Daybreak Weekend: US CPI Preview, Nobel Prizes, Ishiba Agenda

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg day 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.200 Break Weekend, our global look at the top stories in 0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:16.880 the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:18.840 It's great ahead on the program, a look at some 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:22.320 key inflation data in the US and how it may 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:26.239 impact FED policy moving forward. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:28.920 I'm Callin Hetgo in London, where we're delving into the 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:31.920 universe of the world's most famous prizes. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.960 I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. We look ahead to 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:39.760 new Japanese Prime Minister's Shighetto Ishiba's idea of Asian NATO. 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:48.240 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg Eleve, 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:51.840 The Free Ow, New York, Bloombergen ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:56.720 Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:01.520 DAB Digital Radio, London, SIRIS XM one, and around the 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.600 world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:05.280 Business Channel. 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.720 Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:14.480 program with US inflation data out this week. September's consumer 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.920 price index out this Thursday. On Friday, the producer price 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.680 index for that same month, with less than a month 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:24.240 ago before its next policy meeting. How might this impact 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.840 the Fed's monetary policy moving forward? Well for more, we're 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:31.400 joined by Edwin Harrison, senior editor and the author of 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:34.880 the Everything Risk newsletter Well Edward. Just last week, FED 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:38.240 Chair Jern Pal said inflation still easing, moving toward the 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.440 central bank's long held goal of two percent, and despite 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:43.520 a slight up ticket inflation for August, what are you 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:46.160 expecting to see this week for September? 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:51.120 Yes, Tom good to talk to you. We are expecting, 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:55.880 or at least the market's expecting CPI on the tenth 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:58.760 to come in at two point three percent. But you know, 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:01.480 without food and enery, which are the valet items that 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:03.880 are in there, that number is expected to be at 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:07.200 three point two percent, which is in line with the 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:08.040 previous read. 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:10.360 So three point two percent is pretty high. 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:13.240 The next day, we're going to get a look at 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:17.000 producer prices and those are expected to go up slightly 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:20.640 to two point seven percent, also well above the fed's 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.919 two percent targets. So those numbers, you know, they may 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:26.240 be coming down, they're still relatively high. 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:27.320 Well. 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:30.720 One reason oil and gas prices. You know, they have 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:34.720 been terrific for the consumer for the last few months. 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.840 But wor someing tentions in the Middle East, crude price 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.120 is soaring this past week. That could really impact people's 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:43.280 wallets and spending. Will that be a big factor, do 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.079 you think? Or not yet in these numbers. 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:47.680 Not yet. 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:50.359 In these numbers, Tom, you point out a very good 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:54.960 thing because when you look at the CPI without food 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.640 and energy, it's at two point three percent. You know, 0:02:57.680 --> 0:02:59.519 you take out food and energy and it's three point 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.600 two percent, so it's higher. You know, the numbers that 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.800 you were talking about coming down have actually suppressed the 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:10.160 CPI over the last year. But with those numbers going 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:14.960 up recently, it's going to make the overall CPI higher 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:18.000 than it otherwise would have been. So down the line, 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.920 we could probably expect that two point three number to 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:21.799 kick up from here. 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:24.560 That is troubling data. But we have a lot of 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.840 good news too. Let's talk about this past Friday's jobs report. 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:30.799 We're showing a lot more ads than forecasting, unemployment rate 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.920 edging lower. This is good news. A GDP in the 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:37.040 third quarter two point five percent, That is solid growth. 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:37.880 Yeah. 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:40.440 I mean, I have to say, it really does change 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:45.080 the narrative. Instead of people worrying about a recession, now 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.560 people are almost thinking. I've heard the term no landing, 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.480 as in the economy doesn't land, it doesn't slow down, 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:52.760 It just keeps on chugging. 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:54.560 That's how good the numbers were. 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:56.280 You know, just to break it down for you a 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.120 little bit, the unemployment rate kick down to four point 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:02.560 one percent. We saw the non farm payrolls at two 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:06.360 hundred and fifty four thousand, which is well above the 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.600 one hundred and fifty that people thought about. It was 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:13.480 outside of all estimates. And you know, hourly earnings were 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.080 up four point zero percent year on year. 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:17.320 That's really good. 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:21.080 Also good now the Boeing strike that is slogging on, 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.159 but we had a bit of a break in that 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:27.839 long shortman strike at least until January after the November's election. 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:30.960 You know, that's easing a lot of worriedes minds right now. 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:33.240 I think no runs on toilet paper at least for now. 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:37.000 And you know, Tom, you make a good point because 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.560 when you know there's going to be two numbers that 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.880 we get, there was the number that we got on Friday, 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:45.280 and then there's another one. 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:49.159 Right before the FED decides in November. And it had been. 0:04:49.040 --> 0:04:51.400 The case that the read that we get in early 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:54.839 November was going to be sort of sullied by one 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:56.880 off factors like the long Shortman strike. 0:04:56.960 --> 0:04:59.800 But now we're going to get a good read. 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.200 And when you add in how good this number was, 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:07.680 with the potential that that's also a potentially good number 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:11.680 that we can use as a real data point, it 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.000 says that instead of thinking the FED would ease fifty 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:19.440 basis point potentially, the market could start thinking, wait a minute, 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:20.200 the Fed's not. 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.680 Going to ease at all at one of these next meetings. 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:26.120 Oh so there's whispers now not even a twenty five 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:27.200 basis point cut. 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.800 If the data continue to be as good as they 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:34.039 are one of these next meetings, not necessarily the one 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.880 in November, but December or January, the market could price 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:39.800 in no cut for those meetings. 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:40.480 Wow. 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:43.359 But we did hear from a chairman pal this past 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:47.680 week and it sounds like if the economic data remains consistent, 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:51.080 another cut in November, you know, four weeks from now, 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:56.000 possibly another small cut in December. So there is a 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.520 lot of hope that that's going to happen. But it's 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.760 all as they say, dat it dependent. 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:02.239 That's very true. 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:05.600 And so now with the data looking as good as 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:08.360 it is, I think that we can breathe a sigh 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:08.960 of relief. 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:10.960 And I think that will be. 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:15.719 Very helpful for the equity markets going forward, because ultimately, 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:19.960 when people are making four percent more in their paychecks, 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:23.240 they're able to spend more. That's going to support corporate 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.560 earnings and as a result, we should continue to see 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:28.000 stocks rally from here. 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:32.479 Well September CPI data out this Thursday, PPI on Friday. 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:36.080 Our thanks to Edward Harrison, Bloomberg Senior Editor, the author 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:40.120 of the Everything risk newsletter Time Flies and to prove it. 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:42.960 A new earning season kicking off this week, two of 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.920 the nation's biggest banks, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:49.160 will report their third quarter earnings this Friday. What will 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:51.279 the results tell us about the health of the banking system, 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:54.520 the US economy and the US consumer? For more, we're 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:59.039 joined by Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, Global Banks 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:02.560 and Asset Manager. Allison, what are you expecting to see 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:06.000 from JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo later this week. 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:09.280 So generally expecting solid quarter for the banks. Of course, 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:11.800 it's all about the outlook and a few things that 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:16.120 we'll be focusing on. First, the outlook for net interest 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:20.760 income is certainly top of mind with investors given the 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.840 FED cuts that we saw in September and the implied 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:28.239 cuts in the months ahead, and our view it's really 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:31.720 about loan growth and if we can see that loan 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:35.840 growth to help improve the net interest income. On the 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:39.920 positive side of things, the beginning of the rate cut 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:45.240 cycle I think removes some of the concerns around higher 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:50.160 deposit costs. The banks still have a very big deposit bases, 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:56.400 core deposits where they're getting free funding and so there's 0:07:56.520 --> 0:08:01.240 less risk to those deposits in that price saying with 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:05.680 the FED beginning to ease. But again, what's happening with 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:08.880 loan growth to some extent that also relates to the 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:13.560 economic outlook. On the capital market side, we expect that 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:17.440 trading will continue to be resilient at all of the banks, 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:20.600 and so this is obviously a bigger source of revenue 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:25.760 for JP Morgan. But Wells Fargo has certainly been making 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:30.240 strides to invest and improve their business. Equities trading is 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:35.480 really going to be the highlight. The world's market capitalization 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:40.480 reached a record high in Bloomberg data in September, and 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.600 we think that the prime brokerage business has certainly gotten 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:48.679 some help from the stronger equity prices. We expect that 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:54.760 equities trading will outperform fixed income trading, but that fixed 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:59.559 income trading will be relatively resilient, helped from the credit 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:04.079 trading side of things. The fee revenue side is really 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.520 where investors are focusing on in terms of the outlook 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:11.040 for twenty twenty five. It's a smaller revenue source but 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:16.080 certainly helps the profitability of the banks M and A, 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.600 which is an area that we think we could see 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:24.439 a lift next year coming off of some very low levels. 0:09:25.200 --> 0:09:29.360 We think that the dialogues have been very active, but 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:33.240 also to the extent that the FED cuts and the 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:37.920 FED actions helped to improve CEO confidence, we could get 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.960 an uplift in deals. On the equity underwriting side, we 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:46.280 have seen some better trends, especially in the US market 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:51.319 this year, although it was slowed down certainly more than 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:54.000 investors would have liked to see in September, just given 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:58.000 some of the volatility, But turning to the debt side, 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.319 very strong activity that to help both for the banks, 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:06.080 but we want to hear what's on tap for the 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:10.800 months ahead in the debt market. We do suspect that 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.520 there has been a little bit of pull forward of refinancing, 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:17.720 just based on some of the experts comments here in 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:20.520 BI as well as some of the banks, and so 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.320 that I think is a key question for the earnings calls. 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:27.680 And have banks put aside more money for credit losses 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.000 and some of those commercial real estate losses. 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:35.360 They have, they've been putting aside money for commercial real 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.160 estate losses, but credit card has really been the area 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:42.280 where banks have been reserving, and that really relates to 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.080 a lot of the growth. Card is really the area 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:48.360 that we've continued to see strong growth, especially at the 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.760 big universal banks that I cover, which as you know, 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:54.880 are over indexed to that product versus some of the 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.040 regional banks, and so a lot of it is just 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:01.880 the fact that this is a general only higher loss product, 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:04.839 and so when you get the growth and you're looking 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:07.320 out over the life of the loan, which is the 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:11.280 accounting change that we saw back in twenty twenty, that 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.440 does tend to lead to relatively bigger reserves. But I 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:16.960 think what of users are going to be focusing on 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:20.320 as well as ourselves are you know, what are the 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:24.280 trends in charge offs and delinquencies. We did see a 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:28.360 pickup in the first half, but the seasonal trends generally 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:32.000 support things improving, and so we'll be looking for evidence 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:33.000 of that at the banks. 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:36.160 Now you spoke about an uptick in M and A activity, 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.960 are you also seeing any IPO activity on the horizon 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:40.800 picking up? 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.560 We have seen some pick up this year. We did 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:47.280 see a very strong July which was boosted by one 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:51.600 particular IPO in the US, so that is helpful to fees. 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:55.440 But I think that is something that we'd like to 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:59.319 see sort of more of a pickup in the months ahead. 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:03.320 Certainly with the strength of the equity markets, we would 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:07.240 expect to see a little bit more strength than we have. 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:11.040 But I think, you know, that disappointment really relates to 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:15.000 the fact that a couple of years ago we saw 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.240 some of the valuation rounds for some of the private 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:24.160 companies come at much higher valuation levels, and so while 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:28.120 the global equity markets are reaching a new high, that's 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.800 not necessarily true for all companies, and for a lot 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:34.240 of the companies waiting to go public, they are still 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.200 waiting on a little bit more valuation improvement. 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.480 Oh boy, okay, so trading revenue, net interest income. The 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.000 new earning season kicking off this Friday, a lot to 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.160 look forward to. Our thanks to Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:51.240 Senior analyst, Global Banks and Asset Managers. Coming up on 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.800 Bloomberg day Break Weekend will delve into the universe of 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.640 the world's most famous prizes. I'm Tom Busby and this 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:12.440 is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.600 look ahead at the top stories for investors in the 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.800 coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.000 in our program, we'll discuss what's next for Japan after 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:24.120 selecting a new leader for its ruling party. But first, 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.079 in the coming days, the Nobel Prizes will be handed 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:31.080 out in chemistry, economics, literature, and more. The Swedish Academy 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.480 recognizing and rewarding an impressive list of industry leaders in 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:37.320 its one hundred and twenty three years. But what is 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.880 the influence of the awards today? For more, Let's go 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.599 to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline. 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:49.240 Hepgar tom Before Alfred Nobel, a nineteenth century businessman and chemist, 0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:54.280 created his eponymous awards. He was best known for inventing dynamite. 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:58.199 The explosives soon became popular in construction and mining, as 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.560 well as in the weapons industry. It made Nobel a 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:05.000 very rich man. Perhaps it also made him think about 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.880 his legacy, because towards the end of his life he 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:11.760 decided to use his vast fortune to fund annual prizes 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:15.920 to those who, during the preceding year have conferred the 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:20.760 greatest benefit to humankind in the modern world. Some argue 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:24.520 that the Nobel Prizes project has an aura of being 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.440 above the political fray focus solely on the benefits of humanity, 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:32.760 but the institution isn't a stranger to controversy. The Peace 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.840 and Literature Awards in particular, are sometimes accused of bias. 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.080 Critics question where the winners are selected because their work 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:45.040 is truly outstanding or because it aligns with the political 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:50.680 preferences of the judges. The Norwegian Nobel Committee responsible for 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:55.000 the Peace Prize insists that it is independent, with the 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.680 sole mission of carrying out the will of Alfred Nobel. However, 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:02.440 it does have links to Norway's political system. The five 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:06.520 members are appointed by the Norwegian Parliament, so the panel's 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:11.200 composition reflects the power balance in the legislature. The body's 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:15.560 efforts to remain neutral don't always protect against a backlash either. 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:20.280 When the imprisoned Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo won the Peace 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:24.640 Prize in twenty ten, Beijing responded by freezing trade talks 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:28.560 with Norway. It took years for Norway China relations to 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:33.800 be restored. External scrutiny can also become intense when high 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.160 profile winners are involved, such as in two thousand and 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:41.200 nine when President Barack Obama won the Peace Prize less 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:45.840 than a year after taking office. But despite the occasional backlash, 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:50.720 honorees enjoy wide ranging influence after taking home a Nobel. 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:54.160 Their opinions on the issues of the day often carry 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.680 weight for many. Joseph Stiglitz, the winner of the two 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:01.680 thousand and one Nobel Prize in Eco Nomics, often shares 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:06.080 his insights on matters of global importance. Here he is 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.640 discussing the upcoming US presidential election. 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:15.240 I think both candidates will have policies that recognize that 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:22.520 we went too far in books sometimes called hyperglobalization, and 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:26.560 the evidence was that during two thousand, during the pandemic, 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.560 the United States couldn't produce even simple products like face 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.600 masks and protective gear. 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:34.680 You're let alone ventilators. 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:38.920 We got to own ventilators or even tests. And Europe 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:44.120 had become totally dependent on Russian gas. In a book 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.600 at one of the books I wrote was called Making 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:51.720 Globalization Work. After I wrote this book called Globalization Discontent 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:54.520 that explained what was wrong, my wife said, you have 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.600 to get the answers. You can't just be a critic. 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.240 So I wrote that book. But in that one of 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.320 the things I said was it is really crazy for 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:08.960 Germany to be so dependent on Russian gas, and indeed 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:11.600 it was, and indeed it was. You know, Bush could 0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:14.240 look in the eyes of Putlin said there's somebody I 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:16.200 could trust. But I think the rest of the world 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:20.399 didn't feel quite quite so comfortable. So there will be 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:26.840 an adjustment from hyper globalization in both parties. But the 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:33.760 difference is one in which I think Harris is committed 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:39.280 to a global framework working with what she views, you know, 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:43.320 with our partners, close partners of those you know, like 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:47.359 our NATO allies, but also our partners in the South, 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:51.119 and so it's trying to avoid of rupture and doing 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:55.600 everything we can't as we adjust our economy to embrace 0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:58.199 the rest of the world. But the other one is 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:02.680 I think the way to understand Trump is his view 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.480 of the world is a zero sum, and that means 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.080 if the US does better, other countries will do worse. 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.280 Other countries do better. You saw the charts about how 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:16.240 other countries were doing. His view is that's at the 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:20.760 expense of the United States. And so any of you 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:26.200 who study at economics know that we believe it's positive sum. 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:30.320 If the developing countries and emerging markets grow, it's a 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:35.240 better global world and helps us. So it's not zero sum, 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:39.480 it's positive some and that is the fundamental philosophical difference 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:41.160 between the two candidates. 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.359 That was Joseph Stiglitz speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.520 Forum in New York last month. So, as we look 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:53.040 ahead to upcoming announcements about the twenty twenty four crop 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:57.159 of Nobel Prize recipients, I've been discussing the history of 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:02.240 the Nobel Awards, the diplomatic tension and past winners along 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:06.800 with the current challenges in choosing who to recognize today 0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:11.880 with Bloomberg's Nor Dick Managing editor Katy poian Palo. 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:16.600 So, we've got six prizes being awarded starting next week, 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.760 and each one of them can be shared by up 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:23.640 to three persons. With the Peace Prize, it can actually 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:27.960 also go to an organization. So it's a selection process 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.320 that is shrouded in secrecy. Who is considered for the 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:36.120 award is not known, and the list of people nominated 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:40.920 is sealed for fifty years. There's even some people who 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:44.080 get nominated dozens of times before they end up getting 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:45.720 the award or or not. 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.200 So remind us of what sort of work has won 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:52.879 in the past. Then, if the process is so secretive. 0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:56.119 What we've got the science awards, you know, medicine or 0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:59.400 physiologies one of them. We've got physics, we've got chemistry, 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:02.520 and these ones tend to award a lot of sort 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:06.880 of scientific work that is foundational science. It's things that 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:10.320 can underpin other discoveries, things that can be used in 0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:13.600 a number of fields. So as an example, last year, 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:18.280 the Chemistry prize went to something that was called quantum dots, 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:22.200 and these are extremely tiny in animal particles that can 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:25.440 be used on things like TVs and lead lamps, or 0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:29.960 they can guide surgeons when they've removed tumor tissue for example. 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:34.120 Some of the other discoveries that we have had, for example, 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:38.840 in medicine in twenty to ten you had individual fertilization. 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:43.439 When the award discoveries of various viruses such as the HIV, 0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:48.240 the human papilloma viruses. They've also been awarded back in 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.639 the day and one hundred years ago the discovery of 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:56.520 insulin got the award. Now for physics, you also you 0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:59.639 tend to get a lot of awards for science that 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:03.600 is indecipherable for a layman. But some years you get 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:08.280 things like the development of lithium ion batteries or you know, 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:12.600 some several several decades ago there was an award for 0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:17.600 how to preserve animal fodder, so that keeps over winter. 0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:21.520 For the Peace and the Literature Prize, it can really 0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:26.119 vary what sort of work is awarded, but really really 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:30.560 it's supposed to award work that have had the greatest 0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:34.480 benefits to humankind, as by the will of Alfred Noble. 0:21:35.000 --> 0:21:38.920 In terms of the issues sometimes around the prize I 0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:44.960 mean Norway has faced backlash for perhaps not the scientific 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:48.440 names as much, but certainly for the Nobel Peace Prize. 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:50.159 Is there a risk that there is going to be 0:21:50.240 --> 0:21:52.680 some controversy maybe this year too well. 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.440 Definitely is that risk. So five of the prizes are 0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.520 handed out in Sweden and the Peace Prize in Norway, 0:21:58.520 --> 0:22:01.920 and this also according to Alfred Nobel's will that set 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:05.960 out these awards, and what we've seen in Norway. For example, 0:22:06.000 --> 0:22:10.960 in twenty ten, prize was awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Chielbo, 0:22:11.640 --> 0:22:14.920 and that really ended up straining China's ties with Norway, 0:22:15.680 --> 0:22:18.480 and the Norwegian government had nothing to do with awarding 0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:21.920 this prize, so it's taken years for them to improve 0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:25.760 that relationship between the two countries. And so what tends 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:29.359 to happen is sometimes the Peace Prize goes to a contemporary, 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:33.639 a very highly controversial political actor, and in that case 0:22:33.720 --> 0:22:39.160 that can drive a controversy. Or other times you see 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:44.680 more focus being put on some national conflict, for example, 0:22:44.720 --> 0:22:48.640 and then local authorities interpret that as interference in their 0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:49.600 national matters. 0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.080 Who makes up the judging committee then. 0:22:52.680 --> 0:22:56.040 You actually need to talk about a selection process with 0:22:56.080 --> 0:23:01.000 this because it's not a competition as such. Prizes themselves 0:23:01.040 --> 0:23:05.160 are awarded by a number of different institutions in Sweden 0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:08.280 and then also in the Norway, and each of them 0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:11.320 have a handful of voting members who ultimately get to 0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:14.720 choose who it becomes a Nobel Laureate. How they get 0:23:14.760 --> 0:23:20.320 the names though, is they send out requests to qualified 0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:25.680 people who can nominate them. These include previous laureates, people 0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:29.920 who've been awarded in the past, university professors in a 0:23:30.000 --> 0:23:33.040 relevant subject in the Nordic countries for example, and they 0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:36.320 could also just reach out to other scientists who they've 0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:41.440 specifically selected to give their views, and then they draw 0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:45.240 up you know, long list, shortlist, and ultimately there is 0:23:45.280 --> 0:23:45.760 a vote. 0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:50.560 Why do some people think then that the judging, the adjudication, 0:23:50.760 --> 0:23:54.080 the thought around this, especially around the Peace Prize then 0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:59.600 is kind of biased or maybe even influenced in terms 0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:02.240 of the Nobel Prizes. How does that play out? 0:24:02.800 --> 0:24:06.919 Controversies really from the politics surrounding this. So, for example, 0:24:06.920 --> 0:24:09.440 if you look at the Peace Prize, when it gets 0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:14.080 awarded to a dissident in a country, the government of 0:24:14.119 --> 0:24:18.040 that country would likely feel that that is against them 0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:19.800 and call a bias. 0:24:20.080 --> 0:24:23.600 Is the Nobel still relevant? Does its influence on the 0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:24.840 Nobel Prize winners? 0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:28.320 I think many would argue that the Nobels are relevant. 0:24:28.440 --> 0:24:31.840 There is a lot of prestige that comes with the prize, 0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:35.359 and a lot of these laureates can actually, you know, 0:24:35.920 --> 0:24:38.720 they can become superstars of the science world. It can 0:24:38.760 --> 0:24:42.800 tremendously help the universities raise funds for peace laureates. It 0:24:42.880 --> 0:24:46.440 shines a light on the cause that they are advocating for. 0:24:46.840 --> 0:24:50.280 But there are some problems as well, and on the 0:24:50.320 --> 0:24:54.000 science side. Really a big problem is that scientific research 0:24:54.080 --> 0:24:58.159 is increasingly collaborative in nature, and so you don't have 0:24:58.280 --> 0:25:02.040 these loan geniuses anymore. And when you can only give 0:25:02.080 --> 0:25:04.879 the prize to up to three people, what do you 0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:07.280 do in cases where the science is actually the papers 0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:09.919 are written by hundreds, if not even thousands of people, 0:25:10.960 --> 0:25:14.399 so it can feel rather hard to sell, like who's 0:25:14.440 --> 0:25:17.119 the winner, why shouldn't another person get it? And then 0:25:17.280 --> 0:25:21.600 additionally you can see discoveries being made simultaneously by different teams, 0:25:22.280 --> 0:25:25.120 so they can feel unfair. Then also, one more thing 0:25:25.320 --> 0:25:27.240 is that there are a lot of fields where there 0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:32.119 is no Nobel Mathematics, computer science, climate, science. There is 0:25:32.160 --> 0:25:35.040 no Nobel Prize for these because these were not set 0:25:35.080 --> 0:25:37.960 out in the will of Alfred Nobel as the fields 0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:39.720 for which there should be a prize. 0:25:39.880 --> 0:25:43.520 My warm thanks to Bloomberg's Katty Poyan Paalo speaking to 0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:46.880 me from Norway as we think about the Nobel Prizes 0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:51.159 being awarded this year between the seventh and fourteenth of October. 0:25:51.760 --> 0:25:54.160 I'm Kline Hepke here in London and you can catch 0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:56.840 us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak you at beginning 0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:59.639 at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street. 0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:03.119 Tom, Thanks Caroline, And coming up on Bloomberg day Break Weekend, 0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:06.240 Japan's ruling party has a new leader. We'll discuss his 0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:07.760 defense policy approach. 0:26:08.080 --> 0:26:08.439 Next. 0:26:08.760 --> 0:26:22.880 I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 0:26:22.920 --> 0:26:24.960 day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top 0:26:25.000 --> 0:26:27.800 stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby 0:26:27.840 --> 0:26:31.639 in New York. Japan's ruling party has pict suregeru Ishiba 0:26:31.800 --> 0:26:34.400 as its new leader in a surprise result. Let's get 0:26:34.400 --> 0:26:37.720 to Bloomberg Daybreak Asia co host Brian Curtis to discuss 0:26:37.760 --> 0:26:40.280 more on Aeshiba's defense policy approach. 0:26:40.720 --> 0:26:44.480 Tom. Japan's new Prime Minister Shigoto Ishiba, floated the idea 0:26:44.640 --> 0:26:49.080 of an Asian NATO security apparatus that could deter aggression 0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:53.119 in the region. In essence, he believes that collective security 0:26:53.160 --> 0:26:57.200 works best when it is obligatory. It's a plan that's 0:26:57.359 --> 0:27:00.879 very much fraught with risk. China, for instance, has blasted 0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:03.880 the idea of such an alliance. The US itself has 0:27:03.920 --> 0:27:07.000 repeatedly said that it's not looking for the creation of 0:27:07.040 --> 0:27:12.200 an Asian NATO, and India's Foreign Minister su Ramanyam Jaishankar 0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:16.600 said that India is not sharing in this vision. So 0:27:16.680 --> 0:27:19.080 the odds might be against the idea in the short term, 0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:22.560 but nonetheless, Shigeto Ishiba has made it a top issue 0:27:22.840 --> 0:27:25.479 and the LDP did elect him to be their leader 0:27:25.760 --> 0:27:28.359 and he wants to explore it. As a result, we 0:27:28.480 --> 0:27:31.320 too would like to examine it more closely and work 0:27:31.400 --> 0:27:34.120 through some of the pros and cons of the framework. 0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:37.400 Joining us now on the program is Bill Ferries, Bloomberg 0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:41.680 Senior editor and Gerode Reedy, Bloomberg opinion columnist. To take 0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:44.800 a closer look, Bill, let me start with you. It's 0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:48.520 one of these ideas that seems perhaps good on paper, 0:27:48.680 --> 0:27:51.680 but might be very difficult to implement. 0:27:52.040 --> 0:27:55.040 If so, why well, I think when you look across Asia, 0:27:55.160 --> 0:27:57.359 I mean, if you're really taking this idea of a 0:27:57.520 --> 0:28:02.399 kind of a pan Asian security alliance seriously in the 0:28:02.400 --> 0:28:05.480 way that you see kind of a traditional NATO concept 0:28:05.480 --> 0:28:09.040 in Europe, there's some pretty big divergences in opinion in 0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:14.960 terms of how to approach China, whether to join these 0:28:15.080 --> 0:28:18.359 kind of blocks that might provoke China or might be 0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:22.200 seen as provoking China versus just trying to ensure your 0:28:22.200 --> 0:28:24.840 own collective defense. So, you know, I think we saw 0:28:24.880 --> 0:28:28.399 that most dramatically, perhaps over the last several years with 0:28:28.480 --> 0:28:33.200 the Philippines, which had a leader Rodrigo de Tte, who 0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:37.040 really kind of started to turn his back on the 0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:41.960 traditional US Philippines military alliance and really tried to work 0:28:41.960 --> 0:28:46.280 a lot more closely with China, including on things like 0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:49.840 the South China Sea. And then you have one election, 0:28:50.120 --> 0:28:54.280 and the Philippines foreign policy and its approach towards China 0:28:54.280 --> 0:28:56.560 and the US really went almost one hundred and eighty 0:28:56.600 --> 0:29:00.920 degrees in the opposite direction, where the US military started 0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:05.680 getting more access to Philippine military facilities, and there was 0:29:05.720 --> 0:29:08.920 a much stronger, tighter alliance. So I think when you 0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:11.760 look across Asia you do see kind of those differences. 0:29:11.840 --> 0:29:15.000 So whereas when you talk about NATO and Europe having 0:29:15.080 --> 0:29:18.720 I think it's thirty two members who are all agreed 0:29:18.760 --> 0:29:21.680 to come to each other's collective defense when attacked, it's 0:29:21.680 --> 0:29:24.160 a lot harder to imagine that kind of a framework 0:29:24.200 --> 0:29:29.360 in Asia. Would South Korea really come to Japan's defensive attacked? Well, 0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.800 you know some nations are they really interested in coming 0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:37.840 to Taiwan's defense, particularly if attacked. So that's one reason 0:29:37.880 --> 0:29:41.240 you just don't have more of the uniformity or views 0:29:41.280 --> 0:29:44.000 about the common threat that you do. You did when 0:29:44.040 --> 0:29:47.000 NATO was formed in the Soviet Union was looming over 0:29:47.120 --> 0:29:48.000 much of Europe. 0:29:48.240 --> 0:29:51.280 So Gerod we pose the idea at the beginning that 0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:54.640 this is something that Issiba wants. Why does he want 0:29:54.640 --> 0:29:58.040 it when it seems, as Bill suggested, so difficult to implement. 0:29:58.160 --> 0:29:59.800 I think that's a very good question, and to be honest, 0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:02.600 you know, I don't have a particularly good answer for this. 0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:06.160 Ishiba is to my knowledge, the only you know, major 0:30:06.200 --> 0:30:09.440 politician in Japan who is promoting this, and this is 0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:12.400 one of you know, one of his you know, policies 0:30:12.440 --> 0:30:15.840 that he has suggested. He's I mean, he outlined a 0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:18.200 long time ago as well as over a decade that 0:30:18.280 --> 0:30:21.800 he first sort of introduced the idea. But like a 0:30:21.840 --> 0:30:26.360 lot of Ishiba's policies, obviously, most people were not expecting 0:30:26.440 --> 0:30:30.360 him to win the election and become Prime minister, so 0:30:30.400 --> 0:30:32.760 a lot of people are having to deal with and suddenly, 0:30:32.800 --> 0:30:35.240 you know, look up what his policies actually are. And 0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:37.920 I think what a lot of people are finding, including myself, 0:30:38.440 --> 0:30:41.640 is that he has these ideas, but they aren't really 0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:45.600 fleshed out. There isn't a lot of substance to them. 0:30:45.640 --> 0:30:48.040 He talks about things like, you know, in terms of 0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:51.120 his domestic policy, you know, he talks about you know, 0:30:51.480 --> 0:30:54.640 revitalizing the regions. Okay, great idea, how do you go 0:30:54.680 --> 0:30:57.080 about that? He hasn't said how he's going to do that. 0:30:57.520 --> 0:31:00.400 In foreign policy, he talks about you know, Asian He 0:31:00.440 --> 0:31:04.680 also talks about you know, reviewing the you know, the 0:31:05.360 --> 0:31:08.560 security alliance with the US to make Japan a more 0:31:08.600 --> 0:31:12.400 equal partner. Ye again, fine idea, how are you actually 0:31:12.440 --> 0:31:14.400 going to go about that in practice? And I think, 0:31:14.440 --> 0:31:16.560 you know, when it comes to Asian NATO is like, 0:31:16.720 --> 0:31:19.480 assuming you did want to set this up, obviously, the 0:31:19.480 --> 0:31:21.360 first thing that you need is the involvement and the 0:31:21.400 --> 0:31:23.720 sign off of the United States, And when I thought, 0:31:23.840 --> 0:31:25.120 it's not really going anywhere. 0:31:25.600 --> 0:31:27.920 So it's difficult to get a real clear picture of 0:31:27.960 --> 0:31:30.120 exactly who he is and what he wants. He seems 0:31:30.160 --> 0:31:33.000 like an opposite, a polar opposite to the former Prime 0:31:33.040 --> 0:31:36.040 Minister Shinzo Abe, who is pretty successful. One of the 0:31:36.040 --> 0:31:38.680 things that Abbe really wanted was a strong Japan. It 0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:42.120 seems that Ishiba does not have that same ambition. Is 0:31:42.160 --> 0:31:45.080 that right? And how does that kind of figure into 0:31:45.280 --> 0:31:48.840 wanting some sort of formalized security alliance if you're not 0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:52.040 necessarily pushing for a very strong Japan itself. 0:31:52.240 --> 0:31:55.560 I think the difference between Ishuba and Abbe is that, Yeah, 0:31:55.640 --> 0:32:00.520 Abbe wanted a strong Japan that you know, projected. It's 0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:03.960 that are that had the ability to project its force, 0:32:04.160 --> 0:32:06.880 you know, so in line with what a large you know, 0:32:06.920 --> 0:32:09.480 what a large country and what a large economy it is. 0:32:09.720 --> 0:32:14.000 Ishiba seems a little bit more isolationist. Would would be 0:32:14.040 --> 0:32:17.120 taking it too far, but I do think he wants 0:32:17.600 --> 0:32:22.600 stability rather than you know, necessarily a Japan that can 0:32:22.720 --> 0:32:26.200 exert its influence further in the region. And I guess 0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:28.840 this is maybe where he has approached the idea of 0:32:29.000 --> 0:32:32.680 Asian NATO from in that he's not incorrect to point 0:32:32.720 --> 0:32:34.800 out that, you know, the reason that, you know, one 0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:36.760 of the reasons that the Ukraine was invaded in other 0:32:36.800 --> 0:32:39.200 countries haven't been invaded is because it wasn't a member 0:32:39.240 --> 0:32:42.360 of NATO and didn't have those security guarantees. So I 0:32:42.400 --> 0:32:45.080 think he is sort of a more like a safety 0:32:45.120 --> 0:32:49.520 first kind of approach, certainly compared to Abbe. And you know, 0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:51.720 as I say, like it is a fine idea to 0:32:51.760 --> 0:32:55.120 say collective self defense would decrease the risk of any 0:32:55.200 --> 0:32:58.680 one partner being involved. That's not an incorrect take to have, 0:32:59.080 --> 0:33:02.200 It's just how how do you get there? I don't 0:33:02.200 --> 0:33:05.320 believe he has articulated that within his own head, has 0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:06.200 he decided. 0:33:05.840 --> 0:33:09.200 That bill If he continues to talk about it, how 0:33:09.280 --> 0:33:12.760 much would this increase tensions with the United States? And 0:33:13.400 --> 0:33:15.840 I guess also part of that question is why would 0:33:15.880 --> 0:33:17.200 the US oppose it. 0:33:17.200 --> 0:33:20.440 It's interesting to have a leader in Japan who's espousing 0:33:20.480 --> 0:33:23.160 these views now because I will say it, in some 0:33:23.240 --> 0:33:27.080 ways it does dovetail with some of the trends that 0:33:27.120 --> 0:33:31.240 we've seen in terms of, you know, the geopolitics of 0:33:31.280 --> 0:33:34.160 the region. I mean, you've seen this trend over years 0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:37.480 of Japan seeming to be a little bit more comfortable 0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:42.680 promoting its own military kinds of missions, its military undertakes. 0:33:42.920 --> 0:33:45.440 I mean, we just saw, you know, a Japanese ship 0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:49.760 sailing through the Strait of Taiwan for the first time. 0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:54.600 We have seen this bigger embrace with the US. You know, 0:33:54.920 --> 0:33:58.520 Japan is now talking about improving some of its shipbuilding 0:33:58.640 --> 0:34:03.000 ship repair facility for visiting US Navy ships. So I 0:34:03.040 --> 0:34:05.440 think actually some of this, or quite a bit of 0:34:05.480 --> 0:34:08.920 it might dovetail quite well if you're sitting in Washington 0:34:09.120 --> 0:34:12.960 thinking about national security issues in Asia. I mean, you 0:34:14.760 --> 0:34:18.280 want to have more partners in the region doing more 0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:22.719 on defense, and frankly, it kind of dovetails well with 0:34:22.920 --> 0:34:25.279 talking about the US election. Whoever wins. I mean, I 0:34:25.320 --> 0:34:29.399 think there's been this Trumpification of foreign policy where there 0:34:29.440 --> 0:34:32.200 was a lot of questions about whether the US under 0:34:32.280 --> 0:34:35.560 Trump would really stand by some of these alliances. So 0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:39.240 I think what we have in Japan now is talk about, well, listen, 0:34:39.280 --> 0:34:41.439 we need to be able to do more on our own. 0:34:41.480 --> 0:34:43.640 We need to be stronger at home, and a lot 0:34:43.680 --> 0:34:46.480 of these policies, like building up the military budget, the 0:34:46.520 --> 0:34:49.759 defense budget, that plays into that. It also plays well 0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:53.960 into a more traditional foreign policy stance of the US 0:34:54.040 --> 0:34:56.399 wants to work with partners in Asia. So I think 0:34:56.400 --> 0:34:58.400 it's going to work pretty well with We're kind of 0:34:58.400 --> 0:34:59.920 regardless of who's in the White House. 0:35:01.040 --> 0:35:03.920 If there was some sort of security apparatus like this, 0:35:04.480 --> 0:35:06.839 it would reduce the cost of the United States bill 0:35:07.040 --> 0:35:09.640 in Asia, which might be seen as a good thing 0:35:09.719 --> 0:35:13.879 by some Republicans, I guess because Trump has been big 0:35:13.920 --> 0:35:17.040 on this. But would it diminish the influence of the 0:35:17.160 --> 0:35:19.399 United States in the region. Is that one reason why 0:35:19.440 --> 0:35:22.839 the US would be kind of careful about it. 0:35:23.320 --> 0:35:26.759 Well, yeah, I think. I mean it's a little bit 0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:29.880 of a hedge, I think on Japan's part, depending on 0:35:29.960 --> 0:35:32.759 you know, we've seen US policies. I talked about how 0:35:32.800 --> 0:35:36.319 the Philippines changed policy was with respect to China early on. 0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:38.640 I mean, we've seen, you know, the US drastically go 0:35:38.719 --> 0:35:42.759 in different directions in terms of how it approaches alliances. 0:35:42.840 --> 0:35:44.640 And you know, Donald Trump spent a lot of time 0:35:44.719 --> 0:35:49.680 saying Japan and South Korea just weren't spending enough on 0:35:49.760 --> 0:35:53.120 their collective defense. They weren't paying enough for US troops. 0:35:53.880 --> 0:35:56.560 So this is I think this approach we're seeing in 0:35:56.640 --> 0:35:59.120 Japan is a little bit of an insurance policy to 0:35:59.280 --> 0:36:01.960 kind of protect against that kind of a scenario. 0:36:02.080 --> 0:36:06.239 Gerod, you say that the LDP had to skew radical 0:36:06.960 --> 0:36:09.680 with this choice, and it did so, and you mentioned 0:36:09.719 --> 0:36:11.400 that you know, this is a bit of a surprise, 0:36:12.080 --> 0:36:14.880 So I guess it's kind of a radical idea to 0:36:14.960 --> 0:36:20.000 pick shigetto Ishiba. What else about him kind of tilts 0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:20.640 to radical. 0:36:20.880 --> 0:36:22.600 I think he nailed it kind of earlier in the 0:36:22.600 --> 0:36:25.440 conversation when you said that he's almost the anti Abbe 0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:29.040 so within the party for close to a decade now, 0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:33.560 he has been on the outskirts. Abbe famously defeated him 0:36:33.960 --> 0:36:37.800 in twenty twelve to become the leader of the LDP 0:36:37.920 --> 0:36:40.400 for the second time, and then shortly after that Abbe 0:36:40.440 --> 0:36:42.520 became Prime minister when they. 0:36:42.440 --> 0:36:43.040 Had the election. 0:36:43.239 --> 0:36:46.760 Ishiba initially was kind of like welcomed in to Abbe's cabinet, 0:36:46.800 --> 0:36:49.640 but he was always a sort of critical voice within it, 0:36:50.080 --> 0:36:53.160 and then since around twenty fifteen, or twenty sixteen, I 0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:55.319 can't remember exactly which. He has just been on the 0:36:55.360 --> 0:36:57.760 outside and not involved in power. 0:36:57.880 --> 0:36:58.080 You know. 0:36:58.120 --> 0:36:59.680 As a result of this, he has just become sort 0:36:59.719 --> 0:37:02.680 of more or a more critical voice within the LDP. 0:37:02.840 --> 0:37:05.200 There are many people within the LDP who consider him 0:37:05.239 --> 0:37:08.640 to be a traitor, not just for you know, being critical, 0:37:08.719 --> 0:37:11.080 but you know he left the party once in the 0:37:11.120 --> 0:37:14.600 nineteen nineties, only to come back to it later. I 0:37:14.640 --> 0:37:17.080 do think that in a different, you know, a more 0:37:17.200 --> 0:37:19.960 shall we say, a more normal leadership election, he would 0:37:20.000 --> 0:37:23.120 not have had a chance to win. It was only 0:37:23.200 --> 0:37:27.520 because the LDP is in such a bind between the 0:37:27.560 --> 0:37:33.520 slush fund scandal, unification church issue, and Keishida's own lack 0:37:33.560 --> 0:37:37.440 of popularity that they turned to someone like Ishiba, who is, 0:37:37.520 --> 0:37:41.560 as I say, represents completely different wing of the LDP 0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:45.759 to those that have dominated power for the last you know, 0:37:46.520 --> 0:37:50.480 over a decade. Obviously, Abbe came from the right, Kishita 0:37:50.600 --> 0:37:54.560 was more of a centrist, but without let's say, it's 0:37:54.560 --> 0:37:57.160 sort of like a strong vision. Ishiba's election very much 0:37:57.160 --> 0:37:59.959 turns the party to more of its you know, again, 0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:04.560 the more lift leaning side. Obviously, he's still a conservative 0:38:04.560 --> 0:38:07.520 politician and it's still a conservative party, but he represents 0:38:07.560 --> 0:38:09.799 a very very different side from what people might be. 0:38:09.840 --> 0:38:12.279 Us to grow. Thank you so much, Bill, You two, 0:38:12.480 --> 0:38:16.239 Gerode Reedy. There Bloomberg opinion columnists with us along with 0:38:16.239 --> 0:38:19.880 Bill Ferries, Bloomberg Senior Editor. I'm Brian Curtis, along with 0:38:19.960 --> 0:38:22.960 Doug Krisner. You can catch us every weekday here for 0:38:23.000 --> 0:38:26.360 Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at eight am in Hong Kong 0:38:26.440 --> 0:38:29.239 and eight pm on Wall Street. Tom. 0:38:29.560 --> 0:38:31.839 Thank you, Brian, and that does it for this edition 0:38:31.880 --> 0:38:34.759 of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning 0:38:34.760 --> 0:38:36.680 at five am Wall Street time for the latest on 0:38:36.840 --> 0:38:39.680 markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. 0:38:40.160 --> 0:38:43.280 I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. Top stories and global 0:38:43.320 --> 0:38:45.480 business headlines are coming up right now.