800: Week 2 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jae Zacher reson What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eight hundred of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Van Duel. Thanks for tuning in. Every week on The Sleeper Show, I like to quickly recap some of the things that went right and some of the things that went wrong during the previous week. I want to hold myself accountable and be transparent with how I'm feeling about my process and my picks, and honestly, week one is usually a really tough one for this show, and I definitely had some misses, but overall, I think I'll take it because on the plus side, I had Kyraen Williams as a sleeper. I called out Rashid Shaheed, Baker Mayfield, Sam Howe. They didn't sink you. Now, I did call out Van Jefferson, and I'm mad at my process for that. If I'm being totally honest, Poka Nakua was someone that I was high on entering the season. I should have just stuck with my talent evaluation. I even said on last week's show that Van Jefferson was just okay that he wasn't that great of a talent, but I got scared off of Nikua with it being his first ever NFL game, so I went with a veteran and that was a mistake. Talent usually wins out. I also missed on the rookies. Jaden Reid missed a little bit of time in that game against Chicago, and he did lead all Packers wideouts and receiving, but he didn't really come through this monster game. Marvin Mims was a big l I thought you'd get a lot more playing time than he did. I liked the usage for Jake Ferguson, but the game script didn't allow for a good performance. And the same could kind of be said for Luke Musgrave too, but Musgrave was okay for a tight end. Having some really big hits in Week one was good though, having Kyron Williams and Rashid Shahed. Like I said, I'll take it as the season goes on. I usually get more accurate on this show because we have a larger sample to work off of. So we're off to an okay start. Now let's talk Week two Sleepers. The first group of players that I talk about on This show consists of guys rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and in this tier it's Derek Carr, my favorite streaming option of the week. The Panthers allow one of the lowest average depth of targets in Week one, but that's likely an Atlanta Falcons problem, a Desmond Ritter problem. Carr and the Saints were on the opposite side of that spectrum. They were first in air archs per at tent they were just slightly ahead of Miami. The Panthers' secondary is going to be without J. C. Horn, which means New Orleans should have some advantageous matchups in this one with some strong wide receivers with a good tight end. I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see the Saints with an above average pass rate, even in a game that could see a nice positive game script for the offense. Mac Jones is also kind of interesting this week. The Patriots ranked third and overall pass rate in Week one, and there were seventh in neutral script pass rate. And you can say to yourself, yeah, well, they were trailing, they had to keep up pace, and that's true. They ran more plays than any other team last week. While trailing. With that being said, look at their opponent this week, they get Miami. We could see a very similar game flow for this New England offense. And it's good to know that Bill O'Brien isn't afraid to let mac Jones throw the ball, so don't totally sleep on mac Jones in these types of environments. Now moving on to running Mack, I've got some guys that were featured in the fifteen Transaction Show this week. Let's start with Joshua Kelly. At the time of this recording, I'm not sure of the status with Austin Eckler. He has an ankle injury. But in week one, Joshua Kelly saw just as many touches on the ground as Eckler did, and he was really effective. Fourteen of his sixteen attempts were successful runs. That's an absurd success rate. If Eckler doesn't go, obviously, Kelly's a great play. But even if Eckler does go, he may not be one hundred percent. And the Chargers are three point road favorites. If they hit a positive game script, which is entirely possible, it's even more reason to be bullish on Kelly at the moment. Right now, as I'm recording this, I'm expecting another double digit touch game for Kelly. Now, Kyron Williams is not in a good spot this week, but I have to call him out. Everything I talked about on the fifteen Transactions episode stays true here. In week two he played more than cam Akers in week one, he had twice as many snaps, and he's more than likely gonna be more gamescript proof than cam Akers will be, at least in the short term. Not only did Akers see a ton of work this past week when the game was out of reach, but Akers ran two routes. Kyron Williams ran twenty six routes. Now, this matchup should not be easy against San Francisco, but Williams has to be the preferred option right now in that backfield. Given week ones usage, Justice Hill is still available in about sixty four percent of Yahoo leagues, and while I do prefer Gus Edwards, you've got to keep an open mind for how this backfield's gonna be split. After JK. Dobbins went down last week, Edwards and Hill essentially saw the same workload, so it's not so obviously one sided here. Baltimore gets Cincinnati this week in a game with a forty six and a half point over under. That's not bad. I don't love Hill this week because I do think this is going to be a split backfield a committee. But you could do worse in a pinch. Another fifteen transactions guy that you could look at this week as Taj Spears. He outsnapped Dereck Henry in week one, and there's a shot, like I just talked about, that we see this Titans team in a negative game script against a good Chargers team this week that would lead to more Spears. He had seventeen routes run in week one, Derrick Henry had ten. Like a lot of running backs in the show each week, potential game script is gonna drive the recommendations. And then finally in this group is Zach Moss. Dion Jackson was putrid in week one. Look, I'm sure he's a good guy. He just had a really bad game. He had one of the worst performances imaginable. He fumbled the ball twice in his success rate was fifteen percent. Moss is still questionable to play this week, but he did practice on Wednesday. If he goes, i'd imagine that he'd get a decent workload after Jackson's performance in Week one, and they get the Texans, which is a plus matchup at wide receiver. This week, I'm gonna go back to Rashid Shahed as I said with Derek Carr, there's no j c. Horn, the matchup looks even better for these Saints wideouts. On top of that, Shahed has just been good. He's a good wide receiver. As I mentioned earlier this week, only Tyreek Hill has a better yards per route run rate since the start of last year than Rashid Shahed. One big play and he can pay off. I also think that Donovan People's jones is kind of intriguing this week. The Steelers usually have struggled against slock eyes, which is why I think there's a chance at Elijah Moore or David and Joku have a really big game. But DPJ still hit the slot on thirty two percent of his snaps in Week one, and he also tied for the team lead in routes run. Pittsburgh was pretty miserable against brock Perty last week, and now that defense is downm Hayward, they might struggle to generate their typical pressure, so I think that you could do worse as a desperation play. But if Jay Jones is out there, use Zay Jones at least over the guys that I'm talking about today. He's still out there in sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. After playing as Jacksonville's number two wide receiver in Week one, Jones hit a twenty two percent target share last week, giving him a twenty one and a half percent target share per game rate since the beginning of twenty twenty two. Jacksonville gets Kansas City this week in a game with the highest total on the slate. I think we could see a bounce back game for Christian Kirk, but Jay Jones is still a very safe option. I like a lot of tight ends this week. Jake Ferguson is one of them. He disappointed in Week one, but his peripherals were there. He saw twenty eight percent of Dallas' targets, giving him the second highest tight end target share of Week one, only behind Zach Ertz. He also tied for the league lead. He tied with Tyreek Hill and Jacoby Myers with three targets within the opponent's ten yard line. Those are the types of peripheral numbers that you love to see at tight end, and speaking of peripherals, Luke Musgrave has them. He ran the most routes for Green Bay in Week one. He saw four targets for fifty yards. That game had a chance to be even bigger for Musgrave two, but the fact that his stat line wasn't amazing means that you can still get him for super cheap, and he gets a beatable Atlanta defense that saw Hayden Hurst last week have a nice day. And then lastly, there's Hunter Henry in this group. Henry only hid an eleven percent target share, but his route participation was pretty high and his snapshare was solid two And like I said with Mac Jones, the Patriots could be forced into a pass heavy script to keep pace with his Dolphins offense. So Hunter Henry's another one who's in play the last group. The second group consists of players who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, who you might want to consider playing here in week two. Hopefully you don't have to rely on them, but you never know. I'm going to start with CJ. Stroud. Indianapolis has a beatable secondary. They faced the Jags in week one. Yes, but Trevor Lawrence ended up six and completion percentage above expected, and the Jags were one of three teams last week to score four offensive touchdowns. The Texans didn't look bad offensively in Week one, and Stroud himself barely played below expectation, which is pretty impressive for a rookie in Week one on the road against the Ravens. Most importantly, the Texans weren't afraid to throw. They had a high pass rate because they trailed in that game. But even when that game was within six points, they had fifteen pass attempts to five rush attempts. Really, this recommendation just comes down to the fact that Stroud looked okay in Week one, and this is an ok matchup in Week two. That makes him a reasonable enough QB two option. Now I have one running back in this group, and it's Jerome Ford. Ford did not have a ton of success in Week one, but he played as the number two back in that offense and he had a forty five and a half percent running back rush share. Now, he got a a lot of work at the end of that game against Cincinnati, nine of his fifteen rushes were in the fourth quarter, but he was on the field before that. He got snaps in the first quarter. As I said earlier, the Steelers are without Cam Hayward and they're also missing Deontay Johnson. That game has been moving in the wrong direction for Pittsburgh according to Fandels Sportsbook, so if game flow goes Cleveland's way, Ford would be someone who could benefit. There really aren't a ton of sub ten percent running backs at the moment either, So I'm into CJ. Strouderor I at least think that he's interesting, And I think that Robert Woods makes a safe play in this range after he saw twenty four percent target share in Week one. If you want to go kind of boring and go that route, I won't stop you. But don't sleep on Tank Dell. He's still roster in just four percent of Yahoo leagues, and while he only ran twenty one routes in Week one compared to thirty seven from Noah Brown. Noah Brown, who played sixty two percent of his snaps from the slot, is now on IR which means Tank Dell could become the slot guy for them, and we saw him flash in the preseason. He's an insanely shifty wide receiver who can create separation. Keep an eye on John Metchi too, but I think that Tank Dell would end up taking that slot role and it wouldn't be shocking if he ends up carving out a role and what was a surprisingly pass heavy offense in Week one. Now without Deontay Johnson, like I said earlier, we're gonna see Alan Robinson be featured more in two wide receiver sets for Pittsburgh. He's sort of like the Robert Woods of the Steelers, where he's this kind of boring play and it's not that fun using him, but he'll probably walk into like six or so targets, so you can go with him from this sub ten percent group. But I'm also intrigued by the Steelers quick shifty receiver and that's Calvin Austen. This really is kind of a similar situation as Houston. Austin was hurt last year as a rookie, but he ended up seeing six targets and caught all six of them for thirty seven yards in Week one. This is all while running about sixty percent of the routes as George Pickens and Alan Robbins, but with Deontay Johnson out, any eleven personnel grouping will probably feature Calvin Austen, and I'd imagine that he'd find the field at times in two wide sets. The Steelers need his kind of playmaking ability in their offense, so it wouldn't be surprising if they forced him a handful of targets of the line of scrimmage to get some cheap PPR production. And then, lastly, at tight end this tier Durham smythe I talked about him on the ten Trends episode yesterday, but he ended Week one with the most routes in the Dolphins, more than Tyreek Hill, more than Jalen Waddle. If that continues within this offense, he's got a real shot to post higher end tight end two numbers. We'll have to see if that happens, though. Now quickly at defense this week, the Giants against Arizona. That's an obvious one. They're four and a half point favorites against essentially a third string quarterback in a game with a sub forty point over under. There's also Cleveland against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh being without Deontay Johnson really not looking good offensively in Week one. That makes Cleveland a good play in Cleveland also look good defensively in Week one two. I don't mind Tampa Bay against Chicago because Justin Field's tendency to take sacks. And then don't sleep on Detroit either. Now, this one has a lot of downside to it because of what we saw in that Seattle Detroit game last year was a shootout, but the Seahawks offensive line looked horrible in Week one and Detroit did a pretty good job against the Chiefs offense. Maybe we see more sacks and more turnovers than expected, but I would play the other three defenses over the Lions. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, you know, follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Also remember to follow the Late Round Fantasy Football Instagram account at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone. I've got the Mailbag episode dropping tomorrow morning, and then a little bit after that you got the Late Round Perspectives episode. I'll talk to you then two