902: 15 Transactions for Week 1

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Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with your host JJ zacheris j.

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Speaker 2: J zacher reson what's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine and two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. The NFL season starts in just a couple of days. We're officially back. That means that this fifteen Transactions podcast is gonna hit your ears every Tuesday morning for the next four months. For those of you who are newer to the show, fifteen Transactions, it's a column that I've been writing for basically a third of my life. Now. Each week I talk through players that I'm looking to buy, sell, ad and drop in fantasy football. Now, two things to keep in mind with this show. Two caveats. I call this out each year, but they're important things to say. First, if a player is a bye, let's say, it doesn't mean that you need to buy them for absolutely anything. I'm just giving you a recommendation based on how I think the market is viewing a player. Every Tuesday morning. I also publish my rest of season rankings over on Patreon, so you can always see how I view a player based on those rankings and tiers. Now second, you guys, I try to walk through my analysis with as much sincerity as possible. This podcast each week is what I call my brain vomit. I'm just taking what's in my head and making it as actionable as possible. I'm not hiding anything from anyone, and I'm not shying away from my takes. I'm gonna get plenty wrong with these recommendations each and every week. The goal is not to bat a thousand, because that's impossible. It's just to provide an edge, to provide some value. That's how it goes with fantasy football. So as this season moves forward, yes, I'm fully aware I'm going to get things wrong. And I'm saying that because at the end of the season, at the end of the year, once January hits and we're not worried about managing our fantasy squad, I will do an episode on the things that went right and the things that went wrong in the fantasy football season, the one that we just completed. I do that every single year, so there's no need to go back and forth on JJ got this right and JJ got this wrong. When it's Week six of this NFL season, it does not.

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Speaker 2: Matter to me.

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Speaker 1: All that matters is that I'm giving you the goods, that I'm helping you win a fantasy football title.

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Speaker 2: That's all I care about. In season.

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Speaker 1: We can save all you got this right and you got this wrong stuff for the end of the year at the very least, though, with this show, I hope this episode each week makes you think and learn.

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Speaker 2: That's what this is all about.

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Speaker 1: To me. It's why I show my work because the thought process behind all of this is arguably more important than the action item itself. So keep all of that in mind as you listen each week. Now, before I get into the transactions this week, keep in mind that if you do want a copy of the Late Round Draft Guide still, that Underdog promo is gonna be running through the end of the week. Just sign up at Underdog Fantasy dot com with promo code late Round, make a deposit, and you'll be emailed a copy of the Late Round Draft Guide for absolutely free. You'll also be able to take advantage of some underdog offers as well. There's a deposit bonus, but there's also no Sweat Tuesday, where there's a no Sweat token waiting for you and your lobby. Just make a qualifying entry and you'll either win or get your money back as bonus cash with that token. So check it all out underdog Fantasy dot com, and when you sign up, make sure you use promo code Late Round. Now let's get to the first list of transactions for this twenty twenty four season by Jordan Love. So you've heard me talk all off season about the importance of mobile quarterbacks. I talk about it every off season. I wrote about it at length in the Late Round Draft Guide Jordan Love. Though he's not exactly a mobile quarterback. He rushed for fewer than two hundred and fifty yards last year Lamar Jackson with his legs. He has some ability as a rusher, but he's mostly a pocket passer arctype. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible for him to score fantasy points. And like I talked about in the Bold Predictions episode, he could score a lot of points during the first half of the season because the Packers open up their year against the Eagles, and then they get the Colts, Titans, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals, Texans, and Jags. According to PFF's preseason secondary rankings, only two of those teams rank better than twenty sixth as a unit, those two teams coming at fifteenth and eighteenth. We always want appreciating assets. In fantasy football. Love was drafted on average around that QB nine range.

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Speaker 2: A lot of.

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Speaker 1: Drafts saw Dak Prescott get drafted ahead of Love. There's a very real chance, though, that Jordan Love is a top five quarterback through the front half.

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Speaker 2: Of this season. That's why he's a.

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Speaker 1: Bye sell z a mere White. Look, anyone who's read the Late Round Draft Guide, who's listened to this Late Round podcast over the summer, you know that Zamre White is not my guy this year. He was selected around RB twenty two in your fantasy drafts, but to me, there's a real problem with his ceiling. The pro White argument, it kind of goes like this, the Vegas backfield doesn't have a lot of alternatives, right, it's a mere White back there. He's going to see a lot of work. And look at what he did at the end of last year when he was the sole running back when Josh Jacobs was out, White scored at least twelve point six pper points in each of his final four games. He hit one hundred rushing yards in two of those four games. But here's the thing. He's not that much of a pass catcher. He's never been much of a pass catcher. He didn't have a good receiving profile out of college, and his target share per game rate during that stretch last year was still under ten percent. Now, there was a recent quote from head coach Antonio Pierce that may get fantasy managers really excited. The coach speak Index tweeted this but said that White was essentially the main guy in the backfield on early downs, And like I said, people were excited about that quote. Zamir White's gonna get all this work. To me, though, the fact that he specified early downs as kind of a concern.

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Speaker 2: Not only could there be more of a rotation in that.

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Speaker 1: Backfield just in general than we think because Alexander Madison's there, but White's pass catching upside, it could be capped because Amer Abdullah and Dylan Louby are there on a team that's not projected to be very good. That's not what I want in a fantasy asset. I don't want an early down running back without pass catching upside in a bad offense. So in the end, Zamir White looks like someone who's capable of returning his draft day value, but not exceeding it by that much. And I don't want to draft in RB twenty two or buy an RB twenty two just to get like RB eighteen production. That's not how I play fantasy football. And that's why Zamir White's a cell ad Ray David. So according to Yahoo's numbers, Ray Davis is available in over eighty percent.

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Speaker 2: Of leagues right now.

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Speaker 1: We need to change that. You may not really want to backup running back and a Josh Allen led offense, because we know that Josh Allen himself is going to steal some goal line work, but Davis isn't in that bad of a spot. James Cook isn't that much of a bruiser for Buffalo last year, they didn't really use him at the goal line. Non James Cook running backs last year they out touched Cook at the goal line sixteen to five. When offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in Buffalo midway through last year, the Bill started to run the ball more. They had a dropbacks over expected rate below zero in each of their final six regular season games. Cook saw his rush attempts per game number go from twelve before Brady to sixteen point seven with him, and that resulted in an expected Fantasy points per game tally that was tenth highest at the position according to PFF. During the final eight weeks of last season. The rest of that running back room, though, they were still seeing an expected points per game number that was about nine and a half during that stretch. Imagine if Ray Davis just takes on that role and there's a chance, a decent chance, that he's better than a thirty three year old Latavious Murray, and if he is better, he'll see more work than what those other running backs were seeing. Davis is built like a freaking wrecking ball. He scored pretty well in my ZAP model. The one major problem with him was his age, but his production metrics were absolutely there. So not only does he have some standalone flex appeal in this offense and in this backfield, but he's the top handcuff to James Cook. So Ray Davis should be rostered in way more leagues. Add Andre Yosivash, so it sounds like Yosibash is gonna be Cincinnati's number three receiver to start the year. He could end up playing the Tyler Boyd role in that offense, and over the last three years that role is produced between a fourteen percent and nineteen percent target share per game rate. Now, talent drives opportunity, Yosi Vash has to step up, he has to show that he's talented enough to.

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Speaker 2: Play that role.

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Speaker 1: But when you add in Jamar Chase's contract issue, we may get some interesting production from Yosibash here in Week one against the Patriots. So to me, he's worth a stash. Though I am long term. I am of the belief that rookie Jermaine Burton still has a higher ceiling than what Yosi Vash will provide by Javonte Williams and Jalil McLaughlin. So we rarely see big seasons from running backs who have rookie quarterbacks handing in the ball. But I'm willing to make an exception to the rule with this Broncos backfield this year. You guys have heard me say it a thousand times this offseason. Sean Payton led teams love the target running backs. The Broncos were first in the league last year in running back target share, and Sean Payton's teams since twenty eleven own eight of the top seventeen team running back target share seasons. We now officially know that Samaj p Ryan is no longer in Denver. That leaves that backfield to Javonte Williams, Jualil McLoughlin, Rodric Estimay, and Blake Watson. Estmay and Watson are rookie running backs. They're probably not gonna get first crack in that backfield. It's probably gonna be a combo of Javonte Williams and Julia McLoughlin. Now, Williams is the one who has the most potential. There's no doubt he's the one who could be a true bell coal in that backfield. But don't dismiss McLoughlin. He was top ten in the league last year in yards after contact per attempt, and he gained ten plus yards at the fifth best rate among all fifty plus attempt running backs. P Ran not being there is actually kind of a big deal. He saw an eleven point seven percent target share per game rate last year. That was a top twenty number at running back among backs who played at least eight games. So without much pass catching competition on that roster, we should expect another high target share season from these running backs.

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Speaker 2: Add Samaj p ryin.

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Speaker 1: So since we're already talking about Samaj p Ryan, let's just continue that conversation. Pe Ryan was picked up by the Chiefs and Kansas City really lacks depth behind Isaiah Pachecko. And it was also announced on Monday that Clyde Edwards Laire was placed on the non football illness list.

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Speaker 2: He's going to be out at least the first four games of the year.

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Speaker 1: That leaves the Chiefs running back depth chart to Pachecko, p Ryan, an undrafted rookie fullback Carson Steele. As you just heard, p RAN's no stranger to a pass catching role. He saw an eleven point seven percent target chair per game rate last year. The year prior in Cincinnati he was at eight point eight percent. That type of receiving involvement can make a player relevant in PPR formats, especially in a high powered offense like Kansas City's. And then on top of that, there's handcuff appeal. If Isaiah Pichecko goes down, pe Ryan would become a very interesting fantasy asset. That's what makes him a roster worthy player right now. By Kyler Murray, it seems like every year we get a quarterback in this lower end QB one range. Kyler Murray is like QB eight QB nine this year, at least on non underdog platforms. But we get a player in this range who really really breaks out, and there are many reasons to believe that Kyler Murray could be that guy this year. I've thrown this out there before, but since twenty eleven, there have been thirty five quarterbacks who hit three hundred or more pass attempts with five or more rushing points per game. So they were their teams starting quarterbacks, They threw the ball a lot, and they were giving fantasy managers a lot of production via their legs. Kyler Murray has scored five or more points via his legs in four or five NFL seasons. The one year he didn't, he was at four point nine points per game. Of those thirty five quarterbacks, though twenty of them ended up scoring twenty or more points per game, that would have been a top three number at the position.

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Speaker 2: Last year.

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Speaker 1: Guys Kyler Murray averaged eighteen point three points per game last year, coming off a torn acl and a new offense that lacked weapons, and he picked things up halfway through the year. This season, he's healthy, he's gotten more reps, and I think we'd all agree that his weapons are much much better with Marvin Harrison Junior in the mix. Don't underestimate Kyler Murray in twenty twenty four, add Jalen Wright. There are two ways for players to sort of climb their depth charts. One of them is through injury, the other is through talent. Jalen Wright has outs in both departments this year. He'll start the year as Miami's number three running back, but unlike a lot of backup runners, Wright has multiple outs to get more work with the Dolphins, opting for more of a committee approach. Either Devon h Chan or Raheem Moster can get hurt. If one of those two events happens, then Jalen Wright is all of a sudden going to get a decent workload and one of the most efficient offenses in football and right, just like Raheem Mostered and Devon Han, he fits this offense really well.

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Speaker 2: His production profile was solid.

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Speaker 1: Enough coming out of Tennessee, and most importantly, he's got the speed element that Mike McDaniel's always looking for in this zone. Scheme. So if one of those two running backs ahead of him goes down, or if Jalen Wright just shows up, he should be able to produce. He should be able to get some production and it may not even take an injury. I don't think his ceiling is massively high without an injury, but he could be usable in deeper formats even without one. And right now he's only rostered in twenty one percent of Yahoo leagues. That number needs to be higher. And Luke McCaffrey. So, we saw Cliff Kingsbury coach the Cardinals for four years between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty two. During those four seasons, Arizona played at a really really fast pace. They hit at least sixty six plays per in three of those four seasons. For some context, in twenty twenty three, just last year, only two teams reached sixty six plays per game. That's gonna benefit the pass catchers in Washington. Now, there's plenty of data that says that we shouldn't reach for pass catchers who have rookie quarterbacks throwing them the ball. And Jaden Daniels is a mobile quarterback too, But Luke McCaffrey is essentially free right now, He's out there in about ninety five percent of Yahoo leagues, and that's despite the fact that without Jehan Dotson in the picture, the Commanders have an obvious opening at slot. They need a slot receiver, They need someone to step up. McCaffrey's only played two years of wide receiver after converting from playing quarterback, but he had pretty strong production in the zap model. Like given context and given where he was drafted, he could really carve out a role this season. And that role is going to be in an offense that really pushes pace sell Remandre Stevenson. So we've seen Ramandre Stevenson in this pass catching role over the last couple of years. That's kind of gotten him by in fantasy football. But what if it's not there in the same way in twenty twenty four. What if Antonio Gibson, who's not seen worse than a nine point five percent target share per game rate throughout his career, what if he sees a lot of work through the air. Gibson has not only seen a lot of work, but he's been above the league's average in yards per route run in every year of his career.

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Speaker 2: Now I get it.

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Speaker 1: Ramandre Stevenson got a new contract this offseason. Fantasy managers are really excited about that, but that's not guaranteeing another season with a thirteen percent target share, and that's scary because the Patriots aren't protected to be very good this year. What happens when negative game scripts hit. Now, you could say that a lot of his pass catching last year just came on first and second down anyway. But last year, you guys Weremandre Stevenson was the RB twenty seven in PPR points per game. Like I said, was Zamir White. I want my RB twos to have more legitimate upside, and there are ways for Ramandre Stevenson's season to go south. And the Patriots open up their season against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, and forty nine ers. Now could be the time to sell now. Stevenson is a three down back this year, and you believe that he's a three down back, that's a little bit different. I don't think that he's gonna see as much work as what we've seen in the past, with Antonio Gibson being a pretty big reason as to why Gibson might not have as much standalone value but he can dig into Remandre Stevenson's workload. And if I'm wrong, then we're just looking at my first l of the season, the first of many.

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Speaker 2: Add Greg Dolsic.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things to keep in mind with late round tight ends, or in this case, a lower rostered tight end is to target open pass catching rooms. Since twenty fourteen, there have been thirty seven tight ends who were drafted after tight end one territory who then finishes a top ten option at the position. A total of thirty six of those tight ends, thirty six of the thirty had one or fewer teammates with a twenty percent target share per game rate. So in other words, there was at most just one other pass catching option on that team who was getting a lot of work in Denver. That one player probably Courtland Sutton. The tight end to target, though, is Greg Dulsig. Dulciic was admittedly a favorite of mine last year, he just couldn't stay healthy. The favorable case for Dulsich is pretty simple, though he had a very underrated rookie campaign. His seventeen point seven percent target share per game rate as a rookie it only trailed Evan Ingram and Kyle Pitts when looking back to twenty eleven when looking at all rookie tight ends during that period, and dulcig had a good ZAP Model score too. So if you're struggling at tight end, I think Dulsich is a smart end of bench stash. We should learn a lot from his Week one usage too by Jackson Smith and Jigba.

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Speaker 2: Look.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the day, I think that JSN was really misused last season. His average at the target was six point four yards. That was one of the lowest marks in the league, and he led all thirty plus target players in percentage of targets that came behind the line of scrimmage. That's according to PFF, it's tough to score fantasy points in a crowded offense with that kind of usage. This year could be different. You get Ryan Grubb coming over his offensive coordinator and he should push the ball down.

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Speaker 2: The field more.

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Speaker 1: We could also see the Seahawks run with a little bit more tempo. Not only that, but Tyler Lockett is coming off his worst season in yards per route run since twenty seventeen, and he's currently nursing a knee injury. According to a conversation that I had with doctor Edwin Poorros. Based on the amount of time that Lockett has missed and the bracing and taping that he was wearing during individual drills, this could be a chronic tendon issue for Lockett, and according to Poorros, the best way to manage this could be through lower reps, which would of course benefit Jackson Smith and the talent profile is there for JSN. He scored as an elite prospect in the ZAP model. Maybe this is the year sell brock Purty. So brock Perty's currently pacing to have the best touchdown rate in NFL history. After twenty one regular season starts, he has a seven point two percent touchdown rate. Seven point two percent of his pass attempts have resulted in touchdowns. Just for some comparison, Aaron Rodgers' career rate is six point two percent, Patrick Mahomes six point one percent. This is unlikely going to keep up for brock Purty. Now more volume could benefit Perty in twenty twenty four. The forty nine ers are probably going to see more pass attempts this year simply because of regression, But touchdowns drive quarterback scoring, and even with a strong touchdown rate. Last year, Purty averaged eighteen and a half points per game. It wasn't anything special. Now, it's good that Brandon Ayuk signed his extension in San Francisco, but Trent Williams status is currently up in the air, and that's not a small problem for brock Purty. Williams missed Week seven and Week eight last year. In those two games, Perty scored twelve point eight and eighteen point three points. That eighteen point three number that's being boosted by a fifty seven yard performance on the ground that was by far a career high for brock Purty. That's the only time he's rushed over twenty yards in a single game. And not only that, but brock Purty last year had three regular season games where he had multiple interceptions. Two of those three games came without Trent Williams. Now, is this all coincidence? I mean, maybe the correlations a little bit weird, but when we're talking about such a substantial offensive piece, it's not surprising that there were struggles without Trent Williams. And the forty nine ers get a tough opponent in Week one against the Jets. Perty is not an easy start in that matchup. Especially right now as of today, where Trent Williams and his status is up in the air. The fact that we're already in a spot where we're contemplating Benching Brock party that says everything.

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Speaker 2: Add Colby Parkinson, Now.

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Speaker 1: There's a chance that we see some long lasting production from Colby Parkinson this year. The Rams tight end room is really lacking experience. Parkinson got a decent deal this offseason he could carve out a role. But even without that weekend week out upside, Parkinson does make for an interesting streamer here in Week one. The Rams get the Lions and that game as a high over under, and the Lines have been a top ten defense for opposing tight ends in each of the last three seasons. Now, that's not the best evidence in the world when we're talking about a brand new season, but it's not nothing either. At the very least, Parkinson could see some looks through the air in a high scoring game. That's all we can really ask for with the tight end streamer. Add the Los Angeles Chargers defense. Always a little difficult to find a defense for Week one because so many fantasy managers are drafting with Week one in mind. When they're drafting their defenses. If Cincinnati's out there, sure they're a better streaming option, but the Chargers are available in so many leagues this is a more usable recommendation. But Los Angeles faces Gardner Minshew in LA. The Chargers are three point favorites and the over under in that game it's around forty points. With a new defensive minded coaching staff, they could surprise us a little bit in Week one. At the very least, I think they kind of have a higher floor. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Difference to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the first ten Trends episode of the season. I'll talk to you then,