1081: Running Back Prospects Who Produced Like Studs

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacheris j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten eighty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting to the topic today, I just want to send another reminder that the Late Round Prospect Guide is currently available for pre order. This year's guide lets you know everything that goes into the ZAP models. It's got profiles for every running back, wide receiver, and tight end going to the NFL combine. And then there's also the Year two profiles. I have my Year two model for second year NFL players, and I've got a little over thirty profiles for running backs and wide receivers there too. So this thing is a beast, and you can pre order it for fourteen ninety nine. That's gonna go up to nineteen ninety nine when the guide launches in mid March. Just had the Lateround dot com to learn more. Today's an episode that I do each year as sort of an unofficial kickoff to my prospecting work. For those who are unfamiliar, I have a prospect model or models, depending on how you want to frame it. That's what I just talked about at the top. I've worked on them for years, and I try to improve them every year with new data and new ways of calculating that data. I used to be pretty bad at modeling, like the first couple of iterations weren't that great in hindsight. But I've worked really hard over the last seven or eight years to get these models to a place where I'm confident in these results, and I know they bring value because I've tested them pretty thoroughly. With any model, you should be aiming to forecast something, and in the case of the ZAP models, at least at running back and wide receiver, I'm aiming to predict a player's best two season average and PPR points per game across their first three years in the league. I call that B two S, or best two seasons. Think of it this way. A player plays fifteen games in each of his first three seasons, so he shit a minimum game threshold, and year one he scores eleven PPR points per game. In year two it's twelve, and year three that jumps up to fourteen. That player's B two S would be thirteen PPR points per game. Because it's taking his year three number of fourteen, and it's averaging that with his second highest output, which is twelve PPR points per game. That rookie season average just gets thrown out. I'm attempting to predict B two s for every running back and wide receiver who either goes to the combine or gets drafted, and I've got data that goes back to twenty eleven to help me do that. So the zapmodel database is filled with hundreds of running backs and wide receivers. Some players do slip through the cracks, like Austin Eckler who wasn't at the combine or drafted Adam Thielen, same exact deal. The models have a variety of inputs, ranging from a player size, to teammates score to production related metrics. The production side is what we're going to be focused on today. Now. Some people think collegiate production just doesn't matter when you're evaluating incoming prospects, and it might not matter at certain positions. I'm not analyzing linebackers and safeties here, but at running back and wide receiver, collegiate production matters, and it can matter a lot. Part of the reason people think production in college doesn't matter is because they just think in terms of raw production, yards, receptions, touchdowns. Those things can be really skewed in college given the variety of offenses and schemes that we see. One team might throw the ball two hundred times in the season. Another team might throw it seven hundred times. That's not what these models really look at though. The production metrics in the ZAP model they're share related. That is, they're related to how a player performed within his own offense. We look at those kind of metrics all the time. Target share, touchdown, share, the list goes on and on. On top of that, we can take those share focused metrics and adjust them for things like age and program strength. A player giving us crazy production within his offense as a freshman is more likely going to be better than a player giving us that same production as a fifth year senior. And if he does it at Alabama, that's more impressive than if he did it at Alabama State. Now, clearly these models are being tested against what we've seen historically, and since these production metrics are predictive, that means players in the past at these positions share some similar traits. Turns out, productive NFL players were almost always productive in college. Not all productive college players are then productive in the NFL. But if a player is dominating as a pro, he was probably dominating in college too. That brings me back to today's show. Every year, as sort of a primer, I look at a sample of historical running backs and wide receivers who have been studs in the NFL, A stud sample, if you will. I find what model related traits those guys have in common, and then I see if there are any players from this year's class who produce like them in college. I see if anyone in this year's class produced like an NFL stud. Today, we're talking running backs. Next week, we're gonna go to wide receivers. Okay, let's get to the good stuff. Now. There's really no simple way to determine what an NFL running back stud is. Is it someone who gives us sixteen PPR points per game in any season of his career. Is it someone who gives us multiple RB two seasons across some portion of his career? What is it? My definition, just for purposes of the show and to make some sense of this class, is any running back since twenty eleven who had more than one season with fourteen or more PPR points per game. That should obviously capture the studs like Christian McCaffrey, but it gives us a larger sample of players who may have been rock solid RB twos for multiple years too. Not everyone in that sample is in the zapmodel database, so I can't compare their metrics to this year's class. But when those guys are all filtered out, it still gives me thirty nine running backs thirty nine stud NFL running backs to compare this year's class two. So everyone's aware there are twenty running backs that were invited to this year's combine. Technically it's twenty one, but one's a very obvious and clear fullback, so we're removing from the sample. The goal now is to compare their production profiles to the NFL stud sample and their production profiles their collegiate production profiles. The running back model changed a bit year over year, but as usual, it's very receiving heavy. I've said this before, but that's likely due to a few things. Number One, receiving might just be a little bit undervalued in general draft capitals and input in the model, and that could be doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the rushing numbers. Number two, the model is building for PPR leagues, so receptions they're going to matter a little bit more. And then number three, receiving is a talent signal when a player has a wider skill set that tells us he might be pretty talented. The three main production metrics that currently go into the running back ZAP model their pro rated best season reception share, adjusted yards per team play, and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. Reception share is simply running back receptions divided by total team receptions, the percentage of receptions that are running back had for his team. That's pro rated for games played, and a player must have played at least six games in the season for that shared account. Next is adjusted yards per team play. This takes total yards by a running back it divides it by the number of plays his team ran. The adjusted piece is a multiplier. It's adjusting for age and strength of schedule, So the younger a player, the harder the schedule, the larger that multiplier is going to be. For total yards per team play. That exact same logic is used for receiving yards per team pass attempt, except with receiving yards per team pass attempt. You're looking at receiving yards per team pass attempt. This is a metric that I used last year in the model for running backs, but I did it in the form of breakout score. I'm now only using breakout score for wide receivers. More on that next week, though. Now at this point in the show, someone's out there saying, get on with it. JJ. Just tell me who produced like a stud, because look, it happens every single year. But folks, welcome to the Late Round podcast. Process is the focusing anyway, Let's look at that STUD sample when it came to pro rated reception share in their best collegiate season, the STUD sample average a thirteen point seven percent share. That actually was very similar to this year's class. But unfortunately that's because of Eli Heidenreich. He's a running back out of Navy. Navy historically has a run heavy offense, and that was no different this past year. They had just one hundred and six completions all year, and Hide and Reke got fifty one of those balls. He had a forty eight percent reception share. That's absolutely breaking the model. Now I've read that some people think that he might be a full back, but who knows how a team's gonna deploy that kind of player at the NFL level. But without his crazy reception share, the average in this class drops to eleven point eight percent. And for the record, he's not the fullback that I was talking about earlier, But in an eleven point eight percent reception share for this year's class, that's not that bad. And just to be clear, I'm gonna remove Hide and Reke from the averages moving forward because he's really skewing this data. Now. When it comes to adjusted yards per team play, the STUD sample is two point one two this year's class one that's not filled with studs one point six to zero makes sense. And then lastly, with adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, it's point nine to eight for the STUD sample, with this year's combine invites point seven zero. Realistically, those numbers, all of those numbers, they're pretty good for this year's class. They're not that bad now. I think part of that is because we have fewer invites this year than most seasons. We might just be seeing better profiles in general going to the combine. There aren't many players weighing those numbers down but it's going to be an interesting class to dissect here. Now, your next question might be which players in this year's class actually produced like studs. Which players met or exceeded those averages across the board. We'll get to that in a second. First, let's run through some running backs with red flags within each category, and we probably have to start with Jendarium pres here. Everyone knows Jeremiah Love, they know that he's the top back in this year's class, and don't worry, we're gonna get there. But Price was his backup. And when you're backing up a probable first round pick, you're probably not gonna get as much work in college. Your production profile is going to suffer. The ZAP model will almost definitely underrate Price, just throwing it out there right now. It's a very unique situation. We don't see first round backs with higher profile running back teammates usually drafted in the same year like this, And even though teammates scores an input in the model, it's not going to give Price enough of a boost to overcome the horrible production profile because look, it's a horrible production profile. Let me give you some context. Price is a two point eight percent best season pro rated reception share. If you go back and you look at the zapmodel database, there have been forty seven running backs to enter the NFL with a best season reception share below five percent, so a decent bit below prices. You want to guess how many of those backs had a single NFL season across their first three years in the league with ten or more PPR points per game. Just take a wild guess. We're not even talking about like a season where a guy would be thrown into the flex. We're just talking about ten PPR points per game. One of them, one of the forty seven, the one player scored twelve point seven PPR points per game, and that came in year three, and that player was Derrick Henry, the outlier of all outliers. People forget that Derek Henry took a little bit of time to really be a huge fantasy producer at the NFL level. Now, I do think the circumstances here are naturally different compared to these other backs. There's no doubt we can give them a little grace, but there's a likely chance, and I'm gonna be lower than the market with price if he does go Day two, which NFL mock Draft database dot Com believes that he definitely will. It's just too much of a projection for me because he profiles more as an early down guy with speed, and we want that full three down potential. Now we actually have a lot of double digit percentage were reception share guys among the players projected to go relatively early in this year's draft. The only other call out that I want to make here is probably k Tron Allen out of Penn State. He topped out at a reception share of eight point six percent, But I'm actually not overly concerned about that analytically for a couple of reasons. Number One, he saw an okmount of looks through the air all four years of Penn State. He even had a seven point four percent reception share as a freshman. Number Two, he played with Nick Singleton. Singleton's a draft hopeful player himself this year. Now we can kind of move into the receiving yards per team pass attempt category from here, because I do think there's somewhat of a concern to call out here with Allen, he was not very effective when he saw those looks through the air. His agent schedule adjusted yards per team pass attempt ranks seventh worst than this year's class. Every running back who ranks worse than him is projected to go lower in the NFL draft. Aside from Jendarium Price price for the record ranks worst. Now you can maybe call out Mike Washington here too. According to NFL mock Draft database, Washington, who's out of Arkansas, he's the fifth best back on the consensus board at this moment. He did hit an ok twelve percent reception share this past year, but when adjusted for age and schedule, his best season in receiving yards per team pass attempt was just point sixty seven. That was below average within this class. It's basically two thirds of what we've seen from the stud sample. Now, look, we've seen some hits in the past with receiving yards per tea pass attempt numbers that low. I'm not overly concerned. One big one was Le'Veon Bell, and Washington was well above the class average and total yards per team play. That's good. He was at least getting things done on the ground as well. It's just the most notable player who was below average in receiving yards per team pass attempt. Aside from Allen and Price. Lastly, is the metric I just referred to, which is total yards per team play. The stud sample average an adjusted total yards per team play rate of two point one two. This class only had three players above that two point zero mark. So this is one area where we can dig in a little bit. Now. I could obviously call El Jadarian Price again, we played that out at this point, we know the production profile is not there for him. Well, let's talk about Seth McGowan out of Kentucky. He's barely projected to be in the top two hundred right now according to NFL mock Draft database, but there aren't many running backs projected to go that high in general. I want to bring him up because he has kind of a crazy profile. He's actually passed his twenty fifth birthday already, which, by the way, getting birthdays this year a bigger pain in the butt than it's ever been. But that's for another day. McGowan played for Oklahoma, transferred to Butler Community College, played at New Mexico State, and then he finished things up at Kentucky. He started that journey all the way back in twenty twenty. He was able to hit a one point three to five yards per team play rate at New Mexico State, but that was also New Mexico State when adjusted for age and strength of schedule. His best mark in that category actually came this past year, and it was just one point two to three. We don't get a ton of Day three hits in general at running back, but only Chris Carson and Tony Pollard were able to get the fourteen or more peep yeer points per game within their first three years, with an adjusted yards per team play rate in their best season below one point three. Carson was just a wild outlier from a college production standpoint. Pollard, though he had a fifteen percent reception chair in college, he was a hybrid running back wide receiver. He's not the same kind of back whatsoever. So that's a red flag for McGowan. And speaking of Pollard, it's not super abnormal for receiving backs or players were wide receivers for part of their collegiate career to score worse than total yards per team play because they're just not seeing enough volume to score really high. We seem to have those guys each year. Brishard Smith was sort of that tweener profile last year. Tyrone Tracy was a converted wide receiver the year before that. This year, it looks like Adam Randall out of Clemson. Randall's adjusted total yards per team play was also at that one point three mark, but it was hire than the Gallants, and Randall had a best season reception share of almost twelve percent. Randal's also a pretty unique evaluation because of his size. He's listened at six two two thirty five at the moment. We'll see what the combine weigh in say, but that's wild for a player with a receiving backbone. So I'm not as worried about his yards per team play mark For all of those reasons. Now, the question not becomes do any of these players exceed that STUD average in every single category? And the answer to that is yes, but it's not who you'd expect. There are two running backs I want to talk about here who missed out on the STUD sample average across the board. They missed out on one of the three metrics, and the profile is pretty good backs. One of them is Jonah Coleman out of Washington. His receiving numbers are very solid. He had a thirteen point two percent best season reception share. He had a receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted, of course, of one point one. That's four's best in the class. He lacks a little bit in yards per team play, but he's a thick guys. Looks at five nine two twenty eight, he looks like he'd be a three down back. Jeremiah Love was the other player who actually missed on one of these categories. He had a twelve point four percent best season reception share, and then his adjusted yards per team play was two point five to one. His adjusted yards per team passed at ten, barely over the average at point nine to nine, but he was below in reception share. But look, Love looks like a very, very very good prospect. I still want to see what these guys do with the combine. But his production profile does not have any glaring red flax. It's just not quite as good as some of the other running backs who have been drafted in Round one over the last few years. According to the model, Bijon Robinson and Jamier Gibbs, they graded out higher than Love, and actually Amari and Hampton does two and then JENTI he was a better prospect last year. I would not say that's a problem. I have categories within this app model, and right now, Jeremiah Love is in the Elite Producer category. He looks great. I'm just trying to give you guys some context as to where he stands versus other classes. To me, he's more of like an amar and Hampton type prospect, not play style, not archetype. But that's the kind of prospect he is as a scorer versus a Jamier Gibbs, a Bijon Robinson, an Ashton Gent. He's like one tier down from them. But he's really an awesome prospect. But, like I said, because of Love's reception share being slightly below the NFL stud sample average, he didn't hit on all the marks, but one player did. One player was able to exceed the NFL stud sample across all three production metrics in the ZAP model, and that one player was Emmett Johnson out of Nebraska. The ZAP model absolutely loves Johnson. His top season in reception share nineteen point two percent. He had a best season adjusted yards per team play of two point five to four. His top year in adjusted yards per team pass attempt was one point one to three. Let's use baselines of eighteen percent reception share, two point four total yards per team play, and one point zero receiving yurs per team pass attempt. Let's just filter out running backs in the ZAP model who were able to hit those marks like Emmitt Johnson did, and to reiterate, he cleared those marks pretty easily. Here are the backs who have gotten to those marks in ZAP model history, which goes back to twenty eleven. Douce Vaughan and Tyler Bidet. Okay rough start, but then it's Todd Gurley, Ashton Genty, Christian McCaffrey, and Cam Scataboo. Maybe this ends up being a Tyler Beidet situation. Douce Vaughan is not the same archetype whatsoever. But Beday win one hundred and ninety six overall in the draft, Emmett Johnson, he's projected to go in the top one hundred right now. Another player who kind of fits this archetype is Aaron Jones. Just these ultra productive running backs, even if it's just for two seasons, these ultra productive running backs who are also really really good receivers. You're not gonna hit on all of them. But it is an archetype that we should pay attention to. So I'm very very excited to see him go through this process and to see what film grinders say about him. The highlights that I've watched, I think he looks awesome, but I'm still very, very early in on this process. My overall sentiment with this exercise is that this running back class is just okay. There's some heat in there, there are some good players, but I don't think we're looking at anything close to last year where we could just go for days and days with really great profiles. Next week we'll talk about wide receivers. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestwisting for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Make sure you're tuning into the Late Round Fantasy Football Show on Wednesday over on YouTube. That's at noon Eastern. We're talking year two running backs. It's a running back week, and then I'll have a mailbag episode later in the week. Talk to you soon.