668: Mailbag 9/2/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode six hundred and sixty eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the mailbag questions this week, I want to remind you about the Established the Run Draft kid. Establish the Run has rankings for any fantasy format you might be playing in, and they continuously update as news breaks. You also get access to Evan Silva's top one fifty and along with it a change log that you can read to see why players are moving up and down his draft board. It's a great way to make sure you understand why players are ranked where they are, because the goal is to help you make better decisions, not tell you who to pick. If you're into best ball drafting, their strategy, rankings and insight can help you out a ton with roster construction. Estapa strong gives you a different perspective on fantasy football than I do. I think the combination of my work in THEIRS can help make this draft season a successful one. So head over to Established Run dot com and purchase their draft kit. When you do, use promo code JJ for a ten percent discount. That's promo code jay. J. I also wanted to remind you to check out FanDuel Faceoff. Fandel Faceoff is where you compete in quick, fun games against other real people for real cash. It has all sorts of games that you're familiar with, like a home run, derby, Wheel of Fortune, puzzle and strategy games with more on the way. Contests are action packed and last between two to five minutes, so you can play on your couch, waiting in line during a commercial break, wherever, and all on your schedule. Plus, you can practice for free anytime, whether it be head to head, multiplayer or larger tournaments. FanDuel Faceoff has something for you. Plus, in most contests, you'll be matched against other players with similar skill levels. You're never totally overmatched. Face Off is also tied to your FanDuel accountant wallet, so you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app. Visit fandel dot com, slash face Off, or download the Fandle Faceoff app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game. Agent location restrictions apply void where prohibited. Seefandle dot Com slash faceoff hyphen terms for terms and conditions. The first question this week is from Twitter. It's from at manwidth Takes. It says, why do you think the fantasy community largely turned a blind eye to Lance's major red flag, which is Jimmy G being on the roster. Kyle Shanahan doesn't seem to be in love with him, and most reports throughout the summer have not been positive. Do you have a process for eliminating biases? So this was easily the top question this week, and it wasn't closed. So let's dig in. Jimmy Garoppolo is sticking around as a forty nine er for now, but I want to answer this question of why do you think the fantasy community largely turned a blind eye to Lance's major red flag of Jimmy Garoppolo being on the roster? I mean, for one, I don't think Jimmy G staying in San Francisco was the likely outcome here. They were openly trying to trade him, They openly talked about it. He even practiced differently than the rest of the team. To say that the fantasy community turned a blind eye to this major red flag is not fair at all. I think the majority of people saw this. The forty nine ers included as a situation where Garoppolo would be dealt. And I don't really understand this narrative of Kyle Shanahan not being in love with Trey Lance. We have no idea if that's the case or not. And I also wouldn't say that most reports throughout the summer haven't been positive. I mean, what would a positive report do here? No offense to the reporting coming out in San Francisco, but remember last year, Remember when Elijah Mitchell out of nowhere played ahead of Trey Sermon. There weren't reports of that really happening throughout the off season. And I really don't say that as a dig I just say it as a reminder that reports are not everything. The forty nine ers have a lot invested in Trey Lance. They've handed this team off to him. Kyle Shanahan has openly said that at press conferences. I know we don't want to believe coaches, but when it's that overt, you kind of have to believe him. So Lance is gonna get his shot, and when he starts, he's gonna be fantasy relevant because of his rushing, but the steiling could be completely unlocked if things come together through the air for him. And I think of almost any situation in football, I'd be most bullish about a quarterback on the forty nine ers because of the system and because of their weapons. Garoppolo himself was second in the NFL in yards per tenth last year and he just signed a deal to be a backup. What does that tell you. Maybe the injury is the reason he couldn't get dealt, but if he was good enough, he would have been dealt. This system is that good. And maybe I'm just being naive here, that's totally possible. Maybe the forty nine ers wanted to do this all along. I just don't see that being the case, given what they've been saying, how they've been treating him, and the investment that they made in Trey Lance. It's insurance for Lance, yes, but I don't buy this idea that the instant Lance does something wrong. Jimmy Garoppolo is going in because they've got a lot riding on Trey Lance. My hope here is that Lance's ADP does indeed fall this weekend, that when you're drafting this weekend. You can get Trey Lance for even cheaper, because he's the right kind of bet to make a quarterback in fantasy football. The sass question is from Patreon. It's from Nick. It says, hey, JJ, not trying to play down a terrible situation here with Brian Robinson, but how would you be approaching the Washington backfield now that he's out for a good while and Patterson got cut Now. I don't want to sound like being a fantasy football analyst is the hardest job in the world, because it's not. There are far more important jobs out there. Trust me, I'm aware of how unimportant I am to the world. All I do is make you more unproductive at work. But the hardest part of my job is having to talk about fantasy football after these tough off the field situations happen. Fortunately, Brian Robinson's going to be okay, but I hope people know that I don't think fantasy football is more important than his health. With that being said, this is my job, so I've got to analyze the impact of Brian Robinson being out. I don't think the Jarrett Patterson release necessarily tells us anything about Antonio Gibson. I think it might signal that Robinson's outlook is more favorable than initially thought. With Gibson, I'm just afraid. I did take him in a draft the other night at the eight to nine Turn, which was the first time that I've drafted him and managed leagues this month. But when a team is doing things against the player, signing JD. McKissick, drafting Brian Robinson talking about a split backfield, it doesn't make me feel confident in that player. Even when his workload situation improves, and in situations like this, a player's cost doesn't remain the same. Gibson's price tag is rising. We also know with Gibson that he has a cap ceiling with JD. McKissick still there. Gibson had just two games last year with McKissick active where he saw a double digit percentage target share. That's an eighteen percent rate Without McKissick. That rate jumped to sixty percent. Three of five games without McKissick down the stretch last season, Gibson had three top ten performances in five games. He had one top ten performance in PPR formats when McKissick was healthy. I mean, let's not pretend that Brian Robinson was the only running back holding Antonio Gibson back. It's just that Robinson made him riskier because Robinson himself has a three down skill set and isn't a bad player. That's what I alluded to on Monday's episode. I should say though, that part of the reason that Gibson is a little bit more attractive is his early season schedule. If you go with like a hero RB approach, Gibson's a little bit easier to draft because the Commanders get the Jags and the Lions to start the year, so Gibson will have an opportunity to not be game scripted out. He could actually be pretty productive for you. So if you need that immediate production, given your bild, I don't think Gibson is that bad of a choice. But from a season long perspective, yes, I'm still worried. We still have to be concerned about JD. Mckissick's presence in this offense, and then let's cross our fingers that Robinson his back sooner rather than later. This has questions from Twitter. It's for my friend at Dave Klugie. It says, with the depth of veteran quarterbacks on explosive offenses Rogers, Stafford Cousins, car and high upside young quarterbacks Lance Field's Lawrence Wilson. Is this a year where it might make sense to wait on and stream quarterbacks? So I wrote about this in detail in the Late Round Draft guid, which is still available over on lateround dot com, and I've really talked about this on the show over the last couple of years. But the reason people are drafting quarterbacks a little bit earlier than they did like five years ago isn't necessarily because these high end quarterbacks are giving you some huge edge in points per game differential. It's more so that they're becoming more predictable that we know who the top quarterbacks are going to be. Just to give you an example of what I mean in the draft guide, I looked at top eighteen quarterbacks by ADP by year, and then I compared and found the correlation between top eighteen quarterbacks by ADP and points per game or how many points per game they scored. So we've got how we viewed quarterbacks entering the season versus how they actually performed. I looked at this since twenty eleven and there were some seasons like twenty fifteen and twenty eighteen where the correlation was literally zero, where QBS ten through eighteen scored just as well as QB's one through nine. But the last two years we've seen by far the highest correlations between eightyp and points per game, and it's because of rushing. It's because there are more dual threat quarterbacks who can also get it done through the air, and the market is finally recognizing that rushing numbers are stickier year over year than passing numbers are. If I were to ask you who's gonna throw more touchdowns this year, Kyler Murray or Tom Brady, most of you would say Tom Brady. But would you be that surprised if Brady has worse passing number than Kyler Murray? Now, same question, but for rushing, would you be surprised if Brady had better rushing numbers than Kyler Murray? That question and the answer to that question seems a lot more lopsided. What that means is that streaming is more difficult than it used to be because finding replacement level players at quarterback is now a little bit tougher. This is why, over the last two seasons, my streaming Frankenstein that I put together with my co host Denny Carter on Living the Stream. It's been way worse than other seasons. If you want an easier bet to make, just bet on quarterbacks we get drafted in the QB nine to QB twelve range, because realistically, I do think the predictability at quarterback over the last two years has almost been too good. It's been too predictable. When we get more doual threat guys into the quarterback poll or when we get more elite pocket passers, that correlation is bound to drop. But the QB nine to the QB twelve range has been really, really good over the last couple of years, and it has some good quarterbacks in it this year, and you're not having to weigh the possibility of this being the year where that predictability really does drop, because when that happens, the higher end quarterbacks that you draft, they're going to become a lot less valuable. Now, I don't think going with a late round quarterback strategy is the worst idea in the world or anything. I like justin fields. I don't mind Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr. I just don't think that you should feel good about streaming. It's a difficult thing to do in today's environment because of these dual threat quarterbacks. You should be expecting a QB ten to QB twelven points per game if you do go the streaming route. But hey, maybe this will be the year that things become less predictable at the position. This a's question from Patreon. It's from Jackson. With the news of Marlon Mack being cut, he's now in the practice squad. How much does that change your outlook on Damian Pierce. I'm wondering if his adp will start to get too costly. Feels like not enough is being made to the fact that the Texans offensive situation isn't very good and that Burkehead will likely have some role within this offense. Yeah, that's the fear I talked about Damian Pierce on Monday's episode, so I don't want to just say all that stuff once again. I think he's a good prospect. I think he's an intriguing running back for twenty twenty two, and I do think he's capable of being that passing down back for the Texans. The question is does Houston because at the end of the day. These are coaching decisions, and if they like Rex Burkhead in that role, then Damian Pierce's upside is really really capped because we're then talking about an early down back on a bad team. That's the exact type of player that you should be fading in fantasy football. A negative game script has the potential to just wipe them out. I was in a big money draft the other night and Damian Pierce went ahead of Breise Hall, and I cannot get behind that. I've had him as a value throughout the offseason. I like Damian Pierce, but the price is climbing a ton in sharper leagues. Maybe a home league would look a little bit different, but I'd have a hard time taking him over someone like AJ Dillon, for example. I think from here on out we're bound to see wildly different costs with Damian Pierce. I think you're looking at this the right way though. It's absolutely possible that he takes on a three down roll at some point this season, and I actually do think he's capable. It's just a question of whether or not the Texans are willing to give it to him. This be'st question is from twitters from at dry, Guy Rye says, can we get the usual early season streamers for defense and tight end? So I don't think tight end streaming is really a thing at the start of the season. Hopefully you walked away with a decent one in your draft, and if you didn't, you can be reactive to some early season usage with defense, though one that I've targeted is San Francisco. They get the Bears and the Seahawks to start the season. The Broncos are another team with a good schedule to start the year, with the Seahawks and Texans in weeks one and two. Washington, as I alluded to earlier with Antonio Gibson, they get Jacksonville in Detroit. The Colts get Houston and Jacksonville and Cleveland, even though they might not be in super positive game scripts with Jacoby Brissett FA Carolina, the Jets, the Steelers, and the Falcons weeks one through four, and if you want to use one of those defenses with two easy games to start the year, the Chargers then have good Weeks three and four matchups against Jacksonville and Houston. So those are some defenses to look for in your waiver wire. Right away. The last question this week is from at LEPs underscore Tea. It says, what is your advice for handcuffs? I currently have Dalvin Cook and with his injury history, I also drafted Alexander Madison late. Do you think it's smart to hold a handcuff early in the season or would you rather pick him up in the middle or later in the season, not at all, or hold a different player's handcuff. So I've done research on breakout running backs, and I've done research specifically on handcuffing running backs, and that research points to handcuffing being a bad idea for a handful of reasons. Number One, injuries don't usually occur right away for running backs. So often you're just holding onto that handcuff for a really, really long time, and they're typically the first player to get cut from your roster because it's so freaking annoying having that asset on your bench doing absolutely nothing. Number Two, we often don't even get the handcuff right. I think Alexander Madison is a high end handcuff, yes, but what if this new coaching staff likes ty Chandler more than we think. Number Three, even when we do get the handcuff right. He's not an automatic producer. I did a study on handcuffs like four years ago, and I basically found that when we got handcuffs right and they entered the game and played, they were still like RB three's in fantasy football. Now, let me put a little caveat on all this. Your league structure matters entirely. If you're in a deep league where a lot of players are rostered, it's fine to go after a player who's a traditional handcuff. And honestly, the thing that annoys me most about this discussion is that the definition of handcuff is wildly different across the fantasy football world. Like, to me, Tony Pollard is absolutely not a handcuff. He has standalone value. Handcuffs to me are players who are backing up elite running backs in fantasy football who have no value unless that elite running back gets hurt. So AJ Dillon not a handcuff. My stance has also been then if you're going to handcuff a running back, you should handcuff a running back on a different team unless your current team is absolutely stacked and you need to play it safe. Like let's say that you don't have Dalvin Cook, but you do have Alexander Madison. If Cook gets hurt, then you have another usable running back on your roster. It's a high ceiling play rather than a high floor play. And yes, I understand that if you have Dalvin Cook and not Alexander Madison, then you get really screwed if Dalvin Cook gets hurt. That's why I'm saying it's a high ceiling play. And in fantasy football, I think chasing ceiling is what you really should be doing. And I want to add that I don't believe handcuffing is bad all season long. I talk about handcuffs in my later season fifteen Transactions articles all the time. I just prefer not to draft them and to instead go after running backs who have a chance to be productive for my roster right away without an injury. At the start of the season, so much is up in the air, So I like throwing darts at players without studs in their backfield since those players have a shot to be usable without an injury. I know this is going to be shocking, but I don't think handcuffing is a black and white issue. In most cases. I am against it, but there are some cases where I'm for it. One thing I do know, though, is that we think we know a lot more than we actually do. When entering a season. The players we think are handcuffs end up not being handcuffs, so definitely keep that in mind. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching Forward pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found and its follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. The ind season content is starting next week. Make sure you check out Lateround dot com. Join the Patreon If you have a draft this weekend or next week, by the draft guide. It should help you out. Join the newsletter for free as well. I appreciate all of you guys listening. Thank you so much. Enjoy the long weekend. I'll be back on Tuesday.