US, Iran Halt War; Global Stocks Surge on Deal
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On today's podcast:
1) The US and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halting a war that killed thousands of people and setting the stage for negotiations on the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program. Officials from the two countries will meet in Switzerland to formally sign the agreement, with key sticking points left for the next stage of talks, including the removal of sanctions and financial incentives for Iran. The agreement could bring peace and security to the region, but its details remain unresolved, and both sides are casting the deal in different lights, underscoring the difficulties that may lie ahead in resolving outstanding issues.
2) Inflation is roaring back at the fastest pace in three years, and investors have been dumping US Treasury bonds and piling into bets the Fed will need to start raising rates by December. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is facing an unusually high-stakes test in his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, with his maiden press conference and the Fed's post-meeting statement and forecasts to be scoured for clues on what's next. Warsh's commitment to maintaining the bank's political independence will be reassured if he sends a convincing message that the Fed is willing to shift back into inflation-fighting mode, but falling short will rattle markets already worried he could jeopardize the Fed's credibility.
3) SpaceX shares jumped in premarket trading Monday, after its blockbuster debut Friday vaulted it into the ranks of the world’s most valuable public companies. The performance helped bolster confidence in the artificial intelligence rally, following SpaceX’s embrace of AI earlier this year with the acquisition of Musk’s xAI. It also boosted the IPO prospects of Anthropic PBC and OpenAI, both of which plan go public themselves.
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with the breakthrough in the Middle East. After weeks of negotiations, threats, and counter threats, the US and Iran now say they have reached an interim deal to put more than three months of war on hold. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz says the deal will not provide immediate sanctions relief to Iran. This is going to be in terms of any unfrozen assets or sanctions relief, what's called pay for performance. There will not be upfront cash. So to speak that we saw in the Obama deal and the JCPOA with literally palets of cash because the Iranian banking system was dysfunctional being flown in. You and Ambassador Mike Waltz appeared on ABC's This Week Heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Abira bo Walmar reports the details of the agreement still have not been released. What we know so far is that the deal right now will ensue the reopening the immediate tree opening of the Strait of Vermuz, where at tankers can go back to their movement. Now there are some caveats there. And the other thing is that sixty days of an extended ceasefire will ensue afterwards, where both sides will take part in technical negotiations about mainly the state of Iran's nuclear program. Bloomberg's a birabo Olmar reports President Trump pushed for the deal by his eightieth birthday yesterday. Both sides now planned to sign it this Friday in Switzerland. Iran says it will release the text of the agreement then, and even as he celebrated the deal, President Trump told The New York Times he could restart military attacks if Iran does not reach an agreement on its nuclear program on nie In. One factor that could complicate the deal is Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Etnahu's government launched new attacks on Lebanon yesday, hours before the agreement was announced. This morning, Israel's Defense Minister Israel cat says Israeli forces or a main in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza for as long as necessary. Well. National Security Minister at Amar Ben Gavier posted on ex that Israel is not found by the US around deal, and Finance Minister Benzils Mootrich added his own ex post saying the deal is quote bad for Israel and for the entire free world. All right now, Karen, we are seeing positive reaction in equity markets to the US Eron agreement, and in Europe, the Stocks fifty is up one point three percent. US futures are in rally mode as well, led by Nasdaq futures up two point one percent. S and P futures are one point three percent higher, and Dow futures have a one percent gain. And as expected, Nathan Oil is dropping on the latest developments. Right now, NIMEX screwed oil is down five point six percent at eighty dollars sixteen cents a barrel. Brent is down more than five percent at eighty two dollars eighty five cents. However, analyst, you're warning it could take months to fully restore oil and gas flows on the straight of horror moves. They say, Adia will ease the risk to supply and continued upward pressure on prices, but rebuilding confidence among shipowners, insurers and refiners will take longer. And now President Trump Karen is on his way to the G seven meeting in France, and he's reportedly threatening France with one hundred percent wine tariffs. President told The New York Post he'd have no choice if France doesn't drop its digital tax on US tech companies. Bloomberg's Ben Sill says this puts French President Emmanuel Macron in a difficult position. Having Trump come out attacking the French taxes at this point is going to be a real bump in the road for Macron. He is due to have byla with Trump at five o'clock after in our time, shortly after Trump arrives in av M, so we'll get a sense of how much trouble That's can cause pretty quickly, I think. In Bloomberg's Ben Sol's notes, mccron's invited a group of technology executives, including Open AI's Sam Altman, to a lunch on the summit's final day. Nathan, there's a crackdown on social media in Europe. Britain is banning people under sixteen from using a range of social media apps. And we go to London and get the latest with the Bloomberg James Wilcock, James, good morning. Good morning Karen and Nathan. I'm not prepared to compromise on children's happiness or safety. Those are the words a Prime Minister Kirstarmer as he announces new rules due to coming to force next year that will stop under sixteen from accessing social media and a number of other gaming platforms. It marks the start of a crunch week for the Prime Minister. He heads to a potentially embarrassing G seven summit after his defense sieve to quit last week, and his leadership rival Andy Burnham could enter Parliament later this week if he wins a vote in Northwest England. In London, James Wilcock Blue Nogradia. James thanks back. Here. In the US, the countdown is underway for the parade for the NBA champion New York Knicks and the celebrations expected to draw millions. Bloomberg's Alexis Christophers is in New York with the very latest Alexis Well Nathan. City officials say it could be the largest turnout for a parade in Big Apple history. Millions of Nick fans are expected to line the parade route Thursday morning to cheer on their beloved championship team. In the once in a lifetime experience. The ticker Tay Parade's going to kick off at ten am Wall Street time and run from Battery Park North one mile up the Canyon of Heroes to City Hall, where Mayor Mom Donnie will host a celebration fit for champions. It is a chance for this entire city to celebrate this team that has given us so much. We're going to have a ceremony at City Hall. We're going to be presenting our administration's first keys to the City to the team. It will be the first Knicks ticker tape parade in franchise history. During the team's nineteen seventy and seventy three championship wins, then Mayor John Lindsay suspended the city's shorts parade tradition. If you plan on attending, city officials recommend showing up hours before that ten am start time. No word on whether the celebration at City Hall will require tickets or how they'll be distributed. From New York Knicks Nation Alexis Christophers Bloomberg Radio, all. Right, Alexis, thank you, Let's turn to the economy now or a new FED Chairman Kevin Walsh will host his first policy meeting this week. Worsh is facing a difficult test as inflation wars bank at the fastest pace in three years. Ira Jersey is chief US interest strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. I do think that he's in a little bit of a known situation because it's going to be very difficult for the Federal Reserve to produce interest rate, which, of course President Trump has said that he wants Kevin Walsh to do, and what he said he thinks Kevin Walsh will do. But Kevin Walsh can't do it because he's only one member of the committee. And that's Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rates strategist Ira Jersey, who says there's little hanging on the outcome of this week's meeting. The Bank is widely expected to hold this benchmark rate unchanged. Well, SpaceX chairs are anything but on hold, Karen. They are jumping in the pre market following its debut Friday that vaulted the company into the ranks of the world's most valuable public firms. Right now, SpaceX stock is up more than five percent. Today will actually mark the first full trading session for SpaceX. Agained nineteen percent on Friday. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. John, Good Morning, Good Morning, Karen. That more than fifty year curse broke in with the next winning the NBA Championship Saturday night, but not all celebrating handled it well. There was violence. Five school buses being used for the World Cup were destroyed, including one set on fire, and police say four people were either stabbed or slashed. A seventeen year old shot on the foot near Times Square Stati Mitch McConnell, the longest serving Senate Republican leader, was admitted to a hostel yesterday morning. Spokesman didn't give any details about McConnell's condition, except to say he's receiving excellent care. And A UFC fight at the White House last night drew four thousand people to the South Lawn. President Trump and the First Lady celebrating his eightieth birthday. They sat ringside. I got to thank President Trump for making this happen. A federal lawsuit trying to stop the event from happening, calling it deeply corrupt. Vice President J. D. Van says he hasn't decided whether he's going to seek the Republican presidential nomination at twenty twenty eight, but tell CBS News he expects President Trump to get behind him. I have no doubt that the President the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do. But we really just haven't talked about what that thing will be. Vice President Vance on CBS Sunday Morning Global News twenty four hours a day whenever you wanted with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg Karen. Thanks John. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that we bring in John stash Hour. Thanks Aaron. Twenty four hours after the next to compet of the playoff run of sixteen wins only three losses in the NBA, the Carolina Hurricanes did the exact same thing. They won three nothing at Vegas. They won the Stanley Cup for the second time. The previous one was twenty years ago. Jordan Stall, who scored in each of the first five games, won the cons might as playoff MVP the World Cup Germany seven to one over Kurisa and Sweden a five to one rout of Tunisia Ivery Coast Upset, Ecuado, Our, Japan and the Netherlands finish in the time. That's to Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up after this. Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business Appum. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. President Donald Trump has an interim deal with Iran at his back as he he to the G seven leaders summit in France today. Implementation could be a key focus for G seven allies. Kayak Kallis has had a foreign policy for the European Union. We have expertise when it comes to the nuclear negotiations, for example. We can also provide other help and. See you Foreign Policy Chief Kayakallis speaking with reporters in Luxembourg and joining us now from the G seven in Evyon, France. Is Bloomberg Chief Europe correspondent Oliver Crook. So, Oliver, what role could the G seven play now? As we do have this interim deal least announced by the US and Iran good morning. Good morning, Yeah, exactly. So this is going to be the main focus for the G seven. It was going to be the main focus regardless of sort of what happened with the war in Iran. But now that there is a beginning of the sort of architecture coming into form to basically end this war, you know, everybody here hopes that will be the main focus for leaders here. So there's a big question of how the G seven can sort of contribute to this. Particularly the Europeans. You heard it from the host of these proceedings, the President of France and Menu and who's really said it from the very beginning of the war that the Europeans would have a sort of military role in the day after and sort of the after a ceasefire. So the question is how do you flesh that out? How are the Europeans going to be involved. We know that it could involve a sort of d mining mission that the French and the UK have said that they was sort of put forward. But you should also remember that the Europeans are involved in the sanctions regime against Iran, and we heard from the E three. These are the leaders of Germany, UK, France and Italy saying that actually they'll be open to putting down some of their own sanctions in accordance with this deal if Iran sort of reaches certain milestones, So all of this sort of nigger nitty gritty will be established and discussed here at the G seven leaders. And we should say though, there are leaders also from other countries that are actually crucial to the architecture of this deal, of the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, they will all be here. And again it's actually just sort of stress that the President of the United States is going to be out of country. He's going to be in France for three days. That's a really rare opportunity to have that much time with the President of the United States with a very busy agenda of many things that these European leaders want to get from the President of the United States. As you've been making ali, the far As, semi official news service in Iran is reporting that this deal is going to stipulate that Iran is going to allow passage through the Strait of Horror moves for only sixty days, presumably during the nuclear negotiations. Could that complicate things further for the G seven is they're thinking about that day after. Yeah, I mean absolutely. I think that again everyone here will say sort of a great relief that there is a deal. The next thing they're going to do is find out what this actual deal is, what is actually in it. I think that that is I think what the entire world is grappling with, and I think that for the leaders here from theed or from the United States, but of course from the Europeans and some of the other nations, is to basically make sure that this does not ever return back to a kinetic war, that we don't ever get the closure yet again of the Strait of Horrormus. So they were going to think put everything on the table to try to get that forward with the President of the United States in those negotiations, but again trying to get the president on side not just on the question of the Gulf, and if he's satisfied with what the Europeans are offering, can they get him on side on some of the other issues we should say, you know, namely for the Europeans here and as someone who's going to be here in the next couple of days is the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelenski, who spoke with the President yesterday. We should say President United States also spoke with Ladimir Putin yesterday. And I wanted to get to that in our last minute here, Alli, because what's the challenge to put the Russia Ukraine issue back in front of the table for President Trumps. We're still trying to figure out what the final details of this interim agreement with their Ron are going to be. Yeah. Absolutely, I think that the way that the Ukrainians and the Europeans are going to see the Trump visit here and the opportunity that's presented here is the big question is what is the next chapter of American engagement on the question of Ukraine and Russia. Right, they've basically checked out entirely of that process. It became too complicated. They had their hands full with a number of different issues, and they basically walked away from it saying, you know, Europe, you take this over. If the President of the United. States feels a little bit embolden, he feels that he's got to win at his back, you know, he just spoke with Putin. Potentially, you know this come he comes back to. The table in some way or another. So I think the Europeans, and particularly for Zelensky, is to really establish what the next chapter of American involvement is going to be, obviously in the question of diplomacy, the question of attention, but of course the question of military hardware, a lot of which has been diverted away from Europe, away from Ukraine and in the Middle East in order to deal with that war. This is Bloomberg day Break, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg ninety two to nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious XM Channel one twenty one. Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Day Bray