NFL Week 18 Picks with Cynthia Frelund | Capitalizing on Teams Resting Starters

00:00:04
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where all good things let's come to an end. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast there, and I'm not referring to twenty twenty five.

00:00:15
Speaker 2: Happy New Year, by the way to everyone listening.

00:00:18
Speaker 1: I'm not talking even about this pick show because we're going straight through the playoffs.

00:00:22
Speaker 2: I'm talking about what was the greatest streak in sports.

00:00:25
Speaker 1: I have twelve straight winning weeks on this show, picking only three games a week against the spread, and it all came crashing down at the hands of Kirk Cousins and John Robinson and that Falcons team.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: So I went one and too.

00:00:38
Speaker 1: I'm still very happy thirty two and nineteen on the season, and most importantly, Cynthia is coming off an undefeated week.

00:00:45
Speaker 3: Here we go.

00:00:46
Speaker 1: You're gonna be hot going into the playoffs. Welcome Cynthia Freeland. Thanks you ready for a final week. This is I think a weedy trickster week. I think it's a week of opportunity. I'm glad the NFL does not let us actually pick these games and put our money behind it, but I do think it's a week where you kind of can understand the motivations of different team and take advantage of some crazy lines. It's a very difficult week for Vegas to set these lines, wouldn't you agree?

00:01:17
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, but those buildings are much bigger than anything in my brain. All then anything we have, well, this building is beautiful, but we don't own it, so you know, yeah, No, I just think it's it's a wonky week because even if someone's playing, does that mean they're playing the full game? Does it mean they're playing for the first quarter?

00:01:35
Speaker 2: Right?

00:01:36
Speaker 4: I mean once they see certain things that I don't know. So you just have to be mindful of what you're doing, don't be a djon.

00:01:42
Speaker 1: So I think at the end, I might even run through where we're at now, like where I think if people are curious who's resting, who's not, But why don't we go through a three pick each because we'll naturally hit upon some of these situations. Now, last week, if I was a spiteful man, I could remember that. Remember I was decided in between two games, and you took the Patriots away from me, and then then they were up twenty one nothing in about seven minutes, and I was thinking, oh, that would have been an easy money. And then and then I got my ls. So I'm giving you the first pick here. Hey, Cynthia, despite that small little problem that I had with you.

00:02:15
Speaker 3: Last week, if you could have taken it, I could have.

00:02:18
Speaker 2: I regret it.

00:02:19
Speaker 3: No, no one's saying that you're not.

00:02:21
Speaker 4: We can double up. We can double up if you're right. I did not say you couldn't take it.

00:02:26
Speaker 2: No, I'm I'm blaming.

00:02:27
Speaker 1: I'm hitting now and I'm not taking responsibility. That's a bad job by me. Okay, you go first, all.

00:02:32
Speaker 4: Right, great, I want to look at I think that the uh, the Denver and the Chargers. I think Denver it's a it's a lofty number at twelve and a half. But the Broncos they want to secure the one. I'm looking for people who have something to play for, and Denver has. The thing to play for is the fact that they get the one seed if they win, period full stop.

00:02:57
Speaker 2: Yep.

00:02:58
Speaker 4: I mean they also get it if like other teams lose, like if the the Jags and the Page. But like, let's not rely on that, especially now that we know that the Chargers they are not playing their starters.

00:03:09
Speaker 3: It's going to be Trey Lance.

00:03:10
Speaker 4: No shade on Trey Lance, But I believe that this is a Denver defense and a Denver offense that's going to be looking ahead and saying, all right, we need to get on track really show like get good reps because conceivably next.

00:03:21
Speaker 3: Week would be their rest.

00:03:23
Speaker 4: So I don't think it's two weeks of rest for these guys. You know, the rust starts to come in there.

00:03:28
Speaker 1: I think it could be a three hour celebration. I'm totally with you. I like a lot of games this week, so I might throw an extra one in at the end, but I think, learning my lesson from last week, I'm just gonna go with you on Denver and Chargers too, because that is definitely one of my top two I have two I really like.

00:03:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's similar that I really like.

00:03:49
Speaker 1: It's similar in terms of motivation, and we had a situation last season that was almost identical this Now. Denver needed to win in Week eighteen to get into the playoffs. But do you remember who they faced off against in Week eighteen? It was the Kings City Chiefs who were resting. The final score was thirty eight to nothing, and I just think Sean Payton, coming off of a couple wonky weeks, to use the word that you used on this week's game debut. Everyone check us out on NFL Network's going to be playing all week Friday night Saturday morning. You can also find that on YouTube. They just call it game Picks. You can also find Cynthia Frielan on YouTube. I always say go subscribe to her channel and check out numbers game. I just think this is a team in Denver that is going to swarm. This was going to be a difficult matchup for the Chargers anyways, because of their offensive line, and the Broncos are looking for that team sack record. They're wanting to pad their numbers. There's incentives. I think teams just love a situation like this, and I think it could be incredibly one way traffic where it's like twenty four to nothing at halftime or something like that. All Right, so we agree on Denver, we have the same first pick. We haven't done that a lot this season, but in this weird week, I don't want to get too cute. What is your second pick?

00:05:10
Speaker 4: I'll let you go first because I can't remember. I mean, I remember your who you have winning. I know where we're different, but I can't remember which one you kind of like the most.

00:05:18
Speaker 1: Okay, the other one that I like the most. As we're taping this, we're not confirmed. But logically, again, I think the Viking Packers are a situation that people who are into this sort of thing can take advantage of. We have it at six and a half right now for the Vikings. They are favored by that much because the line is assuming that the Packers are not going to play their starters. Matt Lafleur has set it without saying.

00:05:44
Speaker 3: I believe what he said was he's not going to tell.

00:05:47
Speaker 4: Yes, he's been close to the vest, but early in the week it means yeah, not playing.

00:05:52
Speaker 3: Yes, they're locked into the seventh seed. Why why they can't?

00:05:55
Speaker 4: They can't do anything but harm their chances by getting someone hurt.

00:05:59
Speaker 1: And they have a lot of banged up important players Yosh Jacobs, Jordan Love certainly some of the key defenders on defense. You can only sit so many. I get all that. The big thing for me is we might not know until game time who's starting at quarterback, but I feel pretty good that it's gonna be Clayton Tune, not Malik Willis, Because to me, if you're putting out your backups and not really trying to win this game, you might as well go whole hog and keep your backup quarterback healthy because you don't know what's up with Jordan Love. He's coming off of a concussion. Malik Willis also has an injury right now.

00:06:33
Speaker 3: Yep, his is a shoulder, not a concussion.

00:06:34
Speaker 1: And Minnesota's defense, let's be real, it's playing better than any defense in the entire league. If the Packers were playing all their starters, and it sounds like JJ McCarthy might come back, which I think is an upgrade for them over Max Brosber, don't you think Minnesota would have a chance to win this game straight up?

00:06:51
Speaker 2: Anyways?

00:06:51
Speaker 1: At home the home field advantage, like against the Packers' starters. I kind of think I would take the Vikings in this game the way these two teams are playing. So all of that is to say I love just six and a half points. I think they went by a lot.

00:07:03
Speaker 4: I mean, I feel like this one could be six to one half a dozen of another. I agree with everything that you said, but I feel like something stupid could happen too, because none of this stuff matters, So like something stupid where like Packers pick six with some yeah corner that hasn't played it.

00:07:20
Speaker 3: Whatever. I just feel like something I don't know. A lot of these games. I feel like a lot of stupid stuff could happen.

00:07:25
Speaker 1: Obviously, I'm influenced by the Christmas Day game, but the crowd was so amped for that game, and it's a division matchup, and what really is selling me is some of the soft stuff you can't put into the model. It was Harrison Smith after the game saying I've never been a part of a better performance than this, And if you go look at what they've done in the last eight weeks something like that, they haven't given up a passing touchdown.

00:07:51
Speaker 2: He said.

00:07:51
Speaker 1: This defense, which is an older group, maybe Brian Flores is leaving, maybe Harrison Smith is leaving. It's a lot of guys who have been there together and they're having fun playing ball right now. This feels kind of like a last fun Like what could be more fun than just beating down on an overmatch Packers team.

00:08:08
Speaker 2: I just it just makes a lot of thunse.

00:08:10
Speaker 3: I'm with you, I'm with you, but it's just not one of my favorite ones.

00:08:13
Speaker 2: Okay, what's your second pick?

00:08:14
Speaker 3: The Rams?

00:08:15
Speaker 4: Okay, Sean McVay says that the starters will at least play.

00:08:19
Speaker 3: I think he was a little I'm not mad.

00:08:22
Speaker 4: I'm just disappointed right about what happened on Monday night against Atlanta. I think, you know, I don't care. It was it seven and a half. I understand that there's like a hook involved.

00:08:33
Speaker 3: I don't care.

00:08:34
Speaker 4: The Arizona Cardinals are so banged up their defense. I feel like it might be easier to make a list of who's playing than who's not playing. From who the projected starters were the head ahead of the season.

00:08:44
Speaker 3: I don't think Marvin.

00:08:45
Speaker 4: Harrison Junior's playing, like yeah, I think there's a lot of missing pieces, and I think the Cardinals are kind of like, okay, next, I mean Jacoby Brissett, notwithstanding he's been great, saying with Trey McBride, like, there's a lot of great things. But I'm not saying that they are punting on the whole season. I'm just saying that I don't thinking this matchup. I think that the Rams need to dial in. They're not getting a buye. You know, they're not gonna get They're not getting home field. They got to dial in. That was not the loss they wanted Matthew Stafford has not. He's thrown like seven interceptions all season long, so these are weird stuff.

00:09:14
Speaker 3: They need to get the weirds out.

00:09:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think they want Stafford to go into the playoffs with the positive drives.

00:09:21
Speaker 2: And I think the defense.

00:09:22
Speaker 1: Again, there's only so many players you can sit anyways, but I think they want to get the defense, yep, on track and this Cardinals team has been phoning it in for a while. Okay, now we're to the third pick, and I really I love those first two picks, and I like a lot of others, but I just don't love them.

00:09:40
Speaker 2: So maybe I'll just go through some of the options.

00:09:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think my top options and I'll give my like extra picks at the end. My top options would be the Bills favored only by a touchdown in the final game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, despite the fact we would expect to see Mitchell Trubisky and some of the backups and then Josh Allen will be starting. But they're playing the yet the emotions and the way that I think they're.

00:10:03
Speaker 2: Gonna want to start with Josh Allen, that's one.

00:10:05
Speaker 3: I would go with.

00:10:05
Speaker 2: That one.

00:10:06
Speaker 1: Okay, the other two are the two and AFC South teams. Again, we're taking clear motivations, yep, and I'm taking you know, I kind of like the Jags and Texans as heavy favorites to cover their numbers.

00:10:19
Speaker 2: Now. Are the Texans a team that you can trust to cover ten and a half at home against Riley Leonard? I think they are.

00:10:27
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are playing for their division championship against a really bad Titans one. I like that a lot too. But you said to go with the Bills. I think I will. I think you helped get over the top.

00:10:38
Speaker 4: I mean, look, I'm with you on all three. I agree with your logic on all three. But I just don't think like the Bills, this is it at an iconic stadium, Like they're moving to their parking lot. Their whole new stadium is ready next season, but this is it. So you're telling me that they don't have some like I don't know you said Ray Davis on game rebut I'm with you on that some crazy play that's stupid to alignment, like maybe Dion Dawkins scores a touchdown for goodness, something like that that like means something to them against a Jets team where has been totally deflated since like a while back.

00:11:15
Speaker 3: I just feel like, I'm totally with you.

00:11:18
Speaker 4: I don't and I think that number is very achievable to Like, if that number we're twelve and a half, I might feel different because maybe they just kind of cover at the end, But the number is tasty enough where I just think the Bill they want to go out on that high note there.

00:11:33
Speaker 3: They also really want to get.

00:11:35
Speaker 4: Everyone wants the coveted five seed, both AFC NFC. That five seed is like such an advantage because both of the four seeds seem very lackluster this year in the NFC South and of course the AFC North. So the Bills are like, we want that five seed, so they're really motivated to it. They're not gonna in any way leave this one to chance. That's my I agree.

00:11:57
Speaker 1: The only thing that's tricky there is just the slight hesitation about motivation and going all out. Whereas you know, the Jaguars are doing everything that they need to do to go beat the Titans.

00:12:09
Speaker 3: But like, do they beat them by twelve and a half.

00:12:11
Speaker 1: I think they will, and that's why I like them all. I will go with the Bills. I mean, I don't know.

00:12:15
Speaker 3: Don't let me talk you into it.

00:12:17
Speaker 2: What do you like as your third pick?

00:12:19
Speaker 3: I mean I like all of those. Yeah, I like. I mean, I'll go with whichever one you don't like.

00:12:23
Speaker 4: I think the Houston number against Indianapolis where Philip Rivers is like in the building helping out.

00:12:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's the best.

00:12:31
Speaker 4: Ley Leonard like like, I mean, it just feels like perhaps you're conceding the like ten and a half in that situation, feels pretty solid.

00:12:42
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:12:43
Speaker 1: Everyone gave Riley Leonard a nice pat on the back for coming in a few weeks back and looking Okay, I think it's a little different starting the game against Housy in the Houston talk about a game that's gonna be a party. All right, You want to pick the Texans as your third one? Yeah, okay, I mean unless you really want to. I like all of them. I'll take everyone.

00:13:03
Speaker 2: I like them all too. I gotta say in the end, the.

00:13:06
Speaker 4: Only other one that I think it's worth considering to be on the list would be Philadelphia to cover three and a half points.

00:13:11
Speaker 2: Interesting, okay, with their backup. I agree with you. That's what I had.

00:13:14
Speaker 1: I think Tanner McKee and their backups are good enough. I gotta say, I gotta go with my gut. My gut likes the Jags even more than the Bills.

00:13:21
Speaker 3: So that's I'll go with the I'll switch to the Bills.

00:13:24
Speaker 1: Okay, So everyone keeping track, you can look, you can like them all. We're giving them, we're giving away. You don't have to just pick three games at home. You can choose whatever you want. But for my official picks, we're gonna both go in on the Broncos minus twelve and a half to beat the Chargers backups. I'm taking the Vikings minus six and a half. And in the end, I kind of just my gut, I like the Jags minus twelve and a half a little more than the Bills, but I really like the Bills.

00:13:52
Speaker 3: Two, I'm doing the Bills.

00:13:53
Speaker 1: You have the Bills minus seven, you have the Rams, and then you have the Broncos. What a great twenty twenty five we showing.

00:14:01
Speaker 3: For having me?

00:14:01
Speaker 2: Oh, I mean, look, we got we got the playoffs to go.

00:14:04
Speaker 4: I know, but I still am grateful for twenty twenty five. Though you're you're people. I always say this, like you are the hardest person, working person, in the building. You're here every freaking day, and it's this is a tough year, as a challenging year around here, and you've been crushing it.

00:14:18
Speaker 1: So only only because you're back at the at the house running your computer models. You're not here, but you're doing that in numbers game and everything else. But yeah, we're gonna keep it going. And I like that Cynthia's coming off an undefeated three and zero week, and uh, I kind of like uh in the normal games too, kind of like the Bears. I kind of like the Dolphins that cover ten and a half, kind of like the Browns, but those are those are just.

00:14:41
Speaker 2: I feel little, I feel as we.

00:14:43
Speaker 4: I like like sure, but like also unsure, you know what I mean, Like just because stupid stuff happens in games and characters, like does Miles Garrett get the record?

00:14:57
Speaker 3: Gosh?

00:14:57
Speaker 4: I hope so yes, Like I hope they sell out to make sure he gets that right. No, I don't want Joe Burder get hit, don't get me wrong, but like, just give him the dang record.

00:15:05
Speaker 1: I saw that line and I was like, do I trust the Cincinna. I know they've been playing well lately? Do I trust the Cincinnati Bengals.

00:15:12
Speaker 2: In the twenty five season.

00:15:13
Speaker 1: To be favored by seven and a half when you're going up against one of the best defense league, I really don't. So the Browns are just one a little extra. But we have our three official picks locked in. We locked splowdact.

00:15:24
Speaker 4: Next week sounds good and the best week of all of the season.

00:15:28
Speaker 3: I feel like WOWD Week.

00:15:30
Speaker 2: I do too, because it's over three days.

00:15:32
Speaker 1: You get that Monday night little extra, you get the three games on Sunday and an underdog could win. But you know what, we got a great weekend of football ahead. The Saturday games. Will be recapping it all live on YouTube on Sunday night.

00:15:46
Speaker 2: Join us there.