356: Mailbag 3/13/20

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ zachares In, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com in this episode three hundred and fifty six of the Late Round podcast and many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. In the grand scheme of things, I know that fantasy football is meaningless. I know there are more important things in the world. But I also know that it's a hobby for all of us. It's an escape. It's a way for us to connect with friends and family and just to have fun and forget about what's going on outside of our little bubble. I intend to keep it that way. This show is going to go on as normal. But do know that I'm not ignoring what's going on around me. My priority is my family, it's my friends, and it's the health of everyone that I'm around. So even though you will be hearing my annoying voice talking about fantasy football over the coming weeks just as often as you otherwise would, it's not because I'm ignorant to what's happening around me. It's that I want this to be a healthy escape for all of you, and I want us to find some happiness during a tough time. So distance yourself physically from others as much as you can, wash your hands, and love on your family and use this little fifteen minute show as a way to escape this first mailbag question this week is from at Sack Attack underscore FF. Do you think Nick Chubb should be ranked as the number five running back? I currently have him there and I am curious where you have him. So I don't have rankings right now, but there are some red flags with Nick Chubb. Or I should say there's a red flag and it's Kareem Hunt. It's hard to make the argument that Kareem Hunt didn't affect Nick Chubb last year. He did in kind of a dramatic way. With Kareem Hunt. Chubb averaged a target share per game of about six point eight percent. Without Hunt, who's a pass catching back, that number was eleven point eight percent. Chub averaged eighteen point nine PPR points per game with Kareem Hunt. It was thirteen points per game with Kareem Hunt. We're working with a small sample here, but those are dramatic differences. So if Kareem Hunt is back in Cleveland, which seems like a very real possibility that I don't see how Chubb can be locked into that type of spot in rankings. Generally speaking, guys, if there's a split backfield, it's never a good thing for the running back who's seeing less volume. You can argue better efficiency, though that's even a weak argument, but we need volume above all else. Kareem Hunt really hurts Nick Chubb. This next one's an email. It says, hey, JJ, I'm in a twelve team PPR Dynasty league and I have picks one, two and one oh three in my rookie draft. I'm rostering Chubb, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs at running back, but mostly unproven players at wide receiver like Nikhil Harry, Mikil Hardman, Miles Boyke, and Dante Pettis, et cetera. In a situation like this, would you think about the possibility of drafting both Judy and CD Lamb. I know this is probably tough to answer without knowing where those players end up, So in answering this, I don't think that we need to know the landing spots for those wide receivers. This is more philosophical to me. Your goal should be about acquiring value. I think Dynasty managers are sometimes too focused on roster construction to the point where they become suboptimal. And by suboptimal, and I use that word all the time on the show, but being suboptimal and drafting is essentially taking a Tier two player when there are Tier one players available. So hypothetically, depending on landing spot for one of these running backs, we may have Jonathan Taylor and DeAndre Swift as Tier one rookies after the draft. Because you need a wide receiver, you may pass on those guys in favor of Judy or Lamb who are in Tier two. And in a format like Dynasty, that can get you into trouble because you're attached to that decision for a long period of time, not just one year. But the key here is that you can just trade. Just because you're set at running back doesn't mean that you can't squeeze value out of the market. What if you found someone who really likes Josh Jacobs and then you were able to get a really good young wide out for him, and then you used one of your picks on a player like Jonathan Taylor that not only allows you to extract Tier one value. Again, this is a hypothetical, but you all of a sudden have a core piece at wide receiver that can help you win right now. That's how I approach situations like this one. Don't feel married to your dynasty team. This next question is also an email. It says, hey, JJ, here's a Dynasty league off season question. How do you value free agents whose future team is still uncertain? Do you weigh the probability of a good landing spot the most, since opportunity is key to production, or if that's too difficult to predict, is raw talent more important since that should theoretically lead to opportunity. For example, if you're in a super flex league, this year's quarterback market is full of guys who could end up anywhere due to trades or free agency, Ryan Tannehill, Jamis Winston, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Foles, etc. How do you go about evaluating these players at any position to figure out who to commit to? And then the email says dot dot dot pause dot dot. Thanks for reading my email, Anthony from Boston. So talent matters in different ways with different positions. I care a lot less about running back talent than I do wide receiver talent. For example, it's notthing I think that running back talent is irrelevant for the running back to see more work. But it's easier for an average running back in fantasy football to score more points than an average wide receiver since situation objectively matters more at running back. So that's the first thing to keep in mind. But the additional layer to that is if a running back is switching teams, chances are he's not getting a huge investment from that new team. That new team isn't going to feel locked into that running back. And I'm not talking about like the Le'Veon Bell types of players who end up hitting free agency every once in a while. I'm talking about like Devonte Freeman or Lamar Miller. Chances are teams aren't going to invest heavily in those types of players. Meanwhile, the average wide receiver equivalent to those guys is someone like I don't know, Robbie Anderson. Maybe that's a bad example, but it's just a rough example. Wide receiver last longer in the league and they get paid more. And if the wide receiver is good, which I do think Robby Anderson is good, then I'll be more inclined to buy into a free agent wide receiver like that than a random free agent running back. I mean, generally speaking, I'm not actively buying free agent running backs. The market really isn't either, but they're more throw in players in trades usually than anything else. And with quarterbacks, depending on the guy, you just have to look at things logically. If a team is letting a player walk in free agency, let alone a quarterback, chances are that player isn't some superstar. We can point to what Ryan Tannehill did last year and say that's not true. But we see quarterbacks who once started in the league hit free agency all the time and not do anything. They become backups. This year admittedly is different because the players like Brady and Rivers and even Winston is really interesting because he's been way more effective in fantasy than in real football. But always think from the perspective of why isn't this player's current team trying to hold on to him? And if there's no real good answer, whether it's that player's demands off the field stuff, the salary cap situation for that team. If there's just no good answer, then he may not be very good. This last question says hi JJ. As dynasty rookie drafts draw closer, draft strategy will come into greater focus. Without knowing landing spots, it's tough to know where each tier will be, but many people will be looking to trade up or down based on this. What is your day to tell you about trading picks to move up in the draft. I have a lot of late first early second draft capital, and I'm wondering if it makes more sense to take a few shots on players in that range, or if it would be better to consolidate to move up. Thanks love the show. So instead of just saying early first round picks are good and then there's a big drop off, and then there's another big drop off in the middle of the second round and going down that route, I'm gonna do what I usually do on the show, and I'm just gonna talk through thought process entering a draft. We have tiers. I'll have my rankings and tiers before the draft, and I'll talk about them on the show, but we'll have a set of tiers. Ideally, at least we're setting those tiers with imperfect information because the draft hasn't happened yet. So maybe your tier one has two players, your Tier two has another two, and your Tier three has three and so on. What you shouldn't overrate is your ability to nail down those tiers pre draft. What I mean by that is, and this is especially true at the running back position, but if you see a big five running backs this year, if you see five in the top tier, you should absolutely not assume that those five running backs are gonna come out of the draft unscathed. There's a very real possibility that someone like JK. Dobbins lands in a place where there's somewhat of an established running back, Like, what if the Lions really do decide to take one of those players, all of a sudden, you've got a fantasy football nightmare between Kerrie on Johnson and that other running back. Now, at the same time, really good situations are going to emerge for players who are ranked lower. Maybe you hate Zach Moss, but he gets drafted by Kansas City, you're gonna be forced to move him up. But chances are you're not gonna move him up into an elite tier that would sort of make up for a bad landing spot for JK. Dobbins. This is all not real, and this is not me predicting where these players are gonna get drafted. I'm just saying that you shouldn't overstate your ability to no tiers before a draft actually happens. What I will say, though, is that you should be able to have a better idea at the wide receiver position, because, like I said earlier, talent wins out most of the time. I've mentioned this before, but I let landing spot dictate my rankings too much at wide receiver last year, and it was a dumb move. It didn't really impact my drafts, but it was still stupid. So from that perspective, you can generally plan out drafts and know where players are going to be drafted, and so you can kind of plan accordingly, but you still have to be reactive and each draft is going to be different. The one oh one in one year doesn't have the same value as the one oh one in the next. When Saquon Barkley came out, that one oh one was way more valuable than the one oh one last year. I can't tell you exactly what to do if you have a ton of late first or early second round picks because I don't know your team or your league, but what I can say is to not overstate your running back tiers. But do know that I personally love the kind of players that you're bound to get in that range this year. I love the late first in the early second, so you're not in a bad spot at all. The sext question is from at Jcap one K nine to eighty six. Can you briefly compare Tyler Johnson and Brian Edwards both have excellent college profiles but did not test at the combine. Assuming similar draft capital, I believe Edwards is projected to go much higher. Is there one prospect that is clearly superior to the other? Thanks? My model likes Tyler Johnson more, but if Edwards goes well ahead of him in the draft, then it'll lean Edwards. I think. Last week I use an example of Tyler Johnson going two hundredth overall. If that happened, he'd be like an eightieth percentile player in my model. For Brian Edwards to hit that percentile, he'd have to go like one hundred and twenty fifth overall. So I'd say that both players are liked in my model. The thing is, it seems like NFL teams like these guys a lot less than fantasy managers do. I say this all the time, but the fantasy community is going to rate the productive wide receivers a lot higher than what we're going to see from scouts in the NFL draft, So guys like Tyler Johnson and Brian Edwards already had pretty high eightps before the combine and everything started. That's why it's such a weird place for me. Personally. I like both players, but based on the market, I may end up not drafting these players at a high rate because of what the market is saying. But objectively, both players look pretty good and my model does prefer Tyler Johnson right now pre draft. This last question says, Hey, JJ, I'm new to the podcast, so forgive me if this has been covered and point me in the direction of that episode. It has not been covered, which is why I'm talking about it on today's show. You talk a lot about the impact of draft capital as a predictor of fantasy success, but does the specific team matter. For example, I'm an Eagles fan, and historically they are bad at drafting fantasy relevant wide receivers. So would the same player taken at the same draft slot by the Eagles, for which is a different team be ranked lower by your model? Should he be? And what does all that mean for the outlook of JJR, SEGA, Whiteside. Hopefully this makes it onto the Mailbag shows, but even if not, thanks for the great content. Thanks Shannon. I think one thing that people tend to get wrong when they think about the draft this way is at number one, the draft is largely random, meaning teams don't really beat the draft over long periods of time. There are teams who are smarter with the draft and the positions that they pick, but there have been studies done to show that one team is insignificantly better at the draft than another. Number two, though watch out for small sample sizes. You mentioned JJR, SGA, Whiteside, and the Eagles. Now, the Eagles have been historically bad at drafting fantasy relevant wide receivers, but they've also only taken eight receivers in the draft over the last ten drafts, and three of them were selected in the first two rounds. They haven't been significant hits, but I don't think that we can say the Eagles can't draft fantasy relevant wide receivers. Because of that sole fact, landing spot matters, but more so when you're looking at coaching and team person No, I wouldn't get caught up in how a team drafted in twenty twelve. Evaluating the player himself makes a lot more sense. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, enjoy your weekend