Clase & Ortiz indicted for pitch rigging, Projecting top Japanese free agents Murakami & Imai

00:00:03
Speaker 1: We got a lot to do today. Happy Monday, Ron Kratz. AJ joining us soon. For those of you who cry when AJ's not on, don't worry. He will join us soon. I missed a lot on Friday. You guys had a great show with Polar and JERROLI. I mean, there were decisions made on qualifying offers, Fairbanks, enters the boldas a free agent. I could have spent a lot of time talking about the Rocky situation. We'll try and get some thoughts from AJ at some point on everything that he missed, maybe during some breaks. But for me, Kratz saw the headline initially and I'm like, Rockies did it. They finally went outside the org and they're bringing someone in who's more analytical and tech oriented. And then I was like, they're bringing someone who's been out of the game for ten years and is a part of top three dumpster fire franchise in the NFL.

00:00:56
Speaker 2: At least it's ten years at least now. Yes, he still has relevant information the Rockies don't have yet. So that's good.

00:01:03
Speaker 1: From twenty fifteen.

00:01:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, do you know say the game was strange? They still they're still back before twenty fifteen, So this is this is.

00:01:14
Speaker 1: I don't know.

00:01:15
Speaker 2: I tried to spin a good light on it. This wasn't good.

00:01:20
Speaker 1: The best comment I saw when that first came out was someone who was going through how many years behind they are, and they were like, oh, just wait till they get to twenty seventeen and discover Apple Watches.

00:01:31
Speaker 3: I lost it.

00:01:34
Speaker 1: Anyway, we'll mix in some news from last week. We got a lot to get to from the weekend, so let us charge charge beeds are coming in hot. Manuel Classe and Luis Ortiz have not played ball for a while while this investigation was going on, and now it all comes out in droves over the weekend. They're indicted. They're facing up to sixty five years in federal prison if convicted on all charges to rig bets on individual pitches. Thrown charges include wire fraud conspiracy, honest services wire fraud conspiracy, conspiracy to influence sports sporting contests by bribery, and money laundering conspiracy. Both of them, through their legal representation, said they're totally innocent and they've done nothing wrong. They do get to go through the court process. Luis Ortiz seemed like he opted on board way later. According to these allegations. Man class A has been involved with a lot of crap here for a while. If you're going off what's happening, and they didn't make that much money off it, especially class A who's making millions of dollars every year. But it gets really specific and detailed with class A and friends and phone calls and being around people and giving them money to place bets on individual pitches. Right, Hey, I'm going to throw this pitch. I'm going to throw a ball. I'm going to throw a pitch above or below a certain miles per hour. Those are all things that his buddies or his whatever you want to call them colleagues in this scheme we're placing money on and winning money on. Except for one situation where Andy pais so down in the dirt. Your thoughts on how crazy the details are here?

00:03:30
Speaker 2: The details are like I can't like, I can't get away from the details. The details are so like specific. He called somebody or he conversated with him for like four minutes before he was going to go in the game. I'm not saying he was warming up, but he was, Like I guess he knew he was going in the game. I don't remember the exact timeline, and then he sent texts and sure enough the bet hits. The details are crazy to me because as a player, I knew nothing about this. Now, not playing, I started to learn a little bit more about it, but even more like I didn't even know about this. I didn't know that this was something that you could do. And then my mind goes, well, why is he Why is he doing this? I'm sure we'll get to it later, but why is he doing this? Why did he feel like did he feel like his career and his money that he was making was just wasn't going to be enough. He being the best closer in the game for a little bit wasn't going to be enough financially for him. So he needed twelve thousand extra dollars.

00:04:41
Speaker 1: Oh but AJ, there's too much temptation. There's too much temptation here. What's up has it going? I mean, you got to give him some credit here. There's so much temptation thrown his way. What are you kidding me? Temptation, temptation in the world for everyone, And we say no, I can deal drugs, but I don't.

00:05:01
Speaker 4: You don't, You don't, I don't.

00:05:03
Speaker 1: Why because you're get in trouble for you?

00:05:05
Speaker 4: Sure? Are you sure?

00:05:07
Speaker 1: EDC?

00:05:08
Speaker 4: Was this week with that? Hey? EDC was this weekend? Scott, are you sure you don't die?

00:05:12
Speaker 1: I didn't go. I didn't go. But yes, so there are a lot of temptations. You could do things illegally for business. But if you do, yes, there are ramifications. Are we supposed to feel bad because betting is legal and they regulate it, and so now they're able to catch him because all of a sudden they're like, wait, why is everybody? Why is there massive amounts of money being placed on one pitch by classic? That's how you catch this crap. So we're supposed to feel him happy?

00:05:36
Speaker 4: No, I'm happy. Listen. I had a whole thing this past weekend where I was talking to people and they were like, I don't understand this whole betting thing. And I said, you know what the problem is. It's regulated now. It wasn't regulated before. Now it's regulated. Before it was just with bookies. When Pete Rose was betting on baseball, we had to count on the bookie getting caught. Now it's regulated so they can see that. Oh wow, all of a sudden, fifty grand was bet on Class eight throwing a pitch that bounced three feet in front of the plate, or Teas threw a pitch that bounced seven feet in front of the plate, and god forbid Andy Payes swing at one because he swung on one. And then we get the sad puppy face where it's like.

00:06:14
Speaker 1: All in the details?

00:06:16
Speaker 4: Am I not right?

00:06:16
Speaker 1: How many details there were? How reckless this was? At least again, I get it allegations, but the Feds have been working on this for a while. Were you shocked at how much they found with class A, specifically putting so much together with people around.

00:06:31
Speaker 4: Him, Yes, because then he brought another guy in with him. But what I don't understand his class A was in line to make ten million dollars, twelve million dollars, he was in line to make thirty forty million dollars, and he did not. He wanted five grand quick, like dude, Like, there's other ways to make five grand quick. Do a signing a manual cost. I could do a signing, He'd be.

00:06:53
Speaker 1: Fine, right, can't just tell your agent, Hey, I want to do some extra signings locally. Find some spots where I pop up. I need a little bit of extra cash. I mean again, I just want to make sure this is clear. Luis Ortiz not poor on the contract, but you know, early on in his career making league minimum seven hundred to something thousand dollars in normal life.

00:07:15
Speaker 4: Many people you're yeah, of course.

00:07:18
Speaker 1: But I just want to emphasize, dude, class A, it's making so much money in life term. It was.

00:07:27
Speaker 4: In line to make fifty million, fifty million dollars, like ten million dollars a year for years coming up, for multiple years. He did this for five thousand dollars five.

00:07:39
Speaker 1: Grand, Yeah, I think twelve technically right, it was a five and then a seven piece or something. And in my mind, yeah, we don't have by the details, I could see class A potentially making more on this so far based on all of the allegations that I've seen. Maybe there's been some money trails that weren't caught, but either way, nothing close to it making sense for him to put his entire career and to put his life from a criminal standpoint on the line. I mean, up to sixty five years in prison. Are they going to get that? Probably not. Are they going to ever play baseball again?

00:08:15
Speaker 4: Man?

00:08:15
Speaker 1: It is going to take some hell of a turnaround case here to convince everyone that you weren't involved in this. So now I mean we'll go back to the case and everything too. Hey, the Cleveland Guardians had themselves one of the cheaper top closers in baseball for a while. They did okay without him towards the end of last season, but he gone.

00:08:38
Speaker 2: And it's and obviously this is you know, we're assuming he's guilty based on the facts. This isn't major League Baseball doing the investigation. This was a federal investigation. Based on the facts that we read, we're assuming he's guilty. And that's where my you know, that's where my opinion comes from when I say this. Manuel Class was also a steroid user, performance enhancing drugs and twenty two. So I don't feel like maybe all of his decisions are really like tightened up. I don't think he makes some pretty poor decisions. So like he's never gonna play in Major League baseball game and good for good for a Dominican team that didn't let him play in the dr either. Yeah, he was trying to go to house.

00:09:20
Speaker 4: Dude, you can't compare steroids in gambling because steroids decisions. But forget decisions, decisions. Yes, But we talked about this the other day. Everyone's like, oh he did steroids, Oh boo hoo oh, And then oh he's fine now, because I'll be honest with you, if I look back on my career and I played in the steroid error, why would you not do him? If you're going to get a one hundred million dollars two hundred million dollar contract. Oh, I have to give up five million dollars, but I'm still making one hundred ninety five million, okay, And no one remembers, like, I'm not going to the Hall of Fame, right, I don't know. So, like that's not lump steroids and gambling and the same thing, because gambling is on a whole different level that affects absolutely the integrity of the game. Although any take your integrity and watch me swing at this ball in the dirt.

00:10:10
Speaker 1: He's just saying he's made some wrong decisions. And also, yes, I mean back in the day, there were really no repercussions for Royd's. Now there are. It's tested, you get caught, you get banned, free specific amount of games. Zach Maizel and The Athletic wrote in his story on this about a specific detail, for example, and Crats alluded to this somewhat April twenty six, three sixteen pm. Just before he entered the game in the eighth inning, he texts and associate associate who's sitting in the stands at the ballpark. Then they have a two minute phone call, which is against MLB rules. You're not allowed to do that during games. Anyway. Four minutes later, a group of betters win eleven grand wagering a particular pitch by class would register at slower than ninety seven point nine to five miles an hour. And then he hung out with those people after the game. Oh wow, I mean that is that is reckless. That is reckless.

00:11:06
Speaker 4: How do you know this? How do you know this? That's what I want to know. You're like, I'm gonna this ball. I mean, I know, I guess you mean yeah, but his slider is like a hundred.

00:11:18
Speaker 2: Anyways, his cutter, his cutter is pretty hard. Yeah.

00:11:24
Speaker 4: But but my thing is like, you're like, I'm just gonna yank this one straight into the dirt, which he tried numerous times, and so do Ortiz Like, listen, I'm not saying they're guilty, but from looking at the evidence that I've seen, and I've read this whole thing, it's hard to argue that something wasn't off because it was always the first pitch, right. It was like, oh, first pitch, watch this and then they go dig in the mound and they're like, oh, I get it. They might not be guilty, but wow, if I'm looking at this from the outside, I'm thinking, Wow.

00:11:58
Speaker 1: There's so much surveillance to bank security footage captured class A withdrawing fifty g's in cash. He gave fifteen k to one of the better who was in Cleveland that day to wager on that pitch. They've been working hard on this one to gather evidence.

00:12:16
Speaker 4: I didn't see though, I didn't see what what did class his agentsy or his attorney. He's not guilty, he's.

00:12:22
Speaker 1: Not yet, yeah, But so then it's really it's ortiz is as long class as class as attorney just says.

00:12:34
Speaker 4: What if you pull out fifty grand and hand it to a guy or whatever it was, and then he bet on that pitch? Like, doesn't that that seems fishy.

00:12:42
Speaker 1: I'm just saying fishy among men? What about if what about if you place a phone call and say go in the game. Here's what's gonna happen.

00:12:54
Speaker 4: You can't do going in. I'm going in and one out? Was he was he like this on his phone as you've warming up. Was the bullpen coach down there, like he's like, hey, you can't be on your He's like, hold on, let me text my friend. Tell him I'm gonna throw first fish ball.

00:13:07
Speaker 1: Like what I mean, that's what it appears. That is what this indictment from the DOJ says. And yes, his attorney said class has devoted his life to baseball and doing everything in this power to help his team win. Emmanuel is innocent of all charges and looks forward to clearing his name in court. So clearly, at least initially here, there's no plea deal or anything like that. And again for legal ramplifications, we have to say he's going to court. We're not assuming he's guilty. We're just like everybody else, looking at a ton of evidence that has been thrown out there already in this initial report.

00:13:43
Speaker 4: Usually the Feds don't go after you unless you're they have a pretty good case. I'm just saying, just throwing it out there, Cratz. They usually don't go after you unless they have a pretty good case. And if you're for teesses in custody, right, worst class is he not in custody?

00:13:58
Speaker 1: No, he's not yet, He's he's not here right, Yeah.

00:14:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ortiz was in Boston, so he went into custody or in New England. I think it's up in New England somewhere somewhere up there.

00:14:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was arrested in Massachusetts. Talking about Luis Ortiz. The Ortiz case, you know, is definitely containing less evidence. But that doesn't I mean, if you do one time, the way it works in baseball at least is you're gone. It's not like, oops, I did that one time? Can I forgiveness? There is no second strike policy. It's one time and you're out. And they do have communication with Class A talking to Ortiz and saying to say, when you're getting that money sent to you in the dr to say, it's for repairs at the country house. So there's a lot here you can read about it. There are excellent reports and articles on this topic. This episode of FT's brought to you by Square. Your favorite neighborhood spots run on Square. Give me an example in pennsylvaniacrats.

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Speaker 2: Square.

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Speaker 1: See you in the neighborhood again. That's Square dot Com, slash go, slash foul to learn more. New National's head honcho Paul Taboni says, f the rules, I'm going to hire a thirty three year old manager. Oh, and they say that he should have a bench coach who was managed before in MLB and been a long time member of a coaching staff. Are in a dugout? Well, we get the tweet here from our main man, Ken Rosenthal Here, a FT senior insider and reports for The Athletic that Michael Johns, the Race first base coach the past two seasons, will be the bench coach for Blake Uterra on the national staff. John's managed the Race Triple A club in twenty twenty three and five other affiliates over eight seasons. AJ is that the right choice?

00:16:34
Speaker 4: Sure?

00:16:35
Speaker 1: Without knowing the person, is that the right choice? Or not have someone who's got the MLB experience?

00:16:39
Speaker 4: Why not? He managed a Raised Triple A club in twenty thirteen. Sure, anyone wants to be part of the Rays? So why not?

00:16:48
Speaker 2: Sure?

00:16:49
Speaker 4: I mean, what do you want me to say? I don't know, but apparently the Rays are rebuilding after rebuild in another NATS.

00:16:55
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:16:56
Speaker 4: I mean, sorry the Nats, Sorry the Rays Nats. I mean, at this point, I'm getting them all confused because they're meshing like this, Scott, They're like one the same. That's raise. I mean, I don't know what they're doing. I mean, sure, this is great I don't know. They're not currently not spending any money, so the learners want to sell the team. So at least we got that going for us. So you don't have money in the manager or the bench coach. So we'll see how it goes.

00:17:17
Speaker 1: That's why Paul Taboni is smart, because he's going to get time to do this rebuild and then by the time that his selections are ready to go, the team will be sold and then he should get more resources. So I think it's actually smart on his part. I think he's going to do a good job to Bonie. I just think it's going to take time. You see on this MLB Rumors title here from CBS Sports Padres close to extending gm AJ Preller. That was coming out via The Athletic from Dennis Lynn. It sounds like during the intro press conference for Greg's Stammon, they also are going to talk about Preller getting an extension. It's actually pretty controversial if you go off fans. I think he's had a lot of success bringing the team to the postseason. I mean Dodger fans are like, oh, just have him keep leading you to losses? Whatever do we forget? The Padres were not good for most of their existence, and they've had a lot of playoff relevancy. I know more teams make the playoffs now, but Krazinski, I think Preller overall is doing a good job keeping the team exciting and putting butts in seats.

00:18:23
Speaker 4: He's done a great job. You know why, because he has a great name. First of all, he has a great first name. Second of all, he's done good. But they haven't won. They haven't gotten the ultimate prize, right, they haven't been able to beat the Dodgers. They haven't been able to They did twenty two, but they haven't been able to get the ultimate prize, which is the World Series. And he's done a really good job with what he's been dealt with. And the best part about AJ Preller is he's not afraid to go for it. He is not afraid to go for it. He goes for it. He goes for it, and as a fan and as a Padres fan, you have to love the fact that he goes for it.

00:18:57
Speaker 1: And some of those signings were more Peter Sidler, you know, when when he was sick, like Bogarts and others. So hey, we're back, so AJ, we didn't have you for the first like two minutes of the show, so whatever, Like, don't yell at me. No, No, I'm doing this because we missed you Friday. I wasn't on Friday either, and there were a lot of good topics. So your thoughts on the rock, he's hiring Deep Podesta, the Rays not keeping Pete Fairbanks to at least trade him where he's from. This more in free agency and we can get to the qualifying off. I have a couple questions there too. But on those two thoughts, First of.

00:19:34
Speaker 4: All, Pete, I hope you get every dollar. I text him and I'm like, I hope you get every dollar and buy lots of Legos and have a great career, because eleven millions not a lot for a really good closer. And then, second of all, Paul Deepodesta, Yeah, Jonah Hill didn't nailed him in Moneyball. He was mad because they made Jonah Hill fat and he's not fat, so he remember Paul de Podesta was mad about that. But that's just one of many not actual facts that happened in that movie that people love so much. And second of all, I need to call my buddy that owns the Browns and find out if he's really mad that they got rid of him or not, because I haven't done that so I don't know, but yeah, I mean, hey whatever, at least the Rockies went outside the Rocky box.

00:20:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Browns have like two losses per every win since he's been behind the scenes.

00:20:19
Speaker 2: How do you go?

00:20:20
Speaker 4: This is? This ranks right up there with Jerry Kross. Remember Jerry Kross was a baseball guy and he went to basketball and he had Michael Jordan. He's like, oh, look, how great of a look, how great of an executive I am in basketball? I mean, yes, you know what, Scott, I could run the Bulls when they have Michael Jordan, Scottie pipp and Dennis Rodman, Tony Kuk coach, you know, Luke Longley, Bill cartright, like I could have probably won a championship in Phil Jackson. Yeah, Horse tram was in Orlando magic. Don't ever forget that a.

00:20:49
Speaker 1: Sport where there are five players on the court at one time, and one player can have the ball most of the time.

00:20:54
Speaker 4: All the time, and it's also the best player of all time, all time, all time and could do so many things, take all the shots. Yeah, that's usually a good way to go.

00:21:02
Speaker 1: Rockies are a tougher project. Tougher project for.

00:21:06
Speaker 4: The Rocks because when they have the ball, the ball goes out of the park a lot.

00:21:12
Speaker 1: Correct, It'll be fun. I like the out of the box hires for us as a show, it's fun to cover. Let me get this, John Hammond tweet fired up because this is a topic we will get to later with one of our guests who is going to specialize in some of the talent coming over from Japan. Sable Lions say they are going to post star pitcher Tatsuya am I, the righty who throws up to ninety nine miles per hour, should be one of the top three free agent pitchers. According to John Hammon. He puts Dylan Seeson from Barbaldez up there as well. I think Ranger Suarez might have a beef to pick, a bone to pick, but anyway, this is going to be a highly coveted pitcher and it is perfect timing because we just saw what some other talent from Japan has done really well in the World Series. Yamamoto obviously otan right, like clearly aj we're getting talent over from Japan that is showing us maybe more success than ever. Aside from just those two superstars, there are plenty of talented players in Japan right now that are coming over and having instant success.

00:22:14
Speaker 4: All Right, we'll see him.

00:22:16
Speaker 1: You think they're all going to sign.

00:22:18
Speaker 4: In La not Mark.

00:22:21
Speaker 1: He's not going to sign Murakamie. I know you guys talked abou him a little Friday. We're gonna do a lot more on him. He's not gonna sign with the Dodgers. I don't think he is.

00:22:27
Speaker 4: I'm just saying, what am I am I? How do you say? Am I?

00:22:30
Speaker 1: My?

00:22:32
Speaker 4: Am I going to sign with the Dodgers? And are you going to sign with the Dodgers? I don't know, but I think he's got to shoot Dodgers.

00:22:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred and seventy two strikeouts in one hundred and four innings. That's what he had this past year.

00:22:49
Speaker 1: Two hundred million dollars. I think he might get close to two hundred million dollars.

00:22:56
Speaker 2: He's not as refined, he's not as refined command wise as Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But but but it keeps getting better, right, Can they continue his trend of throwing more strikes? We'll see.

00:23:14
Speaker 1: He's gonna get a lot of money. He's a little older coming into free agency than Yamamoto is. I think I think as twenty seven. But if Yamamoto got three fifty, and even if this is pegged, does at number two or three starter versus a one at this age, I think we might be pushing two hundred million. Maybe I'm off, but krats pop quiz what has thirty five grams of protein, six grams of fiber, twenty seven essential vitamins and minerals. Comes in excellent flavors like of course chocolate, vanilla, but chocolate, peanut butter, my favorite, no added sugar, gluten free, under five dollars per meal, and is ready to drink.

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Speaker 1: Also, there is a new Daily Greens ready to drink forty two vitamins, minerals and superfoods, only twenty five calories on that one pograms of fiber. There's flavors like blueberry, apple peach. Huel makes healthy eating simple. They also just launched into Target stores nationwide. Try both products today with fifteen percent off your purchase for new customers with the codefoul at huel dot com slash foul. Use that code foul and fill out the post checkout survey to help support FT. There's some beef about awards, so let's show at least one of these tweets and then we'll get the other in there. We have time, otherwise we can put it in and another one of these breaks. First one is from Lumerloni. He said the Platinum Glove is decided by the fans, not ten percent, so then coaches, players, front offices can really pick the winners. There's no way any postseason award in any sports should be decided by a fan vote. I had no idea people take these awards series. Apparently MLB doesn't, so there is a lot of outrage online. Tatista won Platinum Glove in the National League and there's like a ton of players from most Metrics above him A ton in the National League.

00:25:17
Speaker 4: Is this true?

00:25:19
Speaker 1: I mean, if Lo's tweeting about it, he's pretty dialed in. I guess I don't pay attention a lot to the process for those I'm very dialed in on BBWAA, which are the real major awards out there.

00:25:30
Speaker 4: But what do you mean they crushed the gold Gloves. They put them on a Sunday night. Well, Sunday night football is going on. Nobody even knew that they were given out. And they did the same thing with the Silver Sluggers, which I guess isn't that big of a deal for slugger or rawlings, But yeah, I didn't even know. I mean, this is I like the better when the coaches got to vote on all this stuff and now it's kind of been given to the fans and front offices, and I mean, come on, I don't know, I don't know.

00:25:59
Speaker 1: Fan vote for awards is tough, all star, I get it. Awards, that's tough. Fans are going to often treat things like a popularity contest, which is their right. Why are they If you're a Padres fan and they do a great job voting, they're all going to vote for tatis are gonna be like, I look, I crunch the numbers and Patrick Bailey actually deserves it. How many fans are going to do that if they're a Padres fan, No chance, no chance.

00:26:29
Speaker 2: It demeans a little bit of the Platinum Glove, and I think the other years the Platinum Glove was did go to the highest rated defender based on a couple of different metrics. So the fan voting, I'm reading it here, it's his fans and the Society of American Baseball Research vote for the Platinum Platinum Glove award. It's a combination of fan voting and Saber metrics, essentially Saber Defensive Index determining the winner for each league. I think they got it wrong this year, but I mean it doesn't mean that Fernando Tatist didn't have a good year. Okay.

00:27:07
Speaker 1: Eric Longenhagen is here. Fangraft's lead prospect analyst put out a really good article about a week and a half ago documenting what we should expect from some of the players coming over from Japan in this free agent process. Eric, great to have you on. I'm going to focus really on two players during this conversation. Let us begin with Munataki Munataka Murakami, and the reason I want to bring him up first is because he's a big deal out in Japan. He's got the home run record set in twenty twenty two fifty six homers. Yet if you look online there are a lot of very smart analysts and writers who think that he might end up being the next Joey Gallo in Major League Baseball with a nine figure contract. Let's just go right to the good stuff. What do you think about Mura Khami?

00:27:55
Speaker 3: Well, thank first of all, thanks for having me on. Nice to meet you, guys.

00:28:00
Speaker 5: I think if he ends up having a career similar to Joby Gallo, that you call that a win, Like a guy who.

00:28:06
Speaker 3: Has three forty homer seasons in the big.

00:28:09
Speaker 5: Leagues would be a pretty good outcome for someone who is swinging and missing as much as Murakami has been, you know, left into power like this is so rare and special and you can swing it and miss a lot, and as long as you're getting to your power, you're a productive and you know, sometimes exceptional big leaguer. But the list of players whose contact metrics are more in lockstep with Murakami's, you know, in the big leagues over the last however, you want to break it up five years, ten years, you want like a big enough sample of guys who have had a fairly long career, but but they're you know, quad A type players some of the time they're players who once they start getting expensive, they go to Japan. They're players who you know, once they hit are four, five six, they maybe get non tendered. Your Fran mil Ray is is you know.

00:28:58
Speaker 3: Players like that?

00:28:59
Speaker 5: So that's what you know we're looking at with Murakami where there's so much swing and miss as you get into the splits, like some of the splits that I would be looking at for players coming over from career or Japan to see how they perform against better velocity, to see how you know they do, you know, Chase Chase, watch from a play this standpoint or uh splits against different specific secondary pitch types. It all gets a little worse and worse the further you get away from Murakami's peak couple of seasons, which are now like three years in the rear view.

00:29:33
Speaker 4: All right, So then that's the one thing I asked. I've seen the stat out there where over ninety three or something he was not good against ninety three and plub and above. So how how worried should we be about these metrics because you're talking about two or three years ago when he was really great, but his numbers have declined. All the other analytics have declined. So if you're a big league team, why would you put you know, a nine figure deal and a guy that might hit you forty but he also might strike out thirty to forty percent of the I'm and not hitching forty homers.

00:30:03
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think, you know, just to cite it specifically, I'll do my Tony Kornheiser now where I look at my notes so I get it right. But yeah, like between twenty twenty three and twenty twenty five. So this is like a multi year sample which I wanted to take with Murakami because he was He's been hurt a bunch for the last twelve months. Twenty twenty four ended with injury, he had multiple throughout twenty twenty five. You know, it's a sixty four percent contact rate overall against fastball's seventy one percent contact rate ninety three and above sixty one percent contact rates, And just so like for context, if I'm just looking at like the big league leader board for the last handful of seasons, comparable players are like Bobby Dolbeck and Miguel Sono and Luke Railey and Christopher Morrell and players who are on the fringe, and.

00:30:48
Speaker 3: I think, you know, if you are a team that has a lot of money such that.

00:30:53
Speaker 5: You can risk it for your biscuit on this This is not a guy who I would expect to actually be in like the Mariners market, despite their needs, because they just haven't behaved in a way that would indicate, sure, we can throw one hundred million dollar contract at a guy who might swing and miss too much to be good for very long. But the Dodgers might do something like that, or the Yankees might do something like that, or the Red Sox, who'd argue did like a different version of the same thing with Masataki Yoshida, except where the power piece was just not there and the defense piece was not there. You know, they've felt free to do something, you know, greater than what most of the industry thought was kosher. In Murakami's case, like you have to a the injury piece of it could factor into, you know, your optimism if he's going to get better. Maybe it's just health. And then the other thing is, yeah, you have a player development department, and you show Munataka Murakami to that group and maybe come away with some preconceived notions about how you might make this guy better. Now, how much better does he have to be? Like, ultimately, you don't have to go far down this like swing and miss leaderboard basically until you get to Tai Oscar Hernandez, until you get to you know, Aaron Judge and Shoheo Tani who swing and miss a lot. They're just making such the quality of their contact and they make contact is so good. And like Murra Kami is not that type of physical beast like those guys. Ta Oscar is pretty close in terms of like Murakami's physicality and hits left handed, but it is like, you know, it's six percentage points or so of like worth of contact rate just overall, but it's like a ten percent bump for the contact hitter Murakami has been to this point, which is like pretty big. And I don't know how you guys feel about it, Kratzy and aj like how much of hitting is really innate and how much of it can be taught. I think there's a difference between learning how to hit and being taught how to hit, And I think some of the learning could just come with reps. There might be a learning curve for anyone coming over from Japan just because of the quality of stuff in the States, but like there might be some swing maintenance that could be done to make this a little bit more viable. And even if you know, like the hitters I mentioned Miguel Sono, et cetera, like there are peak seasons in there that you still feel good about overall, Like if you're a two war plus player, then you should be making like twenty ish million a year anyway. Like, so I think that he could get to be that, but I think the whole subset of teams is just not going to be in on this guy because of what the price is going to be for the handful of teams who think he's going to hit and maybe think that he can play third base.

00:33:32
Speaker 2: I talked to a prominent scout in the game, and he said, twenty twenty two, the year you were talking about. He said, it was elite level.

00:33:42
Speaker 4: It was elite level.

00:33:43
Speaker 2: It was high, it was velocity, it was low, it was breaking balls, it was in and out. He was covering everything. So to me, when you bring up somebody like a Joey Gallo, like you know those types of things, this is somebody who's done it at a high level. So that value should still be there because it's not like he's now on the wrong side of thirty Are teams putting all this out there saying, Okay, well, you know this is why we shouldn't pay for him, so that they squash down this Japanese market for a hitter who has power that we haven't seen out of Japan. To me, the ceiling is super high. Besides the fact that he might not be able to even play defense in the big leagues. The ceiling is super high. He just hasn't tapped into it the last few years.

00:34:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you could argue that.

00:34:36
Speaker 5: I think the angle that you're shooting there where it's like, what wouldn't team sources want to tell the media things that suppress the player's value. Yeah, And in the same vein, there are agents for these players who are telling members of the media the opposite. You know, maybe they would consider Tatsuya Emi to be the top pitcher on the market if you're his agent, I bet you do. You might like have a heavier comp on that guy. And if you have a friend who likes to tweet and has a lot of followers and like is maybe influential in the industry, then yeah, maybe you would hit the gas pedal a little bit as far as what you think about, Like, there have been Japanese pictures who have come over in the past where, you know, pretty transparently like people before I basically got off social media, you could see some of the comps being thrown around were like the same clients for the agent of the Japanese player that the writer was like comparing him to, Like it's you know there, there's definitely some of that going on, cratzy. This is my analysis. It's not my money to spend. It's it's super easy to say, hey, like this guy's got seven or eight raw so just give him whatever. And like maybe you can teach him not to load so deep, maybe he won't be underneath so many fastballs if.

00:35:55
Speaker 3: He's a little shorter to the baseball.

00:35:58
Speaker 5: But you know, that's more of a player development piece rather than a scouting piece. And just from where I'm sitting, like, there has to be either a rebound like you're talking about, or a mechanical change, some positive player development for him to be the sort of player who justifies, you know, like an enormous, enormous contract. But I still like him as a player, Like I still have him graded essentially as like an average everyday player, not.

00:36:26
Speaker 3: Some god like you know, forty Homer.

00:36:30
Speaker 5: He's hitting two fifty plus with like, you know, a three eighty OBP. Like that's not necessarily what I think this guy's gonna be. I think it's gonna be frustrating. And you know, the other thing to mention Eric is like rookie Sasaki at one point was hey, he's done this before, and this is how it looked.

00:36:49
Speaker 3: And then it trended worse for a couple of years.

00:36:53
Speaker 5: And I thought to myself, well, we've seen it in there before, why wouldn't be able to be able to see it in there again? And then he went to the Dodgers, who are as good as developing players as anyone, and there were real struggles, Like it wasn't just that putting on that uniform was a panacea for his issues. And so you know, I sort of have the same point of view as Murkami is concerned.

00:37:16
Speaker 1: Eric one more on this, and then I want to make sure we get a few minutes on the other name on Ami. How much does age factor into the entire value of what we're talking about here? We almost never have young free agents for baseball terms. Front offices live and die off of projection models and age curves. Some of this does have to do with the fact that, yes, it's a lottery ticket, but he's twenty five years old. You can get better at twenty five years old, and you also can't find twenty five year old position players with high upside on the market. So curious for your take there, and if you can mix into the part you said about mechanics, We've seen many guys adjust mechanically, whether they're here at that age or from overseas. Again, I don't know. I'm just presenting the other side here where we had like our pre production call and Crafts was like they said this about say a Suzuki, and he came over and he's been a pretty good player in the big leagues.

00:38:11
Speaker 3: Good.

00:38:12
Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree with that. I think that there's a difference between the evaluation and the valuation, and his age is a positive variable impacting the way you value that guy. But the swing and miss stuff is still there, and twenty five is twenty five.

00:38:32
Speaker 3: It's not thirty.

00:38:34
Speaker 5: And I agree that it's better for him to be twenty five than for him to be twenty nine. But the athlete we're talking about here is not a projectable athlete. It's not like Jacob de Gram where he's just sorry, the Hill's angels are my bodyguards.

00:38:48
Speaker 1: It's not like good line that.

00:38:51
Speaker 5: It's not like the their kids in my neighborhood are tool around on their motorcycles.

00:38:55
Speaker 3: I'm just jealous of the I'm not mad the.

00:38:58
Speaker 5: Murkami's like maxed out, like he's twenty five, but he's not really projectable in the way that some guys are physically projectable deep into their twenties and and maybe even beyond. This is like a stout, physically dense, like maxed out guy where I don't necessarily see there being the sort of like projection I was taught to include in my report, like when I'm assessing someone's peak in the future, doesn't really exist with this guy visually and athletically. It only exists in his age as just a number. So that is where a little bit of like my tepid enthusiasm for that sort of comes in. But yeah, I think he's a good player, just not like you know, there will have to be changes. I think if if he's going to be an absolute beast, Hey.

00:39:48
Speaker 1: Jay, you there last one? Nope, not un to dude, I think you're muted?

00:39:55
Speaker 4: What he muted me? Scott? Am I? I want to know. Am I going to the dog? Am? I going to the dogs? But what's his projection he is? Can he be a top end starter like Showdack came in his first year was a huge deal. Or you have Roki who didn't really do much till the postseason. Where does a my stand on that?

00:40:16
Speaker 5: Yeah, he's really interesting. I think some of what you guys alluded to before I hopped on where you mentioned that his strike throwing has improved year over year for like the last three four years, and that's true, But I think some of what was at play with Roki is definitely at play with Imai too, where when you throw as hard as these guys do in Japan, they just chase it more often, And I think some of your strike throwing looks a little bit better because you're gifted chase. And I think there's some of that going on for Emai. But I really love him. Like the durability piece of this, they really left these obviously, Like the week to week schedule was different for Japanese starters than big league starters. But the durability piece here, this guy was like sitting in the mid nineties comfortably at the very end of the season, and his fastball has real ride. His slider's excellent. He's really athletic, Like this is a really loose, whippy armed guy. He's deceptive because of the arm speed piece. He does not show hitters the ball until late. You know, you see him laying back like and you know he's he's parallel with the ground. So as an athlete, I really like him. His stuff is great. He just sure looks like a starter to me athletically and from a stuff standpoint, And I do think that the command piece of it is more fine than good. Definitely, you know, three three grades basically behind where I had Yamamoto when he was coming over, where Yamamoto was just like, you know, like I've had peak granky cumps on Yamamoto basically coming over he might, I think, is gonna be a good team's like third starter, Like he does strike me as the type of guy who can take the ball as a starter in a playoff series.

00:41:56
Speaker 3: That's how good he is.

00:41:58
Speaker 5: Where the durability piece and this and the athleticism check you know, those boxes pretty emphatically, and.

00:42:04
Speaker 3: Then we'll see.

00:42:05
Speaker 5: I think there's maybe some room for improvement for him delivery wise. I don't know if you guys have seen video of him, Like he's pretty short striding guy. I think he's more athletic than that and could like maybe stand to get down the mound a little bit more even, and there might even be like some positive improvements for him, I think once he comes comes over here, depending on the org, but yeah, I think he's quite good and it's going to get a big, big deal. You know, Ben Clemens, who does our top fifty free agents over at Fangrafts, has him stuff pretty good, and you know I advise on that and more or less agreed with where Ben's got him.

00:42:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's my good picture.

00:42:39
Speaker 1: Eric, good stuff, Man, appreciate it. You can find much more on this topic, of course on Fangraphs, and Eric has a right up, including many others that we're asked about in the chat. We just don't have time right now, but other players coming through, maybe we'll bring him back. Eric, Thank you, appreciate it.

00:42:52
Speaker 3: Man, talk to you know. I hope see you guys the six.

00:42:56
Speaker 1: Hundred and fifty five day drought is over. The have turned their replies back on for a post that was very coordinated. They said, from silver sluggerstall starts to Grand Slams this season, that's some pretty electric highlights. Comment your favorite home run our guys hit this year. Guess what most of the replies were about the reason they turned it off. Yeah, but also just like have some balls, just leave it on. Who cares if people are criticizing you a duh. Every organization is going to get praised and criticized. This one's going to receive more of it. So they've just stripped the city of a team. But there were fans in there that were actually commenting, answering the question. And yeah, you're going to get criticism because you don't really address the problem and your owner is a fool. It is what it is. It's crazy to me that they went this long. That's like almost two years where you can't reply to It's like why even have the account?

00:43:59
Speaker 2: It makes your connection if you watch, if you watch anybody go to a video post anything, most people go down to the comments unless you are specifically trained to be like Nope, I don't recomment because they're negative or whatever it is. People go right down to the comments. This just inhibits so much fan engagement with your team, which is so crazy to me, Like doesn't this team want that? It almost to be from major League Baseball.

00:44:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also it makes people laugh. Best comment was from a guy named Joe Martin Fisher's favorites where the two are judge homers in his minor league ballpark.

00:44:40
Speaker 2: That's good, good, great time. His own words. It was his own words, like we're getting to laugh, John, You're a funny guy. All the others say you're a funny guy, Like we can get laughs. It's okay.

00:44:53
Speaker 1: It's called social media.

00:44:56
Speaker 4: True. By the way, the gap in Orlando shutdown. I don't know what what Fisher's doing, but not only has he moved the team from Oakland to Vegas, but the gap closed in our mall, which I never thought I would see.

00:45:05
Speaker 2: The gap.

00:45:05
Speaker 4: Who Fisher owns I guess.

00:45:08
Speaker 1: Yes he does, perhaps selling it to stack up to be able to pay for the ball.

00:45:14
Speaker 4: The gap, like everybody used to go to the gap. The Gap was the ship back in the day. The Gap was the spot. No.

00:45:20
Speaker 1: Apparently his name and face affiliated with the company does not help the cause let's slap a lot of beef today and we're gonna do a bonus few minutes on YouTube before we send people to the Dodgers' Territory Live show. Do you guys want to hear from Jason Kelcey or the beef with the Dodgers and Drake pick one.

00:45:49
Speaker 2: Kelsey neither.

00:45:51
Speaker 4: I was gonna say the Drake one seems more real.

00:45:54
Speaker 1: Let's do Kelsey here and then we'll do the Drake one for after slap. We're gonna stamp baseball for what.

00:46:04
Speaker 6: Listen, just because the Phillies didn't make it doesn't mean the World Series wasn't absolutely epic. That was the awesome seven games of baseball. Man, it was back and forth. Yeah, both teams had their had their shining moments. Blue Jays are up all game going into the eighth inning.

00:46:21
Speaker 4: So you're telling me I'm supposed to get excited about a Canadian baseball team and.

00:46:26
Speaker 6: A team that just spends more money than everybody else who cares about either. Both of them spend more money than everybody's.

00:46:32
Speaker 2: It's baseball.

00:46:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why baseball sucks.

00:46:34
Speaker 6: That's why baseball, say he is buy World Series championships, is the dumbest thing in the world. I was enjoyed out of it.

00:46:40
Speaker 3: It's exciting, it's exciting.

00:46:42
Speaker 4: It's exciting that the team that spent the most money and everybody knew was going to win the World Series won the World Series.

00:46:48
Speaker 2: Hmm, I don't watch this.

00:46:49
Speaker 4: I didn't even want to justify this. I hope he was kidding, because listen, I'll give Travis credit because he stood up for the right thing. But the Chiefs, who his brother plays for, goes to the Super Bowl every year, right, and they're like, oh, the Chiefs, the Chiefs, and we have a salary cap the Chiefs. It's all good. And then the Eagles are the other team that wins. So it's Chiefs and Eagles, the two teams these guys played for. And then you go back and it was the Patriots forever that won every Super Bowl. So what is he talking about? He just he wanted us to talk about it. We talked about it. Congratulations JAYC. Way to go. Woo who you got your clickbait?

00:47:23
Speaker 2: He said. He started it out, I say, do you want me to cheer for a baseball team in Canada? Like, come on, come on? And then he's and then they're cutting in that out. There's funny satire there, good funny satire. So don't take it as he hates baseball. He doesn't hate baseball. There, he's on it, he gets it.

00:47:44
Speaker 4: Travis crat though, Travis stood up. Travis did the right thing. He stoo up because it was a great series. Whether you want to reform or not, Jason, it was a great world series cocing, So kudos to Travis.

00:47:55
Speaker 1: Yeah. See, I don't follow either of them much. I do know Jason's definitely got a little bit of comic vibes to him, so I think he's just messing around. I know he's a diehard Phillies fan, so he's probably a little bit.

00:48:09
Speaker 4: Shouldn't you be a Reds fan? SINCEI and his brother from Cincinnati? Oh wait, you know they don't care about that theah.

00:48:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, Travis. Travis doesn't say. He doesn't say Cincinnati, University of Cincinnati. He says New Heights High School?

00:48:26
Speaker 1: Does he really?

00:48:28
Speaker 2: Yes? Watch the watch their next you know when they announce you know, Eric, big game tonight, Big game tonight for the Philly Boys. Oh yeah, Eagles, Packers, go Birds. But yeah, so you gotta you gotta say the college that you're from, because I was hanging out with somebody last night who was from Cincinnati's like, I'm pissed. He never says university is Cincinnati. He says it's high school. Because I was laughing. I always liked that part of it.

00:48:56
Speaker 4: Is Taylor Smift went, was thatver? Taylor Swift went, that's what Travis.

00:49:02
Speaker 3: Don't.

00:49:02
Speaker 2: I don't know where else.

00:49:04
Speaker 1: We'll show the Drake stuff after the show goes off for TV. We have sixty seconds. Woodriff got a qualifying offer. Giolito did not. And Oh, Trent Grisham, I know you brought up the other day Kratz. I actually was kind of surprised him. But I was surprised that he got a qualifying offer. I know you said you thought.

00:49:22
Speaker 2: I'm not thinking it does.

00:49:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I was surprised he got one. Woodriff. I guess you could be surprised that it's the Brewers that are offering it, but well, I mean they clearly think that he is looking like an ace and they weren't worried about.

00:49:38
Speaker 2: The lat Yeah. And I think basically the qualifying offer is a team that's okay having that player at essentially twenty two million dollars. It's not quite twenty two, but it's And so the Yankees are okay with having a one year stop gap in center field with Trent Grisham.

00:49:56
Speaker 1: Right, we're back. We have the Drake clip, so we'll go to that for the last few minutes of the Bonus Show. Let's run it.

00:50:06
Speaker 7: I tried to keep like, I tried to stay humble, don't talk too much or but I.

00:50:10
Speaker 3: Mean, that doesn't go nice. You know, like when you do something like that, when.

00:50:14
Speaker 7: You kind of like disrespect a little bit the best player in the game, not understanding the quality of like the person and and what the guy has done for baseball, it's really hard to jump into conclusions at that time. You know, we lose Game three, ja Savage through a really good game and we're not doing anything else and kind of like praise the guy because he pitched the ball. He threw the ball really well, he pitched an amazing game. He's a different pitcher, he's a unicorn on the pitching side.

00:50:41
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, we.

00:50:42
Speaker 7: Got this guy right here, you know, like we all know who he is, but.

00:50:47
Speaker 3: You don't have to do that.

00:50:48
Speaker 7: Man, I show him, Danny, He's been doing everything and anything for baseball.

00:50:54
Speaker 1: So you know, Drake showed Otani striking out and said, savage already on the way to the dugout boss hellol Dodgers used it as bulletin board material and they had a lot of fun with it, I guess once they were celebrating, and also in the ballpark. Also, the Dodgers always played Kendrick Lamar's a little dis track that went uh platinum or whatever the heck they call it these days, they not like us so fun, beef cute. I think it's cute.

00:51:27
Speaker 4: Drake's from Drake's from the six, right, so he stood up for his team. There's a Drake curse forever, right, yea Drake, where's your jersey? Or in trouble? I mean, that's that's stakes I mean.

00:51:37
Speaker 1: But but also like he posted a picture of him striking out, did he was there something else that I missed? Like, that's pretty playful and fun.

00:51:47
Speaker 4: It's pretty awesome. He's a fan though, Yeah, why they unlike Jason? They unlike Jason, Unlike Jason Kelsey. I mean, Drake is a so good for him. He was rotten for his team. Right, he was watching.

00:52:01
Speaker 1: I give him just showing a strikeout is bad.

00:52:04
Speaker 4: That is a kind of an iconic photo though. There's just kind of an iconic photo of your tray Savage and the one where uh to hit the home bloody hit the home run, and he's like, I mean there's two two photos in the Blue Jays still lost, which is kind of funny. That's kind of more what they're saying.

00:52:20
Speaker 1: Two more things I want to do the guest list on our way out. But also the big debate in the chat today was best starting pitcher in the Dodgers rotation? Is it not Yamamoto in the power rankings right now? Pretty clearly? I mean people were talking about Otani. I guess maybe I don't know if anyone puts Sneller or last night out there, but Yamamoto.

00:52:38
Speaker 4: Easy, No, Yamamoto's all the way up. Nothing can stop them.

00:52:42
Speaker 1: That's good. That's good. Uh krats hats on the way out. And while you're getting that ready, Ken Rosenthal, Skip Schumacher and Tommy Kinley. On Wednesday tomorrow we have Jase Tingler and we will go over the al MVP debate with Ryan Divish and Chris kirsh Or for the Mariners versus the Yankee side Krats.

00:53:03
Speaker 2: People forget they lost their two pitches that we talked about the top and the Guardians still made the playoffs.

00:53:17
Speaker 1: Bet MGM put this out on ig. How did they do? MLB Champs? Ranking the last ten? They have the twenty twenty four Dodgers one, the twenty seventeen Astros two, Oh boy, the twenty sixteen Cubs, three, the twenty twenty five Dodgers for the twenty twenty two Astros five, then the twenty eighteen Red Sox, twenty twenty Dodgers, twenty nineteen. That's twenty twenty one Braves and twenty twenty three Texas Rangers. I feel like the Astros is a whole other category. I mean, do you want to slice and dice anything else on here.

00:53:47
Speaker 4: I'm I'm gonna let Crafts talk about their twenty seventeen Astros just because he seems like he would know more than I would about what happened there.

00:53:57
Speaker 2: I mean it, I feel like MGM was maybe trying to get us to look at the list when you put the Astros that high. That twenty two Astros team, that was nice. The seventeen one. I think maybe maybe it's too soon, but Joe Girardi told us Joe Girardi told us get over it, get over it.

00:54:19
Speaker 1: So yeah, but you can still rank them ten since they got in big trouble and you don't know what really happened, like, I.

00:54:25
Speaker 2: Mean there have to be ten. No, we know what happened. Ten.

00:54:29
Speaker 4: Actually we know what happened. There's no like we don't know what we know.

00:54:33
Speaker 1: I'm saying what they would have been like if they didn't have that advantage. So here we go. I tried to get us away from them, and we just can't. That dominates the list, It dominates the comments. Anything else on there that stood out.

00:54:46
Speaker 2: Twenty fifteen Royals need to be much higher.

00:54:49
Speaker 1: Sorry, okay, h the twenty fifteen Royals are not in the last ten.

00:54:57
Speaker 4: Yes, so we're Yeah, that's a from Krats.

00:55:03
Speaker 1: We went from twenty sixteen on oh sixteen. I was like, wait, are you?

00:55:09
Speaker 4: I thought he was trying to help.

00:55:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, if we did a list on the top fifteen or top twenty, yes we can put them higher.

00:55:16
Speaker 4: But Krats, you're not allowed to put the team you were on. Trust me, I learned when I did my my list for Fox the last time.

00:55:22
Speaker 2: That's the only reason I wanted to say it.

00:55:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, people, you're not allowed to pick your own team? Why not?

00:55:28
Speaker 1: This was really really productive. Hey there's a Pro Football same game parlay boost token to score a bigger payout bet MGM app go check it out. Gambling prom Or concern Call one eight hundred gambler