AvTalk Epiosde 176: The 787 returns

AVT 176 Transcript
EPISODE 176
[00:00:08] IP: Hello, and welcome to episode 176 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik. Here, as
always with –
[00:00:17] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Hello. Ian, how's it going?
[00:00:19] IP: It's going well, Jason. How are you, sir?
[00:00:22] JR: Good, good.
[00:00:24] IP: A much quieter week all around, yes.
[00:00:27] JR: But things along the way, but pretty quiet.
[00:00:30] IP: Yeah. Not a whole lot going on.
[00:00:32] JR: No surprises. Let's go with that.
[00:00:34] IP: Yes, no surprises. But what is happening is fairly big news. Things have quieted
down since the excitement of last week, thankfully. but it was a good and busy week. And then
this week, today, and it happened before we recorded. We don't even have to talk about it
assuming that it's going to happen. We can talk about it because it actually did already happen.
[00:00:58] JR: When it was scheduled to happen even.
[00:01:00] IP: That's amazing. Boeing has resumed 787 deliveries. Last week we talked about
–
[00:01:07] JR: Hurrah!
[00:01:08] IP: I know. This is huge news. This is great news. This is fantastic news.
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AVT 176 Transcript
[00:01:13] JR: It's good news for everybody.
[00:01:14] IP: Unmitigated good news. And that is a kind that we rarely get.
[00:01:20] JR: Yeah.
[00:01:22] IP: Last week, we talked about speculation that the FAA was very close to approving
Boeing's rework plan for the 787s that had suffered some manufacturing defects and quality
issues. The Acting Director of the FAA was headed down to South Carolina to what we assumed
would be a formal sign-off on that program. As it turns out, all of those assumptions were
actually correct. And, today, Boeing resumed deliveries of its 787 line. The first one to go home
with any airline, Jason, what was it?
[00:02:01] JR: The last delivery of any 787 was June 16th, 2021. And that was TCLLP to Turkish
Airlines. A bit of a caveat there. I know we've talked about this earlier, you and I. That was
actually an earlier frame when that was rolled out all the way back in 2020. That ended up being
delivered just after the point where they had halted deliveries. But this aircraft specifically did not
need that rework. But before that one, it was a month prior, on May 3rd, 2021, to Uzbekistan
Airways. It has been – If you go since the last delivery of any aircraft to anyone, it was that
Turkish Airlines aircraft exactly 420 days ago.
[00:02:46] IP: So, 420 days later, today, on the 10th of August, Wednesday, the 10th of August,
a Boeing 787 departed Charleston for – This one's being delivered. Flown to Victorville for a
little bit of additional rework for which airline, Jason?
[00:03:03] JR: American Airlines.
[00:03:05] IP: Congratulations. You are correct. You win the prize.
[00:03:08] JR: Congratulations. Thank you. What's the prize? Nothing. We’re not giving away a
prize.
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[00:03:10] IP: I don't know. We didn't we didn't talk about whatever the prize was last week. But,
Jason –
[00:03:14] JR: We’ll talk about that off air.
[00:03:17] IP: Jason, last week, proposed that it would be American Airlines. I, attempting to be
different, said it was Lufthansa. But expected fully that it would be in the American –
[00:03:25] JR: Both were very good guesses. Because both were ready to go. Being advertised
by the airline. They're painted. Everything was good to go. It just felt right for American to get it
first, because they have been saying for so long, “We're going to take a plane any day now. Any
day now. Next week. Next week. Next month.” Then, finally, here we go. But the plane is off to
Victorville.
Now, you might be wondering why in the world would a brand-new airplane delivered to
American today be off to the place where planes go to either die or to sit for a very extended
time? And, well, they have some more things to install on the aircraft that Boeing cannot or will
not do, like Wi-Fi installation, since this particular system chosen by American is not one
installable by Boeing at the factory. They also have to do things like put up placards and
equipment and other things like that. This comes from XJohnNYC on Twitter who seems to
know everything ever about American before anyone that American even knows about it. So,
good for him. But as expected, this aircraft needs a little more additional work. And then it will be
in service, American says, in the coming weeks.
[00:04:29] IP: So, there you go. November 880BJ is the registration for those looking to follow.
And it's in the air right now. By the time you listen to the podcast, I hope that it has landed.
[00:04:41] JR: Yeah, that would be a very long flight, if not – This was Americans 47th 787. A
good number for them. They also, at American, revealed the plans for their future deliveries.
They're going to take eight total I believe. Either eight more or eight in total in 2022. I'm not clear
on that. Four more next year. 12 In 2024. Nine and 25. Four and 26. And five more 2027. And
beyond, of course, all of those numbers are subject to change. And I'm sure they will change.
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But they have quite a number of 78s left on order to be delivered. And I'm sure they want all of
them now if they can.
[00:05:19] IP: Yeah, yeah. At least as many as they can get. As of the end of last quarter,
Boeing had 120 787s in inventory ready to start going out the door. Those will hopefully be
moving at a quick pace. Like we mentioned, Lufthansa, their first, which was not the first
purpose built 787 for Lufthansa, like we talked about last time. It was destined for another
airline. Not taken up. And will now be moving over to Lufthansa. That one's pretty much ready to
go. There are a few for United that are pretty much ready to go as well. And a few other airlines
are keen to take delivery. Hawaiian Airlines this week announced that they'll take their first at the
beginning of 2023. Yeah, I don't think they announced the specific name. But airlines are getting
ready.
[00:06:10] JR: Yeah. It’s going to be interesting to see what pace Boeing is able to actually
deliver these aircraft. Because if I recall correctly, the FAA is still signing off on every one of
these aircraft individually.
[00:06:20] IP: That's a very important point. Yeah.
[00:06:21] JR: It's not like Boeing could say, “Okay, we're good to go.” And they can't just fly a
hundred plus aircraft out of Charleston tomorrow. All of these have to be hand-signed by the
FAA before they go anywhere. We don't really know what that process looks like, or how long it'll
take. I can't imagine it will add all that much delay. But it's going to add something. We will have
to just wait and see to see how quickly Boeing can get these aircraft out the door.
[00:06:47] IP: Jason, you make a very good point there, that the FAA – The FAA, for once,
right? No. That's not true. Ouch. You make good points very often.
[00:06:58] JR: At least once an episode.
[00:06:58] IP: At least once that episode. Yeah, the FAA is certificating all of these aircraft
individually. FAA inspectors are going through. Whereas previous, Boeing had FAA authority to
have – We've talked about this many, many times in the context of the MAX and the 787, the
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organization designated authority, which allowed Boeing employees who were designated by
the FAA to certificate these particular aircraft. That is no longer the case. The FAA inspectors
are doing it themselves. So, as Jason mentioned, that will take up some time. Well, hopefully
not too much time. But also, hopefully Boeing's plan was robust enough that things become
much more routine, and delivery start rolling rather quickly.
[00:07:41] JR: Yeah, we also have no idea when that changes. The FAA can't be signing off
individually on these aircraft forever. At some point, I assume they will have to transition this
work back to Boeing. But when is anyone's guess?
[00:07:54] IP: I don't know if they have to. They very well could.
[00:07:57] JR: I think like they would. But is this really tenable to do this forever? For every new
aircraft, you really need an FAA inspector on the ground to do it? But I don't know. Maybe that's
just the name of the game now that Boeing has lost its privilege to do this both with the MAX
and the 787. Maybe this is just the way it is now.
[00:08:19] IP: Just the way it is. Let's kind of go back in time a little bit, but end up in the
present. When Russia invaded Ukraine and the global aerospace system that supports Russian
civil aviation withdrew, and Russia kept a massive number of leased aircraft and lost access to
Boeing and Airbus spare parts, services, maintenance facilities, things like that.
[00:08:54] JR: Software updates.
[00:08:54] IP: Software updates. We talked about what would happen when aircraft – Basically
when they ran out of their existing stock of spare parts. And this week, the answer that we
posited then became true. And Russian airlines have started stripping planes for parts. This is
not unexpected. This is not great.
[00:09:17] JR: Not terribly surprising.
[00:09:20] IP: But still not great.
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[00:09:21] JR: No. No. And especially since some of them, some of these aircraft being parted
out, it's not like they're taking a 13, 15, 20-year-old A320 and parting it out for parts. No. They're
taking A350s that were delivered at the wire and dismantling those aircraft to keep other A350s
in service. You hate to see that, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Not that
anyone didn't see this coming. But it's a damn shame to see a brand-new aircraft less than a
year old being picked apart for pieces because they can't get those pieces any other means.
[00:09:57] IP: Yeah, it's not a great situation. And certainly, that doesn't inspire confidence
anywhere beyond the very near term. And I wouldn't say it inspires confidence at all. But just, it
will only get worse from here is I guess what I'm trying to say.
[00:10:16] JR: There's only a degree to which you can do this with. But I know we've talked
about this before. But with modern aircraft, you can take an engine and put it on a new engine
or a different aircraft. Or you can do lots of things. But when it comes down to it, at some point,
that computers are going to need software updates, or parts are going to need to be encoded,
or whatever, and they're just not going to be able to do that. It's going to be very, very interesting
to see how they're able to keep a lot of these new generation computerized aircraft functioning.
Forget about flying. Just functioning and powering on.
[00:10:48] IP: This is where the ramp up of the Super Jet comes in. The rebuilding of the
prowess of the 204. I mean, these are high quality aircraft that will be mass produced for years
to come. Right, Jason?
[00:11:02] JR: Yeah, yeah. I definitely don't think of aircraft being cannibalized for spare parts
when I think of the Super Jet. Because that definitely didn't happen to pretty much every airline
that operated those. No. Poor Interjet.
[00:11:16] IP: On the bright side, Russian Airlines already have experience cannibalizing these
parts because they have the Super Jet in their fleet.
[00:11:25] JR: Yeah, Aeroflot did. But I believe they were actually in the middle of transferring
those Super Jets over to one of its LCC subsidiaries. But I'm sure that they will want those back
now.
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[00:11:35] IP: At some point, for sure. Let's stay with Russia and go to some interesting news
coming out of Abu Dhabi this week. Wizz Air Abu Dhabi, which is the Wizz Air branded airline,
owned 51% by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and based in Abu Dhabi. They announced
that they will be returning to Russia flying from Abu Dhabi to Moscow beginning again in
October.
The move puts them in line with existing Middle East airlines, airlines that are also based in the
United Arab Emirates. Emirates and Etihad continuing to fly. Neighboring Qatar continuing to fly.
And low-cost carrier – Or lower cost carrier, I guess, Flydubai as well. So that doesn't put them
out of line with other airlines based in the area.
The counter argument to that is it's not a great look for an ostensibly Hungarian airline, while the
airline is legally based in Abu Dhabi. Wizz Air is a Hungarian airline. And so, it doesn't reflect
well on them that they'll be restarting flights to Russia. It also could possibly complicate the
return of the four Wizz airplanes that are currently stuck in Ukraine that were on the ground.
Three in Kiev and one in [inaudible 00:13:00] at the start of the war.
I'm not sure how that plays into things. I'm not sure if they've already written off those aircraft
and saying, “We're done with them,” in any case. But an interesting decision. One, based on
economics, them saying, “We're losing out on money because people wish to fly between
Russia and Abu Dhabi.” And on the other hand, Wizz Air being a Hungarian airline, and the
optics of that not looking so great, even if they are legally allowed to do this.
[00:13:35] JR: Yeah, this is a real sticky situation here. So Wizz Air holdings only owns 49% of
the airlines. They don't have majority holding here. It's just weird for this to be happening. I get
why they're doing it. But as you said, Ian, since they have other aircraft stranded because of the
Russian actions in Ukraine, the optics of this are just outright terrible.
[00:14:01] IP: It's an interesting decision, one that I don't think is totally unexpected. But I think
the pushback is something – Based on the statement they put out, it sounds like they weren't
expecting it. I think that's something to look forward to moving forward to see how they respond,
if they do respond at all.
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Jason, you had a surprising conversation with the CEO of airBaltic this week following – They
published their July numbers at the beginning of the week, and mentioned the fact that six of
their aircraft are currently out of service, because they are missing engines. And so, your
question to see Martin Gauss was what?
[00:14:47] JR: Why, basically. Why do you have so many aircrafts? I believe my exact quote
was actually, “Is your airline unable to source the necessary parts for those six aircraft? Or
what's the bottle Getting those engines running?” And for those of you who do not follow him on
Twitter, he is exceptionally open and responds to people on Twitter. And he said Pratt and
Whitney has a shortage of engines coming out of their MRO. They claim supply chain issues.
It was just refreshing to get like an actual answer. A straight answer from a high-level executive
in an airline said, “Here's the problem. Here's why we're having the problem. That's it.” It's just
unfortunate for airBaltic, because they're in this very, very weird situation where due to the
Russian invasion of Ukraine, they have limited demand for a part of their network. So, they have
actually wet leased out a good chunk of their fleet to Finnair and I think SAS. And then they're
kind of all over the place.
[00:15:48] IP: And Eurowings Discover.
[00:15:51] JR: And Eurowings Discover, of course. Who could forget Eurowings Discover? But
at the same time, they've now overextended their fleet, and they themselves have to wet lease
other aircraft to operate their own schedule. I think they have – In their schedule currently, they
have A320s from Cyprus Airways and Carpatair, and Fokker 100 from Carpetair. So, they can't
really use a sixth aircraft back. But now we know why. It's Pratt and Whitney can't get parts to
get its own engines out of, I guess, overhaul to get back to airlines to put, in this case, six
aircraft back in service.
[00:16:30] IP: Yeah. It'll be really interesting to see how quickly. And we should mention that this
issue is not just affecting airBaltic. This is an A220-wide, fleet-wide issue. And it's also affecting
some of Delta's A220s. We should also know that airBaltic is going to be supplying Swiss with
capacity as well to supplant their A220 fleet. I mean –
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[00:16:55] JR: Is airBaltic going to wet lease aircraft to then just wet lease back out to another
airline at this point? Is it going to be – What did you say? It was KLM or Air France just now?
[00:17:06] IP: Swiss. Swiss. Yeah.
[00:17:06] JR: You said it was Swiss. Is it going to be Swiss, operated by airBaltic, operated by
like Carpatair F100? Like, something's got to give it this point. But what makes it so bad is that
airBaltic is an exclusive A220 operator. It does not operate any other aircraft. And they only have
total 36 aircraft. So, six aircraft without engines, that's actually a fairly large chunk of its fleet.
[00:17:32] IP: Kind of sticking with this issue of capacity and finding capacity where you can
also operate – So, we talked about airBaltic operating for Eurowings Discover. We talked about
airBaltic operating for Finnair. But then you also have Finnair operating for Eurowings Discover.
And so, you've got this kind of loop happening where airlines are snatching aircraft wherever
they can.
So theoretically, you could book a Eurowings Discover itinerary and fly airBaltic on an A220, and
Finnair on an A350, which is a far superior product to anything Eurowings Discover can offer. I
mean, I guess surprise and delight is a word for it.
[00:18:17] JR: Eurowings has always been a hodgepodge of just like whatever aircraft they can
get a hold of. But this is – Yeah, you could actually book like a connecting flight through – Where
do they operate at? A Frankfurt or Munich? And then go all the way to like Miami on Eurowings
Discover and return and never touch a Eurowings Discover printed aircraft.
[00:18:34] IP: Yeah. And then kind of sticking with this same thing, you have BA’s short haul
fleet, or BA’s mid-haul kind of European-wide fleet. You've got Finnair operating for BA. You've
got Iberia operating for BA. And that's not just an aircraft issue. That issue relates to staffing
issues as well. But one of the things is BA still bringing a big chunk of the short haul fleet back
online.
[00:19:02] JR: Yeah, things are weird right now.
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[00:19:04] IP: And those aircraft are sitting out because you don't necessarily have staff. And
it's not just the staff to operate the aircraft. It's the staff to make sure that the aircraft or
operational. So, getting those checked out and off the ground for the first time. And that's not
just a BA issue. I mean, that's industrywide at this point.
[00:19:23] JR: No, it seems to be more of a European issue right now. This is not an issue we
have in the US with any airline. Though, typically, it is exceedingly rare to end up on a US-based
airline wet leasing an aircraft from anyone else. It just doesn't really happen. Maybe it might
happen if you fly Sun Country or something like that. They've been known to do it in the past
with like Xtra Airways. But you will probably never ever, ever end up booking United, or
American, or Delta and ending up on a wet leased aircraft from someone. That just doesn't
happen here.
[00:19:57] IP: Yeah, it's a completely different model. So, yeah, that's a fair point.
Jason, we've not done a huge amount of in-depth discussion of eVTOL on a regular basis,
mostly because we've been waiting for money to change hands in certain circumstances.
[00:20:19] JR: I don’t know if that's the only reason we have –
[00:20:21] IP: It’s not the only reason. But it's certainly one of the big reasons. Because
marketing is one thing. And marketing is good. Marketing helps propel products. That's certainly
all well and good. But, now, money has changed hands. Archer received a $10 million
prepayment from United Airlines. United had previously ordered 100 eVTOL from Archer. This
week, they received a $10 million predelivery payment. And according to this release, it is
believed to be one of the first of the kind in the industry. So, at least somebody's making some
revenue. They say that the payment represents a watershed moment for the eVTOL industry.
I'm not sure that's true. But that's what they're saying. Validating confidence in the
commercialization of eVTOL aircraft and Archer’s leadership.
[00:21:11] JR: All right.
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[00:21:12] IP: Okay.
[00:21:13] JR: 10 million isn't exactly a huge amount of money. It's not chump change. United
clearly sees that this aircraft is something that they want and something that maybe they want to
throw a little money at to get it along the way. I believe they also picked a name for the aircraft
now. We just don't have to call it the Archer eVTOL. What is it called? The midnight?
[00:21:38] IP: I believe that that is what it is called. They don't mention that in the release at all.
[00:21:43] JR: They don’t. No. They mentioned that separately. Unless it's a different aircraft. I
don't know. One of them is called the Maker. One of them is called the Midnight. I'm not even
sure if they're different aircraft. I'm pretty sure it's the Midnight now?
[00:21:58] IP: What happened to boring numerical names for aircraft?
[00:22:02] JR: I don't know. But it's better than – I don't know. At least we don't have Sony
naming any aircraft, because then it would be like 15 alphanumeric digits with a hyphen in the
middle. But this is good. I'm not convinced this is necessarily the future, because this is not
replacing any aircraft except maybe helicopter flights to somewhere. I don't know. I still don't
truly know what you're doing with like a two-seat aircraft with limited range. But clearly, someone
at United sees a future for this. Or they see at least $10 million worth of future in it.
[00:22:38] IP: $10 million worth of future so far. Maybe some more future soon. Yeah, I think it's
a step. It's a big step. $10 million is a big step. It's not a huge step. But it's a big step. And I
thought it was worth bringing up, because money is in fact changing hands. It's not just another
letter of intent to understand a memorandum to possibly consider a purchase order. This was
actual cash changing hands.
[00:23:06] JR: And at some point, I will find out what model United has on order, and what the
Midnight is, and what the Maker is. I'm not sure. This space is still very confusing to me.
[00:23:19] IP: But it's one that we better familiarize ourselves with. So, on we go. Let's talk
about – So last week, we had Seth Miller on the program, who runs PaxEx.aero, to talk about
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the proposed Department of Transportation, refund proposal, refund guidelines that they're
seeking comment on. That's what we talked about last week.
Then this week, he dug into some numbers about how efficient US airlines are in relation to, on
a per employee bases, how many flights are airlines operating? And, Jason, you were digging
into some of these numbers that Seth put together. And I'll let you give us the overview.
[00:24:05] JR: Yeah. As a primer for this topic, I took a look at some of the numbers that
Amsterdam put out in July actually, that they had flown 5.2 million passengers from, through or
via Schiphol in June 2022. But that was 1.3 million fewer passengers than in 2019, or on 15%
fewer flights. And it just kind of felt like, industrywide, there's this upper barrier at 85%, where it
doesn't matter what airport it is, it doesn't matter what airline it is. Nobody can operate at above
85% capacity of 2019. And if they try it, bad things happen. Airports melt down. Airlines melt
down. Everyone has a bad time. Bags get sent to Purgatory and never seen again.
Seth took a look at some of the numbers published by the DoT for US airlines in particular. And
across the board, on average, it really seems like – Well, I'll quote him here, “A review of
employment numbers and schedules suggest that airlines are up to 20% less efficient than in
2019 on a per employee basis.” And it's not something you can blame on employee shortages.
Most airlines at this point are at their 2019 staffing levels. Or in some cases, above 2019 staffing
levels. So, they are operating fewer flights with more employees, which is not a good
combination.
He goes on to say that, as of May 2022, Frontier employed 23% More people than in 2019.
Allegiant is up 29%. And Spirit is up 23%. But on a per employee basis, everything about their
schedule is actually smaller. Spirit scheduled 17.6% fewer flights, Allegiant 16.8% fewer across
the board. It's just nobody can do what they did in 2019 with the same or even a greater number
of human resources. And there's some theories on why that is true. And some of this, yes, is up
to FAA, air traffic control and weather. But that's not really the majority of it. It just seems like all
the airlines in the US, they let all the experience people who knew what they were doing leave.
Either they took buyouts. Or they retired early. Or they just left the industry to do other things
during COVID.
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And now, you've got people at the airport, in operation centers, on the aircraft that are junior.
They're brand-new. They've only been at this for two months, six months, whatever. And what
an employee that's been working at the airline for 20 years could accomplish in five minutes is
probably now taking 30 minutes, or 60 minutes. And it's just this problem that's not going to go
away with anything but time.
Junior employees need to figure out how to do things more efficiently. And at this point, it's like
that last bit of 20% of capacity is not going to come back anytime soon no matter what we do,
because it's just down to the human element.
[00:27:11] IP: I hate it when it comes down to the human element.
[00:27:14] JR: Right. Humans are the worst. But it's not an issue that's going to go away. And I
think JetBlue’s CEO on their earnings call this last week or in some interview, basically said they
are hiring more people than they need to, because they have an employee retention issue.
They'll hire 20 people to do the job that they might only need with 15 people, but they lose five
people on the way, or they lose 10 people after the first month or so. It's not only an issue of
employees these days being more junior or not having the experience. But they just can't keep
them mainly because working in the airline industry is really not easy. It's really difficult. It's not
an easy space to get acclimated to, especially when some of the greatest perks of being an
airline employee is flying for free. And with flights going out 100% full 100% of the time, that
perk doesn't exist most times. It's a hard sell to get people to not only start working in this
industry, but continue working on it and gaining that experience so we can get that last 20% of
capacity back.
[00:28:14] IP: Yeah, I think the touting of the juniority effect, as Delta’s CEO, Ed Bastian, called
it.
[00:28:22] JR: Not a good look.
[00:28:24] IP: That is also because of the labor costs have risen across the board. I mean, not
as much of a savings has been realized. Certainly, there's a savings there versus the other
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more experienced employees that were more well-compensated. But the problems that that has
seemingly created or helped to create, is that worth it?
[00:28:50] JR: Yeah, it's especially damaging for airlines like Delta who had a reputation of
unimpeachable punctuality. And they literally trademarked the term the on-time machine, a
trademark, which hilariously has actually since lapsed, that I don't believe they own anymore. I
think [inaudible 00:29:06]. It's not good for airline reputations like Delta. Like, they had their
reputation of being the on-time airline. If you booked to 7pm departure, you were probably going
to leave at 7pm and get in early. But these days, look at JFK, specifically. Even on days where
the weather is not bad, they cannot get a pm departure bank out and off the gate on time even
on days where the weather's good. And it's not because they don't – Maybe not because they
have enough employees. It's just those employees aren't able to do things as efficiently as in
the past, especially when you look at some of the systems that you have to work with in this
industry. There may be people who have worked there for 20 years that know, “Oh, I have to do
this thing in Sabre.” You press control function F8 and escape at the same time, and it is a
shortcut in Sabre, or Amadeus, or Shares, or whatever. There's a good chunk of the was just a
shortcut things that new employees, there's no one there to tell them that that thing existed.
What shortcuts, or how they can do things more efficiently or quicker than they were trained to
do a lot. A lot of shortcuts like that, it's brain drain in a lot of industries, especially the travel
industry. It’s just gone out with the buyouts that they should not have really offered to the degree
that they did offer them in 2020 that they now regret. It's going to take years to get the efficiency
that we had in 2020 back.
[00:30:35] IP: Jason, it pains me to say this, but I think you're right. I think you're right. That's
twice in an episode. That’s twice in an episode.
[00:30:44] JR: I’ve had a good point [inaudible 00:30:44] in a single episode. Well, that’s it for
episode 176. I think I'm going to walk out the door now. Bye.
[00:30:52] IP: You’re just going to stop now. Oh, don't go anywhere yet, Jason. Explain what
KLM is doing for the World Cup. They’d said they were going to do yesterday now that given
they're trying to rearrange the World Cup schedule. But KLM filed an interesting flight schedule.
And this is one of those things where we're hoping someone, either from KLM, from Dubai
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World Central, from Doha Airport, or anybody who has any ideas listening, and can email us at
podcast@fr24.com and say, “You know what, here's why it's happening.” Jason, please explain.
[00:31:28] JR: Yeah. KLM does not currently flight to Doha. Doha is the host city, country, thing,
for the FIFA World Cup this year. And Ian said just before that, they're proposing bumping it up
by a day. But that's an entirely different conversation for an entirely different podcast. But KLM
announced that they were going to fly to Doha for the World Cup. Great. That's a great idea.
Added capacity for an airline – A worldwide connecting airline to Doha. That's a good idea. But
what's interesting is what happens after KLM goes to Doha. No, they do not simply return to
Amsterdam. They continue on to Dubai in the middle of the night. It's like a midnight departure. I
think even later, 2:55am departure. They go to Dubai. But they don't go to Dubai International,
like DXB. Like the airport everyone knows and has probably been to. They’re flying to DWC, the
other airport that was supposed to replace DXB that currently hosts zero passenger flights per
day.
I know we had a back and forth on this earlier because I called a little used airport, and you took
exception to that. And I did the math, and it turns out there are indeed zero passenger airlines
operating the DWC right now. A number of them will wrap up for the World Cup. Qatar, Fly
Dubai specifically. And I think Condor at some point later in the year will start flying as well.
But after they land at DWC, they turn around and depart at 4:45am back to Amsterdam. And no
one can really figure out why. They haven't said why they're doing this. There're some ideas of
maybe the fuel is cheaper in Dubai. Or maybe their crew can't get hotel rooms in Doha because
of the World Cup. And there isn't exactly a ton of hotel stock to spare in a city that size during
the World Cup. So, maybe they're just shuttling over to DWC, or Al Maktoum DWC to get hotel
rooms for their crew. We don't really know why. But it's odd to see a triangle route like this.
[00:33:36] IP: Especially one that doesn't – There's not really passenger demand coming out of
Dubai World Central. There's not –
[00:33:47] JR: No. The demand is zero. No airline has been able to make it work.
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[00:33:50] IP: I'm sure they're doing it for a very simple, specific reason. We just don't know
what it is. If you know what it is. You're listening to the podcast and go, “Oh! Oh! Oh! I know.”
Please email us.
[00:34:01] JR: Somebody tell us, please.
[00:34:01] IP: It’s been eating me up all week. All week, it’s been eating me up.
[00:34:05] JR: Ian’s got no sleep.
[00:34:07] IP: I got to know. And we haven't heard back from KLM.
A couple things to close out the podcast. One, it was an incident I hadn't heard about until the
NTSB report came out this week. On the first of July, a Southwest Airlines 737-700 was flying
from Oakland to Santa Ana, John Wayne Airport, and the aircraft landed so hard it broke the
flight attendant in the rear of the aircraft's back.
[00:34:42] JR: That's not supposed to happen. Wow!
[00:34:44] IP: That is not supposed to happen. Quoting from the NTSB report, “Paramedics
evaluated her and transported to a local hospital where she was later diagnosed with a
compression fracture to her T3 vertebra.” This was the flight attendant sitting in the aft jump
seat. And she says that the plane hit the ground was such force she thought the plane had
crashed.
[00:35:09] JR: Wow. That's not great.
[00:35:12] IP: The aircraft, however, it did indeed have a hard landing. The NTSB report goes
on to list some of the factors. They did not travel to the site of the incident. However, how long
did the plane stay on the ground?
[00:35:28] JR: Well, it’s Southwest. So, 37 minutes?
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[00:35:35] IP: It appears they did at least a bit of inspecting of the aircraft, because it was
supposed to depart at 5:45 local time. PM local time. It departed at 6:55 local time PM. So, they
took about an hour delay to make sure that they had smashed the plane to pieces, I guess. But
kind of a crazy story. Given the fact that there was no damage – Apparently, no damage to the
aircraft. But the aircraft hit hard enough to have the flight attendant suffer a compression
fracture. Just a strange set of events.
[00:36:09] JR: That reminds me of something. You said how long would this aircraft be in the
ground? And remember a few weeks ago, maybe months ago, when we talked about the United
Aircraft at Pittsburgh that had to have –
[00:36:18] IP: Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
[00:36:19] JR: CVR and FDR removed. But they took like no delay at all. And we wondered,
how does that work? And we asked our friend, Sean Payne. We spoke to him on the podcast.
We reached out to him, and he replied to us and email. And I have that email up. I will
summarize here. But to answer your question, this can vary quite a bit by aircraft, as all things
do.
Let's assume you have an aircraft with the traditional CVR and FDR in the tail section. Where it
is exactly on the aircraft varies. But what's common is that the recorders are sitting on an
electronics tray in the tail of the aircraft behind some sort of maintenance panel. The tray has a
quick release system that makes pulling the recorders very fast. Some call it simply an avionics
rack, or shop tray, or a lot of things. But the tray has a set of dual female plugs with female pins
that the recorder has inset male pins. You unscrew two screws holding the recorder in the rack
and simply slide the recorder out. The chassis rack ensures that the pins are lined up correctly
when you slide a new recorder in.
Really, the biggest part – And I'm not reading word for word here at this point. The only thing
that takes time is making sure that the airline actually has a new recorder to slot into position
back on that aircraft. Otherwise, you have to ground that aircraft until you get one. So yeah,
there you go. Right from Sean Payne. Basically, it's opened the door, remove a couple of
screws, slide that thing out, slot a new one in and you're good to go.
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[00:37:42] IP: Yeah. A simple procedure to. Certainly, dependent upon having one in stock
ready to slot back in to make sure the aircraft is then able to be dispatched.
[00:37:54] JR: Funny enough, he gave us a link to an image of one of these racks that you just
slide in and out the CVR or FDR. It is currently out of stock, unfortunately. They cost $50 used.
But they're out of stock at the moment. This one is in good condition. Not bent or cracked. But
it's out of stock. So, that's too bad.
[00:38:15] IP: I'm glad you looked into that. I appreciate your dedication to the details.
[00:38:20] JR: Well, United must have bought up the last couple.
[00:38:21] IP: That explains everything. Let's close out the show with, I don't want to call it
inventive. And I don't know if it's unique. That would be an interesting question. But what is
Indigo doing now to get people off the plane quicker?
[00:38:35] JR: How many doors do typical airlines use to board and deboard the aircraft?
[00:38:40] IP: I mean, I would say one most of the time.
[00:38:42] JR: The average is probably one, right?
[00:38:45] IP: Two – Well, the average has to be more than one. Because if you’re using –
[00:38:49] JR: Well, yeah. But the average airline will typically use the 1L door. If you're on a
wide body, maybe they'll use 1L and 1L if you're at a nicely configured airport. Some airlines,
low-cost carriers in particular, will use two doors. They will use the front left door and the rear
left door of the aircraft.
Indigo, a couple of weeks ago, started using three doors. They are using 1R to get people off
the aircraft. And it's just one of those things that like if you're in the aviation industry, this will
blow your mind that they're using 1R to get people off the airplane. But then you look at it, you're
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like, “Why haven't we all been doing that?” Like, it must speed up getting people off the aircraft
by like maybe not a third, because you're still having to slot people down the aisle to get to the
door. But it's got to help quite a bit, right?
[00:39:42] IP: What they're doing is they've got – These aren't hard stands. These are not with
jet bridges. They have to have the –
[00:39:50] JR: Back and forth rampy things?
[00:39:53] IP: Back and forth rampy thingies. Yeah, that's the technical term. Basically, walking
ramps that can also accommodate system mobility devices, wheelchair, or scooter, or
something. And they've got two of those. One at 1L door, 1R door. And they have a third at the
rear left side door. And so, you get to the front and you can kind of split off. And it looks like it's
working. A fascinating idea. How much of that can be replicated elsewhere though?
[00:40:21] JR: They say, in a Reuters article from a week ago, they say it will improve
turnaround times by three to five minutes. That's nothing.
[00:40:30] IP: That's nothing. And when you're operating a tight schedule, the way Indigo is,
that's a big deal.
[00:40:35] JR: Yeah. And they will be rolling this out to 70% of their operations nationwide,
where they're able to. Their usual turnaround time is anywhere between 30 and 35 minutes.
Shaving five minutes off that is not nothing. I have never heard of an airline using three doors. If
you have heard of that, reach out to us at podcast@fr24.com.
We've seen double jet bridges before at Amsterdam when they decide to actually use those,
which doesn't seem like very often. But using three doors to get people off the aircraft. If you've
seen it before, I'd like to hear about it.
[00:41:10] IP: The other thing I would love to see is an airline implement a system where you
have people like rushing you onto the plane with like a stopwatch. And if you get on soon
enough, you get a refund, a partial refund on your ticket.
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[00:41:21] JR: That's definitely something that's going to happen.
[00:41:25] IP: You don't sound confident that it will.
[00:41:29] JR: No.
[00:41:30] IP: Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. I'll leave it at that then. This has been episode
176. If you've enjoyed the podcast, or if you haven't, and you have things to say, please, by all
means leave a rating or a review wherever you get your podcast. We always appreciate hearing
from you directly as well, podcast@fr24.com.
As we have mentioned, next week, we're going to do something a bit different. We're going to
take a break.
[00:41:57] JR: What?
[00:41:59] IP: I know. I know. We normally do a gap week at the end of the year. We're always
going to do one, I guess, the end of the middle of the year, or the beginning of the end of the
year? I'm not sure how to term it.
[00:42:12] JR: Sure.
[00:42:13] IP: But we're going to take a break. So, next week, we won't have a new episode.
We will have some of our favorite conversations from this year so far as part of an episode for
you to listen to. We hope you'll enjoy that. And we'll see you with a new episode, not next week,
but the week after next.
As always, I am Ian Petchenik. And I am here as always with –
[00:42:37] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
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