881: Insights From Building Projections

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris j Jake Zacher reson what's up everyone? It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode eight hundred and eighty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. I don't draft off of projections. People sometimes give me a weird look when I say that, But I don't think you should take one singular median outcome for a player, which is what a projection is, and use that as the only data point when you're drafting. There's variance to projections. That's one reason why you may hate that I talk about variants so much on the show. But it's true. We can say that a certain backup running back will only score seventy five PPR points this year, but if that backup starter gets hurt in week one, then that projection becomes meaningless. It's not to say that that's a common occurrence. It's to say that we know projections can go south, and they can go south in a hurry. Now to that point, projections don't always properly capture range of outcomes. A rookie or a second year player probably gonna have a wider range of outcomes than a player who's been in the same offense with the same team for years. There's more ambiguity with that younger player. Sometimes that's good, sometimes that's bad. But projections will show you just one final number for both a veteran and the younger player, that fantasy point total. Most systems aren't giving you a range of outcomes, and even if they are giving you a range of outcomes, there's still a lot of variance to that too. And let's be honest, there are points in your fantasy draft where you shift your focus when it comes to range of outcomes. In the early rounds, you may be looking for that median output. You may want a little safety in round fifteen, round sixteen. Why do you care about a player's floor. You should be looking at his ceiling and what he can become is make projections meaningless. Of course, they can give you an idea of where a player should be drafted, and they can also help you wrap your head around potential volume in an offense, or whether or not something truly is possible. The actual process of building projections, it's often more helpful to me than the projection itself because when building them, you're finding things out about players and teams that you might not have otherwise realized. And that's what this episode I do each year is all about. I'm here to talk about some of the interesting things that I saw and learned while building projections this year. Now, before getting started, I've got a couple of things I need to talk to you guys about. First, take a swing at pick them on Underdog during the next golf major. Underdog has the biggest offerings in the game, including full round projections in single whole stats. Get your entries in before the action starts, or wait to see how your favorite golfers are doing with in game pick them. It's all your choice. Download the Underdog Fantasy app today and sign up using code late. New customers will receive a player special plus a deposit offer upon signing up. And that brings me to the second thing I want to mention. The Late Round Draft Guide is live and ready for pre order. The Draft guide is different than the Prospect Guide. Instead of a guide focused on prospects, it's a guide focus on your season long fantasy football leagues. Yes, we're getting closer and closer to those drafts. This is year three of the guide, and I plan on making it better than ever. I'll be talking game theory, players to target players, to avoid late round dart throws, and so much more. It's an updated weekly through August, so you're always getting up to date information for your drafts. You can pre order it now over on lateround dot com for nineteen ninety nine. When it goes out on July first, you'll get an email with a download link. But I've got a special offer for you this year. If you're new to Underdog Fantasy you've never signed up, if you sign up and make a deposit with promo code Late Round, you'll not only receive a depot bonus, but you'll also get a free Late Round Draft Guide. That guide will be emailed to you when it releases on July first. So there are so many reasons to sign up on Underdog. Do it today by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot com or by downloading the app, and when you sign up, make sure you use promo code Late Round. You need that promo code and you need to make a deposit if you want a free Late Round Draft guide. Again, that's promo code Late Round. I know Bjon Robinson didn't totally come to fruition last year, but this year, my projections thinks that he's going to come to fruition. Atlanta has a whole new offense this season. The coaching staff changed and they've got Zach Robinson running the show on offense. He comes from the Sean McVeigh tree, which is one that's not nearly as conservative as what we saw with Arthur Smith in Atlanta. You've got a team that's going to go from using the least amount of eleven personnel in the league to one that's going to be closer to the top of the league. That's what we've I've seen traditionally from this coaching tree. Robinson has already said that he wants to play fast and he wants to play aggressively, which could mean more overall volume in this offense, which is great for fantasy purposes. Now, my projections take a top down approach. They start at the team level before getting to the player level. So the fact that the Falcons should score more touchdowns this year, which I think is a near lock given they only scored thirty one last year. It was one of the lowest marks in the league. But more touchdowns more plays run. That's more fantasy goodness. The big question mark will be how Bijon Robinson is deployed. Something I've talked about a lot through the years is the impact that mobile quarterbacks can have on their teammates in fantasy football. It's a big deal for pass catchers, and it's still somewhat of a deal at running back too, because when mobile quarterbacks take off and run, they're taking a play all by themselves. Teams only have a certain number of plays that they're gonna run in a game. If the quarterback is running, that takes one of those plays away. Now, you can obviously combat that with good efficiency and just more plays run. But when it comes to our running backs and wide receivers, we won as many plays available as possible. Like if Lamar Jackson's under center, there are fewer plays available for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends than if someone like Kirk Cousins is under center, which is what Atlanta has this year. Because Cousins isn't gonna run that much. That means that Robinson has a little bit more room to split a backfield with someone like Tyler Algeer. Like. Realistically, Robinson can get to a fifty five percent rush share in this offense, while Algier is closer to thirty percent, and that would allow both of these backs to hit pretty good volume marks. Robinson can get to that two hundred and thirty two hundred and forty attempt range, Algier one hundred and thirty or so. That's why I don't agree with this idea that if Robinson has a big season, Algier is going to become a zero, or he needs to become a zero, Algier can still be involved. What's nice is that there's a little bit more room for both of these running backs on the ground because Kirk Cousins lacks mobility, and we know that Robinson is already an elite pass catcher at the position that's gonna be there. So I think Robinson is one of the very few backs in fantasy football who can compete with Christian McCaffrey. This year. He looks really good in projections. The phrase he's a better pick and best ball that definitely gets thrown around too loosely in the fantasy football space by myself included at times. But I do think with Green Bay Packers pass catchers, they're just better best ball picks than managed league picks. There are a lot of good but not elite weapons in Green Bay, at least right now. Some of them have a shot to become elite. I'd put Jayden Reid at the top of that list, but they are just solid, solid weapons throughout that lineup. After the Packers absolutely crushed the twenty twenty three draft, Tucker Craft and Luke Musgrave are both capable tight ends. Jayden Reid, like I said, he's coming off a rookie season is yards per route run was above two, and so was Dontavian Wixes, who I think is just a massive value in all formats. I love throwing the wicks start right now. Get this, Since twenty eleven, there have only been twenty six rookie wide receivers who ran two hundred or more routes while hitting a two point zero yards per rout run rate, just twenty six. That's only two rookie wideouts a year. Of those twenty six, we have next season data on twenty one of them. Because five wide receivers Pukinakua, Jaden Reed, Dantavian Wicks, Tank Dell and Rashid Rice got their last season as rookies. But among the twenty one players who had two hundred or more routes and a two point zero yards per rout run rate as rookies, each of them played at least seven games as second year players. Guess how many of those players scored double digit PPR points per game in year two. Eighteen of them and thirteen of the twenty one hit fourteen PPR points per game. That's a lower end wide receiver two season. Now, I'm not saying that's the automatic face for Jaden Reid and Dontavian Wicks. Many of the wide receivers who were able to have big sophomore seasons in the NFL after hitting a two point zero yards per route run rate as rookies, many of them entered the NFL as elite prospects, like Jamar Chase, Odell Beckham, Justin Jefferson, AJ Green and so on. My thing is, though, for someone like Wicks, you're not paying a premium whatsoever, why not take the chance. That's why I do think range of outcomes wise, he's the most intriguing Packers wide out right now. But on the projections front, things are really hard to figure out. We didn't always get to see Christian Watson, Jayden Read, Dontavian Wicks, and Romeo Dobbs all healthy at once last year, but they were around the playoffs. They were at least active. Injuries definitely were still lingering, but they were active. But just to show you how wild it is to project this group, in their playoff game against the Cowboys, none of the wide receivers hit an eighty percent role participation. And then in round two things just shifted a little bit. We saw Wix run fewer routes, Jaden Reed ran more. I'm sure you guys remember some of this from your playoff contests and fantasy. It was relatively unpredictable, and that's the fear heading into twenty twenty four. They have a lot of above average to really good players, but they don't have these elite guys just yet who stand out, who are gonna command absolute twenty five twenty six percent target chairs. And what makes it really tough is that Christian Watson, when he was healthy last year, he was pacing the group in target share. It's just a mess overall. I still think that Wix, though, is an interesting target because when you consider cost, it just makes too much sense, and I think getting a piece of each of these players is absolutely fine. In best ball, you're looking for those spiked weeks. It could just be a headache without an injury in a managed league. When the Rams took Blake Korum in the draft last month, Kyron Williams fantasy stock took a hit. Instead of the backfield being all Kien Williams, he's now got to fight off a pretty good Day two prospect in Blake Korum. Now I get the concerns, but my projections still see Kyron as a solid enough low end RB one in fantasy. At the moment, I have Kyroen projected for two hundred and thirty seven carries and fifty four targets. That's definitely a per game downgrade from where he was last year. No one should be selling Kien Williams this year as someone who's going to see the same year over year output. That's almost definitely not happening. He scored over twenty one PPR points per game. With that being said, you might hear two hundred and thirty seven carries and say, well, that means that you don't think Blake Korm will be that involved. I don't think that's true. I still have Korum for about one hundred and forty rush attempts in that offense. And that's mostly been echoed by the Rams front office at coach Speak Index on Twitter. It's a great Twitter account for you guys to check out. They posted the video where Rams GM less Sneed said that the Blake Korum pick is quote so we don't just totally run down Kyen. To me, that doesn't scream fifty to fifty split. It means they have a semi undersized back in Williams that they really like, but they need him to stay healthy. They probably don't want to repeat of last year. That's consistent with the post draft take that I had on this show. I don't think the Quorum pick was that surprising when you put yourself in the Rams shoes. They really had issues behind Williams last year. This gives them some stability. It also doesn't totally torpedo Kyron Williams value. Now, with all that being said, I can't say that Williams is some ideal selection in early best ball drafts, or that he'll be a great pick in your redraft leagues. I describe his current draft position as fine I'm just more inclined to wait two rounds and get players who have arguably better workload projections. There's a pocket of running backs and drafts right now who all project to be potential bellcows, but they go significantly later than someone like Kien Williams or someone like Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry, and I don't think that gap should be as big as it is. Two of them were in a write up that I did last week in the Late Round Fantasy Football Newsletter, those two being Rashad White and Isaiah Pacheco, and I think that you could throw Joe Mixon in here too. From strictly a projection standpoint, those three running backs really don't profile all that differently in points per game compared to what Kian Williams or a Josh Jacobs. I think Jacobs and Williams have good team situations and contingent upside if their rookie backfield teammates get hurt, and that's a plus. But look at White, Pachecko, and Mixon. White's biggest competition right now is a Day three Bucky Irving, who might be able to steal some receiving work, but that's also a piece to White's game. That's pretty good. White had arguably a better receiving profile than Irving entering the league. In fact, I'd said that it was more impressive than Irving's. Rashad White was a baller in college as a receiver, and he's been a strong receiver in the NFL too. Dave Canalis not being in Tampa Bay that might hurt Rashad White, but White still has a strong projection here in twenty twenty four. Isaiah Pacheco, He's on a team in Kansas City that I'm going to talk about in a second. But I don't see why we should expect his workload to dramatically change year over year when last year he was a solid RB two with upside. He was one of seven running backs that hit a seventy five percent running back rush air per game rate a season ago, and he was at about a ten percent target share, and the Chiefs didn't do anything significant to that running back room. And then Joe Mixon he goes to Houston. He's competing with Damian Pierce. The Texans told us what they thought about Damian Pierce last year when they gave Devin Singletary more carries down the stretch. They don't like him in that scheme. Say what you want about Mixon's efficiency. If he sees touches in that offense, that offense that's filled with firepower, he's he's probably gonna post some fantasy production. I just don't understand the groupings that we see over an underdog were a guy like Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs or even Kyron Williams, where those players are going pretty significantly earlier than Rashad White, Isaiah Pachecko, and even Joe Mixon. Now, I like White and Pachecko more, but the mixing thing is a worthwhile call out too. Now I talked about Isaiah Pachecko. Now let's talk about the Chiefs offense. They were totally average on offense last year compared to the rest of the league at least a'ts scoring touchdowns. Kansas City finished last season with just thirty seven offensive touchdowns. During their five previous seasons with Patrick Mahomes under center, and some of those seasons being sixteen game ones instead of seventeen game ones, the chief scored sixty six, forty six, fifty three and fifty nine touchdowns. They were at thirty seven last year. They added to the offense this offseason and they could just see general regression heading their way. The Chiefs scored a touchdown on every one hundred and sixty one total yards last year. That was a bottom half number in the league. It's also by far their highest mark in yards to touchdowns since Mahomes took over. Their previous high with Mahomes was one hundred and thirty six yards per touchdown. Chances are the Chiefs are going to be better offensively this year than they were last year, even with everything going on with Rashid Rice, and that means players in that offense, Isaiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce. They look better in my projections than what their adyp's are showing. Over on underdog Devon a Chan had a season last year like we've never seen before. His projection now is really really difficult. Throughout NFL history, we've seen twenty seven running back seasons where the running back carried the ball one hundred and more times while hitting a six point zero yards per carry average. Devon a Chan's the first player to get over the seven mark, and he was at seven point eight his season. Within basically any efficiency metric was otherworldly. I don't think we should project the same kind of efficiency year over year, of course, but it's reasonable to make him the most efficient back in the projections. No, I think it's natural to project von A Chan to be the best running back in terms of efficiency across the NFL. Now, there are still some things that we've got to figure out with a Chan, which is what makes him such a difficult player to evaluate in fantasy this year. Efficiency can absolutely matter in fantasy football, especially this efficiency, but in the end, volume always wins. And last season, when Raheem Moster and Devon a Chan we're both healthy, we saw Mostart get a little bit more work on the ground, a Chan get a little bit more work through the air. I think we should project a similar thing to happen this year, with maybe some upside leaning towards e Chan on the ground because Raheem Mostert is thirty two years old. But then you factor a few more things here. First, Miami may have a tough time posting fifty seven touchdowns. Again, typically we do see regression from one season to the next. When teams scored that many touchdowns, it doesn't mean Miami's gonna be worse as a team. It just means they may not convert as well. They also added Jalen Wright to the mix, and he's an awesome fit in this Miami system. They didn't have a solid third body in that backfield last year. So how much does he factor into all of this? I think he probably hurts most more than a Chan, but it's still another thing for Achan to deal with. So you've got regression at the team level and the individual level, and then you have right stepping in two. A Chan has insane upside. I'm never gonna tell you to not draft von Achan. I'm merely pointing out that his projection has him closer to a mid to low end RB two when people are drafting him as a low end RB one. And best ball can definitely help a situation like this, And like I said, if things break eight Chan's way, it's clear that the upside is crazy. It just comes down to what type of fantasy manager you are. Are you willing to take on that kind of risk in round two? To me, I'm still more inclined to go with a wide receiver there. It snags some of the belcoals that I just talked about. Before some of those guys in the lower end RB one range because they're getting drafted two or three rounds later in best ball right now. One of the things that I do when I'm building projections is I look at team target shairs at different positions. So I can sit here and say, Justin Jefferson had this target shair last year, so maybe that's a good starting point for this year. But instead of going that deep at first, I just take a step back and look at team positional target chairs that can sometimes give us some insight on how the offense runs. One of the glaring team target chairs from last year occurred in Denver. Over thirty two percent of their targets went to the running back position. That was the highest mark in the league, and it was the fourth highest mark since twenty eleven. As we know, Sean Payton went to Denver last year, and when you look at the top team running back target share season since twenty eleven, there's a lot of Sean Payton in there. This is pretty wild, but eight of the top twenty team running back target share season since twenty eleven came from teams that were coached by Sean Payton. Now you look at what they have at wide receiver, which is unproven talent aside from Courtland Sutton, and then at tight end, which is also unproven talent. Given that, it's not hard to imagine a ton of targets being funneled to the running back position once again. And that's why I've been on Jalil McLoughlin all off season. I think he's one of the best values that you're gonna find in Best Ball right now too. The Odric estimated pick in the draft was more of a Javonte Williams related pick. Estimate is a bigger body dude who doesn't profile that much as a pass catcher. McLaughlin. As I pointed out earlier this offseason, he was a monster last year. He beat teammates samaj p run in, Javonte Williams and expected points added Perkerry success rate, rushing yards overexpected per Kerry ten plus yard run rate, twenty plus yard run rate PFF rush grade, PFF receiving grade, PFF pass blocking grade, and he was better than Williams and yards per route run. Don't be surprised if the Broncos are near the top of the league and running back target chair once again, history tells us that's a pretty good bet. Now. I mentioned in earlier but mobile quarterbacks can hurt the passing volume in their offenses. I talked about it in detail on an episode from last year around this time, episode seven hundred and sixty six, and that leads me to the Indianapolis Colts. Anthony Richardson is seemingly going to be healthy this year. He only really played a significant number of snaps in two games last season. In one of those games, the Colts dropback rate was totally fine at sixty one percent, but in the other one it was below fifty percent. We don't know exactly how run heavy this Indianapolis offense is going to be this year, but considering Anthony Richardson ran the ball twenty times in those starts, we should probably project a below average pass rate. Since twenty eleven, there have been forty seven teams who saw one hundred and more rush attempts from their quarterbacks in a season. The average rank and pass rate among those teams was twenty five point six, meaning the average team among that group ended up ranking twenty fifth to twenty sixth then pass rate in a season where their quarterbacks ran the ball one hundred and more times. Only the twenty twenty two Arizona Cardinals were able to rank higher than tenth in pass rate, and they had exactly one hundred quarterback attempts. They were also a four win team, so gamescript was dictating a more pass heavy game plan. The Colts are projected to be better than that, They're more than likely not going to be a four win team, and their quarterback is projected to run more than that. With the addition of Ad and I Mitchell, it just seems like it's going to be hard for Colts pass catchers to really break through and be weapons in fantasy football. Michael Pittman aside. But if Pittman does lose some target share, whether it be to eighty Mitchell or Josh Dowens, who I like a lot, even he could be in trouble. I still think he can get to one hundred and forty targets, but there's a very real chance that Pittman's the only Colts player to get over one hundred targets this year. Let's continue to talk about mobile quarterbacks. Let's end today's show with two quarterbacks who I think everyone should be targeting. Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels. Honestly, I think the following stat that I'm gonna throw your way right now kind of explains why you should always be targeting mobile quarterbacks in fantasy football. Kyler Murray has scored five or more fantasy points per game via rushing and four of his five seasons. In the other season where he didn't get to five, he was at four point nine, so he's basically at five. Since twenty eleven, we've had thirty five quarterback seasons where the quarterback threw at three hundred or more times while running the ball for five or more rushing points per game. To put that another way, they were their teams starter, they threw the ball three hundred and more times, and they were also scoring a lot of points on the ground per game. Of those thirty five quarterbacks, the lowest number of fantasy points scored per game was seventeen point three. That was Josh Allen during his rookie season. Thirty one of the thirty five quarterbacks hit eighteen points per game. That would have been a lower end QB one season last year. Now, I think we should be pretty confident that Kyler Murray can get there because look at how he's performed throughout his career, and Kyler's upside is pretty evident. With Marvin Harrison now in the mix, the projections really like him, but don't sleep on Jade and Daniels either. He may not be Lamar Jackson on the ground, but what about RG three, what if he has that kind of campaign? I mean, after all, he rushed for two thousand yards over his final two seasons at LSU and Cliff Kingsbury his offensive coordinator. Now, he's not a bad coach for this when you consider what he did with Kyler Murray from a fantasy perspective. Kingsbury's offenses are usually up tempo too, which also really helps for fantasy football. So Murray's my favorite quarterback target right now, and Daniels he's a great target too. The projection is definitely like both of them. But that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and know to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. It's a mailbag week. I'll talk to you on Friday with that episode, but also there's the first episode of Becoming a Best ball bro which will drop on Wednesday. I'll talk to you then