Supreme Court Takes Up Trump Immunity; New Presidential Poll

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:12.800 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:15.960 And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:19.520 We begin with another historic case coming to the Supreme Court. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.800 The justices have agreed to rule on former President Donald 0:00:22.840 --> 0:00:26.680 Trump's claim of immunity. Bloomberg z Ed Baxter has the story. 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.560 This case will involve the potential immunity from criminal prosecution 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.839 and will be historic. It will determine whether Trump will 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:37.360 stand trial for the twenty twenty election interference charges. The 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.360 ruling also puts on hold the Washington d C. Election 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:44.479 interference trial, which was due to start next week. Trump 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.040 has been pushing to put off any trials until after 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.920 the election. The court says we'll hear arguments the week 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.720 of April twenty second, when the Court will rule. As 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:55.720 a question though it usually hands down its decisions at 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:58.000 the end of its term in late June, but it 0:00:58.040 --> 0:00:59.360 could expedite things. 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:03.400 Bloomberg Radio All right, ed, thanks well. In another legal 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:06.800 battle involving the former president, an Illinois judge has barred 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.560 Donald Trump from appearing on the Republican presidential primary ballot 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:12.720 that marks the third state to umpose such a ban 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.319 on the former president for his role in the insurrection 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:17.640 at the US Capitol on January sixth. 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.600 Now, this is just breaking on the Bloomberg Karen a 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:23.960 new poll on the presidential election, it appears even those 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:27.119 voters who support President Biden are concerned that he may 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:30.360 be too old for the job. Bloomberg's Amy Morris reports 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:31.120 from Washington. 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.720 The Bloomberg News Morning Console poll find swing state voters 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:38.800 across nearly every major demographic group describe President Biden as 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:41.280 too old. Even among those who say they plan to 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.400 vote for Biden in November, seven to ten are concerned 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:47.920 about his age. Almost half of respondents say Republican rival 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.480 Donald Trump is too old. But Trump is also facing 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:54.240 his own vulnerabilities, with most saying the GOP front runner 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:57.080 is dangerous. As many as half of swing state voters 0:01:57.200 --> 0:01:59.080 say they would not vote for Donald Trump if he's 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:02.160 convicted in a criminal case. And while the economy remains 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.360 the top issue amongst swing state voters, more are starting 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.720 to turn their attention to border security. In Washington, Amy 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:10.080 Moore as Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.000 Right, Amy, thanks, So, President Biden is turning his attention 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:15.760 to the border today, He'll be in Brownsville, Texas, to 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.960 meet with border patrol agents and law enforcement. On the 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:22.600 same day, former President Trump plans to visit Eagle Pass, Texas, 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:25.480 the epicenter of the recent migrants spike, more than three 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.920 hundred miles away. Larry Sabado with the University of Virginia 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:32.640 Center for Politics says President Biden knows the border issue 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:34.000 is a political weak spot. 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.920 The Democrats haven't focused enough on the border, and so 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.880 Biden is going to have to make his case at 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:44.240 the border repeatedly. And he's got a new weapon to 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:48.640 use the fact that House Republicans killed the bipartisan bill 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:51.560 that would have addressed most of their concerns, and. 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.760 The University of Virginia's Larry Sabado says the President is 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.519 likely to use the trip to pressure lawmakers to pass 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:58.960 that by partisan. 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:02.080 Senate bills in the Senate. Meanwhile, Karen are going to 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:04.079 have to decide just how loyal they want their next 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:07.519 leader to be to Donald Trump. Mitch McConnell is stepping 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.960 away from leadership after the November election. He hinted at 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.360 the fight to come in his announcement. 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:18.280 Believe me, I know the politics within my party at 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:24.520 this particular moment in time. I have many faults, mister, 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:26.480 understanding politics is not. 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:29.840 One of Leader mcconnald's most likely successors are known as 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:32.960 the Three Johns. John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornon 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:36.960 of Texas, and John Barrosso of Wyoming. Unlike McConnell, all 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:40.200 three have endorsed former President Trump, though Thoon held out 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:41.160 till just this week. 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:44.840 Well Nathan, another partial government shutdown is a step closer 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:48.120 to being averted. Congressional leaders struck a last minute deal 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.440 to provide one more week of funding after this Saturday's 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.280 deadline and keep parts of the government funded through the 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.800 end of September. Other agencies, including the Defense and Homeland 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:00.720 Security departments, would still face a shutdown on deadline of 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:05.680 March twenty third. Hardline Republicans, including South Carolina Congressman Ralph Norman, 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:07.600 are already blasting the deal. 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:09.680 American people deserve better than this. 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:14.080 You and ron A Peanuts stand over how the Congress 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.360 is trying to do the national budget. 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:19.719 And Republican Congressman Ralph Norman tells Bloomberg's balance of power 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:23.719 he'll vote against another stopgap. Speaker Mike Johnson plans to 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:26.520 bring the one week extension to the House floor. Today. 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.800 Turning to the markets and the economy now, Karen, Futures 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.279 are headed lower the head of a key report closely 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:35.919 watched by the FED, the core PCE deflator, the Fed's 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.440 preferred gage of inflation, is due out at eight thirty 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:40.840 am Wall Street Time. Let's get a preview now from 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:42.120 Bloomberg's Michael McKee. 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:45.000 Markets have finally come into alignment with the FED betting 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:48.080 on three rate cuts this year. That's after consumer and 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:51.520 producer price inflation came in hotter than expected in January, 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.800 suggesting the central bank needs to keep the economy's breaks on. 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:58.880 Today we get the fed's primary inflation indicator, personal consumption 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:04.120 prices more on what people actually are buying each month. Unfortunately, 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.360 it's forecast to echo the other price numbers, rising more 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.440 than expected for January. Some analysts think it could rise 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:13.800 as much as half a percent after increasing just seventeen 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:17.039 basis points last month. That kind of result may increase 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:21.200 speculation Fed officials might adjust their own rate forecast at 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:23.520 their March meeting. Michael mckae, Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.680 All right, Mike, thanks well, as we await the PCE 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:30.080 deflator data on email regarding another economic report is causing 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:32.840 confusion on Wall Street. We get the latest from Bloomberg's 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:33.440 John Tucker. 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:36.040 John, all right, thanks Karen. The number crunchers at the 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:38.560 Labor Department sent out an email to a group of 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:42.360 super users and then trying to retract it. It suggested 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.520 a surgeon owner's equivalent rant that showed up in the 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:49.440 CPI was caused by adjustment to how components of the 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:52.800 index are weighted. The adjusted weights could keep ratings on 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.640 rents elevated through the first half of the year. The 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:58.840 pop and owner's equivalent rent that was a major factor 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.840 behind the strength of the over old January CPI figure. 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.599 That's surprised just about everybody. Those higher than expected CPI 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:08.520 numbers have been cited by Federal Reserve officials as a 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:12.640 reason to delay interest rate cuts. John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.559 Now more Fed officials are saying the future of rates 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.920 depends on incoming economic data. New York Fed President John 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:21.720 Williams says the rate path will follow the numbers rather 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:22.440 than the calendar. 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:25.160 Back in December, my colleagues and I put out what 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:28.280 we call projections or forecasts, and the median was for 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:31.960 three rate cuts this year in twenty twenty four. Well, 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:33.040 we're data dependent. 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:35.120 We're go watch the data. I'm going to watch the data. 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:37.800 A sign of success to me is that, you know, 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:41.080 with inflation coming down and the economy so strong, that 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.720 we can be thinking about doing that, I would say 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:44.520 later this year. 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.039 And those thoughts from New York Fed President John Williams 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:50.719 were echoed by Boston Susan Collins and Atlanta's Rafael Bostek. 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:53.599 Well, let's check out some stocks on the move, Nathan, 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.240 as we close out the trading month. Shares a Snowflake, 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:59.840 plunging twenty three percent, the software maker delivering a disappointing 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.760 sales forecast and announcing that chief executive Frank A. Saluteman 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:06.960 is stepping down from the role. Investors are trimming shares 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:10.600 of ww International, the owner of weight Watchers, says Oprah 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:12.880 Winfrey is going to leave the board, and that stock 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:15.280 is down twenty two and a half percent. Shares of 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:18.320 AMC Entertainment down almost eight percent, the world's largest theater 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:21.440 chain reporting fourth quarter earnings that fell short of Wall 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:22.280 Street estimates. 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:27.040 Now the look at some of the other stories making 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:28.920 news in New York and around the world. We bring 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.760 in Bloomberg's Michael Park. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:35.440 The series of wildfires in Texas covers an area larger 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:38.800 than the state of Rhode Island. The explosive growth of 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:42.440 the second largest wildfire in the state's history slowed as 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:46.440 winds and temperatures dipped, but the massive blaze was still untamed. 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.560 The Smokehouse fire is the largest of several major fires 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:54.680 burning in the rural Panhandle section of the state, destroying homes, ranches, 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:58.320 and livestock. One fire swept through the town of Canadian. 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:02.400 Nim Kid is with the Texas Emergency Management Division. 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.840 And we don't want people going back if the evacuation 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.000 orders are still in place. I believe this fire will 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:09.880 grow before it gets fully contained. 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:13.160 Yes, so far, and eighty three year old grandmother is 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:17.000 the only confirmed death. Just today, after dozens of migrants 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:19.960 were discovered living in the basement of a Queen's furniture store, 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:24.240 more migrants were found at another furniture store in the Bronx. 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:27.680 The owner of the Bronx store on East Kingbridge Road 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:31.520 is apparently the same owner of the Queen store. Yesterday, 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:35.600 authority said it was discovered dozens of West African migrants 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.960 paid deposits and three hundred dollars a month to stay 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:43.040 in the illegal tiny retail space. New York City Mayor 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:47.120 Eric Adams announced the release of the Green Economy Action Plan. 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:50.040 The mayor says it's a first of its kind plan 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.040 that lays out a road map to invest in jobs 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:56.400 and sectors that will help the city combat climate change. 0:08:56.520 --> 0:09:00.000 Adams made the announcement yesterday when the city had unseasonable 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:01.080 mild temperatures. 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:05.360 Climate change is real. We see it every time we 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:09.480 see the coastal storms. And let's be clear, we are 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.840 in February and you can go outside without a jacket on. 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:18.480 About four hundred thousand projected green collar jobs are expected 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:21.680 in this city by twenty forty. The Commerce Department says 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.840 the US will investigate potential data and cybersecurity risks posed 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:30.600 by Chinese electric vehicles and other Internet connected cars. That's 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:35.080 according to an administration official who requested anonymity. Comedian and 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:38.400 actor Richard Lewis has died. Lewis was well known as 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:41.880 a stand up comic and actor, but probably most notable 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.439 for playing a fictional version of himself on HBO's curb 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:46.400 your enthusiasm. 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:48.160 Well, I have better news for you. 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:49.200 I'm leaving you in my will. 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:50.600 I'm tweaking it and you're in it. 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:51.920 Don't do that. 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:52.560 It's done. 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:53.080 You're in. 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:53.719 I don't want to be. 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:55.200 I have money, I don't need it. 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:56.360 Give it to someone who needs it. 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:56.839 When I die. 0:09:56.840 --> 0:09:58.600 I want you to know how much I care about you. 0:09:58.679 --> 0:09:59.360 I'm not going to keep it. 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:01.080 I'm going to give it my best friend. 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:01.679 You're getting it. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.040 According to his publicist, Richard Lewis died peacefully at a 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:07.480 home in Los Angeles after suffering a heart attack at 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:10.280 age seventy six. Global News twenty four hours a day 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:13.079 and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now, Michael Barr, 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:14.120 this is Bloomberg Natan. 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:21.680 Okay, Michael, thank you. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:23.880 up DA. Good morning, chun Stasher. 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.720 Good morning naighth and check of the NHL standings right 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:29.320 now finds that no team has more points then the Rangers. 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:30.920 At the Garden, they made it eleven wins the last 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.160 twelve games. They beat the only team that has beaten 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:35.640 them during that time. Three nights after the Rangers lost 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.439 in Columbus, they beat the Blue Jackets four to one. 0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:40.760 Pair of goals for our Timmy Panarin against his old team, 0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:44.319 Thirty saves for Igor chess Terkin Rangers fortieth win and 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:47.080 in half of them chess Drkin is allowed no more 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.719 than two goals. At MSG tonight, it's the banged up 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:53.079 and slumping Nicks against the Warriors. Always a hot ticket 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:54.560 when Steph Curry comes to town. 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:55.240 Battle of La. 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:57.920 Last night, the Lakers trailed the Clippers by twenty one. 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.160 In the fourth quarter, Lebron James brought the Lakers back 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:04.640 to victory. He outscored the Clippers by himself in the fourth. 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:06.600 Chicago be Cleveland of double overtime. 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:07.040 Big E St. 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.240 John's third straight win eighty two sixty nine at Butler. 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:12.920 Seaton Hall lost by twenty one at Creighton, also fifth 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:16.079 rank Marquette won by twenty two, and the acc Duke 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:20.600 beat Louisville Duke Star Centaer Kyle Philapowski did play despite 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:23.760 the knee injury suffered when Wake Forest fans stormed the 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:25.880 court last Saturday, and Port Saint Luisie win for the 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.440 Mets now four and one. Pete a Lonzo homerd so 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:31.760 did Trace Thompson priorady. The second time. One thing seems 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:34.240 certain about the Jets roster in twenty twenty four. It 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:38.160 won't include Zach Wilson. The Jets general manager is Joe Douglass. 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:41.320 I've had a good conversation with his agent, Brian Ariel, 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.640 who we where we are exactly we've given We've given 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.760 them permission to talk to other teams about a trade. 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:52.480 I'm gonna circle back with Brian at some point either 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.440 this week or next week, just to see how those 0:11:54.480 --> 0:12:00.600 conversations go. But other than that, there's nothing else to report. 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:04.080 Jets owner Woody Johnson recently said that Jets made a 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.440 backup quarterback because last season they didn't have one, a 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.560 clear shot at Wilson, who certainly struggled after Aaron Rodgers 0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:11.120 went down. 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:13.080 John Stanshawer Bloomberg Sports d. 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:15.240 Thank you, John. Now, let's get right back to all 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:18.720 that's happening in the nation's capital. Former President Donald Trump's 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:20.760 immunity claims are about to get an airing at the 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:24.040 Supreme Court. Border security is about to take center stage 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:27.040 in the campaign. In a split screen moment for President 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.840 Biden and former President Trump and Mitch McConnell's departure is 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.720 setting up a GOP leadership fight in the Senate. For 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.520 more on all this and more happening in the nation's capital, 0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:39.439 Greg Valier is back with US chief US policy strategist 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:43.400 at AGF Investments. It's difficult to know where to start, Greg, 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.800 but we'll do so. With this Supreme Court decision to 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.400 hear the immunity claims from former President Trump, first off, 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:52.520 were you surprised that the High Court decided to take 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:52.960 this up? 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.280 No, I thought it would come. I think. 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:56.360 So. 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.440 The real angle here, Nathan, is how long this could 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.000 delay the process. I mean, Trump is brilliant at delaying 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.920 and appealing, dragging things out, and I think that this 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:11.200 Supreme Court case could go well into the summer, maybe 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:15.840 into the fall. Could we have an inauguration with these 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.000 legal charges still hanging over Trump? 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:22.040 And to that point, the Supreme Court says it's going 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.080 to hear arguments in late April. Why wait till then? 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.040 Hard to say. I don't know the answer to that, 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:32.440 but I do feel that this is going to go 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:33.840 on for many months. 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.440 Yeah, you mentioned that it could happen right around inauguration time, 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:41.520 that these cases could still be hanging over the former president. 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:45.720 But if the court does rule against former President Trump 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.560 and find that he's not immune to prosecution, it goes 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.800 back I assume to the lower court that does indicated 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.280 that it's going to try this case or at least 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:57.520 try to get it done relatively quickly. So how do 0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:58.840 you see it playing out? 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.800 Well? I think the the wild card here is the 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:06.560 ability of Trump to, if he wins re election, to 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:10.680 get his new attorney general and others to pardon him 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.119 to drop the charges. And I think that is a 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:16.640 threat that you cannot dismiss and. 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:19.320 Something that a lot of voters are going to be 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:23.400 grappling with. I would imagine as this twenty twenty four 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:26.480 campaign goes on. I mean, the former president has managed, 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.240 as you say, to turn his legal troubles to his 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:33.080 political advantage. But if he's facing some serious charges like 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:35.600 the ones that Special Counsel Jack Smith has brought against 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.360 the former president, do you see that dynamic shifting at all. 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:41.800 Well, it's worth noting that Smith was not happy yesterday 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:45.120 at the prospect that this could drag on, and I 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:48.960 think Smith has to be concerned that it could be 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:53.200 October and this trial could still be ongoing. That would 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:57.480 be very unnerving for the US now. 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.800 Of course, there are so many issues at play in 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.080 the race, not the least of which, of the I mean, 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:06.000 for most, for most voters in the polls, is immigration. 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.160 And we're about to have this split screen moment in 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.160 Texas for Biden and Trump at the border. How important 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.760 could today be when it comes to the narrative around 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:15.560 border security? 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:18.120 Oh, on a cenek. I think this is just a 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:23.240 photo op for both of them. You'd love to see 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:27.720 some progress toward reviving the deal that died a few 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:30.040 weeks ago, but I don't see it. I think both 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.960 parties will keep immigration as a political issue for the 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:34.600 fall election. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.920 So you don't think that bipartisan Senate bill gets revived 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:39.800 anytime soon. 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.560 I don't think so. I mean the vehicle, of course, 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:46.960 would be aid to Ukraine, and if you could put 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:50.200 that all together in a deal, you might be able 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.440 to revive it, but it's already failed once in the House. 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:57.160 We'll see about Mike Johnson. He's shown a little bit 0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:01.480 more skilled as a negotiator in the last week or two. 0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:04.040 You know, maybe he can put a deal together, but 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:04.920 I wouldn't bet on it. 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.080 Yeah, a lot of these issues, I would imagine are 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.320 going to come into play as we get closer to 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:12.600 a leadership fight in the Senate. With Mitch McConnell's surprise 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:17.120 announcement that he's stepping down after the November election. Where 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:20.520 do you see this leadership fight going? What could the 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:24.800 next Republican leader look like when it comes to support 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.360 for loyalty to former President Trump? 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.880 Well, ironically, in the Senate there's only a handful of 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:40.040 Republicans who support Trump, and with McConnell leaving, it makes 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.960 things even more difficult for the President. So I think 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:49.560 that within the Senate we're going to see several candidates emerge, 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:53.800 maybe half a dozen, but clearly the torch has been passed. 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.320 I mean, McConnell had a huge influence on US foreign 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:02.880 policy and defense in Ukraine and judicial nominations, and whoever 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:06.200 succeeds him as really big shoes to fill. 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.640 Just quickly, are you ready to make a call on 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.120 who that next leader might be? 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.280 I'd say maybe John Cornyan of Texas as a placeholder. 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:20.040 John Barrasso out Western Wyoming has a chance, and so 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:22.960 does Thon of South Dakota. Although has been very cool 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.960 to Trump. This is going to be a Trump Senate 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:27.120 no question about it. 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:31.919 Okay, Greg Valiere, a comprehensive roundup of all that's happening 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:34.399 in the nation's capital. Greg, thanks again for being with 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:38.720 US chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments. Now we 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:42.239 want to go even deeper on the dynamics driving this 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:46.040 presidential campaign and the results from our latest Bloomberg News 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:50.159 Morning Consult poll of voters in swing states that'll be 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:53.639 key in deciding the twenty twenty four election. For that, 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:57.880 we're joined by Bloomberg National Politics reporter Gregory Cordy and 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:01.040 Greg Just to take a broad view of this poll, 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:04.600 it seems like the choice that most swing state voters 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:09.600 say they have in a likely rematch between President Biden 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.160 and former President Trump is do I choose the guy 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.560 who's too old or the guy who's too dangerous? 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.600 Yeah, that was exactly what came out of this Paul, 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:20.960 as we asked these swing state voters to kind of 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:25.160 tell us which of these two candidates is described by 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:29.400 a number of different characteristics, one of which is too old. 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:35.720 And this poll came in the aftermath of this her 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:40.880 report into President Biden's handling of classified information, in which 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.879 he said he characterized Biden as an elderly man with 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.760 a poor memory, and that really resonated with voters across 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:51.280 every single demographic group. In our poll, and we have 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:55.880 one hundred and five different crosstabs in this poll, every 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:59.200 single one of them said Biden is too old. Eighty 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.000 two percent, we're all and that's just a stunning number 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:04.960 of the Americans who don't agree on much agree on that. 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.120 And then a smaller number, but a significant number, about 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:12.040 fifty two percent say that President former President Trump is 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:17.920 dangerous and so very strong personalities and very strong and 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.720 calcified opinions that Americans have of these two men. 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:26.359 And it gets to sort of the dynamic that I 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:30.040 think we've talked about playing out in this race for 0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:33.200 quite some time, that when it comes to President Biden 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.320 and former President Trump, it seems like most voters have 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:40.200 more negative opinions of these two front runners than positive. 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:45.760 Yeah, and we're seeing really significant numbers of what we 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:48.760 call double haters, people who say they have a negative 0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:52.400 impression of both of these men and not really having 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:56.720 a place to go. We do see that Robert F. 0:19:56.800 --> 0:20:01.879 Kennedy Junior continues to get you a good amount of 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:06.359 support not enough to win or perhaps even make a 0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:10.960 difference in any one state, but there is a third 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.280 party possibility with third party candidates still out there. But 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:18.200 across these seven swing states form President Trump still leads 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:22.160 Biden an average of five percent across all the states, 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:23.560 and in each and every one of them, some are 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:27.880 within the margin of error, some not. But Trump's lead 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:30.399 over Biden has been pretty consistent in every poll that 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:31.800 we've had in the five months so far. 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.360 Yeah, I know, we've talked about some of the issues 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.520 that voters are thinking about as well. In these polls 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:40.280 that we've done over the past several months, we've seen 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:42.840 immigration sort of rise to the top. Is that still 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:43.560 the case now? 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:48.280 Yeah, well not, Immigration hasn't risen quite to the top yet. 0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:50.480 The economy is still the number one issue. It goes 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.000 back to you know what James Carvill said during the 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.879 Bill Quinton's nineteen ninety two campaign. It's the economy, stupid. 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:02.000 It is still the economy. The economy slowly gets better, 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.080 and we're starting to see that. The percentage of Americans 0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:07.720 who say the US economy is on the right track 0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:12.920 has gone up since last October. And that's giving room 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.520 for voters to think about other issues, and the issue 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:19.399 that they're thinking about is the crisis at the southern border. 0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:22.399 We have both Biden and Trump going to the border 0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:26.840 today to two different spots, two urn sixty miles apart, 0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:32.240 which just I think reinforces how salient of an issue 0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:34.560 that both of these men know that that issue is, 0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:36.240 and we're seeing it in our swing states. 0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:39.040 Boone And as far as the horse race goes, just 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:41.400 to get down to the numbers, I think last month 0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:44.919 we'd found that Trump was leading Biden in all seven 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:48.200 swing states that we pull. Has that changed in this 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:49.119 current tally? 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:52.160 That continues to be the case, And I'm just looking 0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:53.719 at these numbers. I'll rat on one off to you. 0:21:54.080 --> 0:21:58.080 Arizona Trump leads by six. Georgia also by six, Michigan 0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:03.240 by two. That's always been a pretty good state for Biden, 0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:05.920 but he's still losing it by two. Nevada Trump leads 0:22:05.960 --> 0:22:10.400 by six, North Carolina Trump leads by nine. In Pennsylvania 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:14.680 he's up by six, and Wisconsin Trump is up by four, 0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:18.440 And so that averages out to a five point lead 0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:21.600 across those seven swing states. And as I say, that's 0:22:21.720 --> 0:22:25.120 been pretty consistent there hasn't been a month where Joe 0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:28.920 Biden has been able to really crack a lead in 0:22:28.960 --> 0:22:30.200 any of those seven swing states. 0:22:31.160 --> 0:22:34.080 This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on 0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.800 the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:22:37.960 --> 0:22:40.720 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:44.480 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:22:44.560 --> 0:22:45.720 get your podcasts. 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.520 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:51.240 am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:22:51.240 --> 0:22:54.119 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.040 Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg 0:22:57.119 --> 0:22:58.800 ninety sixty in San Francisco. 0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:02.320 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:07.840 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. 0:23:07.840 --> 0:23:11.280 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERRIUSXM, 0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:15.640 the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager. 0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:16.600 And I'm Karen Moscow. 0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:19.560 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:22.879 need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak