NFL Divisional Round Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we like our games big and our point spreads small.

00:00:07
Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in the Chris Westling Podcast. How do you back?

00:00:12
Speaker 1: With Cynthia Freelan, the best numbers man or woman in the business. We call this man versus machine. Cynthia, we've been picking three games all season long.

00:00:24
Speaker 2: You've only got seven games left of this entire season.

00:00:28
Speaker 3: But they're big games.

00:00:29
Speaker 2: They are oh there.

00:00:29
Speaker 3: It's not like they're like seven, eh, you know, it's like seven big one.

00:00:34
Speaker 1: No, And that's why this is the best weekend because you get four of those seven. You've been living with those teams for so long, and you know I alluded to it in the intro. There are a lot of big point spreads this week, which I don't love.

00:00:47
Speaker 2: You know, I a divisional round week. You want, you want them.

00:00:49
Speaker 1: To be closer on paper, but you never know what you're gonna get. And that is especially true with our picks lately. I went one and two last week, Cynthia, and you went to in one.

00:01:03
Speaker 3: So we went ahead. Good job by one, So I knew, Yes.

00:01:05
Speaker 1: You got the Texans very right and I got the Chargers very wrong. We were both in on the Eagles and got that right, and the Bucks, I would mess us up. If they're playing that game again this week, I would make the same pick, but it ultimately didn't work out so very close. We're both now over five hundred, so you know you can't argue with that for the season. But I'm annoyed because picking literally every single game, which they keep track of on Game Deview, I'm twenty over picking every game. I'm somehow better off there. We're gonna change the setup this week. Every week we picked exactly three games. We're still gonna do that, but since there's only four, we're gonna go through all four and we're gonna each have one stay away, so we each pick one stay Away.

00:01:52
Speaker 2: Let's start.

00:01:52
Speaker 1: We're gonna just go in chronological order, so let's start with a Saturday afternoon game.

00:01:56
Speaker 2: It's Texans Chiefs.

00:01:58
Speaker 1: As we're recording this, the Chiefs are favored by eight and a half.

00:02:01
Speaker 2: Which way are you leaning Chiefs?

00:02:03
Speaker 3: With the Chiefs to win but Texans with the points? Okay, that's what I think happens in this one. I think it's like a nice just like before when they played I don't know, not that long ago it was a seven point win. I think that's about right where it should be. I think it was twenty six to nineteen last time that they played. I think that's I think I have twenty twenty seven something like that. So I think it's a Chiefs win. They're so healthy, that's my number one thing with this team, Like no one's on the injury report compared to other teams of the Lions, I'm wearing the shirt. Yeah, so that drives a win for me.

00:02:37
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know what to think about the rest versus the rust. This is kind of unprecedented, the twenty five twenty four days thing, and yet ultimately I think that's an advantage for the Chiefs, But I do think it's an advantage of the Texans, who are heavy underdogs here. Just played in Arrowhead and I think it was one of the Chiefs' best offensive performances of the year. And yet until that tanked out injury, they were going toe to toe, and I think they have to have some confidence.

00:03:03
Speaker 2: I'm with you.

00:03:04
Speaker 1: I'm going Texans plus eight and a half for this game.

00:03:09
Speaker 2: I'm even as the week is going on.

00:03:11
Speaker 3: You're talking yourself into the Texans.

00:03:13
Speaker 2: I am really talking myself? Oh, I like it.

00:03:15
Speaker 1: I know they haven't lost the arrowhead since Christmas of twenty twenty three, and yet I do think the Texans are the best defense in the AFC. And it's versus an offense that was playing its best late in the season and figured some things out, but overall struggled, and so I think that's a lower scoring game. I'm hoping that the Texans offense can join the party. We've had problems with them all year and I think CJ. Stroud is capable of doing that. That that I think the monkey'll be a little off their back. They'll feel good they got a playoff win. They're coming into it. They've been you know, they're rested from resting Week eighteen, but then they're coming in.

00:03:55
Speaker 2: I don't know I'm convincing. I like it.

00:03:56
Speaker 3: Whatever, talk yourself into it. I like it.

00:03:58
Speaker 2: And you did.

00:03:58
Speaker 3: You didn't even bring Upkamori and Derek Singley Junior has number one and number two like in terms of when they've been targeted and tight coverage. Best corners in the league.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: Yes, and the Chiefs have been great going over the middle of the field, and you could do that with with Kelsey certainly, and Noah great. But the Texans have been very good defending those plays even though they're short a few players Jillen Petrie, justin Reid, you know, but they've they've played well despite those injuries. All right, let's go to Lions and Commanders. All start off here because I know you know you're feeling a certain way about this team.

00:04:29
Speaker 2: You know, game just a little nervous.

00:04:31
Speaker 1: If there's ever a playoff, every playoff game you should be nervous for.

00:04:34
Speaker 2: It's a Divisional round game.

00:04:35
Speaker 1: Of course, it's going to be hard, but there's a reason the Lions are favored by eight and a half. This is my favorite pick of the entire week, is the Lions covering that big spread. Here's why. When they play the Commander's defense, it's the biggest mismatch on Divisional round weekend. Last week, I saw Baker Mayfield with a lot of time. I trust Jared Goff even more with a lot of time. I think that offensive line give some time. But even more important, this Commander's team is the worst team according to Next Gen stats against runs under center in terms of success rate, in terms of giving up explosive runs. They're second worst. What are the Lions major in? That's what they major in. It's a light defense too. I often see Jeremy Chin or Mike Sandristo, they're in the box as kind of a third linebacker. And I just think the Lions are too strong, too good offensively not to put up thirty five points in this game. And I think that's enough to cover the spread that they score between thirty five and forty. Jayden has a fine game, and it's somewhere like thirty eight to twenty four.

00:05:39
Speaker 2: Let's go Lions.

00:05:40
Speaker 3: Let's just go through it. I mean, I actually have a closer game. It is my most confident on the week in terms of who wins, which is not a great place to be for me. Mentally, I like a hedge. I'm a banker. I come from not wanting to lose. Like this is listen, it's this is.

00:05:54
Speaker 2: You're not a banker.

00:05:56
Speaker 3: You're here, I know you are. I'm a refou banker.

00:05:59
Speaker 2: Broadcast eh, who's been getting the.

00:06:02
Speaker 3: Questionable But but ultimately, I mean, look, I agree with you on all of those points. The under center runs also the O line for to me, O lines are really really predictive in the postseason, even more so than the regular season. And I just think that the Lion's O line, which is knock on wood, like one of the areas where they're not as banged up. Taylor Decker should play not as banged up, and I'm worried about Kevin Zeitler not playing. I'm concerned about that. However, in this matchup, this is not the heaviest pressure team in the Commanders. They have been bringing some pressure, but not like some of these other teams in the playoffs.

00:06:38
Speaker 2: So I mean, calm down about it, feel.

00:06:43
Speaker 3: Good, people like act like you've been there before, like we were here last year. But other than that, never okay, Mars never been here before.

00:06:48
Speaker 1: Marshaun Lattimore is not really getting it done so far for the Commanders, So I think you have some I just like.

00:06:55
Speaker 3: That I'm around Saint Brown was like Diami Brown was drafted ahead of me, and I'm ooh, I like that locker room motivation.

00:07:03
Speaker 1: That's another fun one. And I just think I talked about it a little in the previous show. There are two teams at different points in their builds. This is a really mature Lions team, and I feel like the Commanders kind of won their Super Bowl last season.

00:07:18
Speaker 2: Now, if you.

00:07:19
Speaker 1: Told me there's four minutes left in the game and the Lions are only up six and Jayden Daniels have the ball at that point, it all goes out.

00:07:26
Speaker 2: The window and I'm not only are they not going to cover it? To me, I'm not feeling.

00:07:31
Speaker 1: Great because that that young man is magical and he has something really special. But you mentioned like pass rush. You know that the Lions, I think they can maybe get home a little bit. Some weaknesses on that Washington O Lion at left tackle Brandon Coleman. I've seen in Week eighteen the Cowboys kind of attacked Nick Alley Gretty their guard. So some spots where maybe the Lions can blitz and get home like they did against the Vikings.

00:07:57
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the Eagles.

00:07:58
Speaker 3: Yes, let's move on in the Rams game.

00:08:00
Speaker 1: I think the two Sunday games are better ultimately on paper. Surprising what a big line this was when I first saw it early in the week. It's actually come down slightly, but not much. It's Eagles minus six right now over the Rams. Which way are you leaning? And to review, neither of us did a stay away in the first two games, that's right, and both of us went Texans and went why this is.

00:08:24
Speaker 3: My stay away okay from in terms of the I mean, I know the next game is like the better one. It's mostly a pick'em, but that means that whoever I picked a win than is kind of in the right.

00:08:33
Speaker 2: Ok Right.

00:08:34
Speaker 3: So anyways, so this is my stay away from the line, not from the winner. I think the Eagles win this one, but I wouldn't be I would be equally unsurprised if it was by one point or if it was by ten. You know, we saw them. They had a pretty massive win when they were out here in Los Angeles. But I still think there's something special about getting all the pieces on this Rams offense together. There's some stat you know, since the beginning of last season, like a third of the snaps is a total amount that they've played together. They being Matthew, Stafford, Kyra and Williams, Cooper Cup and of course Puka Nukua. So there, I think there's something there. But it's going to be cold, it's going to be I mean it's outside, obviously, it's going to be angry. We know Philadelphia is not the you go in It's not the warm and friendly Sean Fines. It's an angry situation. And I think that the secondary of the Rams is more, way, way, way more vulnerable than we saw from Minnesota. Minnesota. There's no time for Sam Darnold to.

00:09:32
Speaker 1: Pass right when you have one quarterback that you trust a lot more than the other. And I trust Matthew Stafford more in this game than Jalen Hurts.

00:09:41
Speaker 2: It's tough to give away six points.

00:09:45
Speaker 1: All the points you make are are really strong in terms of you want to stay away and you don't know how it's gonna turn out. And yet when I thought about you got to pick three out of four games here, yep, I actually do feel pretty good about the Eagles good. I mean my model has seven points, so sixes is a lot, and I don't love doing that, but I am taking the Eagles to cover the six.

00:10:09
Speaker 2: Now.

00:10:10
Speaker 1: I got some grief from RAMS fans after our previous Your daughter, she, I mean, she does not listen to our previous show. She is a I'm gonna watch the three hours of the game and be intense and be clapping really loud, and then she's gonna unplug from all coverage until the next game.

00:10:25
Speaker 3: Is that's smart. That's a great way to she's so healthy, great great way to healthy. Good job.

00:10:31
Speaker 1: But some Rams fans weren't happy because we had on bo Wolf who covers the Eagles, and it was an Eagles leaning pod. And look, we cover the Rams as much as any team around him and I especially in this studio, and I felt like we covered them a lot after the Monday night game. And ultimately, I do think the Eagles are the more fascinating team here because they've spent years building a roster this good, and they could get upset. The Rams have that sort of magic. They have the coach, they have the quarterback. It could happen. But when I look at this matchup, I do think the first meeting is really instructive. My number one question is can these players hold up on a cold day against this Eagle's O line? Just run after run after run including line.

00:11:19
Speaker 3: So I mean that's why I think Eagles win. But like I said, I think the score can be all over the place.

00:11:24
Speaker 2: I tend to agree.

00:11:26
Speaker 1: I think it's a high variance game and Rams fans will be in my mention getting after me if they do it.

00:11:32
Speaker 2: But these are the players I'm thinking about.

00:11:34
Speaker 1: You mentioned the cornerbacks, where we'll see if Jalen Hurts can actually deliver the ball. But that's a mismatch on the outside for DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, who's back at practice on Thursday. Dallascott at mispractice, but it was with an illness, which generally you would think he'll be okay by Sunday.

00:11:47
Speaker 3: I actually think if you're even a little ill, you should get the heck out of right. Stop infecting people. People at our place should.

00:11:53
Speaker 2: Do that too.

00:11:53
Speaker 1: Locker room not the situation. You do not want to entirely sick. No, but the Rams are going all the way. They haven't been as great in general in the Stafford era.

00:12:05
Speaker 3: Outside Arizona's more east of Los Angeles.

00:12:07
Speaker 1: Wow, that's an indoor situation, and it's the defense. It's these players. Christian rose Boom, Yep, Brayden Fisk much better stopping the pass. Sometimes you can run on him a little bit. Byron Young not not the biggest guy on the edge.

00:12:22
Speaker 2: Now.

00:12:22
Speaker 1: Neville Gallimore is a guy who's playing a lot for them. I think about that matchup and the Eagles just leaning on them, and I can't get that game. I believe it was Week twelve out on my head, so I think offensively, that's the big mismatch Eagles run game.

00:12:38
Speaker 2: Yeah. On the other side, we'll see, we'll see.

00:12:40
Speaker 1: Can Stafford still beat a great defense in the playoffs? I think it's possible. But this is a great defense. All right, let's go to the last game here, this is.

00:12:49
Speaker 3: It should be stay away, but I thought it'd be more fun to not to pick it.

00:12:52
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm I'm just gonna explain why I'm staying away. I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl before the season. At this point, it just feels ridiculous to go off that. That's cowardly. You just stay with it. And yet I do feel like the Ravens' very best game is the best game in the NFL. Now, can they play their best game four straight weeks? No, that's not how football works normally. I think the Bills are their baseline is a little higher. Maybe there's more variance with the Ravens. Some of Lamar's playoff showings do affect me a little bit, and so like my head leans slightly Ravens. But I think the Bills having the home game is enough for me that I feel good about sticking with my preseason pick, and I do pick the Bills. But ultimately, I just am saying to fans out there who are thinking whether I bet this game or not, I don't know.

00:13:46
Speaker 2: This is as good as football gets. Yeah, And if you're like me.

00:13:49
Speaker 3: If you need something to make this more exciting.

00:13:51
Speaker 1: Right, if you're like me and you just do on the stress and you enjoy it way more when there's sort of nothing on the line, just enjoy this game.

00:13:57
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm gonna do. I'm staying away.

00:13:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean look for this game for me. The fact that the Bills are home underdogs, what I don't understand that I agree.

00:14:07
Speaker 1: I think the Bills should be about minus one and a half probably just flip it right. I didn't even mention the Ravens are favored by one half on the road.

00:14:12
Speaker 3: So that's why I'm more comfortable. That's why I faded the other game, because I don't know. I figured you were going to fade this last one since we both didn't take any game on Saturday. So whatever, I just want to be a little different and more fun. But anyways, the thing that's interesting for me in this one is a Flowers availability. So far, as of recording this episode, he has not been seen in the open portion of practice. I love that, like very specific open whatever, but he hasn't been seen. And the thing about Zay Flowers and I'm going to say this, let's see if I let's say, if I can say this as nice as possible to B C Alump just like me. So he doesn't run the most precise routes, and sometimes chaos is good like in poker. Yeah, never want to be predictable. You know, you don't want people to know your rules. You don't want you people to know your well good news. I don't even think Zay Flowers knows his predictability right, So that actually against this past defense I think is an advantage. And if he's not playing, Rashad Bateman is a much more precise route runner. Now Christian Benford is very good in that secondary, but I have some questions about the rest of the secondary for the bills. And because of those questions, you can get gut. However, if you're gonna start following rules, like you know, running a precise route and being great that heck, they can figure it out. They can jump your route. They can learn a little bit more, you have a better chance of it. But if you're zig zagging all over the hey, you know the that is interesting in my opinion. And the other thing that I like. Your girl loves Jumbo and I love how the Bills use Jumbo more than anyone else, meaning they bring in the extra offensive lineman number seventy. Alec Anderson's his name. If you want to become friends with him on Facebook, I'm sure or whatever. I'm sure he's not on you know, ex, Blue Sky or whatever, because sometimes those guys don't have a ton of followers. He probably could be your friend on those things. But anyways, I think it's fun to watch them play in those heavy personnel formations. And this is where Josh Allen has to be the MVP because Lamar Jackson could rely on Derek Henry. I remember that game thirty five to ten. We all remember Derek Henry ran roughshot over them. We got it. They're not going to give him light boxes or even neutral boxes as often in this one. They gave it to three times in that game. Why, I don't know. They're gonna go heavier to stop Derek Henry and force Lamar Jackson to pass on them.

00:16:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the biggest advantage for the Ravens. Got into it with Brian Baldinger your your friend love Baldy on our preview show, and I do think the size in the consistency with which they can run the ball is the biggest problem for Buffalo, who's a little bit smaller of a defense.

00:16:37
Speaker 2: I yeah, I will look into becoming friends.

00:16:39
Speaker 3: You should with Alec if anyone could be you.

00:16:42
Speaker 1: He seems kind of nasty though he's won. If when you flip like he's playing past the whistle. You know how they say, played to the whistle, He's playing a little past the whistle.

00:16:52
Speaker 3: That's at Baldy.

00:16:53
Speaker 2: Yes, that's what you want in your sixth offensive lineman.

00:16:55
Speaker 3: That's kind of how I act too. Yes, you know you do, I asked, I was. I got to see one of my friends, Matthias q Nuka. He was in town last week. Colleen and I were hung out with it, which was very funny because the size discrepancy was hysterical. Anyways, I got Matthias to agree that that I'm giving big, mean defensive back energy. I'm undersized. We got it mean defensive back. Yes, I'm playing through the whistle. Man. I'm Kirby Joseph, I'm Brian Branch let's go.

00:17:23
Speaker 2: I'm more Chauncey Gardner Johnson.

00:17:25
Speaker 3: Oh, you are definitely little crap.

00:17:27
Speaker 1: Talkuthy annoying, maybe inconsistent too, But no, no.

00:17:33
Speaker 3: No, his teammates love him. The other team doesn't like him so much. But his teammates love him.

00:17:38
Speaker 2: And it is tricky.

00:17:39
Speaker 1: And we're taping this Thursday afternoon and Zay Flowers hasn't practice. You're right, that's a huge I mean, just think about last year's AFC Championship game if he had just held on to the ball there. His big plays were the reason that they were coming back in that game. And he does something that the rest of the team just can't do. I love that, that chaos theory that you're bringing. He's a little bit of like the learn how to play. He's like the basic guy at the poker table that actually messes with the experts and.

00:18:08
Speaker 3: Everyone gets really mad because he doesn't follow the rules. You can't do that.

00:18:13
Speaker 1: So look, you are taking the bills. I'm on your side with that one too. I have the Bills winning, but I.

00:18:18
Speaker 3: Am everything this week unless you take the Texans.

00:18:21
Speaker 1: We'll see We'll see the Rams Eagles. I have the Eagles covering the six points. You're staying away. Oh, you basically agree with me.

00:18:29
Speaker 2: There, I agree with you.

00:18:30
Speaker 3: I just to be different somewhere.

00:18:32
Speaker 1: We're both taking the Lions and Texans chief We're probably just stepping into it both taking the Texans on the Divisional round weekend against the Chiefs.

00:18:40
Speaker 2: What could go wrong? Let's get out of here.

00:18:43
Speaker 1: We only have two more of these the rest of the season, but we will be back.

00:18:49
Speaker 3: What are you gonna do with all your extra time?

00:18:50
Speaker 1: I don't know, but we don't have it yet because we're actually going to be back on Saturday night recapping h those two Divisional Round games. Jordan Rodrigue of the Athletic will be joining me for that show.

00:19:01
Speaker 2: And yes, when we're playing games.

00:19:06
Speaker 1: That are gonna be remembered like for the rest of the time, when Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are like creating six unfortunate months of legacy talk, you know football is back back Saturday