1004: Mailbag - Jordan Mason's Value, Elijah Arroyo's Outlook, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the LA Podcast with your host JJ Zachera j J zacher reefon what's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode one thousand and four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in football seasons right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings giving all customers it can't miss offer Draft one, Get one, Enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollars Bestball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of the fifteen million dollars, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. 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Eligibility restrictions apply void where prohibited. Answer the best Ball fifteen million dollars headliner contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars ENTR for you. Required reward expires in thirty days. See terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL dash Best Dashball sponsored by DK It's a mailbag week. Let's get to these questions. The first question is from Patroon is from Billy D and NC. It says, hey, JJ just started reviewing the twenty twenty five Draft Guide. Great work, thank you. My question is what are your detailed thoughts on Jordan Mason of Minnesota. He appears to be a great athlete in a very good situation, Yet you have him ranked as the thirty fifth best running back in your redraft rankings. Do you think he has a good chance of beating this ranking and his ADP? So my rankings have him around RB thirty five. Like you said, Fantasy pros ADP has meant RB thirty eight, So technically, from that perspective, I'm a head of the market. If I look at DraftKings Best Ball ADP, Mason's RB thirty, But I would argue that he's an archetype of player that's a little bit more attractive in a best ball environment. Now let's talk about why. So Mason's coming over from San Francisco and he joins Aaron Jones in that Minnesota backfield. Jones is older now, which makes me feel old, but he's on the wrong side of the age curve. Mason is right in his prime, and he's coming off an incredibly strong season on the ground. According to Next Gen Stats, among qualified running backs last year, only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley were better than Jordan Mason in rushing yards over expected per attempt, and Mason was seventh and yards after contact per attempt. And then we get these reports like the one that we saw earlier this week saying that their workload split Jordan Mason versus Aaron Jones is going to be relatively equal this year. So why have any difference in ADP between these two players if their workloads split is going to be even now. I talked about this a bit on becoming a Best Ball bro and then I brought it up in more depth within the Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter this week. But we have to do our own filtering when we get reports from beat writers. We can't just take what they say and not try to provide any context surrounding it. You know, I was going to do another question for this week's mail bag, but I think it plays into what I'm about to talk about here. It's from at the Dave from Work on Twitter, and it says, what guidelines do you find helpful when distinguishing between signal and noise. This time of year, everyone wants to find the next big thing in fantasy, but we also don't want to overreact to situational reps. Are guys playing in shells. So we get a report that says, hey, Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, they're essentially gonna split their work in half. But we're not asking about the perspective of who's writing that report. Generally speaking, the public and non fantasy football managers, they're not gonna care about receiving work as much as we should like. In a full PPR environment, a running back target since twenty fourteen, so not a reception but a target, it's been worth one and a half PPR points. A running back rush has been worth point six points. Even in standard formats where you get zero points per reception, targets are more valuable than rush attempts. I promise this is going somewhere. When I do my draft guide each year, one of the obvious consistent themes is that the market is always undervaluing pass catching at running back. If you can find a pass catching running back in the middle rounds, you generally will do well with that player. So let's look back at this Minnesota backfield. Someone says the backfield is gonna be fifty to fifty, but that's usually coming from the perspective of just general workload. They're not necessarily approaching this and saying this from the perspective of weighted opportunity. So we have to do our own analysis and place it on top. We know Jordan Mason is gonna be involved, but what type of role is he probably gonna play? What we know he was good on the ground last year, and he's been a good ground game running back throughout much of his career. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up out attempting Aaron Jones this year, Like, I think that's in his range of outcomes. But where my concern lies is on the pass catching side, something that doesn't get nearly as much focus with these headline reading discussions. Mason played college football at Georgia Tech, and he played alongside this pretty good running back named Jumior Gibbs. I don't know if you've ever heard of him. So we can forgive Mason for maybe not having the most robust receiving profile in the world while in college with that being said, his per route run efficiency was below average throughout that time. Then he gets to the NFL and he's been a pretty ineffective receiver in the NFL, even last season when he was playing in San Francisco's lead back and an offense where we know they're open minded about throwing the ball to the running back. Mason ended the year with fourteen total targets. He had a sub four percent target share per game rate. He had a yards perrout run rate of point five to four. He's been below average as a receiver. To kick off his career. What does Aaron Jones do well, He's a great receiver. It would make total sense to keep Jones in that role while Jordan Mason takes some more early down on stuff. So my stance on Mason is that he could see projection wise like forty five percent of Minnesota's running back rushes this year. Aaron Jones then sees a similar number, and then a handful of other guys kind of fill out from there, and Mason probably gets more goal line work than Aaron Jones does. When I say that Jordan Mason's gonna get goal line work, though, don't mistake that to mean that Jordan Mason is gonna see all of the rushing touchdowns for Minnesota. It just means that when they're close to the end zone, he's probably gonna be on the field and that's gonna give him a higher share of those rushing touchdowns. But my fear with upside with Mason is the pass catching, plain and simple. We don't see league winning players in fantasy football very often without that strong target share, So without it, I don't know if Mason really has that like strong RB two level to get to. He's not a bad pick, and I do think in best ball this is a totally different discussion, but he's not a clear cut target for me. He's just someone I'm at market with because the pass catching profile. This last questions for twitters from at Big Booty Max two, it says favorite Bears pass game weapon at cost. So here's my overall stance on Chicago. The Bears have a real shot to be a high variance team to start the season. I know that I mentioned as them having an easy passing schedule to start the year, and they do on paper. I talked about that earlier in the week. But to dig a little bit deeper into that if they do have some growing pains as in offense and with them facing some good pass rushes to start the year, I do think it's more of a high variant situation than an obvious great one, and I probably should have been more thorough with that earlier in the week, but that volatility may lead to some frustration early on with their passing attack and a managed league. Now with that being said, I mean, look, so much has already been said about Romadunze on this podcast throughout the offseason. People think I hate them because of episode nine hundred and ninety, but that's not even remotely the case. I just think he himself has a pretty wide range of outcomes, and I'm willing to lean into that more in Redraft than in Dynasty, whereas cost is higher, you can get Roma Dunsay right now for a low end wide receiver three high end wide receiver four price tag, when I don't think this is a situation where he's so clearly and obviously the wide receiver two on that team, where he's obviously behind DJ Moore, Like, would it shock anyone if Romadunza outscores DJ Moore this year? And if that happens. More is the clear obvious bad value versus the two players, at least in best ball right now, and the opportunity cost in getting more. It's a lot more significant because there's a lot of good wide receivers going in that range. And by saying all this, I'm not saying that DJ Moore is a bad pick. I'm saying that I like Roma Dunsay and his value more than DJ Moore in his The thing is, though I'm investing in this offense in general, I really like Colston Loveland and I like Luther Burden too. Loveland was an elite tight end prospect. He could easily run a ton of routes in that offense. This year, Burden, he's probably gonna be their slot guy. And that reliability in the shorter areas of the field. I think Caleb Williams really needed that last year. He needed some of those easier routs instead of playing hero ball. So I've got a lot of Roma Dunza and I'm trying to get a lot of Colston Lovelin and Luther Burden too, at least from a best Ball perspective, And of the players on that team, DJ Moore has been the one that I've gotten the least amount just because of costs. It's not that I hate him or anything. Overall. I'm buying into this bears offense because even with the hype, even with this steam, I don't think they're that costly. The sas questions from Patreon is from ranch dressing. It says, Hey, JJ, I know that we shouldn't be putting too much into training camp buzz, but am I wrong to be thinking about Elijah Arroyo as a possible tight end? One? It's possible he's a top two target in Seattle, plus the buzz, plus that he's young with possible high upside. What are some reasons you like him and or dislike him this season? Well, the reason to dislike him is because Seattle just might not use him the way we want them to use him. The idea behind rookie tight ends not being very good in fantasy, which has been a pretty popular idea basically into the last couple of years, it's actually not totally wrong, Like we don't see a ton of hits from the position from rookies, but that's largely just driven by the fact that teams don't give rookies a lot of routes, a lot of run. When they do, they've historically been absolutely fine, and we've seen that over the last couple of years with Brock Bauers and Sam Laporta, and I think that we should have at least some idea pretty early on in the season with Elijah Arroyo, Like, if Royo's getting zero run in week one, then you can probably let him go and just be quick off the waiver wire to pick him back up as the season goes on. But that means that you're taking him with a later round pick in order to see what you've got. I think there's nothing wrong with that. Now. The reason to be in on him, there were a couple of reasons. First, as you noted, he could climb this depth chart and imagine a scenario where either Cooper Cup or Jackson Smith and Jigba get banged up and they missed time. There's a legit path here that we shouldn't ignore, and we know having those paths at tight end is one of the key pieces for a breakout emerging Arroyo is also a really solid prospect had he tested and if he had good athletic measurables, I probably would have been talking about him the way that I'm talking about Terrence Ferguson. Now, I'm not into Ferguson in twenty twenty five, but I love Terrence Ferguson as a prospect in the Prospect Guy with the very quick blurbs that I write in the post draft version for these tight ends. For Arroyo, I wrote above average everywhere, like there's nothing that I can look at that shows that he's a questionable prospect. He just couldn't rank as an elite producer in the ZAP model because we didn't get testing numbers from him, And yeah, that's definitely something I want to work on next time. Now's not the time for that discussion. What I think the bottom line here is, I think Arroyo is a pretty good dart in season long manage leagues, especially if you've got a deeper bench and you're looking to draft two tight ends, like get someone like Tucker Kraft and pair them with Arroyo, do something like that. That kind of approach with a deeper bench makes plenty of sense. At the very least, have him ready to go off the waiver wire. There's a good tight end class, so don't be surprised if we see a few emerge this year. The last question this week is an email from Jack. It says, Hey, JJ, I'm wondering about TJ. Howkinson. On a Late Round Perspectives episode, you compared him to Greg Olsen, a mid round tight end who has taken in a similar range each year who isn't giving you much upside. In your draft guide, you mentioned his low target per route run and yards per rout run numbers last season as a cause for concern. However, history tells us the guy's coming off of those kinds of major in don't bounce back well in the immediate next season. Therefore, the injury could likely explain much of the dip in numbers that we saw from him. So if we assume that he's actually fully healthy and back to his prior explosiveness, why can't he be a top end tight end this season like he was in twenty twenty three when he tied for first in tight end points per game? Am I crazy to prefer him over George Kittle at cost? Thanks? Okay? So, first off, regarding the yards and targets per route run thing that was based on a trend, plenty of players are gonna have reasons for having good numbers or not having good numbers in their previous season. I'm looking at things in the guide at a positional level, at a high level. But here's the thing, I'd probably feel differently about last year if it was tremendously different than any other year that TJ. Hockinson has played in. Yes, his yards per out run was worse in twenty twenty four versus twenty twenty three twenty twenty three, when he had by far his best year as a pro, but it was more in life with almost every other season of his career. Now, that comment about Hawkinson and Greg Olsen, it just kind of popped into my head as I was talking to Jacob Sanderson on that episode of Perspectives. It was just meant to be a little fun comparison, but I actually do think that it kind of works. Hawkinson has never been an extremely efficient tight end, at least compared to the elite players at the position. His yards brought run has never been over two in any season of his career. It's actually almost always been around the one point six mark. When I'm talking higher end tight ends, I want that super high ceiling to be there you mentioned that hawk finishes the tight end one. In twenty twenty three, that was a year where he had fourteen point six PPR points per game. It's also the only time that he's been over the thirteen mark in his entire career. Minnesota that year ranked third in pass rate. They had over eighty more pass attempts that year than they did in twenty twenty four, and Hawkins that year saw almost a twenty four percent target share per game rate. Remember, in twenty twenty three, Justin Jefferson was injured. In games with Jefferson that year, Hawkinson averaged a target share per game rate of eighteen and a half percent, and he averaged twelve point five PPR points per game. That's not gonna cut it. That is not elite tight end production. It's just that without Justin Jefferson, Hawkinson's target share per game number rose from eighteen and a half percent to twenty nine percent. His PPR points per game was twelve and a half with Jefferson and sixteen point four without him. So not only did Hockinson still not have some elite yards per out run rate that year, but that was during a season where Justin Jefferson wasn't healthy last year, his target share it fell by over three percentage points per game. Now, was that partially due to injury? Probably? But does teammate competition play a role of courseween someone like Hackinson and George Kittle is that Kittle's been historically great on a per route run basis throughout his entire career. That means when volume fluctuates and there's not as much volume in that offense, he can still come through with some really beastly production. And when volume is there, George Kittle smashes like. Over the last three years, Hawkinson's played nineteen games where he hit a twenty percent target share or better. In those games, he averaged sixteen point two PPR points per game. George Kittle has twenty three of those contests, and in those contests he averages two full PPR points per game, more than TJ. Hockinson. Look, Hawkinson is capable of handling a lot of volume if need be, there is some contingent upside. I'm not denying that at all, But throwing to TJ. Hockinson, when you have Justin Jefferson on your team, that's not necessarily the most optimal way to run an offense. We know that justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison, they're gonna get theirs. Dolkinson might not see that twenty four percent target share without an injury to at least one of those players. And that's why I think overall, he's a player who should meet expectation, who's not like a horrible pick or something that you absolutely have to avoid. But I do question if TJ. Hockinson has a true league winning ceiling, and that, at the end of the day, is why the Greg Olsen comparison was made. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found and over to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly appreciate it. Make sure you're checking out the Late Round Draft Guy that's over on Lateround dot com. It's updated every Friday. You get new players to target, players to avoid Late Round dart throws, and updated rankings and tears. So check it out Lateround dot com. Have a great weekend. H.