Late-Round Perspectives: Matt Waldman Returns

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Matt Waldman has been a Football Guys senior staff writer since two thousand and nine. He's written the insanely detailed Rookie Scouting Portfolio since two thousand and six. He's a musician, he comes up with great analogies, and he's the first ever repeat Perspectives guest. These are his Late Round Perspectives. Yeah, man, I realize today you are the first repeat Late Round Perspectives guest. Oh way, Yeah, I've done you know, I've done you know, other shows on the Late Round podcast because within the feed you get the regular solo show that I do and whatnot, and then you also get this Perspective's episode. And I've had folks, you know, Harmon comes on to talk wide receivers and stuff like that each year during the draft time. But Perspectives is sort of this different entity of like we're not specifically just talking about wide receivers. We're not specifically talking about one topic. And I I I think I knew, but I like fully realized. I'm like, oh, Waldman is the first one. Because we had our our meet up if you will, last year where we got to, you know, do the little film versus analytics talk and discussion and you know obviously dig into that class. But yeah, you're you're you're the first one that's returning.

00:01:22
Speaker 2: Well, I'm honored, I'm glad. I'm glad I made it back. I made the cut. And we can, uh, we can have a good time talking about this class for sure, because I certainly I know that a lot of people that that follow what I do and follow what you do had a lot of good feedback for us getting a chance to talk and talk things over and it was just a lot of fun. You know.

00:01:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's great, it's great.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: And I also I have to give you the yearly note that you are a sick human being for putting together the rookie scouting portfolio the way that you do well. Like I said it last year, I'll say it again, Like there aren't a ton of prospers guides out there in general, or you know, rookie guides out there in general, but a lot of them that are out there, they generally will take like the top twenty or so guys at each position and kind of dig in. You know, you you have like the Bruglers of the word world doing the beast and stuff like that. And so he's certainly not part of this this group, and so I do it. You know, I look at running all every running back and wide receiver that was at the combine. So like this year in the layer in the lay round prospect that I had eighty running back and wide receiver profiles, which is not a little amount to put together. And then every year I look at your RSP and I'm like, this guy has a more of an illness, a deeper illness than than I could ever even dream of. It's crazy how much stuff is in there. Man, So props to you, congratulations on finishing yet another RSP.

00:02:45
Speaker 2: I appreciate it. But you know, I've enjoyed reading your guide as well. It's been fun. It's well written, it's got great sets of humor, and it's just a very good way of being able to, you know, frame stories and tell stories in the way that you do. You're a good writer, and it's fun to be able to. You know, it's a fun and informative read. And I think that that's that that's great because a lot of this information can be very dry.

00:03:07
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:03:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'll tell you what, especially when I'm when I'm doing this from like an analytics perspective. I mean, I mean regardless of the perspective that you're really coming at it from. When you get to some of the lower tiered players, it is a monotonous thing that you're going through, right because it's just like you're trying to find like you don't want to be a jerk either, you know, we're not doing this from the perspective of like we're better than them at football or we know you know. It's I've always said, have you ever had that like sort of dissonance of like, you know, you're evaluating these players and you're saying negative things about them, and you know, obviously about their not about them as humans, but about their their skill set and such.

00:03:47
Speaker 3: Does that ever bother you to a degree?

00:03:49
Speaker 2: It's it's hard because you want to frame it and sometimes you want to have a sense of humor about it, like somebody with somebody like Kyle McCord, where I would joke that his his pension for his pensiant for throwing targets, you know, throwing you know, two targets that are really well covered and then doubling down in that, you know, and I joke around that I would nickname him hold my Beer is kind of a you know, I mean, you feel bad a little bit, but you want the sense of humor, but you also try and phrase it to people and say, listen to the beginning of this. I have all the respect these guys are in the nine. You know, they're the best. They're the best of the best. So you know, when I say some of this stuff, it's not an attack on them. And most of the time I'm trying to explain if he can fix this, he could be really good. These are some things that are really good. Here's some things that aren't. And I'm going to pick on him a little bit, but I mean him in good natured I mean, look, I got an email from Xavier Gillery's mother yesterday and it was a very kind email. And our xavior Guillery isn't anywhere in my top twenty five wide receivers, and there's some things that I really liked about him, but it was it was very kind. So you see that like family members can do that. And I once did a I think I once went all over CJ Precise on video with a guest saying, this guy really needs work in these areas, and I got an email from from his brother about a week later, he said, CJ took your tape to the Notre Dame running back coach and said, what I think some of this is valid? What do you think? And the running back coach said everything in there is one hundred percent right. And I would suggest if you want to follow up with him, maybe he can maybe you know, you might be able to see if he knows a running back coach or if there's anything like that. And I happen to know a running back coach who worked with people, and he worked with CJ precise before the drafts.

00:05:40
Speaker 3: That's amazing.

00:05:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, if players can approach it from the standpoint of you have a trusted source, you have someone who obviously knows what they're doing, and they can take that constructive criticism. You know, it's not like you're some random dude on Reddit who's just screaming into the void, you know, and yeah saying that.

00:05:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to balance that. And sometimes there's times I look at stuff and go, okay, I might be being too mean here, and I tampa back. But most of the time I tried to say to people, look, yeah we got a little laugh and yuck yuck about it. But I'm sure people can joke about me and got Matt Walton. We can't get him on a podcast for more than, you know, for thirty minutes, because it's going to probably go over by sixty.

00:06:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I'm all for that. I'm all for that.

00:06:21
Speaker 1: Like I was thinking, like I have like Corey Kiner was one of the guys, one of the backs. It was at the at the combine, and one of the things that like I don't care at all about like hand size or anything like that at running back or what have you. You know, if they can catch, they can catch. But he had I don't know if you really if you saw this, but he had sub eight inch hands right at the combine, and I couldn't. I was writing his profile and I like started out the profile and the guy I was like, you know, he has this blah blah blah, but he also has the sub eight inch hands. And then I wrote another paragraph and then I just went back. I said, I just can't get over the hand side because it's just like it's just so ungodly small. It was the smallest hands, right, I think it was the second smallest hand of a player at the combine that we had ever seen. Yeah, and it's it's just a weird, just a weird you know. I'm not like, I hope he has a great career, right, It's just it was just a funny thing that it is.

00:07:11
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't help but think of the little mittens every time when you mentioned about it, you know. But at the same time, like it's almost like you think of things like, oh, if he plays further up further north in Ohio, they might might get him your kids mittens and it might do the trick, you know. But at the same time, he is a tough runner, he's very physical, and you know, and you look at all that and it's you know, it's the same thing like you play some of the some of that stuff's just too funny and then you and they've heard it like Rock Party. You know, I worked with Will Hewlett his Rock Party, Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardsson's quarterback coach, and I've provided Scott and reports pre draft for them to all those guys. And when I did that for Party, you know, Party was my six ranked quarterback. He had a he had a grade that was comparable to a lot of the quarterbacks in this class who could be starters down the line. And I said, in a right environment, he could become a starter, and and so, but I asked Will about Purdy and he said, Purty. The first thing he said when we sat down to meet, he said, he said, I want you to be ruthless about what it is that I need to do better. Don't hold back. I don't need, I don't need to be stroked about how good I am because I know I'm not nearly good enough right now to be where I want to be, and just lay it on me, you know. And you know, so it's you know that most players have that mentality as long as you're not as long as you're not being an ass to them, you know, it's okay.

00:08:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's hard to imagine a player getting to where they are to be invited to the NFL combine and not being able to have that kind of thick skin and understanding that they're not going to be flawless players.

00:08:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Yeah, if you're given constructive criticism but you pick on it a little bit, I'm sure. I'm sure coaches do this same thing and players.

00:09:02
Speaker 3: That's a really good point.

00:09:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're getting ringed out anyway by the coaches, way more than they are by a fantasy football.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean I when I used to play music, I had a teacher who used to play with guys like Sinatra and all these like big time jazz musicians and pop musicians, and he was he he learned in that environment where you go to clubs on the South side of Chicago and they like they basically play you off the stage and humiliate you, you know, And so he would we'd have these small group classes where you'd play a song and then like and then basically like he'd critique it. And I remember he one time I was in a group and the drummer played something that was off and it threw everybody off, and I was soloing during it, and I remember like at the end of it, like everyone was always scared to death, like playing with it, you know, and he go, okay, he let's play over that part again, and the guy kind of screwed it up again, so then he goes okay. He starts getting drummers from everywhere in the class to play it, and then they are done, and he goes, if I were the if I were running this gig. You're fired, You're fired, You're fired. I'd keep you on the gig for another week until we got to the next town where there was some decent drummers, and then you'd be fired. You'd be fired, he goes, you. I'd probably keep but I'd probably yell at you for what you just did. What you did here, you know, and you're just like, oh god, you know so, And I laughed. It is the only compliment I ever gotten that that thing was like, he goes, the saxophone player had better time than you did. He goes, he's the thing. He's the one who put everything back on track. Maybe we should get teach him how to play drums, you know. I was just like, oh my god, you know so. Yeah, And I'm sure that that, you know, I'm sure the University of Miami a football team at that time back in the late eighties, Jimmy Johnson was probably a lot harsher than this guy was.

00:10:45
Speaker 3: That's yeah, yeah, one percent.

00:10:48
Speaker 1: You know, like I said, you you just finished your RSP published April first, Yes, that's the yeah, And so it's out there for anyone who should wants to.

00:10:58
Speaker 3: But you should check it out.

00:10:59
Speaker 1: For sure, But but I wanted to ask you, like one of the things that I really appreciate about it, you know, and I don't have the benefit of doing this because of the way that like my prospect model is kind of constructed and that I do, uh, you know, I have draft capitalist part of it, because I'm trying to predict fantasy football at the end of the day. I think that you do a little bit more from from the I mean, you do a lot more from the perspective of, you know, is this guy just generally like good or not? Or as I'm approaching it, from the perspective of does this player sort of fit what works.

00:11:28
Speaker 3: In fantasy football?

00:11:29
Speaker 2: You know?

00:11:30
Speaker 1: And and I would I I say that because I appreciate that, especially in the pre draft RSP you're not afraid to, you know, just tell it how it is or tell it how you see it, right, And so for instance, and we'll get to this player in a second, but for instance, you have TODJ. Brooks as your RB three and these rankings right pre draft, but clearly you know TODJ. Broke, Like you can look at any sort of consensus or NFL mock draft database wherever you want to look and he's more than likely to be a Day three maybe maybe u DFA, but let's just say, you know, because it's such a good class, but let's just say that he's a Day three guy. So my question to you, you know, obviously you're trying to help from a fantasy football perspective, and we know there's going to be a correlation between where guys get drafted and you know how strong they're going to be. So how do you look at you know, these players pre draft and then you see them post drafts? So Taj Brooks, let's just use them as the example, because I think it's easiest to just go forward with an example. But let's say that Brooks, you know, goes round six, right, and you have him as the RB three. How do you then adjust and look at that from pre to post draft.

00:12:36
Speaker 2: Sure, and for folks who may may not be aware, what I part of my service of what I offer for twenty one ninety five is the pre draft that we've been talking about, the pre draft publication, and then I come out with a post draft publication no later than seven days from the last day of the draft. And what's in there is a reranking based on player fit. I give you a cheat sheet that had as those re rankings, and I look at ADP versus my pre draft ranking or my post draft ranking and kind of give you a sweet spot. So if I said, if I'm still like say, I like Nick Chubb better than Sakwan Barkley coming out, that was one of the things that I was known for, So I would you know, I looked at that and said, oh, he's going to Cleveland. I have a good offensive line, Carlos Hyde, Yeah, okay, whatever, good back, but Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb, I still believe in. It's a little bit, a little bit better than carl Yeah, yeah, a little bit better. But at the time he was playing special returning punts and you know, they thought he was old Frank Gore with bad knees. And so I looked at that and said, Okay, ADP says, you probably you can probably get him to the beginning in the middle of the third round. But the but my value of him is he's running back one in terms of talent. I still am not backing down from that one. And so I said, you can get him at pick twenty five to pick thirty, And I gave like a sweet spot range that says here's where you can get him. So all of that you get, you get that later. It's not as big as the RSP. It's more of like a hundred pages and gives you strategy. Only one hundred page I've got. It's a template now so it's easier to write into. But anyway, there's that. So how I just I mean, draft capital absolutely matters in the standpoint of how teams use there. They want to double down on their investment. They want to give their investment all the opportunities to earn what they think they deserve, which is those opportunities to grow and develop. So you know, I think Jordan Rodrig calls it pretty pick privilege or something like that, or early pick privilege, and I've always been a believer in that. Ryan Riddle kind of talked about that concept way back in the day. Bleacher reporter, former NFL player, that's we're good friends, and he always reference him. But you look at that and you say, Okay, if there are a Day three prospect, most likely it's at the very best, there's gonna they're gonna need one, if not two players to get injured and be out for extended period of time for him to even get a chance to just compete for that, he may not even make an active roster spot if it's like you know, round six, round seven or UDFA. So at that point, I mean, I'm going to knock them down significantly on my board post draft and likely say or if the running back class is weak or other classes are weak, I might still have him higher than some people just because I like, you know, I like the talent, but I'm I'm more of a believer that based on fit with the scheme. Are they a gap scheme runner going to a zone scheme and never had experience with that? Are they in a loaded depth chart? What are the contract lengths for the players ahead of them? I even like provide all of that information for people so that they see, here's what I think of the players ahead of this guy, how much time they have left and you know, and what that's going to and how that can potentially fit. So usually that means, you know, a guy like Lad McConkie last year is a good example. Like and Marvin Harrison, they're good examples. I had Marvin Harrison wide receiver too pre draft. I think I had Lad McConkie somewhere between seven and ten. But when Lad McConkie went to the Chargers and he was with the Ravens, you know, former Ravens coordinator who was the forty nine Ers had Michael Crabtree. And I saw that they lead their offense through their slot receiver, and you look at the receivers they had. I'm like, okay, I'm all in on mconkee. He's a top fifteen player in redraft at the not fifteen, the top fifteen receiver. And with Harrison, I looked at Kyler Murray and I'm infamous for kind of making fun of Kyler Murray a lot, so and I looked at that and said, no, I know where Harrison's weaknesses are with his hands and how he attacks the ball, and Murray's not going to be the one that's gonna it's not going to be a good combination. And he doesn't feed his receivers multiple receivers well enough. It's either one or nobody too often, and so at that point you kind of adjust. I look at the histories of all that stuff. So there's a lot of factors that go into it. But absolutely, you look at Taj Brooks, and you know that, I'll joke around that I like, uh, I seem to like running backs with the last name Brooks, you know, Kennedy ToJ Christopher. They're they're gonna be my sleepers for some reason. I like Brooks. But the but the the thing is is that they're with with Brooks if he's if he's like a round five guy in the NFL and there's not and the guy has like a year left, I may not drop him as far down as people would expect. If he's an undrafted free agent and there was a and he's gonna have to compete with a guy with earlier draft capital who I thought was talented, you know, like not like c Json. Was it Isaiah Spiller, Like he was behind a guy like Isaiah Spiller. I'd go forget it. I'm taking the chance. But if but if it's somebody else that I liked, then I might be looking at that and going, we're gonna have to wait and see. So for what I always recommend to people who are a subscriber to the RSP is if your fantasy player, you're gonna like the post draft a lot more right away. It's to the point it tells you what you need to know, where to draft, gives you strategic points. But you're going to find out as a dynasty player most often that you're going to refer into the pre draft for the next two three years because when somebody does emerge that everybody goes, wait a minute, nobody, I don't even know who this guy is. Let me read him at or you read something where the guy failed early and you go, oh, well, Matt said, if he lands in a gap scheme, you know he could be good. Like Oli Gordon would be a good example this year. Oli Gordon, I don't think knows how to run his own very well, and he's not a very good between the tackles guy. But you get him in space or you give him one decision and block it upright, and you know, all that physical ability can shine through for what he does well. So if he lands on like the forty nine ers after like two stops somewhere else and gets cut and you know, and Kyle's asked for for Palpatam up at the top of the of the stadium, there is Dad, Daddy Shanahan. You know, if this is okay to do? You know, I'm kidding, but you know, to do that, then you know they might bring an Allie Gordon. You go, Okay, now I see where that would be a good opportunity.

00:19:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that there is a lot of value that is still kind of like untapped and unseen by a lot of like redraft and season long fanatics, which is the majority of people who play fantasy football obviously, but there's still like a big gap between them understanding that you know, this this rookie information and consuming it this time of year slash. Just having that sort of backbone can be so valuable when you were in the middle of Week nine and crazy things are happening and then all of a sudden, like I always go back to Aaron Jones because I love Daron Jones coming out. This is kind of like when I was first kind of getting more into into prospecting and stuff like that, and you know, unbelievable production profile.

00:19:59
Speaker 3: He checked really every box. You just I think a lot of the.

00:20:01
Speaker 1: Reason that he probably dropped was the program strength and smaller school stuff and what have you. But regardless, I didn't think Jamal Williams was that bad of a prospect either, But you know, you go back to that and I referenced this actually like last week on the show. But you go back to that Thursday night game and time Montgomery goes down and Jamal Williams goes down, and then all of a sudden, you're at your RB three and I'm sitting there.

00:20:21
Speaker 3: I remember tweeting just out of just my pants were off. I was so excited.

00:20:25
Speaker 1: You know, Aaron Jones is gonna get an opportunity, and you know he didn't necessarily like blow up, blow up his rookie year, but you could see flashes that he was going to be, you know, a good player. And so having that like backbone just allows you to be a lot quicker than the rest of your league mates when making these decisions. And that's why you know, again you're Todd Brooks ranking. You know, you're like, I totally understand the utility and how you can use that and how you can.

00:20:50
Speaker 3: Deploy that then with your own leagues.

00:20:52
Speaker 1: Because you now know you don't have that, you can still look at ADP and still like, you know, draft off of ADP to a degree, but then know that you can reach a little bit for TAJ books because Waldman said that you should reach a little bit for Tagrapher.

00:21:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like you know, Isaiah Pacheco is an example of a guy I liked more than other people, probably you as well. And then, like I can go as far back before I even started writing this, I remember being in the league where I traded away Chris Warren. I had a good team. I traded away Chris Warren, and I had picked up this guy. I drafted this guy late by the name of Fred Lane, a UDFA out of out of Lane College for the Carolina Panthers, and Tim biaka Patuca went down. Some of you listening to probably don't even know who any of these guys are, but but I remember, like I was, I had Corey Dillon and rookie Corey Dillon, who I knew was I really liked, and I had I had Fred Lane. But I got desperate because I was like thinking, I need to keep on my pace. So I traded away Corey Dillon for Chris Warren, and my friend won that league. And because Chris Warren basically ran for two hundred seventy eight yards I think in that rookie year in one game, and I had four shots with Frett, five shots in a row from Fred Lane, in the end zone for me to get to that game, and I lost by a yard. You know. But like the thing is is, I just gave you two rookies from various ranges who were very impactful, you know, in this league. And I realized there it's like, okay, well, Corey Dillon didn't really get going until about halfway through the season, and Fred Lane nobody even heard of, you know. And and he's the only reason I got in the playoffs with that team because I traded away, you know, because of what I because Chris Warren got hurt and then didn't play well. So you know, those type you can be pre The thing about rookies is that the more you know, you can be preemptive, rather than you have to wait to bid so much money, you can go, oh, this guy's going down. Nobody's talking about that. This kid, My kid is shot. I have two roster spots available. I use one of them on this guy, and if not, I'll just toss them back if it doesn't work out.

00:23:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So okay, let's get into these players a little bit. This running back class, I think consensus agrees that it's unbelievably good. How would you rank this one. I mean, you don't have to give like a hardcore ranking, but where would you sort of place this amongst other classes, since you know over the last fifteen years or so, like, is this twenty seventeen all over it?

00:23:22
Speaker 2: Like?

00:23:23
Speaker 3: Is this is this gonna be? Are we going to see results that are that good or even better?

00:23:26
Speaker 2: I think there's potential for that. But if I'd say that turned out to be an A plus class, let's go ahead and say this is a B to B plus class. And I know that some people would go, well, I hear all this great stuff, But you know, you look at the running backs and you're looking at the where I have them graded. I see that this is a class where we could find you know, if three or four players turn out to be as good as people think they are, it will be an A B plus to A minus class for sure. If we get five or six, now we're talking twenty s seventeen territory, most likely what's gonna happen is there are gonna be six to seven. There could be six to seven backs in his class who have one to three thousand yard seasons. But I wouldn't be shocked if three to four of those seven are like tim high Tower, where you like, you know, it's like year three, he's an eight hundred nine hundred thousand yard player. Year five somewhere in a new town, somebody gets hurt and now he does this. Latavius Murray suddenly, like year eight he does something something really good. Or we get a justin Forcett who shows up and lands on the Baltimore Ravens and Ray Rice is suspended and now suddenly, you know, now he's an eleven hundred yard back. Or Chester Taylor. It's like, I think we're gonna have a lot of backs like that. The problem is is and you're also gonna and part of it too is I think we're gonna see in round five and round six a lot of guys get drafted, and it'll be that Jamal Williams Aaron Jones scenario where they draft like I hope this doesn't happen because I like it and Martinez. But say they draft Damian Martinez in round five and then they follow up in round you know, in round six, and get a guy like let's just say Taj Brooks, you know, and now you're like, let them compete and see what happens, and now one of them gets the opportunity, the other one ends up shipped off on a practice squad somewhere else, and they're labeled just a special teams guy until people get hurt and they don't know what they have in them.

00:25:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, things always look way cleaner pre draft than they do post draft, you know all the time. I mean, you're gonna get a team that drafts one of the probably a day two back that we didn't expect them to draft a day two back because it happens pretty much every year, so it makes sense that we could see something like that go down. So I know that both of us are not like big, big rankings people for various reasons. You spell that out in detail in the RSP, you know, talking about different archetypes and different types of players.

00:25:57
Speaker 3: That it's it's a really weird thing to do.

00:25:59
Speaker 1: When you do sit down and do it and think about it, It's like, how am I ranking Lad McConkie versus Mike Evans or whatever. You know, It's like it's a really weird thing at the end of the day, just because they're not gonna score points and do things the same way. Let alone doing that, you know, from a prospecting perspective, where we're really just looking at them as talents, not even necessarily like we know how many Fantasy points they're scoring, and like what environment they're in, all that kind of stuff. So I don't wanna, you know, have people listen to this and think that I'm approaching this from a this is your set and stone ranking versus this is the ranking that the consensus feels right now, because I don't think that's a really helpful thing to do. Instead, I'm gonna just generalize, right and I'm gonna say, Okay, you seem to be a little.

00:26:43
Speaker 3: Bit higher on this player. What is it that you like about this player?

00:26:46
Speaker 1: And then I'll give you some analytical stuff about that guy, and I basically to ask you questions to see if some of the analytics back what you're seeing with these guys. So I'm gonna start things off at running back. We'll start with Quincheawn Judkins, your RB two. We could talk about ASH for years, you know, of course, but you know most will have met at RB one, but with Quinn Shawn Judkins, you haven't at RB two. I don't think it's like a flaming hot take or anything like that. Like, he's obviously a good player. My analytical pushback, if you will, is that he didn't have the best overall receiving profile that I've seen.

00:27:19
Speaker 3: I think that you you know, and I also want to.

00:27:22
Speaker 1: Ask you this because I brought this up a lot on the show too, with because this will be a general thing that we can kind of go back to and talk about throughout all the running backs, but when it comes to pass catching a running back and like how it translates to fantasy football in particular, I've always kind of like high level categorize these guys as you're elite at that trade and that skill, like you're a Christian McCaffrey type player, you're Bejon Robinson, Engineer Gibbs, or you're just a very very bad player at that Like you're not going to be used in that way at all at the NFL level. And then there's this middle ground, right, and that middle ground has a really wide range of types of players. But you're gonna get players from maybe a Judkins or like a Jonathan Taylor to Kenneth Walker, you know, like players who can do these things but maybe don't display the traits that will make them a fifteen to sixteen percent target share player at the NFL level. And so with Quinn Chown Judkins, you know, I have the metric breakout score, which is basically age in program adjusted receiving production because my running back model no longer even uses running back or rushing metrics, which is also just kind of weird and wild.

00:28:29
Speaker 3: But you know, his.

00:28:30
Speaker 1: Breakout score was a little bit below average. His best season in reception share, which is predictive, especially in the first few rounds of the draft, was only eight point six percent. Now he's getting boosted by teammate scorer. You know, he played with good guys, even at Ole Miss. I mean he played with with quality running back evispect Yeah, yeah, yeah, Zach Evans was decent, and then and then obviously Trayvon Henderson now you know at Ohio State. So I understand the like the the the kind of brushing off the receiving production to a degree. You know, I've kind of looked at it as if you look at him from like a usage projection in the NFL, it could be a Jonathan Taylor type situation where you're and I'm not saying he's that player. I just mean just straight up usage, you know, lots of early down work, good goal line work, and then maybe not like a plus as a receiver, but enough of these easy looks out in space that he can at least do something with the ball in his hands. Is that an improper way or is that how you view him? And then do you just like him that much more than as a rusher, a pure rusher and that's why you have him currently as your rbto.

00:29:32
Speaker 2: It's a great question, I think to start with. I mean, when I look at when the way I score players is really a lot of it is is how there's a what Because there's a wide range of what a running back can be, then what I'm looking for is who does things in the variety of combinations the best, so you can I think my scoring system has done pretty good job of identifying that the Jamier Gibbs is really good and also identifying that a Nick Chubb is really good, you know, and they're very different effects. But so the thing for me is that when I look at Junkins, his profile of what appeals to teams is both broad and deep in talent, and so from a receiver standpoint. I like, how you know you gave it a simple like, here's how I look at it in a similar way, Like to me, like all those guys you mentioned in Austin ecler guys who can run wide receiver routes and have the athletic ability to beat linebackers and safeties and occasionally maybe even a cornerback on certain routes and can win in the vertical game against some of those defenders. They're special. They're the top end. Then you've got guys who can win one on one on like angle routes, Texas routes, things like that where you're angling out from the back field and cutting back in or outside. And you know, a Jonathan Taylor is a good example of a player who can do that when used as such. But you know, and and then you have guys who maybe they don't win one on one, but they're good leak receivers, like James Connor is a good leak receiver. Yeah, you know you're gonna he's gonna get the little little shovel passes, screens, little flat routes in space RPO occasionally and they can do that. And I see Quinn Shawn Jenkins as being that kind of guy. He he does have some technique flaws with catching the ball that just need to be cleaned up, but the top wide receivers have the same flaws, so there are things that he's got to But I've seen him run angle routes against one on one against linebackers at Ohio State and Ole Miss and go, Okay, this guy actually has a feel for how to beat someone one on one and efficiently and with the right kind of movement and win the ball and be able to like I've seen him earn the ball, take hits, do it in tight coverage, extend and win targets that are difficult. But he just sometimes drops the ball. So when I look at that, I go, yeah, he's probably a be back in an a bac B back thing, the bigger guy. But if called upon to be the main back, I think he has enough of the explosion, enough of the vision and understanding of how to create within different schemes, and just enough receiving skill to end up being like a not in style, but like a James Connor type of back. Who you go, Okay, maybe he's never a top five back, you know, or that's maybe one good season like that, but he top fifteen running back for several years. I think the potential's there for him.

00:32:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, there seems to be to me a decent amount of like safety with Judkins as a player, you know, from a forecasting perspective, Whereas you know, there's when you have more of a a spet type or someone like a I don't want to say Travion Henderson.

00:33:04
Speaker 3: I think that's probably a little bit too far. But even like a you know, when you're looking at like Brishard.

00:33:08
Speaker 1: Smith or something, you know where it's like you have this one lane that you're kind of needing to go down and go in and if you don't hit that lane when you get to the NFL, there's going to be problems in terms of you finding the field and getting production. Whereas there's at least multiple outs for Judkins, right, there's an out of like he could just be more of an early down guy and get you know, a seven percent target share and okay, he could still be an RB two in certain situations, but there's also still a little bit of that upside of you know, him developing a little bit more as the receiver.

00:33:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I and I even like the Travion Henderson. Even though Henderson is high on most people's boards, and he's high enough on mine that he's a top five back on my board. But the difference between him is a few spots between him and Judkins. And the difference was is that for me, Travion Henderson, if it's blocked right inside, he's going to hit it. And but if things start to go haywire inside, which they often do in the NFL, he has more problems there. But you get him in space and he's very, very good. So the fact that he's top five and a little more limited than Judkins, to me, that means they're in a similar tier. I would well, they're not. I have Judkins a little bit higher, like in the higher tier, but on the low end of that high tier, whereas I think I would say that that Henderson is maybe on the high end of the tier that's lower. Yeah.

00:34:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah. We briefly talked about TODJ.

00:34:30
Speaker 1: Brooks, but I want you to just I mean, like, I don't have a super strong opinion about him, so give me a strong opinion.

00:34:35
Speaker 2: I joke I nicknamed him the lemonade because I think he turns lemon plays in the lemonade because good running backs. Good running backs mitigate losses. You know, when you watch Frank Gore, and he annoyed the hell out of everybody who who was a fantasy GM late in his career because Kenny and Drake got blocked and Marlon matt got blocked. But if you watch their games carefully, you'd see that Frank or was giving them an education on how to press a crease, how to set up defenders into the crease and be able to get yardage where most of the time these guys would lose yardage. And he could do that because he had extraordinary quickness and short area acceleration. And Leveon Bell is another guy who was very good at being patient and had that short area quickness that was fantastic and also that acceleration. And he was even slower at Michigan State because he weighed about fifteen pounds more, you know, at that time. And I was all over both those guys. You know, both those guys I really liked in terms of their skill set. And when I look at TODs Brooks, his ability to press crease is tight and be able to set up defenders into blockers or to be able to avoid unblocked defenders in the backfield and either turn a seven yard loss into a two yard loss or to turn a five yard loss into a fifteen yard gain. He does that well, if not better than anybody in this class. And he can run around you, he can run over you. He and he was faster than I thought he'd be at least at and I went back and double checked, like the miles per hour and different things that I do to track in addition to the forty yard dash. But I thought he's gonna be a four to six guy, not a four or five to two.

00:36:18
Speaker 1: It seemed like a lot of people were surprised that he was able to run as fast as he did.

00:36:22
Speaker 2: Now. He also did the Leveon bell thing, but he was smarter about it. But it makes me laugh because he bristles at the Leveon Bell comparisons, because I think he's just he's young, and he thinks of Leveon bell later in his career off the field. Off Yeah, so he bristles at that. But he did the same Leveon bell thing. He was listened to two thirty at Texas Tech Shows up to the combine fifteen pounds lighter. Yeah, he gained the system well, but he can probably play well at two fifteen. And at the same time when he said I'm more Josh Jacobs, well, to me, Josh Jacobs is the modern day Frank Corps in terms of how you look at the way they play. So Brooks also is a very good receiver, you don't you know? Yeah, at Texas Tech, you're gonna get a lot of opportunities. And he could win down field tracking the ball over his shoulder, winning jump up and through passes that are like back shoulder fades, and he could give you the angle routes and the and the screen passes. And he's just a creative back with excellent processing speed to identify what he needs to do and does it efficiently, but also can do it dynamically would need be. So I've been a fan for about a year and a half two years, and I thought he was one of those guys that might gain a little bit more ground, and just it turned out he never did among the public, and that's the way it goes.

00:37:39
Speaker 1: It could just be this draft class too, I mean, like like, I think that's happening a lot. And we'll get to some more of these guys. I just think it's happening a lot with some of these players, where like there's just so many good, solid prospects where you could see the ceiling. Maybe that's not like super super obvious like Ashton Gent, but you can see a ceiling with these players, and there's just so many of them that someone has to inevitably be ranked lower, you know, like at the end of the day.

00:38:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean running backs are I mean there's guys in the twenties in my ranking below that who still have like grades above eighty on my RSP, which means you're a you're a contributor. You can contribute right off the bat. To me, this is like a casting call in Hollywood for veteran lead actors, you know, and you're sitting in the room and it's like, you know, you could be you could be you know, Sean Penn sitting in the room, but so's you know, cumber Batch, and you know, and you know a bunch of other guys, Keanu Reeves, I mean whatever, and depending on the role you might go. Keanu Reeves would suck in this particular thing. As much as we all love them as a person, but in this particular genre he'd be great, you know, or Michael Fassbender would not be good in that, But if you talked about him as actors, you look at that room and go, how do I choose? And you realize that NFL teams are doing the same thing. They're like they're they're looking at there's there's all lots of talent. I'm Sean Payton, I'm last year going with running backs. You can get late round guys and we'll just let them compete because they're all good to some extent. It's just what are you looking for in that flavor?

00:39:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, one player that I do have probably of the like, I don't want to say higher end, but a guy that a lot of people love and you like you, you seem to like him too. You have him ranked as a top five back right now is Damien Martinez. Where I think of all of the players that are sort of in this range, like like maybe he squeezes into Day two if a lot of running backs go, but you know, probably Day three guy. But he's the one that analytically probably concerns me the most from a pass catching perspective, because you know, he had a a best season five point four percent reception share, which is pretty low. And if you look at from twenty eleven to twenty twenty two, So I want to give players, you know, my database goes back to twenty eleven. I want to give players at least three years of being you know, eligibility. In the NFL, we've had forty four running backs get drafted with best season reception shares below seven percent, and it was a certain parameter in terms of capital.

00:40:00
Speaker 3: But of those forty four.

00:40:02
Speaker 1: Only two of them scored more than thirteen PPR points per game in one of their first three seasons. So my thing is, you know, I've seen a lot of the pros of Martinez as a big bulldozer rusher.

00:40:16
Speaker 3: My concern would be the pass catching. Is it a valid.

00:40:18
Speaker 1: Concern or are you not as worried about that side because he is that good between the tackles.

00:40:23
Speaker 2: Well, I think that if teams are using like modeling like you're using it, there may be a concern because they may just write it off before they even begin. But when you do what but watching the film closely, there's two things that I would give a possible you know, Devil's advocate point of view with this so that we can see because it may turn out the way you're talking. But watching him at Miami, he's not used a lot as a receiver there. When he was I saw excellent hand eye coordination to be able to earn the ball, and there was decent route running there as an underneath league receiver. Nothing that was bad there. But then you go back to Oregon State, and what's different is that at Miami he was the bulldozer who they ran between the tackles a lot. At Oregon State they like to run toss plays and outside zone and you see a lot more of the smooth accelerator that comes into play with his game. Now. What happens, though, is that if your game, if you're rushing offense, is based on perimeter running, when you do play action, oftentimes you're rolling to the opposite side of the field or you're running, you're running back out of the play, So they're not really being featured on the route. They're really the window dressing. And because he was so effective as an outside runner at Oregon State and their main weapon, you know, they wanted the defense just to flock to him so that the quarterback had easy throws. And I think that if there's if it turns out he's a good receiver, we can look back at that and say it was disguised.

00:42:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I like that, you know, Like like I said, like when I'm looking at my prospect the model and I'm writing players up and stuff like that, I never I look at all this from a gray area perspective, with a gray area perspective, right, like, like, this isn't a oh this cannot happen. This is a I want to know the opposite. I want to know why this happened. Why you know the numbers are looking the way that they are because we know that like this is not it is impossible to just capture everything.

00:42:31
Speaker 2: As a mutual friend of ours would say, context matters.

00:42:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, exactly exactly. Speaking of context, I feel like Saveon Williams needs some context because no one knows what position he's going to be playing in the NFL. You you're really high on him from a running back perspective. Is this like a you know, easy low hanging fruit corderial Patterson situation?

00:42:58
Speaker 2: Uh?

00:42:58
Speaker 1: Or you know one of the comps that because I had him as a wide receiver in the in the model, because he went to the combine as a wide receiver. Yeah, and so whenever it looks at COMPS is going to look at other wide receivers, and Jalen Hurd was the was the comp because I mean, yeah, that's that's that's the basically the one player that kind of no one really knew and went Day two and all that kind of stuff. But what do you see, like, how do you see teams deploying him? Because for anyone who doesn't know, like Savian Williams is six', five just a, massive freakish human being who AT tcu was getting a lot of, work like even just straight up in the backfield like as a running back and obviously getting more gadgety stuff as. Well but there was like a legit just running back usage from him there. Too So i'm really curious as to how you view.

00:43:46
Speaker 2: Him. Yeah, WELL i MEAN i had a high grade for him as a receiver, too so SO i originally watched him as a, receiver and then last MONTH i, decided, YEAH i went to great him as a running back as. Well So graham as a, RECEIVER i think it can be a starting outside receive in THE, nfl who who can be very good because he runs decent routes and he's a good pass. Catcher he has some flaws with his, hands but they're Not Quinton johnston like like. That there's various ways you can be flawed with how you attack a, football And Savian williams was didn't have as, many nearly as many. Flaws they're much more, fixable, addressable and he made clutch plays like you know late you, know third, down fourth, down red, zone one on one kind of like had to squeeze that ball in there and make it, difficult and he won those plays a. Lot SO i WAS i was a fan of WHAT i saw from his, Receiver but then you watch him as a runner and you're watching like defensive tackles with twenty yard heads starts coming down the line in pursuit and he's trying to pull through like a wrap from a linebacker and he gets nailed in the side and the line and the defensive tackle just slides right down his leg and. FALLS i, mean like repeatedly seeing him have that contact, balance he's. Huge, yeah, YEAH i Mean Cordero patterson's two thirty, five you, know so when you look at that and you see what he, Did he's one of those guys where you Have Quinn Shaw junkins and you can say he can run, zone he can run, gap he can do a little bit of everything really. Well and then save On williams and, going, well if you put him in an offense where he gets like What cordero, gets which is toss plays and gap, plays just, look this is the. Alley do whatever you can to get into that, alley and don't try and do anything too crazy until you get to the second. Level And williams does. That the crazy thing is That williams is a very good red zone, runner and he's more than just a look, meat just do this one. Thing he really can diagnose well within the scope of what they've asked him to. Do so he's a savvy runner in that. Respect and because he understand and he has good, footwork he understands how to very pace and he can break, tackles and then he's got that open field. ABILITY i can see how a team might look at that and, say you know, what let's figure out a way to use him like we Use Cordo. Patterson except that, hope if If i'm right And Savan williams doesn't have the learning issues That patterson did as a, receiver because my Buddy Russ, landy FORMER Nfl scott, said you, know when he Grated, patterson what they learned when they interviewed him is that he had a very difficult time translating what was on the white board to the. Field so he really needed a lot of study time every week and you had to like give him like very specific set things to do or. Else otherwise he just drowned In North turner's offense because they expected him to calculate all these things that he just couldn't.

00:46:55
Speaker 3: Do but if they're that explains the tenth year breakout.

00:46:58
Speaker 2: Exactly they were, trying you, know they're trying to figure out what to do with. Him and then, finally you, Know Bill belichick was able to give some hints to that And Arthur smith, said let's give, Him let's give him runs that put him in space because, yeah he was the best space RUNNER i ever graded in twenty.

00:47:14
Speaker 3: YEARS i, mean, yeah, yeah.

00:47:18
Speaker 1: All, Right so so two other players that are pretty high in the consensus boards that you're lower on just from a you, know rankings. Perspective but obviously this is the pre draft. Stuff everything we already preface with, Yeah Caleb johnson And amari And. Hampton let's start With Caleb. Johnson my question to you, is do you have like long speed concerns with? Him you, know it's it's interesting because he goes to The combine runs probably a forty that was maybe even a little bit better than some thought that he would. Run but you, know everyone's, like, oh he was a loser at The, combine AND i actually don't totally, disagree only because all of the other running backs ran so, fast, Right so like within the context of, that you, know because his speed, score you, know when you adjust for waiting, stuff actually totally. Fine, yeah is that a concern for? You and then we'll get to Amar In hampton after, that let's just talk abou Kleb.

00:48:05
Speaker 2: Johnn he can he can flip the. Field that's good enough for. Me like if you can get if you can get from the twenty to the twenty or the, forty even the forty to the thirty or something like, that that's good. Enough i'm good with. That that's a big. Play he does that, Fine he's just he for. Me he's a back who could start right now if you needed him to and the grade reflects, that even if the ranking, doesn't it's just that he's better in one scheme than any. Other so it's, like so most likely he'll rise in my rankings post draft because if he landed on a team that was like A kubi X stefanski type of McVeigh type of scheme where you're gonna run a lot of wide, zone that's what he does. Best so but he can run the other. Schemes, okay he just not quite as, strong he's not quite as quick twitch as maybe you would. Want but he's a smooth. Runner he can do everything you're looking. For other than you, KNOW i would say pass protection needs a little bit of. Work probably what dingdam more than anything was pass, protection and that his. Speed you, know for, me speed the point value might be the difference between you, know might be the difference between three to five backs on my, board you, know one, tier you, know but it's but still well within start. Arrange So i'm fine with. HIM i just you, know the speed thing didn't really bother, me especially with outside.

00:49:28
Speaker 3: Zone, yeah and Then amari And.

00:49:31
Speaker 1: HAMPTON i think this is a really interesting case because if you look at running back since twenty eleven who got first round draft. Capital And i'm going to give you a hypothetical to kind of just think through. This, Right we've Had we've had eighteen of them since twenty. Eleven two thirds of those have given us sixteen or MORE ppr points per game in one of their first three. Years it's AN rb one season in one of their first three. Years the guys who didn't were Mark ingram who eventually kind of got, There David wilson who had to retire, Early Rashad penny who's obviously was banged, up couldn't stay, Healthy Josh jacobs who eventually got.

00:50:02
Speaker 3: There he was always AN rb.

00:50:04
Speaker 1: Two it's really just Like Clyde, Edwards hilaire And Sony michelle who were bottom of the first round picks to begin, with you, know and definitely had you, know some some flags. Too but, regardless my question to you is you See hampton a certain. Way you, know based on the ranking and based on you, know you're right up of. Him but my question would be if he does get because there's a lot of steam about him going in round, one, sure and if he goes in round one and then you See judkins go to a decent enough spot mid round? Two does that make you Say i'll Put, Hampton, like Is hampton good enough in your eyes from a talent perspective to jump a player Like? Judkins or are you still more so going to stick to it With judkins just because round two capital obviously still isn't that.

00:50:49
Speaker 2: Bad i'd, say depending on the, team it's plausible that could. HAPPEN i don't know how likely it, will but it's, plausible you. Know with With omari And, HAMPTON i, mean certainly he's got good he has good he's very good top end, speed BUT i would say that his top end speed isn't accessed well enough on a regular enough basis THAT i project it well to go that well in THE, nfl because he needs a long runway to hit that top. Speed LIKE i Think Latavious. Murray How Latavious Murray, like if he gets into the secondary and he didn't have to make anybody miss or break a, tackle he's going to accelerate past those. Guys but if he had to do a lot of work to get, there he's not accelerating. Past and he Also hampton gets jostled a lot in pass pro more than people realize and how that's going to project To LIKE nfl, DEFENDERS i don't think he's going to be quite as strong as a pass protector as people have him down to. Be that, said he's, fine as he's a fine back who can be a good starter in the. LEAGUE i just don't see him with the same level of depth of talent overall as some of the other you, know nine other guys THAT i see on my. List but it's a good. Class but if those nine other guys weren't there based on his, score he could have been running back to just based on the fact that he scored at the level that he. Did so he's a he's a good. Back he'll probably find a decent. Fit they'll probably leverage what he does. Well so if you, know If judkins goes to round three or round, four Then i'd probably be more likely to Give hampton the. Nod if If judkins goes to a good team in the second, Round i'd probably still go With, judkins But hampton will probably move. UP i, Mean hampton would probably move up Beyond Damian martinez If martinez a fifth round. Pick.

00:52:47
Speaker 3: Easily, Yeah, okay that's good to.

00:52:49
Speaker 1: Hear and then you, know you mentioned sort of getting and unlocking that that top end.

00:52:54
Speaker 3: Speed let's talk about base Shall? Teuton who you know watching?

00:52:59
Speaker 1: Him it's it's you can see the speed on tape for, sure and he obviously then ran that fast at the. Combine it's always good to see that pair. Up the crazy thing is that his comps analytically, ranged it was just so. Wide it went From Kenneth walker on the good end To Darrenton, evans you, know on the Other you, know it's just it's just it's to, me he seems like a high upside player and high upside. BACK i just don't know if that'll fully be, unlocked and, Honestly i'm kind of letting.

00:53:30
Speaker 3: Draft capital dictate that to a.

00:53:32
Speaker 1: Degree but you also had a really really interesting nugget in the AN rsb about fumbling and his fumbling issues and what you kind of look for. There so can you talk About tutin and talk about that fumbling stat as?

00:53:43
Speaker 2: Well, YEAH i Mean tutin, CERTAINLY i agree he's got that high upside for, sure the, speed the ability to break. Tackles get him in a gap scheme AND i think he does pretty, well but anything else where he has to make more advanced decisions behind the line of. Scrimmage that's WHERE i have cons earns about him maybe being a little bit slower to, develop but he could get. There it's just but if he. Stalled but if there's a reason he stalls, out it'll either be the decision making where it's just hit or miss sometimes and the. Fumbling because one of one of the things That i've THAT i decided to do after a while WAS i decided the summer was let me look at the past six years of running backs who've entered the league and look at players who fell below the baseline THAT i. Set as as you, know you're a, lot you should be able to be on the field with this fumble, rate you, know and anything lower than that you're not holding on the ball enough well enough to ride the. Ride and so looking at that baseline number and looking at the number of backs in the past six years who and their fantasy, RESULTS i found that if you fell below that baseline, rate that ONLY i think it was only ten percent of the backs scored at a running back two value or, higher and then at and then only three percent scored at a running back and as a top ten running back or. Higher so it's a very Low it was a very low outcome based on that. Group, now WHAT i didn't do and WHAT i probably will, do you, know the next few weeks WHEN i get ready for this fantasy season a little bit, more IS i want to look at the backs who did exceed the, expectation who recovered like A Sony, michelle who who had a horrific fumble rate and while injuries was an, issue his fumble rate was much better in THE. NFL i want to see who who who was able to start from that bad baseline and get. Better AND i would bet anecdotally that they had high scores in THE. Rsp they probably scored above a certain. Threashold so If threat if touton scores above that, threshold and those other guys did, too it might not be as much of a, concern. Right but at the same, TIME i found WHAT i can't say anecdotally That i've seen that. Clearly in, Fact i'm Anecdotally i'd SAY i haven't seen, that So i'd be a little more.

00:56:19
Speaker 1: Concerned, Yeah i'm gonna just go to one more running back BECAUSE i know that you know we're we're talking and, talking AND i, mean, look if you if you want to keep, Going i'll keep.

00:56:28
Speaker 2: Going i'll keep. Going if you want to, go.

00:56:30
Speaker 3: Oh i'll, TALK i will talk all.

00:56:32
Speaker 1: Day, yeah all, right well then let's just get to these guys BECAUSE i think that people will want to hear about. It And i'm REALLY i just want to pick your. Brain Jarquez hunter was probably the go To day three maybe, UNDRAFT i, mean who knows where he, goes but but definitely not day two back that my model.

00:56:49
Speaker 3: Liked are you on the same page With? Hunter?

00:56:52
Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, yeah, like, YEAH i Love Jarka Quez. HUNTER i was surprised he ranked so low for me at twentieth on my, board because that dude has contact, Balance he runs with, authority he has excellent speed and. Quickness he's a he's a. Comp he's one of those players THAT i believe we're going to look back in a few years and and go that was a. Gem that was a gem of a player who you could see it. Coming and he just has some things to work out in his, game BUT i think they're they're. Cable he's kind of the wild card of this. Draft if you ask, me he's like, That he's like that he's that little girl with the curl who's got that got that spunk of the personality where you, go this could go really well or it could go really, bad you. Know but, like BUT i think we're gonna See Jock Quiz hunter turn into a good. Back.

00:57:46
Speaker 1: YEAH i, mean that's like The quintus that is the perfect late round dart throw though in your rookie, drafts, right like that kind of. PLAYER i MEAN i wrote about this in the, guide but but he really he was fifth among amongst all running backs this year's, class and career avoided to ackles per rush ninth and career explosive run rate ninth in career yards after contact per. Attempt he had a breakout, score which is my more proprietary, metric if you, will of ninety three point. Eight so you, know he didn't get, crazy crazy usage as a receiver At, auburn but it looked like when he did get that, opportunity he made some big plays as a pass catcher when he, finally you, know when they did use. Him and it's actually, interesting like it's sort of the way that the model now views like A Kenneth walker, type not that they're the same. PLAYER i just mean from a receiving. Perspective Kenneth walker also had a pretty low reception. Share But walker's breakout, scorer which is again new for this. YEAR i changed it up for to it be more focused on. Receiving walker's breakout score was also above ninety because his receiving yards were just so strong when he did get the. Ball you, know it's just that they weren't giving him the ball that. Much LARGELY i think On walker's end is because he was getting so much work on the. Ground But hunter just seems pretty. Interesting, yeah he'sall.

00:58:59
Speaker 2: Yeah to, me he's like he's in that same body archetype of guys LIKE. Jk dobbins And Khalil. Herbert and he runs good. Routes his hands need a little cleaning, up but again it's not. Insurmountable but you, KNOW i love the. DETERMINATION i love the way that he runs at full. Speed he can't accelerate in the contact and to, me a good running back does that like and not a lot of guys do that. Anymore and At, AUBURN i, mean, listen they their offense is very limited in terms of the range of things that they ask their players to, do which is why probably a lot of people were down on Bow nicks as they saw the disaster that was. There AND i know some scouts who did some work there who were, like they're like bubblescreen bow you, know that was basically what he. Was but when you watch the receivers didn't do many. Favors AND i think this team is kind of like. That auburn's one of those teams, that, LIKE i just wan WHEN i see, THEM i think of like these just like raw athletes who are just like fantastic athletes across the board for that. Team and some of them actually end up being guys That alabama really wanted and they, said, no forget, It i'm never going, there and they and they they're the thorn In alabama's. Side but a lot of them are the guys, that Like alabama was, like, yeah we could get someone more, refined And auburn goes there and they get and they go To auburn And auburn's like got this team of like all, athletes you, know who are great, athletes but the way that they're implemented is a little bit less to be.

01:00:39
Speaker 3: Desired sometimes, yeah yeah it's not it's Not, alabama and from from that, perspective, yeah all, Right SO i need to talk ABOUT Dj giddens. Too so you have him that at THIS.

01:00:49
Speaker 1: Rb thirty, ranking and Again i'm just being loose with, rankings so you have them lower than where consensus generally. IS i have to SAY i, analytically he looks really really interesting in pretty decent like really good, size adjusted speed and a decent enough receiving. Profile you, know there's certain filters that you, KNOW i always preface, this but like Whenever i'm like filtering and saying, like this is the thing THAT i get really annoyed about WHENEVER i see it On twitter when people like go to stat head and they, say, okay find all the players who HIT X y AND z marx and they use the the player that they're trying to prove to be in a certain grouping and. Tier they use that player's, numbers which means everyone else in that query is going to be better than that, player right.

01:01:34
Speaker 3: Right and SO i did that a little bit With, giddins AND i, said.

01:01:36
Speaker 1: Let's have some fun with, numbers and like he ended up being in a group with some really good running, backs and so my question he was like give me the give me the bear. Case And, GIDDINS i know that you wrote a little bit about his. Inconsistencies it seemed like where you could see the, flashes but it wasn't just there.

01:01:50
Speaker 3: Enough is That is that the big thing with?

01:01:52
Speaker 2: Him? YEAH i MEAN i really wanted to Like, Giddins LIKE i watched THE i watched the first game and, said, OH i like where this kid could. BE i, like or can? Happen and it just never got there for. Me and a lot of it is, that you, know right, now he doesn't really press creases deep enough to set up, blocks and a lot of guys who don't have the patience to get within one to two steps of a blocker end up being The Kenyan drakes of the, world you, know where it's like they bounce everything too. Much they become tentative and what they, do and maybe they have a good season because they get set up in a scheme where you know it works, out but they. Don't they don't. Last you. KNOW i think his time speed's a little better than what we routinely see on the, field AND i think that his acceleration just doesn't match his top. Gear the burst is starter caliber BUT i think that you see the way he processes information is a little. Slow maybe that gets, faster BUT i find that when you're working between the, tackles if you don't have a fast process or now it's hard to get. There you, know that WAS. Cj precis's. Problem so he didn't have a really fast process or he had every thing that's going on. There So gins to me is that guy that you know you want to you want to back. To you want players to be thermostats rather than light, switches AND i would say, that you, Know gins game feels more like a light switch and you got to find some duct tape to put over that that that knob so it stays stays on the on. Position he's kind of if it works, out he could be a Faster Melvin, gordon which could be really, good you, know BUT i kind of feel right now he. Doesn't his attack is, pacing how he just finishes in all areas of you, know as a runner just isn't quite. There and his and his, past you, know just Every it was one of those things where like he didn't have one special, thing but he had multiple things where you're, like if he fixes, this if he fixes this and next. Thing you, Know i'm, like he's got ten things to, fix and some of them are, easy and it might get him to a tributor level where he's like a good third down, back or you can put him in as a change of pace and you like what you, See but is he going to get all the way? There AND i just have doubts that he's going to be able to fix all those.

01:04:13
Speaker 3: Things and then the last ONE i want to talk about IS.

01:04:16
Speaker 2: Rj.

01:04:17
Speaker 1: Harvey you, KNOW i don't have like a massive stance on him either. Way the model dings him because he is an older, back AND i sometimes think, that you, know especially when folks are looking at like production and using that as a proxy to evaluate these, guys.

01:04:34
Speaker 3: There's not enough like.

01:04:37
Speaker 1: Weight being put in on the age side because he has extra time to get some. Production you know like that that you have to at least factor that. In but what do you see from him to have him lower? There because some, people Like i've SEEN. Rj harvey as high as LIKE rb four or five in this class from some, people so curious where you're at.

01:04:53
Speaker 2: With, WELL i MEAN i would say this, again it comes down to ball. Security his ball security is on the cusp of. Acceptable so if he had earned a better ball security, score he would have been at least in a rotational starter, tier which is where you, know above eighty percent or eighty points on my score, checklist which is where a lot of these backs that Where i've talked, about Like Caleb Caleb johnson And omari And hampton and guys like that. Are he'd be in that, tier but he's just below that tier because you know he's a Good he's got some decent receiving. Skills, again for the most, part you love The Tarry cohen type of quickness and explosion to his, game and you can see how he makes people. Miss but to, me he's somewhere between Like Tark cohen And Nido smith in terms of what you're looking. For he could, contribute but you know you're not going to get much from as a pass. Protector he takes too many, chances sometimes trying to bounce things outside that won't work as. Well in THE. Nfl it'll work once or twice in the. Preseason people are getting super. Excited it might even work early in the. Season defenses adjust a little bit and they ask him to be more, disciplined and then you're, like can you hold onto the ball a little bit? Better my? Man, like if you can do, This so it's there for the taking for, him but he's got some things to improve in. It the biggest thing is ball. Scared if he does, that maybe you're looking at him as as your third down back or your you, know your space back who can give you big. Plays and he may still do. That, now it's just that you, know is he gonna move beyond that and, say, yeah he was worth being one of the top four or five running backs in his.

01:06:39
Speaker 1: Class, yeah from a comp, perspective on my, end he got he drew a, high high end. COMP i, mean obviously this is from a prospecting, perspective but then we saw what he did last.

01:06:49
Speaker 3: Year but the high end one Was Chase. Brown.

01:06:51
Speaker 1: Wow and Then Jordan todman And anthony McFarlane were the other. Two so, like you, know it's, Like i'm not to where others are With harvey and just kind of a, sure you, Know i'm not really either way with. Them so it's good to hear your take on. That all, right let's get this wide receiver. CLASS i know that we've been chatting a. Lot i'm loving this, though.

01:07:13
Speaker 3: Me, too and, yeah good. GOOD i mean you don't.

01:07:16
Speaker 2: We don't write all this stuff so that we can just sit there and be quiet about. It i'm.

01:07:19
Speaker 3: Saying that's What i'm saying.

01:07:21
Speaker 1: Exactly all, Right let's look at this wide receiver, class, though on a scale from zero to, ten how would you rate.

01:07:27
Speaker 2: This class somewhere between a five and a half and a six and a, Half, okay you know. Where and the reason being is that last year's class was probably more of an eight or, nine and some people might say it was higher than. That BUT i think that what we're seeing Happening i'm noticing with my scoring is that over the past three, years THERE'S i have like the franchise caliber, tier which is Where Jamar chase And Elik neighbors. Belong then you have the starter tier and that's where guys Like elik, were Like Marvin harrison and you, Know lad mcconky belong and a lot of guys were in that starter tier last. Year but then there's this contributor, tier which is basically there's the contributor and the rotational starter. Tiers those are the tiers where you get these guys who in two or three years you think maybe they can grow enough to become a starter or a high end contributor on AN nfl team that might have fantasy. Value that tier is like the big center of The bell, curve, Okay and it seems to be growing more and more each year for me over the past three, years it's expanding more now, proportionately the higher tiers are getting a little bit larger, too but they're they're proportionate to The bell, curve you, know in terms of how that's. Going and What i'm noticing Is i'm my theory beyond, that isn't That i'm scoring any? Differently CAN i?

01:08:52
Speaker 3: CAN i? CAN i give you my WHAT i think it?

01:08:54
Speaker 2: Is? Ye is?

01:08:56
Speaker 3: It is?

01:08:56
Speaker 2: It?

01:08:57
Speaker 3: Age is?

01:08:57
Speaker 1: It is it experience with these wide receivers and them sticking around a little bit, longer maybe learning the game a little bit. More and then from your, perspective you're viewing them and watching them as they, are and they're maybe not as inexperienced as they otherwise would.

01:09:12
Speaker 2: Be that that may be part of. It it very well may well be part of. It and part of what you mentioned is probably Where i'm going to expand a little bit more is that because of more seven on seven, football more flag, football more coaches at the position who these guys get access to early, on because now the college game is a professional environment in terms of. Money now you can afford to pay some of these, coaches and in high school maybe you can get some of these guys and you. Start so these guys come in or in THE, nfl they know more techniques about how to release from the line of, scrimmage no more techniques about how to run. Routes the thing is is that they know enough that they've got more tools in their. Toolbox and When i'm, Scoring i'm, going, Well i'm seeing, That i'm seeing, This i'm seeing, that and so they're getting they're getting some value in my evaluation that they know the technique and sometimes perform it reasonably well enough to get. Results but they're not quite but The but they're also showing like they're like the young carpenter who gets the toolbox and he's got the brand new tool set that like maybe his dad bought him or, something you, know and then he comes to the job site and he doesn't know how to use any of those, tools and there's some old man there who looks like he's about to keel, over but he can use a hammer like six different ways that you've never even heard. Of and he's getting and you're, like you're sore that by the end of the, day and he looks like he barely made the effort and he's just like doing. Stuff you're, like this should be on, YouTube like, somewhere you. Know and so that's what happens in the league IS i think what's happening is that the NOW i have more guys than ever who could be, good but the likelihood of them getting there is low because they don't have any real craft to how they're delivering. It and in order to get to the higher, tiers my criteria says you have to show the craft to win these certain. Things to get into the middle, tiers it shows you have to demonstrate at least a certain number of skilled movements that are used to win these types of. Things SO i think that's the, deal is that the level of the baseline level of skill to be a contributors Has there's more players meeting that, baseline but they're not getting over. That you. Know it's kind of like kids, now like a good. EXAMPLE i used, to you, KNOW i used to work at university In georgia at their business, school AND i would talk to professors and academic counselors and they would. Say she's, like the kids are changing nowadays because of the. Phones and she said the, phone and, SHE'S i know it's gonna sound like old woman shaking your, face but the ability to work together in, groups the soft, skills they're different than what they were generations, before like you're in my generations were they taught soft skills more and now so like these kids know about more than we did based on the sheer volume of, information but the soft skills to write an, email to interact with people, politely to you. Know And i'm not saying all, kids because there's some wonderful kids out there or younger people out there from these generations who were. Fantastic but what she said, Is i'm seeing a rise in people who are not getting above outside that bell, curve who more and more people the social skills aren't strong enough to do what they they're going to need to do to, advance even though they have a higher baseline of.

01:12:48
Speaker 3: Knowledge, yeah, yeah that's really. IT i love. THAT i love that.

01:12:51
Speaker 1: Analogy it's a really good comparison and interesting to think about. Too so let's look at these wide. RECEIVERS i was, very very satisfied Seeing Luthor burden as your wide receiver one Because i'll tell you. What i'll tell you what THE I i even wrote this in the in The Prospect guy this. YEAR i, SAID i if The zap model had a, baby it'd probably name It. Luthor it loves, it Loves Luthor burden like. It LIKE i, MEAN i would, say at least, Analytically and you KNOW i didn't watch like every single season for all of these, players mind, you but, like, Analytically Luthor burdens sophomore season is the best age adjusted season from a production standpoint of any wide receiver in this.

01:13:36
Speaker 3: Class AND i say that pretty. Confidently.

01:13:38
Speaker 1: Now the downside is if you look at the, usage just simply the, usage he was used.

01:13:44
Speaker 3: Basically as like a third Year Wandel.

01:13:46
Speaker 1: Robinson you, know like a lot of manufactured, stuff a lot of, screens a lot of stuff behind the line of, scrimmage a lot of slot.

01:13:52
Speaker 3: Work you, know got, some got.

01:13:54
Speaker 1: Some you, know he wasn't as prolific of a rusher As wandel was as a as a, prospect but he did get that rushing, production which to me is a good, thing not a bad, thing to get the rushing production and. Stuff but the model loves him because the model is not looking at the exact areas that these players are getting. Looks AND i also think that there might be you, know this is me sharing something THAT i haven't fully fleshed out and really talked, through BUT i think there's a from in the analytics. WORLD i think there's a little bit of a overstating of, archetypes you, know the way that like you, know burden is used this, way and that's How Wandel robinson was, Used that's How Rondell moore was, Used that's How Kadarius tony was, used And Paris campbell was, used and therefore that's going to be the way that burden will be used at the next. Level to, ME i see it more so as and this is WHERE i want you to just go nuts with your burden.

01:14:47
Speaker 3: TAKE i see it more.

01:14:49
Speaker 1: As, okay this might create a larger range of outcomes for a player like. Him it does not mean that we need to full on fade the dude because he's just the Next Paris. Camp to, me it's, okay we recognize that this has happened in the past before with some, players but there's also other things, like, Again burden's production in general was way better than most of those, guys maybe aside from From. Robinson but he's also twenty five pounds heavier Than Wandel. Robinson he's got four inches, more you, know he's four inches taller Than Wandel. Robinson and there's to, me, like this is the other THING i have to throw out. THERE i was texting our mutual Friend Matt harmon While i'm running The Prospect, guide AND i always liked WHEN i get the comps of certain, PLAYERS i like to just text him and, say you, know does this make?

01:15:34
Speaker 3: Sense like is this logical for?

01:15:36
Speaker 1: What and The burden comp that came out this is back in Early february Was Brandon, ayuk AND i saw AN rsp AND i saw a reception perception That Brandon ayuk was the guy that you guys were. Referencing And i'm, like this is coming together and making me feel a little bit better about like cause cause Again.

01:15:56
Speaker 2: I've never heard anybody mentioned. Him so that's, great that's.

01:16:00
Speaker 1: Great it was so wild because, again the when you're looking at this stuff from an analytics perspective and analytical perspective and you're finding comps and, such your comps are going to not be so one to one in terms of the exact type of player that you project per, se like like there will be instances where a slot player has a comp that is more perimeter and like barely played the slot in college for, instance, Right or you know you were talking about running backs before you get like a power back versus a guy who's better at.

01:16:32
Speaker 3: Zone in a, zone there's corner.

01:16:33
Speaker 2: There's guys who are who made, it who are the size of a, cornerback and guys who made it who's the size of her defensive. TACKLE i, right, right but what what position has that range of body typing?

01:16:44
Speaker 1: Exactly so like You're i'm getting, Again i'm getting like a why you KNOW Dj moore was, one of, course BECAUSE Dj moore is a very easy like he was, productive he played a lot more on the perimeter that and he didn't have the same kind of usage as As burden, did but very similar, size very similar like overall high level. Production but then The ayuk one came out and then you Had ayuk two And harmon Had ayuk and it's the only LIKE i have not seen The burden To au comp SO i was just Like chef's.

01:17:10
Speaker 3: Kiss this is. UNBELIEVABLE i love. IT i need to hear you talk About Luther beron.

01:17:13
Speaker 2: WELL i laugh WHEN i hear About Wandale. ROBINSON i, mean, like if he's If Luther Burden's Wandale, Robinson I'm John. Coltrane that's BASICALLY i would love that to. HAPPEN i hate it For, burden BUT i would love that to happen for me. Selfishly but when you look At burden's, game you. Know the other thing About Brandon ayuke THAT i find interesting is THAT i don't have numbers to support, this but just from eyeballing, IT i remember Evaluating nayuk and going he runs, slants he runs crossing routes and over, routes and then they do play action deep and screen. Passes it's not much of a, route you. Know he wasn't used a lot that way, exactly but he became one of the better route runners in the. League and WHEN i Watched Luther, burden it was easier than Evaluating nayuk for me because WHEN I i watched, HIM i know that the volume of plays may not have been there for him as a route, Runner but the routes that he did run that were underneath where you required a hard, break they were, sharp they were technically sound when you needed a speed break where they needed to be, flat so a defender who was trailing you couldn't cut off the. Ball they were. Flat you could see. That one of the things that he had that was a very high end skill was down the. Field he could work his way down the field when the quarterback needed to break the play and abandon it and go off. Script and he could bait defenders into one direction and uncover late and the quarterback and him beyond the same. Page these are the types of things That lad mcconkeye did really. Well and when you saw it With Justin herbert last, year there are a few plays where he uncovered in the end zone And herbert already had the ball coming out just as he, Uncovered like that type of communication with a quarterback is really what you. Need and he has that a. Bill so the route running didn't bother. Me the rock running was. Good when they asked him to go work vertical, tracks the ball very, well and then you have what are called jump up and, throughs which are the technique that wide receiver coaches use to talk about when you have a back shoulder player or an underthrown. Ball even not that's. Unintentional most guys that people get really excited about they do these very athletic catches Like George, pickens where they like Some pickens has gotten better at, this but At georgia you would see him like leap late and that meant that he had to extend and open his chest and he's like doing the next he plunge The Odell beckham way back, here and the defender has access to his entire body at the catch point to defend the. Ball and it looks, unbelievable but it gets. You but you're gonna lose in THE nfl doing that more often than, not you want to look like you want to be able to time it early enough that you can attack the ball with a leap that goes straight up in the air and now your back is to the defender and you're boxing them out and having control of the. Ball and the guys who do that well early are, few And Luther burden does that very. Well he's a good. Tracker he doesn't track it, late and that means not only does it mean that he gets catches the ball, undefended he also catches it and can land on his feet and maybe get a little more yardage afterwards and have. Control so, overall good route, runner very strong in all the ways that you, Mentioned and it just was not as often. Seen but when you watch something and you see it happen multiple, times it may only be three or, five but the detail is rich and it's, consistent and it's literally technical things that coaches teach and you see it perform to the. Letter you, Go i've seen. Enough that's enough FOR i know that he knows what he's. Doing you, Know it's like someone who's had public you, know if you've taken any public speaking, classes WHICH i have not, obviously but if you've taken, them and you've had and you've been trained at say Toast, Masters i'm sure you can pick out someone who got trained at Toast masters to be a public speaker and you can see the, techniques and if you, don't you just look at him and, go that guy's just really smooth at How he's just a very good he's got good presence as a, speaker and he's and he's got a good control of what he. Does AND i think that's the thing With, burden is that you only have to see if because of the technically rich details of his, game you don't have to see it all the. Time you just have to see it enough to, go, yeah that's.

01:21:47
Speaker 1: There so you from a projection, standpoint you see him inside out in THE, nfl.

01:21:52
Speaker 3: Or do you think that he'll be more slot in THE.

01:21:55
Speaker 2: NFL i think you can do, Both SO i think. IT i don't think it matters at this. Stage it's just a we'll see where he, lands right for that to. Go the only Thing i've, heard and again this is the stuff that neither you NOR i can really put any stake, in is rumor that he's that he's a bit of a wide receiver in that sense of a, personality which is the risk for all these.

01:22:18
Speaker 3: Guys, Yeah i've.

01:22:19
Speaker 1: Heard i've heard the same, Thing and obviously that's a you, know it's it's something that we should at least have in the back of our, mind especially if he's to, me that's a that's a does does the draft capital reflect? It kind of thing, too you, know is it something that you know teams a lot of teams here and then he falls and falls and. Falls if you look at like mock draft, data he went.

01:22:41
Speaker 3: From you, know say, what say what you but like the.

01:22:44
Speaker 1: The end Of, april mock draft data right before the draft data is actually pretty, predictive you, know versus actual draft. Capital THIS i have not tested Like december Or, november you, know mock. DRAFT i don't have access to, it but it is interesting that burden in Like, december is that timeframe was like pretty locked, in like top twelve ish player in this, draft like going in that, range and now he's slipping out of the first round pretty. Consistently and maybe it's the off the field, stuff or maybe you, know it's people seeing. MORE i don't, know or maybe it's group. THINK i have no, clue but it's at least something to keep an.

01:23:18
Speaker 2: Eye i'll say. This i'll end it with. This you Mentioned Matt. Harmon Fran duffy was talking to, me the Former eagles producer who does all those wonderful film reviews for the, organization and now he's on on his own doing his. Work AND i would recommend people to check out what he's. Doing But fran texted me and, Goes i've seen some of Your Luther burden videos ON x And i've been studying him AND i keep thinking to, myself what the heck are people seeing that they don't think this guy is the? Goods like he, GOES i don't see, it And i'll give you, this and he goes SOMEONE i. WATCHED i wondered what you, thought AND i, said he's probably gonna be my number one wide receiver and he, said. Good, good BECAUSE I i can't understand why what people are seeing that's that's not. There AND i will Give frank credit for. THIS i remember the last time we talked about a receiver like, that he was really high On i'm On Ross Saint. Brown so so you, Know Frank france got a good eye and he understands the. Game and, yeah SO i, think, yeah that's a good one.

01:24:19
Speaker 3: Too love to hear That Travis hunter you have him at. Two.

01:24:24
Speaker 1: Uh you, KNOW i don't necessarily want to get into where he's going to play all that kind OF i just want to talk about him as a receiver BECAUSE i had a really tough time from an analytic, perspective because everybody in the world is on social media right now saying that this is the, best one of the best prospects that they've ever watched. Before and THEN i look at the numbers and the end, like of course they threw a lot At, colorado so he had these Like, gotti you, know, uh junior season numbers like raw totals and stuff like.

01:24:53
Speaker 3: That but the predicted, metrics whether you're.

01:24:56
Speaker 1: Looking at like yards pro out run receiving yards per team pass, attempt and you would just that for age because he didn't have, massive massive production until last. Year you, know when you adjust for all of, that he has an okay enough, profile but like when you compare that to other first round wide, receivers it's more and this is not HOW i would rank him per, se but like it's like fifteenth twentieth percentile, stuff you, know against other first round wide receivers that we've. Seen, now the way That I'm i've explained that away in a way is that you, know he's playing, Too he's playing ninety snaps a. Game he's playing both corner and wide. Out he's in the the corner rooms you know during the week or what have you and not necessarily getting typical, reps you, know at wide. Receivers SO i can't really, like, LIKE i have to recognize this is a very unique.

01:25:40
Speaker 3: Prospect but what do you?

01:25:41
Speaker 1: See do you think that he is as good as other people are saying like THEY'RE i, mean, LIKE i, Mean harmon came out with the reception perception, chart of, course and it's all green and everyone's losing their minds over. It but he'll be the first to say that that's not the end, all you. Know but you, Know i'm just curious if you see him the way that the majority of people see.

01:26:01
Speaker 2: HIM i would, say if there's a player THAT i should have been a little bit more Bearrash, on it would probably be, him because he was on the border of two of a couple of tiers as a route runner and pass catcher in some ways that he could have been lower on my, board, probably BUT i gave. HIM i saw enough THAT i felt like he earned the grade THAT i gave, him which is a franchise. Caliber grady's my number two, guy and it's above, ninety which is a really very good. Score you. Know for, CONTEXT i Think Malik neighbors was like a ninety four ninety. Five you, Know Jamar chase was in that range as. Well you Know Marvin, harrison WHO i wasn't as high on as most, people was still in the, nineties you. Know so it's a good, score but there's there's still things to. Learn he's going to start right away if they use, him if they use him as a receiver. Fully BUT i would say, THIS i think there's he does some incredible job with finding the, ball BUT i think he leaves his feet unnecessarily for targets over his, head which can cause some issues with you, know earning the ball against tight, coverage with getting yards after the catch in AN nfl environment where it's going to be tougher to do. That and THEN i would say he's also someone who has at the line of scrimmage when getting. Pressed you know people love to talk, about, well he's a. Corner he knows what to, do so he's just going to reverse engineer that and he's going to be really. GOOD i see that he doesn't always make the best choices he should and gets pinned to the boundary more often THAN i would expect from a guy who actually knows how to pin people to the, boundary you, know so you, know it's easy to it's easy to be like on one end of the, spectrum and then you now have to do play a different instrument and now you're, like, oh you know, what this instrument's harder THAN i thought it. Was you, know it's got its own. Challenges SO i think for, him, OBVIOUSLY i think he can. PLAY i just think that if there's some, issues is that you, know he has a little bit of suboptimal attack for the ball that can entight, coverage you might not be as, good just like just Like Marvin, harrison who in the wrong environment and they just say we're going to make you a jump ball receiver and now you're dropping passes or not winning the ball and everybody's, like he's not as good as everybody said he was because you're putting in that isolated role that could happen for. Him or if they just, say, yeah we're gonna make You Mikole hardman and you could, say, well, yeah you're putting you, know you're basically putting you, Know Ritz carlton's On Baltic, avenue you, know but you're still but because of the property, value you still can't Charge Ritz carlton. Rates they on where you. Are people aren't showing up to stay in that hotel because the neighborhood, sucks you, Know so that could happen To. Hunter But i'd, say, yes there's a chance he can be as good as people are. Saying i'm not quite, there But i'm not like down on him.

01:29:17
Speaker 1: Either, yeah it's hard to just be, like, no it can't happen when we know he's a special.

01:29:22
Speaker 2: Player, yeah you, know like.

01:29:23
Speaker 1: That that's kind of Where i'm at with with with him. Overall All, RIGHT i got to talk About Matthew. Golden golden is probably the poster child of WHAT i was talking about earlier from a draft rising, perspective where if you look at his charts from Like, december he was like a fifth round pick for. People and then obviously now you, know you had that final month of the season and you, know he Overtook Isaiah bond you, know in that, offense and he was sort of the primary go to, guy you, know down the stretch for. Them from an analytical, perspective we don't see a ton of hits with this kind of production, profile of, course because he didn't do much until the final you, know tail end of that, season and you, know he did a little bit Of, houston but not a, ton especially when you adjust just for age and you, know program strict what have. You BUT i will say one of the analytical comps that popped out for him Was lad, McConkey and so there is at least some of that like potential upside. There you, KNOW i don't want to write him off at all for obvious. Reasons but where are you at With Golden you have him right now at wide receiver.

01:30:24
Speaker 2: Three. YEAH i liked. HIM i liked his route. RUNNING i felt like that he's good at attacking the. Football he makes the type of technically sound plays that you want to see at the catch point and with, breaks he's got very good quickness and body. Control and he reminded me of A lad McConkie type of, Player Jade, reid you, KNOW i mean the same kind of role and. Function AND i think that he can meet, you beat you in multiple ways in multiple. Roles and the thing is is that maybe a player like, him because he's got that, utility the way that they that he, has that he probably didn't get maybe the type of role that would lead to the value that maybe a model would. SHOW i don't know that's, what BUT I i could see how that might. Be the Be the thing with, him you, know is he is he A he's a match up player in my, eyes a guy who you can put one on one and say the ball's coming to, you figure it, out you. Know AND i think that he can do. That AND i think a lot of people are kind of getting scared off of him because they see of Me Cole hardman type and there but again Me Cole, Hardman Mi Cole harmon couldn't catch in in tight coverage or in contested. Situations he was not a sharp route. Runner he was just a very good athlete who could catch the ball reasonably well at the pro, standard but not well enough so to, ME i, think, again that's a that's a poor Comp it's it's it's almost as bad As Luthor burton To Wandale, Robinson.

01:32:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, YEAH i, mean, yeah, yeah the The, HARTMAN i would, agree, LIKE i Think golden's a much but even, analytically even with like the weird production profile and the weird even just we could say, usage because they weren't targeting him at a high.

01:32:17
Speaker 1: Rate you, know he he he looks. BETTER i, Mean hartman was like red flag galore from from AND.

01:32:24
Speaker 2: I don't know about, you but from WHAT i observe Of, texas they seem to be a very you, know high powered football, organization but seems to throw they throw everything up there to see what, sticks because they seem to be a very inconsistent. Offense that was, like this isn't. Working let's overreact to. This let's overreact to. THAT i wonder if that's part of. It and Also Isaiah bond is another GUY i heard who is maybe not has a little bit of that wide receiver diva thing going. On.

01:32:55
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah steve pu And Sam monson were talking About Isaiah, bond who will get to now with off the field issues and And steve mentioned that he is on this The Jermaine burton spectrum in terms of it being potentially that.

01:33:10
Speaker 1: Bad we, know you, know in these, situations it can go. Better players can, change you, know you can your mentality can. Shift but With, burden, obviously With, burton obviously it went the wrong direction last. Year you could argue that's the main reason, why you, know things went the way that they went for. Him but you Have bond right now at wide receiver. Four AND i have to say my prospect that the that model Liked bond because you, KNOW i think that if you look at the production and and from like a raw, perspective doesn't look like that. Fantastic but, again it adjusts for program. Strength that adjusts for. Age sophomore year production is usually pretty. Telling and he when you adjust That alabama production for age and for program, strength like it starts to look a lot. Better and he, also you, know did things in a non typical wide receiver like he was getting rushing work and stuff like, that you, know like getting round type stuff and wasn't just simply playing the wide receiver, position which is a signal of. Talent you, know if a coach is trying to give them the, ball he's probably a good. Playmaker so what do.

01:34:09
Speaker 3: You see With? Bond is he just a field stretcher at the next level or do you think there could be more?

01:34:13
Speaker 2: There, NO i think he's a very good route. Runner, actually he's another one where at the top of his, stems he accelerates into the top of that stem and then breaks back towards the quarterback or across the field with very good route. Technique so he uses that vertical skill like a bully pulpit to be able to dictate his other. Routes and that's something you want to. See on top of, that he can catch a ball over the. Middle he can be a tough receiver in that. Round he has a couple of areas where maybe he clap attacks or doesn't see the ball as well as he, should but they're minor and. Isolated THEN i don't think are going to be massive problems for him. Overall and that acceleration that he has is there's not a receiver in this class who's received who you watch the acceleration with the naked eye and and the first time you look at and, go oh, yeah that's a gear like you, know and and he has. That SO i, think, overall like guys THAT i considered him to, be you, know in the range of like, one someone WHO i didn't really compare him, to BUT i could see how Like Jalen waddle is kind of in that realm Of BUT i, thought T Y, HILTON i, thought you, know the tier he'll never attain is Probably Isaac. Bruce but like guys like, that he's like If Marvin mims actually had like enough wide receiver tools in his toolbox that he knew how to use And Sean payton didn't have to like retrofit him that he might Be Isaiah. Bond, yeah you, know so, yeah If bond can figure it. OUT i, mean, LIKE i Love burton last, year BUT i don't grade off field because he Never. Yeah so and you can see the, flashes like when he's on the field and they and and he's doing what he's supposed to. Do you're, like, oh, YEAH i can see why this kid's. Good but then you also hear the stories and, go, yeah that's you, know let's hope and pray that he grows. Up.

01:36:10
Speaker 1: YEAH i THINK i think draft capital will go a long way For bond because of, that you, know and and and there's a recency bias now With. Burton so if a team does go after and Get, bond then we then we know we will feel a little bit better if he is you, know a round two or late round two and into round three kind of player as opposed to him just falling and falling and. Falling all, Right teed, McMillan he is PRO i, mean now The golden's kind of surging But tet McMillan's been right there with him as as the consensus wide receiver. One you, Know i've had some concerns because people have said that He's Drake. London i've, seen, like in my, Opinion Drake london was a better.

01:36:46
Speaker 3: Prospect i've Had tet.

01:36:48
Speaker 1: And more of like The Courtland sutton mold OR T higgins to a, degree where are you at With? Tennessee you know you have wide receiver, five which is technically lower than where consensus has for.

01:36:58
Speaker 2: Sure you, KNOW i came around On ted a little bit, more but for a while for a, while like the WAY i, score what usually happens IS i find all the little nitty gritty details BEFORE i see all the broad stroke stuff that gets their score. Higher so what can happen is or it just all comes together, early like it depends on how detail rich there each rep, is you. Know so so With, ted you, know for a WHILE i would have said to, you, Yeah Courtland sutton is a really good cop for, that AND i could see how if it doesn't work out for him really, well he's like What Courtland sutton was Before Sean payton got. Here, yeah you, know you, know BUT i THINK i HAVE i see him as probably a better inside out receiver THAN i see him as an outside, guy THOUGH i think he can do, it AND i like your mentioning OFF T higgins And Mike williams type of players who can be win the. Ball he can win the ball and he has a great skill with. THAT i do think that there's some potential there that if he can get better with his releases and have a better plan before the snap to know what he needs to do to earn that. SEPARATION i think that he has enough there to do. Well and he does clap attack a lot of targets THAT i don't want to see a guy, do which is What Courtland sutton was a master. At he is a clap attacker for, sure where he fights the ball more, often but he gets away with. It BUT i would say he's probably more on the range of WHAT i Saw Nico collins was coming. OUT i think that there's potential for him to grow into What Nico collins has, become and so that could be. Excellent you, Know he's definitely a guy THAT i think can start right, now BUT i do think that it would be best if he was opposite another good. Receiver if he's going to have to be the main man right, now it might take him a couple of years to really, develop and you better hope that there's like a veteran on the team can be helpful to appoint him in the right direction about routes and.

01:39:03
Speaker 1: Separation, YEAH I, mechaguka you have a wide receiver. Nine you, know do you see him as sort of just being a decent slot at the next? Level you, know one of the comps that pop for me is probably one of the closer ones within the database Was Robert. Woods you, KNOW i think others have said that as well with With. Agbuka but is there a hesitation from a ceiling, perspective like in terms of production at the next, level you, know fantasy production With agbuka if he's more stapled to the, slot if you.

01:39:36
Speaker 2: WILL i think. THAT i think the upside of him being like a high end wide receiver one in, fantasy or or even a top twelve guy on a regular, BASIS i think that's too high of an expectation for. HIM i know that there are people, say go look at his past tape and you're gonna see he's a lot more versatile on the, outside AND i think he can be you, know A Jackson smith and type of. Talent you, Know i've had some colleagues say THAT i didn't see. THAT i saw more of a he's at his best in. Space he's had his best on slow developing, routes working over the middle of the field and allow crossers and over routes and things like that to get. Downhill and you, KNOW i think it's just that maybe he's in the same city Of, pukinnakua but not in the same neighborhood in terms of you, know he doesn't always use the best attack of the, ball and that means that when he's in tight, coverage he's going to fight the ball more end up in situations where he loses. It he, has you, know his timing routes lack sharp. Detail so he's one of those guys that just you, know, again if he's not getting clean separation off the line and he's going to have to win in a tight, ENVIRONMENT i don't think that's the strength of his. Game so he's he'll do, it but he's not going to do it well enough that that a team's going to. Go that's our number one receiver and on third and, fifteen when everyone knows it's coming to it's going to go to. Him that's not the guy we want it coming. To, yeah, right, right makes?

01:41:13
Speaker 3: Sense all?

01:41:13
Speaker 1: Right the last wide RECEIVERS i want TO i want to ask you about. Again i'm gonna Reference harmon again Because harmon came out with His Jaden higgins route running profile and it was all red and then everyone freaked, out and so he he had And i'm gonna for the, Record harmon's coming on the show in a couple of weeks to do our yearly wide receiver. Discussion for, Me higgins was The higgins was actually the guy who close who most closely analytically looked Like Nico, collins but he also had like A cedric. Tilmany you could put Key On coleman in there as, well from just an analytical. Perspective and Then harmon came out and did say that he Sees higgins as more of that power, slot which is what he put Key On coleman in last, year you, know AND i think rightfully so after seeing What coleman, did you know after year. One but then there's Also Jalen nole in that same offense At Iowa state WHO i really, liked like just a lot of. Versatility you. Know his top comp for me For Jalen nole was Actually Randall cobb just again all analytics, base but again but someone who you. Know Jalen nole was so interesting because he had one year where his aid out was like three yards and then he has last year where he's getting down the field more frequently Than Jayden higgins, was and he played all over the, Place he played special, teams he was getting some rushing work like that kind of dynamic and then obviously he just destroyed the combine like he JUST i mean from an athletic testing, standpoint he was not THAT i cared that much about it a wide, receiver but he was a freak. Athlete and so to, Me Jalen nole is just is just really interesting because he seems very, dynamic can do a lot of different.

01:42:51
Speaker 3: Things higgins seems like maybe the more PROTOTYPICAL x that would be in this. Class if you could.

01:42:59
Speaker 1: Find one, guy maybe that would be the guy that could just be. That but do you see similar things with McMillan Where higgins would just be more of, that like play more in the slot than people would. Realize it's based on the size and the general.

01:43:11
Speaker 2: PROFILE i think that that might be ways that they want to get him open early in his, career because sometimes his footwork is really sharp when he's releasing against, defenders and sometimes you can tell that he doesn't know what he wants to do and it's tentative and he's running in, mud you. Know so it's really more of about having a plan and understanding what the plan should be and developing. That it's funny how you have more of A Nico collins for, him AND i had more of and you had more of A. T higgins For. TET i have more of A. T Higgins Mike. Oymes so it's funny how that. Goes but we're at least in the same, Ballpark like it's just a range of a spectrum for.

01:43:51
Speaker 1: Them, yeah but these also to, me like these are the guys for the most part that are like sort of the let's see if they can develop into true x is in the at THE.

01:44:01
Speaker 3: Nfl love there's not a ton of this archetype in this year's.

01:44:03
Speaker 2: Class, yeah if there's, One i'm going to talk about him. Later but and and what what we're going to talk about a little bit later on, here BUT i would, say you, know With, higgins you, know IT'S i think that he's someone that what he's, doing what he can't, do he should get better. At and when you see when you see that he had when he knows what he's, doing he's, quick he's and he's he's got that explosive ability and he can use his his, size, strength, length and and quickness in those areas you feel better about projecting that the areas where he doesn't do it well because it's just a matter of learning the technique as opposed to not having any technique whatso all and, whatsoever.

01:44:53
Speaker 3: So not not if but when.

01:44:54
Speaker 2: Yeah it's, yeah good way to put.

01:44:56
Speaker 1: It and then and then With jalen Nol, are do you do you think there's a possibility THAT i mean that this is like An Amen Ross saint brown ish situation where he's that dynamic and could could maybe play a little bit more on the perimeter because it's pretty heavily using the slot In Iowa. State, now obviously you're playing With higgins and that's going to force your hand a little, Bit but do you did you see enough that he could be more than just that at the next.

01:45:23
Speaker 2: Level, YEAH i think. SO i, mean you Come Matthew golden And Robert, woods AND i would Say Robert woods And Amen Ross Saint brown in their prime are probably very similar types of. Players you could put them. Outside you used them a lot in the. Slot it's just That woods languished and With Rex ryan In baltimore for a little, while And i'm Not baltimore but In buffalo for a little, while and then with NOL i, MEAN i think it's a similar type of. THING i, have like what people Hope Johnny metchi would. Become you, KNOW i think he's the Discount Matthew golden like he you, know he's the guy that might give you just as good or better a career Than, golden but you can get. Later and so, yeah excellent stop. Start skill reaccelerates really. Well i've seen him work well in the middle of the. Field he had a compelling young quarterback for a year In Hunter deckers At Iowa state who got banned because he decided to go on The DraftKings that his dad put on an account for fifteen bucks and then he played a parlay and ended up getting. Banned from THE ncaa and was At Iowa western last. Year but he was featured ON espn AND i. WATCHED i didn't study him for THE rsp because it was a little, late BUT i. WATCHED i watched enough to see IF i should have studied, him AND i definitely should have studied. Him he definitely would have been at least in the top seven to nine of my twelve quarterbacks. There he can he can fit the ball into coverage really, well and so he made a lot of pro caliber throws And noel was on the receiving end of many of. Those so you can tell that he's got the skill to operate in. Traffic and the only thing THAT i would say with him that he's got to work on and it's got to get straightened out pretty early or he's not gonna he's gonna lose playing time is that sometimes he doesn't know when to stop and settle and when to continue. Running he gets confused by the. Cut that means he's not sure whether he's running against zone or, man and he and the quarterback got to be on the same page with.

01:47:19
Speaker 1: That, yeah all, right we've been talking a. Lot you've been talking a Lot i'll just give you one more question and you. Can this is very open, ended so you can you can give any take that you haven't been able to give throughout this talking about what he's running back and wide. Receivers we're not going to get to the quarterback and tight end stuff. Totally but if there's one potential like late, round maybe undrafted pick at any of these fantasy football related positions that you think more people should be aware, of give me that.

01:47:44
Speaker 2: Player i'm gonna give You isaiah and Nay or Of. Nebraska he's starting all. Nice, yeah he is about six four two twenty somewhere around that, range around a four four forty at the. Combine now you would have heard of him if he didn't tear AN acl At texas When steve Starts keys and recruited him out Of wyoming where he was destroying everybody At, wyoming and then he came To texas and Sarkes in was preseason, going, Listen i've got a receiver tandem In isaiah And ayer And Xavier. Worthy we're going to rule. That we're going to rule our division with these. Guys and then he tore IN acl and then it took him a while to get back on. Track but he's a big receiver who plays to his. Size he has good speed who can win. Vertically he wins over the middle just. Fine he can run after the. Catch he would have been much higher on my board IF i could have seen instances in all the tape THAT i, watched AND i watched EVERYTHING i could, find AND i had access to all his. FILM i watched it, all AND i didn't see any instances where he had to like navigate, traffic we had to show patients or, creativity or where he had to run through people or anything that would have given him a higher, score BECAUSE i would presume you. Could when you score evaluate people LIKE i. Do the question you have to answer is DO i presume that he can do it and give him, credit or DO i, say you've got to prove it BECAUSE i haven't seen, it And i've gone for the you've got to prove it BECAUSE i haven't seen, it BECAUSE i don't want to project things that aren't there to that. Degree SO i didn't see. Stuff he could have easily been the top twelve receiver on my, board but he was like twentieth or twenty first or something like. That SO i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being like a fifth or sixth round pick or undrafted and people, go who is? That but when you watch his. Game the other thing, too IS i think he wanted to raise his draft status because he tried very hard to get another year and so he could come out late and come out next year and get another year of. Eligibility and it just and he went back and forth on. It THEN i think he ran that the combine and did well and he, Said i'll screw. It i'll, Go, yeah that's a good.

01:49:56
Speaker 1: NAME i feel like that is not a name That i've seen thrown. OUT i, MEAN i wrote his profile up and, stuff BUT i have not seen that name get thrown out.

01:50:05
Speaker 3: There SO i. LIKE i like the the the uniqueness of. It it's, great, Cool it's.

01:50:08
Speaker 1: Awesome, Waldman, man this was. AWESOME i, MEAN i love love like this. Is now now it's officially a yearly.

01:50:16
Speaker 2: Thing, YES i hope so did it last?

01:50:19
Speaker 3: Year now did it this?

01:50:20
Speaker 1: Year let everyone know where they can FIND rsp everything they get and where they can find.

01:50:25
Speaker 2: You sure you get a pre draft and post draft. Publication the pre draft is. Humongous you can you know if the beast Is King, kong then THE RSPs. Godzilla, OKAY i don't know who won in, those and we're not trying to proclaim ones a winner over the. Other day does the great, Work but you know you're going to get twelve hundred pages of prospect, profiles rankings and breakdowns of my process and transparent ways that are hopefully. Entertaining you, KNOW i try to make them as, such and everything's bookmarked in A pdf and very navigatable BECAUSE i have bookmarks up the wa so that you can go anywhere and choose your own adventure with. It but you're gonna be able to see HOW i break them down against each, other HOW i look at these classes, historically what trends are happening with each, position and you get these detailed takes based on WHAT i see on the. Field quarterback coaches have used, it wide receiver coaches. Have i've worked With Drew, lieberman who's worked with guys Like Andre Josivasdontavian, Wis Julian, Edelman Mohammed, sanu guys Like Alamides A. Chais you, know he's worked with a lot of guys like, That And i've learned a, lot you, know applying my technique to guys like, that you, know to that. Position it's one of the most danes in minor to the two most purchased draft guides BY nfl scouts as an outside resource according to guys Like Alex. Brown so that's the pumping it up of. It it's you'll be pleasantly shocked at what you, get and Then i'll give you a fantasy take more, fantasy and it takes short term with fit based on the post draft where you get the two page long cheat sheet that gives you sweet spots of where you should draft them relative to me SAYING i like this guy better than most, folks OR i like this guy less than most, people so that you either let them fall to you and know when to take them if you get, them and knowing and you'll, know like you'll look at a guy and, go, Well matt obviously doesn't want me to touch this. Guy and then you'll see another moment and, goes, Okay i'm getting a two round discount on this, guy you. Know and then SO i show that player. Fit you know what the depth charts look like and analysis of the depth, charts AND i rediscuss WHY i Think lad McConkey will be a top fit as opposed To Marvin harrison is a more questionable fit than What where's value. Is and you Get you get all that for twenty one to ninety five at matt woman dot. Com and AND i do newsletters each, month you know that update you on the twenty twenty six class and thoughts like. That AND i do projections and rankings For dynasty as a separate product WHERE i give you all the. ANSWERS i do projections for for the for for every team and every imaginable, player and you get a cheat sheet that's got about somewhere around three hundred and fifty players on it THAT i THAT i rank and update throughout the throughout the season so that you can kind of see where my values are with. Them BUT i don't give much commentary. There i'm, like if you just want the, answers there's the, answers but you're you're paying more because all the work THAT i do upfront is for this cheaper product THAT i want people to. See so that's that's what you.

01:53:38
Speaker 1: Get you, know definitely check it. OUT i THINK i said it last. Year i'll say it. Again you, know if you've been interested in like the Late Round Prospect guide and the modeling and the analytics side of, things this is a, great great. Compliment it's it's you, know a, massive massive monstrosity of a document with the information inside of. It you will be very very happy with the with the with the purchase to definitely check it. Out you, know go check out the lay round prospect.

01:54:06
Speaker 2: Guys please go get. That let me IF i may interrupt, you just say Because i'd, Rather i'd rather blow the horn for you on this end and, say because like between you and between you and harm and like, guys like what we do independently with this type of. Stuff we're giving you a and it is very complimentary because you can see where we like this whole show where we differ and, why and you can see the process and how that works. Well so with what you do so well from with the modeling and again with you, know you get historical factors that go into that that give you a much more clear minded idea of like when SHOULD i take a? Risk is this a risk that's worth it to? Me or SHOULD i just hold back and GO i really like the, shine these shiny bright toys. Here but maybe for the better of men of my, team maybe this is WHERE i should hit and.

01:54:57
Speaker 1: Look sometimes it's fun to just get the shiny new. Toy you're just Playing dynasty for entertainment. Purposes but, yeah you KNOW i said this year, ESPECIALLY i drove home in the Prospect guide that the model is there to tell you when to deviate from draft. Capital that's really what this comes down, to you. Know and then you, Know i'm watching these guys as. Well it's just not the thing THAT i know That i'm providing the most value. With and SO i can add that, commentary But i'd rather have smart folks like you come on and give even more detailed commentary on that side of the.

01:55:27
Speaker 3: Game so thank, You. Matt you know, Again let's make this a yearly. Tradition do this each.

01:55:32
Speaker 2: Year.

01:55:34
Speaker 1: Everyone check it. Out check Out waldman's rookie scouting. Portfolio unbelievable work that he put into. That, otherwise enjoy your weekend and thank you for tuning. In, yeah