607: Mailbag 1/14/22

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Speaker 1: This is the LA Podcast with your host JJ Zachartha J J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode six hundred and seven of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. The twenty twenty one NFL regular season has come to an end, and that means it's time for the playoffs. This Saturday features two wildcard games. The Raiders play the Bengals and the Patriots play the Bills, and Fandel is giving you a chance to get in on the wild card weekend action. All you have to do is head over to fandle dot com and create your own daily fantasy lineup for the Saturday Million contest. There are tons of cash prizes to be had, with first place taking home two hundred thousand dollars, So head over to Fandel today and create your daily fantasy lineups. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fando dot com or download the Fandle lapp for more details. This is mal show, Let's get to it. The first question this week is from at Walk underscore of underscore Shane. It's awfully early, but talk a bit about how you see early drafts going next season. Will it be McCaffrey again or did jt do enough to be the one? Where does cup fit in? Et cetera. So we know that the fantasy football masses are pretty reactive to what happened the previous season. There's some really interesting ADP data that shows that when it's a down year for running backs, for example, teams tend to go more wide receiver heavy than next year, and then vice versa. I think a lot of people were burned by running backs this year, and even though they were burned by wide receivers as well, we just tend to remember the injuries more. We remember when guys were out for weeks and weeks, sinking our fantasy football hopes and dreams, especially with early round players like Derek Henry and Christian McCaffrey. My guess is that Jonathan Taylor is going to be the one oh one by ADP next year, and that people will avoid McCaffrey because of his recent injuries, And by avoid I just mean that they will be a large subset of people who just want nothing to do with him. In the early parts of drafts, and with someone like cup I think it's natural for people to want to take him as a top wide receiver and maybe that's where he ends up landing. For me. I don't know. I doubt he will be, but because people are so reactive, it's likely that he ends up being the top wide out in the days of early round tight ends, at least as early as they were this year. I bet we see that shift a little bit next year as well. Travis Kelcey didn't totally live up to expectation, and Darren Waller and George Kittle definitely didn't because of their injuries, so I'd expect tight end ADP to drop a little bit as well in the early rounds. This best questions from at seth Head is the time before the NFL Draft a good time to make trades in dynasty. Thinking back to James Robinson's value tanking after the Jags drafted ETN if somebody had traded Robinson away obviously not in hindsight, they would have gotten more value pre draft. Yeah, the answer to this is that it's case by case, but I'll take that a step further and say that it typically is a good idea to make moves based off of assumptions that the public is making. A really good example of this is with James Robinson, yes, but also Mike Davis last year. Now I didn't like Davis at all in redraft this past year, but before the actual NFL Draft happened last year, I talked through how there was just this generally accepted opinion out there that the Falcons would draft a running back. But when you looked at the running back class last year, only three guys really stood out, those three being Naji Harris, Traves TN, and Javonte Williams, and there were more than three running back needy teams. You can't just assume a team is going to get a particular position in the draft just because they need that position, let alone a player who's good playing that position. So my advice is to analyze these assumptions. I'll definitely be talking about them throughout the next couple of months, but understanding how the market is thinking is key in knowing when to buy and sell these players, because, as we know, there's a lot of variance in the draft and how teams approach it. This has questions from at with Parks Is there any other explanation for what happened with Miles Sanders scoring zero touchdowns this year? Beyond it happens fifteen touchdowns between the other three running backs but nothing for the supposed starter. Yeah, I mean, it's pretty wild and unlucky. Let's be honest. It seemed like anytime a Miles Sanders drive got to the goal line, Jalen Hurts ended up scoring the touchdown, and then anytime any other running backs drive got to the goal line, the running back scored. I wouldn't look much into this aside from it being a very unlucky season for Miles Sanders. It doesn't mean I'm buying him or anything. It just means it was unlucky. Sanders had one hundred and thirty seven rush attempts this year, and he did not score before this season, and since twenty eleven, only six running backs with one hundred and twenty five or more rush attempts failed to find the end zone on the ground, and Sanders had six goal line rushes. That's more than all but one of those running backs in that group of six. He wasn't gonna light the world on fire with his touchdowns this year, but he should have had more than zero. In fact, Pro Football Focuses expected fantasy points model had Miles Sanders at four point seven expected total touchdowns. That model only had Kyle Pitts among skill position players underperforming more in the touchdown column this year. This last questions from AT Captain chap Ff any way too early thoughts on a twenty twenty two late round quarterback target if the pre draft type doesn't have him fly up the draft board. I think Trey Lance could be what Hurts was this year in terms of value, though Brady and Rogers were some good later round values in drafts as well. Yeah, I mean, I think the obvious answer here is Trey Lance, given what we know he can do with his legs, and I thought that he really progressed well in his second start as that game went on. I think he's going to be an awesome player in fantasy football, especially given the weapons around him. But it's tough to say how people will react to this season. I think Russell Wilson's gonna end up falling because he was so mediocre when he came back from his injury, and he also didn't run as much this year. It's not hard to buy into a player like him, though, while hoping that that was more of a blip than anything else. But with someone like Joe Burrow having a good season, the pocket passers being really stable, you're gonna be able to get a pretty good quarterback as one of the last teams in your league taking one next year. Streaming is still gonna be difficult, I think, which is what I talked about on a recent Mailbag episode. But you should be fine with a late round quarterback strategy in twenty twenty two, and I hope that Trey Lance is part of that group. This last question is from at Jason Katz thirteen. What advice do you have for the people out there with absolutely no college football knowledge who are looking to start learning about the twenty twenty two rookie class and what players might end up mattering in fantasy football? Honestly, just start following draft related accounts and consuming draft related content. If you're trying to do this all on your own, Like if you're trying to analyze this stuff yourself, I'd say to first figure out what you're good at. Are you able to watch a guy's film and come away with strong takeaways? Are you more of a data person who's gonna get more out of finding trends and our certain statistics translate to the NFL. Now, I'm gonna walk through my process with prospecting over the next month or two, so you'll at least get my side to this. But there are really good scouts out there, like Dane Brugler, the guys at PFF who can help you learn this class. I'd start off by just consuming as much content as it could. The last question is from at Brady Underscore Harbaugh. You've spoken on the tight end dead zone before and why to avoid, but it seems this year we may be getting some higher profile guys that could drop into the dead zone, like Darren Waller TJ. Hockinson. Do any of these types of guys change your strategy if they do land in the dead zone? Thanks? So, Yeah. Middle round tight ends are generally terrible, but as I noted in the preseason, middle round tight ends aren't nearly as terrible when they're the first pass catchers selected from their team, which is why I was into both Hockinson and Mark Andrews this year even though they were like fringe middle round guys. Yes, we'll just have to see where these guys ADPs land and we'll have to see what goes on in their surroundings to see where we should take them. I don't think my strategy is really going to change that dramatically though. I've mostly been a late round tight end drafter unless I can get a discount on one of those top pass catchers, and honestly, that may be the case for Waller Hawkinson next year. We just have to wait and see this last questions from at f F undefeated. I think that stat on rookie quarterbacks and then not being able to support their receivers hold some water to Terry McLaurin in his quarterback situation, or it at least feels a bit similar. If a rookie quarterback historically can't support their top weapon, then what exactly makes us think that f one with a fill in at quarterback basically some of the skills of a rookie quarterback, how can we think that McLaurin will finish as a top five to ten wide receiver. So I can't tell you if you're saying this from the perspective of McLaurin entering the twenty twenty one season or McLaurin moving forward, So I'll just answer both First. The thing that's being reference here is like my study on how rookie quarterbacks impact their pass catchers. Basically, we rarely get any sort of elite season from a wide receiver who plays with a rookie quarterback for the majority of the year. It doesn't happen often at all. I don't really think that we can use that data for Terry mclaurin's twenty twenty one season, though, because he obviously didn't have a rookie quarterback. Does poor quarterback play matter? Does it suck for the pass catchers on teams with bad quarterbacks? Yeah, of course, especially if it ends up changing team philosophy and the team doesn't get as much volume through the air. But entering twenty twenty one, we all thought that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to be the starter. That injury then happens, and that definitely played a role in derailing Terry mclaurin's season. Now, where things go from here, we don't know. If Washington gets a veteran, I'll feel better about mclauren and Redraft if they get a rookie. It may be good for mclaurin's dynasty value because that rookie can end up hitting. But from a redraft standpoint, the odds are not in his favor. But as usual, guys, it always comes down to come. Is McLaurin going to have a huge price tag after this season with a rookie quarterback? Maybe not. And it's not like he can't be usable with a rookie quarterback. It's that he likely won't far exceed expectation with one. But if you lower that expectation, as you lower it more and more, there's more room for growth even without a studley wide receiver one season. So there's a lot to unpack here as it relates to whether or not I'd want McLaurin next year. You shouldn't avoid players at all costs because of a study that shows that a player sucks with a rookie quarterback. At the end of the day, a player's cost needs to be factored in always. The last question this week is from at Bgtevan. In your opinion, what's a statistic or metric that's really overrated by many analysts in the fantasy football industry. Most metrics that deal with efficiency are not very useful well I should say they are useful, but mostly in spotting regression. That's why I don't think that they're worthless to analyze. Just because they're not predictive doesn't make them irrelevant because if your competition is utilizing that metric and you know that metric sucks, then you can understand how your competition is thinking, and then you can gain an edge. Now, let me explain what I mean by that yards per carry not a big deal. It regresses. While some running backs will have better yards per carry rates than others over the long run, it takes a long time for us to know what a player's normal yards per carry is. And not only that, but it's not what's gonna drive fantasy points for a running back. Volume is. So there's a group of people and they're like, oh, man, I gotta have this one running back because he's a six point two yards per carry average. But you know that yards per carry regresses, then you can use that to your advantage, whether you're talking during your draft or in a trade. Most efficiency statistics are overrated in fantasy football. This game is about volume, and there's a disconnect with some people who think that volume is not a talent statistic. It's absolutely a number driven by talent. If a player is seeing the ball a lot, chances are that player is good, and if that player is good, he's probably gonna be good in fantasy football too. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found in don't worth to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week. Everyone really appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend. I'll talk to you next week