867: NFL Combine Winners and Losers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacheris JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eight hundred and sixty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. There's definitely a large group of people out there who think the NFL combine doesn't matter, that you can't actually take anything away from the event, and then it does more harm than good to your analysis. I disagree with that wholeheartedly. I'm someone who's scouting through analytics, as ninety nine percent of you know, and I think when I say that, a lot of people assume that that means that most of the numbers that I work with come from the NFL combine. But that couldn't be further from the truth. As you heard over the last two weeks on the show, age adjusted College production is far far more important than anything that you'll get from the combine. You can listen to those shows over the last couple of weeks to give you an idea of what I mean. Most of the NFL combine is irrelevant to me. Most of it. There are things that I'm still looking for and things that I'm still inputting into my models. There are things that are still important at the event. Not everything at the combine has to be important for the combine to matter. Now, within my wide receiver prospect model, I don't have any inputs from the NFL combine, not even heightened weight inputs. I don't think that means that those things don't matter, though. It's just that draft capital itself that's an input, and draft capital is likely capturing what it needs to capture at the combine. In other words, if a wide receiver runs a really fast forty, that doesn't get signal in the model by itself, but that wide receiver probably improved as draft stock, and that's the piece that still goes into the model. So I can't definitively say that none of the things of the combine matter at wide receiver. Running back's a little bit different. Running back weight is a model input, and the combine gives me and us a standardized way of reporting that data. Of course, some players are gonna be a little bit heavier or lighter based on the time of year, how much breakfast they ate that day, all that kind of stuff, But over a large sample, it's a great way to have numbers from players in the exact same environment because some of these schools they report some wild heightened weight measurements. Now, on top of that, the running back model uses speed score, which is a metric that takes a player's forty time and it adjusts that for how big they are, how much they weigh, because a smaller player should be running faster than a bigger one and over the last like forty eight hours, I've changed the way the model reports speed score, albeit slightly. It's not that big of a change, but it is a change. Historically, the model has looked at speed scores in a pretty binary way. If a player was below the ninety mark, which is a pretty low percentile, he would get dinged. His overall prospect score would be pushed down, rather than having things so binary. I don't really like doing analysis that way. I did more testing recently and discovered a new way of doing things. Ninety two is actually the speed score threshold that I'm looking for. But a player with a ninety one speed score isn't scored the same way a player with an eighty one speed score would be. The player with a ninety one score isn't getting hurt as much of the model. Conversely, I'm now looking at high end speed scores as well. A player with a speed score above one to twelve, he's getting extra love in the model. And then a speed score of one hundred and twenty two, let's say that gets a little bit more love than one of one hundred and twelve. Now, to be clear, I'm working within extremes here. The majority of players, like seventy percent of them, they're scored the exact same way in the Prospect model when it comes to speed score because their speed scores land in that ninety two to one hundred and twelve range. The rest are where this can come into play, and most of those players it's not even changing their scores dramatically. Now at tight end, speed score is a much bigger input. The tight end model has production metrics, but athleticism matters more at that position than at running back. And why at least when we're trying to predict fantasy success. I bring all of that up because today I'm going to talk through some combine winners and losers, and I'm going to point back to some of these model inputs. When talking about the players. You can see how a player's combine is then impacting their overall outlook based on the stuff that I look at now before digging in. If you're into all this kind of stuff, you should definitely check out the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guide features prospect profiles for all wide receivers and running backs who are at the combine. You get scores for those players, and you get to know everything that goes into my prospect models. There's also an entire section on year two players or guys who are coming out of their rookie seasons. I profile them to let you know what to do with them in fantasy, and that's all model based. Two. The tight end results will be in the model this year as well, but only in the post draft version. So if you buy the guide before the NFL Draft, you get the pre draft version and then I'll email you the post draft version right after the draft is over. You can check it out over on late round dot com. The guide officially launches on March eleventh, and the price will go from eleven ninety nine, which is what it is right now, to fourteen ninety nine, so you can save a few bucks by ordering before March eleventh. Again, that's Late round dot Com. In my eyes. There were more winners than losers at the Combine. This year, I've got six winners that I want to get to and then four losers. Let's talk about arguably the biggest story of the Combine and that Xavier Worthy and his forty yard dash. For those of you who missed it, Texas's Xavier Worthy ran a four to two one forty at the Combine, breaking the record. That was very important because earlier in the day he weighed in at just one hundred and sixty five pounds. This is one of those instances where there's no doubt his forty time is gonna help his draft capital. He was projected to maybe be a mid second round pick before the Combine, and now I wouldn't be shocked if he goes in the first round. Now, I've seen a ton of people tweeting about how fast wide receivers aren't actually good in football and in fantasy football. If you look at history, wide receivers who have run an elite speed at the Combine, they haven't been very productive in the NFL. So I dug into this idea naturally, and I wrote about it in the Prospect Guide. This is what I wrote. Quote, we saw Worthy's speed on display at the NFL Combine, where he ran the fastest forty yard dash ever plenty. You're talking about how the time is actually a bad thing because when you look at history, wideouts who have run fast forties haven't done much in the NFL. Worthies not like them. Since twenty eleven, jj Nelson, Taekwon Thornton, Marquise Goodwin, Henry Ruggs, and John Ross are the only wideouts aside from Worthy, to have run their forties under four point three seconds. None of those players had a breakout score above seventy five Worthies is ninety six point three. Expanding this exercise, we've seen twenty three first and second round wide receivers run a four to four or better at the Combine since twenty eleven. Of that group, only five players had a breakout score above ninety, and three of those players were Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Julio Jones. It's not that fast wide receivers are bad. It's that fast wide receivers generally don't come with impressive production profiles. But Worthy does. Forty yard dash time alone likely isn't that big of a deal. But forty yard dashtime alongside a strong production profile is totally fine. We shouldn't dismiss Worthy because he ran fast. That's silly. We should dismiss Worthy if he ran fast and his age adjusted production was bad. But it's not. It's quite good. Worthy has the third best breakout score in this class, as I talked about last week. Now, I don't know where I'll land on Worthy versus consensus, but I do believe that he's not like a John Ross or a Henry Ruggs. His profile is a lot more well rounded. Let's keep things tech and move on to Worthies twenty twenty three teammate ad Ni Mitchell. I've talked about eighty Mitchell a couple of times in the show over the last few weeks, and I've mentioned that he doesn't have the best age adjusted production profile in the world. He actually has the worst max season yards per route run rate in this class. He's got a bottom five top season yards per team pass attempt rate. You usually don't see many hits with that kind of production. With that being said, the model, like some of the non production stuff with Mitchell, there's a teammate score as an input. He does well there after playing at Georgia and Texas. He's an early declare wide receiver. That kind of stuff does help his score. It's not as bad as it could be. He went out and he tested really well at the combine. We're talking ninety eighth percentile height adjusted speed scorer after running a four to three four. I would imagine that Mitchell's draft stock rose after people saw his testing numbers. He could end up being a first rounder. Now that's why he's a winner, But I do see his profile as a volatile one. I'll just keep going with all this Texas talk and let's talk about Jatavion Sanders. Unlike his teammates at Texas, Sanders was a combine loser, and it really comes down to the fact that he didn't test as an exceptional athlete. Speed score is a big input in the tight end model, and Sanders ran a four to six y nine at two hundred and forty five pounds. That gave him a speed score of just one hundred and one, which isn't a special score when looking at tight ends who were drafted since twenty eleven. Sanders was the clear cut tight end two in my model heading into the combine, but since that forty matters quite a bit at the position. He's being pushed down, and i'd imagine his draft capital took a hit as well. Everyone is rightfully giving Malik Neighbors a ton of love because he's looking like a generational prospect, But his teammate in college, Brian Thomas, absolutely destroyed the combine. Thomas came in at six foot three, two hundred and nine pounds, so teams could fall in love with the size itself, but then he ran in a four three three forty When you adjust for size, that's arguably more impressive than what we saw was Xavier Worthy. Thomas is forty four pounds heavier. Now full disclosure, the ZA model really likes Brian Thomas. I think there's a little more risk to his profile though than the model does. He's not fully developed yet, so things can go in a few directions. He only really had one good year of production, and it's hard to find a reasonable statistical comp his matches on the comparables front. They're just not that strong within the model. With that being said, he's got age on his side. His breakout score was really strong, and now his size, speed profile, the raw tools, those are probably gonna get him boosted into at least the teams from a draft capitol standpoint. I know some are saying that he can now go top fifteen. Overall, he had a great combine. Bucky Irving was looking like he might be a James Cook type running back in this class. It's really hard to buy into that kind of outlook now though, as I said earlier, running back weights an input in the model. I fully recognize that some teams have become more progressive with the way that they use their smaller running backs, but the correlations absolutely there. A small back isn't just dismissed by the model though. In fact, the ZAP model loves Jamier Gibbs and Avon a Chan, but both of those guys had really good marks across the board. Bucky Irving isn't quite there. Irving weighed in at just one hundred and ninety two pounds. Okay, fine, We knew that he was smaller, but then he went out and he ran a four five five forty. The ZAP Model's database includes every running back who either went to the combiner who was drafted since twenty eleven. Over this timeframe, thirty five running backs weighed in under two hundred pounds and then ran a four to five forty or slower. Only Kyron Williams and Andre Ellington were able to score ten or more PPR points per game and one of their first three seasons in the league, Irving went from maybe being a James Cook type back to being more of a Dion Lewis type back. Now at his moments and he had a long career, hailed a pit by the way, but he just wasn't consistent enough. I'm afraid that Irving is headed down that path. Sticking with running back Trey Benson is one of the harder ones for me in to prospect this season. The ZAT model is not in love with him because of an average breakout scorer and a below average total yards per team play rate that's the top production metric in the model. But Benson showed off his ability to force miss tackles in college and he has the right size to be a bellcow in the NFL. He also went out and he ran a four to three nine forty. He had one hundred and sixteen speed score. Now to me, a healthy Jonathan Brooks is probably the RB one in this class, but I think given his injury and the fact that he might not be fully one hundred percent in twenty twenty four. Benson's probably the RB one in this class at this point. There are some really scary marks to his production profile, but number one, it's a week class overall, so it doesn't take as much to be the RB one, and number two there are at least some reason for the weaker production profile, the main one being that he was hurt to start his collegiate career, making it far more difficult to break out earlier. So Benson, to me, he's a combine winner. The biggest tight end winner at the Combine this year was Theo Johnson. There's no doubt about it. Johnson's coming out of Penn State, and like many Nitney Lyons in the past, he tested as a freak athlete. His speed score ended up being one hundred and eighteen, the top mark in the class by far, and when you combine that with sort of a weaker production profile because the score was as strong as it was, he's looking like a top three tight end in the class right now. Now. Jaheem Bell is still liked by my model a little bit more, but Bell's not really the traditional size of an elite fantasy tight end, Theo Johnson at six six, two fifty nine. That guy's a monster. He's definitely a name to watch on draft day. Troy Franklin someone who probably took a hit over the weekend. Now, I do watch the drills, and he didn't look as smooth catching the football as some of the other wide receivers of the combine this year. Franklin's got a lot of speed, but he was clocked as pretty slow during the gauntlet in particular, and he was all over the place during that drill too. Now, that stuff definitely does not go in as an input in the model. His forty time doesn't either, and neither does his frame. But he did weigh in about ten pounds lighter than I expected him to, and I'm sure teams feel the same way. So I do think there's a chance that Franklin drops a little bit in draft capital as a result of all of this. And it doesn't help that players like eighty Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, even lad Maconkie they had good combines, so teams might prefer those players over at Troy Franklin. Nothing will change in the model aside from draft capital, but I think draft capital might have taken a hit for Franklin this weekend. The last combine loser for me is Adric Estimate. I don't think anyone expected him to run brilliantly fast, but a four to seven one forty that's not going to cut it. Even at two hundred and twenty one pounds. His speed score dipped under ninety, so we got dinged. In the ZAP model. Estima has a decent breakout score, but I do think there's a chance that we see him push as mostly an early down guy in the NFL, and that speed just didn't help. In the Prospect Model database, we haven't seen a single successful running back who ran a four to seven or worse at the combine that since twenty eleven, and by successful I mean a player who did much of anything over the first three years of his career. The best one is basically Theo Ritic, another Notre Dame running back, but he was a pass catcher. Estimate doesn't have the same skill set. It's also kind of weird that Notre Dame running backs just seem to do this. I don't think this has any signal, but Kyron Williams was another bad speed score running back who ended up being okay in the NFL, but regardless, estimate dropped for me after seeing that straight line speed. It needed to be better. Last, but not least, Isaac Grendo. Grendo ended up with a third best running back speed score in the ZAP Model database after running a four to three to three for at two hundred and twenty one pounds. My man can run. Grendo really doesn't have an impressive production profile. Overall, his best season in total yards per team play bottom five in the class. His pro rated reception share in his best season is still under ten percent, and because of his low yards per team play mark, and because of his age, he's gonna be twenty three point eight years old by the time the draft hits. Because of those reasons, he has a breakout score of zero. All of that is very bad, but I do have to say his profile shares a lot of similarities to Isaiah Pachecko's. I know a lot of people are probably gonna make that connection, but Pachecko is now Girndo's top comp. Girndo has a slightly lower BMI, but they're both bigger body backs. Girndo had a one hundred and twenty five point seven speed score, Pachecko was at one hundred and eighteen point five. Gorendo's top season in pro rated reception chare was nine point eight percent Pachecko's nine point six percent. Girndo had a top yards per team play of one point one point one ko one point two to one. Grendo did look better in a lot of metrics that PFF tracks, like avoided tackles per rush, explosive run rate, and yards after contact per attempt. But on the other side, Pachecko was more than a year and a half younger when he was drafted. Age definitely favors Pachecko, which is why his breakout score is higher, But for ZAP model purposes, the two have a lot of similarities. Here's the thing, though, when someone says, oh, this guy's just Isaiah Pichecko, people are gonna run with it. Part of the allure with Pacheco a couple of years ago was his fit within the offense, alongside the fact that he was free in rookie drafts. Anytime we get a player like Grendo getting steamed up this early, there's risk that he gets overdrafted. In rookie drafts. Pachecko ended up hitting, but there are plenty of players who had Pachecko like metrics who haven't hit two, so this is still a risk reward thing. Always keep cost in mind for now, though. Gorendro's definitely an intriguing prospect given his athleticism, and I would imagine his draft stock improved dramatically over the weekend. There are definitely some other players I could have called out on today's show, but I think the ones that I did call out were the most important. As always, if you have questions about any of this, you can ask them for a future mailbag episode. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Ajo follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I got a mailbag episode dropping on Friday. I'll talk to you then.