961: 15 Transactions for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha. Hey, Jake zacher Reason.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode nine hundred and sixty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in real quick. Before we get to the transactions this week, first, I just want to let you know that this week's podcast and content schedule, it's just like every other week. You get the four episodes and then the one episode of Late Round Perspective, so five in total, and patrons, you're gonna get your live stream Q and A, the rankings, all that good stuff. But next week is the holiday and it's right in the middle of the week. Before the NFL expanded the schedule, it was no big deal because the fantasy season ended after Week sixteen. But it's a big deal now because it's happening during Championship week. So my plan is the following I'll be doing a fifteen transactions news podcast episode for you in week seventeen. I think it's the most important show that I do each week. It'll help you get your lineups ready for the championship. But that will be the only episode of the show that I do next week now Late Round Fantasy Football patrons, you'll still get my rankings and such, but this podcast will have just one episode next week before a little break in early January. Then it's time to start the offseason stuff, which in my opinion, is the most important content that I do. So hopefully everyone's on the same page. I just want to make that announcement before the show this week now. Second, make sure you're checking out Underdog. If your fantasy season is over, or if you just want some more action, head to Underdog. You can draft teams for playoff contests right now, and you don't need a huge bankroll to play. There's the Mitten that you can join right now for just five dollars per lineup. If you haven't played yet on Underdog, make sure you use promo code Late Round. If you go and sign up, that'll get you a nice deposit offer once you get going. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Late Round. Add Taj Spears so Tony Pollard entered Week fifteen with an ankle injury that may have played a role as to why Taj Spears out snapped Tony Pollard in their game against the Bengals. He outperformed him too. Spears saw eight more snaps than Pollard. He ran twenty seven routes. According to PFF, Pollard ran seven. Now, something that might have been a negative game script, but it also might have been that injury. But Taj Spears scored twenty seven point two PPR points. That was by far a season high. Now, there have been times this season where the Titans have deployed Spears of their pass catching back in a negative game script. Maybe that was the reason that we saw more Spears than Pollard in Week fifteen, But maybe this Pollard injury lingers. That's why you absolutely need to have Taj Spears rostered.

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Speaker 2: Jerome Ford.

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Speaker 1: So, unfortunately Nick Chubb has a broken foot. That means that Jerome Ford is set to be Cleveland's one A in their backfield. He's their lead back, which is more or less what we saw throughout Sunday against the Chiefs. Ford in Week fifteen, he out snapped teammate Pierre Strong thirty six to six. He ran nineteen routes. Strong ran three. Now Cleveland closes out their season with two decent matchups for running backs. They get the Bengals was the ninth best matchup according to justin Fantasy points allowed, and then the Dolphins, which is the eleventh best, and those two games could be negative game scripts for Cleveland. And as we know, Jerome Ford is a pass catching running back, so he's a priority off the waiver wire this week. Add Kendre Miller. Now, another important injury that hit us in Week fifteen was Alvin Kamara. He heard his groin. His Week sixteen status is completely up in the air right now. Kendre Miller would be the back to benefit if Alvin Kamara were to miss any time. He led the New Orleans backfield and snaps. On Sunday he outsnapped Jamal Williams twenty six to six. He ran eleven more routes. The Saints get the Packers and the Raiders to close out the fantasy season. Neither opponent is all that scary, especially since a probable negative game script against the Packers would simply lead to more volume through the air for Kendre Miller, and that's valuable because the Saints don't have many viable pass catchers. So I think Kendre Miller needs to be added this week. Drop Patrick Mahomes so Patrick Mahomes hurt his ankle on Sunday. His status right now is week to week, and that makes him a very easy drop in my opinion. Now I know he's Patrick Mahomes. Honestly, you could have dropped him earlier this season in shallower leagues. He's been a completely average fantasy option this year.

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Speaker 2: And here's the thing. You're not gonna feel.

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Speaker 1: Very confident using Mahomes this week with this injury. And then in Week seventeen, the Chiefs get the Steelers. Pittsburgh just allowed their first twenty plus points scorer in Week fifteen to Jalen Hurts. They're the toughest team for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Now this may seem like a sort of obvious transaction, but it's also a good reminder injured players who won't find your lineup over the next two weeks don't need to be on your roster. Instead, just get a handcuff or something. Honestly, get anything of value. Ad Malik Washington. I think Malik Washington is my favorite low key ad this week. Odell Beckham's no longer a Miami Dolphin. He was averaging two and a half targets per game for them. That's not a lot, but it's not nothing. And then all the while, Jalen Waddles banged up. Right now, I have no idea if he's going to play in Week sixteen. It sounds like his injury is not a major one, but if he's out in week sixteen, Malik Washington is Miami's wide receiver two by default, and in Week fifteen, Washington ended up hitting a season high and career high fifteen point four percent target share. He ran a route on seventy percent of Miami's dropbacks. The Zap model liked Washington, so I think he's the perfect kind of player to add this time of year. Add Brenton Strange, so Evan Ingram's on IR and Breton Strange basically just took his role in the Jags offense.

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Speaker 2: On Sunday, he ran a.

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Speaker 1: Round on eighty four percent of Jacksonville's dropbacks, which is a really good number for a tight end, and he saw twenty eight percent target share. He was basically the security blanket for Mac Jones. He did an average up the target of just four point three yards. The Jags get the Raiders next week in Vegas. Throughout the season, they haven't been very good against tight ends according to adjustin points allowed, so that makes Strange an obvious streamer. Add Jalen McMillan, as they put in the newsletter, never wrong just early. You guys have heard me talk about Jalen McMillan for most of the year. Things are finally starting to come together a little bit. He's still not playing a slot role for the Bucks, which is what I desperately want him to play because I think is a natural slot player, but he's seeing more looks in the offense. He has target shares of twenty five percent and twenty three percent over his last two games. He's found the end zone. In both of those contests, he scored twenty one point nine and eighteen point five PPR points. And over their next two games, the Bucks have decent matchups. They get the Cowboys and the Panthers. I don't know if you're gonna confidently start Jayleen McMillan in a twelve team league, but he certainly deserves a spot in your bench.

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Speaker 2: Ad Kamani Videll.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers backfield has honestly been horrible without JK. Dobbins over their last three games, all without Dobbins the backfield, the running backs have combined for just twenty five PPR points. Now they face three tougher matchups, but twenty five PPR points for all of their running backs in three games is pretty horrific. I'm shouting Outkamani Vaydell today though, because in Week fifteen he played thirty five snaps against the Bucks. Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins combined for fifteen and yeah, a negative game script's gonna do that. Kamani Vadell has been the pass catching back without JK. Dobbins, but Viidell also played a significant number of snaps on the Chargers first drive. It's not like Gus Edwards has been overly effective this year, so you can add Ydell, even if it is sort of a desperation type move. Maybe Dobbins isn't ready by Week seventeen. That's when the Chargers get a really nice matchup against the Patriots ad Craig Reynolds. So we were all kind of surprised on Monday when it was announced that David Montgomery suffered an MCL injury. On Sunday, he's out indefinitely now. Jamir Gibbs is obviously going to get a huge boost. Gibbs is essentially a league winner. Now he likely isn't going to see every single backfield touch, and since it's such a good backfield Craig Reynolds needs to be on your radar.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Reynolds only has twelve touches this year, but this coaching staff has used him in the past. When David Montgomery was out. Without Montgomery last season, Reynolds was seeing roughly thirty two percent of the team's running back rushes. If that happens again this season, that could result in double digit touches when factoring in receiving. The Lions get the Bears in the forty nine ers over their final two games in the fantasy playoffs, Those are two top half matchups for running backs by justin points allowed. More than likely, you only need to go after Reynolds in deeper leagues, but he could be a flex play in those leagues, and now he's only one injury away from being the Lions starter.

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Speaker 2: Add Jalen Cocher so.

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Speaker 1: Jalen Coker returned to the field for the Panthers in Week fifteen after a three game absence. He saw a twenty two percent target share. He had a huge eighty three yard touchdown. He played alongside Adam Thielen and Xavier Laged and for anyone wondering, thelan was the one who played in the slot at least in Week fifteen, although Coker did get some run in there too, But le Get's now dealing with a groin injury that could funnel more targets Coker's way. We may not see a ton of production against Arizona in Week sixteen because they have been pretty good against wide receivers this year. But Week seventeen, it's a game against the Bucks. That one could be interesting. Add Kenneth Gainwell. So Saquon Barkley missed a little bit of time during the Steelers Eagles game on Sunday. He's not really commenting on it, but it should be a wake up call for every Saquon Barkley manager out there. You need to add Kenneth Gainwell. Even if you don't have Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell should be on your bench. He's the clear number two back in Philadelphia. He's played about four times number of snaps as rookie Will Shipley has this year. And he's roster and just five percent of Yahoo leagues. As I've talked about countless times over the last two months, you should have these types of players on your bench right now. Have a player like Kenneth Gainwell over someone who's never going to crack your lineup, because there is a chance with a Saquon Barkley injury that Kenneth Gainwell would find your lineup. The upside is huge even if there is only two games left. Add Damian Pierce. So one of the hardest parts about this time of year is figuring out team motivation. If a team is out of it and maybe a player isn't totally one hundred percent, do they just shut that player down or does the player still go because playing football is that player's livelihood. At the end of the day, none of us really know. We do know that players generally do play, but you never know what can happen in these circumstances. In these scenarios, all we can do is try to plan ahead. And with the Texans right now, things are kind of interesting. Seth Walder of ESPN shared updated seeding probabilities on Twitter on Monday. He showed that the Texans have about an eighty two percent chance for the four seed in the AFC playoffs, they have roughly a seventeen percent chance for the three seed, and then there's a one percent chance at the two seed, and there's a zero percent chance for any other outcome. In other words, their situation is pretty locked in. So that brings me to Joe Mixon. He was banged up a little bit in Week fifteen, and as we know, running backs aren't always fresh as they get into the playoffs, and Joe Mixon means a lot to this offense. So why wouldn't the Texans be overly cautious with Mixon over the next couple of weeks if he has a small injury. Why give him his normal workload? Now, I want to be clear here, Teams usually don't just do this. They usually won't shut a guy down two weeks before the playoffs or three weeks before the players. But I do think that Houston is kind of in a unique situation right now where Joe Mixon isn't totally one hundred percent and Houston seed is kind of locked in. So Damian Pierce, he's the direct early down handcuff. He's the one if Joe Mixon were to get hurt, we'd be saying to add Pierce and then Daraya Gumbawalle would probably steal some receiving work. Now, like I said, none of this is necessarily likely, but it's a possibility, and to me, you should always plan ahead when you only have two more weeks left of this fantasy season.

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Speaker 2: Ad Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: So Aaron Rodgers has ranked as a top twelve quarterback a QB one in back to back weeks. And yeah, he faced the Jags in Week fifteen. That's the easiest opponent for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. But in Week sixteen, the Jets get the Rams. Despite holding brock Purty to very few points this past week, LA is still a plus matchup on paper, and that game has a pretty decent forty six and a half point over under. So Rogers could work as a quarterback streamer once again. Add Cooper Rush if you want to dig a little bit deeper. Cooper Rush gets the Buccaneers this week. Tampa Bay's allowed the second most adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. When quarterbacks face the Buccaneers, they tend to score four point two more points than their season long averages. Rush is coming off of solid owning and a slightly worse matchup against Carolina, and this Bucks Cowboys game has a nearly fifty point total. He's definitely in play at the very least in superflex formats. Add the Indianapolis Colts defense. So the Colts get the Titans this week, and at the time of this recording, I don't even know who the Titans starter is going to be a quarterback either way, though, it's a plus matchup because of Mason Rudolph's three starts this year, Tennessee allowed two top seven defensive performances, and we obviously know how turnover friendly Will Levis is. Tennessee on the year is the top opponent for defenses by justin fantasy points allowed. The Colts are four and a half point home favorites and that game has a forty two and a half point over under. It's a great spot for this defense to produce. So I've got a bonus transaction for you this week. It's to add Alexander Madison and a mirror Abdullah. Sincere McCormick hurt his ankle in the first half of the Raiders game against the Falcons on Monday Night. That resulted in the backfield of Alexander Madison in a mir Abdullah. The fact that McCormick was ruled out of that game in the second half, that's not a good sign for Week sixteen and maybe even Week seventeen. Now, Madison got a little bit more early down work than Abdullah did. Abdullah played his typical pass catching role. He actually scored a touchdown towards the end of that game. So if you look at the fantasy point totals, you'll see Abdullah looking better than Madison. But despite those totals, I would go with Madison over Abdullah on the waiver wire because in Week sixteen and seventeen, the Raiders get the Jags and the Saints. Those are two favorable matchups for running backs. There are also two games where the Raiders could actually keep it close. It could be more of a neutral gamescript environment. That type of game benefits Alexander Madison more. He's already been a workhorse for the Raiders this year. He's had four games with at least a seventy percent running back rush are So you can add both of these players, but I would prefer Alexander Madison that's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Intern to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. You can find me on Blue Sky as well with that exact same handle. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Ten Trends episode. H