Mailbag: Acuña Update, Austin Riley Breakdown, and More

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Hammer Territory Podcast. This is episode two zero two. I am your host, Brad Rowland, coming to you on a Wednesday evening, and I'm joined as I always am, by Scott Coleman. Scott recording about two hours earlier than expected because the Braves decided to get rained out today in the Nation's capital. That never happens at DC, does it?

00:00:40
Speaker 2: Never? Brad, Never, life, death taxes, braves getting rain delayed or rained out. You could tell me that Washington, d C. Was the rainiest place on planet Earth, and I think I'd probably believe you. It's funny. Earlier today, I tweeted, Hey, the weather forecast tonight kind of sucks. We'll see if they play, And somebody who lives in the DC area was like, every single time the Braves come up here, there's terrible weather during the series, but the series is always book ended by like perfect weather days, so it's not just like anecdotal. It feels like every single time these guys go play the Nationals, it is bad weather. But you know, hey, hopefully when these two teams play again come September, the Braves are in a better spot and maybe the Nationals are just kind of going through the motions and kind of giving up on the season.

00:01:32
Speaker 1: Let us hope and you just said that this game has been rescheduled as part of a split doubleheader on September sixteenth, a long time from now. One of those times we'll look at the schedule, we'll say, why do they play a doubleheader today? Then we'll remember that back in May there was a right now in the middle of the series. For those asking the fact somebody did ask that today was actually a Brace fan that lives up there wanting to go to the game on Thursday, Like, hey, they're gonna plan on Thursday. As of Wednesday night, it looks a little better than it did today. I don't know if that's gonna get anything. It would not shock me if there was a delay or issues on Thursday, but as of now, let's hope they play baseball because you don't want back to back rain now, So just schedule wise, just odd. They would have been off for three out of four days to situation.

00:02:14
Speaker 2: And a double header in September is not exactly ideal. God, we saw the disaster that was last year's September with the rainout against the Mets and everything. Hopefully it's not going to become a theme. I think the Braves have been relatively clean on postponements this year. I think this was maybe just the second time a game has been rained out, which is nice considering we're two months in and regionally the Braves are always playing in rainy areas, not a lot of domes, all of those things. But hey, the day off, the team just played a lot of games, and maybe they'll use it to kind of recharge the batteries even more and hopefully when on Thursday night at least split the shortened series.

00:02:54
Speaker 1: Yes, one more with the Nationals coming up on Thursday. Where to take the opportunity on this particular episode to answer some mailbag questions because it's a rain now, it's a good opportunity we have. We have a stockpile, we asked for some more and people are gracious enough to send those in. We don't always do mailbag calls, but we're always open for bud back questions. If you follow us on social media, send it to us. We might file it away or answer it in real time or whatever, so keep them coming. We definitely appreciate all the questions. We should also say on the top of the show we are part of Folid territory. As a network, we are Cold Hammer Territory. We cover the Braves all year round. And we had a show from the two of us on Sunday evening for about an hour covering a lot of different things, and then our colleagues Shna Steven recorded on Tuesday evening after a frustrating loss. To be fair, unless you really want to talk about that game, what's just not because they covered it in detail, I recommend people listening to that show. But it was also one of those nights that we would like to forget.

00:03:44
Speaker 2: Probably, Yeah, weird baseball game on Tuesday. Seven runs in the first two innings and then I mean for both sides. Basically nothing else doing other than an insurance run late for Washington. But yeah, Tuesday Night's game will not be one that we look back on in six months ago. You remember that night in Washington, d C. That was that was pretty forgettable. Last night.

00:04:05
Speaker 1: One thing we didk good questions about not really a full and mailback question, but was about Strider. Basically I know that Steven and Shaan talked about it, but we got even more. We put the call today. Don't if they didn't show yesterday or not, But did you have any reaction to Stratder not looking the sharpest in his first outing and basically a month Like, what was your reaction to that?

00:04:23
Speaker 2: So I didn't think that Spencer looked particularly sharp, but it was also I think what was more than fair to expect for a pitcher who I mean, let's be real. I mean, this is basically I don't want to say ground zero for Spencer, but second start of the year a hamstring injury is not exactly something. It's not like he just rolled an ankle and it was I mean, he missed a month with a hamstring strain. And Spencer's not a big guy. I mean, he uses every single ounce of his lower body strength to deliver the ball the way he does. Velocity A little bit of a concern, I know, that was all everybody was talking about last night. But again, and only second start of the year, first start in a month. He missed all of last season. So really, the last time Spencer Strider was throwing competitive pitches regularly was September and October of twenty twenty three. That's a long time ago. Brad nineteen months ago, So I think my take on Strider, let's see how the next month goes. If Spencer's velocity is still in the low mid nineties at the end of games a month from now, then I think it's time to really kind of panic. But I know Spencer didn't have Tommy John surgery, but he had a similar procedure. This is generally pretty common for pitchers coming back, and I think it's just a matter of building up strength and really just having confidence in his elbow and his hamstring to feel like he can really let loose out there.

00:05:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he did sit. He actually ended up averaging ninety five with the fastball, which is below where you want him to be for sure. But if you just followed the discourse, it was like he was throwing eighty nine and he wasn't he was throw ninety five. It's like that's a he can live there. There's the debates that you had, and we want to see more data about like what that looks like long term. I am not particularly alarmed, as you are not either. You know, the choice went went because he struggled, and because they lost the game. People were loudly wondering should he have gone how to rehab start. You know, should write over thrown in the game whatever. I don't really got. I thought it was a little bit overblown. Again, like he wasn't a disaster. They were in the game, they were competitive in the game, they didn't lose ten nothing. He wasn't perfect. But I want to see three starts of Strider before I really think about much of anything. No, look, if his next turn is a disaster, you know, obviously you get a little bit more concerned and incorrendally so. But for now, it's just me like kind of shrugging more than anything, because of the talent level that he has and also the competitor he is. And Hope Shawtz talked about it a lot, like his quotes after the game, he knows man like, this is a guy who's a he's a pretty buttoned up fellow. He's not gonna be sugarcoating anything. And he wasn't happy, and neither was the team. I'm sure, but it's just went out.

00:06:59
Speaker 2: Nobody on the planet want Spencer Strider to be more successful than Spencer Strider does. He is a competitor in the greatest of ways. I think, honestly, I like that. I thought his candid comments after the game about hey, I kind of sucked tonight and we sent down Bryce Elder, who had been throwing the ball, well for me to make a start and I need to be better. And if folks miss those, I know the video clips were circulating of Spencer's comments worth watching. But yeah, give me. Let's see mid June. If we're at mid June and he's still struggling, then I think we can have a different conversation. But give it a couple more starts, let him ramp up, and we'll see where he is at.

00:07:36
Speaker 1: With Schreider on one side of things, the guy who had returned, let us discuss Ronald Cuton Junior. He's not quite back yet, but he is also part of our inaugural Arena Club Spotlight segment. So obviously Ronald Cuton is a big deal. Not a huge surprise. We wouldn't be talking about most guys doing rehab assignments in the first segment of a podcast, but he's a big deal. He did play to Guinnett's on the road. He went with them. There's a little bit of cold water that I know. It was discussed a little bit last night too, Like Alex kind of gave a probably not Friday night kind of thing when I think a lot of us were hoping for Friday, even some buzz some reporting ish about Friday night as a target for Ronnie. It is interesting, however, that it's he looked good today again, Like he stretched, he looked at a double, he sent the ball very well. His ops is like fifteen hundred in Gwinette. That's not a huge surprise. But the big obstacle for Ronnie is basically can he play a full game or two or three in the outfield? And I think, look, I didn't watch this, I as at work today. By the box score, he didn't come out of the game, So I'm assuming he played all night innings in the outfield. And that is the first time that's happened. So that would be a nice step forward.

00:08:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a nice little box to check in Ronald's recovery. We'll see what Thursday holds, and then I think the first time the Braves have a decision to make is potentially Friday. Now. If you believe what Alex Andthopoulos said on local radio a couple of days ago, Alex poured a whole bunch of cold water. On Ronald being back, he didn't rule it out, but it did. He wasn't exactly saying, yeah, buyer tickets now, Ronald's coming back. But we also know that Alex is not exactly the most truthful and forthcoming and frankly, things might actually change between I think Monday morning when he had that radio interview and Friday night when the Braves are back home against the Padres. But yeah, nine innings, defensively, Ronald continues to really hit the ball. I mean, he looks he's close to ready, and we'll see what the Braves and the medical staff ultimately decide. But even if it's not this weekend, I would sure think within the next seven eight days would almost certainly I think Ronald will be back.

00:09:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, ween, that's on the road for a while. Longer they play again on Thursday, we'll see if he's in the lineup on Thursday. As we're talking, it's Wednesday night. But yeah, there isn't a whole lot he has to prove at the plate by all accounts, like he's ready to go as a hitter. It's just everything else, and that's frustrating for Brace fans. I do understand that the inkling, especially especially on night like Tuesday, when they fill a score after a little bit of early flourish, everyone kind of rests up the intensity and the anchor level to say, why is.

00:10:17
Speaker 2: It running back?

00:10:19
Speaker 1: I will just I'm not I'm not always an appeal to authority person Scott, but on this one, I will say, if the doctors and trainers think that he was ready to go in the majors right now, he'd be in the majors. That'd be my guess. So if he needs another week, well another week. That's kind of where I am right now.

00:10:37
Speaker 2: Have to be careful. I mean, dear God, let's hope that Ronald's knees are fine. Another reinjury would be devastating. And if that means that you have to give him a few extra reps and really build up strength and have them play nine innings in the outfield a couple of times, and keep on having appearances in the batter's box and everything you need to do. I'm starting to think that Ronald is not going to run a ton on the bases. Agreed, there's no direct sourcing on that, but I would guess that they're going to tell Ronald to chill on the bases a little bit. He's still probably going to steal some bases because he's a maniac and he wants to go out there and win and be competitive. But I think, I mean, I don't think Ronald's going to go out there and steal forty bags over the final four months of the season. Maybe I'm wrong. I was wrong a couple of years ago, though, after the acl tair the first time in twenty twenty two, he ran quite a bit. Yeah, you know, that could be. We'll see. Well, I guess we'll know within a week or two if Ronald's running on the bases. But yeah, defense probably not going to be great out there to start, but I'll take the bat all day long, and maybe Michael Harris can step a couple to his left and help Ronald out in the gap.

00:11:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited, we all are. That's our daily Ronald mcunya junior update. That's going to be probably coming until he returns, honestly, because that's just the nature of the beast. With the top five player in baseball on the precipice of returning. In the meantime, let us check out. Actually, a little word from our friends at Arena Club and it's actually a slab pack that we ripped and we get the opportunity to showcase that on our screen right now if you're watching on YouTube. We got an Austin Riley pull here and we'll talk about Riley later on in the podcast. Actually got a mail that question about him, but of course he's a two time All Star, two types Silver Slogger winner. It's pretty excited to get that in kind of our first public pool here at Arena Club. I've been checking out for a while. It's a fun thing. And also if you wanted to, we can also use the buyback program at Arena Club to get Ronald mccoutney's card instead of Austin's. Are In addition to Austin, there's all kinds of like things there at Arena Club, So check all of that out. I'd recommend that at the absolute highest level. And right now, you get twenty percent off your first slab pack or car purchase by going to Arena Club dot com slash foul and use codefoul. That's Arena Club dot com slash foul code foul for twenty percent off your first purchase. All right, So the news is out of the way. There was no game to discuss yesterday. All stuff from Tuesday happened on Tuesday. It was broken down game. We lay our guys, Steven and Sean. So, Scott, are you ready to tackle some mailbag questions on a Wednesday night?

00:13:12
Speaker 2: Let's do it. We have not done a full on mailbag segment in a while. It is I know people will be appreciate you sending questions. I will say, you know, once we get into the season, it's just so much to talk about with the games. So this will be fun to kind of break up the show and do a little bit of a different segment from what we generally do in the middle of a road trip.

00:13:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, and every once in a while we'll start weaving in some not necessarily specific questions on our game breakdowns, but like topics that are obviously people are asking us about. We'll hit on those, but these are more specific pulled from you guys to listeners and watch this podcast. We'll be already teased. Let's just do this right now. It comes from Kenneth who says, should we'd be worried at all about Austin Riley? And Kenneth says he hasn't felt like himself this season, so interesting enough, Austin has not been the Capitol Letters version of Austin. I think any look at the numbers would tell you that before we dive into some of the more interesting granular data here. What was your innational reaction to this, Like, are you worried at all before we talk about some data on Austin.

00:14:13
Speaker 2: No, I'm not worried necessarily about Austin, although I think it is fair to say that he has really been fighting it the last couple of weeks. I mean, he just I mean, frankly, Austin looks a little lost up there right now.

00:14:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's definitely fighting it right now. That is like very evident. I Mean the numbers in may look okay on the whole for the month, but that was really very concentrated at the beginning of the month and it's been a little bit shaky since then. I Mean, we all know this story with Austin to some degree. He had the big breakout and was really a superstar level player for three seasons in a row from twenty one to twenty three. He averaged like thirty six one months a season, like a five six win player. Each and every season one thirty six rc plus combined for three years, like a superstar level player got the extension all that stuff. The last two years combined, the numbers are fine, Like they're good, they're not superstar good, and they're a kind of a step down for him. And you could say, and I think rightly you would want to say, he got hurt last year in the middle of a hot streak. He actually was playing much better. Maybe that continues, you don't know that for sure, but like he got hurt, and over the last basically year and a half, he's played about a full season worth of games. Last year played like like one hundred and ten this year forty eight. That's one full season, and he has twenty seven home runs. Basically, it's looking's down a decent chunk from previous levels, and he's a one to sixteen WRC plus over that year and a half sample size. And this year, like some of the bat of ball data is still good, but also he's chasing more and walking less and striking out more, and that's not a combination you want to see. That's kind of like some reversion to his early days when he was a little bit shak year before the breakout, so you know, some of the Babbitt numbers are actually not that encouraging across this year, so he is fighting it. It is a small sample size, and I tend generally speaking to lean towards what we've seen over a bigger sample. And the bigger sample is good with Austin, for sure. But if you were worried, I would alwayst understand. Not like worried is like he's going to be awful, but maybe he's not actually going to be back to the superstars, like somewhat of a question to be I don't know.

00:16:21
Speaker 2: I think the fairest thing to say here is the Braves need more out of Austin Ryland. Yeah, someone biggest contract ever ten years, two hundred and twelve million dollars and Riley, I mean sure, if he didn't have that massive contract in the massive expectations, his stats are fine. I mean he's fifteen percent abovely gaverage. And I think blindly if you said, all right, Scott high or lower one fifteen WRC plus the rest of the way, I would confidently say it's going to be over. I think you would too, bread based on your comments and when you look at Riley's page in his profile and his bat at bald data, and it is it's a weird pro fall right now, because when Austin's making contact with the baseball, good things are mostly happening. He has the highest bat speed of his career, and there's more and more and more data every year that shows that bat speed is like the most direct linear connection to high performance. That's good, his exit velocity, his barrel rate, all of the things you want to see from a slugger like Riley are all trending in the right direction eighty fifth, ninetieth percentile or better. But he's swinging and missing way too much. You mentioned the sliders down in a way, which was really the one big flaw he had early in his career. So I don't know. Maybe it's mechanical, maybe it's mental. Maybe it's just a bad stretch of games, because we have certainly seen when Austin Riley is hot, he can make up a lot of ground in a hurry. But every night it feels like Austin is coming up with a chance to drive in runs, and for the most part, he just hasn't been the Austin Riley that we expect in the Braves frankly need if they're going to keep winning games and get back into the playoffs.

00:18:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you know, last two weeks he has a six thirty two ops it slugging like three hundred in that sample. Like, that's not very good. It's only two weeks, but it is what it's got cold right now. The one thing I will not and maybe this is actually optimistic if you want to frame it in a positive light, his infield fly ball rate is like sky high this year. A lot of pop ups, And that might be just like a small mechanical thing, like if you if you're still hitting the ball hard, that's one of those things like when you're when you're in a slump, you're barely missing, and like maybe one one good batting practice session or whatever, one good KG session you fix something like that. Like I think he's always been a hot and cold hitter. I mean, something we should talk about at some point here is that he tends to heat up later in the season. If you will get his career like month by month, splitz his month. His best month is July. The second best month is August. So like he's more of a second half hitter than the first half hitter. And he's always been streaky, like he'll go crazy, like you said before, like two weeks will be kind of in the in the ether, and then suddenly he'll just go nuts for him one so one of these hot streaks and everyone looks totally fine for for rather, which is why I'm not terribly worried. I just we definitely agree though, like he and this is not just him, I mean, this is this is the case for Olsen, this has been the case for azuonat times this year. The Braves can't afford with the way their lineup has been looking san Zacunya Sands Profar even like some of the guys that have a line up every day, the stars need to be stars or the offense doesn't work the same way. And Riley is a case number one baby event.

00:19:32
Speaker 2: And just two very recent examples with Riley and just kind of what he's fighting right now. On Sunday against Brian Bao, the Braves had two runners on and Bo threw an eighty five mile an hour cement mixing slider middle middle, and even in real time, I was like, how did Riley not destroy that ball and send it over the green monster in left field. He ended up filing it off. And then on Tuesday night against Mitchell Parker, Parker left a belt high eighty four mile an hour curveball and it was It wasn't necessarily right in the middle of the plate, but that is the sweet spot for a right handed hitter belt high. Riley should have barreled that ball into the gap or over the fence, and he swung and missed on a relative meatball. I think those two plate appearances are kind of summary of Austin right now. I really do think he's gonna figure it out. But it's been a weird I mean, frankly for the whole team. It's been a weird two months so far, and I think Austin is maybe the poster child of the results haven't been terrible, but they should be a lot better than what we've seen so far.

00:20:35
Speaker 1: I guess on the hole here, should you be worried? I would say no. But also there's a little bit If you want to see what you want to see here, you can probably find it.

00:20:48
Speaker 2: Sorry, Herd just flew into my window and scared the geeze. Holy cow, that.

00:20:53
Speaker 1: Was a good sensor job by you.

00:20:54
Speaker 2: As well.

00:20:55
Speaker 1: This is all staying in the podcast. For the record, this is all staying in anyway. That was a fun little D two or on the podcast. Scott was terrified on the camera, but Austin Riley still good. Hopefully it's gonna better than he's been so far. That's kind of a good synopsis on that one, Scott.

00:21:12
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00:21:44
Speaker 1: This will be a quick one, I think, but I will. Let's just answer it real quick. Here from Cecil who says who will end the season with more plate appearances? Eli White or Alex Ferdugo. And the question I think is here because they almost are exactly the same right now, so far as we're talking on Wednesday night. White has won twenty one plant appearances this year. Dugo has one hundred and eighteen. Verduo has actually played more than White since he got here, because Berdugo, of course, was a late addition to the roster. White's been much better than Verdugo this year. But I think what we was one is coming up is not only Ronnie coming back, which takes away one of the corner affold spots which they've been basically occupying most nights. It's been Dug and White in some form other than the Stuart Fairchild experiments that we've seen, but I mean profiles coming back to at some point like within about what's six weeks. You're supposed to have a Kunya and profar back in about six weeks here, which means no more starting spots. That means pinch hit duty or pinch run duty or whatever. So what do you think, because I obviously do Berdugo has a much more famous player, bigger name, but White's been better and has maybe more ancillary skills.

00:22:52
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah, I think for exactly that reason, I would lean towards Eli White getting more plate appearances than Verdugo now Dugo has the advantage of being left handed. Yep. So the Braves might say, well, Ridugo is gonna get more at bets because you're gonna see more righties than lefties. But I think Eli White has a better chance at playing time, if that makes sense. Obviously a much faster base runner and a really good fielder. I think that's kind of one of the more under the radar stories that we've seen these first two months. Everybody knows the offensive impact that Eli White has had, but his defense is really impressive. He was flying around Fenway Park over the weekend, which is a tough park to field, especially in right field because of some of the weird dimensions over there. So it's kind of a tough one because I do think Ridugo is going to be the primary left handed pinch hitter off the bench, But I mean maybe, well, but they got Drake Baldwin too, so if Baldwin's not playing, I think And then let me ask you this, Brad. This was not a mailback question. Do you think that Profar comes back and plays every single day? No questions asked, I I don't know.

00:24:05
Speaker 1: Number one, which is interesting, like I don't want to say like, I like, I know, I think he will play a lot in part because of Look, the reality is that you don't have to like this, not use going anybody. They've committed money to him for multiple seasons. If he was on a one year deal, it would be a lot more perilous, I would, I'd be less sure he was gonna play. But because of the three year investment. Yeah, I know there was a post bad blood, but I would imagine we saw this with a Zuna. Honestly, it's a different situation. Of course was gone like people on the outside were mad at Azuna. It seemed like the locker room clubhouse didn't really have a problem marself. And I don't know if this is different with its PDS. It might be different, but I could I could see the Braves Clubhouse kind of rounding a round profar and having not be an issue. And look, we'll never know how much it is gonna effected till he plays. Like how much of the breakout year last year had had to do a PDS. It's hard to say of it, but it's hard to say all of it. You know, you don't know. We just don't we don't know, Yes, we all have our assumptions, but they did pay him. He does walk, which is not a pee thing, like he does get on base, and look, especially LUCKYLI White, like are they really gonna are they really gonna sit there and like, you know what, Profar, We're gonna play you out whatever you regularly. I don't know if that's good. Maybe it'll happen. I don't if Eli is still cooking at that point in time. And look, he has cooled off quite a bit, which is gonna happen almost certainly. But I tend to think he's gonna play a lot. But maybe the maybe what will happen is they play Profar a lot, and if it doesn't go well, maybe the leash is shorter than it would have been without the suspension and all of that. Maybe maybe that's my actual guess.

00:25:41
Speaker 2: For now, it sounds fair. I mean, I think they have to play Profar when he comes down.

00:25:46
Speaker 1: They can't not play him at all. Just I've seen Braves fans being like, well screw that guy, I get it. I promise you I get it. But they do have to pay them in for the next two and a half years after it comes back, and they're not gonna not play.

00:25:59
Speaker 2: I shocked, Yeah, just curious. No, it's interesting.

00:26:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, one note actually on the on the left right thing, it's funny. Eli White had a weird career. It's not an Eli White breakdown, but he hasn't played that much, as we all know.

00:26:13
Speaker 2: But if you.

00:26:14
Speaker 1: Take it's like career plate appearances, which is like a like a seasons worth of starting plate appearances. Basically he actually has a reverse platoon split.

00:26:21
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:26:21
Speaker 1: I don't know how real that is, to be one hundred percent candid with you, and I do think that Snit in the end is going to default to platoon stuff even blindly more than he maybe should a lot of the time. But there's a world in which Eli White actually has reverse platoon split, and maybe that actually makes it lean even further in his direction. I think that if you gave me a guest right now in a big spot, let's say ball one's either unavailable or already playing, and they have to pinch it one of them against a righty, it's probably gonna be a verdugo based on Snit's try record. If I had to guess just for the platoon split, but why it's gonna run though, I mean, if nothing else we've seen, Sni is not afraid to pinch run. In fact, I probly does a two E whit. It's gonna be your pitcher runner or what everybody's back at nothing else.

00:27:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And it's not like Verdugo exactly mashes right handed pitching either. I mean, I think, look, man, Verdugo, he was a godsend for about two and a half weeks for this lineup. Yeah, it's yeah, not a coincidence that when Ridugo came in and started running like a four hundred on base, the offense took off and the Braves started winning. But over the last week or two you can kind of see why that Ridugo was unemployed until the middle of March. He has some real flaws. Not a very good defender, basically a single walk or bust type of player. I think Verdugo has like two doubles since he joined the Braves, and they were both at opening week when he joined. I mean, there's no power. No, it's not even like he's hitting the ball to the warning track and it's just missing. You know, Verdugo is a fine fourth outfielder. I think Eli White is a totally fine fourth outfielder. But to put a bow on this, I think you have to probably play profar and hope that his breakout at age thirty one was not entirely ped fuel. I think we.

00:28:06
Speaker 1: Agree holdhartedly on that. And just to answer the question plainly, are we both going to guess White gets more play appeances by end just wrong play appearances? My guess is White.

00:28:16
Speaker 2: I think Eli has won himself some favors with snit, and I think that carries a lot of weight with snicker, And yeah, I would say Eli White by a.

00:28:22
Speaker 1: Knows also sneaky. I'm not fresh much this earlier. If Michael Harris got hurt for two weeks, I think it'd be Eli White center field.

00:28:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, Oh, Verdugo definitely couldn't cover center.

00:28:34
Speaker 1: Which means I mean, and Michael may not miss any time this year, But if he does, that's even that's just basically going to be Eli White every day if I had to guess, because Ronnie can't play there anymore, There's obviously things. All that said, that's just one other wrinkle that might be a swing in that direction. All right, question from Ian this is actually on topic right now. How much did Bryce Elder's recent run change your mind about what he can do moving forward. So we've been Look, we've been very positive Bryce the last couple of weeks. Of course, he just went down to make room for Strider. I don't know that you and I covered that in depth on our show because it was happening in between our podcasts. But it was like, I thought it was fine. I agreed with the decision. You don't love it because Elder was pitching well, but I mean of the options, I was totally fine with it. But it was controversial in some course, Like I think there's always been a lot of Bryce older believers out there, and because he did, he did string together five pretty good starts in a row, and the timing because of that got a lot of attention and it was even more magnifizeds we referred to this earlier. What's ratter struggled. It's like, oh, if that would have been Bryce, they hadn't won the game, Like I wouldn't have said that, but uh, that's the tee up. Scott, what do you think of this question in general? Like, did he change anything in your mind about what he actually is?

00:29:48
Speaker 2: I don't think Elder necessarily changed much in my mind. I think Bryce is a totally fine and frankly pretty good sixth starter. I don't think he's a big leaguer every five days. I know he's shown flashes of doing that at times, but I think as long as Elder is put in a situation to be successful, which is making starts against the Pirates and the Nationals, the Marlins, the Reds, teams that are not very good offensively, I think Bryce is totally fine making a spot start or filling in for a couple of weeks because of an injury. Teams do not have nine goods starting pitchers just waiting in the wings help. The Dodgers spent like a billion dollars trying to do that, and three fifths of their opening day rotation is hurt right now, and the Braves don't have the unlimited money the Dodgers have. So would I be confident giving Bryce Elder the ball in Yankee Stadium tomorrow? No, that would be terrifying it or any against any good team. But teams need a Bryce Elder in their organization and the fact that he's been a good teammate, A good soldier doesn't pout about going up and down somebody, maybe Wily Ballard on the broadcast said that Bryce was a professional and handled everything the right way. And I mean, frankly, if Bryce Elder wanted to make a little bit of a stink and be like, guys, I've made five really good starts in a row, why are you sending me back to the minor leagues again? Yeah, I don't think anyone would necessarily blame him, but it sounds like he's a good dude. He understands his role. He's not you know, he doesn't have illusions of something else. And hey, Bryce is shown at times over the last three years that he can get big leaguers out as long as the situation is the right way.

00:31:30
Speaker 1: Right, And I do think that it's worth keeping in minds a lot of the data points that have happened along the way, Like I think that the Braves kind of told us what they what they thought of Bryce, not in a negative way, but only but all spring and into April they were treating Bryce. He was the seventh or eighth guy honestly in the rotation like and that was I think I thought appropriate. That doesn't mean he's useless because he's not like you I agree with all of what you just said. A lot of teams would like to have Bryce over. Honestly, he'd be a fifth starter for a lot of teams. He'd be a four started for a lot some bad teams. Like he's a very useful pitcher to have an organization. But it's also undeniable that over a twenty seven start stretch that covered about a year and a half, maybe two years calendar wise, he had an ERA over six from mid July of twenty three until late April of this year, twenty seven starts six point one to nine ERA five point twenty six FIP. Like, that's a pretty big sample sound of him being pretty bad at the bijor league level. And now look, if you gave me true cerium and said in his next twenty seven is he better or worse than that? I would say better. I think he's better than that.

00:32:39
Speaker 2: I do.

00:32:40
Speaker 1: But I also would take the over on what he just did over five starts, which was a three point one ERA and a three point seven to eight FIP. That was good to see, but to your point, he only faced one good offense in those five starts. It was a Dodgers. It was a great Honestly, he was great in that game. I was really impressed by that, by that start. But the other four starts came against Washington, Pittsburgh, COO in Saint Louis. That's part of this. So all told, like, I wasn't offended he went that he went down. I think that he did change my mind. Maybe it bolstered me and reminded me a little that he's not just awful like and I never I never thought he was awful, just be very But I'm just just to use in that language flippantly like maybe we were a little bit too low on him at times on the podcast. I'll raise my hand and say that. But I don't think that he's suddenly a guy that you have to throw every five days in the majors if you can, if you have better options. So that's it's somewhere in the middle. But I again, one more time, hat did the Bryce Elder. He did a really good job for about three weeks that was very, very valuable. And if they did him again, Look, there's a world in which they moved grand homes to the bullpen, Bryce goes back up or whatever you're gonna do. But there are options here. That might happen.

00:33:46
Speaker 2: He might.

00:33:47
Speaker 1: In fact, I almost would. I don't want use the I don't want to use the word guarantee. I would predict Bryce makes multiple more starts this year in Atlanta.

00:33:56
Speaker 2: So yeah, he almost, That's what I mean. So yeah, yeah, hey skid, we want to go the next four months, no pitcher injuries. Amazing, let's do it. But yeah, so I think we all know something's gonna come up.

00:34:08
Speaker 1: I agree.

00:34:10
Speaker 4: I just want to say, before Arena Club, if you were trying to very actively buy sell trade, it was very complicated and used a lot of mail that was unnecessary.

00:34:21
Speaker 3: I don't know I even know how to do it. But I'm glad we have Arena Club now because it's a one stop shop for everything card related.

00:34:26
Speaker 4: It is, and right now you can get twenty percent off your first slab pack or your first card purchase by going to Arena club dot com. Slash foul, use code foul. If you're a collector, you've got to check out Arena Club. Go get after it.

00:34:42
Speaker 1: Okay, Scott, And to not go super duper long here, we'll do at least one more, maybe super all about you decide, but one that we wanted to talk about a little bit that we talked about briefly before we started recording. Goes from Turner who says, would you move Michael Harris to the nine hole when Acunya comes back? And Turner also says he thrived while they were before and had the protection of the top of the lineup behind him. So interesting hypothetical here. Michael has been better lately, though not great lately still, but better, showing more signs, taking more walks like approach has been better. But the nurse of the season are pretty rough. And all I'll say to you up skys that if you look at just the splits in his career, Harris's best numbers are in the ninth hole. I don't know if that matters, I really don't, but that is just the cold hard data. His best batting order slot is number nine. So what do you make of this?

00:35:34
Speaker 2: It's an interesting idea, So Michael Harris to the nine spot. There has been some recent data and I'm blanking on the Baseball rider who was talking about it, but some recent data that you actually want the worst hitter in your lineup to bat seven in terms of run optimization, and that you actually do want a pretty solid hitter batting ninth. Again, conventional wisdom, your ninth hitter is only your ninth hitter until then, your leadoff hitter, your second hitter, your third hitter. So the idea of getting Michael Harris some real protection with Ronald a'cunya Junior, then the leadoff is interesting. If Michael Harrison keep improving and up that walk rate, then you get him on base with his speed ahead of Acunya and Riley and Olsen and Ozuna and the catchers. So that's interesting. But there's also a part of me then that knows that you're voluntarily going to be giving Nick Allen more played appearances every night than Michael Harris. I don't know, there's probably pros and cons to both, but I think it's at least interesting and not totally far fetched. And if the Braves want to try it when Acuna comes back, then sure. But if they also just want to leave Mike in the sixth spot or the seventh spot, then that'd be fine too.

00:36:51
Speaker 1: Yeah. I to to agree with you. The theory of the offense when Ronnie comes back is that the only bad hitter on paper in your brain is Snick Ollen, and so that's the one spot you're worried about. Do you where do you want Nick Allen hitting? It's not us. That's almost more of the question than where you want Michael Harris hitting. As funny as that sounds, like, if you are prone to what you if the bravest analytical staff or the front office believes what you just laid out, and that maybe if they agree with that and say that your worst hitter should beating seventh or eighth to the seven, ninth, nick Allen is in the worst whatever the worst spot is, is where Nick Allen should be hitting. Do you respect to Nick Allen? We're all enjoying the account experience. Defensively, he's done a great job this year.

00:37:28
Speaker 2: He can't hit.

00:37:28
Speaker 1: I'm sorry everybody, he can't hit, but it's fine. That's the whole theory of his team is you're gonna have one bad hitter and it's supposed to be nickout. And if look, if Michael's comfortable on that spot. He's had the most career plant appearance, not just the numbers like unsuccessful, he actually has the most career plan appearances in his career at any spot at ninth.

00:37:49
Speaker 2: So if he likes that.

00:37:50
Speaker 1: If Snith likes that, I don't mind it at all, doesn't bother me. I'm also I am prone to believing, honestly that this is not that big of a deal in any direction. So if they want to try it and it works, one thing I will say about snid if it's something's working, he'll leave it.

00:38:06
Speaker 2: He'll just leave it, absolutely.

00:38:08
Speaker 1: So if they try it it works, that's gonna be it for a while, which is fine with me.

00:38:13
Speaker 2: Was it last year or the year before when Matt Olson was kind of in a funk and then he either moved from fourth to second or second to fourth, I can't remember which way, or third he moved his batting order spot, and then Matdilson went on a tear and everyone was like, Oh, it's because he's batting in this spot now.

00:38:31
Speaker 1: Which is not. It's just not. I'm sorry, it's not.

00:38:33
Speaker 2: I mean, in your reality, it's probably a mixture of baseball. And it was learned later that Matdilson said that Marcelo Zuna noticed something with his hand placement. Matt moves him around some mechanics and then he went on a tear. The rest of the way. Hey, maybe Marcel can find something wrong because we could use MVP level mad Olson as he was two years ago. So yeah, I mean, if if you could simulate one hundred and sixty two games with different lineups, awesome, of course teams would it, But obviously you can't do it. Hey, if you're telling me, at some point in the next couple of weeks, snit throws a lineup out there with Michael Harris patting ninth behind Acunya or I guess ahead of a Kunya in that situation. Sure, and if the Braves scored two runs that night, we will never see that lineup again. And if they scored eight runs that night, that's probably going to be the lineup until August.

00:39:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, as much as I don't really care that much about line up stuff, I care about some stuff, But you don't want to have bad hitters in the two hole like that used to happen, the Dano Castro thing that we yelled about for years, oh long and long ago. That's most of the like crazy crazy stuff doesn't happen anymore. That's the reality. Like we used to do a lot more line up construction stuff on this podcast, honestly, like ear nine years ago on our on our old show. But like generally speaking, teams don't do insane things anymore with a lineup, and I don't think that Nick Allen hitting the eighth and harrisoning knife would be insane. I think it'd be totally reasonable given what Michael's not done so far. Try if you want to, and also if they don't, I won't really care either, to be honest with you, all right, last one here, Scott before we go crazy long on this podcast comes from Ron, who says, I realized the Braves have played better, but how much are you worried about missing the playoffs? Every time I look at the standings, I get queasy about the Mets and the Phillies. And hey, that's a reasonable thing to get worried about, because the Mets have just lost their games in a rows. But talking, but they've been really, really good, and the Phillies are thirty and eighteen, so like the Braves are in a division right now. And look, it's been so early that we haven't talked about this much, but they are two of the top three teams in the National League right now, the Phillies and the Mets, and that does matter in pursuit of the division title, all that stuff, but the question was about the playoffs. To be fair, we also got a related question that I'll throw to you before we answer this one. It came from a quote depressed Braves fan on Twitter which made me laugh, And basically the question was if one was a bottom feed and ten was a World series like Favorite Slash Contender, where would you rate the Braves right now? So these are kind of the same question in some respects. It's like, basically, Scott, how good are the Braves? Like, where's your confidence level? Like it's been forty eight games of twenty four and twenty four thirty percent of seasons over, how are we feeling? Big picture?

00:41:15
Speaker 2: So all right, So Fangrafts is at sixty seven percent to make the postseason right now, so two out of three yep. I would lean on the overside of that, I'd probably say more like seventy seventy five percent. I think the fact that this team has been a five hundred team with no Acunya, basically no Strider, no Lopez, no Profar, and I just I have to think that when you get Acunya back, and I really do believe Strider is going to be better. I think that's really going to give them a boost. I think the Mets and the Phillies are good, but they are hardly uncatchable, and neither team has put a ton of distance between themselves and the Braves. Last time I looked, I think it was a five game deficit in the East. And the Braves have only played the Phillies three times and they have not played the Mets yet, So there's still so much baseball to be played. There are still things I really worry about with this team. Is it a perfect team? No, Frankly, this is probably the worst team we have seen since twenty eighteen. Is that fair at least to start? I mean twenty twenty one, that first half was so frustrating, But knowing how that story ended kind of makes it tough to say. But regardless, I do. If I had to put every dollar to my name, will the Braves make the playoffs this year as of May twenty second, yes, I would say yes, they might be a wild card, but that truly means nothing. We know. Just get into the dance, get hot for a month, see what happens. But I'm also not going to be naive and say this team is all good and dandy, and Acuni is gonna come back, and then they're gonna rip off twenty out of twenty four and ind in first place by fourth of a lot.

00:43:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're in the same spot for the most part, which is of course bad pass bad podcast, and we should be more first take style will just take a position. I'm not going to do that though, And by the way, we'll never do that. I'm kidding.

00:43:11
Speaker 2: Never. That is our guarantee to you. Somebody will log us out of the podcast app before we turn into a Steven A. Smith style.

00:43:19
Speaker 1: I will not. None of us are going to take a position just to take a position. We have to believe what we say, and we're always going to believe what we say. I find it interesting actually, as person who regularly brings up brings up the betty market on this podcast, the Braves are a little bit lower in the betty market than they aren't Fangrafts. Right now, They're still favorite to make the playoffs, but not by a lot. It's like a minus one twenty five minus one thirty, which is a slight favorite to make the playoffs, like but that's well below where fanografts is and by the way, Pakota, which is Baseball Perspectives is projection. They have bravees like seventy six percent to make the playoffs. That's a pretty high number given where they are at five hundred. I am with you. I believe the Breis are going to make the playoffs. Still, there has not been a day this season that I thought they wouldn't, which makes me maybe an outlier because then I know they were. I know they were. They were five and thirteen, they were zero and seven at that point in time, I was certainly wavering more than I was preseason, but something in my head won't let me get there yet. Look if they're forty eight and forty eight in the next forty you know, in the next forty eight games or twenty four, if they get to that point, I'll be more worried. That's that's the reality they got. They gotta start stacking wins. But they have played quite well. I got into it back and forth on on our YouTube comments with a comments or who was incensed that I said the Braids were playing good baseball. The Braids were nineteen and ten in twenty nine games when I said that that's that's pretty good they've been. They've been pretty darn good now for about five weeks now. That doesn't mean anything that they might lose games now they lost it, frustrating him on Tuesday. We covered that in depth on the show last night. But yeah, I will definitely say make the playoffs, and uh division is a big undertaking. I would not pick the brains of winning the division right now, just to be very clear now, only the honestly, and the only reason I'm saying that is because of the depth that they have right now. Like I don't. I don't think that they're any worse still at this moment than the Phillies and the Mets, but they are six games behind the Phillies and that's that's a meaningful difference after the season. So I wouldn't pick them to win the division right now. They definitely can, but I would with some confidence say playoffs.

00:45:26
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, it's it's man. I am thankful after that five and thirteen start. We did that podcast after the Blue Jays loss. It's like, Brad, I don't know, like I really don't know.

00:45:39
Speaker 1: We're wavering for sure. I understand since.

00:45:42
Speaker 2: Then they have a top three record, in baseball best record in the NL, they're close to it, so they've done a good job making up ground. And the fact that when you look at the standings twenty four and twenty four, you're not gonna call home tell Grandma about it. But whenever you start out so poorly like they did, it's gonna take a while, like a considerable while to get out of this hole and not just be above five hundred, but get to five, above, ten, above fifteen above, which is ultimately what they're going to need to do if they want to get into the postseason.

00:46:11
Speaker 1: Next absolutely, and look, the journey continues. Slash begins anew on Thursday after the rainout today, So hopefully this got you through a little bit of the rainout blues on a Wednesday night into Thursday. We'll have more coming up later on this week. It is Smith Shov against Trevor Williams on Thursday. The Braves and NAT's both pushed back their starters. It was supposed to be the big showdown between Chris Sale McKenzie Gore on Thursday. Not getting out anymore. But but I was glad was the Braves pushed sail back that the Nationals also pushed Gore back because Gore's their best picture, so that worked okay for the Braves. It's a rematch what we saw about a week ago when the Braves beat the Nationals in the same matchup. With Smiths Shower pitching. Well, he's been great lately, so hopefully that continues on Thursday. Also kind of it's a little bit weird that it's a night game on getaway Day. Usually that's afternoon game. But uh, better for the watching public, probably for me honestly, to watch the game in more depth on Thursday night. So anything you're looking for on that one, Scott, and if not, let us sign off on this Wizard night.

00:47:12
Speaker 2: I am looking for no rain please, yeah, please let the rain God know. No rain for podcasts too, Yeah, no rain between six thirty and ten o'clock tomorrow night. But yeah, let's let's get the game in. Let's not do a lengthy rain delay, especially having to then travel back home to Atlanta to play the Padres, who were a good team. Let's get the game in. Let's get a win. Trevor Williams is not good at all. He's been around forever and the Braves should keyword should be able to hit him pretty hard. They got to Williams last week in a rematch of these two pitchers, and let's get a win and get back home for a little bit and get the vibes back in the right direction.

00:47:52
Speaker 1: Co sign that, Scott. I appreciate you being here with me Rain or Shine. I mean, truly, we are always a winner Shine podcast. But we uh, we're like, you know what we're doing the show anyway, mail bad questions. We were already planned to record, so here we are earlier than usual on a Wednesday evening. Please subscribe to this show anywhere you find your podcast Apple, Spotify, YouTube, Podbean, pick your favorite podcast player of choice. We're there. If you're audio listener, smash subscribe on YouTube. If you're a YouTube watcher, subscribe on Apple, on Apple or Spotify as well. Follow Scott if you want to at Scott pulling fifty five on social media. He's a wonderful follow.

00:48:29
Speaker 2: I will I will provide an update on the maybe dead bird that ran into my window midway through the show. It was loud. I don't know what happened at poor bird. He's I mean, maybe he just knocked out, but uh damn, that was wild. Anyway, it's a podcast for all the time. Yeah, it was.

00:48:46
Speaker 1: It was fun to talk with you. As always, Follow Scott if you want to follow me. I I'm up at BT Roland. Our show is at Hammer Territory on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, et cetera. And again, one more time subscribe and look, I'm sure you haven't Raves fan or twelve in your life. Tell them about the podcast. Maybe they'll hate it. That's definitely possible. I promise you it's possible. Then wut, but hey, give it how they give it a chance. That's all we're asking. Help us to spread the word on social media, texts, emails, whatever it is in your life sharing the podcast. We definitely appreciate everyone's in the show. As always, we'll have more to come layer on this week and we'll see everybody next up.