908: Week 2 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacherthas JJ zacher reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine and eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. At the start of every Sleeper show, I recap what happened during the previous week. I want to hold myself accountable, but also when I go back and look at what happened the previous week, it sometimes uncovers things that I just blatantly did incorrectly from a process standpoint. So with that in mind, here goes. Last week was understandably hit or miss. It was week one. We don't have that much information to work off of. On the bad side, Luke McCaffrey, andre Yosi Vash they weren't very usable. Neither was samaj p, Ryan Hunter, Henry Antonio Gibson, Dontavian Wicks, and Ray Davis. Definitely some l's in there. But the was some good on last week's show, some very good. Sam Darnold wasn't a bad call out as a deep sleeper. I got the Jamal Williams call correct. Jalen McMillan scored Gino Smith was absolutely fine, but Baker Mayfield was the QB two on the week, and JK. Dobbins he got a shout out. He ended up crushing the Raiders and the defensive streamers did their part two, So overall, not a terrible week. There were a lot of things that I learned and hopefully those things are gonna help me out here in week two. Now, before we get into the sleepers this week, if you missed the announcement yesterday, then you're not aware of a brand new Underdog offer that I have for you. As you know, during the summer, I was giving away a free Late Round draft guide to any new Underdog user who signed up with promo code Late Round. Now that we're in season, that draft guide doesn't matter that much, but my rest of season rankings do. If you head to underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up with promo code Late Round, not only will you get a deposit bonus, but you'll also get a to my rest of season rankings. They're updated every Tuesday and you'll get them all season long. Just head to underdog Fantasy dot Com sign up, and when you do use promo code Late Round. Once you deposit, you'll get an email to your inbox with a link to the rankings and tears. Now that that's out of the way, let's get to Week two sleepers. We'll start things with players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. Now, I can't go back to Baker Mayfield this week because he's now rostered in way too many leagues, and that's unfortunate because he's the most obvious play at quarterback versus other guys who are on the waiver wire. So I'll kick things off with Justin Fields, who at this moment is available in eighty six percent of Yahoo leagues. I told you on the fifteen Transaction Show how Week one wasn't really the norm for Fields, at least for Fields when he has that many rush attempts he finished the day with fourteen. Denver's defense isn't necessarily some cake matchup, but if the Steelers run Fields once again, that he should be able to produce more. Like I said, in his previous nine games where he hit more than ten rush attempts, he posts a top eight quarterback performance in eight of them. He's averaged over twenty five points per game in those contests. Now, I don't think he's going to be that high, but as long as fields goes, he's in that high end QB two range. Now that's all I've got a quarterback in this tier. I've got one more for you guys in the deep sleeper section. Let's go to running backs, where I've got Rico Dowdell. Now, the Cowboys are six and a half point favorites against the Saints and they have the fourth highest implied team total on the week. Ezekiel Elliott was the backfield favorite in Week one, but keep in mind that Zeke didn't play significantly more snaps than Rico Dowdle did, and he ran a similar number of routes while seeing ten rushes to Dowdle's eight. Zeke won out, don't get me wrong, but he didn't win out by that much. So while the fantasy totals look the way that they do, and I'd still play Zeke over Dowdell this week, don't be totally discouraged here with Rico Daudel. He's still seeing work, and he's seeing work in an offense that's projected to score a lot of points here in Week two. Next is the Miami backfield Jeff Wilson and Jalen Wright. Here's what I told Late Round Fantasy Football patrons on Tuesday night's live stream. Q and A and any of you can be part of that Patreon community by heading to Lateround dot com. But like I told him on Tuesday night, I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff Wilson gets more work than Jalen Right here in Week two with Raheem Mosterrit sidelined. With that being said, thinking more long term, I think you've got to want Right on your roster more. He was a good prospect and he really fits this run scheme. Well, It's not hard to imagine a scenario where Wilson has the better Week two, but Right is the better player rest of season. But you may want to just go with Right over Wilson this week. Anyway, There's plenty of variance with how the Dolphins might deploy their backfield, and for the record, this is assuming Devon Achan plays. If e Chan's out, I might just prefer Right straight up to Jeff Wilson in Week two because he'd be guaranteed some of that run in the backfield. But we know it's a good offense and They've got a top six implied team total on the week, and for what it's worth, Buffalo is also ninth worst in rushing EPA alout in week one. And then lastly, there's Alexander Madison. I talked about this on the fifteen Transaction Show, but if the usage in that Raiders backfield remains the exact same week in and week out as what we saw in Week one, then we're gonna prefer Alexander Madison over Zamir White rest of season. Antonio Pierce also came out this week talking about using a hot hand approach in that backfield. Now there's plenty of volatility here. They might just decide to use Zamir White differently this week. And I'm not overly optimistic about any of the backs on the Raiders this week against the Ravens, but the Raiders could face a negative game script and if that happens, that favors Madison. He saw a nineteen percent target chair in week one. His route participation was sixty percent, Zamir Whites was twenty. That means if the Raiders are trailing, we're gonna see more Madison than White, so you can at least give him a look, now, a wide receiver. Let's kick things off with Brandon Cooks. I'm actually really surprised that Cooks is out there in so many leagues right now. He's coming off a game where he saw twenty two point six percent target share and then he produced. He had fourteen and a half PPR points. That's why I figure that more people would go after him on the waiver wire. But without Jake Ferguson, or potentially without Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys are down to not a whole lot of pass catcher. We should expect another strong target share game for Brandon Cooks, and that's all we can ask for in a game where the team has a high imply team total. DeMarcus Robinson is my preferred choice for the Rams, you know, outside of Cooper Cup. To me, there's a lot less risk that he gets rotated in and out of that lineup throughout that game against the Cardinals this weekend, and that game's gonna be played without Pookinakua. But let's just talk about this situation because I have Tyler Johnson on my deep sleepers list. I brought up both guys on the fifteen Transaction Show. And a lot of what I said still applies. All of it still applies. Robinson has the experience and he has the production in this offense. He had five top thirty performances across his final six games. Last year. He ran more routes in Week one than Tyler Johnson did. Now some are saying that Tyler Johnson is the one to one replacement for Pukuinakua, and I think that's probably not wrong because DeMarcus Robinson is just a starter in that offense. And I like Tyler Johnson a lot as a prospect as well. I'm excited for him to get a shot. But there was something that Sean McVeigh said this week that I think is very very important, and this is via the coach speak index Greg Brainos, who was on Late Round Perspectives before the season. McVeigh apparently said on Monday, we've got Cooper Cup and de Marcus Robinson, then three other guys in two two at well, Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington, who have complimentary skill sets that we got to do a good of trying to accentuate that. I don't know about you guys, but that reads to me that DeMarcus Robinson is not at risk of losing snaps Tyler Johnson. There's a little bit more volatility. That's enough for me to prefer DeMarcus Robinson over Johnson. The Rams get the Cardinals, though, and Arizona entered the year with one of the worst secondaries in football. The Rams, despite being Nikoulis, they had the tenth best implied team total on this slate. So Robinson makes sense in your lineup. Tyler Johnson, He's more of a deeper play. I think you can look at the other side of the field there and go with Michael Wilson and Greg Dortsch too. Now I'm fully expecting a bounce back from Marvin Harrison after a really really bad Week one, but Greg Dortsch is coming off a game for the Cardinals where he in a twenty six percent target share. Michael Wilson was at six point five percent, But Wilson ran a route on ninety two percent of Arizona's dropbacks, dorts was at sixty eight percent. Now, this is obviously a small sample, but the Rams were pretty good against slot in Week one against Detroit, Jamison Williams got it done on the perimeter that might favor Michael Wilson a little bit more this week than Greg Dortch, but it's hard to get away from the fact that Dorch's targets per route run rate was so so high last week. Either way, both wide receivers make for decent exposure in a potential high scoring game. I'm not quitting ad Nai Mitchell. He didn't come through last week, but he could have had a couple of scores in that game against the Texans, and like I said on the ten Trends episode, his peripherals were not bad. In that contest. He had a twenty six percent target share and his row participation was seventy five percent. I think the fear with the Colts this week is how much they're gonna actually have to air it out because Green Bay doesn't have Jordan Love, but the peripherals the upside. That's enough for me to go back to Adanai Mitchell one more week. And then there's Wandel Robinson. Washington's secondary is absolutely brutal. We saw that last week. They actually gave up three slot touchdowns to wider or receivers in Week one against Tampa Bay. That's according to PFF. Now Wando Robinson is obviously not Chris Godwin and Daniel Jones is not Baker Mayfield. But Robinson did see a thirty one point six percent target share in week one, which is absolutely bonkers. If there's ever a week where the Giants could get things going through the air, it's week two. Because Washington's secondary is very bad. Now at tight end, I'm gonna go back to the Rams. I'm gonna talk about Colby Parkinson. His stat line was fine enough in week one. He scored eight point seven PPR points and he had a ten point four percent target share, but he ran a route at the ninth highest rate among all tight ends last week. And then obviously Pokinakua is out, so there could be more looks going his way than we'd otherwise project. And then finally we have our cardio king. Kate otten Aughton ran a route on eighty eight percent of Tampa Bay's dropbacks in Week one. That was the fifth highest mark in football. Now, obviously the Bucks took advantage of other matchups in that game, Aughton only had a seven percent target chair, but Detroit could be a better matchup. The Lines have been a top ten opponent for tight ends in each of the last three seasons. The Bucks could see a nice negative game script in that game too. Next, we have players who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues. So we're digging a whole lot deeper here, and I regret to inform you that we're starting things off with Daniel Jones. Like I said, Washington's secondary has been very, very beatable since the start of last season. Only three quarterbacks have failed to finish as a top twelve option against the Commanders Josh Dobbs, who faced them in Week one last year, Mac Jones, and Trevor Simeon. That's it. Desmond Ritter was the QB ten against them to Rod Taylor QB six, Tommy DeVito QB five, and then we saw what Baker Mayfield did to them last week. We know that Danny Dimes can bring a little juice with his legs, and this is a spot where he might be able to get it done with his arm too. Now, I don't have any running backs to call out in this tier. That's gonna happen from time to time. There just aren't many obvious plays. I'm not going to force it, So let's move on to wide receiver. Now, as I mentioned on the fifteen Transaction Show, this week, Jalen McMillan played as a starter for the Bucks. He's obviously competing for targets against two really good wide receivers, but he can still carve out a role in that offense. And it's an offense it's facing one of the better matchups this week when they go to Detroit. Not only could that game shoot out, but there's a chance for a negative game script for more passing. So McMillan is fine in deeper formats. And I can't believe I'm saying this, but Quentin Johnston he's making the show this week. In Week one, he ran the second most routes among Chargers wide receivers. He ended up seeing a twenty one percent target share, and his average up to target it was pretty reasonable at ten point six. Carolina was absolutely torched last week and that's who the Chargers get this week. So given usage, Johnston actually can work. Now. I've been mentioning on the Steelers just never do well against slot wide outs and that's partially led to Ray Ray McLeod leading the Falcons and receiving last week. This week, the Steelers get Denver, and Denver's top slotman in week one was rookie Devon Veley. Now, Veley's route participation it was just sixty one percent last week. That was lower than both Josh Reynolds and Courtland Sutton. But he did see a nineteen percent target share, and again he has the matchup in this game. He's only a desperation play, but I do think he's interesting. I wanted to call him out because of the matchup andre Yosibash. He gets one more shot this week. With t Higgins trending in the wrong direction. The whole entire Bengals offense disappointed last week, but Yoshi ran a route on every single Cincinnati dropback and he had a twenty one percent target share. Those are peripherals that you love to see on a team with Joe Burrow. You just have to hope that you get a better version of Joe Burrow here in week two. Now at tight end in this tier, Hayden Hurst as a revenge game against the Panthers, and I actually think that he's an interesting stream. He had a seventy nine percent rale participation last week and he had twelve percent of LA's targets. He was their tight end one and Carolina, like I've been saying, they're beatable, so Hearst is an okay deep streamer. And then there's Zach Ertz, who's probably a safer option than Hirst. He gets the Giants. Ertz had a seventy nine percent rale participation in week one and his seventeen percent target share. Again, we're just looking at peripherals here and we're leaning into them. Ertz is the tight end one on that Washington team, and he's facing a defense that a lot of top ten EPA per dropback rate last week against Sam Darnold and then in that exact same game for almost identical reasons as Theo Johnson. This is something I didn't bring up on either podcast earlier this week, but the rookie was the clear tight end one for the Giants in Week one. He had a seventy six percent role participation and an eleven percent target share against a beatable defense. He could find the end zone now at defense this week, the Chargers are now rostered, and too many leagues to mention here. Let's move on to some others. You could look at Seattle in New England because the Patriots haven't implied team total under eighteen points, and Jacoby Bursett was actually pressured at the highest rate in football last week according to Next Gen Stats, and then Jacksonville against Cleveland that seems like an obvious streamer as well. The Browns face the Cowboys last week. Yes, but Deshaun Watson was pressured at the third highest rate in football and he looked absolutely horrific. So I think the Jags are in play too. Now, just like last week, I'm gonna put together a Champions Mode entry over on underdog based on the sleepers that I just talked about. Last week's didn't work out. Ray Davis was just a couple yards off and ad Nai Mitchell just missed on multiple touchdowns. But I definitely got the JK. Dobbins one right. I actually feel okay about the process for those picks. But let's look at week two. There aren't as many choices as last week, but I'll make some picks based on what's available. The first player I'm gonna add is Daniel Jones. We're gonna go higher than two hundred and eight point five passing yards. Next, we're gonna go higher than thirty six and a half rushing yards for Ricodowdele because that's one of the players that's available. And then we'll finish it off with another Colby Parkinson touchdown. I say another because I thought he might score last week. So Daniel Jones higher than two hundred and eight and a half passing yards, which I think you can take standalone, then Rico Dowdle higher than thirty six and a half rushing yards, and then Colby Parkinson going back to Colby Parkinson as a touchdown scorer. Check all of that out over on Underdog Fantasy dot com and make sure when you sign up use promo code Late Round. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and know for to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. You got two episodes tomorrow the mail bag drops early in the morning, and then I got another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then