710: 10 Trends for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode seven and ten of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. The Week eleven, NFL Sunday Million is officially live on fanduels. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one point three million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool two hundred and fifty thousand dollars first place prize, all for just five dollars. Sunday's quickly approaching said to Fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restructions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the Fandel app for more details. Now let's get to these ten trends. A lot changed for the Colts this week. They had a new head coach, of course, and then they had a new quarterback too. Matt Ryan was back under center, but Jonathan Taylor also played his first game without Nihim Hines, and in that game he had a snapshare of ninety four percent. That was a season high. He ran a round on twenty five of twenty nine Indianapolis dropbacks, and he played as the primary pass catching back in that offense. Taylor moved up my rankings this past week because his usage is looking a lot better with these changes, and we should feel a little bit more optimistic about the Colts offense in general with Matt Ryan under center. The schedule's not perfect and the Colts aren't going to play the Raiders every week, but it's at least a big plus for Jonathan Taylor. The Cardinals surprisingly released Eno Benjamin on Monday, and it came after Arizona gave James Connor a ninety six percent snapshare That was by far his highest snapshare of the season, and it resulted in a running back rush share of ninety five and a half percent and a target share of about nine percent. He was a complete bellcow the Cardinals at the toughest running back schedule by justin fantasy points allowed from here on out, but with that kind of usage, Connor should still be a starter in fantasy football. They also get the Falcons in Week seventeen. For what it's worth, we saw the Steelers without Chase Claypole for the first time this past week, and predictably, it was a good thing for Pat Fryarmuth. Fryarman saw an increase in slot snapped by about ten percentage points and he ran nearly just as many routes as George Pickens and Deontay Johnson. That resulted in a twenty six point nine percent target share, one of his highest marks of the season, and that was in a rough, tight end matchup. So the arrow is absolutely pointing up for Pat Fryarmuth. Jeff Wilson's role is very, very legit in this Miami offense. It was weird that the market wasn't reacting much to his first game with Miami a couple of weeks ago, and then in his second game, his backfield share just got even better. He played twenty one more snaps than raheem mostered on Sunday, he saw his running back rush share jump by over ten ten percentage points a week over week, and his target share this past week was fifteen percent, up from ten percent the previous week. Wilson is seeing amazing usage and Miami continues to have a strong schedule moving forward, especially in the short term. I had Wilson above consensus once again this week in my rest of season rankings at RB seventeen. And by the way, you can get those rankings and tiers by becoming a patron of the late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. I didn't talk about Isaiah Pacheco in the fifteen Transactions episode yesterday because you guys know where I stand with that backfield by now. It's the same reason I didn't talk about Donovan People's jones. These guys have been highlighted in the past. I want to give you guys new transactions. But Isaiah Picchecko saw a career high fifty six and a half percent snapshare against Jacksonville on Sunday. Clyde Edwards Hilaire meanwhile played four total snaps. I talked about this on last week's Sleeper Show, but since the Chiefs started moving away from Edwards a Laire, they hadn't faced a good man for their run game. But they did on Sunday. They did in week ten and with a positive game script, Pacheco carried the ball sixteen times for eighty two yards. He had eighty nine percent of Kansas City's running back rushes so I'll continue to say it. Ad Isaiah Pacheco and Jack McKinnon can be rostered too. He's getting good usage in the passing game. Let's go from one rookie running back to another and shift to Kenneth Walker. In Week ten, Walker had a career high twenty four point two percent target shair that nearly doubled his previous high. He didn't have a great game on the ground, but his usage in a negative game script for Seattle votes very very well for his rest of season potential. Even though his seventeen rushing yards were by far a season low since becoming starter, he still did see every single rush attempt for the Seahawks, so his peripherals were off the charts in that game against Tampa Bay. Trend seven this week is about Jalen Hurts and his rushing or lack of rushing. He's been fine in fan because he's getting it done with his arm for the most part, and he's still getting some rushing production, but he's definitely running less and that doesn't give him as high as a ceiling. From weeks one through five, Hurts averaged almost fourteen rush attempts per game. Over his last four games, that numbers fall into six and a half. During that first five week stretch, Hurts was averaging twelve and a half standard Fantasy points per game with rushing alone. Over his last four that numbers just three point seven. So is this a big concern. I mean kind of, but not totally. Hurts is throwing the ball well, and there's one game in Week eight that's bringing some of these rushing numbers down a bit when he ran the ball just twice in a blowout against Pittsburgh. Remember in that game, he threw the ball exceptionally well. But I do think it's unlikely we see the same ceiling that we saw during the first five weeks of the season, at least consistently. Of course, he can still put together some monster games. He's actually still some of that I'm higher on versus the market. It was just always going to be hard to maintain what he was doing from weeks one through five. We have evidence that Atlanto will be slightly more pass heavy if they're trailing. This is good news. In Week ten, the Panthers beat the Falcons pretty convincingly, and in that game, Atlanta's pass ray, which I'm defining as pass attempts divided by total pass and rush attempts was fifty eight percent, So fifty eight percent of their pass and rush attempts were passes. That's the highest that it's been all season. It's only the second time it's been over fifty percent, meaning it was only the second time this season Atlanta has thrown the ball more than they've run it. And imagine that Drake London finishes a wide receiver two in Fantasy for the first time since Week two. Funny how that works. It's hard to be optimistic that this is going to be the way they run their offense moving forward. They've got winnable games on their schedule until basically Christmas Eve, but it's at least something. Rod deel Moore has three straight top twenty performances at the position in PPR formats, and he said a thirty percent target share in each of his last two. He may not have a crazy high ceiling in fantasy, just given how they deploy him, but he's seeing enough volume each week to the point where a ceiling can sort of be formed. There's nothing wrong with eight or nine catches for ninety yards in a PPR league, and things could get even better from a volume perspective with zach Ertz out. The last trend this week has to do with the Cleveland Browns. I brought this up before, but it hasn't changed, and to me, it's kind of wild. So the Browns have twenty four offensive touchdowns this year, only eight of those have been passing touchdowns, So they have a passing touchdown rate of thirty three percent. Thirty three percent of their touchdowns have come via passing. That's by far, and I mean by far, the lowest in the league. Based on their pass rate, that touchdown rate should be like twenty four to twenty five percentage points higher. Now, if you want to factor in personnel and such and say, but they have Nick Chubb and they have Jacoby Brissette, I understand that you could probably lower that number a little bit. But even still, they're huge regression candidates in terms of how they're scoring their touchdowns. This explains why Donovan Peoples Jones is the most receiving yards in football without a touchdown this year. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by stretching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com. Specifically, you should check out the Patreon. You can get access to my rest of season rankings and tiers, my weekly rankings and tiers, Dynasty rankings, and awesome discord community, live q and as and more. Check it out lateround dot com. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow