Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Drafting Like You're Right?

00:00:01
Speaker 1: Hey, JJ, it was a great weekend for one JJ as spawn sunk a sixty four foot putt to win the US Open and more than four million dollars. Did you have any amazing triumphs over the weekend?

00:00:14
Speaker 2: No amazing triumphs. But but I gotta say this, US JJ's were in a fraternity. We root for other JJ's, We love other JJ's. So JJ Spawn's win low key kind of a win for me too. I'm JJ, and last year I tried my hardest to become a best ball bro.

00:00:33
Speaker 3: I drafted over five hundred teams.

00:00:35
Speaker 2: I talked to some of the most successful best ball players in existence, and I admittedly had mixed results.

00:00:40
Speaker 3: So this year, I'm going to chase that title once again.

00:00:43
Speaker 2: My plan is a max enter Draftings millionaire maker, and I'm going to document all of it while talking to the brightest best ball minds on the planet. Last year, I didn't quite get there.

00:00:53
Speaker 3: But this year this.

00:00:54
Speaker 2: Is going to be the year where I officially become a best ball bro. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. There's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long, and right now draftings giving all customers I can't miss offer draft one, get one and to re line up in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big.

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00:02:31
Speaker 3: Eligibility restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited.

00:02:34
Speaker 2: One per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars Headliner contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars entry for you. Required reward expires in thirty days. See terms at draftings dot com. Slash NFL Dash Best Dashball sponsored by dk Now back to the show. Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best Ball bro. I'm Jaja Zachareson, joined as always co host Rich Ryan Rich, same exact color T shirt as me today.

00:03:05
Speaker 3: How's it going, buddy?

00:03:06
Speaker 1: What was the joke from Mean Girls We've got espn Oh yeah, as soon as the camera As soon as the camera popped up and we looked at each other, we both fell out of our chairs because yes we are. We are twinning today.

00:03:17
Speaker 2: I was upset and I also people are gonna be able to green screen us with these shirts. I mean it's rough, but it is wild. We're not only wearing green shirts. Like the shade of green is pretty on point, and it wasn't planned. We're just it's like it's like we're a married couple at this point.

00:03:32
Speaker 1: That's right, We're You know how when people are close together for a long time they just start morphing into one another. Well, we're getting to that stage you and I.

00:03:40
Speaker 3: JJ yeah, yeah, you do that. Do you do that with your wife?

00:03:42
Speaker 2: Where you guys are about to go out to dinner or something and then you get changed and you're waiting on the couch or something, and she comes out and you're like wearing the exact same thing.

00:03:49
Speaker 1: It happens way more than you think, especially if you like the same color tones or patterns or anything like that. And then me, it's it's way easier for me to just switch, right. It's usually just like why shirt or something like that. Whereas you know, Jenna has done an amazing job getting up and I'm just like, okay, let me just make this five minutes and we can get that here.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, yes, not a ton going on with the intro today, And you know, with our show sheet, I feel like we've kind of talked about what's going on in the draftings, Best Ball World and my drafts, and nothing's really changed over the last week. But you can't prepare with a few guys that have shifted an ADP. So we can go through that a little bit, give a take, talk about it. You know, it's kind of a weird time in the NFL calendar where not a lot of stuff is happening, so there's not gonna be a lot of stuff to report.

00:04:37
Speaker 3: But let's get through some of these players.

00:04:40
Speaker 1: Mini camps are over. Teams now have a month to pray that their players don't do anything stupid or get hurt before they return for training camp. And yeah, we're we're believing or not already a month into this show. So I looked at some players who's ADP has adjusted, and the ones we're actually gonna look at have been the ones that have jumped up a lot this past week. And the two no brain are at the running back position, with JK. Dobbins and Nick Chubb signing with the Broncos and Texans, respectively. Dobbins up forty four spots the mid twelfth and Chubb up twenty four spots of full two rounds to the mid fifteenth. So I'd love to hear your opinion on them and then how it may be affecting how you approach both RJ. Harvey and Joe Mixon.

00:05:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I still think that Harvey and Mixon are going to fall a little bit further because you know, you have all of these drafts from an ADP perspective that had them in a certain position based on not having Dobbins, not having Chubb. It's gonna take a little bit of time for that ADP to truly truly follow my opinion to the right spot. And so I do think there's still there's still room for.

00:05:44
Speaker 3: Them to fall a little bit. You now, with Dobbins and Chubb.

00:05:47
Speaker 2: I'm not going after Chubb aggressively at the moment, but I think Dobbins is kind of an interesting get right now. And I've noticed in my drafts because the way that I set up my rankings for DraftKings and you guys can get these over Onreon if you want to. The way I set them up is I have my season long rankings and then I build a formula that merges those rankings with DraftKings ADP to give you a set of DraftKings rankings, and you know it adjusts for like wide receivers being a little bit more more important and all that good stuff, but it'll give you a set of rankings that's that's influenced by ADP. And the thing that has been a little bit frustrating for me that I've realized is that I'm way higher than the market on JK. Dobbins right now, but he's being pushed down by that ADP a little bit, and so I'm not getting I'm.

00:06:33
Speaker 3: Still not getting at like I want JK.

00:06:35
Speaker 2: Dobbins at this price point and where he's been going, and almost I could realistically make the case to get him in every draft because I think that right now in Denver, he's the clear cut RB two on that team. He's gonna see some early down work, He'll still see some long down and distance stuff. He has contingent upside, and that's a backfield that, as I've noted so many times now, Sean Payton in that backfield. Sean Payton as a head coach since twenty eleven, he's played, he's coached twelve seasons in the NFL, and he's never his teams have never ranked worse than six in running back target share, which is wild because it's not like he only had Darren Sproules and then Alvin Kamara. I mean he had mark Ingram in there a little bit who's not known for like being a crazy great pass catcher.

00:07:19
Speaker 3: Obviously.

00:07:20
Speaker 2: You know, last year, Javonte Williams ces seventy targets and the backfield was fifth in target share. Year before that, it was first in target share. So like, he's had a lot of different players come in and out of his backfields and they're still consistently top six, and we're gonna see that likely again.

00:07:36
Speaker 3: So R J.

00:07:37
Speaker 2: Harvey, I think, is going to settle in a place where I'm going to be drafting him, right.

00:07:41
Speaker 3: I want a piece of r. J. Harvey.

00:07:43
Speaker 2: You know, rookie running backs aren't bad bets in those middle rounds. And then on top of that, it's a really great situation, good offensive line up and coming quarterback, good system. Not a lot of secure pass catchers there either to play into the idea that this backfield can see a lot of.

00:07:58
Speaker 3: Looks through the air. But JK.

00:07:59
Speaker 2: Dobbins will still get some of that, Like he's still you know Dobbin's coming off a season where he had over a ten percent target chair and that was in an offense, in a great Roman offense that doesn't target running backs at that high a rate at all historically, And so I think Dobbins can still see some work.

00:08:12
Speaker 3: I like RJ.

00:08:13
Speaker 2: Harvey more, of course, but I think I think Dobbins should be ranked as like a high end four, low end three. And he's being ranked by you know, he's being drafted well after that right now, So there's contingent upside. There's a lot to like about just his usability week to week. I think he's a good zero RB target. When it comes to Nick Chubb, I just don't know if there's enough upside, Like even if I was thinking these scenarios, like, Okay, we're drafting handcuffs right like, we're in that in that range. We're getting back up running backs and we hope can give us some production. And Chubb might be able to give us some if he gets like five to eight carries a game, as like a change of pace type player or something like that. So Chubb can give us sum But if if Joe Mixon goes down, do we think Nick Chubb is a true bell calend that offense.

00:08:56
Speaker 3: Maybe the answer to that is yes. Maybe the answer to that is yes. I'm just thinking out loud here a little bit.

00:09:01
Speaker 2: I don't know, like I think that you can make the argument better for some other dart throwbacks, even like a Rico Dowdle or something for as like a you know, like like to the point where I'm not saying fade Chubb, I'm saying that we don't need to be quite so aggressive with him because I don't know if he would have the pass catching upside, which.

00:09:22
Speaker 3: He's never shown throughout his career.

00:09:24
Speaker 2: I don't know if he'd have the pass catching upside to like be that true bell cow. And so as a result of that, I'm not going to be overweight on Chubb, but I would be gladly overweight on JK.

00:09:34
Speaker 1: Dobbins. There's also the age and the wear and tear on Chubb, which, to be fair, Dobbins has as well, getting hurt again last year. But we're not far removed from Dobbins ripping off two hundred yard games to start the season last year and you taking arrows because you called him a Seal candidate and everyone thought that was that was nuts. To be fair, he had a very solid year nine hundred yards in the ground, nine touchdowns including that injury. So this is a guy who's doing it, as you know, as recent as last year in a very ambiguous backfield. So yeah, Dobbins is a guy I think we should be looking to scoop up. The other running back who jumped up a full round now, granted we're talking about late teens here, but into the late eighteenth round was Miles Sanders. And I'm assuming this is coming from folks who are looking at that Cowboys running back room and saying, Okay, they might grab one of these free agents, and now they haven't. I'm interested in this one round jump. I'm interested in your thoughts on Miles Sanders.

00:10:35
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:10:35
Speaker 2: Look, I've been doing live streams over on the YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late ROUNDFF and if you're listening to the audio version of this show, you can also see our green matching green shirts over on YouTube as well, so definitely check that out. But I've been doing live streams Best Ball drafts over on the YouTube channel over the last week and I'm gonna be doing them all summer.

00:10:56
Speaker 3: But it was funny because.

00:10:57
Speaker 2: Yesterday I did one, and I really I did like my team, but I had a Jayden Daniels team. I had stacked him with Terry McLaurin, and I wanted some Cowboys bringbacks and I did get Jake Ferguson as one, but I was I was hoping to at Miles Sanders in like the nineteenth round or something, you know, eighteenth round, and I got sniped literally right before I picked someone snipe me with Miles Sananders. I never thought in twenty twenty five I would be upset about being sniped with Miles Sanders. But look, I mean, he's getting some first team reps, and I think that's why people are at least intrigued and remembering that he's part of this backfield, because we've kind of just said, okay, it's probably Javonte Williams with Jayden Blue mixed in, which I still think is the likely outcome here. But you know, in this in this kind of environment where you do get those two extra round, especially on DK, you know where you are able to throw some more darts and kind of play around a little bit. I understand going after Miles Sanders. Crazier things have happened in fantasy football than Miles Sanders giving us like an RB four season. You know, like it's it's very possible in an offense that is fairly attractive and like you said, is ambiguous. So I've been trying to get a little bit more Sanders just based on the reports. You know, there's situations like this where you know, he was let's say, twentieth round pick a week ago, two weeks ago, and people weren't even thinking about drafting him, and.

00:12:18
Speaker 3: Now people are.

00:12:19
Speaker 2: I don't really mind still buying into that because he's still an eighteenth round pick. It's really not that big of a difference and not that big of a deal, and you're still getting you know, lower ownership, if you will, based on what happened, you know, the first like month of million maker season where people weren't drafting him. So there is still an edge on those teams that just didn't draft him at all, or those leagues that didn't draft him at all. If they didn't, you know, I'm still fine with drafting him at this point. Do I think Miles Sanders is gonna be a league winner or the league winner this year?

00:12:48
Speaker 3: Absolutely not. But I do think that he could hypothetically have some spiked weeks.

00:12:53
Speaker 1: Last week you said the tea leaves while you're reading them. Look like Daniel Jones is poised to be the starter and the market is starting to move in that direction. He's up almost a full round eleven spots to the mid sixteenth. I know you talked about him briefly, so touch upon Daniel Jones and then I'm more interested in Anthony Richardson down eight spots. Obviously, it makes sense to correlate with the jump up in Daniel Jones that the market would be cooler on Anthony Richardson. This is a player who is going late fourth rounds, and for obvious reasons, both situationally and performance based, he is no longer being seen as that type of player with that type of upside. But what sort of teams or builds or ever at all? JJ, are you clicking ar fifteen in drafts?

00:13:40
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean I'll say this.

00:13:43
Speaker 2: I haven't really taken him at all since since a lot of the news has dropped, just because we do have a scarce number of spots in our best ball lineups. And maybe this is the wrong approach, but I see it as you. I would much be much more inclined to throw that dart in season long at this point, Like if we were drafting our season long teams right now, I'd be throwing darts at.

00:14:05
Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson because there's still a chance that he starts.

00:14:08
Speaker 2: Sure, but even if he doesn't, you know, we we'll at least have a better idea closer to the season and we can just dump him or you know, figure out what to do there and then and then replace him in our lineup.

00:14:18
Speaker 3: We can't replace him in our lineup this.

00:14:19
Speaker 2: Time of year, and this time of year we have a lot more ambiguity about what roles players are going to play, and so as a result of that, it is a lot more it's a lot easier for me, at least mentally, to take random stabs at guys at running back and wide receiver where you know, we don't know what the how these backfields are truly you know, like Miles Sanders for instance, We don't know exactly how these backfields are really going to shape up.

00:14:44
Speaker 3: And like the way I also see it is if Anthony Richardson, if.

00:14:48
Speaker 2: It becomes more of a competition in July, it is his ADP really going to rise that much because it wasn't.

00:14:55
Speaker 1: Really that high to begin with. Yeah, you know, I was gonna. I don't want to bring up injury because that's no one wants to think about that. But let's say Daniel Jones wins Mega millions today, right, and he's like, I'm not gonna get my head caved in, I'm going to retire from football. Like what does Anthony Richardson's ADP balloon to kind of where Daniel Jones is right now, Like it's not, Yeah, it at.

00:15:17
Speaker 2: Least wouldn't go like, I don't think it would go substantially high. I'd probably actually be in on Anthony Richardson then, because I do think that the weekly rushing upside is attractive enough to like throw that dart, and we've seen the upside week to week when he has played.

00:15:29
Speaker 3: He has, you know, the rushing touchdown potential and all that stuff.

00:15:32
Speaker 2: But yeah, like I just given what we know in the likely scenarios, like the best case right now for Anthony Richardson looks like he's going to be in a competition with Daniel Jones. The median case looks like Daniel Jones is going to start the year as starter, like, I think that's the likely outcome at this point, right, and so if the best case scenario is a competition, then I have plenty of time from now in the middle of June until late July and into August to get Anthony Richards an exposure if I'm on top of the news, because I don't think that the ADP is going to like jump enough for me to regret not really drafting him that heavily right.

00:16:10
Speaker 3: Now, love it.

00:16:12
Speaker 1: I think we're probably the only humans of the planet that spent three minutes of content.

00:16:17
Speaker 3: To be fair. To be fair. This is a good segue to today's guest.

00:16:22
Speaker 2: We have Tyler Emo Cowboy on Twitter, one of the one of the better Twitter accounts out there, really fun follow He's a best ball player and streamer. We talk about what drafters do incorrectly and best ball. We talk about zero RB candidates, his favorite stacks. Which is the segue because he talked about.

00:16:42
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones a little bit, which is pretty interesting.

00:16:44
Speaker 2: Quarterback strategy a lot more. It was a great conversation with Tyler. So without further ado, here's that Internet, all right, Tyler. The question I want to start with here is that when you look at how best ball drafters just typically and generally draft, what's the one thing that you believe they do incorrectly sort of in some and all together.

00:17:13
Speaker 4: You know, this was a tough one. I never do good with pick one because I love you can pick I think the one that struck me the most when I look back the last few years of playing beast ball, I try to do like a lessons learned every offseason, and I'm like, what do I want to fix? What I want to adjust? And the thing I've been harping on lately is that I don't think we do a good enough job as drafters to like draft like we're right. We say that a lot, but I notice a lot. I see it in chats. I see it in you know, forums, discarder by talking about it. You get halfway through and too many teams are like, oh, well, what if I got this wrong? Let me it's I think drafting like you're right is so key because there's gonna be so much variance in chaos that happens over the course of a seventeen week season in fantasy. You know, we see it week to week all the time, but we get comfy that we're confident in how things are going to work out now, and the overconfidence thing is part of that aspect. But I think it's key that for that team, for that room, drafting like you've selected correctly and following through when when people talk about like telling a lineup story, I think part of the key of that is that it's consistent with how you're building it and you're trusting that you've hit on the right guys, You've you've attacked the right archetypes, or that you know the injuries or opportunities are going to benefit who you've added to this roster. You're not double counting or or getting like you know, oh, I need a third quarterback because of what about an injury? Well, draft like you're right, and if if a third quarterback comes up, that stacks cool. We know that that's good for the team. But you're not shoving something into a team because you're getting doubts halfway through the room. And I think that's easy for first timers, but also for people that like, you just get so much information throughout this offseason, and I think it's you start to kind of doubt or do anything like that, and that's just something I've noticed that, I'm like, I want to trust my construction and my players, then I've gotten it right and hope, you know, cards fallow where they may. But I've been challenging myself to, like, you know, quality over quantity at the positions that I've allocated correctly, and just trusting that, you know, like not just throwing something on because it makes me feel better. I'm going to challenge myself that I've gotten things correct thus far because we don't need to be perfect. We need to be close enough and then just get lucky. And I try to remind myself that because I am as someone that likes to be very precise, very accurate and nail everything, I'm just.

00:19:37
Speaker 2: Not Yeah, when you say that you should be drafting as if you're right, I'm assuming and I think people would have this question too, is that you're focused more on the early rounds of your draft and in the middle of your draft when you're saying something like that. So if you get through round like, is there a point in time where you know you're not in the late rounds necessarily covering your bases with what you did early, but you are drafting in the late rounds to just expand that portfolio and expand the range of outcomes and stuff of how your you know, your lineup can be effective based on what goes down in the season. But I'm assuming that what you're saying is more focused on those early rounds, And is there a point in time where you're not thinking about that as much?

00:20:18
Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely, Like if if I'm if I'm taking a lot of receivers early, I I'm gonna need less of them because I've I've allocated that if I took running backs early, I don't I don't need to feel like I'm getting left behind at RB three four five, because well, I've gotten two guys I trust that are my my my anchor points and and yeah, and and and as you and I think, one thing we don't do well enough is like like correlation, like mining that comes in a lot of different forms and formats, and what's still really important is just hitting on league winners. And we know that a lot of league winners come from these late round guys because of injuries, because of you know, unforeseen circumstances, and so giving ourselves as many at mining those and not getting distracted with trying to maybe you know backfill something that you know, we we already basically took care of, we filled out our starting lineup early on ideally, or we we we established this is where I want to be strongest, and now it's just addressing everything else as it's going really really And I think part of that also comes from like building a team backwards, Like as you're getting your early picks, you're starting to see where is this going to go? And every draft room is going to be differently, but yeah, like where's this going to go? And how is this going to fit into what I've already done?

00:21:32
Speaker 3: Right?

00:21:33
Speaker 4: And I think that allows you to be flexible as well with how those rooms play out, Yeah, because getting through those rooms might be tougher than others. You get in some really sharp rooms, and I think that's where you might feel like, oh man, am I getting left behind here? Just trust that you've you've allocated it correctly thus far and uh and it's kind of like, uh, you know, I I remember my dad like that how I got taught how to drive. It was like, hey, don't focus on right in front of you. That's how you get into erect That's how you're going to like miss something and keep looking like way ahead, several cars ahead, That's how you're going to get that bend. That's how you're gonna get that turn. And I think drafting like that with a next few rounds full thing, how do I want to see this roster play out as best I can? And I'm gonna veer through traffic as needed with with how I need to do that and not get hyper focused on like this round or this player. Those those are the drafts I feel most secure about. And I think if you're doing a portfolio, I think that's how you're gonna build the strongest portfolio can which is really the only way you can play this game, like to see results, you know, year over year. Yeah.

00:22:34
Speaker 2: I mean the example that I can go to is, you know, I did a live draft yesterday on YouTube, and you know, I went pretty wide receiver heavy. But David kitchen Co of Late Round Fantasy Football jumped into the same.

00:22:46
Speaker 3: Draft that I was in.

00:22:46
Speaker 2: I had no idea who was doing that, and he jumped in and he started Bijon and Devon Achan and then he didn't draft a running back for eight or nine, ten rounds. And obviously that goes back to what you're saying in terms of Okay, if you're getting Bijon and Devon a Chan, you have to assume that those players are going to perform at their cost or.

00:23:04
Speaker 3: You know, better than their cost type of pot right now.

00:23:06
Speaker 2: And so if Devon A Chan is twenty twenty five or twenty twenty four a Chan and Bijon is the RB one in fantasy football, then what do you need? I don't know, Tony Pollard, for you know, there's there's there's no need to really like force that.

00:23:19
Speaker 3: Into your into your lineup and into your structure.

00:23:21
Speaker 2: I think that's something that that I agree with that I learned pretty quickly last year and in doing this and going through this process. But I think that that a lot of folks, especially on draftings where things are a little bit.

00:23:31
Speaker 3: More wild, there's there's a there's a definite need for that.

00:23:36
Speaker 2: And speaking of what's going on over on DK, do you think that people are over valuing quarterback right now? I've asked this question to a lot of the guests I'm becoming a best ball bro gotten different answers from each one, I think, But I think it's a really interesting conversation because there's in one. In one breath, there's what the market is doing, and then the other breath there is what's actually optimal, and we have to kind of kind of mix those things.

00:24:00
Speaker 3: Together to figure out what's best for us. So how are you kind of approaching it?

00:24:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, And the more I thought about this question, the more I was left with yes and no. You know, DK has bonuses. It really rewards the guys that explode, and so for the elite guys, you know, I do feel like, compared the last few years of drafts, the elite guys aren't quite priced the way we've normally seen them. Usually one or two guys is priced extremely aggressively, slowly falls by the end of the summer, and then maybe they kind of, you know, settle in around the two three tournament three right now, you know, those guys haven't been priced like super aggressively early just yet. And so I think for those guys, we know that these dual threat guys that also possess super high passing ceilings are going to give us these huge outlier games on the ground and the air, and we know that DK scoring is very good for that. So I think for the early guys, I feel it's justified simply because it's also feels like a very flat tier for the positional guys outside of quarterback. So it's like, I see, I see the justification. You know, especially with quarterback scoring on these platforms is so powerful because it is a onesie position and for the guys that can truly separate, you know, it's it's huge. There's the opportunity cost aspect of that, because there could be some guys that you're not taking. When you take those early elite quarterbacks, they could provide you way better leverage at the running back or wide receiver position. There's a couple of guys I'm interested in, So when those guys are off, I'm comfortable saying, hey, I know, DK gets really weird with their quarterbacks, like they go, and so I will say for the mid tier, it is a little aggressive, and I think they are a little a little over their skis with trying to essentially catch up to the early guys going by pulling up these mid round guys. We see that happen in the real NFL, like contract wise, like not all of these guys are deserving, but the market's the market, and so the way I try to play that is I'm okay buying into the elite guys with these elit bonus ceilings, you know, hurts, and this year presents a really nice opportunity to buy, you know, arbitrage the cost by like a round and a half, sometimes two full rounds, and I'm very happy doing that. And then outside of that, trying to really push myself to say, let me and I as a drafter, I love arbitraging. You know, if I can get a similar type of profile much later, I'm trying to, you know, say that like, not only will your guy not hit expectation, but even if he does, but my guy way out performs it meets that. And then the guy I took, you know, it's like trying to match those you know, two v twos, those one v ones arbitraging. And so I do think, what the funny thing is, we've DK has pulled up this like very fine but a little overpriced middle tier, and then the next tier guys I'm really into because I'm like, these prices are pretty stable across all the other basketball platforms, because you know, we're just as market, We're not as sure. You know, it's not the most fun bets there's less certainty, and I think that it's a really fun way to say, Okay, if I do pass on these early guys, and I think are quite fine bets in and of themselves, the first three four guys, I'm gonna push it in wait to try to like just stack up these the Trevor Lawrences, the JJ McCarthy's, who's already now gotten more intensive than Trevor Lawrence. But like buying these guys that it's like I'm not just buying into a name. I'm buying into you know, systemically, there's a ceiling that wasn't previously there potentially for like outperforming touchdowns and pass yards. And so the way I'm kind of treating is like, hey, you're gonna be a little chaotic here with the mentier guys. I'm gonna attack this like third and fourth here because I'm comfortable not having the shiniest name on my roster, and I'm gonna attack it with you know volume. I'm probably gonna have three of these guys because I only need one a week. But for the playoff tournaments, I try to capture as many spikes as possible, and three quarterbacks allows me to do that. A little bit better than just the two, which I do think is prudent and optimal if you do take one of those early guys. But I think the worst than we could do is be buying into probably the worst price bets for like the middle rounds at quarterback, because it's just you're you're really you're losing to the early quarterback drafter and you're losing to the later quarterback drafter unless like, you know, your guy way out performance again, which would be historically pretty you know outlier.

00:28:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, exactly.

00:28:20
Speaker 2: That's the thing because this ties into a lot of the stuff that I've done with season long, where I think that the market oftentimes doesn't cluster quarterbacks the way they should cluster them in ADP and and like like it's it's far more linear, I should say, than it should be. Right where one quarterback is x spots better than the next quarterback, who's x spots better than the next quarterback, and so on and so forth, and when when instead what we should be looking at is there's a big four at quarterback, right if you like, I think Jalen Hurt should still be included in that in that group, And then you get to sort of this middle cluster, but that that from the Big four to that next cluster, it's pretty small in terms of the actual equity that you're giving up in the draft capitol. You're giving up the opportunity costs as you noted to get into that next group, which is why to me, I found myself like when like Josh Allen has fallen to the fourth round in some of my million maker drafts recently, and like yesterday in the live stream, I got Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts goes in the mid fifth oftentimes. And then obviously you know Burrow, who you know is more of that pocket passers, a little bit more volatile than some of those guys, is still.

00:29:25
Speaker 3: Going in that range. And then you know you.

00:29:27
Speaker 2: Get the the goth types and stuff that that you know, I've I've made it known that I am not into Jared Goff from a season long perspective. This year, I think it's a lot different obviously in best Ball because you're pairing quarterbacks with their pass catchers, and naturally that's just.

00:29:41
Speaker 3: Like I'm going to draft Jared Goff at times.

00:29:43
Speaker 2: But I think that there's like this really weird like like I think people don't realize that the chance that a Geno Smith or the chance that a Bryce Young outscores a high end QB two from an ADP perspective, that's more of a pocket passer type, it's actually not that that like it's it's it's not The odds aren't that bad for the Geno Smith and Bryce Young types, right? C. J. Stroud Like those those players who, you know, because of how we looked at them last year and because of how they performed last year, you know, we bump them down in the market. But realistically that pocket passer like tear and grouping should be massive and not as narrowed as the market seems to as clustered as the market you know, seems to push it. I do want to ask, though, about mobile quarterbacks versus non mobile quarterbacks in Best Ball, because something that I've sort of toyed with and you know, have research a little bit is the fact that, like, the reason we love mobile quarterbacks in season long is because we're getting that really nice, predictable floor from them, and then if they give us a good passing season in some way and we get these unicorns. Now we have Lamar Jackson Josh Allen, Jane Daniels hopefully, and then Jalen.

00:31:01
Speaker 3: Hurts they can post pretty good.

00:31:03
Speaker 2: Passing numbers while also posting good rushing numbers, but the rushing numbers are really getting, you know, justin fields into the conversation every week regardless of how good or bad his pass numbers are. That's like the Torell Prior of old you know, way way back in the day and Tim Tebow and these guys who were giving you some sort of ground game work but maybe not a ton through the air, but in best ball since you're not having to predict that output, do you think that pocket passers might actually be a little I don't want to say undervalue necessarily by the market, but are they at least more viable? And maybe we shouldn't be targeting the mobile quarterbacks as heavily or is there's still you know, a lot of a lot of good and targeting the mobile quarterbacks because from a season long perspective, we do know who those mobile quarterbacks are going to be.

00:31:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is a fun question because I think at the end of the day, it's kind of like it depends, right, because there's there are different types of mobile quarterbacks there are there are your your Burrows, your Strouds, your dacks that they can scamper for twenty or thirty yards, your random touchdown right now and then, and then you've got pocket passers like Stafford that you know, if you want to take his weekly prop of under one and a half rushing yards, which I did often last year, you know, it's like, so you've got you've got different tiers of those mobile guys. I would say that like it's price driven, right, because I think at a certain point, rushing without a pass ceiling isn't as fruitful for like total projected points, Like you're you're really just hoping for the volatile output, and how much different is that then hoping for the volative output of a pocket passer that doesn't often, you know, exceed three hundred passing yards and three touchdowns to do so. So I think at the end of the day, I still find them a super strong target because I think they're one of the easiest bets to outproduce their ADP simply because they just rush for more touchdowns and yards than we thought. And that can happen a variety of ways. If there are like a high rushing quarterback. I think one of the ways to do that, and there's been a lot of great, you know, studies that have been on this is just like rookie and early year, early career quarterbacks, we just do those guys tend to scramble more often, and then for a lot of them, it really ticks down historically over the rest of their career, you know, anecdotally, as they learn more of the offense, they become a more accurate passer, with better footwork, better timing in the system, more confidence in the pass plays, et cetera. And then even just like protecting themselves, like being able to like you know, control the hits and all things like that. So I think one of the reasons I still want to go after these rushing guys is because typically, you know, they don't project as good of passers, and if they're a much better passer than we think, then like this huge Jayan Daniels a great example, Like I still thought his price was super friendly just because of the rushing and collegiately we saw a very very shockingly good passer deep and from an accuracy standpoint, and if the market was deciding this is just a running quarterback. You know we're gonna, we're gonna. If the market's gonna undervalue a rusher's passing ceiling that we have confidence could be much stronger than it is, then I think that's even a better bet. But then in the fields example, we've got a lot of data that field is a pretty bad passer, and the and the offense then structurally is limited because we're rarely going to see games where he's got a lot of pass attempts, whereas a competent passer has more access to those like high pass volume games where he also adds with his legs. So I think I think it's I like digging in the weeds on these you know, every player and every instance in them in themselves, and so I do think blanket statement rusher, I think we tend to overstate what that really means. And I think also like not every coaching staff is buying that. I think I think a really good example that was, like Herbert last year, the market was two down on h and myself included on like what the pass rate could truly be in this offense with these pieces. But then Greg Roman, a coach that had no problem utilizing his quarterbacks legs historically and a quarterback we'd seen have in his rookie season a pretty nice rushing floor and then collegiately being a strong rusher, and then you know, all those pieces coming together were like he had some of his highest ceiling games because he was able to unlock that next ceiling with this rushing work. And so I do think it's it's these are absolutely gonna be targets, and I think it's a better thing to be, Like, if I don't have a strong lean on these guys, I think to maybe split hairs and do a tier, because ultimately best ball is about ceiling, right, and just guys that can access ceiling are gonna be a higher ceiling are gonna be much more powerful. And at the end of the day, the rushers are just gonna be able to do that because of volatility. And it also makes them easier to not have to stack, right, Like if a guy does have a rushing component to it, he can get there without carrying along a lot of his other guys. And I think in DK specifically, you know it's gonna be hard to correlate, it's gonna be hard to stack, and one of the ways you can ALLEVI your alleviate yourself of trying to reach out of structure, out of adp to do so regular bases is just saying that, like, I don't need to have a bunch of stack guys with these mobile, mobile aspect quarterbacks, and to me, that alleviates the stress of having to kind of nail the puzzle all the time.

00:36:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really good point too, especially over on DraftKings where people won't be afraid to take naked burrow and you know, people won't be afraid to just randomly grab and ruin your stack, and so getting that mobile quarterback, you know, like yesterday that that Jade Daniels team.

00:36:27
Speaker 3: I actually drafted a Jade Daniels.

00:36:28
Speaker 2: Team today, I should say, and I paired him with Justin Fields because he fell a little bit.

00:36:32
Speaker 3: But I happened to have Garrett Wilson.

00:36:33
Speaker 2: But I didn't feel forced to get other New York Jets players, you know, like I could get a Josh Reynolds in the last round or something like that, but if the bill doesn't fit, I'm not going to force something like that, just because I know that Fields can do it on his own.

00:36:46
Speaker 3: But this is also why like I think all.

00:36:48
Speaker 2: Of that discussion that you just talked about is why at least early on and you know, his ADP has crept up a little bit. But like Drake May was sort of that like obvious guy for me, where he has that rushing floor, but the passing ceiling, I think to the market is a little bit questionable. Like the rushing ceiling isn't as questionable as a passing one, but what if things just go like like, he's very capable, obviously, and so what if there's an instance a week, multiple weeks, the whole season where we're just getting that passing projection wrong. That's why the mobile stuff is so important on the predictability front, because we know that they at least have that baseline and then there's that ability for those spikes, you know, based on the passing volatility.

00:37:29
Speaker 3: Let's move on to running back.

00:37:30
Speaker 2: Do you think that we can get away with zero r B a little bit more on draftings than on some of the half PPR platforms.

00:37:36
Speaker 4: Absolutely, because like the guys that get passes it, it counts more, right, Like it's it's hard to tell yourself a story on the half point sites that like it's like okay, cool, like three targets, Like if he's not getting a red zone roll, it's really hard to Uh, it's it's just about keeping pace right. So like with PPR and then with bonuses, it is more viable, Like your Taja spears for instance, become way more attractive at cost because you know you're getting you're getting full points for those those three to four targets and receptions a game with whatever he gets on top. Whereas you know, it's like you really need the contingent upside of getting some goal line work or getting all the work for these guys, so truly matter to keep pace with. You know, your your running backs going in the first few rounds that are seeing this eighty plus percent workload, and you know in beastball and in zero RB, the whole thesis is like your receivers are just super strong, very stutely. You're stronger at quarterback and tight end, and you're just trying to like keep pace RB one, R B two. Well, when you're getting points for any and all work they're getting, and everybody complains about PPR right like it's a fake scoring. You know, why are we rewarding this one catch for zero yards? Well, Jonathan Taylor barrels through five men for ten manly yards, and it's like, well, it scored the same, and so I would love these screens for no yards if it's gonna help me keep pace.

00:38:56
Speaker 3: Ye.

00:38:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like I find myself dabbling more with that because I find that on DK, because like there's more like like Derrick Henry every year for whatever reason. And the reason is, I guess they just know more than I do. Goes higher than on the half PPR sites, even though he doesn't catch passes. And then it's like, and I think it's funny that PPR, you know, the market on DK tends to not like these guys as much as they should. Raseean White another great example. His price is almost exactly the same on half PPR sites it is on DK, despite his profile being much stronger. Yeah, it's like if he gets almost no rushing work, but he's getting four to five targets a game and you know, getting his twenty to thirty yards, Like, he's extremely mispriced, you know, in a in a really good offense.

00:39:43
Speaker 3: And with contingent upside too.

00:39:46
Speaker 4: Everybody likes to ignore that. Now, JJ, I don't think we're allowed to say that Rashade White has continent upside and Sean Tucker alone is what I've been told, right right, right, Well.

00:39:56
Speaker 3: That's the thing.

00:39:56
Speaker 2: Like, like the other piece to that with these pass catching backs mentioned ATase Spears are Rashad White, those guys in a regular season long league because obviously a lot of people listening to this, you guys are gonna be coming from season long environments and maybe you're trying to play best ball a little bit in.

00:40:11
Speaker 3: A regular season long league.

00:40:13
Speaker 2: They're not as attractive as they are in my opinion in this kind of format because they're going to be gamescript dependent on a week to week basis, Right, Like a guy like Tajy Spears is gonna see the field a lot more when when Tennessee's trailing big right, or a player like Justice Hill.

00:40:27
Speaker 3: Right, another player who I've thrown plenty of darts at in these drafts because we know we have we have.

00:40:33
Speaker 2: We saw it last year where not only can Justice Hill give us a decent weekly ceiling.

00:40:39
Speaker 3: But when the Ravens are trailing, they're.

00:40:42
Speaker 2: Using Justice Hill, They're not using Derrick Henry, right, And that's the way, Like, that's why Austin Eckler has become my number one I think he's my number one exposed player right now, just in general, because again you get a player Eckler I think is even a little bit different and better than the two that I just mentioned, because he might have some standalone predictive value in his offense, but even still, like when they trail, chances are so I me Brian Robinson on the field, you know, And so there's upside in that unpredictability for best Ball, whereas you know, because a lot of this stuff is going to translate, Okay, how am I ranking these guys in season long? Okay, let's translate this over to to best ball. But you have to think about the the at least this is how I.

00:41:21
Speaker 3: Think of it.

00:41:21
Speaker 2: Maybe you can, you can agree or disagree, but I think of it as like, Okay, well what am I actually predicting from season long to best Ball week to week? And this is one of those instances where I think you can find an edge because you're not having to predict that game script compote.

00:41:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you're exactly right. Zero RBN season long is so dependent on because you're doing starts it did I get the guy that's filling in this week? Do I have enough shots to get one guy every week that's filling in? Otherwise I'm I'm praying for it.

00:41:50
Speaker 3: You are not having a great time in that argument exactly.

00:41:52
Speaker 4: And when in bestball, yeah, we don't have to choose when they're going, and so we benefit from the chaos. We benefit if the main guy ahead is just I think it's especially prudent to kind of look at contextual data to give us stronger takes for instance, you know, strength to schedule for like pass and rush defensive stuff. If we're looking at like, hey, this team's gonna get off to like a projected a really rough start against some really strong defenses early, okay, then maybe that makes the RB two a more attractive piece to add into my zero RB or hero RB build, right, because you know, if that's gonna be a tough defense, well then not all. And that's another key point I like to do with these drafts is how can I not only be right. You know, my guy is hitting, but it's coming at the cost of someone else, either in my room or in my playoff pod. And so like that's what these RB two's that we've mentioned allow us to do is like if they're if the starter is getting gamescript kind of written out, well, then hopefully my guy's benefiting and now I'm lapping him because you're you're the score you got there is almost useless and my So it's like being able to kind of stack those things is really really key and just and that. And we've talked about targets being more valuable than carries every year when we analyze, and it's like, so, yeah, the zero RB targets on DK are just much more attractive. I think the only way you do it poorly is types of archetypes. We don't only want to like the pass catchers are not the only valuable guys that have guys that can just take the full role, you know, like for for years James White was a nice little PPR hack, but you'd still rather have like, you know, the years where you're getting the guy that's like James Blunt just being shoved into the line for touch. Jamal Williams. Jamal Williams is an awesome zero RB target his year, not because he caught passes, just like, hey, if he's going to be utilized in the goal line. So it's like I think The way to really weaponize zero RB is to nix and match and types of archetypes. You know, follow are they are?

00:43:49
Speaker 3: They like?

00:43:50
Speaker 4: Is this just like a pass special? They're a goombo walle and great example. He is always used for whatever reason as like this little scat back and two minute drill stuff. He's not as valuable as a Mashad White or a TAJ who have that full game. They have a pass catching role. So it's like, you know, can't can it help? Sure? But how much does it help? And then you know who are what's the true upside? Can this guy go from some standalone value with full contingent or not? And then if not, you probably don't want to be too heavily exposed to that guy in your in your portfolio versus some of these you know, the charbonnais the Whites that could take the full backfield if it breaks right.

00:44:29
Speaker 3: Do you have any favorites so you've been going to?

00:44:31
Speaker 2: I know you just named a bunch of them, but do you have a few that you've been going to with your zero RB builds?

00:44:36
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, I love sharbon A and the the the Walker Ankle news hitting lately is just even and somehow Sharmon is also falling, and it's like, I don't understand that, and I know, early season, injury, whatever, but everybody else falls and rises based on JK. Dobbins has gotten a lot more expensive, but he was a really fun guy and he might still be priced fine because.

00:44:57
Speaker 2: He's still to me, the problem with Dobbins that I found is that I have him ranked well ahead of the market, but I always forget about him because I'm merging my rankings with ADP a bit to make sure that and then I'm like, oh, man, like I because I don't want to be like too too far ahead right with my with my rankings and stuff. But uh, yeah, he's he's still at a reasonable price. I agree, it's crazy.

00:45:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was asking some of my co hosts, like last week, I'm like, maybe the good exercise now is a riser. How high would you take them, like in August? How high would we be comfortable taking them? Yeah, and if we can all come to a consensus on that, when we get to that range of the draft, let's look at who's available and say or if we're going to take him here, because if his adp ends up there, then you're you're taking him at ADP right, and market seems pretty aggressive on pricing out there, so I I don't, Yeah, I don't have a good case to make against that. So yeah, guys like that. I mean, I I love Hill, especially on DK because like you know, Keaton Mitchell, good health news, all that good stuff.

00:45:54
Speaker 3: Cool.

00:45:54
Speaker 4: But as you've mentioned, like Hill has a pass role in this Todd munkin offense, and I think we were all pretty surprise some of the games he saw as many targets as he did last year. And you know, you know, the last few seasons helped predict the next few seasons, and like what we can expect to see out of this if we're talking like super late, guys like drum Ford are still appealing to me for that pass catch role if the offense is bad and the line is bad, and if you know, the fantasy savior himself, Joe Flacco comes in with just a ton of pass volume and then a guy like Ford could you know, get that work. Jugkins not the strongest pass catcher profile, neither is Samson. Ford still in the field. Like, I don't mind buying gross names late in drafts because the markets just pricing them like they've got nothing to add, and I've seen them have plenty to add in multiple phases of the game. And so until I see that that's like just a bad bet, I have a hard time not going back to the well when it's especially that cheap.

00:46:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jerome Ford feels like a really good litmus test where like to me, I almost think and I could be totally wrong with this take, becausebviously anything can happen, and teams can deploy their running backs in different ways and stuff. But my stance on Jerome Ford from like a best ball, Like I'm not gonna put him as like a dart throw in my draft guide.

00:47:10
Speaker 3: Or anything like that. But my stance on Jerome Ford is that Dylan Samson is the best thing that happened to Jerome Ford's value because too, because.

00:47:17
Speaker 2: I think that I think that people are making the assumption that Sampson would just play that hurry up, you know, two minute offense, you know, pass catching role given his size he's very shifty and agile, But Samson was not much of a pass catcher in college. I see Samson as like a pure change of pace rotate with with Judkins. Maybe you know, every every three or four drives or what have you, and then Ford would be that that pass catcher that they have for this year.

00:47:44
Speaker 3: And to me it fits pretty well with as a trio right like together.

00:47:49
Speaker 2: Where Ford then is going to get like sort of those like higher leverage and more important looks through the air.

00:47:55
Speaker 4: Yeah. I don't know if people are aware of this, but Dylan Samson's probably better than p are strong and as your third running back and a rotation that seems like a good thing. But yeah, we've seen Stefanski kind of like I have roles for guys, and my own popular opinion is like, simplistically, if Ford and Hunt were used to split roles with the great Nick Chubb during his prime peak physical I'm not so sure they go absolutely away from that, like like that philosophy, but also the same players there. And I know Ford gets a lot of crap, but like, the dude has been really banged up hamstring and ankle every year he's played, and even still he's popped in the Fantasy playoffs with like twenty plus point games and we've seen explosive plays sixty yard touchdown in the playoffs last year. So yeah, I have a hard time going away from guys that it's just like I think we're just we're considering them dust. And I don't agree with that sentiment, because even if they're not fun, if the coaching staff trusts them and the game breaks the right way, you know, again, I don't have to get too much right. And so it's like, especially at car and along those same lines, Chuba feels maybe like the most dead zone type of classic back in this year. So I'm having a hard time not having a ton of Rico just with they brought him in, they paid him all right, and they talk about we want to run the piss out of the ball. Dave Canallis just loves the running running game, and he talked about using both guys, you know, simultaneously in all facets of the game. Rico was a fine enough passcatcher last year, and he's now cheaper than he was against Zeke last year on the Cowboys, and you could argue that like potentially the line and the run scheme, it would be better this year in Carolina than it was for Rico in Dallas. And then just contingent upside, if we're just talking pure RB two handcuff once again, the market has decided a fourth round rookie running back is a reason to not be on a very capable vet who has demonstrated good, good efficiency in both facets of the rush and the run. So I like that, and then when it just comes to like disgusting darts, I love nothing more than taking disgusting running back darts late. So like Sanders Madison, Eli Mitchell, and even like Ty Johnson, like on DK, just like guys that have roles, Ty Johnson's probably like more of that type of like there's a very specific role for him.

00:50:17
Speaker 3: Like type kind of guy, but in a way better offense, on the top three offense.

00:50:22
Speaker 4: I mean, I think we were all shocked when Ty Johnson had two games of twenty yard passes running a post route in the ends, and you're just.

00:50:28
Speaker 2: Like, what, Yeah, he's a good, like a really solid player what he does.

00:50:34
Speaker 4: He's been a very good pass catcher when it was a bad Jets team. And now Ty Johnson's the reason why I'm not loading up on Ray Davis because Ray Adbison blow me away. And now it's like, oh, they're just gonna use all three guys, and okay, but then you know, if I need like true zero RB. I'm like, well, there's there's worse starts to throw than an RB and a very good offense.

00:50:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I like that you brought up Chuba too, because he was to the poster child for the yards per out run study that I did recently, where I looked at middle round running backs who you know, if you look at their previous season yards pro out run, if it's low, they tend to not repeat or see good target shares the following season.

00:51:13
Speaker 3: And Tuba had like a twelve ish percent target share per game rate last year, eleven to twelve percent. What did the Panthers go out and new They draft Trevor Etn They signed Rico Dowdle, two very capable pass catching backs. So yeah, he's someone that I've had a hard time with as well.

00:51:25
Speaker 2: And it's it's not a popular opinion either, Like people really like Cuba and so it's a difficult one to kind of go out and hang your hat on. But I'm with you that I'd rather get like a double at cost than Cuba at costs. Are there any other like earl ish round running backs you seem to be fading? Or is Cuba just like the main guy for you.

00:51:43
Speaker 4: No, Like I'm having a hard time with Chase Brown. Yeah. I spent some time talking to Joe Goodberry, who you know, awesome follow for all all bingle stuff, and I'm like, I'm like, how is this Chase Brown stuff working? Because like all the coach speak is like, oh, we love him, what a great guy. We don't know that we're want to use him in the past down a great guy and you know, first and second down and then you know we'll get the guys that fit in. I'm like, so is your is he your workhorse season not? And then also it's odd that he is a fine pass catcher, but you're looking at him as like a first and second down guy since it's not my favorite where it's like, yeah, I don't you know p Ryan and you know in company it's not the strongest competition, but it's a team that is not minded like splitting the workload with guys that aren't you know, all that talented. We saw p Ran be a thorn and Mixon you know a few years back when pe Terryan had his huge season. So it's like I don't love that I might have a game script dependent RB in the third round that the coaching staff seems like just really really like they're like, we don't like how the second half of the season, like you know, if it happens, fine, but like you'd rather not. I'm like, okay, well then I don't know if I want to invest a third round pick in that.

00:52:51
Speaker 2: I feel similarly to the way that just going back to Chuba Hubbard, I feel like it's not unlike the Chewbe of Hubbard situation, where like we're sitting here, we're talking about the added bodies to the line of backfield, and if you look at what they had last year, of.

00:53:03
Speaker 3: Course they're going to feed Chebe Hubbard.

00:53:04
Speaker 2: And it has nothing to do with like I think Tuba is fine, Like he's a good running back like that. I'm not trying to take anything away from there, but a lot of these coaching staffs, you have to look at what they were actually working with in that previous season, yeah, and then what they're working with now and see how some of these pieces might fit together in some way. And so I understand the logic behind the Chase Brown thing. I think that he's a really really volatile piece, at least at the very least.

00:53:27
Speaker 4: You could still want to have none because of the offense, but it's hard to stay like this is a great stand you could.

00:53:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could see the upside, but then there's also there's also the scary like, Okay, is he really going to maintain what he did you know towards the end of last year with that that kind of work share and backfield share, It's that's tough.

00:53:44
Speaker 3: Who are your favorite stacks on draftings?

00:53:46
Speaker 2: This is a question that you know, I'm trying to get a little bit more player takey with these shows because people want to obviously know who to draft and not just this philosophical stuff all the time.

00:53:54
Speaker 3: But right, who are some of your favorite stacks on DK?

00:53:57
Speaker 4: I like to just try to target these underrated offense is when I can so like like Jacksonville outside of Brian Thomas Junior, Like you know, Travis Hunter is following, there's a there's a ton of fud for him. And again I'm happy to just say like, I don't I don't know how right I have to be about the second overall pick on a guy that sounds like he's working eighty plus percent on offense early and a Liam Cohen offense. Yeah, you know, have the and same thing with like Trevor Lawrence is like, is he my favorite player of all time? You know? No, you know, is it looking like the best draft pick you know at quarterback way back when outside of real football, we've seen Cohen really transform these guys, and I want in on if that, you know, materialize, because it's being priced like it's not. Yeah, And that comes with like I didn't love Diamie Brown in these stacks early on, but it does sound like now they're not just treating him as like a vertical weapon. They're trying to get him involved in like the short crosser stuff, which to me, I'm like, okay, that makes him less volatile to like fill out a Lawrence stacked strange. You know, I like, I have no problem backstacking t Lawrence because the rbs are cheap, the tight end and the wide receiver three are cheap. And if this is a very good offense, we're looking at all those guys beating price and then just if those are the guys that spiking the touchdowns in the playoff weeks, you're also leveraging off of the BTJ and Travis Hunter early drafters, and Lawrence has this like, you know, semi rushing for type of stuff, But I think that's also just a good off if if Liam Cohen's giving everybody opportunities to catch short area stuff, that feels like it's good for everybody to be able to boost the completion rate and give more easy button for an offense that hasn't had a lot of easy buttons. Outside of that, I have a hard time not sacking Tampa Bay just because I like Godwin. I like the back half production that like could happen, especially on PPR sites. Baker's definitely a little overpriced, but we've also just seen that he and this this head coaching staff are fine being very aggressive, especially the pass and you know the scrambleed rate was way higher last year. But he does have, you know, really good rushing stuff. And Egbuka, I I love like first round talent right outside the top one hundred who at minimum could be wide receiver three in a top twelve pass offense and at best contingent value if Godwin or Evans miss any time.

00:56:12
Speaker 2: Do you think Igbuka And I hate to bring this up because people are just gonna yell at me after bringing this up again, do you think that Agbuka's price on just in general right now is a reflection on what happened with.

00:56:24
Speaker 3: Romadunzay last year.

00:56:26
Speaker 2: And do you see the connection of like crowded wide receiver room didn't live.

00:56:31
Speaker 3: Up to the hype, et cetera, et cetera.

00:56:33
Speaker 2: Because what's strange to me is he's cheaper than where A Donsday was drafted last year. But you could argue from a stability perspective, it's better for him because right now we have Godwin as a question mark as to how healthy he's going to be to start the year. But also even if Godwin's healthy, similar to you know, we assume that DJ More and Keenan Allen would be healthy, and yeah, Godwin and Evans are better than DJ Moore and Keenan Allen when healthy, but you didn't have the question mark at quarterback at all. Right, You Like, we feel very very good about Tampa Bay being a top ten offense and I.

00:57:06
Speaker 4: Think it's I think it's the market was really excited about Kayla Williams, and they had every right to be. You know, he had like a very interesting prospect, had some you know, red flags. I think they were really down on Keenan Allen. I think part of that is in the market, and also it seems like the market is refusing to move away from Jalen mcmillions, who I loved a lot last year, thus calling him mcmillions and not McMillan unhandedly. But it's like third round pick versus a first round pick, and the profiles vastly.

00:57:36
Speaker 3: I don't get it at all.

00:57:36
Speaker 2: I do not understand the jail Like I think I've drafted him in like a couple Tampa Bay stacks just like you know, obviously like injuries get but like he is. I just I don't understand where is he going to find the field? Like they're going to run eleven Kate Otton will be on the field. When is Jalaen mcmill going to find the field unless something's really bad with the Godwin injury, unless one of these guys gets hurt. But even still, you know he'd still be the number three or four option in the pecking order there. So it's it's just a difficult thing.

00:58:04
Speaker 4: For me to drafters have a hard time moving off of touchdowns, and no one had a lot of touchdowns. But I think I'm gonna zoom out and say that's that's Baker, that's this offense. And that's why I love like Buka because he's he's being prized as one of the cheapest first round receivers we've we've seen, and those are just such easy bets because especially for him, I agree, there's a super stable environment, a lot of volatility, gives him a lot of spikes. It's hard not to just be super into too. That stack. The Colts with Daniel Jones being the pastor has been a lot more interesting, especially with Pittman being still so cheap. You know, it's just like target dominant guy Adie Mitchell could step up. Sounds like he's had a pretty good you know, early camp, which is always a good sign, so it's you know really and then Vegas, like I if the market is like outside of Bowers and Jenti, they're like, ah, the pace alone can make this just super fruitful for fantasy points, and their playoff schedule is super nice.

00:58:57
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love those last two callouts. The Colts, I've I've definitely with just like the vibes around Anthony Richardson, Like we don't want Anthony Richardson to start for fantasy purposes, right, and so the general vibes are not there. The Josh Downs stuff has been like everyone loves Josh Downs, Like, we get it, like he's good. I love him as a prospect. I get it like he's a very very good player.

00:59:19
Speaker 3: Look at his first downs per route run, all that good stuff.

00:59:21
Speaker 2: But the wild thing is that Michael Pittman has just been completely forgotten about. I actually we did the Late Round Fantasy Football show last week and we talked about bounce back candidates, and I had Pittman as a bounce back candidate only because, like the dude sees like a twenty three to twenty five percent target share every single year, you know, like getting that on a full PPR platform like.

00:59:40
Speaker 3: This, it's a pretty easy click.

00:59:42
Speaker 2: And then I've aighty Mitchell given that he goes in like the final rounds, I'm just clicking him even if I don't have Colts, like just just as a player to add if I need a wide receiver who has a little bit of upside just from a profile standpoint. So I like that call out, and then the Vegas call out I like a lot too real quick, how are you handling tight ends this year? And then are are there any late round tight ends, because I think that's a place where people will probably need some help cluing myself.

01:00:06
Speaker 3: Are there any late round tight ends that you really like?

01:00:09
Speaker 2: Yeah?

01:00:09
Speaker 4: I do love punting tight end because I just I love mining for gold and you're gonna pull up a lot of crap, but every once in a while you pull up a gym, you know, Bride Hear two Hunter Henry always underval.

01:00:22
Speaker 3: Way back in the day.

01:00:23
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. It's these wild like a titan only needs to score touchdowns to matter, right, So if you just get the guy that scores a lot of touchdowns, So like late round guys, Juwan is everyone's favorite shout. I've started coming around to J. T. Sanders just because with the tremble injury news, it sounds like Sanders is from the coaching perspective based on the comments, more live to step into a full time role, and if the offense isn't awful and he's full time role, it's stronger than some of these other tight ends. Even a few rounds earlier. I would love to be all in on Arroyo in Seattle, but until Fant is cut, and if he's not, it just kind of like l A too, Like I want an l a tight ends, you know, to pair with Herbert, but these might be just rotationary guys, so like I might stack him just to try to hunt for the touchdown. But it seems like more like, you know, Sanders, Juwan Chigg and even Higbee could just be full time tight ends on good to great offenses that we're just not interested in because there's young guys nearby, or we just decided, you know, the offense doesn't matter. Higbee, you know, I think is I'm ready to go all in as like the the you know, he's running all the routes, he's on a good offense. Like I don't need much more froman that I know that the offense loves. I know that they love Ferguson, but they loved Quorum last year. They can love guys and the comments take them. Yeah, they seem the Kate Higby's our guy until he's not, and there's risk that he's not there guy at the end of the season. But I'd say a guy that was came back from ACL at his age and then was just put back into the offense full time and the coaching staff was like, oh, thank god, we could finally run eleven personnel with confidence because he's back last year in the playoffs is a pretty strong signal that, like Ferguson's, I think is there for the development and if we can get one last Ryan out of Higbee's just cast some touchdowns seems fun.

01:02:14
Speaker 2: Are you in or out on sort of the the high floor boring tight ends late the guys that popp to mind, You know, Hunter Henry is probably I think Hunter Henry is one of the easiest values, but part of that's because I've just been drafting a lot of Drake may too, so it's just like an easy stack.

01:02:27
Speaker 3: But let's forget him.

01:02:29
Speaker 2: Like two that popped mine are like a Pat Fryarmouth who's kind of above some of the tight ends that you talked about, And then like Dalton Schultz right who those guys will not do it for me, especially Schultz in season long, Like I will never draft Dalton Schultz in season long. But are they at least semi attractive in this kind of environment or would you still just say, hey, I'll wait a few rounds and I'll probably get just as much of a ceiling out of some of these dart throws that are that are more true dark throws.

01:02:56
Speaker 4: I'm more willing to push it just because I think the fall off at like running back or receiver, even quarterback in those ranges is way steeper than a tight end. And Schultz I have a hard time disagreeing as a Houston native, this team has tried to relegate and phase him out so many times, and only injuries to the tight end two and three are keeping them from doing that. So I'm really only taking those guys if it's the stack and just looking for touchdown like stacking the touchdowns. If not, I have zero interest because yeah, I don't think that they present any higher of a floor or ceiling really for my needs. Because if I'm punting tight end, I'm taking three or four trying not to take four. But if I'm taking a lot of numbers, I'd rather shoot for much higher upside for touchdown spikes and you know, passyard spikes than I am. Like, I'm not looking for safety. I'm not right tight end. I'll take a zero at tight end. Tight end usually scores five, so it's like I'd rather outscore everybody else everywhere else. And if I'm if the Titan tint in my lineup, I'd like it to be he as a top ten, top five tight end, so I have very little. I don't think any big wins come from chasing safety late unless you just absolutely need it, and I try not to get in those spots.

01:04:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, before I let you go, give me your favorite values on DK right now.

01:04:11
Speaker 3: You can give me eight, you can give me one. I don't care. Just give me. Give me some of your favorites.

01:04:15
Speaker 4: Well, we mentioned several in like Pittman and Strange and Spears and Tee Law and White, So I will just say that, like I think two that I've yet to really hear Tucker Kraft. We just keep hearing more and more good stuff about him in Green Bay he keeps falling. And a guy that just has really great YAK and a really good offense that could take a step forward with them all being healthy and just a more efficient unit, especially at tight end. I think presents it like this is the type of breakout we see, like a young guy who's really athletic, and if he just gets more more pass work, you know we're golden. And it already looked like he took the full time role from a snapshare perspective. So if the market is afraid of Luke Musgrave, I'm gonna have a hard time not being all in on the craft Mac and she's man himself, and I will just say, like first round quarterback, you know, Jackson Dart in New York, tough schedule, really appealing, you know, vertical passing and scrambling ability from the mobile perspective. As guys like Daniel Jones get more expensive, I'm gonna go looking for other guys. And I don't really like Tyler Shuck and I don't like what that quote unquote offers me because I think Jackson Dart offers me much more. We're talking about the money weeks in Best Ball, right and true ceilings, so the you know, those have been kind of my priority to mixing mental late.

01:05:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, love those picks. Tyler. This was awesome.

01:05:38
Speaker 2: Really enjoy the conversation. Let everyone know what you're working on where they can find you.

01:05:41
Speaker 3: All that good stuff.

01:05:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, So over on YouTube, I'm with Tom and rich Over on the Fantasy Sanctuary doing Best Ball, Redraft, Dynasty, all that good stuff weekly, you know, Monday live shows. We've got a lot of awesome stuff going on over there. You know, I do some basketball streams with my buds over on the Tifle Tower terrible name. Don't don't at me.

01:06:01
Speaker 3: It's great.

01:06:02
Speaker 4: But if you like, if you like always sunny type of chaos and fantasy football, go find us over there. We're having a lot of fun and uh and yeah, I'm I'm EMO Underscore Underscore Cowboy on Twitter. If you just want some blunt honesty and some memes and jokes. Uh you know, I'm I'm a I'm a weird follow, so come at your own discretion. But uh no, we have a good time.

01:06:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, No, you're a great follow.

01:06:26
Speaker 2: Everyone should definitely check Tyler out over on Twitter. Like you said at Emo Underscore Underscore Cowboy, I'm on Twitter at Late Round QB. Make sure you guys are checking out the Late Round Draft Guide. It will be available the launch in just a couple of weeks, which is frightening but exciting at the same time, so check it out over on Lateround dot com.

01:06:46
Speaker 3: Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.