400: Mailbag 8/14/20

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J zacher Resa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode four hundred of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Man Episode four hundred. Thanks for tuning in. Before get into this week's questions, I want to send you, guys another reminder about odds Fire. Whether you're playing dfs or betting on sports, Odds Fire is a key tool for your research. Shop for the best lines in each market and see which side is getting the most bets and money. Odds Fires the premiere odds comparison experience across major bookmakers and the regulated US market. Never settle, always get the best odds. Check out the experience for free now at oddsfire dot com. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Now let's get to these questions. The first question this week is from at jscrab eighty seven. Well the Browns newfound offensive efficiency make up for the touches Nick Chubb is going to lose to Kareem Hunt. Also upgrades at the offensive line. So I tweeted some thoughts earlier this week about Nick Chubb, and the basis of those tweets were that I think that there's a decent chance that Kareem Hunt steals more of a rushing share than we're projecting for Nick Chubb. My projections have Chubb at RB ten right now, and they're projecting Chubb for two hundred and sixty carries. That's basically where his ADP is. So it's not like I'm sitting here saying, hey, guys, I'm not drafting Nick Chubb this year, but I do think we have to consider that Chubb may see fewer carries than we think. Last year, when Hunt returned, Chubb went from seeing about ninety two percent of the team's running back rushes to seventy eight percent of them his overall rush share, so his share of rushes versus the number of team rushes that dropped by about fifteen percent when Kareem Hunt came back and went all the way down to seventy percent. That's still a really high number. My projections do have somewhat of a buffer baked into that too, where he's seeing closer to sixty percent of the team's rushes, and he's still coming out as a low end RB one, so it's not like he's some worthless asset even with a dip and rushing chair. So I want to be clear that I think that Chubb is fine where he's being priced right now. The reason I wanted to just tweet about it the other day, though, was because I think that there's at least some chance that the rushing share between Hunt and Chubb is closer than we expect, and with Hunt being the primary pass catcher there, we saw Chubb's target share drop per game like seven percent last year when Kareem Hunt returned. It just seems to me like the obvious value in that backfield is Kareem Hunt when you're factoring in ADP, at least in PPR formats. I got a lot of responses to the Chubb thread talking about Dalvin Cook and what he was able to do last year in the Kevin Stefanski offense and how that should be attributed to Nick Chubb in some way. The difference is that Cook's rush share in that offense last year was lower than Nick Chubb's and Dalvin Cook saw a fourteen percent target chair. Nick Chubb is not projected to come close to that, and let's not pretend to rookie Alexander Madison is as good as Kareem Hunt competition wise. If anything, talking about Stefanski in the way that he used Cook might be a bad thing for Nick Chubb, at least if you compare and contrast last season's numbers. Because last season, Nick Chubb saw almost seventy six percent of Cleveland's rushes overall throughout the entire season. That was the highest mark in the entire league, though Christian McCaffrey had a higher percentage of running back rushes, and that overall rush share mark was the third highest buyer running back since twenty eleven. So let's bring this all together. Nick Chubb's full season target share and full season rushing share from last season, they're likely going to go down, like almost definitely. So that means you need two things to happen at a high level for him to maintain being a top ten running back. The Browns need to be better at scoring touchdowns and the Browns need to run the ball more. Both of those things can and probably will happen again. This is why my projections show what they do offensive line is better, and it shouldn't be hard for this regime to be better than last year's coaching staff. Last year's coaching staff was horrendous. My point with all of this is to say that it's really easy to see Chubb as a high floor play, but there are a lot of reasons to think that his ceiling isn't as high as some might think. And because of that, I think it makes sense to put someone like Josh Jacobs ahead of him in your rankings right now, since he doesn't have that Kareem Hunt type player competing for touches in the backfield. This beast question says, please explain the TJ. Hockinson hype. I understand that he has draft capital, but he had won one good game last year and it was against the tight end gift that is Arizona. I can't rationalize ranking him as even a low end tight end one. Am I off on this? Yeah? I think you're kind of off on this at least I disagree. I like Hawkinson a lot as a breakout candidate, partially because he fits a lot of the criteria that I found to be useful in my finding breakout tight end study. They usually don't come from nowhere. Their typical year two or three tight ends, they're athletic, and they play with good quarterbacks. Hawkinson checks all of those boxes. There's enough opportunity in that offense for Hawkinson to carve out a role. And don't forget that not only was he banged up last year, but he was a rookie. Rookie tight ends generally aren't producing at these super high levels. I'm into Hackinson. He's one of the better late round tight end targets. This best question says. You mentioned last week that landing spot for running backs matters a lot. With that in mind, where would you draft Deandres Swift and redraft? Do you see any upside for him this season or in future seasons. I've actually become more bullish on Swift over the last month or two. The reason being is when you get to that point in the draft, you're obviously shooting for upside. The opportunity cost is much lower around that area of the draft. Swift should hypothetically give us some production from the start, even while sharing a backfield with Kerry on Johnson. I do think the most reasonable outcome for Swift is going to be that he shares that backfield all season long in some way, because the Lions do seem to want a committee. But the upside is there if Swift is just light years better than carry On Johnson, which is entirely possible, though I do stand by the statement that I think that Johnson is the best existing running back on one of those teams that drafted a high end running back this year. But Swift could just force the Lions to not use Johnson. He could take over that backfield. So I've bought into him more and more at his ADP because where he's being drafted is essentially where his projection is spitting him out. That's probably the biggest takeaway with something like this. It's similar to Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunts ADP DeAndre Swift's ADP. They're both reflecting what we would expect if they were in a split backfield. Their ADP reflects their projection. That may seem like a normal thing that projections equal average draft position, but there's more to wid than just that a projection is a median outcome. I always like to target players where there's a path to grow or where there's room to grow within that projection. Like, for example, is there a ton of room for growth for David Montgomery? Is he going to make Tarik Cohen irrelevant in that offense? I would argue no, I don't like totally mind David Montgomery, but he's just not something that I'm actively targeting because he's more of a floor play rather than a ceiling play in that offense. Montgomery could hypothetically project out to be better than DeAndre Swift, but Swift clearly has a path to get better from that projection. At least it's clearer and easier to see that than with David Montgomery. So with Swift, his upside may not be totally baked into his ADP right now. He should give you some low end RB two production, even with Carrie on Johnson in the mix. But if the Lions have no choice but to keep him on the field because he's that good, then there's obvious upside. This last questions from at Fishwind is Mikole Hardman or Sammy Watkins a better value at their ADP? Are either of these players worth looking at late in the draft for a seas long league or will they're inconsistentash limited usage? See twenty nineteen Just be a headache. This is a super lame answer, but I think they're easier to draft in best ball leagues than in season long leagues. Of course, I like Hardman Moore because the upside is there. Watkins ran the forty second most routes at wide receiver last year in a Patrick Mahomes offense in just fourteen games played, and he still wasn't usable in fantasy football. But Hardman, as a rookie, had the superior yards per route run rate between the two, and I'd expect him to find the field more and more this season. I just don't know if it's going to be significant enough for him to be an obvious value since his ADP bakes in some of that upside given how bad he was when Watkins and Hill both played. Hardman had one game with more than two targets last year with Watkins and Hill both healthy. So I don't mind either guy in a best ball format, and I think that you could make an easy case for either one of them in general because of the offense that they play in. I'm definitely not saying to avoid them. They're just not top targets for me this year, but Hardman is one of my top dynasty buys this beast questions from at K Houston four to one to three. How do you fight the bias of hot new players? The fantasy market loves new names and will often pump them up with little evidence for success. Ceh is maybe the grandest example of this, but one could find many smaller examples and many who have failed. Look, I think there's a little bit of bias with a question like this. We usually remember the hyped players who fail more than we do the non hyped players who fail. We remember Darwin Thompson and Justice Hill from last year as huge bus but players bust in that range all the freaking time. Dion Lewis was being drafted right next to Darwin Thompson. Last year, Justin Jackson and Edo Smith were being drafted around Justice Hill. It's important to not let the word hype or the fantasy football group think just totally overshadow logic. If you ignored Chris Godwin last year because of hype, then you probably didn't like the outcome. I just don't think that players being hyped always end up being players that are bad. My answer on how you fight this bias of hot new players is just to think logically and critically. I still don't think targeting someone like Justice Hill last year was that bad of an idea. The dude was a rookie running back who had ambiguous upside who then played in an offense that was the best in football. There's nothing wrong with that. The same can kind of be said with Darwin Thompson. But Thompson, which is more of a question mark as a prospect, just ask yourself if the logic makes sense to me. The Cech logic makes sense. I don't think that you should take him over the locked in belcals like Zeke or Dalvin Cook, but I think he's in that next tier because we have evidence of rookie running backs crushing it and Andy Reid's offense is with Kareem Hunt. We know Cech is a great pass catcher, we know they spent first round draft capital to get him, and we know the competition is not very strong. You have to at least understand that the Cech hype is not just hype. There's some logic behind it. When there's not logic behind something, then I'll question it. But it's a case by case, player by player thing. This last question is another one about Clyde Edwards a Laire. How do you see the other Kansas City running backs after CEH? Should I keep Daryl Williams or Darwin Thompson in Dynasty or open the spot to go after more rookie sleepers. So I like DeAndre Washington the most in that backfield because he's got a pass catching skill set and he's been effective in the past. We have a sample of him being able to handle a big workload and being fantasy relevant as a result. Just last year, Washington had three games where he saw sixty percent or more of Oakland's running back rushes. In those games, he ranked as the RB nine, eleven, and nine in weekly scoring. I think stashing the other running backs is fine, and it depends entirely on who the alternatives are that you would be adding. But Washington is the guy that I think could see the most work, especially early in the season with Clyde Edwards a Laire getting used to the NFL level. That's question, says, hey, JJ, I've been listening to your podcast all off season. I've noted three things. Number one, the most obvious, you don't draft quarterbacks early or tight ends. Number Two, you've pointed out in your most recent episode that the hit rate of running backs thirteen to twenty four is low. Number three. The receiver market is very efficient from an ADP standpoint this year. So my question is who is left to draft in the third, fourth, and even fifth rounds for you? And how does that shape what you were doing in the first two rounds. By pick twenty five, there are only RB two's left and we don't get back into RB three land until pick sixty ish. If you are avoiding those running backs, don't you always have to draft running back? Running back in rounds one and two? Best? Nick? Okay, So there's a lot to unpack here. First off, I don't think that you always need to draft tight ends late. I think you go early or you go late, and I usually am going late, just given where early round tight ends are usually valued. But because of your point of where the running back drop off occurs this year, I'm more inclined to get a Kelsey or a Kiddle. The second point here is that even though I tend to avoid RB twos, and even though history isn't really on their side, I don't just completely avoid them. I like James Connor and Chris Carson this year. I think they're both decent values in some drafts. Strategically, it makes sense to not load up and rely on that tier, absolutely, but if you're doing a lot of drafts, you shouldn't just ignore it completely. Now to the point about the receiver market being efficient. It being efficient doesn't mean I'm ignoring it in the early rounds. It means that I'm more than okay getting guys like Adam Thielen and Robert Woods. I'll draft them at ADP, I'll draft them at cost. How you draft should be dictated by your format and your scoring settings. I can't give you guys a blanket way to draft. I play in a lot of leagues where you're starting three wide receivers in a flex and it's full PPR. In that scenario, I'm all about a modified zero RB approach. I know that some people hate that phrase, but I'll get a running back with my first pick as my anchor, hope that he's the bell cow that I project him to be, and then I pound wide receivers with my next handful of picks before that RB three tier hits. But if it's more of a standard league and you're just starting a lot of running backs that changes. There are a lot of good picks in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds, especially a wide receiver. I think in most cases this year, I'm probably gonna go running back, wide receiver or running back running back, but I'm flexible knowing all of this information that I talk about on this show. This last question says, if you had to pick one dark horse candidate to finish at the top of each position, who would they be. So a lot of people on Twitter liked this question, so I figured that I would answer it at running back. I think Miles Sanders is a safe answer, but I'll go with James Connor as a deeper one. We've seen him with top five upside in the past, so it's not that hard to envision him having a high ceiling season if he does stay healthy at wide receiver. In my safe pick is Adam Thielen, but my the deeper one is Tyler Lockett. Locket is just another player that I bought into more and more recently. There's a non zero chance that we see Seattle open things up a little bit more through the air this year, and Lockett was averaging like nineteen points per game last year. Before getting hurt. But I'm excited with what he may be able to do this season. With DK Metcalf lined up on the outside, and then at tight end, I don't think they are very good candidates here. Hayden Hurst jumps to my mind because the Falcons could see a lot of passing volume, so I guess he would be my answer. But it's really hard to envision a tight end being better than Travis Kelcey or George Kittle or even Mark Andrews or zach Ertz. And at quarterback it's Cam Newton. He's been a top five quarterback in five of his eight seasons where he's played fourteen or more games. We know the upside is there. He's easily the late round quarterback to get this year since risk is currently being baked into his ADP. The last question today is from at Pell three to one six. Is Gibson the twenty twenty version of Darwin Thompson or is the hype real? Now? I want people to get the word hype out of their brain when it comes to fantasy football, because I think it does more harm than good. People tend to just avoid players just because of hype when that doesn't make any sense logically, Antonio Gibson is nothing like Darwin Thompson as players, as prospects, their situations, they're nothing alike. The reason people were drafting Thompson last year was because they didn't trust veteran running backs in that Chiefs backfield, and Thompson was a rookie with upside that we didn't know about. We just didn't know. There were tons of red flags, but you were taking a shot at associating a later round running back with one of the best offenses in the league. That was really the extent of it. Thompson had decent athleticism measurements, but he's a little undersized too. Now there's some connection between Thompson and Gibson and that they didn't go play for a big school or a big program right away when they finished high school, but Gibson is not the same type of player as Darwin Thompson at all. Gibson played both running back and wide receiver at Memphis, so he has this intriguing potential as a pass catcher. Like at the very least we should expect Washington to use him as a receiver. But now there's this potential without Darius geis for Antonio Gibson to carve out some role as a running back, and he's got the right size and speed. He's a freak. He's six feet two hundred and twenty eight pounds and he ran a four to three nine forty at the combine. He had a ninety ninth percentile speed score. There's just loads and loads of upside that comes with that. He's honestly got a higher end comp of David Johnson. Darwin Thompson didn't really have that in PPR formats. I love getting Antonio Gibson as my RB four if I can, just to see what happens. I don't think hype has anything to do with it. He should have some receiving role at the very least in that offense. And it's not like he's got locked in elite competition in that Washington backfield to compete with. So no, Gibson, to me, is not the twenty twenty version of Darwin Thompson. Even if Gibson ends up busting, they're totally different players in totally different situations. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribe to the Late Round podcast. Make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, have a great weekend.