high was eight percentage points lower, and he also played a snapshare of seventy three percent. That was his highest of the twenty twenty two season. So adding Isaiah McKenzie this week makes plenty of sense. Sell James Connor. So I had Connor as a bye on this fifteen Transaction show just a few weeks ago, and since then he's had two top five performances in three games. It's nice to see that I don't get everything wrong, but I'm prefacing with that because it's important that you know that I'm not sitting on the show today saying that Connor played really well in Week twelve. Therefore you have to just sell him. Clearly. I'm into James Connor. And his workload. I don't know how you can't be. During his three game stretch, He's handled roughly eighty seven percent of Arizona's running back rushes. He's had a target share per game above ten percent. This is about expectations moving forward, and let's be honest. It's hard to find running backs who are seeing the usage that James Connor is seeing. But it's also tough to find running backs with a harder schedule than James Connor has. Moving forward, Connor has one plus matchup through the end of the fantasy season, and it comes in Week seventeen. The Cardinals have a bye this week that's not good for Connor's overall value. And then they get New England, a team that ranks is the toughest match up against running backs and the justin fantasy points allowed. And then it's Denver and Tampa Bay. Those are two bottom five matchups Connor can get by on volume, but this has a chance to be a rough month before a cakewalk matchup in the Fantasy Championship against Atlanta ad Zay Jones. So I was just patting myself on the back for saying to buy James Connor before he blew up and did really well over that three game stretch. I'm gonna do the opposite with Jay Jones. I've talked about Zay Jones so many times this year on my Sleeper Show, but I didn't talk about him last week, and that's a big l I should have been on him because last week, in Week twelve, he was amazing. He had a thirty seven point eight percent target share in that game against Baltimore. He's now had back to back games with a twenty five percent share, and he's up to a twenty one point three percent target share across the entire season. It's why I've been bringing him up so much on that Sleeper Show, because his peripherals have actually been really good all year long. And then this week the Jags get the Lions and what could be a shootout. The early over under a courting of Fandals sportsbook is fifty one and a half points, so at the very least, Zay Jones could definitely serve as a spot start for your fantasy team this week. But I do want to say one thing. Jacksonville has a pretty brutal wide receiver schedule. In the fantasy playoffs. They get the Cowboys, Jets, and Texans. Those are three rough matchups and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Their next two games are against Detroit and Tennessee. He should be fine there, but temper expectations as you get to the most important part of your fantasy season. Add Jamichael Hasty and Darryl Henderson. So the Jags claimed Darryl Henderson this past week, but he was a healthy scratch in Week twelve. He wasn't ready to suit up after just joining the team, and of course the game that Jacksonville played after getting Henderson, Travesytn gets injured. He left Sunday's contest early with a foot injury. Now I know what a lot of you guys are thinking, it's not a serious injury, and it's not. And he was evidently cleared to play against Baltimore, but the Jags were just cautious with it, which makes total sense. But we know how this goes sometimes. If you remember just a couple of weeks ago, with Leonard Fournette, I talked about this very same thing. There was a report from Adam Schefter saying that Fournette would be fine after their bye week, and he was not fine. Rashad White this past week was the bell cow in that offense without Leonard Fournette. In Travis Etn's absence, this past week, Jamichael Hasty really stepped up. He saw seventy one percent of Jacksonville's running back rushes and he played the vast majority of their offensive snaps, and he also had a thirteen and a half percent target chair. Now, last week, I would have said that Henderson was the clear cut handcuff to Travis ETN after they got him. But after this performance, I think it seems reasonable to think that Hasty would be sort of the one A in that backfield. If Travis Etn misses any time at the very least, Hasty would be the primary pass catcher. But I do think that Henderson can be added to. It's just that if you're only looking for week thirteen and not beyond, I think Hasty is the guy that I would prefer over Henderson sell Adam Thlen, So I don't think Adam Thelen's big Thanksgiving outing is a sign of what's to come. Last Thursday, he scored twenty one PPR points and he had a twenty seven percent target chair. Those were both season highs, and this comes with TJ. Howkinson being active for the Vikings. Since Hockinson arrived, things have not been that good for Adam Thlen. During Thlan's three games prior to Week twelve, he averaged a target share per game of just fourteen percent. Before t J. Hawkinson entered the picture, that number was twenty one percent. Until Thanksgiving, he had failed to reach double digit PPR points in every single game with Hockinson by his side, and Minnesota only has one plus matchup for wide receivers by adjusted Fantasy points allowed through the end of the year. So I would be very surprised if Adam Thlen is all of a sudden a reliable fantasy asset for you ad Mike White. So I highly doubt that Mike White is a no out starter for your fantasy team from here on out. But there is some good to his profile. He's now finished as a high end QB one and two of his four NFL starts. He has a really good supporting cast, and while his Week twelve matchup against Chicago was a really really good one, Chicago's defense is playing like hot garbage. We can't ignore the fact that the Jets get the Vikings, Bills, Lions Jags and Seahawks through the end of the fantasy season. Only the Bills among that group is a tough opponent to quarterbacks and adjustin fantasy points allowed. Not all leagues have really good quarterback streamers just sitting on the waiver wire. So you can look at Mike White, add Tyler Conklin, and with Mike White under center, we can feel a little bit more optimistic about the pass catchers on that team. A lot of people are gonna talk up Elijah more and maybe Corey Davis too. I'm interested in Tyler Conklin. He ran just one fewer route than Davis this past week in a positive game script. There's nothing wrong with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore. I'm just making note of Nklin, who's sort of flying under the radar. He's averaged a target share per game of almost eighteen percent over his last five. He hasn't been that productive, but the peripherals are at least there. He's a decent ad though overall, because he had good usages past week. The quarterback changes there and the schedule is great. In fact, New York has the best tight end schedule through week seventeen. When looking at justin fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Tight End is a huge issue for fantasy teams across fantasy football, so taking a chance on Tyler Conklin makes some sense ad ty Davis Price. So the forty nine ers backfield is kind of a mess right now. It was announced on money that Elijah Mitchell sprained his MCL again. He's gonna miss six to eight weeks once again. And then all the while Christian McCaffrey he's having knee irritation that's being managed day to day. That could explain a slightly lower backfield share in Week twelve. Now on Sunday, Jordan Mason was the other running back who was active for San Francisco. He got a little bit run, but he was active more than likely because he's a special teamer. He's playing over ty Davis Price as a result of that, but he did look good against New Orleans. Mason finished the day with an eighty percent success rate. That's really good. So the question is where do we go from here? What's gonna happen? And the answer is no one really knows, but let's at least be logical here. I would prioritize ty Davis Price off the wire. We saw him play ahead of Mason back in Week two when Mitchell was out and both of those running backs were active. That's when Jeff Wilson was still on the team. Davis Price was then injured and that derailed any momentum that he was sort of building. But this could honestly go in a lot of directions. It's Kyle Shanahan after all. Tevin Coleman's even an option off the practice squad. I'm just gonna go with the player who has the most intriguing profile, and he's one who would hypothetically compliment Christian McCaffrey really well given his size, speed combo. Add the Seattle Seahawks defense. The Seahawks look pretty pathetic in Week twelve, but the good news is that they face the Rams and the Panthers over their next two games. Those are two top ten matchups for fantasy defenses. But I get it you might not want to go Seattle's way. They did not look good this past week. If you'd rather play it week by week, you could get a defense like Cleveland who gets Houston this week, or the Giants who get the Commanders. It's totally reasonable to go that route. I just know that fantasy managers like to look ahead, and Seattle has a nice two week schedule upcoming. You just have to hope that they show up more than they did in Week twelve. By the Kansas City Chiefs defense, you could also go out and trade for a defense too, if your trade deadline has not passed, and if you're thinking about doing something like that, Kansas City makes some sense right now. Now. The first thing to note is that Kansas City gets Cincinnati this week. There's a chance that throughout your leagues they get dropped because people won't want to play them against Cincinnati, So watch out for that. If Kansas City gets dropped, you're gonna want to scoop them up. They finish as a top twelve defense and weekly scoring in three straight games and four of their last five, and their schedule after Cincinnati is unbelievable. After Week thirteen, they have matchup against the Broncos, who are the fifth best matchup for defenses and adjustin fantasy points allowed, the Texans, who are the third best, the Seahawks, who are the fourteenth best, and then the Broncos once again, and that game against Seattle that I just mentioned that's being played in Kansas City, so they'll probably be a top ten option that week. You're gonna want to be a week ahead with this one, because let's say that someone drops Kansas City this week, and then next week, everyone's going to look at which a defense to add off the wire, and they're gonna see the Chiefs playing the Broncos. That means that someone's going to prioritize them, probably without even realizing how good their schedule is from here on out. So this is the week to get the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Some of you might remember that I used to feature a sixteenth transaction on this show each week, and I dropped that feature. You're here in twenty twenty two. Well after doing my work on Monday for Tuesday's show, the fifteen transaction show, news broke that Melvin Gordon was signing with the Chiefs, and instead of removing one of the transactions, I figured it would be more beneficial to just make us sixteenth one, and it's to add Melvin Gordon. We probably shouldn't expect Gordon to just become the team's lead back outright, but it's at least in the range of outcomes here rookie Isaiah Pachecko has been very solid, especially when you consider that he was a seventh round selection in the NFL draft. He has a success rate according to number fires Expected Points Model above forty five percent. That's ten percentage points higher than teammate Jeric McKinnon, and it's also ten percentage points higher than Melvin Gordon. But pa Checko has not been a pass catcher. That's limited him. He's seen just one target over his last three games, and those are three games where he started to capture a larger backfield chair that could be Melvin Gordon's in within this offense, and that's a little bit scary for Isaiah Pachecko. Chances are we're still staring at a committee in Kansas City, I think, but Checko's still going to see the most early down work, and considering Gordon's fumbling issues, it would be somewhat surprising if Gordon saw goal line work. But in fantasy football, you have to be open minded. Fantasy football forecasting is not about singling out one projection and just going with it and just running with that projection. It's about understanding the range of outcomes and if Kansas City wants a veteran running back like Melvin Gordon running the show. They can make it happen. They can throw them on the field. It's as simple as that. So I don't think this is going to completely derail Isaiah Pacheco, but we should be open minded to the fact that it could. If Kansas City wants that to happen, they're gonna make that happen. Ad Jalen Warren. So for the first time in fifteen transactions history, we've got a seventeenth transaction and it's because there's madness going on across the league. In Monday Night's game against the Colts, Naji Harris was ruled out in the early parts of the third quarter with an abdominal injury. The problem is that backup Jalen Warren was inactive for that game. He's had a hamstring issue, so unfortunately we weren't able to see Jalen Warren as a bell cow in the Steelers offense. Now, Mike Tomlin did say that Warren's hamstring injury was not significant, so there's some hope for Week thirteen if Naji Harris isn't able to go. But at the time of this recording, I have no idea who's in or who's out. What I do know is the Steelers get the Falcons this week. Whoever's in could have a nice fantasy outing. That's why Jalen Warren needs to be added. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You don't fret to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out Late Round dot com. Join the Patreon to get access to rest of the seas and rankings, weekly rankings and tiers, and an awesome discord community. I can't even explain how awesome the discord is for real, especially on game days. You get access to that discord when you're part of the Insider tier over on Patreon. So check it all out Lateround dot com. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow