836: Week 11 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with with your host JJ zacher rethas j Jake zacher reethon what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and thirty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show was better than the one before that, so that's good. On the bad end of things, I was wrong about Taylor Heineke and Will Levis's streamers. Josh Reynolds had another bad day. Nick Westbrook a Keye wasn't a very good deep sleeper, and pretty much all the tight end picks were bad. Not everything was butterflies and rainbows last week. That's what's gonna happen with a sleeper show like this. With that being said, I was really pleased with the Rico Dowdle pick. Josh Dobbs was awesome, Devin Singletary finally came through for me, Jaden Reid scored over nineteen PPR points, Noah Brown was great, and even Quentin Johnson scored. So there were the every week misses in there, but there were also some really good hits. I'll take it. Let's keep things moving into week eleven. Now, as usual, let's kick things off with a bunch of players you might be able to start who are rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and will begin with Jordan Love. Love gets the Chargers this week, and as I noted on the fifty Transactions episode, the Chargers are the best matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Quarterbacks against LA have scored four point four more points per game than their season long averages. Love is surprisingly provided an Ocanna floor this season in fantasy. Despite his struggles, there's more potential for a ceiling game this week against LA. Russell Wilson, at the time of this recording, is also rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. The Broncos are still massive regression candidates when it comes to how they're scoring their touchdowns because on the season, they scored nineteen offensive touchdowns and just one of those touchdowns have come on the ground. With that being said, Russell Wilson himself has not been bad this year in fantasy. All things con said, when you adjust his performance for strength of opponent, he's around the QB eleven in points per game. Denver's had one of the toughest schedules to start the year. Now, Minnesota is not the easiest matchup in the world, but there aren't many options at quarterback this week, so I do think that Russ is fine. Now, moving on to running back, I'm gonna start with ty Chandler. He's likely going to see most of the backfield work from Minnesota this week as long as Alexander Madison's out. Denver's the best opponent by justin fantasy points allowed this season to running backs, and while a lot of that has to do with how they performed against Miami earlier this year, they're second to last and success rate allowed on the ground, that's more of a binary way of looking at how well they've stopped the run. They have not been good against the run. I'll have more on this backfield a little bit later, but Chandler makes for a potential RB two play this week. Taja Spears is still rostered in just thirty nine percent of leagues. I know his standalone value isn't amazing, but he's usable at times. He has upside if Derrick Henry gets hurt, so you should roster him if he's on waiver wire. But yeah, this is a sleeper show. This isn't a fifteen transaction show. I do think that there's some usability this week though Jacksonville, their opponent, ranks second in adjusted target share allowed to running backs, meaning teams are targeting their running backs at a higher rate than normal when they face the Jacks. Over Tajy Spears's last three games, all three with will Levis, He's seen target shairs of fourteen point eight percent, sixteen point seven percent, and thirteen point two percent. Those are all really good marks, so I think that Spears makes a lot of sense for people who are struggling at running back. This week, there's also Daryl Henderson. Kyron Williams is not back yet, we get another week of Darryl Henderson as sort of the one A in this Rams backfield. Henderson's been averaging a running back rush are per game of fifty four percent a target share per game of eight point one percent over his three games with LA. The Rams get the Seahawks this week. That's a team that's given up the third most adjusted fantasy points to running backs this year. It's hard to be totally in love with a play like this, but Henderson's fine. And then Lastly, a running back in this tier is Rico Dowdell. This could be yet another game for Dallas where they have a weird game script. They're ten and a half point favorites against the Panthers this week, and according to Fandeles Sportsbook, Carolina is the second best matchup for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. And as we saw last week, Dowbdell not only looks pretty good, but he saw season high forty three percent running back rushhare. You're really crossing your fingers for a touchdown with Rico Dowdle. Let's just be honest here, because he's not heavily involved as a receiver, but the matchup, the game situation, it's there for him this week. At wide receiver, I'm looking at both Arizona Cardinals wideouts in this range. Not Marquis Brown, He's rostered in way more than fifty percent of leagues, but Rondell Moore and Michael Wilson. Moore seems like the safer bet given his twenty five point eight percent target share last week, and as I mentioned on yesterday's ten Trends episode, according to fantasylife dot Com, Moore's average at the target last week was eight point one. He had a twenty three percent air yard share. That was by far his highest mark of the season, and it was the first game with Kyler Murray. To me, that's noteworthy. Now long term, I think Michael Wilson has more upside, He has more intrigue, and you can even look at him this week. Wilson saw more down the field targets than more last week, and he was really close to finding the end zone in a matchup against the Texans and what could be a relatively high scoring game. I think both of these wide receivers make sense as sleepers. The Buffalo Bills get the Jets this week. New York has been by far the best team against wide receivers and adjustin points allowed. It's a tough matchup. But Khalil Shakir is a little bit interesting because the Jets allow the fourth highest target shair to the slot across the entire league. Shakira has run seventy six percent of his routes from that area of the field. Now, he only hit an eight percent target share last week, but I'd expect that eight percent to rise to twelve to fifteen percent this week and If that happens, he has a chance to be flexworthy. Now it sounds like Justin Fields is going to back this week, and that's good news for Bears pass catchers. I know that wasn't the case early on in the season, but before he got hurt, Fields had games of three hundred and thirty five and two hundred and eighty two passing yards. Tyson Bagent hasn't come close to those totals this year. The Bears get the Lions. Detroit's allowing a top five pass rate this year. Teams are understandably opting to throw the ball against the Lions, not just because they're good against the run, but because teams often trail against Detroit. So with Justin Fields back, we could see better passing efficiency alongside more passes in this game. Specifically DJ Moore and Cole Kment they're gonna benefit, but Darnell Mooney should too. Mooney only hit a twelve and a half percent target shared last week, but his route participation has still been really strong. It's hovered the ninety percent range all season against the Lions secondary that's allowed the ninth most adjusted points to wide receivers. He's a high variant sleeper, and then I'm going back to Jayden Reid this week too. Now, I do want to say that over the last two weeks, Reid has seen his route participation drop. He's run a round on roughly forty seven percent of Green Bay's dropbacks over the last two games. That number was eighty nine percent the week prior to that. They're rotating him in and out more, which is really silly to me because he has by far the best yards per route run on that team this year. Anyway, we should hope that Green Bay rewards read for his play. Even if they don't, he can be efficient because he gets the Chargers this week and they're a top ten opponent for wide receivers. And then the last wide receiver in this group is Curtis Samuel. He returned to action last week and he didn't quite get back to his pre injury route participation, but he still saw fourteen percent target share. If we assume a slight increase in routes run here in Week eleven, he could definitely come through. Washington gets the Giants. New York ranks first in the NFL and slot yards allowed this year, and Samuel's played seventy three percent of his snaps from that area of the field this season. At tight end, I'm going back to something that I mentioned plenty on the show this year, and that's Luke Musgrave. The Chargers, as I've been saying, have been bad defensively this year. They rank in the bottom ten and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to every single position. Teams aren't necessarily targeting their tight ends at a higher rate against LA. Their adjusted target share allows pretty average, but the Chargers have allowed the fifth most adjusted points to the position. Musgrave has seen about a fifteen percent target share over his last five I think he's okay enough as a streamer. And then the other streamer in this tier is Chigakonquo over chicks last five games, he said a nineteen percent target share per game rate. That's pretty awesome. It's a pretty ordinary match up against Jacksonville this week, but finding tight ends in this range is just admittedly really tough. So a player seeing that kind of target share deserves a little bit of love. This next tier of players consists of guys who are rostered in zero to ten percent of Yahoo leaks, like I say each week, or digging deeper now, I don't have a quarterback streamer in this year. So let's just move on to running back and let's talk about Kanae wan Wu. And for the record, I believe that's the right pronunciation. I did a lot of research to say that name right. You're gonna hear that name on a lot of podcasts this week, probably, but I think that's the right pronunciation. Anyway, Wan was rostered in fewer than one percent of leagues. I do like Ty Chandler to step in for Alexander Madison this week and see a good number of touches, but Wan was probably gonna see some work himself. Chandler did out snap him thirteen to three after Madison's concussion this past week, so this is largely a projection, there's no doubt, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see wan Wu maybe finished with twenty, maybe thirty percent of Minnesota's backfield rushes. He's a big play guy too. He has a ton of speed, so maybe he'll do his best Keat and Mitchell impression and get it done on one play. Now, moving to wide receiver, I kind of don't mind Justin Watson this week, at least as it relates to deep sleepers, and he's also rostered in fewer than one percent of Yahoo leagus. The last time we saw the Chiefs, Watson led the wide receivers and routes run. He had an eighteen percent target share. And now the Chiefs are facing the Eagles, who have been a pass funnel. They're the top team against running backs and justin fantasy points allowed this year, they're the worst team against wide receivers, so don't sleep on Justin Watson. The other wide out in this tier is Jalen Geiton. Geiton returned to action in Week nine, where he ran a route on seventy four percent of LA's dropbacks. This past week, that route participation arose by eleven percentage points, his snap share jumped by twenty three percent. That resulted in the fifteen percent target share. So in a higher powered passing attack, that kind of usage can make any wide receiver relevant. And then a tight end from this group. Again, it's a rough week for tight end streamers, which is probably gonna be the case rest of season. But the tight end from this group is Tanner Hudson. Hudson's route participation really isn't anything special. It was just under forty percent last week, but his targets per route run rate over his last two it's been kind of awesome. He's I've seen twelve targets over his last two games, and the Bengals rewarded him last week with a slightly bigger role. Now it's not a great matchup this week, but maybe Hudson's able to find another five target game without t Higgins in the mix. As for the defensive streamers, things looked a lot easier and better on Monday before Waivers ran, So hopefully you're able to snag a team like Washington, maybe Detroit, or maybe Miami. They're now rostered in more than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. But one defense that might still work is Jacksonville. There's seven point home favorites against the Titans, and Tennessee has had a bottom ten pressure rate and sack rate allowed with Will Levis under center over the last three weeks, so I do think the Jags can work. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure you follow the Late Round Fantasy Football Instagram account at late Round FF and check out the Lateround Fantasy Football YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow