076 - Experiments that changed fire science pt. 1 - Dalmarnock Fire Tests Round Robin study with Guillermo Rein and Wolfram Jahn

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Hello, everybody.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Welcome to the fire science show.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Nice to have you here is going to be hard to beat the last week's spacecraft fire safety episode by.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Let's give it a try.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Today, we're starting Let's say a mini series in the podcast.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I'm going to make a.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Group of, themed episodes.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>They will be themed around the experiments that have changed the fire science.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Which means I'm going to discuss here the most impactful experimental programs we had in the fire science.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>With the scientists who have performed them or ones that are very well-informed about the curves of the experiments.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>We're going to talk about their legacy.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>We're going to talk about what.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Happened with let's do these experiments.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Why were there needed, what were the ideas when they were conducted?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>What questions they try to ask?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>In the end.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>What did they change overall in the fire science?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And today we're starting with the first one.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It's on the round Robin pod of Dalmarnock fire program.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>For me, it's one of the most inflation pieces of research that I've learned during my career.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And they And they have really laid a new perspective on using of numerical tools, models.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The difference between modeling and model.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>something that, that, from my own perspective from my own career has really changed.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The landscape of, of use of modern tools.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The Dalmarnock   fire program was carried on the supervision of professor Jose Torrero by the university of Edinburgh and it was obviously much bigger than the part that we're going to touch about today.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It was first and foremost, motivated by creating more visibility for fire.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Professional fire engineering profession.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Bye.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Making a documentary, a Skyscraper Firefighters that aired on BBC two.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, I was a major thing to, to produce a large documentary about compartment fires.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And that that goal was certainly achieved.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It was also part of a Fire Grid program, a much larger study.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It had massive instrumentation, all of this you can find and read, but here today I would like to focus on one.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Let's say little aspect of this.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Experiment.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And that was the round Uh, Round robin was a, an attempt to send the data to some fire modelers.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Who.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>To try and predict what would be the consequences of the fire in the building.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Then they've built, burned the fire.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And then they've compared them.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I know, boy, it was interesting too, to look at the data and that is exactly what we are going to talk about in today.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I've invited professor Guillermo Rein, who was the lead scientist behind, a priori the before fire experiment, uh, round Robin.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And Dr Wolfram Jahn at that point was leading the post-fire modeling, where they tried to improve the quality of, of modeling and predictions.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Given the knowledge gained from the experiments.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So I hope this will be interesting to you.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I've linked the Dalmarnock papers in the show notes.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So if you want to learn more about the experiments themselves, the motivation and the other aspects of it, you're very welcome to do that.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There are the round Robin.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Apriori posteriori papers as well a lot of a lot of knowledge have very fundamental research and now let's hear from the scientists why was it important and why you actually should read them so yeah that's been the intro let's go Hello everybody.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Welcome to the Fire Science Show.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Today we're gonna try something different.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Well, the same thing, but a little different.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I thought that, it could be nice to learn about what made our fire science the thing.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Have today.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And for that, I would love to discuss some of the most famous, most impactful experiments and papers that that happened over the course of the decades as Fire Safety Engineering was developing.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And to start it off, I have one that was suddenly impactful for my own career as a CFD engineer, and that is the round robin part of the Dalmarnock Fire Experiment.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And today I have with me two lead researchers of that task in that big project.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>first Professor Guillermo Rein from Imperial College London.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Hey Guillermo nice to see you here for the fourth time.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Thank you, but it's great to be back.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I'll have to buy you like a t-shirt or something for the fifth one, I guess

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<v Guillermo Rein>I would love a t-shirt and a, a pen, or a book, or

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I don't know.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I'll, I'll figure out something.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>But it's great to have you and gui, you are leading the, a part of CFD experiment there, and I also have the head of the

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<v Track 1>a

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>posteriori

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<v Wolfram Jahn>hey, how are you?

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<v Wolfram Jahn>Tich nice to be back.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Nice to be back.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>You also have been a guest on the show talking about cfd, which perfectly ties to this

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<v Wolfram Jahn>this in the previous e episode as well.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>you, , if you have not, uh, heard the Wolframs episode, it's very impactful and you should just pause now.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Go.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I think it was episode 14 or 15.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>You were a very early adopter of the show.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Thank you very much for that.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Both of you are okay.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Let's, let's jump into the Dalmarnock because there's lot to talk about that.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, fir first question, Why the hell such a project happened?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>how did we end up having this massive set of fire experiments in the residential compartments, carried out in, what was the, the grand idea?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I know that from the talks we, we had before that Ron Robin came to the whole program at some point of, of its development.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Let's first talk about why we needed Dalmarnock in the first place.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Guillermo, you were there observing it firsthand.

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<v Guillermo Rein>So Dalmarnock experiments of 2006 is the brainchild of Professor Jose, Jose Torero.

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<v Guillermo Rein>He was at the University of Edinburgh at that time, and he convened the housing authority in Glasgow, the fire Brigades and the TV programmers of Horizon Show, which, signs the commentaries.

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<v Guillermo Rein>He convened the three of them to have these experiments in a real building, in a real apartment, not in a, in a real building, but it was only two apartments that got two fire.

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<v Guillermo Rein>and he, made this opportunity an incredible and super exciting opportunity because they remain the, most densely sensed experiments conducted to date in fire science.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And this was done in 2006 it's not been beaten yet because the amount of sensors of all kinds that were inside those two flats is incredible.

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<v Guillermo Rein>many things happen in Delmar.

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<v Guillermo Rein>No.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And afterwards, but one, one of them, one of the things that happened, the one that you have invited us to talk about is the modeling exercise around, Dalmarnock.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And at that time, Jose and I were in very active discussions, about what is the difference between a model modeling, right?

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<v Guillermo Rein>So both are scientists and engineers, and we were concerned that if one says I've validated the model, that doesn't mean that the modeling apply by another person in another context means that the same level of or, position is, is applied.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And we didn't know how to make this point.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And I remember we had a meeting in London with our top and top FDS developers, and out of that meeting, I told Jose, Look, there is a way that we can address this.

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<v Guillermo Rein>can do round robining.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And at that point Jose said, What is that?

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<v Guillermo Rein>And, and I explained to him the idea, which I, I can, I guess your wants to know as well, what's around Robining and around round is when you have a task, for a group of people and everybody does the task independently, and then you put all the results and you compare what the group has done.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Right.

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<v Guillermo Rein>So the key is that this, they're independent.

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<v Guillermo Rein>It cannot be that I'm looking into who's at the left or who's in front use that results to guide my, So they are independent and you put them all together and you compare them.

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<v Guillermo Rein>You have do a benchmarking of one to the other.

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<v Guillermo Rein>So we said Dalmarnock is gonna happen.

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<v Guillermo Rein>We tell everybody, the modelists around the world what Dalmarnock is going to do.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And before we do Dalmarnock or before they see the results, actually it's more correct to say before they see the results.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Hmm.

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<v Guillermo Rein>we tell them to simulate this, fire, the development of the fire way they want it to do.

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<v Guillermo Rein>They should simulate this before they see the results.

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<v Guillermo Rein>And that's what we call the a priori round robin, priori for the Latin of ahead of the event.

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<v Guillermo Rein>So before the fire happen, many people around the wall try to simulate with different software tools would have happened.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Then they send us the results So they, they send us their predictions and then we send the results.

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<v Guillermo Rein>then the second part is what Wolfram led, which was a posteriori for the latin of after the event, which is,

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<v Wolfram Jahn>Robin.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>Actually, it was just

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<v Guillermo Rein>which was not around Robin.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Indeed.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Good point.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Why is

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<v Wolfram Jahn>was just one, one team, Well, me and Guillermo basically.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>Um, so it was just one team.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>It wasn't, it wasn't many teams kind of competing to do it.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>I think there's, or there have been more attendance of modeling that, but I don't think any of that has been published.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>think ours is that was actually published and

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<v Guillermo Rein>this is important Wolfram this is really important why they didn't publish.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>because, um, it wasn't, it wasn't easy even knowing what happened.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>It wasn't, it wasn't easy to match the results.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>It was very, very hard actually to come up.

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<v Guillermo Rein>So this is, this is the key This is why we did the round robin.

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<v Guillermo Rein>This is literally why we did it because, you go into a literature and the scientific literature and this, this massive filter in the scientific literature that only if you get amazing results, publish, you submit to journal.

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<v Guillermo Rein>mean, you have to be out of your mind really to submit to a.

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<v Guillermo Rein>An exercise where you prove you are useless at simulating the experiment.

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<v Guillermo Rein>However, editor, please, everybody should know how crap I am at modeling.

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<v Guillermo Rein>that's why in the literature you only see beautiful examples cfd or it doesn't have to be a cfd cuz this happens to every single discipline.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Non true is you publish only when the results are amazing in your modern You don't publish research.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Negative have good press, doesn't create careers, doesn't take the time of editors.

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<v Guillermo Rein>So with round Robin what we wanted to say is like, well, a group of people known to the field are gonna try to do this.

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<v Guillermo Rein>the experiments are amazing and well done.

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<v Guillermo Rein>some of them will not do too well.

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<v Guillermo Rein>It will be negative them.

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<v Guillermo Rein>The other ones hopefully will do well.

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<v Guillermo Rein>That will be positive altogether.

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<v Guillermo Rein>think this is something that everybody will want to know about and that's, and that's what we did.

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<v Guillermo Rein>We wanted to, to see the part of the filter that never gets to us.

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<v Guillermo Rein>in the literature, which is the tens that failed to simulate it was attempted to do at the beginning,

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<v Wolfram Jahn>we have to come a little bit back to, to what's from the beginning that why were these experiments done, in the first place?

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<v Wolfram Jahn>It wasn't, it wasn't about modeling in the beginning.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>It was about trying to.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>Being able to predict the fire based on, cuz it was all in the context of this Fire Grid project.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>the big idea able to predict fire development based on sensor data and trying.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>Then once you have the prediction, trying to manage the fire, that was the whole paradigm I think.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>at some point we'd realized that we need modeling, but we can't do it.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>And that's basically the, ongoing problem it's been years and there has been lots of development many aspects, but some of the main conclusions remain.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>We still can't blind predictions.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>if I ask you to move back in time 15 years ago, what, how did the modeling look back then?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I mean, what version, what, what version of FDS we even had?

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Was there this four

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<v Wolfram Jahn>I, I did the posterior modeling with four and I was criticized, I'm not using five.

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<v Wolfram Jahn>And so it was, was about that time that five appeared.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And app was, was definitely four then.

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<v Guillermo Rein>One thing because we just did something that I did it as well and we should not do the round.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Robin is not about FDS

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>okay.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah, of course.

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<v Guillermo Rein>CD and, and the round Robin at least two zone.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

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<v Guillermo Rein>and it's important.

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<v Guillermo Rein>When we invited people to participate, we did not hint it nor impose any model

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

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<v Guillermo Rein>said the model that you are comfortable with, what happened the end is that the brave, I call it the brave cuz they're very brave.

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<v Guillermo Rein>Only the brave, of them chose fds.

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<v Guillermo Rein>one came with the guts doing Ansys.

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<v Guillermo Rein>fluent,

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<v Wolfram Jahn>That's

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<v Guillermo Rein>Sophie, None of these modelers have the guts to, to come with us, to the round robin only users of and this on the own model, came with us actually the two models that were use, a hundred percent of the models used in the round robin.

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<v Guillermo Rein>were by NIST free

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Nice.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That's, that's powerful.

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<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, what was the environment back then?

00:13:13.827 --> 00:13:24.957
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I guess this was quite soon after the World Trade Center papers were published, which also were, This investigation is also something that I need to cover in this series because it was also groundbreaking, on its way.

00:13:24.957 --> 00:13:34.903
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I know it paved the way to Multiprocessor, fds and other, things that we take for granted today, like is obviously are here, but then it, it were problems.

00:13:35.061 --> 00:13:38.900
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>but from, from your experience, how did it look back then compared to today?

00:13:39.081 --> 00:13:41.160
<v Wolfram Jahn>you mean in, in terms of modeling or generally?

00:13:41.931 --> 00:13:42.291
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>yeah, yeah.

00:13:42.500 --> 00:13:47.410
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Of tools, of, of availability, of, of solutions, of the best practices.

00:13:47.910 --> 00:13:48.880
<v Wolfram Jahn>that's a good question.

00:13:49.293 --> 00:14:08.096
<v Wolfram Jahn>think there was a little bit of, So, so there, there were these papers , to, to Convincingly, um, to reproduce the, fireball of the, of the double of the world trades and I think there was a bit of, of feeling that as we, discussed before, I think that kind of modeling could model fire.

00:14:08.785 --> 00:14:09.535
<v Wolfram Jahn>It was possible.

00:14:09.745 --> 00:14:11.375
<v Wolfram Jahn>We had the model that was fds.

00:14:11.375 --> 00:14:15.013
<v Wolfram Jahn>It worked and actually it did work for some, some applications.

00:14:15.013 --> 00:14:16.013
<v Wolfram Jahn>It worked very well.

00:14:16.173 --> 00:14:19.475
<v Wolfram Jahn>you had, there was quite, quite a bit of validation, of the model.

00:14:19.475 --> 00:14:21.436
<v Wolfram Jahn>So it had been validated and it worked.

00:14:21.436 --> 00:14:29.296
<v Wolfram Jahn>So, um, I think there was, it was a very positive like feeling that we basically, there was a problem in a way.

00:14:29.615 --> 00:14:38.163
<v Wolfram Jahn>and I think that the big problem is, is actually a difference between, I always say that and Fire modeling and fire consequence modeling.

00:14:38.543 --> 00:14:40.803
<v Wolfram Jahn>And I think that's the key here.

00:14:40.803 --> 00:14:48.197
<v Wolfram Jahn>So you could back in the days and with FDS four, you could very well model the smoke movement if you

00:14:48.378 --> 00:14:48.988
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>mm-hmm.

00:14:49.197 --> 00:14:51.398
<v Wolfram Jahn>information about the fire, the hit release rate.

00:14:51.408 --> 00:14:51.898
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:14:52.024 --> 00:14:56.624
<v Wolfram Jahn>and that's, I think that's the key cuz that is what they didn't have for the round robin.

00:14:56.974 --> 00:15:08.927
<v Wolfram Jahn>They didn't have the all the, all the information the fire we gave them, well they, the amount of testers, I wasn't there at the time and I missed them by week.

00:15:09.288 --> 00:15:11.191
<v Wolfram Jahn>they gave them all the information.

00:15:11.458 --> 00:15:11.948
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:15:12.453 --> 00:15:17.158
<v Wolfram Jahn>the fire development couldn't be done even with all the information, not blindly.

00:15:17.302 --> 00:15:21.592
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah, but Wolfram you, just to highlight that this is a, we know this now,

00:15:21.702 --> 00:15:21.863
<v Wolfram Jahn>yeah.

00:15:22.863 --> 00:15:23.263
<v Wolfram Jahn>what I'm saying.

00:15:23.273 --> 00:15:27.219
<v Guillermo Rein>this, this is, this is what easy with we publish the paper.

00:15:27.219 --> 00:15:38.019
<v Guillermo Rein>This is what kept us busy with reviewers, the reviews were either saying, This is the best thing that I've read in 10 years, and the other one was saying, This is the worst thing I've read in.

00:15:38.339 --> 00:15:44.096
<v Guillermo Rein>Our editor was Professor Dougal Drysdale, who is known to be tremendously fair and dedicate time to the process.

00:15:44.145 --> 00:15:46.932
<v Guillermo Rein>So just to give you anm, we publish the paper, right?

00:15:47.102 --> 00:15:52.113
<v Guillermo Rein>So we get comments and we up rebutting twice the length of the paper.

00:15:52.578 --> 00:16:01.619
<v Guillermo Rein>have the paper, which is a big paper, and we, the rebuttals, with all the reviewer comments, only half of the reviewers one, it rebuttal lend that to twice the paper in thickness.

00:16:01.619 --> 00:16:06.418
<v Guillermo Rein>So actually we end up writing more toBut the reviewers than the paper itself.

00:16:07.183 --> 00:16:08.673
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That must have been a

00:16:08.734 --> 00:16:18.770
<v Wolfram Jahn>um, you know, this, it's been, it's I wouldn't say a lifelong struggle, but a little like a career long struggle is to convince people the problem is not the model as, as Guillermo said at the beginning.

00:16:18.857 --> 00:16:21.668
<v Wolfram Jahn>it's about the modeler or the modeling process.

00:16:24.216 --> 00:16:25.105
<v Wolfram Jahn>CFAs for that matter.

00:16:25.176 --> 00:16:35.782
<v Wolfram Jahn>They are, , perfectly well, suited certain purposes, but you have to know which are the, you know, what they are designed for, then you can use them.

00:16:35.782 --> 00:16:41.341
<v Wolfram Jahn>But, so when, when you criticize the, the modeling process, it shouldn't be understood as a critic.

00:16:42.172 --> 00:16:45.881
<v Wolfram Jahn>Or criticizing FDS or whatever of a simulation to what you have.

00:16:46.015 --> 00:16:47.625
<v Wolfram Jahn>It's about the modeling process.

00:16:48.306 --> 00:16:56.275
<v Wolfram Jahn>that's actually what, what came out as a result of all this, is that we have to be, you know, conscious about that process and where the limitations are.

00:16:56.275 --> 00:16:58.035
<v Wolfram Jahn>And I think people weren't conscious about it.

00:16:58.035 --> 00:16:58.515
<v Wolfram Jahn>They didn't know.

00:16:58.753 --> 00:16:59.216
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:16:59.216 --> 00:17:11.896
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So to give, um, the, probably all of people in the audience may hear the word  for the first time in the live, so, so let's give them a short introduction to what the fire did look like.

00:17:11.896 --> 00:17:14.757
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like whats actually the, the, the burning in the experiment?

00:17:14.886 --> 00:17:16.156
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Of course, the experiment.

00:17:16.166 --> 00:17:18.396
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It has, you have to give the credit.

00:17:18.487 --> 00:17:20.356
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It was a much bigger thing.

00:17:20.356 --> 00:17:23.780
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Ron, Robin and the CFD part is, Part of it.

00:17:24.161 --> 00:17:25.941
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, uh, there's a website of the project.

00:17:25.941 --> 00:17:27.461
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's many papers to be read.

00:17:27.461 --> 00:17:33.540
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There is the documentary tv, which you've mentioned GUI and I now need to find to link to the show notes.

00:17:33.540 --> 00:17:35.060
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>If I find it, it's gonna be brilliant.

00:17:35.550 --> 00:17:41.743
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>If I cannot find it legally, I'll steal it and then make a copy for anyone for the glory of fire science.

00:17:41.898 --> 00:17:43.499
<v Guillermo Rein>I have a copy in in CD

00:17:43.933 --> 00:17:44.423
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:17:44.733 --> 00:17:45.223
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:17:45.358 --> 00:17:47.269
<v Guillermo Rein>if it's the last resort I'll have a copy of.

00:17:47.374 --> 00:17:48.173
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Fantastic.

00:17:48.763 --> 00:17:49.973
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I have no remorse.

00:17:50.243 --> 00:17:51.294
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I live in Poland.

00:17:51.294 --> 00:17:51.773
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>No worries.

00:17:51.773 --> 00:17:52.693
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I I can steal that.

00:17:53.594 --> 00:17:56.854
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>put it in the internet for the, for the benefits of fire science.

00:17:57.044 --> 00:17:58.614
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I think it's actually important to do that.

00:17:58.683 --> 00:18:16.112
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Anyway, it was a huge project, but, uh, let's talk about the, The part that touched myself, which is the Ron Robin and the a CFD part, because this, we talked about it for, for years, about the reasons of the project, and there's a reason why inviting you here.

00:18:16.112 --> 00:18:18.551
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I had the CFD part in my mind.

00:18:18.551 --> 00:18:28.922
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I think this was something that if, if you ask a random fire scientist about Daher, they would probably refer to this, this part of the experiment because it, it aged the best of, of all of them for some reason.

00:18:29.301 --> 00:18:32.001
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>now let's go back to, I've asked you a question.

00:18:32.001 --> 00:18:32.922
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>What, what was burning?

00:18:32.922 --> 00:18:35.561
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So what was the fire load in the Dalmarnock no.

00:18:35.676 --> 00:18:38.717
<v Guillermo Rein>the, the objective of Darlmarnock was to have a real.

00:18:39.155 --> 00:18:45.056
<v Guillermo Rein>Not an experiment in a laboratory with a fake fuel or up fuel, no crib.

00:18:45.125 --> 00:18:52.818
<v Guillermo Rein>This was an attempt to do, I mean, there were already a few experiments of NIST and other people, we wanted to do one, British style, so to speak.

00:18:52.999 --> 00:18:57.058
<v Guillermo Rein>And it was a flat, a small flat with two bedrooms, one kitchen and one living room.

00:18:57.662 --> 00:19:01.182
<v Guillermo Rein>remember that two experiments and just focus on one is the same.

00:19:02.021 --> 00:19:04.461
<v Guillermo Rein>most of the action by far was in the living room.

00:19:04.561 --> 00:19:14.582
<v Guillermo Rein>The living room had a sofa, had a two bookshelves, had a table, had a a desk with a computer, with a chair, it had a little bit of decoration.

00:19:15.182 --> 00:19:16.461
<v Guillermo Rein>was a blanket on the sofa.

00:19:16.471 --> 00:19:20.429
<v Guillermo Rein>So it just tried to imitate a normal living room of a modern, flat.

00:19:20.746 --> 00:19:29.115
<v Guillermo Rein>every single element in the computers were from ikea, and we actually even have the names of Ikea and the year of manufacturing.

00:19:29.115 --> 00:19:31.596
<v Guillermo Rein>So it allows some reputability, so to speak.

00:19:31.961 --> 00:19:32.451
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:19:32.816 --> 00:19:35.476
<v Guillermo Rein>And if you see the photos, it looks modern, it looks very Ikea.

00:19:35.476 --> 00:19:37.756
<v Guillermo Rein>The only thing is this absolutely pack of sensors.

00:19:38.395 --> 00:19:41.395
<v Guillermo Rein>there are, there were sensors for the smoke that stand layer with lasers.

00:19:41.476 --> 00:19:47.135
<v Guillermo Rein>There were, string gauges in a replica of a stress steel stress like in the Wall Street Center.

00:19:47.336 --> 00:19:54.455
<v Guillermo Rein>There were a, the couple wires in the walls the center, uh, hit flex meters everywhere on the should face.

00:19:55.336 --> 00:19:57.576
<v Guillermo Rein>were cameras, CCTV cameras.

00:19:57.576 --> 00:19:58.816
<v Guillermo Rein>There were small detectors.

00:19:59.199 --> 00:19:59.989
<v Guillermo Rein>it was packed.

00:19:59.989 --> 00:20:00.749
<v Guillermo Rein>It was incredible.

00:20:00.749 --> 00:20:01.509
<v Guillermo Rein>It was very exciting.

00:20:01.509 --> 00:20:05.548
<v Guillermo Rein>You can imagine the amount of data that was produced out of those two experiments of 15 minutes.

00:20:05.868 --> 00:20:07.669
<v Guillermo Rein>we still have not processed all the data.

00:20:07.844 --> 00:20:09.634
<v Wolfram Jahn>It will never be guess

00:20:11.028 --> 00:20:11.999
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>that's beautiful.

00:20:12.484 --> 00:20:15.828
<v Wolfram Jahn>some they would've done some experiments previously to the,

00:20:16.544 --> 00:20:16.963
<v Guillermo Rein>yes.

00:20:17.403 --> 00:20:23.483
<v Wolfram Jahn>basically the sofa was burned, I think with the, um, under the hood basically to.

00:20:24.449 --> 00:20:26.759
<v Guillermo Rein>We bought three sofas of Ikea.

00:20:26.898 --> 00:20:27.318
<v Guillermo Rein>One.

00:20:27.499 --> 00:20:27.919
<v Guillermo Rein>One.

00:20:27.919 --> 00:20:29.479
<v Guillermo Rein>Each of the flats receive a float.

00:20:29.479 --> 00:20:29.878
<v Guillermo Rein>Four.

00:20:29.878 --> 00:20:30.118
<v Guillermo Rein>Okay.

00:20:30.118 --> 00:20:30.519
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah, it's true.

00:20:30.909 --> 00:20:32.239
<v Guillermo Rein>What happened to the fourth one?

00:20:32.239 --> 00:20:33.439
<v Guillermo Rein>Wall frame is not official,

00:20:33.834 --> 00:20:33.844
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:20:34.148 --> 00:20:34.919
<v Guillermo Rein>I don't know what happened.

00:20:34.919 --> 00:20:35.397
<v Guillermo Rein>That one.

00:20:35.397 --> 00:20:35.855
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah.

00:20:35.855 --> 00:20:41.185
<v Guillermo Rein>So the three I know, one of the sofa was burned in the lab and the laboratory conditions.

00:20:41.786 --> 00:20:43.586
<v Guillermo Rein>walls, no environments under the hood.

00:20:43.766 --> 00:20:51.846
<v Guillermo Rein>And the idea is to measure the heat release rate we measure the heat release rate and we provide the heat release rate the round robin participants.

00:20:52.135 --> 00:20:57.726
<v Guillermo Rein>So it's not that they have zero knowledge of what was going to be the far development is that we said in the lap.

00:20:58.486 --> 00:20:59.165
<v Guillermo Rein>is how it burns.

00:20:59.165 --> 00:21:00.286
<v Guillermo Rein>Free burning, right?

00:21:00.286 --> 00:21:02.486
<v Guillermo Rein>No smoke layer built up, uh, in the room.

00:21:02.486 --> 00:21:03.726
<v Guillermo Rein>No walls, no radi.

00:21:04.490 --> 00:21:09.230
<v Guillermo Rein>And, and the question is, with this information, how do you think it would behave if it were to be in a room?

00:21:09.482 --> 00:21:14.416
<v Wolfram Jahn>Yeah, but there was a difference though, because at the, during the tests, um, there was

00:21:14.567 --> 00:21:14.987
<v Guillermo Rein>Yes.

00:21:15.105 --> 00:21:18.984
<v Wolfram Jahn>so there was a waste basket next to the, so that was the ignition source.

00:21:19.459 --> 00:21:23.459
<v Wolfram Jahn>and the fire should spread to the, to the sofa, which it did under the hood.

00:21:23.469 --> 00:21:25.179
<v Wolfram Jahn>It worked, but it took quite a time.

00:21:26.848 --> 00:21:29.618
<v Wolfram Jahn>during the experience, they make it a bit faster.

00:21:29.689 --> 00:21:36.173
<v Wolfram Jahn>I think they put a blanket over the, , like hanging into the basket and kind of over the sofa.

00:21:36.383 --> 00:21:37.252
<v Wolfram Jahn>So that was

00:21:37.252 --> 00:21:41.472
<v Guillermo Rein>And Wolfram spend a significant amount of time simulating these blankets.

00:21:41.532 --> 00:21:44.972
<v Wolfram Jahn>out, because it, that was the end, it was quite important.

00:21:44.972 --> 00:21:53.578
<v Wolfram Jahn>And so we just, again, one of these things that you wouldn't think about beforehand, that was during the pre-flash over, one of the most

00:21:53.719 --> 00:21:53.838
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Hmm.

00:21:54.178 --> 00:22:01.661
<v Wolfram Jahn>Bits of, of information, and you say, Well, you didn't, So round Robin us just said, Well, you didn't give us this information.

00:22:01.661 --> 00:22:03.461
<v Wolfram Jahn>Well, yeah, but that's part of the,

00:22:03.663 --> 00:22:04.653
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>No one knew that.

00:22:04.653 --> 00:22:08.653
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like when you design a building, you don't ask where the rug will be lying, right?

00:22:08.837 --> 00:22:10.468
<v Guillermo Rein>No, but what this is important.

00:22:10.468 --> 00:22:17.540
<v Guillermo Rein>The thing is we can tell the story from as he was happening afterwards, because remember the Wolfram has spent half of his PhD doing the

00:22:17.935 --> 00:22:18.425
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:22:18.590 --> 00:22:20.941
<v Guillermo Rein>So Wolfram is telling you a hundred percent the truth.

00:22:21.111 --> 00:22:22.980
<v Guillermo Rein>It took him three years to figure out.

00:22:23.155 --> 00:22:23.645
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah,

00:22:23.760 --> 00:22:26.441
<v Wolfram Jahn>years with trying to, trying to get this published, it was just

00:22:28.151 --> 00:22:33.051
<v Guillermo Rein>it's true because we met reviewers, opinionated reviewers, also with the posterior Well,

00:22:34.590 --> 00:22:41.270
<v Wolfram Jahn>part of a year trying to, to figure out why was different from, why did, why it just didn't match.

00:22:41.641 --> 00:22:46.701
<v Wolfram Jahn>So it took me a year to match this and at the end it was as simple as I was just a blanket.

00:22:46.887 --> 00:22:50.557
<v Guillermo Rein>No, but wait, I, I want to frame this because I know how history can cast this.

00:22:50.688 --> 00:22:52.397
<v Guillermo Rein>So it is, it was the blankets, okay?

00:22:52.397 --> 00:22:57.538
<v Guillermo Rein>The blankets happened to be absolutely asension for predicting better, the fire.

00:22:58.258 --> 00:23:03.057
<v Guillermo Rein>thing is, this was not known to absolutely anyone, so it's not that we did it on purpose.

00:23:03.107 --> 00:23:04.057
<v Guillermo Rein>Oh, the secret blanket.

00:23:04.057 --> 00:23:07.018
<v Guillermo Rein>No, we have absolutely no idea that we were doing this by putting a blanket.

00:23:07.837 --> 00:23:20.280
<v Guillermo Rein>the second one is if the blanket changes the results from, I have it here from 500% wrong to 20% wrong, then we are doomed in modeling.

00:23:20.520 --> 00:23:21.131
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>that's.

00:23:21.320 --> 00:23:22.961
<v Guillermo Rein>I happen to believe that that's not the case.

00:23:23.070 --> 00:23:26.320
<v Guillermo Rein>I think that there are details that matter and there are details that do not matter.

00:23:26.540 --> 00:23:30.401
<v Guillermo Rein>And obviously in an immaterial science, like fire science, we have a lot of work.

00:23:31.230 --> 00:23:35.153
<v Guillermo Rein>What we should not be doing is, we should not be saying the blanket doesn't matter.

00:23:35.153 --> 00:23:40.114
<v Guillermo Rein>That's not true, and we should not say the blanket is the only thing that matters because that's not true either, right?

00:23:40.114 --> 00:23:46.433
<v Guillermo Rein>So there is a context, and in far science, we are dealing with such a complex phenomena that we cannot just focus on one element.

00:23:46.433 --> 00:23:52.090
<v Guillermo Rein>Unfortunately, we have to focus on all of them at the same time and decide little by little, which one's count and which ones countless.

00:23:52.090 --> 00:23:53.587
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I'm looking at the picture of the room.

00:23:53.587 --> 00:23:58.907
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, right now in front of my eyes, there's actually a 33 pages long paper about the instrumentation alone.

00:23:59.038 --> 00:24:04.627
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>To give an impression about , uh, what scale of, of, of instrumentation we're talking about.

00:24:04.887 --> 00:24:05.827
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I'm looking at the room.

00:24:05.827 --> 00:24:08.387
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's, uh, there's this, uh, couch with a blanket.

00:24:08.387 --> 00:24:09.028
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's.

00:24:09.268 --> 00:24:09.928
<v Guillermo Rein>The blanket

00:24:10.097 --> 00:24:14.167
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's the three, three wardrobes with some papers on them.

00:24:14.178 --> 00:24:23.673
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's a computer desk to actually, there are some chairs, computers, like random stuff you would find in the, in office, a plant, an Ike lamp.

00:24:23.673 --> 00:24:24.634
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I had an lamp like this.

00:24:24.943 --> 00:24:34.101
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I confirmed that Ike . So in indeed, a very normal, uh, space, an office space that you, you would have in in a building.

00:24:34.750 --> 00:24:37.438
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, so Let, let's go round, drop in now.

00:24:37.627 --> 00:24:42.518
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>What exactly did you give to like, Okay, so far we, it hit release rate, but what else?

00:24:42.911 --> 00:24:48.050
<v Guillermo Rein>Now we give them photos every single one of the items independently and

00:24:48.441 --> 00:24:48.931
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:24:49.171 --> 00:24:51.971
<v Guillermo Rein>gave them the, the catalog description of ikea.

00:24:51.990 --> 00:24:54.371
<v Guillermo Rein>Cuz they actually even give you the materials in ikea.

00:24:54.371 --> 00:25:00.371
<v Guillermo Rein>They could actually go to their local IKEA if they want and bite the same version of the element if they want.

00:25:00.371 --> 00:25:04.050
<v Guillermo Rein>No one did this, but they could, We gave them, we weighed some of the materials.

00:25:04.141 --> 00:25:05.931
<v Guillermo Rein>Uh, for example, the sofa we waited for.

00:25:05.931 --> 00:25:06.090
<v Guillermo Rein>Sure.

00:25:06.651 --> 00:25:09.961
<v Guillermo Rein>Uh, we gave them the heat release rate of the sofa burning the lab.

00:25:10.134 --> 00:25:12.084
<v Guillermo Rein>we actually, when we did the experiments,

00:25:12.394 --> 00:25:12.884
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:25:13.094 --> 00:25:16.084
<v Guillermo Rein>we never thought about this, that there was press coverage.

00:25:16.354 --> 00:25:30.374
<v Guillermo Rein>We, we didn't think about this problem, Robin, and we thought, oops, some modelers might be, good with social media to speak and might actually have seen the, the coverage, at that time we, we, to tell you the truth, we didn't know if it was going to ignite or not.

00:25:31.023 --> 00:25:37.463
<v Guillermo Rein>Obviously, I can tell you that no had the many fire, so it was probably going to ignite, but we just didn't know if it was going to ignite.

00:25:37.463 --> 00:25:41.503
<v Guillermo Rein>I mean, it was going to, it was going, is the fire going to spread across the sofa?

00:25:41.513 --> 00:25:54.488
<v Guillermo Rein>So anyway, so because it was press coverage, so we knew there was a fire, so we had to take our copies of the press coverage with some photos of the plume from the outside, and we give it to everyone and we say, Oh, by the way, and the, and the window, there was two windows.

00:25:55.000 --> 00:25:57.520
<v Guillermo Rein>second window was broken on purpose.

00:25:57.631 --> 00:25:59.961
<v Guillermo Rein>From the outside was Jose throwing a stone.

00:26:00.540 --> 00:26:05.161
<v Guillermo Rein>And we gave them the time at which Jose broke the window from the outside.

00:26:05.171 --> 00:26:08.961
<v Guillermo Rein>We didn't say what happened to any other window because that was not an intervention, right?

00:26:08.961 --> 00:26:13.371
<v Guillermo Rein>So the model is new that the fire happened and that the fire developed and there was some plume.

00:26:14.006 --> 00:26:20.648
<v Guillermo Rein>That someone from the outside broke a second window but they knew absolutely everything that was inside the room.

00:26:20.772 --> 00:26:26.093
<v Guillermo Rein>And then we asked them do farm modeling of this event and make predictions of the following variables.

00:26:26.093 --> 00:26:34.942
<v Guillermo Rein>And we said, Well, average temperature, local temperatures in the couple smoke the stand, flexes, obviously heat release rate.

00:26:34.942 --> 00:26:35.702
<v Guillermo Rein>That was the first one.

00:26:35.702 --> 00:26:36.742
<v Guillermo Rein>Time to flash over.

00:26:37.308 --> 00:26:38.229
<v Guillermo Rein>I think that's it, right?

00:26:38.229 --> 00:26:38.548
<v Guillermo Rein>Wellfront.

00:26:38.749 --> 00:26:39.429
<v Guillermo Rein>Anything else I'm missing?

00:26:39.479 --> 00:26:40.278
<v Wolfram Jahn>were the, the main.

00:26:40.532 --> 00:26:42.553
<v Guillermo Rein>Because what, these were the things that we could measure.

00:26:42.553 --> 00:26:44.353
<v Guillermo Rein>We didn't ask them to predict anything that we could

00:26:44.492 --> 00:26:45.094
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Mm-hmm.

00:26:45.094 --> 00:26:46.792
<v Guillermo Rein>and we said, just send this file.

00:26:46.893 --> 00:26:50.874
<v Guillermo Rein>And when you send the file, only when you send the file, we'll send you the data.

00:26:51.148 --> 00:26:51.638
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:26:51.638 --> 00:26:59.169
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So now, uh, going into, this, this predictions you've already tasted a little bit with 500% scatter, but we'll unravel that in a second.

00:26:59.528 --> 00:27:00.169
<v Guillermo Rein>actually 800.

00:27:00.209 --> 00:27:02.459
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It's on . Just come on.

00:27:02.769 --> 00:27:03.259
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:27:03.259 --> 00:27:03.538
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Nice.

00:27:04.068 --> 00:27:07.502
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Um, so first of all, the flashover, it grown.

00:27:07.502 --> 00:27:12.659
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The flashover has happened in this compartment, and it was like a fully developed fire that, self extinguished.

00:27:12.759 --> 00:27:14.098
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Was it quenched at some point?

00:27:14.719 --> 00:27:16.588
<v Guillermo Rein>No, it was, it was far good.

00:27:16.588 --> 00:27:17.068
<v Guillermo Rein>That can

00:27:17.144 --> 00:27:17.634
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:27:19.278 --> 00:27:19.719
<v Wolfram Jahn>I didn't

00:27:20.213 --> 00:27:22.503
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah, we, we've been there, done that.

00:27:22.554 --> 00:27:30.145
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, Fire Bri case in large fire ex, they, they're always becoming nervous at the interesting part for some reason,  Anyway.

00:27:30.193 --> 00:27:33.847
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>so, so let's talk Flashover, the predictions of the time of, of Flashover.

00:27:33.847 --> 00:27:49.897
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I think that it's, for me, myself, having the knowledge I have today, in terms of doing full scale experiments, like full scale experiments are unpredictable, like absolutely unpredictable, uh, especially when you model, uh, 382 square meter abar.

00:27:49.998 --> 00:27:50.417
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>But,

00:27:50.420 --> 00:27:52.086
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah, but Wojciech, Wojciech I have to

00:27:52.111 --> 00:27:52.601
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>yeah.

00:27:53.165 --> 00:27:54.326
<v Guillermo Rein>we got this comment very often.

00:27:54.516 --> 00:28:01.105
<v Guillermo Rein>Tell me in the literature, scientifically not opinion where that is set, but you just, I agree with what you said.

00:28:01.105 --> 00:28:09.625
<v Guillermo Rein>Tell me where in the scientific literature that is a statement that can be quantified as saying, This person is saying that large scale experiments cannot be.

00:28:09.861 --> 00:28:11.330
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>No, I, there there's none.

00:28:11.330 --> 00:28:15.851
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I, if you ask me the question five years ago, I would say we have perfect models to predict that.

00:28:15.911 --> 00:28:18.810
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And now after doing like 20 of these, I have no idea.

00:28:19.327 --> 00:28:28.248
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>it's so hard to predict Now what, what I want to say is the moment from the moment of Flashover to some certain extent of time, it becomes more predictable.

00:28:28.248 --> 00:28:31.647
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>You know, because then you just have all, all the stuff burning.

00:28:31.647 --> 00:28:37.580
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I think there's less variability because you have, it's essentially energy balance from that point onwards.

00:28:38.040 --> 00:28:43.901
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And to some extent the intensity of radiation inside the compartment, which probably is affected by many things.

00:28:43.901 --> 00:28:48.641
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>But, but from the flashover, it, it becomes to me more manageable.

00:28:48.859 --> 00:28:55.798
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>but then again, If I model my shopping mall and I model a Flashover mall, I did not a great job as a fire engineer.

00:28:56.128 --> 00:28:58.719
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So do not really commercially model these.

00:28:58.868 --> 00:29:04.638
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I don't care about a post flashover fire when designing my small control system, because that means I failed as an engineer.

00:29:05.074 --> 00:29:05.564
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah.

00:29:05.798 --> 00:29:17.625
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So I care about this earlier phase and now this earlier phase, as you said, a dish rack can change the, fire behavior and actually build up of the conditions inside the compartment that did lead to flashover.

00:29:17.625 --> 00:29:22.705
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That's an interesting, So this is why my first question is what was the scattering time to flashover?

00:29:22.705 --> 00:29:30.246
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Because it, in a way, is an umbrella of all the things that happen as the fire grows, to reach a certain, certain size.

00:29:30.246 --> 00:29:37.645
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, so this is why, like, uh, my immediate first, question, not, not temperature deviation, not, uh, smoke layer high,

00:29:37.763 --> 00:29:38.294
<v Guillermo Rein>a hundred.

00:29:38.448 --> 00:29:40.478
<v Guillermo Rein>It went to a hundred to 1,200

00:29:40.583 --> 00:29:41.073
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:29:41.073 --> 00:29:41.952
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That's a scatter.

00:29:42.080 --> 00:29:47.260
<v Guillermo Rein>and, and I want to emphasize this, but obviously you can go back to the paper and see the names of the team members.

00:29:47.280 --> 00:29:49.941
<v Guillermo Rein>And the great majority of them are really, really well known.

00:29:50.181 --> 00:29:59.922
<v Guillermo Rein>These were not a amateurs these, these were people that at the time and now were very famous and people will rely on them to have professional views on fire modeling.

00:30:00.468 --> 00:30:03.428
<v Guillermo Rein>we didn't get the best modelers or the most famous modelers.

00:30:03.634 --> 00:30:07.554
<v Guillermo Rein>because also I think these people, first, they didn't know us.

00:30:07.554 --> 00:30:09.594
<v Guillermo Rein>I mean, they said, Guillermo Who?, who is this guy?

00:30:09.634 --> 00:30:10.193
<v Guillermo Rein>Right?

00:30:10.193 --> 00:30:11.713
<v Guillermo Rein>This guy that just graduated.

00:30:11.891 --> 00:30:17.738
<v Guillermo Rein>and also they had an invested into this because we were going to show the results no matter what.

00:30:18.232 --> 00:30:18.353
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>hmm.

00:30:18.564 --> 00:30:23.034
<v Guillermo Rein>We, you, I think you mentioned this, we, we are not the first round robin in fire science project.

00:30:23.621 --> 00:30:26.175
<v Guillermo Rein>We are the first ones to go to publication.

00:30:26.175 --> 00:30:28.451
<v Guillermo Rein>There were at least two attempts before us.

00:30:29.111 --> 00:30:31.090
<v Guillermo Rein>The results were never shared with anyone.

00:30:31.550 --> 00:30:41.770
<v Guillermo Rein>Because when the room got together, they were so unhappy with the results that they themselves said they didn't sell, thought this will damage the field.

00:30:41.941 --> 00:30:44.211
<v Guillermo Rein>We cannot go public with this message.

00:30:44.990 --> 00:30:49.875
<v Guillermo Rein>And when we did the round Robin organizations in the beginning, we said, We are not going to back up.

00:30:50.478 --> 00:30:53.317
<v Guillermo Rein>we be accepted in journal, but this will go to our repository.

00:30:53.317 --> 00:30:54.557
<v Guillermo Rein>This will go to conference.

00:30:54.557 --> 00:30:58.758
<v Guillermo Rein>Maybe we are going to share the results of this no matter what.

00:30:59.040 --> 00:31:06.347
<v Guillermo Rein>And I think that might have made some modelers uncomfortable that they would not be able to deviate if things go bad.

00:31:06.367 --> 00:31:12.659
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The best round robin we, we have right now is a yearly contest to, to find the hit release of the Christmas tree.

00:31:12.659 --> 00:31:15.378
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, uh, and it's fun and there's a lot of scatter.

00:31:15.528 --> 00:31:26.752
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I wonder actually if there would be a value of gamification of, of this round robins and maybe just do them more often without, without hurting anyone because it, helps us understand our profession better.

00:31:26.883 --> 00:31:31.032
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, Wal firm, you said what was discussed from 80 seconds to 12 to.

00:31:31.198 --> 00:31:32.127
<v Wolfram Jahn>some didn't.

00:31:32.260 --> 00:31:34.314
<v Wolfram Jahn>never flashed over.

00:31:34.590 --> 00:31:35.330
<v Wolfram Jahn>but I think,

00:31:35.681 --> 00:31:36.381
<v Guillermo Rein>One of them

00:31:36.580 --> 00:31:41.134
<v Wolfram Jahn>um, I think the latest one, I'm just watching, seeing the graph here about 800 seconds.

00:31:41.134 --> 00:31:43.134
<v Wolfram Jahn>So it was between 80 and 800 seconds.

00:31:43.752 --> 00:31:45.042
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>that's a massive scatter.

00:31:45.548 --> 00:31:54.383
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>and the flashover is sensitive to the heat fluxes to ground the, the small layer high to some extent, and let's say flame spread over solid surfaces.

00:31:54.383 --> 00:31:58.022
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>But I, I guess the whole SFA would be on in fire at that point.

00:31:58.393 --> 00:32:03.663
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, uh, how it looked for the predictions of the heat fluxes and, and layer

00:32:04.191 --> 00:32:04.391
<v Guillermo Rein>disaster.

00:32:05.320 --> 00:32:08.463
<v Guillermo Rein>um, I mean, if one goes to the paper, we start with the heat release rate.

00:32:09.398 --> 00:32:13.538
<v Guillermo Rein>The predictions of the heat release rate cover a very wide range of predictions.

00:32:13.538 --> 00:32:14.098
<v Guillermo Rein>It's wild.

00:32:14.659 --> 00:32:22.538
<v Guillermo Rein>typically, when I present this, I always say any dynamics to the planet Earth here predicted you will have to go to Mars to get a different curve.

00:32:22.848 --> 00:32:23.818
<v Guillermo Rein>It's very broad.

00:32:23.959 --> 00:32:27.512
<v Guillermo Rein>And then in the middle of it, towards one side is towards low.

00:32:27.583 --> 00:32:30.633
<v Guillermo Rein>That is the experimental data with massive error barss.

00:32:31.026 --> 00:32:35.509
<v Guillermo Rein>wait, Wolf friend arrived one week late, so his predictions are not there.

00:32:35.838 --> 00:32:38.269
<v Guillermo Rein>My predictions, the predictions of my team are there.

00:32:38.439 --> 00:32:39.388
<v Guillermo Rein>We didn't do well.

00:32:39.949 --> 00:32:42.989
<v Guillermo Rein>just, you just, you just cannot tell exactly who.

00:32:42.989 --> 00:32:45.388
<v Guillermo Rein>You just know that the authors, all of them had models.

00:32:45.388 --> 00:32:47.909
<v Guillermo Rein>We just, on purpose, we didn't link authors and

00:32:47.999 --> 00:32:48.489
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:32:48.489 --> 00:32:48.648
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:32:48.648 --> 00:32:49.528
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That's not point

00:32:49.699 --> 00:32:50.388
<v Guillermo Rein>a different game.

00:32:50.439 --> 00:32:57.949
<v Guillermo Rein>So what I want to say is that when I say that the models didn't do well, just letting you know that we were there, I was involved personally in this and I didn't do well.

00:32:57.949 --> 00:32:58.189
<v Guillermo Rein>Okay?

00:32:58.189 --> 00:33:03.189
<v Guillermo Rein>So I feel, I feel that I'm fine and since then I continue using modeling as an engineer, as a scientist.

00:33:03.874 --> 00:33:07.278
<v Guillermo Rein>So it's not that I did this to end a tool, of science, quite the opposite.

00:33:07.278 --> 00:33:09.718
<v Guillermo Rein>I did this to bring balance to the tool, right?

00:33:09.718 --> 00:33:10.877
<v Guillermo Rein>Bring balance to the force.

00:33:11.208 --> 00:33:15.837
<v Guillermo Rein>If the force was on balance, I thought,  so I lost the,

00:33:15.962 --> 00:33:17.012
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah, the, the layer.

00:33:17.143 --> 00:33:19.373
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, so let's talk layer, layer heights and

00:33:19.563 --> 00:33:25.498
<v Guillermo Rein>the heat release rate we didn't do well and everybody knows that if you're not doing very well with the hi rate, it's not going to get better.

00:33:25.917 --> 00:33:27.097
<v Guillermo Rein>And, and it is true.

00:33:27.097 --> 00:33:27.857
<v Guillermo Rein>It didn't get better.

00:33:27.857 --> 00:33:30.137
<v Guillermo Rein>It just started to get worse and worse.

00:33:30.478 --> 00:33:40.147
<v Guillermo Rein>The average temperature of a compartment, average of a smoke layer do well, but it did as bad as the hi rate when you look into the smoke, the scent layer.

00:33:40.167 --> 00:33:44.748
<v Guillermo Rein>But yeah, I know you're very interested in the, descent layer is for how be inside.

00:33:44.748 --> 00:33:45.627
<v Guillermo Rein>It was a disaster

00:33:46.153 --> 00:33:46.272
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Hmm.

00:33:46.597 --> 00:33:47.377
<v Guillermo Rein>pro probably.

00:33:47.377 --> 00:33:52.698
<v Guillermo Rein>It is the worst all was an absolute random spaghetti plot of throw something at it.

00:33:52.698 --> 00:33:53.377
<v Guillermo Rein>It's incredible.

00:33:53.877 --> 00:33:57.157
<v Guillermo Rein>that was probably the, the most damaging result that we discover is.

00:33:58.127 --> 00:34:02.018
<v Guillermo Rein>an important variable for life safety, the extent of the smoke glacier.

00:34:02.518 --> 00:34:06.080
<v Guillermo Rein>And we cannot get it right or at least we for multiple reasons.

00:34:06.080 --> 00:34:06.480
<v Guillermo Rein>It's not our

00:34:06.586 --> 00:34:07.415
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, so sorry.

00:34:08.079 --> 00:34:09.958
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>the colors on the plots are consistent.

00:34:09.958 --> 00:34:11.639
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like the green group is the green group.

00:34:12.048 --> 00:34:18.239
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So actually on the plot of hit release rate, there's the green group who did fairly well on predicting hit through release rate

00:34:18.324 --> 00:34:18.523
<v Guillermo Rein>yeah.

00:34:18.523 --> 00:34:19.684
<v Guillermo Rein>Can I tell you a story of that one?

00:34:19.753 --> 00:34:21.643
<v Guillermo Rein>This, this ends.

00:34:21.693 --> 00:34:28.403
<v Guillermo Rein>So the green which I think I remember who they are, but I'm not even convinced and I lost the email, so I would not be able to tell you exactly.

00:34:28.983 --> 00:34:37.507
<v Guillermo Rein>But I remember that the green team should submit this simulation a few days before we close the folder and we saying, you cannot submit anything.

00:34:37.617 --> 00:34:39.748
<v Guillermo Rein>They send me an email and say, Guillermo peace please.

00:34:39.748 --> 00:34:40.347
<v Guillermo Rein>We take it back.

00:34:41.063 --> 00:34:45.213
<v Guillermo Rein>We want to remove the one that I send you and we want to add this new one.

00:34:45.273 --> 00:34:50.085
<v Guillermo Rein>And I thought, well, some groups like actually us, are not submitting one simulation.

00:34:50.085 --> 00:34:54.085
<v Guillermo Rein>We are, we're submitting an assemble saying that anything between these two is possible.

00:34:54.266 --> 00:34:55.646
<v Guillermo Rein>And they thought, Oh, that's really nice.

00:34:55.646 --> 00:34:55.965
<v Guillermo Rein>Yes.

00:34:55.965 --> 00:34:57.485
<v Guillermo Rein>And then please add these two.

00:34:58.036 --> 00:35:01.976
<v Guillermo Rein>And they wanted to remove one that they nailed the he release rate with.

00:35:02.300 --> 00:35:03.280
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The, the green one.

00:35:03.550 --> 00:35:04.041
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:35:04.041 --> 00:35:04.400
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:35:04.505 --> 00:35:08.226
<v Guillermo Rein>my summary for this is not even when we get it right.

00:35:08.226 --> 00:35:08.746
<v Guillermo Rein>We know

00:35:08.840 --> 00:35:10.951
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah, that makes it even better.

00:35:10.951 --> 00:35:18.871
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>What I wanted to point is that they nailed the heat release rate perfectly, but they were among the worst to predict the layer height, you know?

00:35:19.356 --> 00:35:20.675
<v Guillermo Rein>the lady height is not the

00:35:20.735 --> 00:35:22.815
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>but that, that's, that, that's so fascinating.

00:35:22.815 --> 00:35:29.896
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like, uh, it's not even about nailing this one parameter, you know, and, and you are sure your simulation's gonna be perfect.

00:35:29.925 --> 00:35:39.192
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It's such a conundrum of different, physical things happening, flow rates, velocities, inside pressure, so many things that affect your flow.

00:35:39.461 --> 00:35:49.192
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Even the, like, minuscule change in an external wind could turn the simulation around most likely, and you would not never know in inside of your simulation.

00:35:49.681 --> 00:35:50.952
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So that, that's fascinating.

00:35:50.952 --> 00:35:57.771
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And if you, obviously, if you didn't nail the layer height, you're never gonna get the, temperatures in, in the vertical plots of your

00:35:57.996 --> 00:36:01.476
<v Guillermo Rein>no, it was the other way around is they produced the temperatures and then from

00:36:01.481 --> 00:36:02.041
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>From that.

00:36:02.041 --> 00:36:02.961
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The they, the picture.

00:36:02.961 --> 00:36:03.601
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The, Okay.

00:36:03.601 --> 00:36:03.882
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:36:04.007 --> 00:36:04.927
<v Guillermo Rein>some people might have done.

00:36:04.927 --> 00:36:08.927
<v Guillermo Rein>The thing is we didn't say how they have to define this mo the layer height.

00:36:08.927 --> 00:36:14.733
<v Guillermo Rein>We said, this is how we measure lasers, and then it was each of the teams to decide, well, I want to do this.

00:36:15.458 --> 00:36:17.929
<v Guillermo Rein>We CFA this way with fds, this other way.

00:36:17.938 --> 00:36:19.849
<v Guillermo Rein>So we, we, we were not constrained.

00:36:19.849 --> 00:36:22.329
<v Guillermo Rein>We were not in given tiny little details.

00:36:22.329 --> 00:36:24.409
<v Guillermo Rein>We were not micromanaging the simulations.

00:36:24.409 --> 00:36:27.009
<v Guillermo Rein>We said, This is how we measure, do your best.

00:36:27.148 --> 00:36:30.329
<v Guillermo Rein>And they didn't do well, some of them, because of the definition of the layer height.

00:36:30.329 --> 00:36:31.208
<v Guillermo Rein>But that's part of the problem.

00:36:31.759 --> 00:36:35.969
<v Guillermo Rein>I cannot go back to people and say, Don't worry, I, your is super safe.

00:36:36.039 --> 00:36:44.369
<v Guillermo Rein>I designed myself with fds and I'm super famous and, and, and don't worry because, um, I'm the best at knowing how to define the layer height.

00:36:44.478 --> 00:36:45.648
<v Guillermo Rein>Like that's not the point.

00:36:45.648 --> 00:36:48.208
<v Guillermo Rein>The point is, no, it, it's not how I define it.

00:36:48.208 --> 00:36:49.929
<v Guillermo Rein>It has to be how the community thinks.

00:36:49.929 --> 00:36:50.809
<v Guillermo Rein>It's the best way to do it.

00:36:51.233 --> 00:36:53.284
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>a collective mind of the fire engineering.

00:36:53.784 --> 00:37:02.362
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, the oth the last variable that I wanted to talk, which also for me is, Not that, that huge variable, like the time to flashover would be important.

00:37:02.362 --> 00:37:06.001
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And from flashover it, it goes on in, in a very certain way.

00:37:06.001 --> 00:37:10.882
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Then after flashover your ventilation limited, the size of fire is what it is.

00:37:11.222 --> 00:37:13.161
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The smoke production size is what it is.

00:37:13.492 --> 00:37:22.742
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So in essence, at that point, you should pretty well nailed the, the, the hot layer temperature because that's basically the hit balance equation of your compartment again.

00:37:23.036 --> 00:37:36.052
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>and there's a massive scatter on the hot layer temperature after flash over as well, because I see groups who, uh, uh, never went above to 420 degrees, and there's a group we had 1200.

00:37:36.621 --> 00:37:47.172
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So that's a massive scatter in like the final temperature, maximum peak temperature, which in essence will be highly related to the damage to the structure of the building.

00:37:47.172 --> 00:37:49.411
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>No, no longer humans, but, but the structure right.

00:37:49.755 --> 00:37:57.791
<v Guillermo Rein>No, no, absolutely right, And, and We didn't do well, predicting average temperatures, but when we went into the local ones, it's very important.

00:37:57.791 --> 00:38:01.231
<v Guillermo Rein>Dalmarnock had the ability to look into several vertical,

00:38:01.996 --> 00:38:02.606
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Mm-hmm.

00:38:03.072 --> 00:38:04.152
<v Guillermo Rein>with the couples.

00:38:04.152 --> 00:38:05.192
<v Guillermo Rein>We did, we did even worse.

00:38:05.242 --> 00:38:07.311
<v Guillermo Rein>So the scatter is, is grows.

00:38:08.192 --> 00:38:15.349
<v Guillermo Rein>of the conclusions of the round Rogan is we did robin average predictions, but we did even worse with the local predictions.

00:38:15.746 --> 00:38:16.317
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I hope.

00:38:16.362 --> 00:38:19.922
<v Guillermo Rein>flexes also fall into the realm of the local ones and in the world.

00:38:20.101 --> 00:38:26.402
<v Guillermo Rein>Now, all this is really sad, but then Wolfram comes in and, and he was able to improve this tremendously.

00:38:26.402 --> 00:38:28.081
<v Guillermo Rein>I mean, he literally turn around everything,

00:38:28.427 --> 00:38:28.916
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:38:28.947 --> 00:38:29.797
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Save the day.

00:38:29.952 --> 00:38:40.014
<v Guillermo Rein>he did it because Wolfram did not submit his papers to publication until he minimized the errors between his predictions and the experiments because he had access to the experiments.

00:38:40.041 --> 00:38:41.032
<v Guillermo Rein>He knew what.

00:38:41.445 --> 00:38:47.213
<v Wolfram Jahn>So I had, I had all the results and I tried to find the heat release rate that would give me the match between the type.

00:38:47.668 --> 00:38:48.159
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:38:48.373 --> 00:39:00.773
<v Wolfram Jahn>what we did, and after that actually, and that's the, fourth sofa, um, is that we, there was another one burned afterwards and I had, I had two sets of experiments for the heat release rate, to choose from for my poster modeling.

00:39:01.313 --> 00:39:06.673
<v Wolfram Jahn>And none of them worked Um, and they had quite, quite a big scatter as well.

00:39:06.673 --> 00:39:12.434
<v Wolfram Jahn>I mean, the difference between those two tests, in terms of heat release rate was over 200% as well.

00:39:12.849 --> 00:39:14.358
<v Guillermo Rein>So you mean Well fine.

00:39:14.358 --> 00:39:16.918
<v Guillermo Rein>You mean the sofa burn outside the flat?

00:39:17.518 --> 00:39:18.708
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>In the color measure, in,

00:39:18.849 --> 00:39:27.161
<v Guillermo Rein>So you, you, so are saying that, and just to recasting your question, you're saying we did not measure the HIEs rate in the experiment itself we didn't have the ability to measure.

00:39:27.715 --> 00:39:30.257
<v Guillermo Rein>We could not measure hi release rate before Flashover.

00:39:30.257 --> 00:39:37.016
<v Guillermo Rein>We could measure hi rate after Flashover by assuming that all the oxygen was consumed and we had meters the vents.

00:39:37.197 --> 00:39:42.257
<v Guillermo Rein>But until Flashover, we didn't know the HI release rate and Guam is saying he needed it obviously.

00:39:42.456 --> 00:39:43.757
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>For the initial phase.

00:39:44.106 --> 00:39:44.597
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:39:44.657 --> 00:39:45.577
<v Guillermo Rein>interface for the growth phase.

00:39:45.827 --> 00:39:49.264
<v Guillermo Rein>So he went back the only two experiments, that existed.

00:39:49.264 --> 00:39:50.184
<v Guillermo Rein>One I want to highlight.

00:39:50.184 --> 00:39:51.784
<v Guillermo Rein>One was official, the other one was

00:39:51.884 --> 00:39:52.123
<v Wolfram Jahn>other one

00:39:52.244 --> 00:39:53.094
<v Guillermo Rein>unofficial.

00:39:53.724 --> 00:39:57.090
<v Wolfram Jahn>we, we did the, the second one for this posterior modeling.

00:39:57.626 --> 00:39:57.827
<v Guillermo Rein>perfect.

00:39:57.827 --> 00:39:58.226
<v Guillermo Rein>Okay,

00:39:58.376 --> 00:39:58.777
<v Wolfram Jahn>we, went,

00:39:58.907 --> 00:39:59.586
<v Guillermo Rein>it's not, Okay, perfect.

00:39:59.586 --> 00:40:00.666
<v Guillermo Rein>So it's not part of the round robin.

00:40:01.179 --> 00:40:01.778
<v Wolfram Jahn>we did this again.

00:40:01.778 --> 00:40:11.548
<v Wolfram Jahn>But what I'm, what I'm trying to say is that the heat release rate of those two experiments, only the sofa burning under the hood were tremendously different as well.

00:40:11.940 --> 00:40:19.048
<v Wolfram Jahn>and that's, that was when we concluded it was the, the blanket that made the difference because it, it kind of accelerated the growth.

00:40:19.778 --> 00:40:25.739
<v Wolfram Jahn>So, And it wasn't just the, load of the added, was the, increased growth rate of the, of the,

00:40:26.286 --> 00:40:27.695
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I have to stop you for one second.

00:40:27.786 --> 00:40:37.588
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Wolfram, when you say that, the blanket influenced it, you meant that the, the growth, the speed to time to reach the flashover, but the blanket had no, I, the blanket had no impact.

00:40:37.588 --> 00:40:40.668
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That post flashover temperatures, the blanket had no impact.

00:40:40.668 --> 00:40:41.668
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That spoke layer heights.

00:40:41.798 --> 00:40:43.545
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, so is important to, to.

00:40:43.655 --> 00:40:43.735
<v Wolfram Jahn>yeah.

00:40:43.735 --> 00:40:44.376
<v Wolfram Jahn>This was.

00:40:44.596 --> 00:40:47.028
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Let's not give an impression that the, the blanket broke.

00:40:47.085 --> 00:40:47.646
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>the modeling.

00:40:48.445 --> 00:40:49.365
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>a tiny variable.

00:40:49.365 --> 00:40:49.766
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:40:49.898 --> 00:40:51.065
<v Wolfram Jahn>And that was a tiny blanket.

00:40:51.065 --> 00:40:52.139
<v Wolfram Jahn>I mean, it wasn't, it wasn't.

00:40:53.164 --> 00:40:55.704
<v Guillermo Rein>And the case, this happens to all of us, right?

00:40:55.704 --> 00:40:59.063
<v Guillermo Rein>What takes us the most time is the one that we want to talk about most.

00:40:59.123 --> 00:41:06.923
<v Guillermo Rein>The blanket was a big thing for Wolfram and actually was a breakthrough when, and I want to say this is important, he confirmed this scientifically.

00:41:07.574 --> 00:41:10.184
<v Guillermo Rein>It's not that he had an opinion, which he obviously has.

00:41:10.184 --> 00:41:18.141
<v Guillermo Rein>It is he scientifically can prove to anyone that wants to listen to him that it was the blanket that offset growth face.

00:41:18.141 --> 00:41:21.061
<v Guillermo Rein>And the growth face means that flashover happens later.

00:41:21.311 --> 00:41:23.541
<v Guillermo Rein>It means that the time of burning is different.

00:41:23.541 --> 00:41:25.501
<v Guillermo Rein>I mean, if you don't get the, the, the

00:41:25.565 --> 00:41:26.146
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The answer.

00:41:26.146 --> 00:41:26.666
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The flasher.

00:41:26.666 --> 00:41:26.826
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:41:27.021 --> 00:41:27.380
<v Guillermo Rein>changes.

00:41:28.025 --> 00:41:29.226
<v Wolfram Jahn>it's very sensitive to that.

00:41:29.259 --> 00:41:32.811
<v Wolfram Jahn>yeah, so we had these two sets of experiments as an input for our model.

00:41:32.811 --> 00:41:46.126
<v Wolfram Jahn>So now we have the, and none of them were, so we, as I said, we, we started to, figure out how to, you know, how to model this by comparing temperatures and came up with a blanket at, at some point we found a heat release rate curve.

00:41:46.458 --> 00:42:01.291
<v Wolfram Jahn>They included this blanket, which we didn't have the data for, was, was a kind of an, we just knew that there was a blanket and we, recreated this and then we suddenly were able to, to match temperatures to a very good degree.

00:42:01.480 --> 00:42:07.708
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And by matching means you, you like this is the 20% point, the one where you almost got it right.

00:42:07.784 --> 00:42:07.943
<v Wolfram Jahn>we

00:42:07.978 --> 00:42:08.869
<v Guillermo Rein>20%

00:42:08.983 --> 00:42:10.414
<v Wolfram Jahn>um, average temperature

00:42:10.579 --> 00:42:10.858
<v Guillermo Rein>50.

00:42:11.724 --> 00:42:24.101
<v Wolfram Jahn>time temperature curves that matched, Um, and then we had at certain times where the, you know, basically what, what we, we, we selected certain points in time where

00:42:24.331 --> 00:42:24.940
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Mm-hmm.

00:42:25.260 --> 00:42:31.661
<v Wolfram Jahn>temperature in the compartment that we simulated was very close to the one that was measured

00:42:32.791 --> 00:42:33.400
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Mm-hmm.

00:42:33.565 --> 00:42:39.811
<v Wolfram Jahn>times we the local temperature distribution and in h and, space basically.

00:42:40.088 --> 00:42:41.186
<v Wolfram Jahn>and it was consistent.

00:42:41.356 --> 00:42:46.876
<v Wolfram Jahn>So we had good results and obviously within, certain ranges, let's say.

00:42:46.925 --> 00:42:49.596
<v Wolfram Jahn>Um, but we had good consistent results with that.

00:42:49.596 --> 00:43:08.061
<v Wolfram Jahn>So again, I, I think this is, it's important to say that model that we use in that case and that this scale was FDS four, once we had the heat release rate and we had masked at that bit, could actually make good predictions and which says okay, the, the model is not the problem.

00:43:08.465 --> 00:43:16.952
<v Wolfram Jahn>So we can kind of predict the of, of, of hot air and you know, of gases once we knew drives them.

00:43:17.481 --> 00:43:21.376
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So I guess that, that, that was a relief relief moment for a model is that, uh,

00:43:21.577 --> 00:43:21.777
<v Guillermo Rein>what

00:43:21.856 --> 00:43:22.257
<v Wolfram Jahn>all be happy.

00:43:22.427 --> 00:43:27.416
<v Wolfram Jahn>Um, but they weren't, uh, it took us quite, quite a bit convincing of getting this published

00:43:27.960 --> 00:43:32.715
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>now looking at the results of, of your posterior study, uh, which is interesting.

00:43:33.050 --> 00:43:39.231
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I see that the heat rate is a, is fairly close match the temperature, I assume that's the average layer.

00:43:39.231 --> 00:43:43.992
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Temperature is, is pretty close match, at least for the most of the, of the simulated time.

00:43:44.748 --> 00:43:50.001
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>individual profiles are still like very different and different in a particular way.

00:43:50.001 --> 00:44:04.282
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That in some cases, yeah, in some, some of them, especially the ones nearing openings, doors and the windows, where in simulation you would have, uh, actually observed two layer behavior and in measurements you didn't like.

00:44:04.282 --> 00:44:08.561
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It seems like a layer and, and a strong flow on the, on the floor.

00:44:08.677 --> 00:44:08.956
<v Guillermo Rein>Right?

00:44:08.992 --> 00:44:09.481
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:44:09.612 --> 00:44:10.288
<v Wolfram Jahn>I mean, yeah.

00:44:10.288 --> 00:44:12.440
<v Guillermo Rein>But he reduced this cutter tremendously.

00:44:12.440 --> 00:44:16.717
<v Guillermo Rein>I mean, if if you read the two papers together, the improvement is tremendous.

00:44:16.726 --> 00:44:22.771
<v Guillermo Rein>So, I, it's something that I want to highlight because I know how history is written one of the reasons what we wanted to do round robin.

00:44:23.451 --> 00:44:34.061
<v Guillermo Rein>main objective actually is, something that is modern now, you intelligence, everybody's talking about not in far science everywhere, and that they say they have a replication crisis, right?

00:44:34.061 --> 00:44:37.541
<v Guillermo Rein>That no one, most people cannot replicate the studies of the other.

00:44:37.862 --> 00:44:43.320
<v Guillermo Rein>Well, I had a replication crisis of my own when I was studying CFD fire modeling.

00:44:43.920 --> 00:44:50.840
<v Guillermo Rein>thought I could not replicate most of the results that I was seeing from colleagues in their, in papers, in papers.

00:44:50.840 --> 00:44:51.721
<v Guillermo Rein>This is very important.

00:44:52.331 --> 00:44:58.920
<v Guillermo Rein>No, I, I was in these beautiful papers with these beautiful predictions of the experiment and I was trying myself and I was crap.

00:44:59.010 --> 00:45:03.041
<v Guillermo Rein>So when I was, I was obviously telling to myself, Guillermo that's because you're a crap modeler.

00:45:03.800 --> 00:45:06.960
<v Guillermo Rein>and then when I was talking to some people, some people said, I confirmed this.

00:45:06.960 --> 00:45:10.925
<v Guillermo Rein>It's because you're a crap model of thought, I thought, Are you sure?

00:45:10.925 --> 00:45:11.646
<v Guillermo Rein>Are you sure?

00:45:11.646 --> 00:45:16.766
<v Guillermo Rein>Because how come all these beautiful papers are published and so few people can replicate the results?

00:45:16.896 --> 00:45:26.811
<v Guillermo Rein>So I do think at that time that we had a replication crisis as well, I wanted right, the round robin of farm modeling to, to show to everybody fire we do have a crisis.

00:45:27.452 --> 00:45:39.731
<v Guillermo Rein>it's not that we as independently are crab modelers, it's that farm modeling is even harder fire science because you, you need to master fire science in order to master fire modeling.

00:45:39.911 --> 00:45:44.092
<v Guillermo Rein>And fire science is in mature field that is just developing a few decades ago.

00:45:44.231 --> 00:45:50.811
<v Guillermo Rein>And farm modeling, an absolutely essential tool that everybody should be embracing, is just not the pan affair.

00:45:51.411 --> 00:45:53.331
<v Guillermo Rein>not just a, a magic ball that we have.

00:45:53.331 --> 00:45:55.371
<v Guillermo Rein>We touch a bottom and they give you results.

00:45:55.371 --> 00:45:56.572
<v Guillermo Rein>The results look amazing.

00:45:57.032 --> 00:45:59.731
<v Guillermo Rein>But that doesn't mean always that the results are

00:46:00.067 --> 00:46:12.646
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, and Dalmarnock papers were probably the first ones who shown that on a plate, Look at this scatter and tell me it's otherwise like, it's so obvious looking at the spaghetti plots that, that, uh, you are just right.

00:46:12.646 --> 00:46:24.123
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I, I have this experience from the other side from trying to make my experiments as high fidelity as well controlled as I can and then replicate them with cfd.

00:46:24.583 --> 00:46:26.563
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I absolutely unable to do that.

00:46:26.563 --> 00:46:29.454
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like with, uh, with colleagues from Juelich Forszungzentrum.

00:46:29.474 --> 00:46:40.164
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>They were trying to match visibility in smoke with a very highly controlled experiment of n-Heptan in a very specific 10 by 10 by four meter toll room.

00:46:40.664 --> 00:46:42.603
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I, I have good experience.

00:46:42.603 --> 00:46:46.083
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It's, it's one of the most repeatable experiment.

00:46:46.273 --> 00:46:50.146
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like I can match the temperatures to like five degrees cel.

00:46:50.677 --> 00:46:55.456
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Experimentally doing the test here and in Germany, this is how repetitive the test is.

00:46:55.456 --> 00:46:58.856
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I've done it 10 of times and they are unable to model it.

00:46:58.856 --> 00:47:06.027
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>They, they get the, the, the error invisibility, 500% modest error of the most important variable we use for the design.

00:47:06.476 --> 00:47:29.956
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>there, there are people who are trying to model, simple heat transfer even, and they, they're getting errors of hundred percent because when you really, really want to solve a heat transfer on a vertical boundary and you stop using a number of whatever, 25, or sorry, the, the heat transfer coefficient based on whatever you, you have, but really that in mind, what is the value of heat transfer coefficient?

00:47:30.547 --> 00:47:31.356
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Here you go.

00:47:31.356 --> 00:47:33.048
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Scatter of 300%.

00:47:33.048 --> 00:47:36.829
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The more precise you go with modeling, the, the harder it is to really nail it.

00:47:36.829 --> 00:47:36.989
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Right.

00:47:37.344 --> 00:47:38.833
<v Wolfram Jahn>yeah, but I think that that's,

00:47:38.878 --> 00:47:39.719
<v Guillermo Rein>which makes.

00:47:40.014 --> 00:47:44.474
<v Wolfram Jahn>the good bit cuz that that's actually, model and that has been improving.

00:47:44.474 --> 00:47:45.273
<v Wolfram Jahn>So I think there's

00:47:45.829 --> 00:47:46.679
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>yeah, true.

00:47:46.954 --> 00:47:47.514
<v Wolfram Jahn>towards

00:47:47.679 --> 00:47:48.449
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That's true.

00:47:48.449 --> 00:47:48.809
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:47:48.873 --> 00:47:52.594
<v Wolfram Jahn>there's some intrinsic problem with modeling because you.

00:47:53.664 --> 00:47:56.554
<v Wolfram Jahn>I mean, there's some bits you can't predict, basically.

00:47:56.813 --> 00:48:04.661
<v Wolfram Jahn>And you have to, I think you have to, to separate that and clearly, so this is, you know, the, the fire models are very, very good these days.

00:48:04.918 --> 00:48:07.061
<v Wolfram Jahn>but there's still lots of room for

00:48:07.255 --> 00:48:11.036
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>But the Okay, but the input is still, The input is still bullshit.

00:48:11.371 --> 00:48:11.731
<v Wolfram Jahn>it better.

00:48:11.731 --> 00:48:15.570
<v Wolfram Jahn>But, but there's another bit doesn't even depend on that.

00:48:15.570 --> 00:48:20.748
<v Wolfram Jahn>It's just that we don't know, what the heat release rate will be, blindly beforehand.

00:48:21.387 --> 00:48:26.467
<v Wolfram Jahn>and, and we have to somehow come up with a way to model that and, and that will influence the results.

00:48:26.688 --> 00:48:30.588
<v Wolfram Jahn>And I think you have to be very, conscious about that, that you

00:48:30.601 --> 00:48:32.514
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And it's not even heat rate only.

00:48:32.514 --> 00:48:33.793
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's many parameters.

00:48:33.793 --> 00:48:34.474
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Suit yields.

00:48:34.474 --> 00:48:34.914
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:48:35.244 --> 00:48:35.733
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah.

00:48:35.733 --> 00:48:38.583
<v Guillermo Rein>but this is, this is becoming set for me.

00:48:38.753 --> 00:48:42.264
<v Guillermo Rein>So the comment about the hi release rate is a hundred percent true, right?

00:48:42.264 --> 00:48:44.344
<v Guillermo Rein>If we don't know the hi release rate, we are in trouble.

00:48:44.914 --> 00:48:50.653
<v Guillermo Rein>And this was one of the main arguments of some of the reviewers that we have to go through over months and months of time.

00:48:50.873 --> 00:49:03.853
<v Guillermo Rein>And at the end we said, Of course we, I mean actually that margin of ground robin shows this, that if you don't get the heat release rate right, then you are losing tremendous amount of ground to do predictions of anything else.

00:49:04.313 --> 00:49:10.231
<v Guillermo Rein>But is absolutely no study in the whole literature where this is shown or set.

00:49:10.465 --> 00:49:22.331
<v Guillermo Rein>So this is one of the things where we uh, when we have a coffee, we are meeting in the lunch of the conference, we all are in agreement, but when it is time to go public to humanity, then absolute silence, right?

00:49:22.331 --> 00:49:23.490
<v Guillermo Rein>It becomes like this deep, the.

00:49:24.090 --> 00:49:26.831
<v Guillermo Rein>You don't have the hit rate, you cannot predict.

00:49:26.860 --> 00:49:28.791
<v Guillermo Rein>It's like tell them they need to know.

00:49:28.791 --> 00:49:32.751
<v Guillermo Rein>You know that it is a built environment where people live, where the buildings are done with people, right?

00:49:33.001 --> 00:49:35.271
<v Guillermo Rein>So we tell to we talk is revere.

00:49:35.271 --> 00:49:36.990
<v Guillermo Rein>At some point we, I will publish the rebuttals.

00:49:37.021 --> 00:49:42.510
<v Guillermo Rein>I said, Of course it's true, and you can now cite this paper show scientifically that is true.

00:49:42.721 --> 00:49:45.431
<v Guillermo Rein>In the meantime, no one could cite anything about this.

00:49:45.570 --> 00:49:45.990
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yep.

00:49:46.326 --> 00:49:46.766
<v Wolfram Jahn>happened to me?

00:49:46.775 --> 00:49:47.126
<v Wolfram Jahn>Um,

00:49:47.601 --> 00:49:47.951
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Go.

00:49:48.286 --> 00:49:52.413
<v Wolfram Jahn>the round robin paper, So I, we were hired as, as an expert in a, in a trial.

00:49:53.043 --> 00:49:54.353
<v Wolfram Jahn>So we did some fire model.

00:49:54.353 --> 00:49:57.528
<v Wolfram Jahn>It was about, showing a timeline in a fire that happened.

00:49:57.934 --> 00:50:09.672
<v Wolfram Jahn>and it was, there was smoke scene at some point in a camera, we had to basically come up with the, time that the fire started or, or, or reached a certain, um, so it was, it was basic.

00:50:10.322 --> 00:50:12.112
<v Wolfram Jahn>We had a very good idea of what happened.

00:50:12.362 --> 00:50:16.952
<v Wolfram Jahn>It was, you know, it was basically smoke So we, we were quite confident we could do that very well.

00:50:17.572 --> 00:50:29.369
<v Wolfram Jahn>so in the trial, I presented my, my results and, and you know, very confidently so that the lawyer, no idea about fire, you know, and she used the round robin paper against me.

00:50:29.369 --> 00:50:31.809
<v Wolfram Jahn>She said, You said you can't.

00:50:31.918 --> 00:50:34.898
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>How dare you use my own spells against me.

00:50:34.969 --> 00:50:35.329
<v Wolfram Jahn>amazing.

00:50:35.329 --> 00:50:47.688
<v Wolfram Jahn>I, I, I wanted to congratulate her because, you know, she, she used my paper to, to, to, to invalidate my, my, my expert, which I mean from, it was very, very well played.

00:50:47.882 --> 00:50:51.166
<v Wolfram Jahn>obviously my answer was, you know, in this case I knew what happened.

00:50:51.166 --> 00:50:55.789
<v Wolfram Jahn>I knew the heat, his weight, and I just was modeling the, result so with stiff.

00:50:56.389 --> 00:51:02.552
<v Wolfram Jahn>you know, the fact that she, um, had that and, and had, you know, had found me saying that,

00:51:02.599 --> 00:51:03.728
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>A small victory, right?

00:51:04.068 --> 00:51:04.599
<v Wolfram Jahn>I think it.

00:51:05.159 --> 00:51:11.079
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, we are nearing the, the end of the episode, so probably the, the most important question.

00:51:11.548 --> 00:51:13.318
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>What, what was the lessons for you?

00:51:13.318 --> 00:51:16.239
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like how did it change you as a scientist?

00:51:16.418 --> 00:51:17.199
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>You go first.

00:51:18.324 --> 00:51:21.630
<v Guillermo Rein>it had massive effect on me, in a way, very, extremely positive.

00:51:22.349 --> 00:51:31.789
<v Guillermo Rein>it make me, made my profile visible because so many people had strong opinions about the of them hated it, half of them love it.

00:51:31.789 --> 00:51:46.275
<v Guillermo Rein>It was one of these topics that you go into a room and the room is not the same Afterwards, I had to discuss one-on-one, these results with many known people, and that helped me know them and know their views, which is that otherwise people will have to spend years.

00:51:47.059 --> 00:51:56.900
<v Guillermo Rein>Uh, it gave me confidence of the things that I can predict that, that I can expect, and that the group that my, my group can expect from modeling, not just fire modeling, but modeling in, in general.

00:51:57.121 --> 00:52:01.061
<v Guillermo Rein>For example, uncertainty became very important for us, for the, my whole career.

00:52:01.061 --> 00:52:04.300
<v Guillermo Rein>Not, not only experimental uncertainty, but the modeling uncertainty.

00:52:05.081 --> 00:52:10.541
<v Guillermo Rein>The fact that there are some parameters that we don't know that, and that it creates uncertainty, your predictions.

00:52:10.541 --> 00:52:18.860
<v Guillermo Rein>And since then, in most papers that I can remember, I hope, we have always had uncertainty in the modeling and uncertainty in the experiments especially.

00:52:18.860 --> 00:52:20.221
<v Guillermo Rein>And we, we compare the two of them, right?

00:52:20.221 --> 00:52:22.021
<v Guillermo Rein>Because we aim for the intersection of the two.

00:52:22.306 --> 00:52:24.306
<v Guillermo Rein>we just don't have a model one simulation.

00:52:24.987 --> 00:52:28.896
<v Guillermo Rein>also another thing that we embrace with Wal firm actually as well, is the value of ensemble.

00:52:29.447 --> 00:52:39.657
<v Guillermo Rein>It's not just as we have one simulation, it's that we have a group of simulations and we say in between things will be valid because we are just not sure of what, what would happen.

00:52:39.657 --> 00:52:39.936
<v Guillermo Rein>Right?

00:52:39.996 --> 00:52:44.376
<v Guillermo Rein>And this is something that the war en symbol, the first time that is used is in, in Wolframs thesis, I believe.

00:52:44.811 --> 00:52:47.887
<v Guillermo Rein>before we had the concept, but we don't have the term, so then we call it symbol.

00:52:47.887 --> 00:52:48.407
<v Guillermo Rein>Since then,

00:52:48.827 --> 00:52:55.126
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And your view on engineering through the, through the glass of, of Ook, through the filter of ook.

00:52:55.306 --> 00:53:01.086
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>How, how did you view the fire engineering afterwards in which the modeling is such a profound part of it?

00:53:01.086 --> 00:53:02.380
<v Guillermo Rein>I, I don't think it changes.

00:53:02.670 --> 00:53:05.190
<v Guillermo Rein>what it, it created created a even discussion.

00:53:05.190 --> 00:53:22.166
<v Guillermo Rein>You could see discussions where people were saying authorities and other experts and forensic trials like Wolfram, where suddenly the value of modeling was, discussed as opposed to be taken as, uh, no, top of the science half spoken as, Look, we have this paper here.

00:53:22.166 --> 00:53:23.367
<v Guillermo Rein>What, what do you think of this?

00:53:23.617 --> 00:53:25.166
<v Guillermo Rein>So it created more discussions.

00:53:25.166 --> 00:53:28.646
<v Guillermo Rein>I don't think it changed modeling, continue developing tremendously.

00:53:29.177 --> 00:53:34.327
<v Guillermo Rein>Uh, maybe, maybe we help let it a little bit with a grain of salt to make it more mature, more.

00:53:34.797 --> 00:53:35.726
<v Guillermo Rein>More professional?

00:53:35.726 --> 00:53:39.206
<v Guillermo Rein>No, what I said before is we thought we wanted to bring balance to the force.

00:53:39.206 --> 00:53:43.047
<v Guillermo Rein>CFD modeling is a force, it's one of the three forces of science.

00:53:43.577 --> 00:53:45.407
<v Guillermo Rein>So maybe it was a little bit on balance.

00:53:45.514 --> 00:53:51.764
<v Guillermo Rein>I think in, in the, in the beginning of the century, maybe Dalmarnock helped a tiny little bit to bring balance to the force.

00:53:52.329 --> 00:53:54.869
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And for your all firm, how did it change you?

00:53:55.239 --> 00:53:55.989
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Is your PhD?

00:53:55.989 --> 00:53:58.028
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Does it, So change you from Master to Doctor

00:53:58.449 --> 00:53:58.938
<v Wolfram Jahn>yeah.

00:53:59.818 --> 00:54:07.342
<v Wolfram Jahn>much the same as, I think, you know, the round rowing per se was a bit of a, curse and a blessing at the same time.

00:54:07.342 --> 00:54:16.871
<v Wolfram Jahn>So, um, it brought a lot of problems, um, with people Yeah, because you were, was always perceived as an attack to the software,

00:54:17.516 --> 00:54:18.007
<v Guillermo Rein>Yeah.

00:54:18.242 --> 00:54:18.802
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uhhuh,

00:54:19.371 --> 00:54:19.791
<v Wolfram Jahn>And

00:54:19.802 --> 00:54:20.922
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>which wasn't okay.

00:54:20.992 --> 00:54:24.141
<v Wolfram Jahn>me, it's, it's still taking me, quite an effort to convince people.

00:54:24.141 --> 00:54:28.159
<v Wolfram Jahn>I'm not criticizing the tool, I'm criticizing the use of it.

00:54:28.527 --> 00:54:34.786
<v Wolfram Jahn>So that's, Yeah, that I think, And then I think that's, that's the main, takeaway for me is that you have to, to separate these two things.

00:54:35.036 --> 00:54:42.699
<v Wolfram Jahn>Um, these are tremendously valuable  and they can be used if used, properly if used by people who know what they're doing.

00:54:43.074 --> 00:54:51.653
<v Wolfram Jahn>and, but people who know their limitations, and I think that's very important, to, to know the limitations and, you know, know where to apply them and where to go a different path.

00:54:51.713 --> 00:54:54.534
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And, and now talking about this.

00:54:55.099 --> 00:55:00.588
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Over decade after it happened, I think 15 years, more than 15 years since the experiments.

00:55:00.759 --> 00:55:01.789
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It must be quite fun.

00:55:01.789 --> 00:55:05.668
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>It still discussed, it still leaves on it still.

00:55:05.898 --> 00:55:07.148
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Like I saw you gear.

00:55:07.539 --> 00:55:11.789
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I think you have the like presentation this year about Dalmarnock somewhere.

00:55:11.789 --> 00:55:15.989
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So it's not a legacy part on the shelf.

00:55:15.998 --> 00:55:18.378
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>it's, it's still alive in the community.

00:55:18.514 --> 00:55:19.994
<v Guillermo Rein>now, lemme tell you this, it's alive.

00:55:19.994 --> 00:55:25.793
<v Guillermo Rein>So last week I gave talk about Dalmarnock of Mechanical Engineers here in, in London.

00:55:25.893 --> 00:55:27.153
<v Guillermo Rein>Now it's true, it's not that.

00:55:27.153 --> 00:55:29.873
<v Guillermo Rein>They came to me and they said, super famous Dalmarnock speak about it.

00:55:29.903 --> 00:55:32.034
<v Guillermo Rein>They said, Do you, do you have anything to say?

00:55:32.253 --> 00:55:36.074
<v Guillermo Rein>And I said, And they say, You have what?

00:55:36.634 --> 00:55:37.833
<v Guillermo Rein>say, But let me give the talk.

00:55:37.833 --> 00:55:40.673
<v Guillermo Rein>And then, you know what, it create a fantastic discussion.

00:55:40.923 --> 00:55:46.434
<v Guillermo Rein>So this is, this is 15 years old it create a fantastic discussion in the room.

00:55:46.434 --> 00:55:48.393
<v Guillermo Rein>Only like three people knew about that Madoc.

00:55:48.574 --> 00:55:52.193
<v Guillermo Rein>The rest, the 20 others were like, Wow, amazing.

00:55:52.193 --> 00:55:52.713
<v Guillermo Rein>Really?

00:55:52.713 --> 00:55:54.594
<v Guillermo Rein>And you know, Wolf friend is absolutely right.

00:55:54.594 --> 00:55:56.074
<v Guillermo Rein>We made a lot of enemies actually.

00:55:56.123 --> 00:55:57.673
<v Guillermo Rein>Uh, unfortunately in the moment.

00:55:57.673 --> 00:56:01.713
<v Guillermo Rein>I think some, most of them did peace with us at the end or we made peace with them.

00:56:02.434 --> 00:56:04.153
<v Guillermo Rein>in that room, there was no controversy.

00:56:04.536 --> 00:56:05.286
<v Guillermo Rein>In that room.

00:56:05.443 --> 00:56:08.273
<v Guillermo Rein>when I presented this last month, everybody was Of course.

00:56:08.443 --> 00:56:09.994
<v Guillermo Rein>Oh, finally someone says this.

00:56:10.634 --> 00:56:11.233
<v Guillermo Rein>Oh, great.

00:56:11.233 --> 00:56:12.753
<v Guillermo Rein>I'm gonna take this to my team.

00:56:12.753 --> 00:56:12.994
<v Guillermo Rein>Right.

00:56:12.994 --> 00:56:14.554
<v Guillermo Rein>It was all very positive, very constructive.

00:56:14.554 --> 00:56:18.126
<v Guillermo Rein>We didn't get in any of the aggressive respond that we got.

00:56:18.367 --> 00:56:19.617
<v Guillermo Rein>Well, it is important, right?

00:56:19.617 --> 00:56:23.496
<v Guillermo Rein>Because I was a very young academic at that time, Wolfram doing  PhD.

00:56:24.067 --> 00:56:37.186
<v Guillermo Rein>So you don't want, you don't want to be the center of a storm when you are in, in such a earliest stages of your Wolframs paper, poster was rejected from your or twice, right?

00:56:37.186 --> 00:56:37.547
<v Guillermo Rein>Wolffer?

00:56:37.697 --> 00:56:44.141
<v Wolfram Jahn>And I had, I had this previous, and we had this one paper we used to, the parameters of the, of,

00:56:44.797 --> 00:56:44.876
<v Guillermo Rein>yeah.

00:56:45.657 --> 00:56:50.376
<v Wolfram Jahn>I presented that as at Ifss and the FDS developers were in the, in the audience.

00:56:50.376 --> 00:56:54.777
<v Wolfram Jahn>And I, it was my first, it was the first half year of my PhD.

00:56:55.101 --> 00:57:00.396
<v Wolfram Jahn>didn't know much about And yeah, I had to confront them and

00:57:01.052 --> 00:57:01.722
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, so,

00:57:01.836 --> 00:57:02.476
<v Wolfram Jahn>experience.

00:57:03.936 --> 00:57:04.556
<v Wolfram Jahn>But yeah.

00:57:04.614 --> 00:57:11.284
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>so as, as we are fire engineers and our job is to predict, uh, uncertain future from very uncertain data point.

00:57:11.954 --> 00:57:24.621
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I hereby predict that as we refresh this, piece of, of literature on the, on the shelf, I wonder who's gonna be the first to publish AI predictions on That could, that, that could be interesting.

00:57:25.211 --> 00:57:27.661
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I have my hands if I had to bet.

00:57:27.711 --> 00:57:28.942
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>There's one group I would,

00:57:29.376 --> 00:57:29.726
<v Wolfram Jahn>me.

00:57:31.206 --> 00:57:32.577
<v Guillermo Rein>That's, No, you can't.

00:57:32.617 --> 00:57:34.077
<v Guillermo Rein>You have to do it ahead of time.

00:57:34.077 --> 00:57:40.317
<v Guillermo Rein>So what I would like is artificial intelligence people predict and experiment before we do it.

00:57:41.007 --> 00:57:41.427
<v Wolfram Jahn>Put

00:57:42.197 --> 00:57:42.757
<v Guillermo Rein>Blind

00:57:42.802 --> 00:57:43.681
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>you can find me.

00:57:43.797 --> 00:57:44.836
<v Guillermo Rein>actual blind prediction.

00:57:44.836 --> 00:57:48.356
<v Guillermo Rein>Artificial intelligence are trained on purpose against the result.

00:57:49.840 --> 00:57:57.480
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>you find me five groups of AI who would like to do that, or 10 groups of CFD engineers who would be willing to submit their results.

00:57:57.563 --> 00:57:59.804
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I have a place I'll find funds and I'll do it.

00:58:00.114 --> 00:58:01.443
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I, I, I'll do the experiment.

00:58:01.708 --> 00:58:03.108
<v Wolfram Jahn>don't review that

00:58:05.467 --> 00:58:05.956
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Okay.

00:58:06.001 --> 00:58:07.181
<v Guillermo Rein>Now you'll be

00:58:07.630 --> 00:58:08.891
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>you are a professor now.

00:58:08.891 --> 00:58:10.610
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>You can send us your PhD students.

00:58:10.610 --> 00:58:11.610
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That's, that's the whole point.

00:58:11.911 --> 00:58:25.126
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And guys, for, for the very, very last thing, in some years ago, 2019 or 2020, I think that was, um, in the midst of pandemic, that was a SFPE Europe conference in which we've played the Triva game.

00:58:25.364 --> 00:58:28.063
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And there was a question in the trivia.

00:58:28.451 --> 00:58:36.440
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>in 2006, University of Edinburgh has conducted a series of fire experiments that forever changed our understanding and trust in safety analysis of fire safety.

00:58:36.701 --> 00:58:42.561
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The form, the profound conclusions were related to the scatter of numerical predictions of multiple engineering teams.

00:58:42.701 --> 00:58:46.840
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The question now, what is the name of the Glasgow district that gave name to this program?

00:58:47.380 --> 00:58:56.561
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And there were answers, which are s Drum Chapel, Woodside, and Dalmarnock and, 60% of the responders got it correct.

00:58:56.561 --> 00:59:00.320
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So I hope after this episode, uh, that would go to 90 something

00:59:00.510 --> 00:59:02.771
<v Guillermo Rein>and they could spell it and pronounce it properly, you think?

00:59:03.840 --> 00:59:12.471
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>If, If, you want more funny things about the trivia, we also ask how much the SFP handbook weighs, which I saw behind Wolfram just seconds ago.

00:59:12.570 --> 00:59:18.710
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And just, and that, that actually 7.57 kilogram and only two people got it correct.

00:59:18.880 --> 00:59:19.231
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So

00:59:19.311 --> 00:59:20.590
<v Guillermo Rein>have to do this trivia again.

00:59:20.590 --> 00:59:21.231
<v Guillermo Rein>That sounds like

00:59:21.440 --> 00:59:22.280
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>that was a lot of fun.

00:59:22.617 --> 00:59:25.777
<v Guillermo Rein>Sorry, can I add one comment that you might, you can edit it in and out

00:59:25.862 --> 00:59:26.911
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>please go on.

00:59:27.056 --> 00:59:28.016
<v Guillermo Rein>that, Okay.

00:59:28.016 --> 00:59:30.097
<v Guillermo Rein>So I told you the difference between models and

00:59:30.402 --> 00:59:30.891
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

00:59:31.097 --> 00:59:31.697
<v Guillermo Rein>really, really important.

00:59:32.456 --> 00:59:40.681
<v Guillermo Rein>this has had been mentioned before, this was mentioned as an engineer, I don't like that as user effects, right?

00:59:40.851 --> 00:59:45.641
<v Guillermo Rein>So you have the model and anything that is screw up is always the fault of the user, right?

00:59:45.690 --> 00:59:54.081
<v Guillermo Rein>So if the mathematicians say, Oh, that's not my fault, that's the fault of the user, but an engineer, engineering cannot happen without the user.

00:59:54.465 --> 00:59:55.076
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Mm-hmm.

00:59:55.130 --> 01:00:13.240
<v Guillermo Rein>So I, I, that's why I prefer, instead of talking about user effects as the people who come to scrub the beauty of the model, I prefer to say, well, there is models which are mathematically mostly, and then there is modeling, which is engineering, which is not only science, it's also art, and actually protects people from fire.

01:00:13.590 --> 01:00:18.804
<v Guillermo Rein>this is something important for me because we, I discussed that tremendously after the round row when be public.

01:00:18.804 --> 01:00:21.963
<v Guillermo Rein>People were saying, just publish a paper on user effects.

01:00:22.443 --> 01:00:23.974
<v Guillermo Rein>I was like, Tell me that again.

01:00:23.974 --> 01:00:24.813
<v Guillermo Rein>What do you mean?

01:00:24.813 --> 01:00:26.014
<v Guillermo Rein>What do you mean user effects?

01:00:26.103 --> 01:00:26.974
<v Guillermo Rein>So is that

01:00:27.284 --> 01:00:27.773
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Yeah.

01:00:27.773 --> 01:00:28.293
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Beautiful.

01:00:28.293 --> 01:00:32.293
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That, that's a great, uh, final thought in in this episode.

01:00:32.293 --> 01:00:33.653
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, I, I love this series.

01:00:33.653 --> 01:00:39.940
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I'm gonna do more of that, okay, guys, thank you so much for, uh, spending an hour an hour with me.

01:00:40.030 --> 01:00:40.956
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>was, it's a huge pleasure.

01:00:40.956 --> 01:00:41.356
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Thanks.

01:00:41.356 --> 01:00:42.157
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Thanks again.

01:00:42.157 --> 01:00:43.543
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And then see you around guys.

01:00:43.543 --> 01:00:44.478
<v Guillermo Rein>Thank you, bge.

01:00:44.478 --> 01:00:44.918
<v Guillermo Rein>Thank you.

01:00:44.918 --> 01:00:45.398
<v Guillermo Rein>Great.

01:00:45.398 --> 01:00:46.039
<v Guillermo Rein>You're welcome.

01:00:46.824 --> 01:00:47.384
<v Wolfram Jahn>Yeahs.

01:00:47.384 --> 01:00:47.744
<v Wolfram Jahn>Thank you.

01:00:48.367 --> 01:00:52.746
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And that's it for the first episode in the miniseries, The Experiments That Changed The Fire Science.

01:00:52.777 --> 01:00:53.916
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I hope you've enjoyed that.

01:00:54.396 --> 01:01:00.487
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Tell me if you like the format, tell me if you would like to hear more about this experiments and these research.

01:01:00.547 --> 01:01:02.916
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Maybe you have ideas which to cover next.

01:01:03.217 --> 01:01:06.067
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Actually, some of them are already in production.

01:01:06.637 --> 01:01:10.266
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So, I guess if you will guess up what's the next step for this series?

01:01:10.806 --> 01:01:20.047
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I hope that it'll get some nice recommendations from you and I'm more than eager to continue the series because I absolutely love learning about.

01:01:20.467 --> 01:01:24.349
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>The experiments and, how the landscape of fire science has changed.

01:01:24.800 --> 01:01:25.550
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Over the years.

01:01:25.550 --> 01:01:28.190
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>This is probably the coolest part of the podcast.

01:01:28.219 --> 01:01:30.769
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Well, Second to spacecraft fire safety.

01:01:30.800 --> 01:01:31.699
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>That is for sure.

01:01:32.510 --> 01:01:35.150
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So that that will be either I won't prolong this.

01:01:35.690 --> 01:01:38.030
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Much because it was a lengthy episode anyway.

01:01:38.329 --> 01:01:44.119
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Just one announcement . As mentioned before, I'm trying to make an questions and answers episodes.

01:01:44.179 --> 01:01:44.840
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Q and A's.

01:01:45.320 --> 01:01:46.699
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And there we'll air.

01:01:47.210 --> 01:01:49.340
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Monthly on at the end of the month.

01:01:49.849 --> 01:01:56.360
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, you can submit your questions either through emails or through the SpeakPipe add-on on the website.

01:01:56.389 --> 01:02:04.039
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Please use them at ask questions about the podcast episodes about fire science, about meaning of life, whatever you like.

01:02:04.070 --> 01:02:07.820
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>And I'll try to answer them as well as I can.

01:02:08.630 --> 01:02:13.010
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>In the monthly Q and a episode, I guess that there's going to be fun.

01:02:13.280 --> 01:02:16.510
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I already had  three or four really interesting questions.

01:02:16.510 --> 01:02:20.050
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>So the first one is looking, uh, Promising.

01:02:20.110 --> 01:02:23.949
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>Uh, please don't make me speak about meaningless stuff.

01:02:23.998 --> 01:02:25.072
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>ask questions.

01:02:25.072 --> 01:02:27.802
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>I can answer So that's it for today.

01:02:27.922 --> 01:02:29.913
<v Wojciech Wegrzynski>See here next Wednesday bye